2026-06-10T11:40:01Z http://oai.repec.org/oai.php

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42222021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El Este de Asia y América Latina han venido divergiendo en varios aspectos durante las últimas tres décadas. En este trabajo se comparan los hábitos de ahorro familiar en dos países de cada región (México, Perú, Tailandia y Taiwán). Hacemos cuatro aportes. En primer lugar, establecemos las primeras comparaciones en cuanto al ahorro entre estas dos regiones al nivel micro, empleando técnicas de cohorte sintética cohort. En segundo lugar, en vez de concentrarnos exclusivamente en el ahorro total de la familia, como se suele hacer en la obra publicada, desagregamos a la población en grupos según su nivel de preparación, para determinar si hay diferencias en el comportamiento de ahorro según la distribución del ingreso. En tercer lugar, construimos predicciones sobre niveles agregados futuros de ahorro familiar, basados en proyecciones demográficas. En cuarto lugar, proporcionamos elementos de juicio que permiten poner a prueba la pertinencia del modelo del ciclo de vida, para explicar las diferencias en cuanto a la conducta de ahorro. Number 4222 2000-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-427&pub_file_name=pubWP-427.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Orazio P. Attanasio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31122021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In recent years, fiscal deficits have been a chronic problem for the central government and moststate governments. In 1997, for instance, the nominal deficit was about 6% of GNP. In thisscenario, both central and local governments have been unable to make the necessaryinfrastructure investments to maintain adequate service levels, a situation that has existed sincethe beginning of the 1980s. For instance, investment in ports in 1993 was less than 15% of thefigure in 1980, while in the railway sector investment fell from US$1. 9 billion in 1980 toUS$214 million in 1993 (Cavalcanti Ferreira, 1996). Number 3112 2001-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-413&pub_file_name=pubR-413.pdf application/pdf FGV-EESP

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31182021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Exchange rates have been central to the course of economic development in Latin America for decades. From the heyday of import substitution in the 1960s to the rapid expansion of foreign debt in the 1970s, from the debt crisis and its troubled aftermath in the 1980s to the rekindling of growth and borrowing in the 1990s, the exchange rate has been crucial to the mix of government policies that has shaped the region. Indeed, many analysts regard exchange rate policy as a major determinant of other economic outcomes, such as adjustment to the oil shocks of the 1970s and the debt crisis of the 1980s (Sachs, 1985). And currency policies have themselves been at the center of some of the regions most prominent economic processes and events, such as liberalizing reforms in the Southern Cone between 1976 and 1982, the Mexican crises of 1982 and 1994, Argentina's adoption of a currency board in 1991, Brazil's 1999 currency crisis, and ongoing discussions of dollarization. Number 3118 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-420&pub_file_name=pubR-420.pdf application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein Jeffry Frieden

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44912021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Financial stability is an important policy objective, since crises are associated with large economic, social and political costs. Promoting stability requires preventing sudden stops in capital flows, which are events in which foreign financing abruptly disappears. This paper contributes to the discussion by providing new theoretical and empirical evidence on the causal connection between lack of exposure to commercial trade and proclivity to sudden stops. On the theoretical front, the paper shows how exposure to trade raises the creditworthiness of countries and reduces the probability of sudden stops. In relatively closed economies, sudden stops (when they occur) are more harmful and thus the option to default on the inherited debt is more attractive. Therefore, conditional on the amount that lenders are willing to loan, decreased exposure to trade increases the likelihood of default. A sudden stop takes place when the borrowers reject the amount that lenders want to loan: they receive no new funding and they concurrently default on the outstanding debt to ease the pain. This proposition is tested using gravity estimates, which are based on countries geographic characteristics, as appropriate instruments for trade. The results indicate that, all else equal, a 10 percentage point decrease in the trade to GDP ratio increases the probability of a sudden stop between 30 percent and 40 percent. The policy implications are unambiguous: increasing the tradable component of a country's GDP will, ceteris paribus, reduce the vulnerability of that country to sudden stops in capital flows. Number 4491 2006-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-588&pub_file_name=pubWP-588.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31412021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents the results of an Inter-American Development Bank Research Network project on Social Exclusion in Latin American and the Caribbean. The object of this project is to document and analyze the extent and consequences of some specific types of social exclusion in Latin America. The project has concentrated on some particular forms of exclusion that are important for the determination of income and thus poverty and income inequality and that are relatively amenable to quantitative analysis. The purposes of the project are also to shed some light on the mechanisms of social exclusion, and to provide some guidance for policies aimed at addressing them. Number 3141 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-445&pub_file_name=pubR-445.pdf application/pdf Jere R. Behrman Alejandro Gaviria Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4592021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper focuses on two research problems. The first is to measure the direct impacts of innovation support measures in Brazil, and the second is to test the hypothesis of indirect effects of innovation policies on non-beneficiary firms through the labor mobility channel, whether resulting from direct support programs or indirect support via tax incentives. For this purpose, mobility is defined as the movement of workers in technical-scientific occupations, as identified by Araújo et al. (2009). It is found that, with the exception of a subvention program, direct support in the form of credit or cooperative projects fosters more innovative effort than tax incentives. Nonetheless, direct and tax-based incentives for innovation have different purposes, and sound innovation relies on both types of incentive. Number IDB-WP-459 2013-11 D22 H32 H81 L52 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38238981 application/pdf Sérgio Kannebley Júnior Bruno César Araújo Alessandro Maffioli Rodolfo Stucchi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44882021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper revisits the effects of a country's institutional framework on individual firms behavior, in particular focusing on their propensity to comply with legal rules. The theoretical model presented here suggests that these effects may be of paramount significance contrary to the recently popularized paradigm arguing that differences across countries have ceased to matter much. This paper's empirical strategy consists of explaining the variation in measures of non-compliance with legal rules and employs a rich dataset based on thousands of firms from dozens of countries. We find that most of the variation emanates from country-wide differences in institutional quality, although some firm characteristics play a role as well. Our conclusion is that countries still matter in providing institutional infrastructure, which determines to a large extent the context within which firms operate. Number 4488 2006-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-584&pub_file_name=pubWP-584.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31942021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper characterizes the evolution of Paraguay's policymaking process (PMP) between 1954 and 2003. We present an overview of the PMP under the rule of Alfredo Stroessner (1954-89) and explore the institutional setting emerging after 1989. We discuss how the Colorado Party progressively broke up into several factions and characterize the distinctive patterns of policymaking that emerged after the adoption of the 1992 Constitution. We hypothesize that the presence of a large number of veto players has made policy change more difficult and that legislators are inclined to pursue particularistic policies. In order to test those hypotheses, we rely on a database containing virtually every bill introduced in Congress since April 1992. Our conclusions suggest that the current Paraguayan PMP may be flexible for the provision of particularistic benefits but is rigid for the approval of broad regulatory or redistributive policies. Number 3194 2006-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-502&pub_file_name=pubR-502.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Saiegh Sebastian Author-Name_Last: Saiegh Marcela Montero Marcela Author-Name_Last: Montero Anibal Pérez-Liñán Anibal Author-Name_Last: Pérez-Liñán José Molinas José Author-Name_Last: Molinas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31052021-06-30RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Tradicionalmente Colombia se ha considerado como el país más estable de la región, nohabiendo experimentado las crisis de balanza de pagos ni corridas contra el peso, al menosen las proporciones registradas por sus vecinos. Por esta razón, es una economía que ha tenido acceso permanente a los mercados financieros internacionales, aunque se hayanpresentado algunas coyunturas difíciles originadas por choques externos e internos. Entrelos primeros son referencia obligada la crisis de la deuda de comienzos de los añosochenta, y más recientemente el "tequilazo" de 1994 y la crisis asiática de 1997 y 1998. Number 3105 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-406&pub_file_name=pubR-406.pdf application/pdf Santiago Herrera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40302022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Some analysts rank Chile as the only Latin American economy that qualifies as a `take-off economy, ` or development economy. In a sense, Chile`s enduring success and proved insulation from the `Tequila effect` are due to its high national savings. What has made Chile`s savings so high? What were some key policies implemented? Did the structural and liberalizing reforms of the late 1970s and 1980s have anything to do with it? This paper tries to empirically disentangle some of the puzzles with historical data that span the 1960-1995 period. Number 4030 1996-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-322&pub_file_name=pubWP-322.pdf application/pdf Felipe G. Morandé

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48132022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents results from a randomized control trial in which approximately 1, 000 OLPC XO laptops were provided for home use to children attending primary schools in Lima, Peru. The intervention increased access and use of home computers, with some substitution away from computer use outside the home. Beneficiaries were more likely to complete domestic chores but less likely to read books. Treatment children scored almost one standard deviation higher in a test of XO proficiency, though there were no effects on objective and self-reported skills for using a Windows-based PC and Internet. There were positive impacts on the Raven's Progressive Matrices test among children who did not have a home computer before the intervention, but no significant effects for the sample as a whole. Finally, there was little evidence for spillovers within schools, although close friends and classmates of laptop recipients did exhibit higher proficiency with the XO computer. Number 4813 2012-12 C93 I21 I28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37360509 application/pdf Diether Beuermann Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo Santiago Cueto Ofer Malamud

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45592022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using firm level data on 70, 000 enterprises in 107 countries, this paper finds important effects of access to finance, business regulations, corruption, and to a lesser extent, infrastructure bottlenecks in explaining patterns of job creation at the firm level. The paper focuses on how the impact of the investment climate varies across sizes of firms. The differences across size categories come from two sources. First, objective conditions of the business environment do vary systematically by firm types. Micro and small firms have less access to formal finance, pay more in bribes than do larger firms, and face greater interruptions in infrastructure services. Larger firms spend significantly more time dealing with officials and red tape. Second, even controlling for these differences in objective conditions, there is evidence of significant non-linearities in their impact on employment growth. The results suggest strong composition effects: A weak business environment shifts downward the size distribution of firms. In the case of finance and business regulations this occurs by reducing the employment growth of all firms, particularly micro and small firms. On the other hand, corruption and poor access to infrastructure reduce employment growth by affecting the growth of medium size and large firms. With significant differences between firms with less than 10 employees and SMEs, these results indicate significant reforms are needed to spur micro firms to grow into the ranks of the SMEs. Number 4559 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-626&pub_file_name=pubWP-626.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Reyes Aterido Mary Hallward-Driemeier

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31742022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The Youth Training Program (YTP) was an important component of Argentina’s active labor policy of the 1990s. The program offered courses of three months’ duration, divided equally between lectures and practical experience, and targeted young people, most of whom were not employed and had a low level of education. The program was offered by different institutions chosen through a bidding process and included courses in the fields of agriculture, manufacture, construction and services. This paper conducts an econometric cost-benefit analysis of the fifth round of the YTP. Benefits (wage increases, increase in likelihood of employment, increase in earnings) are estimated using non-matching (Before and After, Cross Section and Difference in Difference) and matching techniques based on propensity score estimate (Nearest Neighbor, Kernel, Local Linear Regression) in order to avoid selection bias. Estimates of the ATE and TT effects are also provided. A sample consisting of 1, 670 beneficiaries and a similarly-sized comparison group provided the information necessary to apply the methodology. Benefit estimates are made for the aggregate, by gender and for both youth and adults. Regional differences are also provided. The cost includes direct and indirect components and the alternative cost of beneficiaries reducing their contributions to output during the program. Estimates of rate of return are provided based on the previous benefit and cost estimation. In general, the results support an estimate of 10 percent of return. This looks reasonable if it is compared with the very low rate of return of education estimated separately for the beneficiaries group. Finally, the management of the program is evaluated. Number 3174 2004-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-482&pub_file_name=pubR-482.pdf application/pdf Víctor Elías Fernanda Ruiz Núñez Ricardo Cossa David Bravo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44982022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper proposes an integrated framework to analyze jointly two key issues: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face higher risk than the US itself. But, with pronounced Loss Aversion in emerging markets, their precautionary savings can generate substantial “global imbalances, ” especially if there is an inefficient supply of global “insurance. ” In principle, lower real interest rates will ensure that aggregate demand equals supply at a global level (though the required real interest may be negative). While a precautionary savings glut appears to be a temporary phenomenon, a process of correction triggered by a “Sudden Stop” in capital flows to the United States might lead to a “hard landing. ” Number 4498 2007-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-593&pub_file_name=pubWP-593.pdf application/pdf Marcus Miller Lei Zhang

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44442022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En América Latina se deja de inscribir en el registro civil aproximadamente 14% de los nacimientos, según un cálculo de la UNICEF (2001). A los niños que carecen de un documento donde conste su nacimiento se les puede negar el acceso a servicios sociales, incluida la matriculación en la escuela y el acceso a servicios médicos. En este trabajo se analiza la falta de registro de nacimientos en seis países latinoamericanos `Bolivia, Brasil, Colombia, República Dominicana, Perú y Nicaragua` empleando encuestas demográficas y de servicios de salud (DHS, por sus siglas en inglés). Se halló que la falta de inscripción de niños de menos de cinco años va de 8, 4% en Perú a 25, 8% en República Dominicana. En los seis países se hallaron diferencias regionales muy considerables. Baje el Archivo PDF Number 4444 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-551&pub_file_name=pubWP-551.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Analía Olgiati Leslie Stone

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41952022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se elabora un modelo general de equilibrio generacional sobrepuesto para evaluar cuantitativamente la manera en que la transición demográfica (disminución de las tasas de mortalidad y fertilidad) inciden en las variables agregadas (salarios, tasa de interés, producción) y en el bienestar intergeneracional en economías cerradas y abiertas. Realizamos este análisis en dos economías calibradas para asemejarse al Norte (EE. UU. y Europa) y América Latina. Nuestras simulaciones sugieren que la transición demográfica puede haber generado un crecimiento del ingreso per cápita de hasta 0, 5% al año por encima del crecimiento en estado estable durante los últimos 50 años en América Latina y de 0, 3% en el Norte. Number 4195 2000-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-412&pub_file_name=pubWP-412.pdf application/pdf Giovanni L. Violante Orazio P. Attanasio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44952022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento analiza las recientes tendencias del desarrollo institucional de América Latina en relación a la protección del inversionista. A pesar del subdesarrollo de los mercados financieros de la región, hay un movimiento lento hacia reformas legales con la intención de proteger a los inversionistas y hacer que los mercados regionales sean más atractivos para ellos; deficiencias actuales en las instituciones legales de la región generan altos niveles de concentración de propiedad, escaso acceso a financiamiento de capital extranjero y mercado de capital poco activo. La evidencia en este trabajo, basada en la información a nivel de empresa en seis países, muestra que asi como la protección legal para inversionistas, el gobierno corporativo a nivel de empresas está vinculado a disminuir los gastos de capital, mejor valuación, ejecución, y pagos de dividendos. Las firmas pueden compensar por las deficiencias legales de sus países, distinguiéndose a través del mejoramiento de prácticas de gobierno corporativo, asímismo aumentando la transparencia y limitando un potencial conflicto entre los grandes y pequeños accionistas. Adicionalmente, las empresas pueden buscar capital emitiendo ADR`s como lo han hecho en años recientes, aunque esta práctica debilita los mercados locales de capital. Al final, las firmas y los reguladores deben mejorar su estructura de gobierno y protección a los accionistas si quieren alcanzar los estandares mejorados de los países desarrollados, ocasionados por los recientes escándalos en Asia, Europa y Estados Unidos. Number 4495 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-591&pub_file_name=pubWP-591.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41402022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study undertakes an econometric analysis of data on the use of child care services and labor force participation drawn from a survey of 1, 720 households in 15 `favelas, ` or slums, in Rio de Janeiro. The analysis examines the impact that access to child care services has on female labor force participation and final earnings. Number 4140 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-384&pub_file_name=pubWP-384.pdf application/pdf Ruthanne Deutsch

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30862022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study uses a cross-section of Brazilian municipal data in an attempt to estimate the impact of climate changes on the pattern of disease morbidity and infant mortality. Brazil is a country with climate conditions that range from tropical rain forest to temperate savanna regions in the southern part of the country. When one travels from north to south and west to east, and from sea level to altitudes of 1, 300 meters, it is possible to examine the results of a stochastic process and a range of global warming experiences. Therefore looking at the relationship between health and climate in Brazil could help to explain the impact of climate change on the health of the population. The objective of this study is to understand the relationship between health and climate after taking into account the interaction between man and nature represented by the level of economic development and the effects of policies to create a more (or less) adequate life environment. Number 3086 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-386&pub_file_name=pubR-386.pdf application/pdf Elca Rosenberg Denisard Alves Christopher Timmins Robert Evenson

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30912022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There are few Latin American countries that produced such a remarkable turnaround in policies and outcomes as Argentina did in the 1990s. The large number of reforms yielded surprisingly strong growth and the near-disappearance of inflation. The change of `economic paradigm` led to behavioral changes that reflected themselves in a number of other areas. Perhaps the most striking change took place in the labor market, where job creation and destruction reigned in earnest. There, where reforms were moderate, high open unemployment was the result. This paper looks at the potential effect regulations might have on labor demand dynamics. In particular, we try to ascertain how movements in labor costs influence firms` decisions regarding job creation. The paper first presents descriptive evidence on who benefits from regulations and how much they cost. The evidence is based on PHS Microdata and identifies the effects on individuals` labor market outcomes stemming from varying regulations. The paper then turns to labor demand estimation. We exploit a panel data set that comprises some 1, 300 manufacturing firms for the period 1990-1996. The panel provides information on employment and hours worked, as well as overtime hours, wages and physical production. We exploit the hours worked/jobs relation to shed some light on labor market dynamics. It is found that regulations do have a sizable and significant negative effect on employment decisions. In particular, it appears that severance payment regulations do hurt employment decisions. It is also found that firms rationally substitute workers for a more intensive use of hours. Number 3091 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-391&pub_file_name=pubR-391.pdf application/pdf Guillermo Mondino Silvia Montoya

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31652022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper summarizes and discusses new evidence on the nature, extent, evolution and consequences of financing constraints in Latin America; this evidence is drawn from a recent series of papers. The countries covered are Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Uruguay. All the new contributions share the characteristics of being based on micro data. Most of the data sources are firms’ balance sheets. For Argentina information on debt contracts and credit history is also available, while for Costa Rica personal information on entrepreneurs was also collected. Some of the papers investigate the determinants of firms’ financing choices, and the consequences of access or debt composition on performance. Other papers attempt to assess the severity of financing constraints, by focusing on firms’ investment choices. All the papers (but one) were part of the project “Determinants and Consequences of Financial Constraints Facing Firms in Latin America and the Caribbean, ” financed by the IADB. However, other recent micro-econometric contributions are discussed as well. The results suggest that access to credit (and its cost) depends not only upon favorable balance sheet characteristics, but also upon the closeness of the relationship between firms and banks as well as credit history. Access to long-term loans and to loans denominated in foreign currency is positively related to the size and tangibility of firms’ assets and negatively related to measures of country risk. Moreover, firms that have foreign participation appear to be less financially constrained in their investment decisions. The same is true for firms that are associated with business groups. On the whole, it appears that financial liberalization tends to relax financial constraints for firms that were previously constrained, while financial crises tighten them. However, firms that have more access to external sources of finance via, for instance, exports or ownership links, appear to suffer less in the post-crisis period. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these results. Number 3165 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-472&pub_file_name=pubR-472.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Fabio Schiantarelli

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43742022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Durante los últimos 20 años, México ha redefinido el papel del Estado en su economía a través de un vigoroso programa de apertura del comercio, promoción de la eficiencia y reducción del tamaño y alcance del sector propiedad del Estado. La privatización condujo en México a una mejora significativa del desempeño del empresariado y la rentabilidad aumentó 24 puntos porcentuales, acercándose así a niveles comparables a los de las empresas privadas. Como máximo, cabe atribuir un 5% de ese aumento a un aumento de los precios y 31% a traspasos de trabajadores, mientras que el 64% restante representa incrementos de productividad. Hay elementos que indican que la privatización aporta otros beneficios sociales, tales como un mayor acceso a los servicios, que normalmente se producen a continuación de una privatización, y que conduce al mejoramiento de la asistencia social a los consumidores más pobres que compensan con creces cualquier aumento de los precios. Además, un aspecto de la privatización que se suele pasar por alto es el de sus efectos fiscales, en los que el producto de la venta se ve magnificado mediante la reducción de subsidios y el aumento de impuestos, y puede ayudar a pagar deuda o servir de fondos para el gasto social. El programa de privatización de México puede proporcionar una valiosa guía de lo que conviene y no conviene hacer en una privatización: En primer lugar, el proceso de privatización debe diseñarse cuidadosamente y ejecutarse de manera transparente. Hay requisitos especiales, tales como las prohibiciones de inversión extranjera directa o de pagos exclusivamente en efectivo, que conducen a descuentos considerables de los precios de las compañías vendidas, al tiempo que la simplicidad fomenta la competencia y conduce a precios más elevados. Además, un programa transparente puede contribuir a refrenar la tendencia de los políticos de favorecer a sus amigos mediante ajustes de las reglas del juego. En segundo lugar, la reestructuración de las empresas que se hallan en la antesala de su privatización resulta contraproducente para aumentar los precios netos de venta y por lo tanto se debe evitar. Los gobiernos invierten recursos considerables en inversiones políticamente motivadas o en programas de eficiencia que no son valorados por los postores y que rara vez se pueden justificar desde el punto de vista social desde el cual se promueven. Además, los programas de reestructuración alargan considerablemente el proceso de privatización y hacen bajar los precios de venta de las empresas; en el caso de México, cada mes de demora ocasiona una disminución de 2, 2% del precio de venta. Por último, en este trabajo se sostiene que es fundamental desregular y volver a regular cuidadosamente a las empresas privatizadas, a fin de asegurar que se comporten adecuadamente, así como para proporcionar un marco de conducción empresarial que permita que las compañías financien sus operaciones sin depender de la ayuda del gobierno. Number 4374 2004-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-513&pub_file_name=pubWP-513.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43812022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper builds a new dataset on bank ownership and bank performance covering approximately 50, 000 observations for 119 countries over the 1995-2002 period. The paper then uses the dataset to reassess the relationship between bank ownership and bank performance, providing separated estimations for developing and industrial countries. It is found that, while ownership is strongly correlated with performance in developing countries, that ownership is not correlated with performance in industrial countries. In particular, the paper suggests that state-owned banks operating in developing countries tend to have lower profitability and higher costs than their private counterparts, and that the opposite is true for foreign-owned banks (which tend to be characterized by higher profitability and lower costs). We also find that, in developing countries, the entry of foreign banks plays a useful role by making domestic banks more efficient in terms of overhead cost and spreads, although we do not find any effect on profitability of domestic banks. Number 4381 2004-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-518&pub_file_name=pubWP-518.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Ugo Panizza Mónica Yañez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43152022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Some key criteria in the optimal currency area literature are that countries should join a currency union if they have closer international trade links and more symmetric business cycles. However, both criteria are endogenous. Frankel and Rose (1998) find that trade intensity increases cycle correlation among industrial countries. We study whether the same result holds true for the case of developing countries, as their different patterns of international trade and specialization may lead to cyclical asymmetries among them and between industrial and developing countries. We gather annual information for 147 countries for 1960-99 (33, 676 country pairs) and find: (i) countries with higher bilateral trade exhibit higher business cycle synchronization, with an increase of one standard deviation in bilateral trade intensity raising the output correlation from 0. 05 to 0. 09 for all country pairs; (ii) countries with more asymmetric structures of production exhibit a smaller business cycle correlation; (iii) the impact of trade integration on business cycles is higher for industrial countries than both developing and industrial-developing country pairs; (iv) a one standard deviation increase in bilateral trade intensity leads to surges in output correlation from 0. 25 to 0. 39 among industrial countries, from 0. 08 to 0. 10 for our sample of industrial-developing country pairs, and from 0. 03 to 0. 06 among developing countries; (v) the impact of trade intensity on cycle correlation is smaller the greater the production structure asymmetries between the countries. Number 4315 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-478&pub_file_name=pubWP-478.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Ernesto H. Stein

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preprint Este documento es una actualización del trabajo original, y tiene como objeto describir y medir el avance de las reformas estructurales, utilizando para ello un índice de políticas estructurales que resume el estado de progreso de las políticas en las áreas comercial, financiera, tributaria, privatizaciones y laboral. Un artículo paralelo utiliza este índice para evaluar el efecto de las reformas estructurales sobre el crecimiento, la productividad y la inversión en América Latina. El índice se basa directamente en variables de política como las mencionadas. El índice permite comparar el estado de las distintas áreas de política dentro de un mismo país o de cada política entre países. En una escala que va de 0 a 1, el índice promedio para todos los países y todas las áreas de política estructural se encontraba en un nivel de 0, 34 en 1985. Al terminar la década de los noventa llegaba a 0, 58. Este cambio implica un progreso apreciable, pero también refleja el hecho de que aún queda un potencial importante por explotar. Number 4288 2001-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-462&pub_file_name=pubWP-462.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

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preprint This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damages caused by the January 12, 2010 earthquake that struck Haiti. Damages are estimated for a disaster with both 200, 000 and 250, 000 total dead and missing (i.e., the range of mortality that the earthquake is estimated to have caused) using Haiti’s economic and demographic data. The base estimate is US$8.1bn for a death toll of 250, 000, but for several reasons this may be a lower- bound estimate. An estimate of US$13.9bn for the same death toll is within statistical error. While the results are subject to many caveats, the implications of such an estimate are significant. Raising such a figure will require many donors—bilateral, multilateral and private. Hence excellent coordination of funding and execution will be the key to ensuring the efficient use of funds. Natural disasters, direct economic damages, Haiti, earthquake, reconstruction, aid and development Number 4652 2010-02 O11 O19 O54 Q54 F35 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-163&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-163.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org Oscar Becerra obecerra@iadb.org

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preprint Evidence on the impacts of a large-scale expansion in public preprimary education is limited and mostly circumscribed to high and middle-income countries. This paper estimates the effects of such an expansion on progression in primary school in rural communities of Guatemala. Combining administrative and population census data in a difference-in-difference framework, the paper examines a large-scale construction program that increased the number of preprimaries from around 5, 300 to 11, 500 between 1998 and 2005. The results indicate that the program increased by 2. 1 percentage points the fraction of students that progress adequately and attend sixth grade by age 12. These positive effects are heavily concentrated among girls. Number 4815 2012-12 I21 I28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37327766 application/pdf Paulo Bastos Nicolas Bottan Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Algunos criterios claves de la obra publicada sobre la zona monetaria óptima son que los países deben sumarse a una unión monetaria para poder establecer lazos comerciales internacionales más estrechos y ciclos económicos más simétricos. Pero ambos criterios son endógenos. Frankel y Rose (1998) hallan que la intensidad del comercio hace aumentar la correlación entre los países industrializados. Analizamos si el mismo resultado se verifica en el caso de los países en desarrollo, ya que sus patrones de comercio internacional y especialización distintos pueden conducir a asimetrías cíclicas entre ellos y entre los países industrializados y los países en desarrollo. Recabamos información anual de 147 países durante el período de 1960 a 1999 (33. 676 pares de países) y hallamos lo siguiente: (i) los países con un mayor volumen de comercio bilateral muestran una mayor sincronización del ciclo económico, y el aumento de una desviación estándar de la intensidad del comercio bilateral hace aumentar la correlación de producción de 0, 05 a 0, 09 en todos los pares de países; (ii) los países con estructuras de producción más asimétricas muestran una menor correlación con el ciclo económico; (iii) los efectos de la integración comercial sobre los ciclos económicos es mayor en el caso de los países industrializados que en pares de países tanto en desarrollo como industrializados-en desarrollo; (iv) un aumento de la desviación estándar en la intensidad del comercio bilateral conduce a repuntes de la producción de 0, 25 a 0, 39 entre países industrializados, y de 0, 08 a 0, 10 en nuestra muestra de pares de países industrializados-en desarrollo, y de 0, 03 a 0, 06 entre países en desarrollo; (v) las repercusiones de la intensidad del comercio sobre la correlación del ciclo es menor mientras mayores son las asimetrías de la estructura de producción entre los países. Number 4316 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-478&pub_file_name=pubWP-478.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Ernesto H. Stein

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preprint This paper develops a two-country, general equilibrium model of oligopoly in which the degree of horizontal product differentiation is endogenously determined by rms’ strategic investments in product innovation. Consumers seek variety and product innovation is more skill intensive than production. Stronger import competition increases innovation incentives, and thereby the relative demand for skill. An intraindustry trade expansion following trade liberalization can therefore increase wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. In addition, since product differentiation is resource consuming, freer trade entails a potential trade-off between production and variety. The import competition effect highlighted by the model, which plays a key role in determining the general equilibrium, is consistent with panel data on Chilean manufacturing plants. Trade liberalization, Product differentiation, Innovation, Wage inequality, General oligopolistic equilibrium Number 4679 2010-08 F15 F16 L13 O31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-184&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-184.pdf application/pdf Paulo Bastos pbastos@iadb.org Odd Rune Straume

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preprint The prevalence of health problems and malnutrition in Bolivia is shockingly high, even relative to other developing countries. This study analyzes the association between a bidimensional measure of child health -composed of height and weight z-scores -and a set of child nutrition determinants related to physical and cultural contexts, the mother`s characteristics, household assets and access to public services. The paper seeks to identify the main determinants of child health and to measure the impact of each factor related to the bidimensional indicator. A sequential strategy is adopted in order to estimate a two-equation linear model with correlated error terms. A major finding is that geographical and cultural variables are significant determinants of nutritional status, and that the role of the mother`s anthropometrical characteristics is substantial. This study uses data from a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) on over 3, 000 children. Number 3185 2005-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-492&pub_file_name=pubR-492.pdf application/pdf Rolando Morales Ana María Aguilar Alvaro Calzadilla

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preprint No Brasil, a partir da década de oitenta, as mortes por causas externas aumentaram em todas as faixas etárias saltando, a partir de 1989, do quarto para o segundo lugar. Entre 1979 e 1986, por exemplo, as mortes por acidente de trânsito aumentaram em 21%, concentrando-se no grupo de 15 a 19 anos de idade. Já as mortes por homicídio aumentam 56% na população em geral, 90% no grupo de 19 a 24 anos e 136% no subgrupo de 15 a 19 anos . Assim, a violência, embora generalizada, parece eleger como alvo preferencial os mais jovens, atingindo sobretudo a população economicamente ativa das regiões metropolitanas e, desta forma, agride o potencial econômico e intelectual da sociedade brasileira. No Rio de Janeiro, os dados parecem ainda mais alarmantes: os homicídios, principal causa específica no conjunto de óbitos, aumentaram de 33, 4%, em 1980 (em contraposição aos 30, 4% dos acidentes), para 45, 2% no final de 1988 (contra 31, 2% dos acidentes). A prevalência dos homicídios no perfil das mortes violentas no Rio de Janeiro consegue portanto chocar o próprio Brasil, onde, no mesmo ano, os óbitos por homicídios corresponderam a 24, 1% e os de acidente de trânsito, a 29, 3% . Esta escalada adentra a década de 90 e, em 1995, o número de óbitos ocorridos no Município do Rio de Janeiro por causas externas bate todos os recordes alcançados durante a década de 80 e ultrapassa os 800 óbitos por mês, segundo a Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Apesar das evidentes repercussões desse fenômeno na qualidade de vida dos brasileiros, existem, relativamente, poucos estudos sobre a sua magnitude, seus fatores de risco e os custos, sejam diretos ou indiretos, dos diversos tipos de violência. A partir de um instrumental interdisciplinar que integrasse a abordagem da Saúde Pública, das Ciências Sociais e da Economia, o ISER, com o apoio técnico do Centers for Disease Control and Prevention de Atlanta, CDC-Atlanta, e financiamento do Banco Inter-Americano de Desenvolvimento, BID, buscou minimizar essa lacuna através de um estudo que dividimos em três partes: na primeira, tratamos de estimar a magnitude do fenômeno; na segunda, avaliar o impacto e os custos econômicos da violência e, finalmente, examinar, em uma perspectiva de avaliação custo-benefício, a vitimização resultante de um dos aspectos das políticas de controle da violência no município do Rio de Janeiro, qual seja, o resultado das intervenções policiais. Number 3044 1998-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-347&pub_file_name=pubR-347.pdf application/pdf ISER ISER

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preprint In addition to the morbidity and mortality concerns of outdoor air pollution, studies have shown that air pollution also generates problems for children`s cognitive performance and human capital formation. High concentrations of pollutants can affect children’s learning process by exacerbating respiratory illnesses, fatigue, absenteeism and attention problems. The purpose of this work is to analyze the possible contemporary effects of PM10 and other different air pollutants on standardized test scores in Chile. It examines results for 3, 880 schools in the Metropolitan, Valparaiso and O’Higgins regions for children in fourth, eight and tenth grades between 1997 and 2012. Data for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2. 5), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and ozone (O3) were interpolated at school level using a kriging methodology. The results suggest that higher annual P M10 and O3 levels are clearly associated with a reduction in test scores. Nonetheless, as of 2012 many municipalities in these Chilean regions are still exceeding the annual P M10 international standard quality norm (50 micrograms per cubic meter) by 15 micrograms per cubic meter on average. Efforts to reduce pollution below this norm in the most polluted municipalities would account for improvements in reading and math test scores of 3. 5 percent and 3. 1 percent of a standard deviation, respectively. Number IDB-WP-468 2013-12 H23 I25 Q51 Q53 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38330430 application/pdf Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org Mauricio Vela

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preprint Violence has a striking gender pattern. Men are more likely to be attacked by a stranger, while women experience violence mostly from their partners. This paper estimates the costs of violence against women in terms of intangible outcomes, such as women's reproductive health, labor supply, and the welfare of their children. The study uses a sample of nearly 83, 000 women in seven countries from all income groups and all sub-regions in Latin American and the Caribbean. The sample, consisting of 26. 3 million women between the ages of 15 and 49, strengthens the external validity of the results. The results show that physical violence against women is strongly associated with their marital status because it increases the divorce or separation rate. Violence is negatively linked with women's health. The study shows that domestic violence additionally creates a negative externality by affecting important short-term health outcomes for children whose mothers suffered from violence. To obtain the child health outcomes, the study employs a natural experiment in Peru to establish that these effects appear to be causal. Finally, the paper presents evidence indicating that women's education and age buffer the negative effect of violence against women on their children's health outcomes. Number IDB-WP-414 2013-08 I12 I3 J16 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38008356 application/pdf Jorge Aguero

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preprint We examine the long-term impacts of drought on local labor markets in Brazil. Us- ing rainfall data going back over a century, we build contemporaneous and historical drought indices for more than 3, 000 local areas, and examine them in conjunction with five waves of population census data spanning 1970-2010. Results from a difference- in-differences design reveal that increased drought frequency in the previous decade reduces local value added, employment and wages in the agricultural sector; leads to job losses and pay cuts in the local manufacturing and services sectors; and induces out-migration, especially among younger cohorts, leading to relative population de- cline. These findings are in line with standard general-equilibrium theory featuring imperfect labor mobility across space. Number IDB-WP-466 2013-12 J61 N96 O15 Q54 R11 R23 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38335273 application/pdf Paulo Bastos pbastos@iadb.org Matias Busso mbusso@iadb.org Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org

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preprint A cinco semanas de haber iniciado 1997, “…se registra el quinto asalto bancario en el Distrito Federal (DF) con un saldo de dos policías y un civil muerto; un botín de 3, 500 dólares y cinco presuntos delincuentes libres -ese mismo día fueron encontrados en su domicilio una pareja de comerciantes asesinados, al parecer, después de un posible asalto fueron ejecutados pues ambos presentaban un impacto de bala en la cabeza; él tenía 57 años de edad y ella 52 -con la misma suerte corrieron dos hombres desconocidos de 30 a 35 años quienes al parecer se resistieron a ser asaltados y fueron baleados en la vía pública, presentado varias lesiones por arma de fuego en su cuerpo -en ninguno de los casos se detuvieron a los agresores- La nota anterior, extraída de un periódico de circulación nacional, permite sintetizar el clima de violencia, inseguridad e impunidad que se vive en la Ciudad de México desde hace más de dos años. Un asalto bancario semanal, al menos siete asesinatos conocidos a consecuencia de robos en un día y ningún victimario detenido, son algunas de las cifras que justifican la sensación de temor e inseguridad de la mayor parte de los ciudadanos. Number 3030 1998-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-331&pub_file_name=pubR-331.pdf application/pdf Fundacion Mexicana para la Salud

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preprint Este documento analiza los grandes cambios en las principales áreas de política económica estructural en América Latina entre 1985 y 2009 y presenta un conjunto de índices que intentan medir qué tan favorables son para el libre funcionamiento de los mercados las políticas comercial, financiera, tributaria, de privatizaciones y laboral. En una escala que va de 0 a 1, el índice promedio para todos los países y todas las áreas de política estructural se elevó de 0, 39 en 1985 a 0, 6 al terminar la década de los noventa y a 0, 65 a fines de la década del 2000. Las reformas estructurales han sido profundas, especialmente en las áreas comercial, financiera, y en menor medida en las áreas de tributación y de privatización de los sectores de infraestructura. Los índices permiten comparaciones a través del tiempo, entre áreas y entre países. Sin embargo, son inadecuados para medir las políticas estructurales en Argentina y Venezuela durante la década del 2000, pues algunas de las políticas heterodoxas que han adoptado estos países no están cubiertas por los índices. Number 4826 2012-10 F10 H20 O11 O20 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37211452 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org

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preprint The study examines the influence of natural geography on human health in Peru, a country that has performed rather poorly, in the Latin American context, in terms of reducing its infant and maternal mortality rates. We measured natural geography through rainfall, temperature, altitude, longitude, and latitude. We also analyzed the effect that natural geography may have on the effectiveness of government health investments. We find evidence that geography has an important and independent influence on the infant mortality rate (IMR) and the child malnutrition rate (CMNR). As latitude and longitude increase (i. e. , as one moves towards the southwest) the IMR drops. Also, higher levels of rainfall (as in the Jungle region), and higher latitudes increase the CMNR. Lower temperatures, such as those observed in the Mountain region, seem to cause higher rates of child malnutrition. Geography also appears to affect the effectiveness of government health care investments. As latitude increases towards the south, thereby reducing the IMR, health centers and posts see their effectiveness reduced. Likewise, as longitude increases towards the west, thus helping to reduce the IMR, government health centers and posts become less effective in curtailing infant mortality. These results point to a decreasing marginal productivity of government health care spending. Several variables other than geography also affect health status. For example, we find that an increase in the illiteracy rate from 10 percent to 50 percent would bring about an increase in the IMR from 40 to 75 deaths per 1, 000 live births. Female illiteracy has an important influence on the IMR as well, with higher levels of illiteracy being associated with a higher IMR. A policy of increasing general and female education through public spending thus appears to be an effective way of improving infant and child health. The government of Peru has invested heavily in ambulatory facilities in areas of high IMR. These new investments may have had a positive impact on child health. However, whatever this impact, so far it appears to be mild, and not enough to overcome the low health status that led to these new investments in the first place. While endogeneity problems have kept us from measuring the effectiveness of public investments in ambulatory care infrastructure, we find that the number of doctors working in public facilities has a positive influence on child health and nutritional status. We are able to show through simulations how new public resources devoted to new facilities and doctors could be allocated among the provinces to reduce regional inequality in health status. Finally, we find that natural geography exacerbates inequality in health status, as do existing regional differences in the availability of public services, such as potable water, sewerage, electricity, and in education. Public investments aimed at reducing or eliminating such differences would help to improve equity in health status. Number 3101 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-402&pub_file_name=pubR-402.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Bitrán Cecilia Má Gloria Ubilla

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se elabora un índice de prácticas de conducción empresarial (CGI, por sus siglas en inglés) basándose en un conjunto de 24 preguntas que se pueden responder objetivamente a partir de información disponible públicamente. El objetivo es cuantificar la calidad general de las prácticas de conducción empresarial del mayor número posible de compañías. Los niveles del CGI en Brasil han venido mejorando con el tiempo, y un análisis de sus componentes indica que las compañías brasileñas tienen un desempeño mucho mejor en cuanto a la información que suministran que en cuanto a otros aspectos de la gestión empresarial. En este trabajo se hallan niveles sumamente elevados de concentración de derechos de voto, apalancados por el uso generalizado de estructuras de control indirecto y acciones sin derecho a voto. No se hallan indicios ni de afianzamiento firme ni de incentivos en cuanto al uso de porcentajes de propiedad en Brasil, pero sí se hallan indicios de que la separación del control de los derechos sobre el flujo de caja destruye el valor. El CGI mantiene una relación positiva, significativa y robusta con el valor de la empresa. Una mejora de peor a mejor en el CGI en 2002 conduciría a un aumento de 0, 38 del coeficiente de Tobin, lo cual representa un aumento de 95% del valor de la acción de una compañía con apalancamiento promedio y las proporciones del coeficiente de Tobin. Tomando en cuenta nuestro coeficiente CGI más bajo, un aumento de un punto del CGI conduciría a un aumento de 6, 8% del precio de la acción de la compañía promedio en 2002. No se halló relación significativa alguna entre la conducción empresarial y el pago de dividendos. Los resultados se ponen en contexto mediante un análisis comparativo con Chile. Number 3209 2005-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-514&pub_file_name=pubR-514.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Leal André Carvalhal-da-Silva

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preprint Este trabajo trata la evaluación de ProJoven, el programa de capacitación para el trabajo de jóvenes en de Perú y muestra las diferencias considerables que hay en sus efectos entre hombres y mujeres. Dieciocho meses después de haber participado en el programa, el empleo entre las mujeres mejoró aproximadamente en 15% (en el caso de los hombres, el disminuyó en 11%). Sin embargo, la promoción de la igualdad entre sexos representa apenas 1, 5% del presupuesto del programa ProJoven. Estos resultados hacen pensar que los programas de capacitación para el trabajo que promueven la igualdad de participación entre los sexos tienen efectos desproporcionadamente positivos en las mujeres participantes, en un mercado laboral en el que imperan diferencias considerables entre los sexos. (disponible en inglés) Number 4554 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-623&pub_file_name=pubWP-623.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví Miguel Robles

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preprint There is a common perception that low productivity or low growth is due to what can be called an `innovation shortfall, ` usually identified as a low rate of investment in research and development (RD) compared with some high-innovation countries. The usual reaction to this perceived problem is to call for increases in RD investment rates, usually specifying a target that can be as high as 3 percent of GDP. The problem with this analysis is that it fails to see that a low RD investment rate may be appropriate given the economy`s pattern of specialization, or may be just one manifestation of more general problems that impede accumulation of all kinds of capital. When does a country suffer from an innovation shortfall above and beyond the ones that should be expected given its specialization and accumulation patterns? This is the question tackled in this paper. First, it shows a simple way to estimate the RD gap that can be explained by a country`s specialization pattern, and illustrates this with the case of Chile. The analysis finds that although Chile`s specialization in natural-resource-intensive sectors explains part of its RD gap, a significant shortfall remains. Second, it shows how a calibrated model can be used to determine the RD gap that should be expected given a country`s investment in physical and human capital. If the actual RD gap is above this expected gap, the country suffers from a true innovation shortfall. Number 4429 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-543&pub_file_name=pubWP-543.pdf application/pdf William Maloney Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

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preprint No Brasil, a partir da década de oitenta, as mortes por causas externas aumentaram em todas as faixas etárias saltando, a partir de 1989, do quarto para o segundo lugar. Entre 1979 e 1986, por exemplo, as mortes por acidente de trânsito aumentaram em 21%, concentrando-se no grupo de 15 a 19 anos de idade. Já as mortes por homicídio aumentam 56% na população em geral, 90% no grupo de 19 a 24 anos e 136% no subgrupo de 15 a 19 anos . Assim, a violência, embora generalizada, parece eleger como alvo preferencial os mais jovens, atingindo sobretudo a população economicamente ativa das regiões metropolitanas e, desta forma, agride o potencial econômico e intelectual da sociedade brasileira. No Rio de Janeiro, os dados parecem ainda mais alarmantes: os homicídios, principal causa específica no conjunto de óbitos, aumentaram de 33, 4%, em 1980 (em contraposição aos 30, 4% dos acidentes), para 45, 2% no final de 1988 (contra 31, 2% dos acidentes). A prevalência dos homicídios no perfil das mortes violentas no Rio de Janeiro consegue portanto chocar o próprio Brasil, onde, no mesmo ano, os óbitos por homicídios corresponderam a 24, 1% e os de acidente de trânsito, a 29, 3% . Esta escalada adentra a década de 90 e, em 1995, o número de óbitos ocorridos no Município do Rio de Janeiro por causas externas bate todos os recordes alcançados durante a década de 80 e ultrapassa os 800 óbitos por mês, segundo a Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Apesar das evidentes repercussões desse fenômeno na qualidade de vida dos brasileiros, existem, relativamente, poucos estudos sobre a sua magnitude, seus fatores de risco e os custos, sejam diretos ou indiretos, dos diversos tipos de violência. A partir de um instrumental interdisciplinar que integrasse a abordagem da Saúde Pública, das Ciências Sociais e da Economia, o ISER, com o apoio técnico do Centers for Disease Control and Prevention de Atlanta, CDC-Atlanta, e financiamento do Banco Inter-Americano de Desenvolvimento, BID, buscou minimizar essa lacuna através de um estudo que dividimos em três partes: na primeira, tratamos de estimar a magnitude do fenômeno; na segunda, avaliar o impacto e os custos econômicos da violência e, finalmente, examinar, em uma perspectiva de avaliação custo-benefício, a vitimização resultante de um dos aspectos das políticas de controle da violência no município do Rio de Janeiro, qual seja, o resultado das intervenções policiais. Number 3045 1998-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-347&pub_file_name=pubR-347.pdf application/pdf ISER ISER

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3912022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using data for all 2, 454 municipalities of Mexico for the period 1980-2010, this paper analyzes the relationship between exposure to extreme temperatures and precipitation and death, as well as the relationship between severe weather and agricultural income and crop production in the country. It is found that extreme heat increases mortality, while the health effect of extreme cold is generally trivial. Precipitation extremes seem to affect the agricultural system, but their impact on mortality is ambiguous. More specifically, exchanging one day with a temperature of 16-18C for one day with temperatures higher than 30C increases the crude mortality rate by 0. 15 percentage points, a result robust to several model specifications. It is also found that the extreme heat effect on death is significantly more acute in rural regions, leading to increases of up to 0. 2 percentage points vis-‡-vis a 0. 07-point increase in urban areas. The timing of climate extremes is relevant: if a weather shock takes place during the agricultural growing season, the effects on mortality and agricultural output, productivity, prices, and crop yields are large and significant, but not so if such shocks occur during the non-growing season. Number IDB-WP-391 2013-03 I12 Q12 Q51 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37634127 application/pdf Roberto Guerrero Compean

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42472022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Recent literature has emphasized the importance of transport costs and infrastructure in explaining trade, access to markets, and increases in per capita income. For most Latin American countries, transport costs are a greater barrier to U. S. markets than import tariffs. We investigate the determinants of shipping costs to the U. S. with a large database of more than 300, 000 observations per year on shipments of products at the six-digit HS level from different ports around the world. Distance and containerization matter. In addition, we find that efficiency of ports is an important determinant of shipping costs. Improving port efficiency from the 25th to the 75th percentile reduces shipping costs by 12 percent. (Bad ports are equivalent to being 60 percent farther away from markets for the average country. ) Inefficient ports also increase handling costs, which are one of the components of shipping costs. We try to explain variations in port efficiency and find that they are linked to excessive regulation, the prevalence of organized crime, and the general condition of the country’s infrastructure. Finally, we present a number of success stories in Latin America to show that private involvement in port management leads to efficiency and lower costs whenever it is accompanied by labor reform, and when monopoly power is reduced through either regulation or competition. Number 4247 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-441&pub_file_name=pubWP-441.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Natalia Perez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4152022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a hedonic residential rent model for Brazil's metropolitan areas calibrated with microdata from Brazil's annual household survey, this study estimates that increasing the sense of security in the home by one standard deviation would increase average home values by R$1, 513 (US$757), or about US$13. 6 billion if applied to all 18. 0 million households in the study area. The principal components analysis of sense of security and crime victimization variables indicates that higher-income households feel more secure from crime in the home, even though theft and robbery victimization rise with household income and rent level. Higher levels of home protection measures by higher-income households partially explain this result. Number IDB-WP-415 2013-06 C83 R23 R31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37857917 application/pdf David M. Vetter Kaizô I. Beltrão Rosa M. R. Massena

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43052022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper summarizes and discusses new evidence on the nature, extent, evolution and consequences of financing constraints in Latin America; this evidence is drawn from a recent series of papers. The countries covered are Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Uruguay. All the new contributions share the characteristics of being based on micro data. Most of the data sources are firms’ balance sheets. For Argentina information on debt contracts and credit history is also available, while for Costa Rica personal information on entrepreneurs was also collected. Some of the papers investigate the determinants of firms’ financing choices, and the consequences of access or debt composition on performance. Other papers attempt to assess the severity of financing constraints, by focusing on firms’ investment choices. All the papers (but one) were part of the project “Determinants and Consequences of Financial Constraints Facing Firms in Latin America and the Caribbean, ” financed by the IADB. However, other recent micro-econometric contributions are discussed as well. The results suggest that access to credit (and its cost) depends not only upon favorable balance sheet characteristics, but also upon the closeness of the relationship between firms and banks as well as credit history. Access to long-term loans and to loans denominated in foreign currency is positively related to the size and tangibility of firms’ assets and negatively related to measures of country risk. Moreover, firms that have foreign participation appear to be less financially constrained in their investment decisions. The same is true for firms that are associated with business groups. On the whole, it appears that financial liberalization tends to relax financial constraints for firms that were previously constrained, while financial crises tighten them. However, firms that have more access to external sources of finance via, for instance, exports or ownership links, appear to suffer less in the post-crisis period. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these results. Number 4305 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-472&pub_file_name=pubWP-472.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Fabio Schiantarelli

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31722022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El principal objetivo de este trabajo es calcular la elasticidad de la sustitución de bienes no transables, poniéndole atención especial a los problemas empíricos relacionados con parámetros que varían en el tiempo, regresores omitidos y especificación de modelos. A tal fin se crea una base de datos y se calcula, siguiendo tres métodos alternativos, series trimestrales de consumo y precios de bienes transables y no transables de Uruguay durante el período de 1983 a 2002. Los cálculos econométricos del parámetro de interés se realizaron con modelos VEC. Estas estimaciones arrojan una elasticidad a largo plazo de la sustitución de -0, 46 en el modelo principal y de -0, 71 y -19, 05 en los otros dos modelos. Las pruebas de estabilidad paramétrica se realizan en el modelo principal y también se pone a prueba la capacidad de predicción del modelo. Se concluye que no sólo el parámetro de interés es estable en el tiempo, sino que el modelo además exhibe buenas propiedades de predicción, aún cuando se pone a prueba en un entorno exigente: el período siguiente al cambio en Uruguay del régimen cambiario, a mediados de 2002. Number 3172 2005-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-480&pub_file_name=pubR-480.pdf application/pdf Fernando Lorenzo Rosa Osimani Patricio Valenzuela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41532022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Luego de la crisis financiera de 1994, la tasa de ahorro de la economía mexicana cayó de 21, 7% a 19, 8% del PIB. La baja tuvo que ver con una reducción del nivel de ahorro externo de 6, 9% a 0, 5% entre 1994 y 1995. La disminución general no fue mayor porque se compensó casi totalmente por un incremento del ahorro privado de 11, 3% a 15% del PIB durante ese período. Number 4153 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-390&pub_file_name=pubWP-390.pdf application/pdf Orazio P. Attanasio Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42402022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se pone a prueba la sensibilidad de los índices de pobreza a la selección de escalas de equivalencia de adultos, suposiciones sobre la existencia de economías de escala en el consumo, métodos para tratar la pérdida de ingreso o ingresos nulos, y diversos ajustes para manejar las declaraciones de datos inexactos sobre el ingreso. También realizamos un análisis de sensibilidad al uso de diversas líneas e índices de pobreza, que son cuestiones que han sido analizadas mucho más a fondo en la obra publicada. El análisis de sensibilidad se aplica a datos de encuestas de hogares de 17 países latinoamericanos, los cuales abarcan 92% de la población de la región. Al hacer variar esos parámetros dentro de límites razonables, hallamos que cabe decir que la proporción de pobres es de 12, 7% o 65, 8% de la población total. Además, la clasificación de países con respecto a la pobreza también es altamente sensible. Esto apunta a la necesidad de justificar y tratar con claridad las opciones y definiciones subyacentes de las estadísticas sobre la pobreza, así como la necesidad de realizar un análisis de sensibilidad que ilustre el menú de opciones que pueden responder a la pregunta de cuánta pobreza hay. Number 4240 2000-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-437&pub_file_name=pubWP-437.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Nora Lustig Martin Cumpa José Antonio Mejía-Guerra joseam@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47142022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates the impact of a large temporary poverty relief program, Uruguay’s PANES—on birth outcomes. Using program administrative data and longitudinal vital statistics, a significant and precisely estimated reduction in the fraction of low-weight newborns (less than 2, 500 g. ) on the order of 10 to 20 percent was found to be a result of treatment. The cash (and in-kind) transfer components of the program were considered to drive the results, suggesting that unrestricted social assistance has the potential to positively affect birth outcomes, most likely through improved nutrition. Assuming that all the effect of the program was through the transfer, an elasticity of low birthweight with respect to welfare transfers on the order of around 0. 30 can be inferred. Number 4714 2011-03 I18 I32 I38 J13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=35923129 application/pdf Veronica Amarante Marco Manacorda Edward Miguel Andrea Vigorito

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30512022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Little work exists on elderly health, work and salaries in developing countries. This paper aims to contribute to this literature in the areas of health and income of the elderly. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of elderly health in the context of a developing country, Mexico, and the relationship between these health indicators and earnings in the labor market. We analyze the determinants of elderly health in Mexico, considering a number of different measures of health status, and we use these indicators to evaluate the impact of health on the income of working elderly individuals. We use the National Mexican Aging Survey of 1994, which contains detailed self-reported indicators of health as well as labor market information, to tease out these potential relationships. The results find that health measures have a strong negative effect on wages for male elderly workers. Our lowest point estimations demonstrate that poor health lowers hourly earnings by 58 percent. These are sizable effects, particularly within the context of a developing country, which does not have a universal social security system and may therefore imply that many elderly individuals work, whether or not their health level permits it. Poor health may also prevent others from working, and thereby contribute to high poverty rates among the elderly. Number 3051 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-353&pub_file_name=pubR-353.pdf application/pdf Susan W. Parker

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45602022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio usa datos de 70, 000 empresas en 107 paises y encuentra importantes efectos del acceso al crédito, el marco regulatorio, la corrupción y en menor medida, del acceso a infraestructuras en el crecimiento de las empresas, medido por fuerza de trabajo. Este artículo se centra en determinar el efecto de estos factores en el crecimiento de empresas de distintos tamaños, con especial énfasis en los factores que detienen el crecimiento de las micro, y pequeñas empresas. Los resultados sugieren que un clima de negocios débil reduce el crecimiento de las empresas y repercute en una mayor fracción de micro y empresas pequeñas, aunque los canales difieren según los distintos aspectos del entorno empresarial. La falta de acceso al crédito es particularmente nociva para las más pequeñas, mientras que la corrupción incide especialmente en las más grandes. Number 4560 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-626&pub_file_name=pubWP-626.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Reyes Aterido Mary Hallward-Driemeier

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41352022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El desempleo se considera uno de los problemas económicos más difíciles que enfrentan los gobiernos del Caribe. Aunque hay variaciones en la medición del desempleo, las estimaciones oficiales obtenidas de sondeos de la fuerza laboral indican que en 1995 la tasa de desempleo varió de 7, 8% en Antigua/Barbuda a 19, 7% en Barbados. En este trabajo se analiza el desempleo en Trinidad y Tobago. Number 4135 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-381&pub_file_name=pubWP-381.pdf application/pdf Andrew S. Downes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4172022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper compares the optimal dynamic choices between policies of mitigation and adaptation for three economies: Brazil, Chile and the United States. The focus is on the optimal role of mitigation and adaptation for “environmentally small economies, ” i. e. , economies that are witnessing an exogenous increase in emissions to which they are contributing very little. The simulations lead to three main conclusions. First, small economies should concentrate their environmental efforts, if any, on adaptation. This is not a recommendation that such economies indulge in free-riding. Instead, it is based on considerations of cost effectiveness, ceteris paribus. Second, small economies that are unable to spend enough on adaptation may end up spending less on mitigation owing to their impoverishment as a result of negative climate shocks. Third, higher mitigation expenditures may arise not only as a result of greater optimal adaptation expenditures, but also because of increased adaptation to the incentives for mitigation provided by richer countries. Number IDB-WP-417 2013-10 Q52 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38204851 application/pdf Omar Chisari Sebastian Galiani Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45992022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper makes use of the 2006 Gallup World Survey, which includes opinions on satisfaction with various aspects of life in 130 countries. Although a very solid relationship is found between satisfaction and income (both across and within countries), raising doubts regarding the well-known Easterlin Paradox, a new paradox arises: “unhappy growth, ” where faster growth rates are accompanied by lower levels of satisfaction. The losses of satisfaction associated with growth are more pronounced in the material domains of life and are greater in richer and more urban societies. At the individual level, although higher incomes tend to be reflected in greater satisfaction, an increase in the income of the social group to which an individual belongs has the opposite effect. The conflictive relationship between satisfaction and income has implications for political economy. In particular, it suggests a simple mechanism for explaining various characteristic traits of economic and social populism. Number 4599 2008-11 D63 E61 I31 O21 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-642&pub_file_name=pubWP-642.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org Juan Camilo Chaparro

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44332022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Substantial attention has been paid in recent years to the risk of maturity mismatch in emerging markets. Although this risk is microeconomic in nature, the evidence advanced thus far has taken the form of macro correlations. This paper empirically evaluates this mechanism at the micro level by using a database of over 3, 000 publicly traded firms from fifteen emerging markets. The paper measures the risk of short-term exposure by estimating, at the firm level, the effect on investment of the interaction of short-term exposure and aggregate capital flows. This effect is (statistically) zero, contrary to the prediction of the maturity-mismatch hypothesis. This conclusion is robust to using a variety of different estimators, alternative measures of capital flows, and controls for devaluation effects and access to international capital. The paper finds evidence that short-term-exposed firms pay higher financing costs and liquidate assets at fire sale prices, but the paper does not find that this reduction in net worth translates into a drop in investment. Number 4433 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-545&pub_file_name=pubWP-545.pdf application/pdf Hoyt Bleakley Kevin Cowan

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31262022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the institutional determinants of incentives to repay in Costa Rica and their effects on defaults and the design of financial contracts. Enforcement mechanisms help to determine how much is paid back to creditors and how much shareholders receive as dividends. Theoretically, however, the most important effects will be on the observable characteristics of contracts, as rational agents foresee the incentives of other parties. As courts enforce contracts and punish defaulters, they determine the form contracts take and the magnitude and direction of investments. The paper contains findings on the practices of financial intermediaries that are discussed in the context of contract theory, with a focus on the formal financial intermediaries that are scattered throughout the country. Much of the information comes from primary sources, including a sample of almost 1, 700 civil trials and a detailed survey on the credit policies of 31 intermediaries. This paper reviews the creditor-borrower relationship at all stages—ex ante, interim, and ex post. The evidence supports the importance of collateral and other ex post repayment incentives. The evidence also suggests that, contrary to the common view, banks are not passive lenders. They remain alert to how well projects perform and rely on previous experience and a rather sophisticated informational network in granting credit. Number 3126 2001-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-429&pub_file_name=pubR-429.pdf application/pdf Alexander Monge-Naranjo Javier Cascante Luis J. Hall

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44582022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Déficits fiscales que en promedio son apenas 1, 4% del PIB, coeficientes de endeudamiento a la baja, cancelaciones anticipadas de las deudas con el Fondo Monetario Internacional y recompras masivas de los títulos Brady, que hace quince años fueron la última tabla de salvación para los gobiernos endeudados en exceso. Esto no parece América Latina, la región del mundo con la mayor tradición de inestabilidad macroeconómica y la historia más larga de incumplimientos de deuda pública. Sin embargo, estos son algunos de los eventos fiscales que están ocurriendo hacia comienzos de 2006, en un momento especialmente favorable para la región. Number 4458 2006-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-559&pub_file_name=pubWP-559.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Mauricio Cardenas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-tn-5082022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This report presents sample characteristics and summary statistics from the Brazilian Electoral Panel Study (BEPS) project. The survey, composed of three waves, was conducted in Brazil in 2010, a presidential election year, and is composed of 4, 611 interviews with 2, 669 voting-age Brazilians. Number IDB-TN-508 2013-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37719137 application/pdf Barry Ames Fabiana Machado fabianam@iadb.org Lucio Renno David Samuels Amy Smith Cesar Zucco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31442022-12-22RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this paper is to examine the changes and dynamics of household structure, human capital and the returns to education, labor earnings, women’s labor force participation and investment in human capital. The approach used in the analysis is the so-called "cohort technique, " which consists of following across time men and women born in the same year or year spell. The main sources of information for this work are the quarterly Household Surveys beginning in 1976. With such information a database of more than 6 million observations (workers, parents, children, etc. ) was constructed. The research results show that the number of children of the younger parents has drastically decreased. This process has been accompanied by a significant increase in women’s labor force participation and higher women’s school attainment. The study also points out that the school attainment of the younger generation of women is higher than men’s and that the income gap between men and women of the new generation, after controlling for education, is lower than the gap in older generations. Finally, the study indicates that human capital accumulation has been very unequal for different income groups. The children of low educated parents achieve low levels of education both in old and new generations. Thus, escaping from the poverty trap is as difficult today as in the past, as education opportunities are concentrated in the middle and high-income groups. Number 3144 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-449&pub_file_name=pubR-449.pdf application/pdf Jairo Núñez Fabio Sánchez Torres

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4112019-10-19RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents an analytical overview of recent contributions to the literature on the policy implications of capital flows in emerging and developing countries, focusing specifically on capital inflows as well as on the links between inflows and subsequent capital-flow reversals. The objective is to clarify the policy challenges that such inflows pose and to evaluate the policy alternatives available to the recipient countries to cope with those challenges. A large menu of possible policy responses to large capital inflows is considered, and experience with the use of such policies is reviewed. A policy `decision tree`-i. e. , an algorithm for determining how to deploy policies in response to an exogenous inflow episode- is developed, and strategies to achieve resilience to both inflows and outflows in a world where exogenous events may frequently drive capital flows in both directions are discussed. Number IDB-WP-411 2013-05 F32 F34 F36 F62 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37797908 application/pdf Peter Montiel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-pb-1822019-10-19RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Latin America has a comparative advantage in deforestation compared to other forms of climate change mitigation. Thus, to the extent that Latin America should engage in mitigation, the optimal climate change policy should manage these advantages by generating incentives in Latin America to deal with forestry. This paper describes the problem of deforestation and studies the market failures that arise in relation to forestry emission problems, analyzing them from a global public good perspective. The paper additionally describes other problems related to forestry emission issues and presents a non-exhaustive review of the solutions currently proposed to address this issue. The paper concludes with policy recommendations. Number IDB-PB-182 2013-08 D71 D79 F18 F53 F64 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38008395 application/pdf Sebastian Galiani Manuel Puente Federico Weinschelbaum

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48212019-10-19RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Climate change is changing the frequency and intensity of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs), particularly in poor developing countries, and the international community is increasingly suggesting the design of adaptation funds to resolve this situation. Measures of vulnerability and exposure to EWEs are a critical instrument in guaranteeing a transparent, efficient and equitable allocation process in these funds. Latin American countries, which contribute little to climate change but are hard-hit by EWEs, urgently need new indicators to back up their claims for financial and technical assistance. Using DesInventar data, the paper develops an innovative Disaster Exposure Index (DEI) that encompasses many disasters' impacts. DEI calculations indicate an unexpected scenario where some regions usually considered resilient are found to be exposed. The results call for further development of regional indicators to facilitate the international, national and sub- national allocation of adaptation funds. Number 4821 2013-01 F64 H12 H84 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37417004 application/pdf Adrian Garlati

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48242019-10-19RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The effectiveness of carbon markets in the reduction of emissions at minimal cost requires several conditions. In a dynamic context the inter-temporal dimension adds new conditions for the desirable performance of the market, and some tradeoffs. One tradeoff is related to the duration of permits. A long permit allows the private agent to optimize using a longer time horizon, but increases the risk associated with the initial allocation of the permits, for example the risk of generating market power. A short permit generates problems with the private agent's planning horizon but allows the planner to correct initial misallocations, in particular in new markets or those that face important uncertainty. These issues are important in the implementation of these systems, especially in developing countries such as the Latin American ones studied in this paper. Number 4824 2012-11 D47 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37286730 application/pdf Jorge Fernandez Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper, social mobility is measured by looking at the extent to which family background determines socioeconomic success. Roughly speaking, social mobility can be measure by means of two distinct types of correlations: intergenerational correlations and sibling correlations. Number 4162 1999-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-395&pub_file_name=pubWP-395.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria Momi Dahan

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este articulo caracteriza los rasgos principales del proceso de diseño de políticas en Chile. El articulo resalta la influencia de las instituciones políticas en dicho proceso y examina la conexión entre el diseño de políticas y el resultado final. Los rasgos principales del proceso de diseño Chileno de políticas son el sistema electoral y el sistema de partidos asociativo, caracterizados por dos coaliciones establecidas, un Ejecutivo poderoso con el control sobre la agenda política, una magistratura independiente, una burocracia que es relativamente libre de corrupción juzgada por los criterios de la OECD, y una serie de vetos en el proceso de diseño de políticas que permiten a facciones afectadas bloquear el cambio de políticas. En consistencia con la estructura teórica de Spiller y Tommasi (2003), el número de actores que interactúan repetidamente y la predictabilidad de la implementación de políticas y una aplicación legal conducen a un proceso de diseño de políticas en el cual los costos de operación son bajos y los intercambios políticos ínter temporales son creíbles. Los grupos de oposición que ejercen su derecho a veto le dan a estos intercambios ínter temporales su credibilidad, aunque también pueden bloquear las reformas. Analizando las políticas desde una perspectiva transversal, encontramos que las políticas en las cuales los intereses de los políticos son mejor representados y las cuales llevan a un cambio exógeno rápido, están asociadas con mas éxito hacia la reforma. En contraste, las políticas que no comparten ningún interés con la rama ejecutiva y con los varios grupos de oposición, tienden a estancarse. Number 3223 2006-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-521&pub_file_name=pubR-521.pdf application/pdf Joaquín Vial Cristobal Aninat John Landregan Patricio Navia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the extent to which individuals trust, reciprocate, cooperate and pool risk by using a battery of field experiments containing the trust game, the voluntary contributions mechanism and the risk pooling game; applied in six capital cities in Latin America. The results suggest that: (i) on average, the propensity to trust and cooperate among Latin Americans is remarkably similar to that found in other regions of the world; (ii) expectations about the behavior of other players are the main driver of trust, reciprocity and cooperation; and (iii) behaviors involving socialization, trust and cooperation are closely interconnected. Number 4577 2008-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-635&pub_file_name=pubWP-635.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Juan Camilo Cardenas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40182019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The Mexican oil boom was characterized by a period of high investment, followed by capital flight. The private sector and households responded to the 1977-1981 windfall by attaining high savings rates. On the other hand, the Mexican government, the proprietor of the state oil company and the principal beneficiary of the oil boom, used windfall revenues to finance unsustainable spending and even engage in dissaving. These policies produced macroeconomic dislocations that made Mexico highly vulnerable to the inevitable external shocks. Number 4018 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-314&pub_file_name=pubWP-314.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the microeconomic interventions used to complement Washington Consensus reforms in Latin America. It maintains that the kind of interventions currently in vogue in most countries lack a sound theoretical and empirical foundation or are applied in a manner likely to prove ineffective. Arguing that the countries of the region should engage in selective interventions aimed at discovering new profitable activities (horizontal policies) and at creating innovation clusters (vertical policies), the paper discusses how such a strategy could be implemented. Both horizontal and vertical policies are important, although the appropriate mix depends on a country’s stage of development. Pessimism about Latin American economies’ ability to undertake this more sophisticated set of microeconomic interventions is an exaggerated reaction to the problems of corruption and capture encountered by import-substitution policies. At least in some countries, there is scope for a carefully executed strategy of the type discussed here. Number 4393 2005-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-524&pub_file_name=pubWP-524.pdf application/pdf Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47912019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper empirically explores the effects of payroll taxes, value-added taxes and corporate income taxes on a variety of labor market outcomes such as employment, unemployment, informality, and wages. Using national-level data on labor variables for 15 Latin American countries, the results indicate that the effects of each tax are distinctly different and may depend on several aspects of labor and tax institutions. Payroll taxes reduce employment and increase labor costs when their benefits are not valued by workers, but otherwise increase labor participation and do not raise labor costs. Value-added taxes increase informality and reduce skilled labor demand. In contrast, corporate income taxes may help reduce informality, especially among low-education workers but, when tax enforcement capabilities are strong, may reduce labor participation and employment of medium- and high-education workers. Number 4791 2012-09 H24 H25 J21 J30 J32 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37120457 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org Deisy Johanna Fajardo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using the 2003 and 2008 Quality of Life Surveys, this paper identifies the factors that affect housing tenure decisions in Colombia. Households with higher incomes are more likely to purchase than to rent, and the choice of formal housing is positively associated with wealth. Households eligible for social housing subsidies are more likely to purchase than to rent, and those working in the informal sector are more likely to purchase informal dwellings. Subsidies and access to mortgage credit have a large positive impact on demand. Finally, savings have a positive effect on demand in 2008, but not in 2003. The positive effect on demand of both subsidies and credit is explained by demand for low- income housing. Number 4736 2011-10 G21 O54 R21 R28 R38 R58 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36485490 application/pdf Maria Angelica Arbelaez Roberto Steiner Alejandro Becerra Daniel Wills

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio busca cuantificar actividad sexual, embarazo y maternidad adolescente en Bolivia utilizando la Encuesta de Demografía y Salud más reciente. Los resultados descriptivos sugieren que la actividad sexual, el embarazo y la maternidad adolescente son más prevalentes entre aquellas jóvenes que tienen mayor probabilidad de ser vulnerables y socialmente excluidas. Además, la alta tasa de incidencia de embarazos no deseados entre adolescentes bolivianas sugiere que es necesario introducir acciones del gobierno para prevenir embarazos adolescentes. Por último, los resultados de las estimaciones indican que no sólo los factores socioeconómicos y demográficos, sino también los resultados esperados de la maternidad adolescente, los factores de fertilidad regionales, y el conocimiento sobre --y uso de--métodos de planificación familiar están significativamente relacionados a la probabilidad de embarazo/maternidad adolescente. Number 4539 2008-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-615&pub_file_name=pubWP-615.pdf application/pdf Mariana Alfonso

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using large household data sets from rural Mexican communities, where a majority of indigenous people live, we analyze the potential explanatory factors for low educational attainment of indigenous children. We find that, overall, indigenous children fare worse than their non-indigenous classmates. Nevertheless, there is important heterogeneity within the indigenous group. In particular, monolingual indigenous children (those who speak only an indigenous language) perform much worse in school than bilingual indigenous children who speak Spanish as a second language. Number 3134 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-438&pub_file_name=pubR-438.pdf application/pdf Susan W. Parker Luis Rubalcava Graciela Teruel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Personal income taxation remains relatively low in many developing countries despite recent democratic advancement and rapid economic growth; this is hard to reconcile with standard political economy models of taxation. This paper argues that the details of political institutions help to explain these low levels of personal income taxation. In particular, legislative malapportionment enables rich elites to have disproportionate political influence. Because over-represented districts tend to be dominated by parties aligned with the elite, these groups can block legislative attempts to introduce progressive taxes. Using a sample of more than 50 countries (including 17 across Latin America) between 1990 and 2007, this paper finds that i) countries with historically more unequal distributions of wealth and income systematically present higher levels of legislative malapportionment, and ii) higher levels of malapportionment are associated with lower shares of personal income taxes in GDP. Number 4724 2011-11 D70 D78 H24 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36555179 application/pdf Martin Ardanaz Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El objetivo principal de este trabajo es analizar la sensibilidad de las cuentas públicas argentinas en los años noventa respecto a las fluctuaciones del nivel de actividad y otros factores macroeconómicos, y evaluar la sostenibilidad financiera fiscal en el mediano plazo. Se construye para esto un modelo que expresa las componentes desagregadas de ingresos y gastos públicos como funciones de variables macroeconómicas, descompuestas en sus componentes tendencial y cíclica. Con estos instrumentos, se elaboran simulaciones de las series de ingresos, gastos y déficit sobre todo el período 1991-96, ajustadas por el ciclo macroeconómico. El análisis y la comparación de las simulaciones permite discutir las orientaciones de los cambios en la política fiscal y la sensibilidad de las cuentas públicas al ciclo y a los cambios de precios relativos. El mismo modelo es utilizado para realizar proyecciones para el período 1997-2001. Los principales resultados se presentan en el capítulo segundo. Number 3014 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-315&pub_file_name=pubR-315.pdf application/pdf Oscar Centralogo Mario Damill Roberto Frenkel Juan P. Jimenez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La apertura y la integración financieras han producido resultados decepcionantes. Se suponía que debían producir una situación en la que todos salieran ganando: la idea era que los capitales fluyeran de países industrializados maduros, de abundante capital y bajo rendimiento hacia países emergentes jóvenes, de escaso capital y elevado rendimiento. El crecimiento que gozarían los países receptores se aceleraría y tanto los países dadores como los receptores se beneficiarían y mejorarían las oportunidades de diversificación para todos. Y además, los diseñadores de políticas de los países emergentes adquirirían la disciplina que representa la pérdida del acceso a sus mercados financieros nacionales cautivos. Number 4175 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-402&pub_file_name=pubWP-402.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper provides evidence on what affects the marginal cost and availability of bank credit for firms in Argentina. We study in particular how banks use different pieces of private and public information to screen firms and overcome informational asymmetries in the credit market. While some private information, such as balance sheet data, is transferable, private information generated in relationships is not. To capture the closeness of bank relationships, we resort to the concentration of bank credit and the number of credit lines in a bank. We also consider public information available in the Central de Deudores. The cost of credit is measured using overdrafts, the most expensive line of credit, at the bank that charges the highest rate for overdrafts. We find that the cost of credit is smaller for a firm with a close relationship to the marginal bank. Firms with large assets, a high sales/assets ratio, and a low debt/assets ratio pay a lower interest rate at the margin. A good credit history (no debt arrears and no bounced checks) and collateral also reduce the marginal interest rate. The availability of credit is measured by unused credit lines as a proportion of total liabilities with the main bank. The availability of credit depends positively on a close relationship with the main bank. Large assets, a high return on assets, a high sales/assets ratio, a low debt/assets ratio, a good credit history, and collateral lead to higher credit availability. Our measure of unused credit lines is less ambiguous than traditional measures such as leverage, which may indicate financial distress rather than availability of credit. Number 3140 2002-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-444&pub_file_name=pubR-444.pdf application/pdf Jorge M. Streb Javier Bolzico Pablo Druck Alejandro Henke José Rutman Walter Sosa Escudero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates the impact of financial development on industry-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth using a largely unexploited panel of 77 countries with data for 26 manufacturing industries for the years 1963 to 2003. A significant relationship is found between financial development and industry-level TFP growth when controlling for country-time and industry-time fixed effects. The results are both statistically and economically significant. TFP growth can accelerate up to 0.6 percent per year, depending on the external finance requirement of industries, following a one standard deviation increase in financial development. The results are robust to different samples and specifications. Financial development, TFP growth, Volatility Number 4630 2009-06 D24 E44 O47 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-682&pub_file_name=pubWP-682.pdf application/pdf Francisco Arizala Eduardo Cavallo Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Investigaciones empíricas sugieren la presencia de una prima salarial en el sector público, cuyos motivos se analizan en este trabajo. Los resultados demuestran que las mujeres reciben una prima mayor y que la prima disminuye según lo hace la capacitación. La estabilidad laboral disminuye el incentivo de trabajar con dedicación y obliga al sector público a pagar salarios más elevados. Por lo tanto, se puede emplear la prima salarial del sector público como indicador de la ineficiencia del sector público. Number 4177 1999-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-403&pub_file_name=pubWP-403.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper applies a method designed by the BID to monitor of urban quality based on the combination of two approaches: hedonic prices and lifestile satisfaction. This combination allows the assessment of local public resources from both the market point of view and that of profitability. Unlike other monitoring systems, this one focuses on few dimensions (those related to the occupancy of the urban surroundings) and offers valuable information for the design and prioritization of public policies. The results of the application of the method for the city of Manizales, Colombia, reveal that, although for some public resources the assessment carried out by the market is suitable, for others there is an additional assessment represented in the well-being passed on to the inhabitants and which the market does not manage to capture. Number 4739 2011-06 D60 H41 R28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id= application/pdf Liliana Velasquez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Although the region remains highly centralized, the tendency toward decentralization is quite strong. Not only is a larger portion of the general government budget executed from the subnational government level, the autonomy that these governments have in deciding how much to spend and what to spend on is increasing as well. In this context, it is important to analyze the possible effects of the move toward decentralization on fiscal performance. Number 4112 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-368&pub_file_name=pubWP-368.pdf application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El objetivo del presente documento es ser una herramienta al hacedor de política pública en la incorporación de estrategias de manejo de riesgos catastróficos. El documento busca dar una visión integral del manejo de riesgos catastróficos, para ello, analiza el manejo de riesgos como herramientas para usuarios muy particulares, como lo son los individuos, las empresas gestoras de riesgos (aseguradoras y reaseguradoras) e introduce al gobierno como un agente económico que también maneja riesgos, en particular, expone alternativas de manejo de riesgos para economías en desarrollo. Number 4613 2009-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-663&pub_file_name=pubWP-663_esp.pdf application/pdf Victor Cardenas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint A strategy of inclusion of adaptation and mitigation expenses in a model of optimal growth under threat of climate change calamities is discussed in these exploratory notes. Calamity is the result of a shock that reduces the utility level (even to extinction forever) and/or triggers a fundamental change of the economic structure. Mitigation expenses reduce the long-run probability of a calamity or the speed of convergence to it; adaptation expenses help to improve the standard of living after the calamity. The willingness to contribute to those expenses and the effects on the long-run capital stock of the economy depend on perceptions on how they will modify the law of evolution of probabilities of the shock and the standard of living after the shock. The choice between a clean technology and one that increases GHG emissions is also discussed. Climate Change, Growth, Adaptation, Mitigation Number 4685 2010-09 O44 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-212&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-212.pdf application/pdf Omar Chisari

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La economía venezolana se ha visto sometida desde mediados de la década de los setenta a un proceso de marcada inestabilidad y volatilidad, causado fundamentalmente por los shocks provenientes del mercado petrolero. La política fiscal ha jugado un rol determinante en la transmisión de esos shocks al resto de la economía. Por una parte, el gasto público ha mostrado un comportamiento procíclico en relación a los ingresos petroleros, transmitiendo la volatilidad de estos últimos a través de la demanda agregada interna y por tanto en las presiones inflacionarias y en el crecimiento económico. Por otra parte, el uso del tipo de cambio como mecanismo de corrección fiscal en algunas oportunidades y en otras como ancla nominal, conjuntamente con el comportamiento procíclico del gasto, han creado una situación prolongada de "stop and go" o de expansiones y ajustes recurrentes y transitorios con elevados costos de crecimiento, inflación y empobrecimiento de la población. Number 3016 1998-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-317&pub_file_name=pubR-317.pdf application/pdf Gustavo Garcia Osio Rafael Rodriguez Balza Luis Marcano Ricardo Penfold Gustavo Sanchez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este artículo, que hace las veces de introducción de un conjunto de estudios preparados por la Oficina del Economista principal del BID, presenta las percepciones de ciudadanos y empresas latinoamericanas sobre el problema del empleo. Se compara dichas percepciones con las condiciones de los mercados laborales de la región. Number 4115 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-371&pub_file_name=pubWP-371.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The distance between perception and reality with respect to the social domains of life is often striking. Using survey data collected on Latin American countries, this paper provides an overview of the main empirical findings on the gaps between perception and reality in four social domains-health, employment, the perception of security, and social ranking. The overview emphasizes the psychological biases that may explain the gaps. Biases associated with cultural values are very relevant with respect to health and job satisfaction. Cultural differences across countries are pronounced in perceptions of health, while cultural differences across socioeconomic groups are more apparent with respect to job satisfaction. Affect and availability heuristics are the dominant sources of bias in the case of perceptions of security. The formation of subjective social rankings appears to be less culturally dependent but more dependent on the socioeconomic development in the country. The gaps between objective and subjective indicators in the social domains of life are a rich source of data to help understand how perceptions are formed, identify important aspects of people's lives that do not appear in official indicators, inform public debate on social policy, and shed light on public attitudes on key social issues. Number IDB-WP-423 2013-08 I19 J28 Z13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38011024 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) América Latina es una región inestable y propensa a las crisis, con sistemas inadecuados de seguridad social. Por lo tanto, los pobres de larga data al igual que los pobres más recientes sufren considerablemente durante las crisis. Además, el gasto social en la región es cíclico, pero en menor medida que el gasto total, lo que indica que la eficacia de las políticas sociales compensadoras concebidas para proteger a los más vulnerables contra las crisis están limitadas por los ajustes durante las recesiones. Las causas de las políticas fiscales cíclicas radican en las limitantes políticas del ahorro durante los períodos de crecimiento, combinadas con una solvencia limitada durante las recesiones, y una mayor inestabilidad económica y una baja participación de mecanismos automáticos de estabilización en el presupuesto. Evaluamos las opciones de políticas destinadas a reducir la naturaleza cíclica de la política fiscal, tales como los fondos de estabilización, las reglas fiscales y la reforma de las instituciones encargadas del presupuesto, y abogamos por propuestas de políticas integradas basadas en una mayor medida de análisis de países específicos, tales como la Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal de Brasil. Number 4334 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-487&pub_file_name=pubWP-487.pdf application/pdf Miguel Braun Luciano di Gresia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presentan la teoría y elementos de juicio sobre la relación que hay entre la desigualdad y la calidad de las instituciones. Proponemos un modelo en el que cada una de ellas refuerza dinámicamente a la otra y ponemos a prueba esta relación con un amplio conjunto de medidas institucionales. Comprobamos la doble causalidad entre una mejor calidad institucional y una distribución más equitativa del ingreso, pero también demostramos que el vínculo de ésta domina al de aquélla. Se muestra que estos resultados son valederos con diversas especificaciones y fuentes de datos que cubren varios períodos de tiempo. Number 4362 2004-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-506&pub_file_name=pubWP-506.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes gender differences in three Chilean professional labor markets, Business, Law and Medicine, utilizing a new and rich data set collected for this purpose. The results show that differences in wages attributed to gender are only present in the legal profession. In Business/Economics, a vector of current family condition eliminates the gender effect and in Medicine, taking into account hours worked, size of firm and region also eliminates gender differences. The paper further shows that individuals’ perceived locus of control (internal or external) is relevant in explaining the distribution of earnings. Number 3248 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-545&pub_file_name=pubR-545.pdf application/pdf David Bravo Claudia Sanhueza Sergio Urzua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper exploits a rich collection of household surveys to investigate the wage differential between the public and private sectors in 17 Latin American countries during the 1980s and 1990s. The paper also studies how the sector of employment affects the gender wage gap. The paper finds very small premia for male workers and large and significant premia for female workers. The paper also finds that, on average, Latin American women earn 30 percent less than men with similar skills and that approximately one third of this gender gap results from lack of access to formal sector employment. Number 4229 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-431&pub_file_name=pubWP-431.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Una buena estrategia de gestión de pasivos debe contribuir a minimizar el costo del endeudamiento en el mediano y largo plazo. El objetivo no es economizar hasta el último punto base en cada operación, sino más bien hacer bajar el costo general del endeudamiento. En este trabajo se emplea la experiencia de Argentina para ilustrar algunos elementos importantes del diseño de una estrategia de gestión de los pasivos. Se toman en cuenta las características específicas del mercado de capitales argentino y de los instrumentos de deuda que hay disponibles. Number 4105 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-364&pub_file_name=pubWP-364.pdf application/pdf Miguel A. Kiguel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza por primera vez la relación que hay entre diversas medidas de propiedad y control y niveles de separación con el valor y el desempeño de una empresa, partiendo de una muestra de 108 compañías no financieras que negociaron sus acciones durante el período de 1998 a 2002. Se descubrió que la presencia de accionistas tenedores de bloques considerables de acciones ejerce un efecto positivo en el valor y el desempeño de una empresa, lo cual convalida el enfoque de monitoreo positivo de los grandes accionistas; pero también se descubrió que esta relación no es monotónica, lo que implica que cuando la separación del control y la propiedad tiende a aumentar, se produce un efecto negativo sobre el valor de la empresa. En este trabajo también se cubren las primeras estimaciones de un sondeo de prácticas de conducción empresarial realizado en 2004 entre 43 empresas no financieras de Colombia. Los puntajes obtenidos en el índice de conducción empresarial (CGI, por sus siglas en inglés), sugieren que la aplicación de buenas prácticas de conducción empresarial en empresas colombianas ha sido lenta y regular, según la medición de un índice promedio que se ubica por debajo de la mitad del valor máximo alcanzable. Lamentablemente no se halló respaldo alguno a las teorías recientes que predicen un vínculo positivo entre las buenas prácticas de conducción y el desempeño empresariales según la medición de la CGI. A lo sumo, hay una relación positiva con el subíndice, pero los resultados no son estadísticamente significativos en general. Number 3217 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-518&pub_file_name=pubR-518.pdf application/pdf Luis H. Gutiérrez Carlos Pombo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este documento se revisa la obra publicada teórica y empírica sobre el papel de los bancos propiedad del Estado y también se presentan algunos resultados nuevos y un análisis de validez. Se muestra que la banca propiedad del Estado de países en desarrollo tiene costos fiscales porque se caracteriza por un menor rendimiento que los bancos privados del mismo tipo (por otro lado, no hay elementos que comprueben que los bancos propiedad del Estado de países industrializados sean menos rentables que sus contrapartes privadas). A continuación señalamos que esta prueba no se puede usar como argumento contra la existencia de la banca propiedad del Estado, ya que esta baja rentabilidad puede ser producto de la participación de los bancos propiedad del Estado en proyectos caracterizados por una baja inversión del sector privado y elevados retornos sociales. Si bien no hallamos pruebas de que la presencia de bancos propiedad del Estado promueva el crecimiento económico o el desarrollo financiero, también hallamos que las pruebas de que esas instituciones conducen a un menor crecimiento y desarrollo financiero no son tan sólidas como se creía. Number 4380 2004-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-517&pub_file_name=pubWP-517.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Alejandro Micco Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se presenta una panorámica comparada de los patrones de movilidad en 14 países latinoamericanos entre 1992 y 2003. Se presenta un conjunto de estimadores de la idea tradicional de movilidad del ingreso, así como en cuanto a la movilidad alrededor de los límites entre la pobreza extrema y la pobreza moderada. Los cálculos hacen pensar que en la región hay niveles muy elevados de inmovilidad incondicional que dependen del tiempo. Sin embargo, la introducción de factores socioeconómicos y personales hace reducir el estimado de la inmovilidad del ingreso aproximadamente en 30%. También hay grandes diferencias en la movilidad del ingreso de un país a otro. Se determina que la edad, el sexo y, en menor grado, el nivel de formación del cabeza de familia y las características de la vivienda tienen un papel significativo en las variaciones de la incidencia de la pobreza. Number 4558 2007-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-625&pub_file_name=pubWP-625.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Giorgina Pizzolitto José Cuesta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este sondeo de políticas industriales en América Latina y el Caribe presenta dos afirmaciones básicas: (1) el período desde finales de los años 80 y todos los 90 fue de transición de las políticas industriales del modelo de sustitución de importaciones hacia políticas industriales adecuadas para economías nacionales abiertas en una economía mundial más cohesionada; y (2) que este período de transición no ha terminado y, por ende, es prematuro emitir juicios sobre la eficacia de este conjunto, aún emergente, de políticas. Number 4282 2001-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-459&pub_file_name=pubWP-459.pdf application/pdf Alberto Melo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the reasons behind Central Government (CG) bailouts of Subnational Governments (SNGs) in the case of Uruguay. We argued that Uruguay represents a good example of the risks of fiscal decentralization, in the context of adjustment policies, and when SNGs` responsibilities and resources have not been carefully defined. We show that, in unitary countries where SNGs lack the opportunities to misbehave that they have in federal countries (e. g. , public debt issuance, international borrowing), SNG officials find ways to finance deficits through non-compliance with politically contestable obligations. In particular, SNGs in Uruguay finance their deficits by accumulating debts with other government agencies and obtaining discretionary transfers from the CG. Through statistical analyses we show that debts and deficits are mainly related to vertical fiscal imbalances and economic conditions in the SN jurisdictions. Yet, the analysis of recent bailout episodes suggests that institutions and political factors play a role (i. e. , they are important ex-post factors). This implies that bailouts have been more than simple compensations for structural imbalances, thus creating opportunities for strategic behavior on the part of SNG authorities (partly confirmed by the disparate fiscal performance of Montevideo vis-à-vis the rest of the country). Number 3152 2002-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-459&pub_file_name=pubR-459.pdf application/pdf Fernando Filgueira Fernando Lorenzo Juan Andrés Moraes Herman Kamil Andrés Rius

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using panel data for Peru for the period 1994-2000, we find that when households receive two or more services jointly, the welfare increases of the household, as measured by changes in consumption, are larger than when services are provided separately. Such an increase appears to be more than proportional, as F-tests on the coefficients of the corresponding regressors confirm. Thus, we find that bundling of services may help realize welfare effects. Number 4337 2004-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-489&pub_file_name=pubWP-489.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Jesko Hentschel Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint ( Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se demuestra que los déficit presupuestarios constituyen una porción relativamente pequeña del crecimiento de la deuda y que la conciliación entre las existencias y los flujos, que a menudo se considera una entidad residual, es uno de los factores determinantes de la dinámica de la deuda. Tras explicarse la importancia de la conciliación entre las existencias y los flujos se demuestra que los pasivos contingentes y los efectos en el balance general contribuyen en parte a esta entidad residual. Number 4450 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-554&pub_file_name=pubWP-554.pdf application/pdf Dany Jaimovich Ugo Panizza Camil F.S. Campos

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo recoge datos institucionales objetivos no empleados anteriormente para ofrecer elementos de juicio sobre la relación de causalidad que hay entre la conducta de procura de rentas y la democracia en Uruguay, un país donde tanto dichas conductas como los altibajos políticos han variado ampliamente en los últimos 80 años, pero donde la heterogeneidad etnolingüística y la desigualdad del ingreso se han mantenido en niveles bajos por muchísimo tiempo. Esto último ayuda a mejor identificar algunas interacciones políticas "puras" y cómo las mismas se vinculan con resultados de procura de rentas. Descubrimos que la presencia y la duración de los regímenes democráticos parecen haber propiciado una disminución de las conductas de procura de rentas en Uruguay, aunque dicha disminución no parece haber tenido efecto alguno en la calidad del sistema democrático del país. Aunque la duración del sistema democrático puede influir en las conductas de procura de rentas, éstas también muestran una relación de causalidad con la duración de la democracia. Number 4436 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-546&pub_file_name=pubWP-546.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the institutional determinants of economic growth in Latin America by taking advantage of recent empirical research that employs subjective and objective measures to test for a possible "Northian" explanation that links institutional quality and economic growth. I provide a framework that helps better understand the policymakers` choices and persistence regarding inward-looking policies that were pursued between the 1930s and the 1980s by arguing that in the Latin American case Olson`s (1982) idea of encompassing interest should be expanded to cover not only the economic stakes of power holders, but also, their political stakes, somewhat along the lines of work by Robinson (1997). Number 4255 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-446&pub_file_name=pubWP-446.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Luisa Zanforlin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes gender differences in the Chilean labor market, formally addressing the selection of individuals into schooling levels and its impact on gender gaps. The paper utilizes a new and rich data set containing information on labor market outcomes, schooling attainment and schooling performance, as well as variables characterizing individuals’ family background. Although the results show statistically significant gender differences in several dimensions of the Chilean labor market, these gaps depend largely on individuals’ level of schooling. Nonetheless, these findings should not be taken as decisive evidence of discrimination in the Chilean labor market, as future research based on better information might explain some of the unexplained labor market gaps. Number 3258 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-558&pub_file_name=pubR-558.pdf application/pdf David Bravo Claudia Sanhueza Sergio Urzua

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preprint En los esfuerzos por entender la crisis de balanza de pagos de diciembre de 1994, una pregunta ha ocupado lugar preponderante: ¿A que se ha debido el peculiar comportamiento que tuvo durante los últimos diez años el ahorro interno en México? Las respuestas a esta pregunta tienen un valor que no es sólo académico; de ellas se deben obtener lecciones de política económica y sugerencias para procurar un crecimiento económico sostenido sin problemas de balanza de pagos. En esta investigación se llevaron a cabo tres tipos de análisis, complementarios entre sí, para contestar la interrogante planteada y así entender los determinantes de la tan pronunciada caída registrada por el ahorro privado en México desde 1988. Number 3043 1998-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-346&pub_file_name=pubR-346.pdf application/pdf Angel Calderon Madrid

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Estimation of conventional Taylor rules for Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru shows that central banks increase their repo rate in response to increases in the output gap and, except in Peru, to deviations of inflation expectations from target. Using a Markov-Switching methodology, it is found that, in the presence of external shocks, Chile, Colombia and Peru temporarily abandoned their conventional reaction function. The Taylor Rule is expanded and variables are included related to exchange rate misalignments and to domestic credit developments; limited evidence is found that countries have used some form of integrated inflation targeting. There is strong evidence that intervention in F/X markets is determined by exchange rate misalignments rather than by exchange rate volatility and that most countries seem particularly concerned with a strong currency. Central banks appear to have pursued an inflation objective using a standard Taylor rule and an exchange rate objective through interventions in the F/X market. Number IDB-WP-473 2014-01 E31 E52 E61 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38355397 application/pdf Adolfo Barajas Roberto Steiner Leonardo Villar Cesar Pabon

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Uruguay’s inability to sustain high levels of economic growth cannot be fully explained by external shocks, the prevailing institutional setting or the level of human capital accumulation. Instead, low investment in knowledge capital stands as a most likely explanation. This hypothesis is supported by empirical evidence analyzed in this study. Returns on innovation were found to be significant, promoting a non-negligible acceleration of labor productivity gains. However, the propensity to innovate and the intensity of the effort expended critically depend on the firm’s already having a high internal efficiency level. As firms’ behavior is differentiated depending on the type of innovation output pursued, the significantly higher frequency of processes relative to product-innovative firms is matched by the larger impact of novel processes with respect to products on labor productivity. However, the degree of novelty of process innovation is significantly inferior to that of product innovation. The research points to inadequate choices of input mixes as the underlying cause. Policy recommendations center on finding adequate channels to generate and disseminate information on the optimal input mixes depending on the type of innovation output sought. Innovation input, Innovation output, Productivity growth, CDM model Number 4680 2010-08 O31 O32 D21 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-191&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-191.pdf application/pdf Adriana Cassoni Magdalena Ramada

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a CES function to estimate the constant elasticity of substitution in consumption for non-tradables relative to tradables in a dependent economy framework. The methodology for generating data on real consumption of tradable and non-tradable goods, real prices of tradable and non-tradable goods and real absorption is based on the Bolivian Input-Output Matrix, producing quarterly data for the period 1990. 1 to 2002. 4. The data identify Bolivia as a country highly open to trade, with an average ratio of 55 percent in the value of exports and imports relative to GDP, non-tradable production accounting for 52 percent of GDP, and differences in the behavior of the internal and external real exchange rates. The HEGY test is used to identify and separate out seasonal unit roots in the data. A cointegration relationship was found between real absorption, the non-tradable to tradable consumption ratio and the non-tradable to tradable price ratio, suggesting inelasticity of substitution. Number 3181 2005-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-488&pub_file_name=pubR-488.pdf application/pdf Gover Barja Daza Javier Monterrey Arce Sergio Villarroel Bohrt

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines a much overlooked link between credit markets and formalization: since access to bank credit typically requires compliance with tax and employment legislation, firms are more likely to incur such formalization costs once bank credit is more widely available at lower cost. The relevance of this credit channel is gauged using the Rajan-Zingales measure of financial dependence and a difference-in-differences approach applied to household survey data from Brazil. It is found that formalization rates increase with financial deepening, especially in sectors where firms are typically more dependent on external finance. Also found is that, decomposing shifts in formalization rates into those within each firm size category and those between firm sizes, financial deepening significantly explains the former but not so much the latter. Some key policy implications are derived. Credit Markets, Financial Dependence, Informality, Brazil Number 4642 2009-12 E26 G21 O4 O16 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-118&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-118.pdf application/pdf Luis Catao Carmen Pages Maria Fernanda Rosales

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There are few reliable estimates of the effects of violence on economic outcomes. This study exploits the manifold increase in homicides in 2008-2011 in Mexico resulting from its war on organized drug traffickers to estimate the effect of drug- related homicides on housing prices. Using an unusually rich dataset that provides national coverage on housing prices and homicides and exploits within- municipality variation, the study finds that the burden of violence affects only the poor. An increase in homicides equivalent to one standard deviation leads to a 3 percent decrease in low-income housing prices. Moreover, the effect on housing prices of long-term increases in crime is 40 percent larger. Number IDB-WP-471 2014-01 I3 K4 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38351892 application/pdf Nicolas Ajzenman Sebastian Galiani Enrique Seira

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Banking authorities must resolve or otherwise deal with existing banks that are weak or insolvent without imposing costs on consumers or taxpayers. Two aspects of this concern should be delineated. First, how can banking regulations be structured so that the future exit of weak and insolvent banks would be relatively costless? Next, how can the authorities resolve existing weak and insolvent banks without imposing costs on depositors or taxpayers? Number 4098 1997-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-361&pub_file_name=pubWP-361.pdf application/pdf George J. Benston

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los conjuntos de datos que se emplean para las evaluaciones en países en desarrollo no se prestan para cuantificar los efectos de los programas de capacitación sobre la dinámica de nuevo empleo de quienes reciben la capacitación. Una excepción es el conjunto de datos recopilados para una evaluación realizada en 1994 de participantes en un programa de capacitación dirigido a desempleados en México. Además de contar con un grupo de control de individuos que cumplen con los requisitos y que no participaron en el programa, este conjunto de datos es el único con datos longitudinales que cubren no sólo la duración de los episodios de desempleo después de que el individuo encuestado recibió la capacitación, sino además la duración de sus lapsos de empleo. Se emplean estos datos para estimar las semanas adicionales que trabajan los individuos gracias a la capacitación, en comparación con el caso en que no hay capacitación. Basándonos en funciones de riesgo, calculamos los efectos de un programa tanto sobre el tiempo que se pasa buscando empleo como sobre la duración del empleo. Demostramos que no poder distinguir entre hallar un empleo sostenido y hallar un empleo puede llevar a conclusiones engañosas sobre la eficacia de los programas. También ilustramos la necesidad de corregir la heterogeneidad no observada entre individuos en funciones de riesgo, para evitar implicaciones engañosas en una evaluación. Number 3225 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-522&pub_file_name=pubR-522.pdf application/pdf Angel Calderon Madrid

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento examina los hallazgos de Brasil en la exportación de aviones, teléfonos celulares y carne de cerdo. Todos los casos confirman la importancia que tienen el aumento de la eficacia y los costos irrecuperables en la expansión de las exportaciones y llevan a las siguientes conclusiones: la política económica y la ventaja comparativa desempeñaron un papel importante en la aparición de las nuevas actividades de exportación; las economías de escala fueron un factor determinante y crucial de la competitividad; y una marca de fábrica muy conocida ayudó a superar asimetrías de información y a facilitar el ingreso del producto en los mercados de exportación. Los exportadores se concentraron en el diseño, comercialización, investigación y desarrollo y ensamblaje de productos, haciendo de la coordinación con los proveedores un factor importante en sus estrategias. Las políticas públicas tuvieron además una fuerte influencia, en ocasiones involuntaria. Mientras que los gobiernos pueden fomentar los descubrimientos, especialmente ante las fallas del mercado, las políticas no pueden por sí solas generar el éxito de un exportador. Number 3257 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-551&pub_file_name=pubR-551.pdf application/pdf Armando Castelar Pinneiro Regis Bonelli

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper models the impact on economic growth of HIV/AIDS when the epidemic is in a mature phase, in contrast with previous studies focused on periods of expansion, as in African countries. Simulations for Honduras, the epicenter of the epidemic in Central America, show that AIDS is not likely to threaten economic growth through either labor or capital accumulation channels; impacts are estimated between 0. 007 and 0. 27 percent points of GDP growth annually for the period 2001-10. Likewise, increasing spending on prevention, public treatment subsidies and treatment access will not jeopardize economic growth prospects. Critical factors that slash economic growth in Africa (such as human capital reductions and shifts in relative skills) are not strong in Honduras. Number 4567 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-630&pub_file_name=pubWP-630.pdf application/pdf José Cuesta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este estudio analizamos el caso boliviano de reformas institucionales durante el periodo 1993-1997. Centramos la atención sobre tres reformas en particular: la Reforma de Participación Popular, la Reforma Educativa y la Reforma del Sistema de Pensiones. Cada una ejemplifica características singulares de cambio institucional tanto por el proceso como por los resultados de la adopción. La Participación Popular constituye uno de los intentos más ambiciosos de descentralización de los últimos años, que ha desembocado en importantes cambios políticos, fiscales y administrativos. A través de la reforma se crearon más de doscientos nuevos municipios y se transfirió cerca del 40% de las competencias de inversión pública al nivel local. Una de las características más sobresalientes de la reforma es la promoción de la participación ciudadana a través de organizaciones comunitarias campesinas, indígenas y urbanas. La Reforma Educativa, por su parte, constituye el intento más serio de reforma de la educación en este siglo y abarca los ámbitos tanto curriculares como pedagógicos y administrativos. Una de las características singulares de la reforma educativa es la promoción de modalidades interculturales y participativas de educación primaria. En la práctica, la adopción de la reforma ha mostrado un entramado de dificultades, tanto durante los procesos de formulacion técnica como de negociación politica e implementación. Sugiere las dificultades esencialmente políticas de la adopción de reformas institucionales en el sector social. Finalmente, la Reforma del Sistema de Pensiones, ejemplifica modalidades imaginativas de reforma fiscal acopladas al sector social. La reforma busca el reemplazo del sistema de reparto simple (PAYGO) por uno de capitalización individual y colectiva. El nuevo sistema procura mejorar el nivel de rentas de jubilación y lograr un uso más sostenible y equitativo de los recursos acumulados en los fondos de pensiones, traspasando la administración de éstos al sector privado. La vinculación de la Reforma de Pensiones a la de Capitalización introduce efectos adicionales a considerar en el análisis. Number 3048 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-350&pub_file_name=pubR-350.pdf application/pdf George Gray-Molina Ernesto Perez de Rada Ernesto Yáñez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the determinants and consequences of bailing out states, in particular, those observed in Mexico. This work suggests that the explicit generalized bailout carried out by the federal government in Mexico in 1995 created a moral hazard problem. Another result of the analysis is that the existing institutional-legal framework is not adequate, since it provides incentives for states to borrow and for banks to lend without evaluating the risk of the project. Likewise, the importance of the state is a major determinant in providing bailout transfers. Also, the more fiscal need a state government has when the state government is incapable of adjusting its expenditure, the more likely the state to get an extraordinary transfer during the period of study. On the other hand, political variables are not an important determinant of a bailout, except, perhaps, when there are state elections. It is also shown that excessive indebtedness of local states may have equity implications as well: bailouts tend to be highly regressive, as the poorer—and less indebted—states receive much less in extraordinary resources. Number 3143 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-447&pub_file_name=pubR-447.pdf application/pdf Fausto Hernández Trillo Alberto Díaz Cayeros Rafael Gamboa González

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper tests the efficiency of different structures of bank ownership in terms of its ability to target manufacturing sectors in need of credit. We find that state- owned banks do not play a significant role in the development of industries that rely more on external finance and/or that have less tangible assets to pledge as collateral. Number 4325 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-483&pub_file_name=pubWP-483.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este mundo postmoderno de gran movilidad de los capitales, los países están siendo disciplinados por el anónimo mercado de capitales. Una perspectiva de la situación, quizá la imperante entre los economistas, es que Wall Street saca de quicio porque el programa económico en uso es insostenible y es probable que se produzcan crisis. Una perspectiva polar es que los países están a merced del mercado de capitales. En este trabajo se procura acercar estas dos perspectivas, haciendo énfasis especial en las crisis de la balanza de pagos. Number 4009 1995-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-306&pub_file_name=pubWP-306.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se emplean datos de panel de Venezuela recabados recientemente correspondientes al período de 1994 a 2002 para analizar tres cuestiones básicas: la primera tiene que ver con la influencia de las características individuales y la experiencia previa en el mercado laboral en la elección de métodos de búsqueda distintos. La segunda se refiere a la eficacia de diversos métodos de búsqueda para salir del desempleo y se controlan las características individuales y de los empleos anteriores. Por último, la tercera cuestión se relaciona con la situación laboral previa, mediante el análisis de la importancia relativa del método de búsqueda y la situación laboral anterior, para determinar la probabilidad de conseguir empleo o quedar fuera de la fuerza laboral. Concluimos que la situación laboral anterior es un factor principal que determina si se pasa a una situación de empleo y que el uso de agencias de empleo hace aumentar la probabilidad de ese paso en cada situación laboral. Number 4384 2004-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-519&pub_file_name=pubWP-519.pdf application/pdf Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org Cristobal Ruiz-Tagle

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes mortgage loan demand in Argentina using a new survey administered in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. It is found that recurring macro volatility and violation of financial property rights have increased demand for real estate as an investment, which in turn raises house prices and makes it more difficult for consumer households to meet minimum income requirements for obtaining a mortgage. Affordability thus seems to offer a better explanation than standard supply side constraints for the small size of the mortgage market in Argentina. Overall, the findings suggest that the shallow mortgage market has not posed a major impediment to home ownership rate in Argentina and that the small (and shrinking) mortgage market has more to do with lack of demand than credit supply constraints. Number 4751 2011-11 G21 R21 R31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36535858 application/pdf Sebastián Auguste Ricardo N. Bebczuk Ramiro Moya

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40682019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Intergovernmental transfers from the central level are an important source of revenue for most subnational governments in developing countries. This importance is likely to grow even further considering ongoing decentralization initiatives in Latin America and elsewhere. This paper investigates whether the transfer of mechanisms in place in Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil satisfy a set of basic propositions: (a) equity principle: poorer jurisdictions are not treated less favorably than better off ones; (b) incentive principle: subnational tax effort is encouraged; and (c) political nondiscrimination principle: electoral, partisan or other political constellations play no role in determining the distribution of transfers. Strikingly, politics do seem to matter. This paper concludes that the political and budgetary institution reform must go hand in hand if a rational system of fiscal federalism is to evolve. Number 4068 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-345&pub_file_name=pubWP-345.pdf application/pdf Moritz Kraemer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines how the adoption of the Australian ballot (AB), and ipso facto, the transition from the nominal to effective secret vote, shaped the nature of party politics in Brazil. Engaging the literature on political clientelism, the impact of the AB on three outcomes is studied: 1) the ideological leanings of voters at the ballot box; 2) the degree of electoral control enjoyed by local vote brokers; and 3) the capacity of citizens to effectively participate in the electoral process. In order to get leverage on these issues, the paper utilizes an original dataset -painstakingly assembled from regional electoral archives- which contains municipal-level vote returns for federal deputy and senate contests during the period before and after the AB's introduction in Brazil (1958-1962). The dataset exploits the fact that the AB was introduced at different times in different states and for different offices in the country, thereby creating an unprecedented opportunity to assess the impact of this institution. Using a triple difference-in-difference procedure, the study finds that the AB: 1) shifted the ideological balance of power from Right to Left; 2) did not greatly weaken the hand of vote brokers; and 3) greatly increased the proportion of wasted votes cast in elections. Number IDB-WP-428 2013-09 D72 K N4 N46 O17 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38054903 application/pdf Daniel Gingerich

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint We present four case studies of bailouts of subnational governments in Australia, Germany, Italy and Sweden. The case studies show that bailouts can occur in a diverse set of institutions shaping the relations between central and subnational governments. Surpisingly, there is little evidence in favor of the `too big to fail` argument explaining bailouts. In contrast, elements of political favoritism play some role in most cases. The cases also indicate the importance of properly designing principal-agent relationships in the decentralization of public finances. Constitutional mandates for uniform provision of public services and attempts by the central government to dominate subnational governments in matters of fiscal policy seem to be conducive to bailouts. Number 3100 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-399&pub_file_name=pubR-399.pdf application/pdf Jürgen Von Hagen Massimo Bordignon Bhajan S. Grewal Per Peterson Helmut Seitz Matz Dahlberg

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La República Dominicana mostró una buena trayectoria de crecimiento en las dos últimas décadas pero enfrenta desafíos muy relevantes en el presente. El objetivo central del trabajo es analizar estos desafíos. Con el objeto de evaluar las restricciones que podrían amenazar el crecimiento sostenido, se utiliza la metodología de “diagnóstico de crecimiento” propuesta por Hausmann, Rodrik y Velasco (2005), complementada con la noción de “síndrome de crecimiento” (Dixit, 2005) a los efectos de caracterizar qué tipo de enfermedad de crecimiento afecta al país tomando en cuenta los síntomas observados. La conclusión central es que existe un “Síndrome de Competitividad Declinante”. Una segunda conclusión importante es que para superarlo es vital crear condiciones para el descubrimiento de nuevas actividades en el sector transable de la economía. Como parte del diagnóstico se evalúan actividades con potencial competitivo. Se subrayan, también, los problemas en el sector eléctrico y la necesidad de asegurar la sustentabilidad fiscal. Esto último se requiere tanto por razones de estabilidad macroeconómica como para robustecer la capacidad operativa y financiera que necesita el Estado para fomentar el descubrimiento de nuevas actividades de alta productividad y el desarrollo de eslabonamientos con las actividades de alta productividad existentes. Number 2009 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-118&pub_file_name=pubCSI-118_esp.pdf application/pdf Jose Maria Fanelli Rolando Guzmán

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes gender earnings gaps in Barbados and Jamaica, using a matching comparisons approach. In both countries, as in most of the Caribbean region, females’ educational achievement is higher than that of males. Nonetheless, males’ earnings surpass those of their female peers. Depending on the set of control characteristics, males’ earnings surpass those of females by between 14 and 27 percent of average females’ wages in Barbados, and between 8 and 17 percent of average females’ wages in Jamaica. In the former, the highest earnings gaps are found among low-income workers. Results from both countries confirm a finding that has been recurrent with this matching approach: the complete elimination of gender occupational segregation in labor markets would increase rather than reduce gender earnings gaps. The evidence is mixed regarding segregation by economic sectors. Occupational experience, in the case of Barbados, and job tenure, in the case of Jamaica, help to explain existing gender earnings gaps. Gender, Ethnicity, Wage gaps, the Caribbean, Barbados, Jamaica, Matching Number 4683 2010-08 C14 D31 J16 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-210&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-210.pdf application/pdf Annelle Bellony Alejandro Hoyos Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint After the 2007-2009 global financial crisis and previous financial crises in Latin America, the liquidity-risk exposure of banking systems is considered one of the most important vulnerabilities. At the same time, that exposure may also be the most mysterious of those vulnerabilities, as the dimensions of this risk are not yet well understood and good metrics have not been available. This goal of this paper is to provide a thorough review of previous contributions and to develop a set of measures of systemic liquidity-risk exposure of banking systems, with a focus on Latin American and Caribbean economies. Number 4811 2012-11 G01 G21 G32 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37275635 application/pdf Pablo Federico

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Environmental taxes have been discussed as one of the main mechanisms to deal with environmental problems. Nonetheless, instruments of this type have rarely been implemented, and the adoption of new or higher environmental taxes has faced resistance in some countries. The purpose of this work is to identify one possible political answer to why adoption of environmental taxes varies. One explanation is that legislatures’ ideological position affects the degree of usage of taxes generally and environmental taxes in particular. For example, right-wing parties tend to be less associated with environmental concerns and more associated with lower government intervention. This paper presents evidence that reflects this relationship, showing the positive association of more left-wing legislatures with higher levels of environmental taxation. A panel of data for 37 developed and developing countries over 16 years is used considering the percentage of total revenue from environmentally related taxes, the ratio of this revenue to total energy use and tax levels in industry and household sectors. The results show that most of these impacts involve environmentally related taxes in the industry sector. Proportional representation electoral systems and high seat concentration by few parties appear to be necessary conditions for the negative relation of right-wing ideology with environmental taxes. Number IDB-WP-443 2013-09 H23 P16 Q58 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38084047 application/pdf Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org Mauricio Vela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se desarrolla y aplica un enfoque nuevo al cálculo de los efectos de las reformas económicas sobre las diferencias salarias, empleándose un nuevo conjunto de datos de alta calidad sobre las diferencias salariales por nivel de escolaridad en 18 países latinoamericanos durante el período 1980-1998. Los resultados indican que la reforma en general ha tenido un efecto efímero de fomento de la desigualdad de ampliar las diferencias salariales, aunque este efecto tiende a disiparse con el tiempo. Este efecto de aumento de la desigualdad se debe al considerable efecto de la reforma del mercado financiero interno, la apertura de la cuenta de capital y la reforma tributaria. Por otro lado, la privatización ha contribuido a estrechar las diferencias de salario, y la apertura del comercio internacional no ha tenido efecto alguno en las diferencias salariales. El avance tecnológico, más que los flujos del comercio internacional, parece ser un canal a través del cual las reformas inciden en la desigualdad. También se exploran los efectos de las reformas en los niveles de salario y los resultados preliminares sugieren que las mismas han tenido repercusiones positivas en el salario real promedio, pero un efecto negativo sobre el salario de trabajadores menos preparados. Number 4236 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-435&pub_file_name=pubWP-435.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Nancy Birdsall Jere R. Behrman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo incursiona en el análisis de los activos y recursos que disponen los pobres. Se revisa y actualiza la magnitud, evolución y perfil de las familias pobres con énfasis en las características que den elementos sobre la dotación y utilización rentable de los activos. Con una reducción modesta de la pobreza, los resultados sugieren que las familias con una mejor dotación, utilización o rentabilidad de sus activos son las que tienen mayores probabilidades de superar los umbrales de la pobreza. Number 3058 1999-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-360&pub_file_name=pubR-360.pdf application/pdf Nancy Montiel Juan Diego Trejos

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study presents the case of Venezuela. The report describes the main actors (formal and informal) involved in the budget-making process, and presents evidence regarding the main political and economic determinants of fiscal performance. It also discusses whether different political and institutional arrangements governing the budget process affect incentives for the composition of the budget. Number 2002 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-103&pub_file_name=pubCSI-103.pdf application/pdf Abelardo Daza José Manuel Puente Alesia Rodríguez Germán Rios

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-2372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The understanding of the economic effect of formal institutional rules has progressed substantially in recent decades. These formal analyses have tended to take for granted that institutional arenas such as Congress are the places where decision-making takes place. That is a good approximation in some cases (such as many developed countries today) but not in others. If countries differ in how institutionalized their policymaking is, it is possible that the impact of formal political rules on policy outcomes might depend on that. This paper explores that hypothesis and finds that some important claims regarding the impact of constitutions on policy outcomes do not hold for countries in which institutionalization is low. The findings suggest the need to develop a broader class of policymaking models in which the degree to which decision-making follows 'the rules' is also endogenized. Number IDB-WP-237 2013-07 D72 D73 D78 H20 H60 H62 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37936003 application/pdf German Caruso Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the economic effects of employment protection legislation in a sample of developed and developing countries. Implementing a difference-in-differences test lessens the potentially severe endogeneity and omitted variable problems associated with cross-country regressions. This test is based on the hypothesis that employment protection regulations are more binding in sectors of activity exposed to higher volatility in demand or supply shocks. The analysis indicates that more stringent legislation slows down job turnover by a significant amount, and that this effect is more pronounced in sectors that are intrinsically more volatile. The paper also finds that employment and value added decline in the most affected sectors, and employment and output effects are driven by a decline in the net entry of firms. In contrast, average employment per plant is not significantly affected. Number 4496 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-592&pub_file_name=pubWP-592.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Financial turmoil is becoming a fact of life in Latin America. The 1990s have been characterized by enormous volatility in the magnitude and cost of capital flows. The correlation of capital swings across disparate countries suggests that the quality of emerging market policies in addition to global factors have been the main actors in this drama. Therefore, the blame for financial turmoil has moved away from inappropriate domestic policies. Instead, the paradigm has shifted to one of determining which policies ¾ domestic or international¾ are most effective in taming the destabilizing effects of inherently volatile capital flows. Number 4170 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-400&pub_file_name=pubWP-400.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Michael Gavin Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The aim of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the link between foreign aid and income inequality for the period 1973-2002. Since simple cross-country regressions cannot be taken as `true` time series findings, we also focus on dynamic panel data techniques, which allow accounting for potential simultaneity and heterogeneity problems. We do not find very robust evidence that foreign aid is conducive to the improvement of the distribution of income, even when the quality of institutions is taken into account. This finding is consistent with recent empirical research on aid and growth that shows that such a link is weak at best. Number 4437 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-547&pub_file_name=pubWP-547.pdf application/pdf Ma. Cecilia Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The major objective of this paper is to investigate institutional arrangements as a determinant of loan repayment in the Chilean financial market. A second aim is to analyze the effects of these arrangements on borrowers’ behavior. Although La Porta et al. (1997, 1998) classify Chile as a French Civil Law country, the law and private arrangements have evolved consistently with the capital market development to protect the rights of the creditors. This is consistent with relatively low rates of bad loans, ranking from 1. 1 to 2. 0 percent in 1993-1997. We examine different variables which may be related to loan repayment: (a) limitations on the access to credit, (b) macroeconomic stability, (c) collection technology, (d) bankruptcy code, (e) information sharing, (f) the judicial system, (g) prescreening techniques and (h) major changes in financial market regulation. Based on the discussion presented in the paper plus regression analyses, we conclude that a satisfactory performance of the Chilean credit market, in terms of loan repayments and credit market development, hinges on a good information sharing system, an advanced collection technology, a good macroeconomic performance, credit market development and major changes in financial market regulation. Number 3073 1999-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-374&pub_file_name=pubR-374.pdf application/pdf J. Rodrigo Fuentes Carlos Maqueira

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys Mexico`s economic weaknesses and provides related policy recommendations. Current problems include weak international financial links and external conditions, a recurrent credit crunch and financial underdevelopment problem, with particularly fragile banks, a weak fiscal situation, due to extreme vulnerability to internal and external shocks, and a latent monetary policy credibility problem. The paper`s policy recommendations include improving external financial links, reducing direct exposure to external shocks, accelerating domestic financial deepening and strengthening existing arrangements, reducing public accounts exposure to internal and external shocks, and stabilizing very high and very low frequency movements in the nominal exchange rate. Number 4209 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-420&pub_file_name=pubWP-420.pdf application/pdf Ricardo J. Caballero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) This document seeks to develop options for restructuring health systems in the region. In particular it examines the deficiencies of the current models and offers an alternative. Our approach is systematic because it analyses each element in a coherent framework, and systemic, in the sense that it considers the entire health system, emphasizing the relations between the main components. Number 4082 1997-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-353&pub_file_name=pubWP-353.pdf application/pdf Juan Luis Londoño Julio Frenk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de los acuerdos de integración regional en el destino de la inversión extranjera directa, empleándose para ello datos del volumen de inversión extranjera bilateral directa tomados de las Estadísticas sobre inversión internacional directa de la OCDE. El conjunto de datos cubre la inversión extranjera directa de 20 países de origen, todos ellos integrantes de la OCDE, a 60 países receptores, desde 1982 hasta 1999. Se empleó el análisis de datos de panel con efectos fijos por par de países y se halló que la afiliación corriente a un acuerdo de integración regional con un país de origen hace aumentar la inversión extranjera directa proveniente de esa fuente en 27%, aproximadamente. Es más probable que los países de mayor apertura y cuyas proporciones de factores difieren más de las del país de origen se beneficien más, ya que tienen a recibir inversión extranjera directa de tipo vertical, el cual responde más favorablemente a la integración. También hallamos que el aumento del tamaño del mercado vinculado con las iniciativas de integración regional contribuye a atraer más inversión extranjera directa al acuerdo de integración regional como un todo. Sin embargo, es probable que sólo los países del acuerdo de integración que ofrezcan un entorno en general más atrayente para la IED obtengan beneficios de esta dinámica. Por último, también hallamos pruebas que sugieren un pequeño efecto de desviación de la inversión extranjera directa. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la integración regional contribuye, en promedio, a la captación de inversión extranjera directa, pero que es poco probable que los beneficios se distribuyan parejamente. Number 4344 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-492&pub_file_name=pubWP-492.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Ernesto H. Stein Christian Daude

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This work analyzes housing finance in Trinidad and Tobago during the last 20 years. The period covered is influenced by an economic bonanza led by the energy sector. Housing prices in this period skyrocketed, but the demand for mortgage loans was low. The results suggest that this is explained by affordability problems in the dynamics of the new post-shock equilibrium, as housing prices increased more rapidly than wages. Public housing finance also played a role, but in recent times it has been more prudently managed than during the previous boom of the 1970s. Number 4745 2011-12 N96 R2 R28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36577576 application/pdf Sebastián Auguste Ramiro Moya Sandra Sookram

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analiza la separación de la propiedad y el control de 108 empresas inscritas en bolsa en Colombia entre 1996 y 2002, y se descubre que los derechos de voto son mayores que los derechos referentes al flujo de caja debido a la propiedad indirecta entre empresas. También se analiza la relación de varias medidas de propiedad y control y las proporciones de separación con el valor y el desempeño de una empresa para la misma muestra de compañías que cotizaron sus acciones en bolsa entre 1998 y 2002. Se descubre que los tenedores de grandes bloques de acciones ejercen una influencia positiva en la valoración y el desempeño de una empresa. El trabajo además da cuenta de resultados de una encuesta efectuada en 2004 que sugiere que las empresas colombianas han mostrado cierta lentitud en el mejoramiento de sus prácticas de buena gestión empresarial. Number 4471 2007-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-568&pub_file_name=pubWP-568.pdf application/pdf Carlos Pombo Luis H. Gutiérrez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se pasa revista a las normas que rigen la contratación y el despido de trabajadores, así como el trabajo en tiempo extra, los aportes al régimen de seguridad social, el salario mínimo y la negociación de contratos colectivos en la región, además de sus repercusiones en los resultados del mercado laboral. Number 4119 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-373&pub_file_name=pubWP-373.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper tests whether Rodrik`s (1999) results that institutions for conflict management are associated with the ability to react to economic shocks are robust to different ways of defining the quality of such institutions. We measure the quality of conflict management institutions with two different indices. The first is an index of political constraints on the ability of the executive to impose its will. These constraints limit the ability of the government to arbitrarily change the rules of the game and therefore may reduce redistributive struggles. The second index measures the degree of political particularism. We define political particularism as the policymakers` ability to further their career by catering to narrow interests rather than broader national platforms. The indices used in this paper solve the endogeneity and subjectivity biases that affect Rodrik`s measure of institutional quality. We find strong support for the idea that high levels of political constraints and intermediate levels of political particularism are associated with a quick recovery from economic shocks. Number 4207 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-419&pub_file_name=pubWP-419.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza Alejandro Gaviria Ernesto H. Stein Jessica Seddon Wallack

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the impact of the recent wave of trade liberalization and economic reform on employment. Four alternative measures of openness and four measures of the real exchange rate are used to measure the impact of trade reforms on manufacturing and economy-wide employment. Across a wide range of specifications, trade reforms have had a negative, albeit small, effect on employment growth. This effect has been reinforced by real exchange rate appreciation. Number 4108 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-366&pub_file_name=pubWP-366.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio realiza un análisis estadístico de la enseñanza de la economía a nivel de pre-grado en Bolivia y Chile, respondiendo una serie de interrogantes relativas a la estructura de la carrera, los métodos de enseñanza, la percepción de los alumnos con respecto a la universidad, a los economistas, a las perspectivas laborales, la intención de hacer post-grados y otros temas que hacen a la enseñanza de economía tanto en universidades públicas, como en privadas. Se presenta un análisis exhaustivo de una serie de tópicos que son comparados entre universidades de cada país, así como entre países, resaltando las semejanzas y diferencias. Enseñanza de Economía, Inserción Laboral Number 4632 2009-07 A22 A23 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-673&pub_file_name=pubWP-673_esp.pdf application/pdf Carlos Gustavo Machado Lourdes Espinoza Katia Makhlouf

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La experiencia venezolana en los años 80 es un terreno especialmente fértil para el análisis de sacudidas negativas. Se produjeron dos sacudidas de gran magnitud en regímenes de control muy distintos, lo que puso de manifiesto el papel que desempeña la estructura institucional en la determinación de la respuesta. Además, la experiencia puede arrojar una luz distinta sobre la conveniencia de regímenes cambiarios alternativos de países sujetos a sacudidas comerciales de gran magnitud y frecuentes. Además, el análisis se puede simplificar por dos motivos. En primer lugar, las sacudidas petroleras tienen efectos directos en el sector público únicamente, lo que implica que lo que afecta a los hogares y las empresas es la reacción de políticas a las sacudidas. En segundo lugar, la respuesta de la oferta de la industria petrolera no es de interés macroeconómico. Number 4011 1995-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-307&pub_file_name=pubWP-307.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint While Mexico has potential to grow rapidly, its economic growth has remained low for the past three decades. There is no consensus on the country’s development path or on how to achieve specific goals. Since the policy debate remains ideological and lacks pragmatism, productive development policies (PDPs) are often uncoordinated, redundant or even incongruent with each other. It is therefore important to understand the process whereby PDPs are designed and the institutional setting in which they are are implemented. This paper consequently examines whether PDPs respond to market failures and/or government failures. When PDPs are not designed to address specific market failures they can produce unwanted results or prove completely ineffective. When PDPs do address government failures, it is important to determine the reasons why the failure cannot be corrected in the first place and whether PDPs will be effective at addressing the problem in a second-best manner. Industrial Policy, Institutions, Policymaking, Mexico Number 4693 2010-11 O25 O43 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-168&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-168.pdf application/pdf Veronica Baz Maria Cristina Capelo Rodrigo Centeno Ricardo Estrada

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se estudia la propuesta de que los ingresos de capitales tienden a asumir la forma de inversión extranjera directa (IED), es decir, que la parte de la IED del total de pasivos tiende a ser mayor en países que son más seguros, más promisorios y con mejores instituciones y políticas. Se halla que este punto de vista es patentemente errado, ya que tergiversa totalmente el registro histórico. Luego se emplean teorías alternativas para explicar los hechos. Se comienza por estudiar los factores determinantes del tamaño y la composición de los flujos de capitales privados entre los países. Se descubre que aunque los flujos de capitales tienden a dirigirse a países que son más seguros y que tienen mejores instituciones y mercados financieros, la parte de la IED del total de flujos no constituye una señal de buena salud. Por el contrario, los países que son más riesgosos, menos desarrollados financieramente y tienen instituciones más débiles, tienden a atraer menos capital pero más de él en la forma de IED. Por ende, no se justifica interpretar un aumento de la participación de la IED como una señal de buena salud. Esto resulta aún más cierto, dado que se ha producido el reciente aumento de la IED, mientras que los flujos total de capital privado han decaído. Number 4204 2000-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-417&pub_file_name=pubWP-417.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento investiga hasta que punto las personas confían, reciprocan, cooperan y comparten riesgos. El estudio se llevó a cabo en seis ciudades de América Latina aplicando una serie de experimentos de campo que incluían el juego de confianza, el mecanismo de contribuciones voluntarias y tres juegos de riesgo compartido. Los resultados sugieren que: (i) en promedio, la propensión de los latinoamericanos a confiar y a cooperar es notablemente similar a la de otras regiones del mundo; (ii) la expectativa sobre el comportamiento de los demás es el principal motivador de confianza, reciprocidad y cooperación, y (iii) los comportamientos que incluyen socialización, confianza y cooperación están íntimamente vinculados. Number 4578 2008-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-635&pub_file_name=pubWP-635.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Juan Camilo Cardenas

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preprint In the nearly ten years since Peru privatized major State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), the overall impact of the process is not yet clear. This paper analyzes the impact of privatization through a detailed statistical and econometric analysis of first difference (the difference between pre- and post-privatization performance), and second difference (change in performance of privatized firms relative to the change in performance of SOEs) of several indicators on profitability, operating efficiency, employment, leverage and convergence. The results, which showed that privately owned firms are more efficient and more profitable than otherwise comparable state owned firms, were consistent with previous literature. In the case of the most competitive sector, the financial system, the newly privatized banks converged towards the leading private banks over time. While the impact of privatization on employment is negative in the short-run, there are more positive impacts in the long term, especially since SOEs traditionally hire employees for political rather than technical reasons. This paper demonstrates that, as the result of privatization, there is a significant increase in indirect employment through services and significant growth of total employment—both direct and indirect. Number 3173 2003-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-481&pub_file_name=pubR-481.pdf application/pdf Máximo Torero

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preprint El propósito del estudio es medir la asociación entre la salud y los salarios en el Perú, y con ello poder explorar el impacto de la salud sobre la productividad de las personas. Del mismo modo, se intenta evaluar cuáles son las consecuencias de la omisión de la variable salud en los estimados de otras variables incluidas en la ecuación de salarios. Por último, se intenta analizar cuál es el impacto de la disponibilidad de los servicios públicos de salud sobre la productividad; todo ello sobre la base de la presencia de una relación de simultaneidad entre el salario y el estado de la salud reportada por las personas. Number 3061 1999-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-363&pub_file_name=pubR-363.pdf application/pdf Rafael Cortez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En los últimos años, los sectores bancarios latinoamericanos han experimentado un acelerado proceso de concentración y penetración foránea, lo cual ha suscitado diversos puntos de vista en cuanto a sus implicaciones para la conducta competitiva de los bancos y para la estabilidad financiera del sistema como un todo. Empleamos una base de datos de balances generales bancarios de ocho países latinoamericanos con abundante información para analizar la evolución de los indicadores de la concentración y la penetración foránea, así como sus efectos sobre la competencia y el riesgo. Hallamos que, aunque la concentración no hizo disminuir la competencia en la actividad bancaria, puede que la penetración foránea sí haya conducido a una disminución de la competitividad del sector bancario. Además, hallamos que la fragilidad del sector bancario parece guardar una relación positiva con la competencia y, por este canal, una relación negativa con la participación extranjera, pese al hecho de que se vincula a los bancos extranjeros que operan en la región con un mayor riesgo de insolvencia, debido a proporciones de endeudamiento más elevadas y rendimientos más inestables. Number 4354 2003-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-499&pub_file_name=pubWP-499.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) In the last decade the direction of macroeconomic policies made an extraordinary about-face in Latin America, but labor legislation is virtually unchanged. The central purpose of this work is to show the size of this lag and to indicate that most countries require far-reaching reforms to adapt their labor legislation to the new context of flexibility and competition. Number 4064 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-343&pub_file_name=pubWP-343.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

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preprint Although recent research has shed new light on the political determinants and economic consequences of tax lawmaking, existing analyses rely on coarse data measuring political aggregates. Consequently, little is known about the political processes determining how tax legislation is written or their effect on the nature of tax reforms. This paper therefore develops a methodology to examine how Congress edits the content of tax legislation by measuring the ways Deputies, Senators, Presidents, and Ministers propose and amend such legislation. The Legislative Substance Scale proposed here measures the distance between a bill’s original position and the actual outcome of the legislative process by comparing the differences in content according to coding of the main tax policy dimensions. The scale is used to build the first systematic database of tax lawmaking in Argentina, and to describe its general patterns of authorship, approval and substantive content across presidencies in the current democratic period. Number IDB-WP-433 2013-12 D78 H20 H77 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38311456 application/pdf Javier Alvaredo Alejandro Bonvecchi Ernesto Calvo Maximiliano Castillo Juan Carlos Gomez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30942019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Utilizing differences-in-differences estimates, this paper reviews the impact of reduced firing costs on the dynamism of the Colombian labor market. The effects include raising exit rates into and out of unemployment, increasing compliance with labor legislation by lowering the costs of formal production, and reducing unemployment from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. On the other hand, labor market reform appeared to explain in part increasing unemployment during the late 1990s. In general, greater flexibility in hiring and firing is likely to translate into increased hiring relative to firing during expansions, but increased firing relative to hiring during recessions. Number 3094 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-393&pub_file_name=pubR-393.pdf application/pdf Adriana Kugler

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La obra publicada recientemente sobre países latinoamericanos muestra que los gastos privados como porcentaje del gasto total en salud tienden a ser mayores mientras menor es el nivel de desarrollo económico del país. En este trabajo se toma en cuenta un modelo de elección discreta de diferenciación de productos, en el que la decisión del consumidor se basa en un intercambio entre precio y calidad. Los médicos participan en un régimen de doble empleo; trabajando como agentes en el sector público y maximizando sus ganancias en un sector privado fragmentado. Number 4155 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-391&pub_file_name=pubWP-391.pdf application/pdf Daniel Maceira

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Honduran farmers are at a disadvantage when dealing with intermediaries because they lack timely information about market prices. This paper first analyzes which information and communications technology (ICT) would be most suitable for sending price information to producers scattered throughout the country at a reasonable cost and in a sustainable way. Negotiations by two groups of farmers were compared: one to which market prices were not sent (control) and one to which prices were sent (treatment). A simple uninterrupted time series research design was used, followed by linear regression analysis and univariant analyses to determine the cases in which the treatment had an impact on farmers’ negotiations. Findings are reported, as well as recommendations and lessons learned. Number 4713 2011-03 D24 O33 Q12 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=35937100 application/pdf Allan Pineda Marco Aguero Sandra Espinoza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint As a result of the consolidation of democracy after the end of the military regime in the mid-1980s, Brazil has gone through a period of remarkable decentralization both in fiscal and political terms. The move towards decentralized management and control of public finances has been followed by a series of bailouts of state governments by the federal government. The lack of effective control on borrowing, coupled with reputational effects originating from these repeated bailout operations, reduced fiscal discipline and created an explosive accumulation of debts in Brazilian states during the last decade. The main purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of state debt bailouts in Brazil and their relationship with states’ fiscal discipline during the 1990s. After providing a brief overview of intergovernmental fiscal relationships in the Brazilian economy, the paper describes state debt developments from the mid-1980s on, with special emphasis on the 1989, 1993 and 1997 state debt bailouts. The paper subsequently discusses the determinants of state debt bailouts in Brazil along the lines of a conceptual framework that recognizes that the essence of the bailout question is the issue of moral hazard, then presents empirical evidence that the occurrence of bailouts is associated with lower fiscal discipline in Brazilian states during the 1990s. Number 3137 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-441&pub_file_name=pubR-441.pdf application/pdf Afonso S. Bevilaqua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a large cross-country survey of business firms to assess their influence on government policies. It is found that influence is associated with larger, government-owned firms that have a high degree of ownership concentration. In contrast, foreign ownership matters little. It is also found that the extent to which government policies and legislation are viewed as impeding firm growth decreases with political influence and, independently, with a country’s level of institutional quality. Number 4540 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-616&pub_file_name=pubWP-616.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the impact of ideology on tax revenues in Latin America, using a panel of 17 countries from 1990 to 2010. As a first approach, a fixed- effects model is used to identify the impact of ideology on taxation; left-leaning governments are associated with increases in total tax revenues and income tax revenues of 2. 1 and 1. 3 percent of GDP, respectively. There is no effect on revenues from VAT or social security taxes. To deal with endogeneity problems, an event study and a difference in difference methodology are used to track the behavior of revenues around the time of the shifts to the left. Tax revenues and income tax revenues increase by 1. 5 and 0. 8 percent of GDP when comparing revenues immediately before and after the shift in ideology. The pattern of tax revenues around ideological shifts suggests that the effects are causal. Number IDB-WP-407 2013-05 H20 P16 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37785003 application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein ernestos@iadb.org Lorena Caro

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza si los factores institucionales, en este caso los sistemas y procedimientos electorales, inciden en el desempeño fiscal de los países latinoamericanos según el tamaño del sector público, los déficit fiscales, el tamaño de la deuda oficial y el grado de propensión a los ciclos de la política fiscal. Los autores hallan que los sistemas electorales caracterizados por subdivisiones políticas de gran tamaño y una elevada fragmentación política tienen gobiernos y déficit más grandes, así como políticas fiscales más proclives a los ciclos. Por otro lado, los procedimientos presupuestarios transparentes y jerárquicos conducen a déficit y niveles de deuda más bajos. Number 4111 1998-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-367&pub_file_name=pubWP-367.pdf application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein Ernesto Talvi Alejandro Grisanti

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preprint After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the short-term interest rate as the main instrument. This paper examines the experience of the Colombian Central Bank over the last decade, a period of consolidation and innovation of its IT strategy. The paper studies the increasing number of instruments used by the CB, including systematic foreign exchange interventions, announcements, and, sporadically, macro-prudential policies, capital controls, and changes in reserve requirements, among others. The study also examines some political economy dimensions that help explain the behavior of the CB during this period. To guide the discussion, a small-scale open-economy policy model is estimated. Number IDB-WP-487 2014-02 E02 E32 E42 E43 E52 E58 E61 F31 F33 F42 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38657659 application/pdf Miguel Urrutia Franz Hamann Marc Hofstetter

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Utilizando una muestra de 110 países desarrollados y países en desarrollo para el período 1990-2004, este documento analiza las características de las interrupciones súbitas sistémicas (3S, por sus siglas en inglés) en flujos de capital y la relevancia de los efectos del balance general en la probabilidad de su materialización. Una pequeña oferta de bienes comerciables relativos a su absorción interna, un poder para cambios potenciales en el tipo de cambio real y grandes deudas expresadas en divisas hacia el sistema bancario nacional son presentados como factores determinantes de las probabilidades de 3S, produciendo un efecto de balance general con impactos no lineales en la probabilidad de 3S. Mientras que la integración financiera está hasta un punto relacionada a una mayor probabilidad de 3S, más allá de tal punto la integración financiera se asocia a una probabilidad más baja de 3S. Number 4582 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-637&pub_file_name=pubWP-637.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Luis Fernando Mejía

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents evidence on the relationship between economic shocks to relative male wages and changes in household consumption in Mexico during the 1990s, which is a period characterized by high volatility. In addition to performing this type of analysis for Mexico for the first time, the paper makes two main contributions. The first is the use of alternative data sources to construct instrumental variables for wages. The second is to examine differences across four consumption categories: non-durable goods, durable goods, education and health. Our results for non-durable goods consumption reject the hypothesis that Mexican households are able to insure idiosyncratic risk. For the comparisons across consumption categories, the conclusion is that households in Mexico tend to react to temporary shocks by contracting the consumption of goods that represent longer-run investment in human capital, which makes them more vulnerable in the future. Number 4265 2001-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-451&pub_file_name=pubWP-451.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Orazio P. Attanasio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Decentralization of provision of public services has been an important item in the agenda of developing countries. While some scholars and practitioners argue that decentralization is associated with improvements in provision due to higher accountability, others note its potential pitfalls. In particular, decentralization to local communities characterized by poverty, low levels of education, and inequality may lead to low accountability and higher susceptibility to political capture. This paper explores these dynamics empirically, taking advantage of the fact that in Brazilian municipalities primary education is provided by schools under municipal as well as under state management. The performance of these two types of school in the same municipalities is compared in terms of their levels of inputs and the efficiency of service delivery using non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA). The results suggest that there are indeed drawbacks to decentralization in municipalities where inequality is higher and education and political participation are lower. Number IDB-WP-397 2013-06 H41 H75 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37809480 application/pdf Fabiana Machado fabianam@iadb.org

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preprint This study uses a human capital framework to evaluate the impact on labor market productivity of investments in health and nutrition in Mexico. The research extends the existing literature by proposing age at menarche as an effective indicator for analyzing the impact on productivity in the labor market of health and nutritional investments during childhood and adolescence. As in the case of adult height and body mass index, indicators that have been widely used in the analysis of the health-productivity relationship, menarche is a variable that reflects the secular increase in the level of economic development of many countries in the region. Age at menarche has shown a steady decrease of approximately 3-4 months per decade in many countries over the past 150 years. This decrease is a reflection of a variety of socio-economic factors and in particular nutritional status as a child. Despite the parallels between menarche and adult height as indicators of cumulative health status, age at menarche has apparently not been previously incorporated into the analysis of the impact of health on economic development. The paper considers the correlates of age at menarche in the framework of a reduced form health production function. Particular emphasis is placed on the importance of policy-sensitive health variables as determinants of age at menarche, and hence long-run female health. Hourly wages are used to measure the impact on labor market productivity of investment in health and nutrition early in the life cycle. Age at menarche is presented as a proxy for certain aspects of the health and nutritional components of human capital. The integrated human capital framework that underlies the theoretical model is developed in Schultz (1997), and applied in such works as Schultz (1996), Schultz and Tansel (1997) and Strauss and Thomas (1997). Number 3053 1999-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-355&pub_file_name=pubR-355.pdf application/pdf Felicia Marie Knaul

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo que muestra que los mecanismos ineficaces de protección jurídica hacen aumentar de manera desproporcionada las restricciones financieras a los acreedores de menor capacidad financiera. Debido al equilibrio de los costos fijos de monitoreo, los bancos no hacen el seguimiento de empresas pequeñas, por lo que éstas terminan adoptando tecnologías riesgosas que conllevan una mayor probabilidad de insolvencia. Esto significa que las ineficiencias de los procedimientos de insolvencia acaban por tener efectos mayores sobre las empresas pequeñas que sobre las de mayor tamaño. En este trabajo empleamos una encuesta entre compañías de 62 países de todo el mundo (WBES), así como técnicas econométricas, para manejar componentes observados y no observados específicos de cada país, así como la naturaleza endógena parcial, para analizar el papel que desempeña la protección al acreedor en el acceso de las pequeñas y medianas empresas al crédito bancario. Se descubre que una mejor protección a los acreedores reduce la brecha de financiamiento entre las pequeñas y grandes empresas. Number 4400 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-527&pub_file_name=pubWP-527.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper summarizes randomized experiment to study the effects of an Internetbased intervention on type 2 diabetes patients in Montevideo, Uruguay. The intervention consisted of a specially designed website and an electronic social network where participants were able to navigate freely, download materials, and interact with other diabetics and with specialists. No significant impact was found on participants` knowledge, behavior, or health outcomes. It was also found that only a minority of patients logged on to the website, and most were only reached by email and mobile text (SMS). Participation in the website is correlated with patients` characteristics, such as gender, marital status, and education. Randomized trial, Diabetes, Public health, Uruguay Number 4703 2010-12 C93 I1 O31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-221&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-221.pdf application/pdf Ana Balsa Nestor Gandelman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) According to the results of public opinion polls conducted by Apoyo S. A. , until 1991 inflation, terrorism and unemployment were, in that order, the most serious problems that affected the Peruvian population. Towards the mid-1990s, after solving the inflation problem and significantly moderating terrorism, the same polls showed that unemployment and lack of jobs were perceived as the most serious problems that afflict the Peruvian population. This document compares the structural reforms in relation to unemployment in Peru. WP-385 Paying the mortgage: Hyperinflation, reform of the economy, employment and unemployment in the Argentina of the 1990s The causes of the "unemployment explosion" and of the scant creation of jobs in Argentina until 1995 and the future outlook are the two themes of this document, which presents an in-depth interpretation of the case of Argentina. Number 4148 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-388&pub_file_name=pubWP-388.pdf application/pdf Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper asks whether bonanzas (surges) in net capital inflows increase the probability of banking crises and whether this is necessarily through a lending boom mechanism. A fixed effects regression analysis indicates that a baseline bonanza, identified as a surge of one standard deviation from trend, increases the odds of a banking crisis by three times, even in the absence of a lending boom. Thus, a bonanza raises the likelihood of a crisis from an unconditional probability of 4. 4 percent to 12 percent. Larger windfalls of capital (two-s. d. bonanzas) increase the odds of a crisis by eight times. The joint occurrence of a bonanza and a lending boom raises these odds even more. Decomposing flows into FDI, portfolio-equity and debt indicates that bonanzas in all flows increase the probability of crises when the windfall takes place jointly with a lending boom. Thus, windfalls in all types of flows exacerbate the deleterious effects of credit. However, surges in portfolio-equity flows seem to have an independent effect, even in the absence of a lending boom. Furthermore, emerging economies exhibit greater odds of crises after a windfall of capital. Number 4775 2012-05 E44 E51 F21 F32 F34 G01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36880928 application/pdf Julian Caballero julianc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Ahora se reconoce en general que vivimos en una economía del conocimiento; de hecho, el conocimiento es el factor que impulsa el crecimiento de la productividad. La participación en la economía mundial de los sectores que hace uso intensivo del conocimiento en el valor agregado y el empleo ha venido aumentando desde hace ya varios años. Esta tendencia es especialmente pronunciada en los países desarrollados, donde ya para 1999 la proporción del PIB de las industrias basadas en el conocimiento había rebasado el 50%, mientras que en 1985 era de 45% (OCDE, 1999; OCDE, 2000a). Además, la innovación impulsada por el conocimiento se ha convertido en un factor decisivo de la competitividad, tanto entre países como entre empresas. Number 4284 2001-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-460&pub_file_name=pubWP-460.pdf application/pdf Alberto Melo

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preprint Jamaica seems to be a puzzling case for economic growth: despite the structural reforms implemented in the last three decades and adequate investment levels, real GDP per capita is roughly the same as in 1970. The disappointing performance of this economy suggests that productive development policies (PDPs), including first-generation reforms, have not been enough to create a better environment for productivity growth. This paper examines the PDPs in Jamaica and concludes that behind the paradox of high investment and low growth of this economy are the “public debt trap” and a highly distortive tax incentive structure to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and promote exports. Although industrial policy is moving towards a more modern conceptual design, the old schemes seem politically difficult to dismantle. Productivity, Industrial policy, Foreign direct Investment, Jamaica Number 4656 2010-03 L52 O25 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-128&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-128.pdf application/pdf Monica Panadeiros Warren Benfield

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El futuro de las reformas estructurales se encuentra en discusión en América Latina. Este documento tiene por objeto ofrecer una síntesis de los hechos y opiniones que están alimentando este debate. La primera sección muestra que aunque el proceso de reformas no se ha detenido, ha sido incompleto y muy heterogéneo, tanto entre países, como por áreas de reforma. Los mayores progresos se han dado en materia de reformas comerciales y financieras, mientras que los progresos en las áreas de reforma tributaria y privatizaciones han sido muy diversos entre unos países y otros, y en materia de legislación laboral se ha avanzado muy poco. La segunda sección analiza el estado de la opinión pública sobre las reformas. El desencanto con las reformas ha sido creciente, especialmente entre las clases medias, y está reflejando no tanto la situación económica de los países, ni el grado de avance las reformas, sino el hecho de que las privatizaciones se han combinado con problemas de corrupción en algunos países. La tercera sección revisa la discusión sobre los efectos de las reformas. Su impacto sobre el crecimiento parece haber sido positivo, aunque temporal, pero los efectos laborales y distributivos han diferido por áreas de reforma y según diversas circunstancias de los países. En particular, la efectividad de las reformas ha dependido crucialmente de la calidad de las instituciones públicas. La cuarta sección resume las principales propuestas para ampliar o reorientar la agenda de reformas de la región. Un grupo de propuestas contempla expandir el Consenso de Washington con políticas más activas que atiendan la necesidad de mayor estabilidad económica, más inclusión social y una mejor distribución del ingreso. Otro grupo propende por una visión más amplia de la agenda de desarrollo y enfatiza las interacciones entre la sociedad civil, el sector privado y el gobierno. Finalmente, una visión más radical propone un nuevo orden institucional nacional e internacional que limitaría el papel de los mercados y pondría freno a las tendencias de globalización Number 4304 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-471&pub_file_name=pubWP-471.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En Argentina, como en la mayoría de los países del mundo, el sector sanitario ha sido tradicionalmente manejado por empresas públicas. Sin embargo, la corriente privatizadora de los últimos 10 años ha alcanzado a este sector lo cual la obliga a compatibilizar las ventajas de la provisión privada y las demandas sociales que caracterizan a los servicios públicos. La literatura especializada identifica como factores determinantes de la obtención de dichas ventajas, al diseño de la estructura y nivel de precios que se le impone al operador privado, y a los mecanismos de ajuste de dichos precios. En este trabajo se analizan las dos primeras concesiones del servicio de agua potable y desagüe cloacal en Argentina. Estas primeras concesiones se encuentran en la provincia de Corrientes y en la ciudad de Buenos Aires y localidades lindantes pertenecientes al Conurbano Bonaerense. Estas concesiones comenzaron su labor en septiembre 1991 y en mayo de 1992, respectivamente. Ambas han sido seguidas por otras concesiones provinciales que aún se encuentran en el proceso de desarrollo. Number 3011 1997-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-312&pub_file_name=pubR-312.pdf application/pdf Daniel Artana Fernando Navajas Santiago Urbiztondo

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preprint Privatization is under attack. Criticisms run from corrupt deals to abuse of market power and social welfare losses. We evaluate the empirical record on privatization relying on recent comprehensive studies from Latin America. There are four main results. First, the increased profitability of privatized firms is not explained by sample selection biases. Second, in the quest to identify the sources of increased profitability after privatization, we find little evidence that validates concerns of generalized market power abuses, exploitation of workers and lack of fiscal benefits. Third, the manner in which privatization is carried out matters. Transparency and homogeneity in procedures, speed, and limited restructuring prior to privatization lead to better outcomes and less room for corruption and discretion. Finally, privatization’s success is enhanced by two complementary policies: re-regulation or deregulation of industries previously shielded from competitive forces; and an effective corporate governance framework that facilitates privatized firms’ access to capital at lower costs. Overall, the empirical record shows that privatization leads to increased profitability and productivity, firm restructuring, fiscal benefits, output growth and even quality improvements. Most cases of privatization failure can be linked to poor contract design, opaque processes with heavy state involvement, lack of re-regulation and a poor corporate governance framework. Number 3180 2003-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-486&pub_file_name=pubR-486.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Si bien las instituciones de salud de pre-pago no han sido tradicionalmente la modalidad predominante en América Latina, los casos de Uruguay y Argentina, con notables diferencias entre sí, se destacan porque ambos países las han tenido desde el siglo pasado. Dada la reciente atención que ha recibido este modelo de financiación, administración y provisión debido a las deficiencias de los sistemas de provisión estatales o de la seguridad social, resulta de particular interés estudiar y comparar la eficacia y eficiencia productiva de estas distintas formas de seguros de pago por anticipado, controlando según el marco regulatorio general pero variando las formas de derechos de propiedad y la estructura del mercado. El objetivo del presente estudio es comparar el desempeño y la eficiencia productiva en el Uruguay de los distintos tipos de seguros pre-pagos de salud que constituyen dos grandes subsistemas cuyos mercados son teóricamente muy distintos: el mercado de Montevideo y el subsistema compuesto por los mercados locales del interior del país. El estudio compara los desempeños y comportamientos de los dos subsistemas en algunos aspectos; de los distintos tipos de instituciones dentro de cada subsistema; y de las distintas formas en que está organizada la provisión de servicios dentro de un tipo de institución en particular. Number 3006 1997-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-307&pub_file_name=pubR-307.pdf application/pdf Gaston J. Labadie

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The gender of the household head has often been treated as an exogenous determinant of homeownership. This paper argues that several determinants of homeownership also affect household headship and that failing to explicitly account for this endogeneity leads to inconsistent results. Using individual level data for Chile, Honduras and Nicaragua, the paper shows that although on average women have lower probability of being homeowners, women who head households (single, separated or divorced) have a greater probability of attaining homeownership. Thus household level analysis should control for the endogeneity of household headship in order to properly address the gender effect on housing tenure. Estimating a bivariate probit model, the paper finds evidence that femaleheaded families have a lower probability of owning their home in Latin American countries. Without the endogeneity control this result was not present in eight countries. Number 3252 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-547&pub_file_name=pubR-547.pdf application/pdf Nestor Gandelman

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La salud infantil es un aspecto fundamental del programa de políticas públicas de los países en desarrollo. A lo largo de los años se han puesto en práctica numerosas políticas destinadas al mejoramiento de la salud infantil, con diversos grados de éxito. En Brasil, dichas políticas han llevado a una disminución considerable de los niveles de mortalidad infantil durante los últimos 30 años. Sin embargo, a pesar de esa mejora, las tasas de mortalidad siguen siendo elevadas con respecto a los niveles internacionales, y existe una variación considerable entre municipios en Brasil, lo que sugiere que convendría diseñar políticas específicas para cada región. El propósito de este trabajo es investigar los factores que determinan la mortalidad infantil a nivel municipal, así como ofrecer un análisis más detallado tomando en cuenta los factores que inciden en la salud infantil a nivel individual. Para analizar la tasa de mortalidad, se calculan modelos estáticos y dinámicos con datos de panel de cuatro censos que cubren el período de 1970 a 2000. La demanda de atención médica infantil se aborda mediante un modelo de toma de decisiones domésticas, calculado empleando datos antropométricos de la Encuesta de nivel de vida de 1996. Los resultados indican que la salubridad, la educación y el ingreso per cápita han contribuido a disminuir la mortalidad infantil en Brasil y que los efectos son más fuertes en el largo plazo que en el corto. Los efectos fijos vinculados con las características municipales explican en parte la dispersión observada de las tasas de mortalidad infantil. Los resultados del modelo de toma de decisiones se corresponden con los hallazgos del modelo de mortalidad: la educación, la salubridad y la pobreza son los factores más importantes que explican la precaria salud infantil en Brasil. Number 3188 2005-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-493&pub_file_name=pubR-493.pdf application/pdf Denisard Alves Walter Belluzzo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Los Sistemas Integrados de Información Social es el resultado de un trabajo de cooperación entre el Banco Inter-Americano de Desarrollo y un conjunto de investigadores de la región con el objetivo de colectar lecciones aprendidas en el diseño, la implementación y el seguimiento de los Sistemas Integrados de Información Social (SIIS) en seis países de la región. Los estudios incluyen los casos del SINTYS en Argentina, el Cadastro Único en Brasil, el SIIS y RIS en Chile, el SISBEN en Colombia, el SIPO-SABEN en Costa Rica, y el Padrón de Oportunidades en México. Estos sistemas tienen como objetivo principal integrar la información disponible en los países y servir como una herramienta para la priorización del gasto social que realizan las distintas entidades nacionales. Number 4712 2011-04 I31 O10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-TN-233&pub_file_name=pubIDB-TN-233_esp.pdf application/pdf Viviane Azevedo Cesar Bouillon alessandror@iadb.org Ignacio Irarrazaval

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The main contribution of this paper with respect to previous work is the use of data on subjective perceptions to identify the Latin American middle classes. This paper provides a set of comparisons between objective and subjective definitions of middle-class using data from the 2007 World Gallup Poll. Seven objective income-based definitions of social class are contrasted with a self-perceived social status measure. Mismatches between the objective and the subjective classification of social class are the largest when the objective definition is based on median incomes. Mismatches result from the fact that self-perceived social status is associated not just with income, but also with personal capabilities, interpersonal relations, financial and material assets, and perceptions of economic insecurity. Objective definitions of the middle class based on absolute incomes provide the lowest mismatches and the most accurate differentiation of the middle class from other classes. Number 4727 2011-12 D3 D6 I3 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36559121 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org Deisy Johanna Fajardo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the evolution of Brazilian wage gaps by gender and skin color over a decade (1996-2006), using the matching comparison methodology developed by Ñopo (2008). In Brazil, racial wage gaps are more pronounced than those found along the gender divide, although both noticeably decreased over the course of the last decade. The decomposition results show that differences in observable characteristics play a crucial role in explaining wage gaps. While in the case of racial wage gaps, observable human capital characteristics account for most of the observed wage gaps, the observed gender wage gaps have the opposite sign than what the differences in human capital characteristics would predict. In both cases the role of education is prominent. Gender, race, wage gaps, Brazil, matching Number 4626 2009-05 C14 D31 J16 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-681&pub_file_name=pubWP-681.pdf application/pdf Luana Marquez Garcia Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org Paola Salardi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper compares gender wage gaps for Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s using the non-parametric matching methodology introduced by Ñopo (2008), which allows an analysis not only of average gaps but also their distributions. While a simple comparison of average wages would suggest small or even negative gaps, the wage gap is substantial when workers with comparable human capital characteristics are considered. Although the gender wage gap declined from the mid-1990s to 2000, the gap appears to increase thereafter. The results also indicate that females have access barriers to certain human capital profiles, which contributes to wage gaps. The unexplained component of the gender wage gaps is more pronounced among poorer individuals. In Nicaragua, particularly, these unexplained gaps are negative for those at the lowest extreme of the earnings distribution. Gender, Race, Wage gaps, Central America Number 4639 2009-10 C14 D31 J16 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-111&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-111.pdf application/pdf Ted Enamorado Ana Carolina Izaguirre Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper shows that the factors affecting labor supply have been key determinants of the changes in employment, unemployment, and income differentials in Latin America in the 1990s. The two main forces driving labor supply in the region have been demographics and education. Number 4120 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-374&pub_file_name=pubWP-374.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the effects of the expansion of the water network in urban shantytowns in Argentina. We find large reductions in the presence, frequency, and severity of diarrhea episodes among children in the households reached by network expansions relative to the control group. Moreover, expanded water connections induce savings, as these families are able to substitute piped water for more expensive and distant sources of water. These health and savings effects are also important for households that previously had clandestine self-connections to the water network, which were free but of low quality. Number 3234 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-527&pub_file_name=pubR-527.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Galiani Martín González Rozada Ernesto Schargrodsky

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente estudio analiza los incentivos y factores institucionales que determinan la composición del magisterio y que influyen en su desempeño profesional. Se analizan los perfiles típicos (socioeconómicos, educativos y motivacionales) de los que estudian para ser maestros y de quienes ejercen dicha profesión. Asimismo, se documenta de manera detallada los incentivos y la estructura en general de la carrera docente en comparación con los de otros profesionales, y se realiza una comparación de la carrera docente y de las características de los maestros del sector público y del sector privado. Finalmente se realiza una primera estimación que aproxime el efecto que tienen algunas características contractuales sobre la propia percepción que tienen los maestros sobre su desempeño. El documento comprende seis capítulos. El primero incluye una breve descripción de la realidad de la escuela primaria. El segundo capítulo caracteriza la carrera docente analizando la oferta de formación docente y el perfil de quienes estudian para ser maestros. El capítulo tercero analiza los principales deberes y derechos del profesorado, así como las reglas que rigen para el ascenso de los profesores, sea en el ámbito público o el privado. El cuarto capítulo trata sobre las remuneraciones docentes y su estructura. En el capítulo cinco se presenta el perfil de los maestros en actividad. El capítulo seis analiza el desempeño de los maestros y el impacto que sobre el mismo tienen el régimen contractual y el tipo de institución. Finalmente se presentan un resumen y las conclusiones. Number 3109 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-410&pub_file_name=pubR-410.pdf application/pdf Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví Hugo Díaz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El objetivo del estudio es analizar de qué manera la estructura de los subsistemas de educación municipalizada y de educación privada bajo financiamiento público explica las diferencias existentes en la eficiencia, tanto externa como interna, que presentan ambos tipos de establecimientos educacionales. Se pone especial énfasis en identificar de qué manera aspectos como el entorno legal e institucional, el clima organizacional, la propiedad de los establecimientos, la autonomía financiera, las obligaciones constitucionales, la supervisión y control de los establecimientos, y la regulación del mercado de insumos, entre otros, generan distintos incentivos que condicionan la calidad y costo de los servicios que ellos entregan. Number 3001 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-302&pub_file_name=pubR-302.pdf application/pdf Cristian Aedo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se tratan las maneras en que los acontecimientos macroeconómicos pueden presionar a los bancos y, en casos extremos, conducir a crisis bancarias. Esto puede ocurrir de muchas maneras y no se trata ningún mecanismo específico. Estas causas macroeconómicas de la vulnerabilidad y las crisis de los bancos tienen implicaciones importantes para los regímenes regulatorios y para la política macroeconómica misma. Buena parte del análisis hace hincapié en la necesidad de fijar la política monetaria teniendo en mente la situación del sistema bancario nacional. Number 4035 1996-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-327&pub_file_name=pubWP-327.pdf application/pdf Nancy Birdsall Thomas C. Pinckney Richard H. Sabot

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44182019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo aprovecha un experimento cuasinatural realizado en Perú, en el que el gobierno ordenó a la compañía de telecomunicaciones privatizada que instalara aleatoriamente y operara teléfonos públicos en pequeños poblados en zonas rurales de todo el territorio nacional. Es posible, usando una encuesta de hogares preparada especialmente para una muestra representativa de poblaciones rurales, establecer una relación entre el acceso a los servicios telefónicos y el ingreso familiar. Se descubrió que, independientemente del nivel de ingresos, la mayoría de las características del uso del servicio telefónico público guardan una relación positiva con el ingreso. Resulta notable que se produzca un beneficio tanto a los niveles de ingreso correspondientes a las familias campesinas como a los de las familias no campesinas. Los hallazgos no sólo son válidos cuando se emplean variables instrumentales, sino que además se confirman cuando se emplean métodos de correspondencia de puntajes de propensión. Number 4418 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-535&pub_file_name=pubWP-535.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Virgilio Galdo Máximo Torero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se trata la experiencia única del Banco Central de Reserva de Perú con la fijación de metas inflacionarias, en una economía caracterizada por un elevado grado de dolarización financiera. Se esboza la manera en que Perú ha tomado en cuenta la dolarización de su sistema financiero en el diseño de su política monetaria, luego se trata la puesta en práctica de la política monetaria y la estrategia del Banco Central para controlar los riesgos de la dolarización del sistema financiero. El trabajo concluye con un análisis y las enseñanzas que arroja el caso peruano. Number 4424 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-538&pub_file_name=pubWP-538.pdf application/pdf Adrián Armas Francisco Grippa

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This document surveys the Uruguayan housing market, first describing the main housing programs and policies, then comparing their design with households’ characteristics and needs. The document additionally measures Uruguay’s housing deficit, using the basis deficit as well as quantitative and qualitative deficits, and provides a definition of housing informality that captures most irregular housing situations, thus delineating the size and attributes of the informal housing market. Considering both the housing deficit and informality permits an understanding of which population segments have the most urgent housing needs and whether they are currently eligible for participation in housing programs. Finally, the study considers how many households eligible for housing programs actually make use of them. Uruguay’s housing programs do not necessarily target those who actually need them. On the other hand, although eligible households have housing deficits that could be addressed through the use of specific housing programs, program usage remains low. Number 4752 2011-09 I38 O54 R21 R28 R31 R38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36397709 application/pdf Natalia Garabato Magdalena Ramada-Sarasola

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Much has been written recently about the problems for emerging markets that might result from a mismatch between foreign-currency denominated liabilities and assets (or income flows) denominated in local currency. In particular, several models, developed in the aftermath of financial crises of the late 1990s, suggest that the expansion in the "peso" value of "dollar" liabilities resulting from a devaluation could, via a net worth effect, offset the expansionary competitiveness effect. Assessing which effect dominates is ultimately an empirical matter. In this vein, this paper constructs a new database with accounting information (including the currency composition of liabilities) for over 450 non-financial firms in five Latin American countries. The authors estimate, at the firm level, the reduced-form effect on investment of holding foreign-currency-denominated debt during an exchange-rate realignment. It is consistently found that, contrary to the predicted sign of the net-worth effect, firms holding more dollar debt do not invest less than their counterparts in the aftermath of a depreciation. The paper shows that this result is due to firms matching the currency denomination of their liabilities with the exchange-rate sensitivity of their profits. Because of this matching, the negative balance-sheet effects of a depreciation on firms holding dollar debt are offset by the larger competitiveness gains of these firms. Number 4411 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-532&pub_file_name=pubWP-532.pdf application/pdf Hoyt Bleakley Kevin Cowan

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preprint In this post-modern world of high capital mobility, countries are being disciplined by the anonymous capital market. One view of the situation -perhaps the prevalent view among economists- is that Wall Street gets into your hair because you are running an unsustainable economic program and crises are bound to happen. A polar view is that countries are at the mercy of the capital market. This paper attempts to bring these views under one roof, putting special emphasis on balance-of-payment crises. Number 4008 1995-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-306&pub_file_name=pubWP-306.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The private provision of educational services has been representing an increasing fraction of the Peruvian schooling system, especially in recentdecades. While there have been many claims about the differences in quality between private and public schools, there is no complete assessment of the different impacts of these two type of providers on the labor markets. This paper attempts to provide such a comprehensive overview by exploring private-public differences in the individual returns to education in Urban Peru. Exploiting a rich pair of data sets (ENNIV 1997 and 2000) that include questions on type of education (public vs. private) for each educational level (primary, secondary, technical tertiary and university tertiary) to a representative sample of adults, this paper measures the differences in labor earnings for all possible educational trajectories. The results indicate higher returns to education for those who attended private schools than those who attended the public system. Nonetheless, these higher returns also show higher dispersion, reflecting wider quality heterogeneity within the private system. The private-public differences in returns are more pronounced at the secondary than at any other educational level. On the other hand, the private-public differences in returns from technical education are almost nonexistent. A cohort approach paired with a rolling-windows technique allows us to capture generational evolutions of the private-public differences. The results indicate that these differences have been increasing during the last two decades. Number 4516 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-603&pub_file_name=pubWP-603.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Calonico Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper addresses the relationships between innovation, research and development (R&D) and productivity in domestic ICT firms in Costa Rica. Factors considered were the types of innovation outputs produced by domestic ICT firms, the relative importance of innovation inputs, the impacts of innovation on firm productivity, the protection of innovations, and impediments to innovation. While most firms engaged in all types of output and input innovations, they appear to be driven by retaining or increasing market share rather than increasing productivity. Half of firms do not formally protect the intellectual property created by their innovations, are not familiar with methods for protecting innovation or the availability of government grants for such purposes, and face barriers associated with the Costa Rican Patent Office. Other impediments include lack of knowledge about financial resources available and scarcity of human resources. There is also evidence of knowledge spillovers through worker mobility from multinationals operating in Costa Rica to domestic ICT firms. Research and development, Information communications technology, Innovation, Costa Rica Number 4670 2010-06 L20 L63 L86 O31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-189&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-189.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Monges-Gonzalez John Hewitt

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La economía peruana creció sostenida y establemente desde los años cincuenta hasta mediados de los años setenta; a partir de entonces tuvo un decaimiento que duró hasta fines de los años ochenta, época en la cual el PBI por persona decayó a niveles del año sesenta. Una de las principales causas del crecimiento y crisis fue la inversión, cuya evolución explica lo que sucedió con el producto. A partir de 1991 se ha observado una recuperación del crecimiento, sostenido nuevamente por el aumento de la inversión (Gonzales 1996). El problema es que el ahorro interno fue relativamente suficiente para financiar la inversión sólo hasta inicios de los años sesenta; posteriormente -y hasta hoy-el Perú ha necesitado de mayor ahorro externo para crecer. En consecuencia, tiene una insuficiencia crónica de ahorro interno en relación a la inversión, pese a tener una tasa de ahorro promedio de 18. 9 , moderada para los estándares latinoamericanos. Number 3026 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-327&pub_file_name=pubR-327.pdf application/pdf Efrain Gonzales de Olarte Cecilia Levano Castro Pedro Llontop Ledesma

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys Ecuadorian entrepreneurs to ascertain the differences between middle-class and upper-class entrepreneurs and identify the variables associated with the “success” of a business. The paper also explores the variables that can determine the probability of upward intergenerational mobility. The paper finds that, although the level of social capital among Ecuadorian entrepreneurs is weak, it positively affects the chances of being a dynamic entrepreneur. Number 4801 2012-07 L26 M13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36990452 application/pdf Xavier Ordenana Elizabeth Arteaga

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31472019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In the 1990s Argentina implemented an ambitious structural reform program that brought about profound changes in the economy. The monetary and exchange rate regimes and the banking sector were no exception. In fact, during that decade the country displayed a unique combination of characteristics: 1. The exchange rate/monetary regime was a currency board between 1991 and 2001. 2. There were no obstacles to capital flows and tighter prudential regulations were introduced. 3. Private portfolios and banks` balance sheets were highly dollarized. Number 3147 2002-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-453&pub_file_name=pubR-453.pdf application/pdf Jose Maria Fanelli Ricardo N. Bebczuk Juan J. Pradelli

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper takes advantage of several reforms that provide time and cross sectional variation to identify the effects of unemployment insurance and severance payments on the duration of unemployment and on the separation probability in Argentina. Administrative data permits analysis of the duration of unemployment of covered spells with detailed information about transfers and their duration, while household surveys permit the study of separation probability and transitions to informal jobs, which are not observed in administrative data. It is found that unemployment duration increases significantly when unemployment insurance transfers are higher or are provided for a longer period; the effects of severance pay on unemployment duration are less robust. On the other hand, higher severance pay is found to reduce separation probability, while unemployment insurance transfers have a positive but small effect on separations. Number 4759 2011-12 I38 J64 J65 J68 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36610110 application/pdf Martín Gonzalez Rozada Lucas Ronconi Hernan Ruffo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper combines development and growth accounting exercises with economic theory to estimate the relative importance of total factor productivity and the accumulation of factors of production in the economic development performance of Latin America. The region’s development performance is assessed by contrast with various alternative benchmarks, both advanced countries and peer countries in other regions. The paper finds that total factor productivity is the predominant factor: low productivity and slow productivity growth, as opposed to impediments to factor accumulation, are the key to understanding Latin America’s low income relative to developed economies and its stagnation relative to other developing countries. While policies easing factor accumulation would help somewhat in improving productivity, for the most part, closing the productivity gap requires productivity-specific policies. Economic growth, Total factor productivity, Development Number 4653 2010-02 O11 O47 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-155&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-155.pdf application/pdf Christian Daude Eduardo Fernandez-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Peru has one of the highest informality rates in Latin America, with almost 60 percent of the urban labor force working at the margins of labor market legislation or in microenterprises that lack basic labor market standards (Marcouiller, Ruiz de Castilla, and Woodruff, 1997). This paper identifies two factors that can explain the variation in informality rates in the 1990s. First, Peru experienced a steady increase in employment allocation in traditionally “informal” sectors—in particular, retail trade and transport. Second, there was a sharp increase in nonwage labor costs, despite a reduction in the average productivity of the economy. In addition, the paper illustrates the negative correlation between productivity and informality by evaluating the impacts of the PROJOVEN youth training program. Number 4526 2007-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-609&pub_file_name=pubWP-609.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org José Galdo Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Ongoing climate change will increase competition for water. Diversified demand for water—in contrast with the rigid design of water systems, institutions and infrastructure—could hinder the implementation of adaptation policies in water management for Latin American countries. In this context, weather derivatives are proposed as a complementary mechanism for the successful adoption of more efficient water allocations in irrigation districts. Weather derivatives spread risks and incorporate a better understanding of climate system behavior, strengthening irrigation districts’ ability to deal with water availability and demand. The model uses a dynamic water resource allocation model, historical precipitation and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to find optimal water allocation strategies for the baseline scenario and in the presence of climate change. This analysis is applied to two irrigation districts in Latin America: one in Mexico and the other in Peru, with their corresponding particularities and results. Number 4793 2012-08 G13 O13 O54 Q15 Q25 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36876033 application/pdf Miriam Juarez-Torres Leonardo Sanchez-Aragon

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The goal of this paper is to study the link between bank credit (and internal funding) and average firm size in Argentina. Besides the fact that economic growth tends to go hand in hand with larger firm size, the topic is of particular interest because of the severe credit crunch in Argentina in the aftermath of the 2001-2002 financial crisis. To this end, a novel three-digit industry-level dataset spanning the 2000-2010 period was constructed. The results confirm the expected positive impact of credit supply on average firm size. Furthermore, the study expands on common knowledge by testing the sensitivity of firm size to internal funding and the differential financing behavior of the primary and the manufacturing sector. The results do not seem to be driven by endogeneity bias. Number IDB-WP-396 2013-03 D22 D23 G21 G32 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37705557 application/pdf Sebastian Auguste Ricardo N. Bebczuk Gabriel Sanchez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This is the first study that uniformly analyzes health perceptions in all of Latin America and tests in a systematic way their relation to economic conditions at the country, income group and individual levels. The study uses three types of health self-assessment questions: i) health satisfaction; ii) health status on a scale of 0- 10; and iii) the EuroQol 5D instrument (EQ-5D), which asks about mobility, self- care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, and anxiety/depression. The empirical analysis finds support for the hypothesis that cultural differences between countries prevent cross-national comparisons of health perceptions, but it does not find support for the widely held view that the same applies within countries, presumably because the poor are more tolerant of their health problems. Number 4757 2011-12 I10 J10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36610061 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper describes the privatization program carried out in the productive sector of the Colombian economy during the 1990s. It evaluates privatization within the policy context of general market deregulation and the promotion of private investment in the provision of public infrastructure and domiciliary public services. Two case studies are explored: the manufacturing and power sectors. The paper follows the ex-post measuring and econometric analysis of a set of operative and restructuring performance indicators for the privatized firms. For manufacturing, the study sample consists of 30 large manufacturing firms of which the Instituto de Fomento Industrial was the founding or supporting partner. The main findings suggest that those firms followed pro-cyclical behavior relative to their private competitors and undertook tight plant operative restructuring. For the power sector, the paper studies the impact of regulatory reform on market entry, ownership structure, market competition, and productive efficiency of the privatized holdings. The results suggest that privatization and entry competition in power generation have had a positive effect on the privatized utilities’ efficiency and investment. With respect to thermal generation, the measurement of productive efficiency follows a data envelope analysis technique based on a sample of 33 plants that account for 85% of the installed capacity. The sample units are plants that were active before the reform and new entrants that started business operations after the reform. The main outcome shows that efficiency scores have improved after the reform and that regulatory policy has had a positive effect on productive efficiency. Number 3151 2003-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-458&pub_file_name=pubR-458.pdf application/pdf Carlos Pombo Manuel Ramírez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Banks` market or `trading` risks have increased noticeably over the past years, largely as a result of the growth of liquid assets on banks` balance sheets and the increase in banks` off-balance sheet activities. Well-publicized bank failures and significant capital losses have focussed further attention on these developments. In January 1996, the Basle Committee recommended the imposition of capital charges related to banks` trading risks, and the European Community`s Capital Adequacy Directive (CAD) came into force on January 1st, adopting, in part, the Basle Amendment. The G10 countries are committed to full implementation of these recommendations by the end of 1997. This paper reviews the main features of the Basle Amendment, which allows banks a choice between a `standardized methodology` and the use of their own internal models, subject to the authorization of the relevant supervisor and a set of parameter values. The relevance of this regulation for Latin America is analysed in the light of the region`s characteristics. We suggest that these characteristics increase rather than diminish the importance of the implementation of market risk capital requirements in Latin America. Number 4072 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-347&pub_file_name=pubWP-347.pdf application/pdf Andrew Powell Veronica Balzarotti

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper consists of three case studies of the emergence of three successful export activities in Mexico: avocado production, the manufacture of catheters, and call center outsourcing. Each case study discusses how companies, associations, and governments at various levels have addressed market failures and facilitated the provision of public goods necessary for each activity. The case studies additionally profile first movers in each activity and describe the positive externalities they provide to imitators, particularly diffusion of export knowledge. Also include in each case study is a counterfactual case of a less successful activity (mangos, stem cell banking, and other types of business process outsourcing, respectively) and a section on policy implications. Agriculture, Exports, Manufacturing, Services, Mexico Number 3264 2009-02 H41 L26 L65 L84 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-555&pub_file_name=pubR-555.pdf application/pdf Edgar Aragon Anne Fouquet Marcia Campos

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes total factor productivity growth in agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1961 and 2007 employing the Malmquist Index, a non-parametric methodology that uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. The results show that among developing regions, Latin America and the Caribbean shows the highest agricultural productivity growth. The highest growth within the region has occurred in the last two decades, especially due to improvements in efficiency and the introduction of new technologies. Within the region, land-abundant countries consistently outperform land-constrained countries. Within agriculture, crops and non-ruminant sectors have displayed the strongest growth between 1961 and 2001, and ruminant production performed the worst. Additional analysis of the cases of Brazil and Cuba illustrates potential effects of policies and external shocks on agricultural productivity; policies that do not discriminate against agricultural sectors and that remove price and production distortions may help improve productivity growth. Total factor productivity, Agriculture, Crops, Livestock, Latin America and the Caribbean, Malmquist Index Number 4675 2010-05 O13 O47 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-186&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-186.pdf application/pdf Carlos Ludena

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Latin America is volatile--about two to three times as volatile as the industrial economies. It is more volatile than any region other than Africa and the Middle East. Latin America`s access to international financial markets is sporadic, and often disappears just when it would be most valuable. Number 4032 1996-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-326&pub_file_name=pubWP-326.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann Roberto Perotti Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45792019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the evolution of gender segregation in the workplace in Mexico between 1994 and 2004, using a matching comparisons technique to explore the role of individual and family characteristics in determining gender segregation and wage gaps. The results suggest that the complete elimination of hierarchical segregation would reduce the observed gender wage gaps by 5 percentage points, while the elimination of occupational segregation would have increased gender wage gaps by approximately 6 percentage points. The results also indicate that the role of occupational segregation in wage gaps has been increasing in magnitude during the period of analysis, while the role ofhierarchical segregation in the determination of wage gaps has been decreasing. Number 4579 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-636&pub_file_name=pubWP-636.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Calonico Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) ¿Deben las compañías propiedad del Estado cambiar de presidente ejecutivo en la antesala de su privatización? Ponemos a prueba opiniones encontradas sobre esta cuestión complementando una base de datos dada a conocer recientemente con datos también recabados recientemente. Podemos cubrir 77 procesos de privatización de empresas de telecomunicaciones, que representan casi 80% del ramo en términos de valor. Hallamos que el reemplazo del presidente ejecutivo hace mejorar el rendimiento de la actividad de telecomunicaciones antes de una privatización, en términos de penetración, eficiencia en operaciones y rentabilidad. El cambio de presidente ejecutivo antes de una privatización parece tener consecuencias reales sobre el desempeño de las empresas antes de su privatización. Además, los hallazgos se corresponden con investigaciones anteriores que vinculan el reemplazo del presidente ejecutivo con el aumento del precio de la privatización. Number 4322 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-481&pub_file_name=pubWP-481.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Virgilio Galdo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint We develop a model in which the elasticity of credit to exogenous shocks depends on creditor rights regulations. We show that an increase in creditor protection reduces the elasticity of credit supply to exogenous shocks, and hence the amplitude of the credit cycle. Using an extended set of a measure of creditor rights protection in the spirit of La Porta et al. (1998), we find that stricter creditor rights regulations not only increase the breadth of the credit market but also reduce the volatility of the credit cycle. Number 4249 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-443&pub_file_name=pubWP-443.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There are many sources of inflation forecasts for Latin America. The International Monetary Fund, Latin Focus, the Economist Intelligence Unit and other consulting companies all offer inflation forecasts. However, these sources do not provide any probability measures regarding the risk of inflation. In some cases, Central Banks offer forecast and probability analyses but typically their models are not fully transparent. This technical note attempts to develop a relatively homogeneous set of methodologies and employs them to estimate inflation forecasts, probability distributions for those forecasts and hence probability measures of high inflation. The methodologies are based on both parametric and non-parametric estimation. Results are given for five countries in the region that have inflation targeting regimes. Number 4785 2012-06 C53 E37 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36956066 application/pdf Rodrigo Mariscal Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45912019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper expands the micro-foundations of the traditional greed and grievance non-cooperative model of civil conflict between a government and a rebel group. First, the paper’s model allows for greed and grievance to be orthogonal, so that they may affect each other. Second, the model allows for the reaction curves of both parties in non-cooperative games to be substitutes and not inevitably complementary. Third, the paper allows for Diaspora transfers to rebel groups. Fourth, the paper expands external aid in the form of fungible financing of government transfers “buying” peace. These extensions provide a better understanding of conflict persistence, the consequences of competing international aid and why sub-optimal sanctions provision (“cheap talk”) by the international community are frequent. Number 4591 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-644&pub_file_name=pubWP-644.pdf application/pdf José Cuesta Syed Mansoob Murshed

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) In recent decades Latin America has not developed equitably. The region has had the highest level of inequality in the world, which permeates public opinion, intellectual circles and the direction of public policy. This brief discussion document evaluates the empirical support for these perceptions of the problems of inequality and poverty which are now widely held by people, intellectuals and policymakers. The objective is to offer statistical support for discussions on this issue at the Barcelona meeting. The following chapters have three objectives. First, discover concisely the major features of the trend in equity and poverty in Latin American countries over the last 25 years. Second, explain the high degree of inequality and lack of distributive progress during this period, explicitly evaluating the impact of structural reforms. Lastly, identify the main policy areas that should be on the public policy agenda in order to achieve more equitable development in the new century. Number 4080 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-352&pub_file_name=pubWP-352.pdf application/pdf Juan Luis Londoño Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Although financial development is good for long-term growth, not all countries pursue policies that render full financial development. This paper builds on an extensive political economy literature to construct a theoretical model showing that the intensity of opposition to financial development by incumbents depends on both their degree of credit dependency and the role of governments in credit markets. Empirical evidence for this claim is provided, and the results suggest that lower opposition to financial development leads to an effective increase in credit markets’ development only in those countries that have high government capabilities. Moreover, improvements in government capabilities have a significant impact on credit market development only in those countries where credit dependency is high (thus, opposition is low). This paper therefore contributes to this rich literature by providing a unified account of credit market development that includes two of its main determinants, traditionally considered in isolation. Financial development, Interest groups, Political economy, Government capabilities Number 4686 2010-09 G10 G18 G20 G38 O16 D72 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-207&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-207.pdf application/pdf Oscar Becerra Eduardo Cavallo Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The literature on child health suggests mother`s schooling is a key determinant of child health. Little is known of how other sources of maternal human capital contribute to her children`s health. This paper investigates the differential returns on child health of three sources of maternal human capital: schooling, cognitive ability and childhood background. Conditional on schooling and mother`s height, we first analyze the effect of maternal cognitive ability on her children`s health. Next, we relax the assumption of mother`s schooling and reasoning ability as predetermined variables and study the extent to which both returns reflect observed mother`s childhood endowments. We conclude by investigating the importance of mother`s schooling and cognitive ability in enhancing her offspring`s health during first-time motherhood. Results show maternal cognitive ability is an important factor in improving her children`s health. We find these returns robust to the inclusion of mother`s observed childhood endowments. However, estimates of mother`s schooling drop by 30 percent when we control for these variables. This suggests that unlike mother`s schooling, maternal returns to cognitive ability on child health are less likely to reflect mother`s childhood background. Finally, we find maternal reasoning ability to be an important factor in improving her children`s health in first-time motherhood. Our analysis is based on information gathered in the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS-1), which administered Raven`s Colored Progressive Matrices, and collected anthropometric outcomes. Our results focus on child height-for-age (0-17 years) z-scores as long-run health outcomes. Number 3192 2004-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-497&pub_file_name=pubR-497.pdf application/pdf Luis Rubalcava Graciela Teruel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper seeks to understand why political actors, institutions and legal reforms have systematically failed to produce cooperation in the Ecuadorian policymaking process. From a comparative and historical standpoint, Ecuador has been trapped in a cycle of low-quality public policies that fail to adjust to environmental conditions, that fluctuate according to political whims and that tend to favor well-organized lobbies rather than pursuing optimal social outcomes. The paper identifies two alternative policymaking paths leading to poor policy outcomes. In the first one, the executive agenda is eclipsed by the short-term clientelistic demands of multiple veto players in the legislature, thus contributing to policy deadlock or rigidity. In the second, executive power is delegated to a decisive, often technical bureaucracy isolated from political pressures, but the lack of institutional stability of such bodies leads to a pattern of policy volatility. Lastly, the paper discusses the formal and informal roles of "last-ditch" veto players to stall or revert unwanted policies. The paper also features two case studies on fiscal and monetary policies, and derives empirical implications to improve the formation of durable intertemporal agreements in the legislature and ensure stable policy implementation and enforcement through a technical bureaucracy and independent judiciary. Number 3226 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-523&pub_file_name=pubR-523.pdf application/pdf Andrés Mejía Acosta María Caridad Araujo Anibal Pérez-Liñán Sebastian Saiegh

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study examines the impact of unionization and the level of centralization in bargaining, at the level of the industry or the firm, on wages and on the economic performance of firms within the manufacturing sector in Uruguay, using a panel of establishments for the period 1988 to 1995. In doing so, we control for the degree of exposure to international and regional competition as well as for industry and firm characteristics. The main findings suggest that unionization increases wages and employment and promotes investment due to firms substituting labor by capital. Unions tend to organize in those plants with highest rates of profits, but promote increases in productivity and prevent profitability increases. The mechanism at work seems to be that firms moved to more capital-intensive technologies, hence increasing the rate of growth of labor productivity and reducing that of profitability. Given the negative effect of unionization at the industry level on the rate of growth of profitability of firms, results also suggest that unions tended to organize and to be stronger in those sectors in which extra rents were higher due to monopoly power. The evidence also suggests that firm-level negotiations take into account the interests of both parties, so that enhanced productivity and probably survival were achieved together with lower rates of substitution between labor and capital and/or lower profits. Number 3159 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-466&pub_file_name=pubR-466.pdf application/pdf Adriana Cassoni Gaston J. Labadie Gabriela Fachola

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analiza el vínculo entre la televisión y el divorcio en Brasil mediante el estudio de la variación en la distribución temporal de la disponibilidad de la señal de Rede Globo —la red televisiva que tenía prácticamente el monopolio de las telenovelas en el país— en zonas municipales. Se emplean tres rondas de datos de censo (1970, 1980 y 1991) y se controlan los efectos fijos por área y por características que varían con el tiempo, y se descubre que la parte de la población femenina que se separa o divorcia aumenta considerablemente una vez que la señal de Globo llega a la localidad. El efecto es robusto al control de factores determinantes potenciales de la estrategia de entrada de Globo y es más fuerte aún en el caso de zonas relativamente más pequeñas, donde la señal llega a un sector mayor de la población. Divorce, Television, Brazil, Soap Operas, Media, Women, Empowerment Number 4621 2009-01 O1 J12 N36 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-651&pub_file_name=pubWP-651.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Eliana La Ferrara

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys gender wage gaps in Colombia from 1994 to 2006, using matching comparisons to examine the extent to which individuals with similar human capital characteristics earn different wages. Three sub-periods are considered: 1994-1998; 2000- 2001; and 2002- 2006. The gaps dropped from the first to the second period but remained almost unchanged between the second and the third. The gender wage gap remains largely unexplained after controlling for different combinations of socio-demographics and job-related characteristics, reaching between 13 and 23 percent of average female wages. That gap is lower at the middle of the wage distributions than the extremes, possibly due to a gender-equalizing effect of the minimum wage. Moreover, the gap is more pronounced for low-productivity workers and those who need flexibility to participate in labor markets. This suggests that policy interventions in the form of labor market regulations may have little impact on reducing gender wage gaps. Gender, Ethnicity, Wage gaps, Latin America, Colombia, Matching Number 4673 2010-05 C14 D31 J16 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-174&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-174.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Hoyos Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org Ximena Pena

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The effects of market and policy reforms on poverty and inequality in Latin America have been of considerable concern. The region continues to have relatively great income inequalities. Two different societies with the same income distribution may have different levels of social welfare because they have different degrees of social mobility. To date little attention has been paid to measuring social mobility in the region. Schooling is thought to be a major mechanism through which intergenerational social mobility is affected. This paper explores the strength of the association of family background with child schooling and whether the strength of this association is related to some major macro and aggregate school policy variables. Number 4144 1998-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-386&pub_file_name=pubWP-386.pdf application/pdf Nancy Birdsall Jere R. Behrman Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se evalúa la manera en que los resultados electorales tanto en comicios presidenciales como legislativos en América Latina se han visto afectados por la adopción de políticas económicas concebidas para mejorar la estabilidad macroeconómica y facilitar el funcionamiento de los mercados. La base de datos incluye 17 países latinoamericanos durante el período 1985-2002, y un total de 66 elecciones presidenciales y 81 legislativas. El conjunto de hipótesis que se pueden poner a prueba proviene de un repaso de la obra publicada y se estructura alrededor de la hipótesis de la economía del voto. Se descubre que (i) se recompensa al partido oficialista si se produce una baja de la inflación y, en menor medida, si aumenta la tasa de crecimiento; (ii) mientras más fragmentado o ideológicamente polarizado sea el sistema partidista, mayores serán las recompensas electorales que genere una reducción de la inflación o un aumento del crecimiento económico, (iii) los electores se interesan no sólo por los resultados económicos, sino también por algunas de las políticas adoptadas: aunque el electorado parece no tomar en cuenta cuestiones macroeconómicas tales como las políticas fiscales o cambiarias, es contrario a las políticas favorables al mercado, independientemente de los efectos que éstas puedan tener en el crecimiento o la inflación, y (iv) el electorado es más tolerante de las reformas a favor del mercado cuando el partido oficialista tiene una ideología más orientada al mercado. Estos resultados sugieren que a los partidos reformistas les ha salido caro adoptar reformas de mercado, salvo en aquellos casos en que las mismas se hayan acometido conjuntamente con políticas de estabilización en economías altamente inflacionarias. Number 4406 2005-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-530&pub_file_name=pubWP-530.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Mauricio Olivera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Export Pioneers in Latin America analyzes a series of case studies of successful new export activities throughout the region to learn how pioneers jump-start a virtuous process leading to economic transformation. The cases of blueberries in Argentina, avocados in Mexico, and aircraft in Brazil illustrate how an initially successful export activity did not stop with the discovery of a single viable product, but rather continued to evolve. The book explores the conjecture that costly burdens to entrepreneurial self-discovery (due to the deterrent effects of imitation by competitors) have held back potential exporters in post-reform Latin America. It also considers the conjecture that new export activities are a complex enterprise that can only come to fruition when innovative contributions of many actors are somehow provided jointly. Number 4769 2012-04 F14 F19 O14 Q17 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36803174 application/pdf Charles Sabel Eduardo Fernandez-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ricardo Hausmann Andres Rodriguez-Clare Ernesto H. Stein ernestos@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the countercyclical policy options available to Latin American countries in the face of the current global economic crisis, concluding that most of the major countries in the region appear to possess the fiscal space (as measured by credible fiscal sustainability and debt headroom) to run prudent countercyclical fiscal deficits. Those countries should undertake a constrained fiscal expansion focused on productive public spending and financed by “rainy day” funds—large stocks of foreign exchange reserves that they have accumulated during recent years—rather than by market borrowing. The recent surge in multilateral financial activity to alleviate market illiquidity, whether intended for reserve or budget support, strengthens the case for this policy prescription: with multilateral support, the appropriate policy response is more expansionary, and its financing is less reliant on market borrowing. countercyclical policy, fiscal space, international reserves, multilateral financial support Number 4628 2009-06 E62 E63 F34 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-686&pub_file_name=pubWP-686.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernandez-Arias Peter Montiel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes sub-national revenues in Argentina. Following a discussion of the recent evolution of government revenues and their vertical imbalance, the paper then analyzes the most important taxes collected by federal, provincial and local governments. Subsequently considered are the determinants of sub-national revenues and the impact of the 2001-2002 crisis. It is found that automatic transfers improve collections of the cascade sales tax and the property tax by enlarging the disposable income of the private and public sector of the provinces favored by the regional redistribution of income, while discretionary transfers reduce own-source revenue effort and encourage public investment. The paper concludes by analyzing options to improve sub-national revenue mobilization and offering specific proposals, particularly in regard to improving the cascade provincial sales tax. Number 4765 2012-03 H71 H77 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36723041 application/pdf Daniel Artana Sebastian Auguste Marcela Cristini Cynthia Moskovitz Ivana Templado

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento reseña la enseñanza de economía en Argentina, empezando con los antecedentes relevantes y las principales características del Sistema Universitario Argentino antes de abordarse el tema principal desde sus orígenes hasta la evolución de los últimos años. A continuación se aborda directamente al análisis de la enseñanza en las tres universidades seleccionadas, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, y Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, utilizando los resultados de una encuesta de opinión a estudiantes e información recabada mediante entrevistas con informantes clave. Se concluye que, aunque la enseñanza de economía en Argentina se encuentra mayormente en buenas condiciones, sin embargo existen áreas específicas que presentan oportunidades para mejoramiento. Enseñanza de economía, Universidades, Argentina Number 4624 2009-04 A22 A23 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-671&pub_file_name=pubWP-671_esp.pdf application/pdf Gabriel Rozenwurcel Gabriel Bezchinsky Marisol Rodriguez Chantruc

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The recent wave of terrorist attacks has increased the attention paid to money laundering activities. Using several methodologies, this paper investigates empirically the determinants of money laundering and its regulation in over 80 countries by assembling a cross-country dataset on proxies for money laundering and the prevalence of feeding activities. The paper additionally constructs specific money laundering regulation indices based on available information on laws and their mechanisms of enforcement and measures their impact on money laundering proxies. The paper finds that tougher money laundering regulations, particularly those that criminalize feeding activities and improve disclosure, are linked to lower levels of money laundering across countries; the results are robust to potential endogeneity of money laundering regulation. The relevance of historical factors in explaining the variation of money laundering regulation across countries sheds light on theories of institutions and provides room for further action, particularly in the areas of the law that improve the impact of criminalization, including liability of intermediaries, reductions of the burden of proof and better disclosure. Number 4493 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-590&pub_file_name=pubWP-590.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Un análisis de varios estudios de casos específicos en la región sugiere que la capacidad de sostener una política monetaria creíble depende del grado de vulnerabilidad de los países a las repercusiones de las paradas repentinas. A este respecto, hay cuatro aspectos de vital importancia que atenúan esas repercusiones. La apertura de la economía de modo que se produzca un aumento de la oferta de bienes transables reduce la disminución de la absorción de dichos bienes que normalmente acarrea una parada repentina. Reducir el nivel de endeudamiento asegura que la depreciación del tipo de cambio real sea menor. Disminuir los descalces cambiarios en la composición de la deuda en relación con la composición de la producción reduce la vulnerabilidad a los efectos de la valuación. Por último, también es preciso acometer la exposición a posibles contingencias fiscales, a fin de disminuir la vulnerabilidad de las cuentas fiscales, tales como los costosos rescates de bancos producto de los descalces cambiarios en el sector financiero. Number 4328 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-484&pub_file_name=pubWP-484.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Para presentar nuestro trabajo hemos optado por comenzar con la fuente de conocimiento más obvia, las estadísticas policiales. En la primera parte analizaremos las dificultades de trabajar con ellas y el uso que hemos hecho. En la segunda parte analizaremos los datos que nos proporciona esta fuente. En la última, los datos de otras fuentes, de otras voces que nos permiten percibir las limitaciones de las estadísticas policiales y profundizar el conocimiento: una encuesta de victimización y los datos de la morgue de Caracas. Number 3072 1999-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-373&pub_file_name=pubR-373.pdf application/pdf IESA/LACSO IESA/LACSO

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a growth diagnostic exercise for Peru. It notes that although Peru has recently enjoyed high rates of economic growth, this growth is actually a recovery from a significant and sustained growth collapse that began in the 1970s. Income per capita has barely recovered to its historical peak, despite significant improvements in education, infrastructure, the financial system, political stability, institutional quality, and macroeconomic sustainability. The growth collapse was caused by a decline in export earnings due to the fall in international prices and an inadequate investment regime in export activities that led to a fall in market share. This situation led to collateral damage in the form of a balance of payments, fiscal, and financial crisis, accompanied by hyperinflation and violence, but these aspects were corrected in the 1990s. However, the transformation of the export sector has been surprisingly small: the same activities that declined – mining and energy – are the ones that are leading the current recovery in exports to levels that in real per capita terms are similar to those achieved 30 years ago. The authors argue that the lack of structural transformation is associated with Peru’s position in a poorly connected part of the product space and this accentuates coordination failures in the movement to new activities. In addition, Peru’s current export package is very capital intensive and generates few jobs, especially in urban areas where the bulk of the labor force is now located. This limits the welfare benefits of the current growth path. The key policy message is that the public sector must act to encourage the development of new export activities that better utilize the human resources of the country. This involves action on the macro front to achieve a more competitive real exchange rate, improvements in the capacity to solve coordination failures in the provision of specific public sector inputs, and programs to stimulate investment in new tradable activities. Number 2005 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-111&pub_file_name=pubCSI-111.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Bailey Klinger

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento analiza la importancia de la integración financiera en Centro América, enfatizando los efectos de la actual crisis internacional sobre los sistemas financieros de la subregión. Después de presentar evidencia sobre la integración financiera en Centro América y la compara con otros países de América Latina y otras regiones del mundo en vías de desarrollo, se describen dos factores importantes que han caracterizado el proceso de integración financiera en la última década y se analizan los efectos de la integración financiera y de la participación de la banca extranjera. Motivado por la actual crisis internacional, se enfatiza la respuesta de las variables financieras locales a shocks financieros internacionales. Finalmente, el documento deriva conclusiones y adelanta recomendaciones de política económica. Integración financiera, Sistemas financieros, Centro América Number 4663 2010-04 F36 G21 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-153&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-153_esp.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Liliana Rojas-Suarez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Baumol (1967) demostró que la tasa de crecimiento de una economía decrece si un sector tiene una productividad menor que otros y la demanda entre bienes es inelástica. En este trabajo se señala que el comercio es equivalente al progreso tecnológico en el sector de bienes comercializables. Por lo tanto, una economía abierta tiene un mayor ingreso pero menor crecimiento que una economía cerrada. Además, la reasignación de actividad de un país a otro puede tener un efecto negativo sobre la asistencia pública cuando se produce un aprendizaje mediante la experiencia en países específicos. Number 4015 1995-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-311&pub_file_name=pubWP-311.pdf application/pdf Antonio Spilimbergo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines Official Development Assistance (ODA) in the aftermath of large natural disasters between 1970 and 2008. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds that while the median increase in ODA is 18 percent compared to pre-disaster flows, the typical surge is small in relation to the size of the affected economies. Moreover, aid surges typically cover only 3 percent of the total estimated economic damages caused by the disasters. The main determinants of post-disaster aid surges are found to be the intensity of the event itself and the recipient country’s characteristics such as level of development, country size and stock of foreign reserves. The paper does not find evidence that political considerations or strategic behavior on the part of donors determine the size of post-disaster aid surges. Number 4792 2012-08 F35 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37054649 application/pdf Ilan Noy Oscar Becerra Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint It has been common to attribute financial crises to short-term capital inflows, while foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a safer form of finance. The relationship between crises and the composition of capital flows is particularly relevant at present because the flow of capital to Latin America is becoming increasingly dominated by FDI. This paper asks whether the composition of capital inflows and of the stock of foreign liabilities is relevant for financial crises, be it their frequency, depth, or length. It explores the possible role of FDI as a benign form of external liability relative to other classes of liabilities, reviewing both analytical and empirical arguments. Number 4201 2000-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-416&pub_file_name=pubWP-416.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that North-South trade accords can serve as credibility-enhancing mechanisms that induce additional foreign capital inflows into Southern partner nations. The presence of sovereign risk changes the tradeoffs between trade creation and diversion, enhancing the potential for regional trade accords to increase the welfare of accord members. Number 4060 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-341&pub_file_name=pubWP-341.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Mark M. Spiegel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper assesses the effects of different health conditions on happiness. Based on a large data set for Latin America, the effects of different conditions are examined across age, gender, and income cohorts. Anxiety and pain have stronger effects than physical problems, likely because people can adapt better to one-time shocks than to constant uncertainty. The negative effects of health conditions are very large when compared to the effects of income on happiness. While higher peer income typically elicits envy, better peer health provides positive signals for life and health satisfaction. Nonetheless, health norms vary widely across countries. The results suggest that the life satisfaction approach applied to surveys of health may contribute to better health expenditure and policy decisions. Happiness, Health economics, Public policy, Surveys Number 4635 2009-07 C83 I18 I30 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-100&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-100.pdf application/pdf Carol Graham Lucas Higuera Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In spite of the rapid fertility transition experienced by most Latin American and Caribbean countries, teenage fertility has not changed at the same pace or in the same direction. Given that early childbearing is deleterious for both mother and child, we describe differentials in the levels and trends in teenage childbearing and analyze its proximate and socioeconomic determinants. We used Demographic and Health Surveys data from six LAC countries for which data are available for the second half of the 1990s: Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Dominican Republic and Peru. Teenage fertility trends indicate different patterns of change across countries by area of residence. However, in most countries teenage fertility has increased in rural areas but declined or remained constant in urban areas. Different contributions of marriage, proper use of family planning methods, and premarital births to teenage fertility behavior are reflected in differentials in unmarried parenthood across countries. Socioeconomic determinants are analyzed through simple logit model, multilevel analysis, and continuous-time hazard rate models. These analyses improve on prior research on LAC countries by including contextual/regional factors, isolating the effects into differentials in sexual activity and rates of childbearing, and by comparing the socioeconomic determinants of the timing of first birth and premarital birth. This research demonstrates that the effect of socioeconomic variables on the rate of childbearing can act through the timing of initial sexual intercourse (such as education, socioeconomic conditions of the households and area or residence) or through the timing of first birth (such as socialization in a female-headed family, availability - cceptability - use of family planning, and regional - country conditions, such as cultural and inherent characteristics). Number 3131 2001-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-434&pub_file_name=pubR-434.pdf application/pdf Jairo Núñez Carmen Elisa Flórez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Since the mid-1980s a profound change of direction in the structural policies of the region has taken place. The development model based on protecting national markets and state intervention was replaced by a set of policies aimed primarily at seeking to improve efficiency, facilitate the operation of markets, and reduce the distorting effects of state intervention in economic activities. An earlier version of this article (Lora, 1997) was prompted by the absence up to that time of measurements of progress in reforms. As was then argued, the lack of direct measurements of structural policies had stood in the way of adequately evaluating the effects of the reforms on economic growth and other variables. The few studies that had attempted to analyze the effects of the reforms had used result variables, such as the foreign trade ratio of the economy, or the size of public spending, or financial depth, rather than policy variables, such as tariffs, tax rates, or reserve requirement ratios. The indices of reform that were proposed at that time served as the basis for various studies that analyzed the effects of the reforms and stimulated the construction of other reform indicators. Number 4293 2001-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-466&pub_file_name=pubWP-466.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analiza el efecto de los niveles de escolaridad sobre las brechas de sexo en el mercado laboral chileno. Se emplea un nutrido conjunto de datos sobre los resultados del mercado laboral, el logro académico y el rendimiento académico, así como las variables que caracterizan los antecedentes familiares. Aunque los resultados muestran diferencias de sexo estadísticamente significativas en varias dimensiones del mercado laboral chileno, esas brechas dependen mayormente del nivel de escolaridad de los individuos. Esos hallazgos no se deben tomar como una prueba decisiva de discriminación en el mercado laboral chileno. Number 3259 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-558&pub_file_name=pubR-558.pdf application/pdf David Bravo Claudia Sanhueza Sergio Urzua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Durante la última década, las políticas de reforma estructural de la región han sido dirigidas cada vez más a mejorar la eficiencia económica y reducir la interferencia del gobierno en las decisiones económicas. Los efectos de este cambio todavía no han sido evaluados precisamente, debido a la falta de mediciones sistemáticas de la magnitud de las reformas estructurales. El objetivo de este documento es resumir las características más sobresalientes del proceso de reforma durante la última década y proponer un método para cuantificar el estado de las políticas estructurales. Number 4075 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-348&pub_file_name=pubWP-348.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper evaluates the determinants of school attendance and work of rural adolescents between 10 and 18 years old in 1997-1998 for a sample of Latin American countries. Rural adolescents are quite disadvantaged relative to their urban counterparts. The share of rural adolescents studying while concurrently working part-time is significantly higher, household income is significantly lower, “supply-side” issues are an important factor in rural non-attendance, and to the extent that the educational attainment of the parents creates inter-generational persistence we find that rural youth are starting from a disadvantaged position. We present some statistical analysis that highlights these problems and also perform bivariate binary estimation to identify the determinants of these decisions. We find that for most countries critical determinants for making these choices are household income and parental education as well as household composition. Further, we find that there is evidence of a significant “trade-off” between working and studying. Finally, inter-generational factors allow for both a virtuous cycle and a vicious cycle. Number 3162 2002-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-469&pub_file_name=pubR-469.pdf application/pdf Lorena Alcazar Silvio Rendon Erik Wachtenheim

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Critics of globalization claim that foreign ownership of privatized firms is linked to negative post-privatization labor outcomes, such as more firing and less hiring. This paper uses new firm-level data for a cross section of countries to test this idea and provides evidence that foreign purchasers of state-owned enterprises tend to acquire firms that were already better restructured before privatization. Additionally, this paper does not find evidence that foreign participation in privatized firms is linked to negative labor outcomes. Number 4441 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-550&pub_file_name=pubWP-550.pdf application/pdf Virgilio Galdo Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Durante los últimos años se le ha dedicado una atención considerable al riesgo de descalce de los vencimientos en los mercados emergentes. Aunque este riesgo es de naturaleza microeconómico, los elementos de juicio obtenidos hasta ahora han tomado la forma de correlaciones de tipo macro. En este estudio se analiza empíricamente este mecanismo al nivel micro, mediante el uso de una base de datos de más de 3. 000 compañías cotizadas en bolsa en 15 mercados emergentes distintos. Se cuantifica el riesgo de la exposición a corto plazo mediante el cálculo, al nivel de empresa, del efecto que sobre la inversión tiene la interacción entre la exposición a corto plazo y los flujos agregados de capitales. Este efecto es (estadísticamente) nulo, contrariamente a lo que predice la hipótesis de descalce de los vencimientos. Esta conclusión sigue siendo valedera con el uso de una gama de estimadores distintos, medidas alternativas de flujos de capital y controles de los efectos de la devaluación y el acceso al capital internacional. Se descubren elementos de prueba que indican que las compañías con exposición a corto plazo pagan costos financieros más elevados y liquidan activos a precios de gallina flaca, pero el estudio no concluye que esta reducción del valor neto se traduzca en una baja de la inversión. Number 4434 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-545&pub_file_name=pubWP-545.pdf application/pdf Hoyt Bleakley Kevin Cowan

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The evidence shows that government spending for health in many developing countries benefits the well-to-do more than the poor. However, a combination of favorable political forces and sound public policies can shift the focus of government expenditures toward the poor. Doing this is an essential part of any effective poverty reduction program in developing countries. Number 4006 1995-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-305&pub_file_name=pubWP-305.pdf application/pdf Nancy Birdsall Robert Hecht

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues that where institutions are strong, actors are more likely to participate in the political process through institutionalized arenas, while where they are weak, protests and other unconventional means of participation become more appealing. This relationship is explored empirically by combining country-level measures of institutional strength with individual-level information on protest participation in 17 Latin American countries. Evidence is found that weaker political institutions are associated with a higher propensity to use alternative means for expressing preferences, that is, to protest. Also found are interesting interactions between country-level institutional strength and some individual-level determinants of participation in protests. Political institutions, Public policies, Institutional strength, Protests, Alternative Political Technologies, Political party representation, Ideology, Ideological extremism, Latin America Number 4643 2009-11 D72 D74 D78 H89 K42 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-110&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-110.pdf application/pdf Fabiana Machado Carlos Scartascini Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The main purpose of this paper is to provide a simple analytical framework that can guide the development of indicators of fiscal policy sustainability in economies which operate in a highly volatile macroeconomic environment. Number 3071 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-372&pub_file_name=pubR-372.pdf application/pdf Ernesto Talvi Carlos A. Végh

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper we review the literature on sovereign debt with particular emphasis on indexation and maturity and the main policy proposals related to these topics. We also advance some implications derived from our work. In Alfaro and Kanczuk (2005a, b, c), we modeled sovereign debt as a contingent claim following the framework developed by Grossman and Van Huyck (1988). Our framework, however, recognizes that contingent debt might be associated with incentive problems. Applying this framework to the study of the sustainability of sovereign debt, the tradeoff between nominal and indexed debt, and the optimal debt maturity, we find some of the proposals advanced in the literature regarding lengthening debt maturity and issuing nominal debt to be unsustainable in emerging (volatile) economies. Number 4459 2006-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-560&pub_file_name=pubWP-560.pdf application/pdf Laura Alfaro Fabio Kanczuk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43182019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo analizamos la manera en que los ciclos económico y de tasas de interés en países desarrollados inciden en la inversión extranjera directa (IED) destinada a los países en desarrollo. Después de agregar los flujos en tres grandes áreas de origen (Estados Unidos, Europa y Japón), hallamos que los flujos de IED son anticíclicos con respecto tanto a los ciclos de producción como a los de tasas de interés en las primeras dos, mientras que en Japón no exhiben ningún comportamiento cíclico, ni siquiera un comportamiento medianamente cíclico. Este hallazgo se corresponde con el hecho de que los egresos de IED y la inversión en el país tienden a desplazarse en direcciones opuestas durante los ciclos en EE. UU. y Europa, lo que obedece a la ponderación de los inversionistas de diversas oportunidades de inversión. En síntesis, y contrariamente a lo que habitualmente se afirma, concluimos que es probable que las recesiones en países industrializados hagan aumentar los flujos de IED, especialmente la dirigida a aquellos países con lazos estrechos con EE. UU. y Europa. Number 4318 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-479&pub_file_name=pubWP-479.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Ugo Panizza Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las grandes diferencias entre los mercados financieros que hay actualmente en América Latina y cuánto cabe anticipar que cambien en un marco de integración total sugiere que las limitaciones financieras al desarrollo económico de América Latina tienen mucho que ver con lo incompleto de la integración de los mercados financieros de la región al sistema financiero mundial. En este trabajo se sugiere que la causa subyacente de la limitada integración de América Latina a los mercados financieros mundiales no son las barreras explícitas a las transacciones financieras internacionales. Más bien, lo que impide la integración son las debilidades de los mercados financieros internos de los países latinoamericanos en su intermediación de los flujos internacionales de capitales. Un enfoque adecuado de integración financiera puede fortalecer y profundizar el sistema financiero nacional al permitir importaciones indirectas de los bienes públicos necesarios (provenientes de los países de origen de los bancos) y permitir una mayor diversificación de los riesgos propios de cada país. Number 4053 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-337&pub_file_name=pubWP-337.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Document Available in Spanish) Fiscal deficits on average only 1. 4% of GDP; debt coefficients on the decline; early debt repayments to the International Monetary Fund and massive repurchases of Brady bonds that 15 years ago were the last salvation for overly endebted governments. This doesn`t look like Latin America, the region with the strongest tradition of macroeconomic instability in the world and the longest history of noncompliance with its public debt commitments. However, these are some of the fiscal events that have been occurring since the beginning of 2006, a particularly favorable time for the region. Number 4457 2006-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-559&pub_file_name=pubWP-559.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Mauricio Cardenas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents an investigation of subnational government bailouts in Germany. In the first part we briefly describe the system of fiscal federalism in Germany. The main part of the paper examines the bailout of two West German states. We identify the causes of the financial crisis in both states and examine the institutional settings as well as the ruling of the Constitutional Court that forced the federal government to provide bailout transfers. In addition, we investigate the impact these transfers had on the fiscal performance of both states. In a further section we provide evidence on bailouts of local governments by German states. A final section summarizes our results and presents policy conclusions. Number 3097 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-396&pub_file_name=pubR-396.pdf application/pdf Helmut Seitz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se amplía el análisis de las bases micro del modelo tradicional contencioso de interacción en conflictos civiles entre gobiernos y grupos rebeldes, como función de avaricia y agravio. Los anexos permiten entender mejor la persistencia de los conflictos, los efectos de la competencia que representa la ayuda internacional y el motivo de que la comunidad internacional sea tan propensa a adoptar disposiciones ineficaces de sanción (“amenazas vacías”). Number 4592 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-644&pub_file_name=pubWP-644.pdf application/pdf José Cuesta Syed Mansoob Murshed

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43992019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper develops a model showing that inefficient legal protections disproportionately increase financial restrictions for creditors that have less wealth. Due to fixed monitoring costs in equilibrium, banks will not monitor small firms, and therefore these firms will adopt risky technologies that imply a higher probability of bankruptcy. This implies that inefficiencies in the bankruptcy procedure will have a greater effect on small firms vis-à-vis large ones. Using a survey of firms in 62 countries around the world (WBES) and econometric techniques that allow us to deal with observed and unobserved country-specific components, as well as with partial endogeneity, the paper explore the role of creditor protection on small and medium-size enterprises access to bank credit. It is found that better protection of creditors reduces the financing gap between small and large firms. Number 4399 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-527&pub_file_name=pubWP-527.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42332019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper integrates information from both economics and the physical sciences to survey the effects of natural disasters in the region. A first section surveys the human and economic impact of natural disasters in the region at both the household and aggregate levels, noting both the geographical distribution of disaster risk and its long-term implications for development. A second section reviews types of disasters prevalent in the region, and future disaster risks, as well as the socio-economic sources of vulnerability to disasters resulting from development and migration patterns. A third section discusses risk management strategies at the household and community level, with public policy options and proposals for emergency response and finding an appropriate mix of local, national and market-based solutions. Number 4233 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-434&pub_file_name=pubWP-434.pdf application/pdf Céline Charvériat

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper fills a void in the issue of determinants of privatization prices by concentrating in one industry across many countries. This has not been done before, as the literature has only focused on (i) many industries in one country, (ii) a single industry in one country, and (iii) many industries in many countries. We complement a recently released database with newly collected data, and we are able to cover 84 telecommunications privatizations, which account for nearly 80 percent of the sector in terms of value. Our findings are consistent with the little existing work on privatization prices, as our best policy prescription is primarily to concentrate on the transparency and cleanliness of the privatization process, as sale methods do matter. We show that government administration of labor downsizing may result in adverse selection, as the best workers are the first to leave when given the opportunity. Number 4319 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-480&pub_file_name=pubWP-480.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Virgilio Galdo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize’s public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize’s debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies. Number 4522 2007-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-607&pub_file_name=pubWP-607.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Patricio Valenzuela Eduardo Borensztein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Como parte de un ambicioso programa de reformas iniciado con la reducción unilateral de aranceles en 1989, durante lo corrido de los noventa en Colombia se adoptaron medidas tendientes a redefinir la estructura y funcionamiento del sistema financiero. Así, se facilitó la entrada de nuevos intermediarios, se orientó el sector hacia la multibanca, se hicieron más estrictas las normas prudenciales, se simplificaron los encajes, se desmontaron las inversiones forzosas y el crédito de fomento y se avanzó en el proceso de privatización. El hilo conductor del proceso de reforma ha sido el logro de un sector financiero más eficiente, sólido y competitivo, con mayor participación del capital privado, tanto nacional como extranjeroUn objetivo implícito del proceso de reforma financiera iniciado en 1989 ha sido la reducción de los márgenes de intermediación, tradicionalmente elevados en comparación no sólo con países desarrollados sino también con diversos de similar grado de desarrollo relativo. El propósito del presente trabajo es estudiar la evolución y los determinantes del margen bancario durante lo corrido de la presente década, período no sólo de importantes reformas estructurales, sino además de rápido incremento de la actividad bancaria. Así, excepción hecha de 1996, los créditos bancarios han crecido más rápido que la economía en su conjunto. Number 3024 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-325&pub_file_name=pubR-325.pdf application/pdf Roberto Steiner Adolfo Barajas Natalia Salazar

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines whether bank ownership (public versus private, domestic versus foreign) is correlated with bank lending behavior over the business cycle. The paper finds that state-owned banks may play a useful credit-smoothing role because their lending is less responsive to macroeconomic shocks than the lending of private banks. The paper investigates whether this differential behavior is due to an explicit objective of stabilizing credit or to the presence of "lazy" public bank managers; evidence is found in support of the former hypothesis. In the case of foreign-owned banks, the paper finds that the results are less clear-cut and argues that this finding is in line with existing theoretical models. Number 4385 2004-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-520&pub_file_name=pubWP-520.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper identifies Chile`s economic weaknesses and offers policy recommendations for increasing stability. Current problems include weak international financial links, a Central Bank mandate that is ill-designed to deal with terms of trade shocks, a propensity to waste scarce liquidity in the banking system; and limited development of financial markets. The paper`s policy recommendations include improving external financial links, molding terms of trade contingencies into anti-cyclical policies, Improving liquidity aggregation through and within the banking sector during crises, and improving the liquidity and immediacy of domestic financial instruments. Number 4211 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-421&pub_file_name=pubWP-421.pdf application/pdf Ricardo J. Caballero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Should state-owned enterprises change chief executive officer before privatizing? We test competing views on this question by complementing a recently released database with newly collected data. We are able to cover 77 telecommunications privatizations, which account for nearly 80 percent of the sector in terms of value. We find that CEO replacement will improve performance in the telecommunications industry before privatization as measured by penetration, operating efficiency, and profitability. CEO change before privatization does appear to have real consequences in firm performance before privatization. Moreover, findings are consistent with previous research that links CEO replacement and an increase in privatization prices Number 4321 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-481&pub_file_name=pubWP-481.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Virgilio Galdo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The aim of this study is to achieve a better understanding of corporate governance structures and mechanisms outside the United States by looking at a specific emerging economy: Venezuela. We first build a corporate governance practices index for publicly listed companies in this country; the overall results indicate that Venezuela exhibits relatively low corporate governance scores. Using this limited sample, we are able to find a positive relation between this corporate governance index and its sub-components and alternative measures of value (Tobin`s q, price-to-book ratio, and dividend payout). In this environment, together with an underdeveloped financial market, a weak legal system, poor law enforcement, and high ownership concentration, we then address the question of whether the existing corporate governance system works at all in Venezuela. In particular, we are interested in studying the following two questions, which constitute a necessary condition for any corporate governance system to work. First, are poorly-performing CEOs more likely to be removed compared to well-performing CEOs? Second, is the role of the board to monitor the CEO or merely to serve as an advisor? To this end, we collected detailed data from 51 Venezuelan firms from 1984 to 2002. After controlling for characteristics related to CEO, board, ownership, firms, and time periods, we find that poor financial performance significantly increases the likelihood of CEO and director turnover. The empirical evidence is also consistent with the idea that directors in Venezuela play mainly an advisory role and not a monitoring role of the CEO. Number 3214 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-517&pub_file_name=pubR-517.pdf application/pdf Urbi Garay Maximiliano González

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper proposes an agenda for the study of the determinants and the processes by which strong policymaking institutions emerge, with emphasis on the most central democratic institution: the legislature. It reviews extant theories of institutionalization, and proposes further ways of specifying and studying the concept. It emphasizes the notion that investments and beliefs are the driving force of Congress institutionalization and of its relevance in the policymaking process. Making use of several indicators of Congress institutionalization, it provides evidence suggesting that Congress institutionalization has an impact on the qualities of public policies and on economic and social development outcomes. It also explores some 'constitutional' factors that may promote Congress institutionalization. Given that a central theoretical argument of this paper is that the institutionalization of legislatures is a process that includes various self-reinforcing dynamics, the paper also undertakes the preliminary steps in developing a comparative case study of the evolution of Congress institutionalization in two Latin American countries: Argentina and Chile. Number 4817 2012-12 D70 D72 H0 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37327712 application/pdf Valeria Palanza Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este artículo compara las condiciones de crecimiento económico de China y de América Latina con el fin de evaluar los temores de que la economía china desplace a la latinoamericana en las próximas décadas. Las fortalezas de China se basan en el tamaño de su economía, su estabilidad macroeconómica, la abundante mano de obra barata, la rápida expansión de la infraestructura física y la capacidad para innovar. Las debilidades de China tienen su origen en la poca separación que existe entre el mercado y el Estado e incluyen la débil gobernabilidad corporativa, un sistema financiero frágil y una mala asignación del ahorro. América Latina y China comparten debilidades importantes: el imperio de la ley es débil, la corrupción endémica y la educación es baja y está mal distribuida. Aunque los temores de desplazamiento de los sectores industriales y de la inversión extranjera son exagerados, China puede ser una fuente de inestabilidad financiera internacional con efectos potencialmente muy dañinos para América Latina. Number 4420 2005-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-536&pub_file_name=pubWP-536.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys the recent literature on fiscal sustainability, with particular emphasis on emerging market countries. It discusses the main elements that differentiate emerging market countries from industrial countries and then discusses how probabilistic models can help to evaluate fiscal sustainability in an uncertain environment. Based on this discussion, the paper uses Ecuador to illustrate an application of the probabilistic model, and of the framework to evaluate the impact of shocks to current account financing on sustainability. Number 4371 2004-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-511&pub_file_name=pubWP-511.pdf application/pdf Carlos Díaz Alvarado Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan los motivos que hay detrás de los bajos niveles de aporte a los programas de seguridad social en países en desarrollo. Empleando un conjunto considerable de encuestas armonizadas de hogares latinoamericanos, comparamos los patrones de aporte de empleados asalariados, cuya participación es obligatoria, con los patrones de aporte de trabajadores independientes, para los cuales la participación es a menudo voluntaria. En todos los países, los niveles de aporte entre trabajadores asalariados guardan una correlación parecida con el nivel de educación, el ingreso, el tamaño de la compañía, las características del hogar y la edad. Además, los patrones de aporte entre trabajadores asalariados guardan una elevada correlación con los patrones de aporte de los trabajadores independientes. Nuestros resultados indican que, en promedio, más de 30% de la variación aclarada de los patrones de aporte en un país puede deberse a la poca disposición de los particulares a participar en programas de pensiones durante sus años de ancianidad. No obstante, también hallamos elementos de prueba que sugieren que algunos trabajadores quedan excluidos del sistema de seguridad social contra su voluntad, por motivos de racionamiento. Number 4422 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-537&pub_file_name=pubWP-537.pdf application/pdf Paula Auerbach María Eugenia Genoni Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:10012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper addresses three areas of regulatory policy involving mobile telephony in Latin America. These questions are examined in relation to case studies on Colombia, Bolivia, and the Dominican Republic, followed by policy recommendations. First, in the area of access regulation, government regulation and the adoption of private-sector agreements on the basis of a model contract are preferable to voluntary negotiations. Second, local fixed-line service providers should ideally be excluded from mobile telephony. When this is not possible, they should only participate in geographic areas where they do not dominate local fixed-line service, and they should be required to maintain strict managerial, accounting, and legal separation of mobile and fixed-line activities. Third, unlimited entry into mobile phone markets is preferable to concessions through exclusive licenses or auctions. Number 1001 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=C-102&pub_file_name=pubC-102.pdf application/pdf Carlos Lapuerta Juan Benavides Sonia Jorge

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper assesses the extent to which a country’s external capital structure can aid in mitigating the macroeconomic impact of oil price shocks. Two Caribbean economies highly vulnerable to oil price shocks are considered: an oil importer (Jamaica) and an oil exporter (Trinidad and Tobago). From a risk-sharing perspective, a desirable external capital structure is one that, through international capital gains and losses, helps offset responses of the current account balance to external shocks. It is found that both countries could alter their international portfolio to provide a better buffer against such shocks. Hedging, Oil, Foreign assets and liabilities, International portfolios Number 4667 2010-05 F3 G1 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-107&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-107.pdf application/pdf John D. Burger Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org Francis E. Warnock Veronica Cacdac Warnock

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper models an energy tax reform process out of a status quo and towards environmentally related excises, distinguishing between uniform and non-uniform tax components, positive and normative tax structures, and adopting a non- Ramsey specification. The model is implemented for Argentina, Bolivia and Uruguay, and a rebalancing of fuel taxes is found where gasoline and diesel are the main drivers, due in part to higher estimates of the environmental costs of diesel relative to gasoline than those found in Parry and Strand (2010) for Chile. Environmental (mostly local) gains of the reform are significant, while fiscal impacts are positive and large. They do not, however, include double dividend effects because of price increases in widespread energy inputs triggered by the reform exercise. The tax reform has a positive distributive impact in Uruguay, while large pre-existing price distortions tend to produce negative impacts in Argentina and Bolivia. Number 4807 2012-11 H23 Q40 Q51 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37254284 application/pdf Fernando Navajas Monica Panadeiros Oscar Natale

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se identifican las debilidades económicas de Chile y se ofrecen recomendaciones de políticas para mejorar la estabilidad. Los problemas actuales incluyen vínculos financieros internacionales débiles, un mandato del Banco Central precariamente diseñado para tratar las sacudidas de los términos de intercambio, la propensión a desperdiciar la poca liquidez que hay en el sistema bancario y el desarrollo limitado de los mercados financieros. Las recomendaciones de políticas del trabajo incluyen el mejoramiento de los vínculos financieros externos, la transformación de los términos de contingencias comerciales en políticas anticíclicas, el mejoramiento de la liquidez agregada a través del sistema bancario y dentro del mismo durante las crisis, y el mejoramiento de la liquidez y la inmediatez de los instrumentos financieros nacionales. Number 4212 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-421&pub_file_name=pubWP-421.pdf application/pdf Ricardo J. Caballero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) This work attempts to answer the question: How has trade and financial liberalization affected inequality and poverty in Latin America? To do this, we use a methodology to estimate the effect of economic liberalization on inequality and poverty, and apply it to a database developed from 93 household surveys in 17 Latin American countries, with information from 1977 to 2000. The two most important results are, first, that trade liberalization does not seem to have had distinguishable effects on changes in inequality and poverty in the region during the 1980s and 1990s. If it had any effect, it was negative (progressive) but insignificant from the statistical point of view. The second result is that financial liberalization has had a significant effect on increasing inequality and poverty. Number 4261 2001-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-449&pub_file_name=pubWP-449.pdf application/pdf Jere R. Behrman Nancy Birdsall Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues that the investor reluctance to make long-term commitments to Latin American financial markets results from experience. In the 1980s, while ex ante real interest rates on Latin American financial assets were usually high, ex-post real interest rates were often highly negative. In the 1990s, policymakers instituted stabilization programs and structural reforms that have improved the environment in which financial markets operate. Based on a review of experiences in the region, this paper shows that, when these opportunities are taken, investor confidence in long-term markets is strengthened. Number 4028 1996-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-320&pub_file_name=pubWP-320.pdf application/pdf Liliana Rojas-Suárez Steven R. Weisbrod

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the political economy of productivity-related policymaking in Chile following a political transaction cost model (Spiller and Tommasi, 2003; Murillo et al., 2008). The main findings indicate that i) the Chilean policymaking process (PMP) was successful in the 1990s in implementing productivityenhancing policies, but as the country moved to a higher stage of development, the PMP grew less adept at generating the more complex set of policies needed to increase productivity at this stage; and ii) the Chilean PMP is less transparent than previously thought (Aninat et al., 2008), thus allowing political actors to favor private interests without being punished by the electorate. This has become apparent as the more sophisticated reforms needed at this stage of development require a deeper and more consolidated democracy. Economic policy, Institutional reforms, Productivity, Pensions, Education, Innovation, State modernization, Competitiveness, Chile Number 4662 2010-04 L52 O25 O40 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-105&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-105.pdf application/pdf Cristobal Aninat Jose Miguel Benavente Ignacio Briones Nicolas Eyzaguirre Patricio Navia Jocelyn Olivari

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Since the mid-1980s Brazil has experienced a period of great macroeconomic instability. Examining the evolution of the primary balance during these years, one identifies three markedly distinct periods: 1985 to 1989, 1990 to 1994, and 1995-96. The average primary surplus increased from 0. 6 percent of GDP in 1985-89, to 3. 1 percent in 1990-94, falling back to less than 0. 1 percent of GDP in 1995-96. The reduction in the operational deficit between 1985-89 and 1990-94 reached almost 5. 5 percent of GDP, with more than half of the improvement coming from falling interest payments. Between 1990-94 and 1995-96, the operational deficit widened by 4. 5 percent of GDP. Only less than a third of that variation may be attributed to rising interest payments. All the rest came from the vanishing primary surplus. Number 3020 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-321&pub_file_name=pubR-321.pdf application/pdf Rogerio L.F. Werneck Afonso S. Bevilaqua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a rational political budget cycle model for an open economy, in which devaluations are delayed in the pre-election period so as to increase the electoral chances of the party in office. By concentrating on closed economies, previous political cycle models had overlooked the influence of elections on the behavior of exchange rates. Voter uncertainty is introduced in two different dimensions. Not only are voters uncertain regarding the competency of the incumbent, but tey also ignore the degree to which the incumbent is opportunistic. Number 4164 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-396&pub_file_name=pubWP-396.pdf application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein Jorge M. Streb

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys the system of sub-national own revenues and the inter- governmental transfer system (including the sharing of oil revenues) in Brazil, highlighting their critical flaws. The latter include heavy reliance on a mixed- origin/destination-based value-added tax and many sub-national governments’ inadequate exploitation of the tax bases assigned to them. The paper then discusses reform priorities, outlining a comprehensive reform strategy and some initial steps that could be taken toward its implementation in the near term, as well as related political economy considerations. Number 4772 2012-05 H21 H22 H24 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36903959 application/pdf Teresa Ter-Minassian

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the links between labor formality, access to credit and firm performance in Colombia using Annual Manufacturing Survey data for the period 2000-2009. A significant though small relationship is found between access to credit and informality. The results suggest that a 10 percent increase in the ratio of credit to sectoral output increases labor formality between 0. 76 and 1. 14 percentage points. This effect vanishes as a firm’s financial constraint increases. The paper also reports a strong correlation between labor formality and firm performance measured as output and employment growth. A one percentage point increase in labor formality is associated with an 8. 5 percent increase in output and an 11 percent increase in employment growth. Number 4773 2012-06 E26 G21 O16 O4 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36903581 application/pdf Lorena Caro Arturo Galindo Marcela Melendez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analiza el caso de la profundización del crédito hipotecario en Argentina durante los años 90 y se lo compara con el fracaso de los años 80. Se muestra que la estabilidad macroeconómica condiciona el desarrollo del mercado y que con las instituciones legales y de mercado apropiadas (competencia entre bancos y contratos en dólares) se logra un rápido despegue. El precio real de la propiedad y el desempleo influyen en la evolución del mercado, el cual se amplía al ritmo del aumento de la capacidad disponible para préstamos de los bancos. La hipoteca compitió con éxito con otras aplicaciones de fondos de los bancos por su capacidad de diversificar riesgos y su seguridad de cobro. Recientemente, una gravísima crisis macroeconómica llevó a una racha de incumplimiento de contratos que vulneró el derecho de cobro de hipotecas. La reconstrucción del mercado se anticipa muy lenta, dada la experiencia de los años 80. El proceso probablemente comprenderá la creación de alguna moneda de cuenta para la denominación de los contratos, la implementación de instrumentos del mercado de capitales alternativos a los bancarios y la mejora de la información, a fin de reducir los costos de transacción y conectar la demanda con inversionistas interesados en el negocio hipotecario. Number 4352 2004-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-498&pub_file_name=pubWP-498.pdf application/pdf Marcela Cristini Ramiro Moya

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo presenta un análisis de las relaciones entre el diseño de los Entes Reguladores, el contexto económico en el cual éstos actúan, y la existencia o no de algún tipo de sesgo en sus decisiones. Con ese fin, se examina la ocurrencia o no de distintos factores que se han identificado en el paradigma "principal-agente" tal como éste se aplica a las instituciones políticas en la nueva teoría positiva de la regulación, en cinco casos concretos de la experiencia argentina reciente: los Entes Reguladores de Agua y Cloacas de Buenos Aires, de Transmisión y Distribución de Gas Natural y Energía Eléctrica, y de Telecomunicaciones. Entre los aspectos de diseño, por ejemplo, se considera la composición, estabilidad, financiamiento, supervisión y atribuciones de los Entes, mientras que en lo referido al contexto se analiza el número de empresas reguladas, el grado de competencia entre éstas, la visibilidad de las decisiones del regulador, etc. El número de decisiones regulatorias considerado es relativamente escaso, razón por la cual los resultados obtenidos sólo deben considerarse como preliminares. Las conclusiones que se obtienen de este estudio son que en aquellos casos donde tanto el diseño como el contexto actúan en el mismo sentido, generando el mismo tipo de hipótesis sobre la tendencia en el accionar del regulador, la evidencia observada no contradice lo esperado, y muy por el contrario, tiende a confirmar las hipótesis postuladas. Esto ocurre en los casos de Energía Eléctrica, Gas Natural y Agua y Saneamiento: en los dos primeros, sus decisiones aparecen insesgadas o levemente "oportunistas", mientras que en el último ocurre lo contrario. En el caso de telecomunicaciones, ciertos aspectos del contexto tienden a acentuar los factores de diseño institucional, pero otros elementos del ambiente regulatorio actúan en sentido inverso, con lo cual la predicción teórica es indefinida, aunque en forma previsible en este caso, las decisiones son tomadas en niveles superiores del gobierno. English: The paper looks at the design and context of operation of newly created, formally autonomous, regulatory agencies in different sectors at the federal level in Argentina (including water and sewarage in Buenos Aires, natural gas, electric power and telecommunications). It tries to predict what kind of incentives should be expected of those agencies (i. e. , a more concentrated industry should be expected to be able to better coordinate "transfers" and disclosure of information to the regulator and thus, ceteris paribus, this would imply a consistent bias to favor the industry in the regulator`s use of the discretion enjoyed in interpreting facts to justify decisions, etc. ). The implicit model behind our theory is one of an agent responding to various principals with conflicting objetives, where the principals are less informed than the agent but offer "transfers" linked to results to help the agents internalize their objectives. We then look at actual decisions taken by those agencies (the sample is small, but to our knowledge, unbiased) to see if those expected biases do happen. We conclude preliminarily that they do happen, and thus that design and context of operation of regulatory agencies, all of them sharing the same institutional foundations of the same country at the same historic period, are important for agency behavior (which should be expected, but we do not confirm, impacts upon the regulated firms´ behavior in terms of investment, disclousure of information, cost minimization, etc. ). Number 3038 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-340&pub_file_name=pubR-340.pdf application/pdf Santiago Urbiztondo Fernando Navajas Daniel Artana

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper documents the maturity structure of firms` debt in Ecuador and discusses how it has been affected by government intervention in credit markets and by financial liberalization. Using firm-level panel data, we then investigate the determinants of access to long-term debt. Finally, we provide evidence on the impact of the maturity structure of debt on firms` performance, in particular on productivity and capital accumulation. Number 3153 2002-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-460&pub_file_name=pubR-460.pdf application/pdf Fabio Schiantarelli Fidel Jaramillo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se evalúa el Programa Joven, un programa de capacitación dirigido por el Ministerio del Trabajo de Argentina. Se adapta y aplica una metodología de evaluación no experimental para dar respuesta a las siguientes preguntas: (1) ¿Aumentó el Programa Joven el ingreso de los participantes por concepto de trabajo? (2) ¿Aumentó el Programa Joven la probabilidad de conseguir empleo? (3) ¿Cuál fue la tasa de retorno de los dólares invertidos en el Programa Joven? La metodología básica que se siguió fue la de estimadores correspondientes. La aplicación de esta metodología exige que se sigan dos pasos: en primer lugar, la estimación de un modelo de participación en el programa (puntajes de propensión) y, en segundo lugar, dependiendo de los puntajes de propensión calculados, el uso de estimadores correspondientes para calcular los efectos del programa. Se emplearon tres fuentes de información distintas para calcular los puntajes de propensión. Estas diferentes fuentes de información permiten el análisis de una pregunta más: ¿qué tan sensibles son los cálculos de los efectos de los programas a las diversas especificaciones de los puntajes de propensión? Esta cuestión no ha sido abordada por la obra publicada anterior, pero sí lo es aquí. En este trabajo se presenta la hipótesis de que los cálculos de los efectos son, de hecho, sensibles a las diversas especificaciones de los puntajes de propensión. Además, se informa sobre y comparan los puntajes de propensión calculados a partir de cada una de estas fuentes de datos, y luego se calculan los efectos del programa sobre los ingresos y el empleo, basándose en esos puntajes de propensión. Por último, los autores realizan un análisis de costo-beneficio del Programa Joven, basándose en los datos de costos y las estimaciones de los efectos del programa (beneficios). Number 3176 2004-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-483&pub_file_name=pubR-483.pdf application/pdf Cristian Aedo Sergio Nuñez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La obra publicada sobre la utilidad procedimental y los beneficios sicológicos derivados de la participación política, hace pensar que la gente que toma parte en actividades políticas tiende a sentirse más satisfecha con su vida, gracias a la sensación de autonomía, competencia y comunidad que produce esa participación. Datos a nivel del individuo compilados en América Latina muestran —en uno de los conjuntos de datos estudiados, mas no en otro— que existe una relación positiva y estadísticamente significativa entre el ejercicio del voto y la satisfacción con la vida. No obstante, en Costa Rica, la variación en el deseo de votar sugiere que el sentido de causalidad va de la felicidad al voto y no al contrario. Además, el uso de modelos de múltiples niveles revela una relación negativa sistemática de un país a otro entre el ejercicio obligatorio del sufragio y la felicidad, que hasta ahora no ha sido explicada teóricamente. Sólo se han hallado resultados preliminares sobre la relación entre algunas otras formas de participación política y la satisfacción con la vida. Number 4584 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-638&pub_file_name=pubWP-638.pdf application/pdf Rebecca Weitz-Shapiro Matthew S. Winters

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues for a multi-level explanatory model for understanding institutional reform. The expanding but still modest accumulation in the field tends to clump together different levels of efficient causes. Statements like “reform will be more likely in countries that have swiftly proceeded with macroeconomic reform and stabilization and have the legitimacy and power to push further reform” refer to general political conditions. The notion that reforms will be harder where costs are concentrated and benefits diffuse for beneficiaries, as in the case of Social security reform, relate to sector-specific aspects. Thirdly, the idea that bundling can constitute a viable political strategy for overcoming vetoes refer to concrete strategic devices. Finally, a strong policy entrepreneur behind a reformist impulse is nothing other than a contingency. General enabling conditions, sector-specific configurations, the use of strategic devices and contingent factors all contribute to the success or failure of reformist attempts. This analytic divide is indispensable in imposing some order on the rival explanations attempting to grasp the political logic of institutional reform. Using the case of Uruguay, we seek to show how a changed political environment combined with sector- specific configurations and political strategies of reformist leaders allowed for successful institutional reform. More specifically, we claim that the dynamics of electoral politics and political learning are the clues that explain how the dynamics of cooperation and conflict in the political system in Uruguay moved from free rider behavior, to opposition restraint and finally to cooperative reformism thus enabling institutional reform. Furthermore, for our three cases of reform, technical accumulation and precise diagnosis, the power of administrative and beneficiaries corporations, the perception of the population regarding the quality of services and benefits, and the effects of the institutional diseases on the country as a whole appear as critical factors accounting for the intensity of the reformist impulse. Finally we shall show how changes in the broad political environment were capitalized in social security and education and not in health not only due to the use of strategies that linked sector reform to the broader political process in the first two cases and not in health. Strategies that successfully divided or neutralized losers and identified clear winners were also behind successful reformism. Regarding the launching and sustainability of reforms, both the creation of new stake holders and the adequate use and knowledge of the institutional structures and its potential veto points proved critical. Number 3049 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-351&pub_file_name=pubR-351.pdf application/pdf Fernando Filgueira Juan Andrés Moraes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El llamado modelo europeo de integración de mercados ha venido evolucionando a lo largo de muchas décadas. En particular, el plan original de integrar económicamente a Europa por la vía de un programa progresivo de harmonización de legislaciones nacionales, especialmente en el campo de los mercados financieros, ha cedido a una alternativa radical basada en el reconocimiento mutuo de los estados miembros de la legislación y la normativa nacional en vigor. Dado que ese cambio se puso en marcha más que nada por motivos pragmáticos, el enfoque de reconocimiento mutuo ha adquirido desde entonces una dimensión ideológica y estratégica en las negociaciones políticas que le confiere aún más importancia al estudio de sus repercusiones en el terreno. Number 4101 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-362&pub_file_name=pubWP-362.pdf application/pdf Benn Steil

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper attempts to establish a formal relationship between innovation and productivity using Colombian firm-level data. It is found that the production of goods and services new to the firm and to the domestic market enhances firms` sales per worker, and innovation that results in introducing new goods and services to the international market boosts both sales and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Innovation in processes likewise improves firms` productivity and sales. Finally, innovation in marketing and management increases sales per worker and enhances TFP when investment is made in Research and Development. The paper also studies the factors behind firms` decision to invest in innovation, the intensity of such investment and the returns to investment in innovation. Number 4717 2011-05 C21 C31 C34 C35 L60 O31 O32 O14 O47 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36152836 application/pdf Maria Angelica Arbelaez Monica Parra Torrado

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preprint This discusses the unique experience of Peru`s Central Bank with inflation targeting in an economy characterized by a high degree of financial dollarization. The paper outlines how Peru has taken financial dollarization into consideration in the design of monetary policy, then deals with monetary policy implementation and the Central Bank`s strategy for controlling financial dollarization risks. The paper concludes with analysis and lessons drawn from the Peruvian case. Number 4423 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-538&pub_file_name=pubWP-538.pdf application/pdf Adrián Armas Francisco Grippa

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo forma parte de una serie de estudios realizados en el marco del proyecto “La efectividad de las redes de protección social: El rol de los sistemas integrados de información social”. Los estudios de caso fueron realizados en el período 2007-08. Se agradecen los comentarios de Amélia Cohn, Lúcia Maria Modesto Pereira y Paulo de Martino Jannuzzi. El texto fue traducido y editado en español por Juan Ernesto O. S. Alonso. Number 4701 2011-01 H83 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-TN-182&pub_file_name=pubIDB-TN-182_esp.pdf application/pdf Leticia Bartholo Ricardo Rodrigues Dutra

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the decentralization process in Colombia, particularly as it relates to reforms embodied in the 1991 Constitution, and the bailouts of territorial entities that have occurred in subsequent years as a result of perverse incentive structures. The paper provides a summary of the basic features of the decentralization process in Colombia, including an analysis of revenue and expenditure assignments, the intergovernmental transfer system and recent developments in terms of territorial indebtedness. Specific case studies involve the determinants of three types of bailouts by the central government to territorial entities: the provision of soft loans to be used by departments to restructure their finances, the bailout of territorial entitities` education expenditures, and the Medellin Metro. The paper concludes with lessons learned and policy recommendations Number 3138 2002-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-442&pub_file_name=pubR-442.pdf application/pdf Juan Jose Echavarria Carolina Renteria Roberto Steiner

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32182019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines corporate governance practices in Costa Rica. First, it estimates corporate governance charter measures using firm-level data for 87 Costa Rican firms and studies their impact on the firms` performance; here, the mean of the corporate governance charters for the publicly traded firms is equal to 56. 14. Second, new evidence is presented on de jure and de facto corporate governance charter measures at the firm level and on their effect on the performance of the firm. The results indicate that de facto corporate governance is better than de jure corporate governance. These results suggest that firms must implement a set of additional measures to compensate for the weakness of the legal environment. Also, evidence is presented that better corporate governance and charter measures are associated with superior firm performance. Third, this paper examines the final controllers of publicly and non-publicly traded firms and links them with their dividend policies. Family firms are common in Costa Rica and are not necessarily linked to better firm performance. Fourth, the ownership evolution of Costa Rican firms is studied. Finally, changes in the Commercial Code are examined from a good corporate governance practices view. Number 3218 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-519&pub_file_name=pubR-519.pdf application/pdf Gilberto E. Arce Edgar Robles C.

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El desarrollo de América Latina en las últimas décadas no ha sido equitativo. La región ha tenido el grado de desigualdad mas alto del mundo. Ello permea la opinión pública, los circulos intelectuales y la orientación de las políticas públicas. Este breve documento de discusión evalúa el soporte empírico de tales percepciones que se han generalizado sobre los problemas de desigualdad y pobreza entre las gentes, los intelectuales y los responsables de la política. Su objetivo es brindar apoyo estadístico a las discusiones sobre el tema en la reunión de Barcelona. Los capítulos siguientes buscan cubrir tres propósitos. Primero, describir sucintamente los grandes razgos de la evolución de la equidad y la pobreza en los países latinoamericanos en los últimos 25 años. Segundo, explicar la alta desigualdad y la falta de progreso distributivo durante este período, evaluando en forma explícita el impacto de las reformas estructurales. Finalmente, identificar las principales areas de política que deberían estar en la agenda de política pública para lograr un desarrollo mas equitativo en el nuevo siglo. Number 4081 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-352&pub_file_name=pubWP-352.pdf application/pdf Juan Luis Londoño Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines for the first time the association of different ownership and control measures and separation ratios with a firm`s value and performance for 108 non-financial firms that traded their stock during the period 1998 to 2002. Large blockholders were found to exert a positive influence upon a firm`s valuation and performance, which validates the positive monitoring approach of large shareholders, but it was also found that this relationship is not monotonic, implying that when separation of control and ownership tends to increase, a negative effect is exerted on firm`s valuation. This paper also reports the first estimates of a survey of corporate governance practices conducted in 2004 for 43 Colombian non-financial companies. The corporate governance index`s (CGI) scores suggest that implementation of good governance in Colombian firms has been slow and poor, as measured by an index average that is below half the maximum attainable value. Regrettably, it was not possible to find any support to recent theories that predict a positive association between good governance practices -as measured by the CGI - and performance. At most, there exists a positive relationship for the sub-index, but the results were not statistically significant in general. Number 3216 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-518&pub_file_name=pubR-518.pdf application/pdf Luis H. Gutiérrez Carlos Pombo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Recent financial crises and contagion call into question the wisdom of capital account liberalization. There is consensus that something is terribly wrong in the way international financial markets work for developing countries and that fixing is urgent. But what is wrong? Most views in developed countries identify the problems with too much capital flows, attracted by moral hazard. However, our analysis shows that the role of this distortion is being grossly exaggerated and that, in contrast, the main distortions in international financial markets are associated with capital flows being too little, restricted by sovereign risk, and too volatile because of market failures. Number 4225 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-429&pub_file_name=pubWP-429.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using objective institutional historical data we test the link between extent, duration, and transparency in democracies and rent-seeking behavior using time-series and panel data approaches. In this paper we focus on the case of Uruguay, an ethnically homogeneous country. We find three main results. First, democratic regimes are negatively linked with rent-seeking actions. Second, the longer the duration of democracy, the less rent-seeking in a society. Third, legislation enacted more transparently is negatively correlated with rent-seeking behavior. Our results are robust to the use of different econometric methods and basic robustness tests and are consistent with prevailing theory. Number 4415 2005-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-534&pub_file_name=pubWP-534.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys the evolution and implications of fiscal decentralization in Colombia in recent decades. After describing the fiscal decentralization process and its impact on sub-national finances, the paper presents the evolution of departmental public finances, departmental vertical imbalances and the proposal to levy a VAT surcharge and a retail sales tax for the departments. The paper subsequently describes the evolution of municipal finances and municipal vertical imbalances, then includes calculations of the effective rates of the property and land tax and the industry and commerce tax, estimating the municipal tax burden, the efficiency rate of tax collection, and the determinants of both. The paper concludes with policy recommendations. Number 4820 2012-12 H3 H7 H71 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37324667 application/pdf Fabio Sanchez Torres Irina Espa–a Eljaiek Jannet Zenteno Gonzalez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses data from the Argentine House of Representatives to study the relationship between legislative effort and political success, as measured by reelection, becoming a leader of the House, and moving to higher political positions. It is found that more effort is associated with a higher probability of being reelected, and also that for those legislators that are reelected, higher effort is positively associated with acquiring leadership positions in the House. This happens in a context of fairly high legislative turnover and in a political context in which career paths of legislators are largely dictated by provincial party leaders. Interestingly, it is found that higher legislative effort is associated with a lower probability of improving politically outside Congress. These findings suggest the presence of various alternative career paths for Argentine politicians, and some degree of sorting. The paper concludes with some speculation on these politician types and with ideas for further research. Number 4814 2012-12 C79 D02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37358269 application/pdf Martín A. Rossi Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper provides a long-term historical and econometric account of the way in which geography has shaped development in the Mexican states. The emphasis is placed on the way in which the natural geography is reinforced by political decisions, which configure the human geography of population density, urbanization and public good provision, which in turn determine income, growth and poverty. The paper presents brief historical instances of how geography has determined prospects for development at different moments in Mexican history. This anecdotal discussion seeks to highlight the intrinsic link of geography with political institutions, which is central to understanding the economic effects of geography. The paper then presents a descriptive statistical and geographical profile of the relationship between geography and development in Mexico. The paper argues that the main channel through which geography affects development is political. The fragmentation of political jurisdictions in the form of municipal governments constitutes a proxy for man-made barriers to geographic mobility, which explain the interaction between geography, politics and development. Number 3139 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-443&pub_file_name=pubR-443.pdf application/pdf Roberto Blum Alberto Díaz Cayeros

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates potential Mexican sub-national tax revenues using a stochastic frontier model. The results suggest that states are exploiting their current tax bases, particularly the payroll tax, appropriately. Mexican municipalities, however, have a low rate of tax collection compared to their potential, especially in relation to the property tax, which is their most important source of revenue and relatively simple to collect. Empirical evidence further suggests that tax collection efforts are strongly related to GDP per capita, and that some political economy factors can influence them. Political affiliation, for example, influences municipalities' tax collection effort more than that of states. The analysis of a scenario in which some VAT and PIT taxation powers are returned to the states suggests that a state surcharge on the VAT and PIT could increase states' own revenues. Without broadening the tax base and redefining the revenue-sharing allocation criteria, however, doing so would have a strong and adverse impact on the revenue distribution of sub-national governments. Number 4806 2012-11 H3 H7 H71 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37275683 application/pdf Luis Cesar Castaneda Juan Pardinas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Es mucho lo que se ha escrito recientemente sobre los problemas de los mercados emergentes que pueden ser producto del descalce entre los pasivos denominados en divisas y los activos (o flujos de ingresos) denominados en la moneda del país. En particular, varios modelos desarrollados tras las crisis financieras de finales de los años 90 sugieren que el aumento del valor en términos de pesos de los pasivos en dólares producto de una devaluación puede compensar, mediante un efecto de valor neto, las repercusiones de la competencia expansionista. Determinar con precisión cuál de los dos efectos es el predominante es, en última instancia, una cuestión empírica. Desde esta óptica, en este trabajo se elabora una nueva base de datos con información contable (incluida la composición en divisas de los pasivos) de más de 450 compañías no financieras en cinco países latinoamericanos. Los autores calculan, al nivel de empresa, el efecto de forma reducida que tiene la tenencia de instrumentos de deuda denominada en divisas sobre la inversión, durante un período de reacomodo del tipo de cambio. Se ha hallado de manera sistemática que, contrariamente al signo predicho del efecto del valor neto, las compañías que tienen más deuda en dólares no invierten menos que sus contrapartes a continuación de una depreciación. El trabajo muestra que este resultado se debe a que las compañías hacen corresponder la denominación en divisas de sus pasivos con la sensitividad de sus ganancias al tipo de cambio. Esta correspondencia permite que las compañías que mantienen deudas en dólares compensen los efectos negativos de una depreciación en su balance general con el mayor grado de competitividad que obtienen. Number 4412 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-532&pub_file_name=pubWP-532.pdf application/pdf Hoyt Bleakley Kevin Cowan

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of the study is to identify the role of geographical variables in explaining differences in per capita income among Brazilian states. It also aims at ascertaining the degree to which such variables affect convergence or divergence trends in per capita income among these states. In order to investigate these issues it uses micro-data, instead of the more traditional aggregate data, averaged up from household to birth cohort level. Both the level and the change in average household income per capita across Brazilian states are correlated to geographical and household variables. The aim is to capture not only the influence of household human capital and wealth variables on the convergence of per capita income (along the lines of the neoclassical model), but also that of spatial or geographical characteristics, such as public infrastructure, health and education services. Therefore, this paper simultaneously considers data on geographical variables and repeated cross-sections of household surveys. The use of cohort level data means that we can construct cohort/state/year means for all variables of interest and control for state, life cycle and composition effects for the first time in this literature. The results indicate that the geographical variables seem to be important determinants of income levels and growth. Altogether, the results indicate that human capital and infrastructure variables are important areas for government intervention, as these are some of the main factors behind the differences in steady-state rates of income growth in Brazil. Number 3096 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-395&pub_file_name=pubR-395.pdf application/pdf Carlos A. Azzoni Naercio Menezes-Filho Tatiana de Menezes Raúl Silveira-Neto

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preprint Public policies are the outcome of the interaction among a variety of key political actors, each with its own preferences and incentives, who meet in different arenas and interact within the constraints of the institutions that frame their engagement. Therefore, to recognize the reasons behind the success or failure of any public policy it is necessary to understand the country’s political institutions and the policymaking process they in turn help shape. This document looks at a number of those key actors, institutions, and arenas, with the aim of examining the roles, incentives, and capabilities of each of the actors in the policymaking process, by drawing from an extensive literature in political science and political economy. Each of the actors is looked at individually but connected to the other actors by linking the impact of political institutions on their incentives to the features of the policymaking game. Hopefully, this document will provide researchers with the tools necessary to embark in the fascinating analysis of policymaking processes not only for Latin American countries but also for other parts of the world. Number 4483 2007-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-580&pub_file_name=pubWP-580.pdf application/pdf Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La opinión convencional es que los tipos de cambio fijos permiten una mayor disciplina fiscal que los tipos flexibles, pero las experiencias recientes en Europa, la experiencia de los países subsaharianos en los años 80 y los antecedentes de los intentos de estabilización en América Latina suscitan dudas sobre esta opinión. Para analizar este acertijo presentamos un modelo intertemporal estándar con perfecta movilidad del capital y flexibilidad de precios, en el que la política fiscal es determinada de manera endógena por una autoridad fiscal maximizadora. Number 4005 1994-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-303&pub_file_name=pubWP-303.pdf application/pdf Aaron Tornell Andrés Velasco

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preprint During much of the previous era of globalization, from the 1860s until the First World War, U. S. tariffs were surprisingly high. Present-day economic historians have suggested that U. S. protection as the result of a "backlash" against globalization that was the beginning of its decline. They have also argued that the backlash holds a lesson for the present: specifically, that we must attend to the distributive inequities that globalization engenders, or else globalization will again plant the seeds of its own destruction. I show that U. S. tariffs were not the product of backlash. A history of economic ideas in the nineteenth century United States, centered on two tariff commissions in 1866-1870 and 1882, reveals that the ideas debated in intellectual and policy circles alike bore no trace of globalization backlash. The important feature of U. S. intellectual and tariff policy history is not globalization backlash, but rather the absence from most historical accounts of certain thinkers and ideas that were crucial to the debate. Accordingly, the lesson that history holds for the present is not that we must attend to globalization`s inequities. (That lesson is likely to stand or fall apart from history. ) Instead it is that we need to attend to the /idea/ of backlash, which has a foothold in history that is deeper than the evidence. The lesson implies that to understand the present and future of globalization, what are required are histories of ideas. Number 4311 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-476&pub_file_name=pubWP-476.pdf application/pdf Stephen Meardon

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preprint This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a GVAR model for five large Latin American economies shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three times since the mid-1990s, while the long-term impact of a US GDP shock has halved, while the transmission of shocks to Latin America and the rest of emerging Asia GDP (excluding China and India) has not changed. These changes owe more changes in China’s impact on Latin America’s traditional and largest trading partners than to increased direct bilateral trade linkages boosted by the decade-long commodity price boom. These findings have important implications for both Latin America and the international business cycle. Number 4732 2011-09 C32 E32 F44 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36397788 application/pdf Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi M. Hashem Pesaran Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org TengTeng Xu

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan las prácticas de conducción empresarial en Costa Rica. En primer lugar, se calculan las medidas de conducción empresarial constitutivas empleando datos específicos de 87 compañías costarricenses, y se analizan sus efectos en su desempeño; aquí, la media de la conducción empresarial constitutiva de compañías cotizadas en bolsa es igual a 56. 14. En segundo lugar, se presentan nuevos elementos de juicio sobre las medidas constitutivas de la conducción empresarial de jure y de facto al nivel de compañía y sobre sus repercusiones en el desempeño de las mismas. Los resultados indican que la conducción empresarial de facto es mejor que la conducción empresarial de jure. Estos resultados sugieren que las compañías deben aplicar un conjunto de medidas adicionales para compensar la debilidad del entorno jurídico. Además, se presentan indicios de que una mejor gestión de conducción empresarial y medidas constitutivas se vinculan con un desempeño superior de la empresa. En tercer lugar, en este trabajo se analizan los factores que controlan en última instancia a las empresas cotizadas y no cotizadas en bolsa, y se establecen vínculos entre ellas y sus políticas de dividendos. Las empresas familiares son corrientes en Costa Rica y no necesariamente se vinculan con un mejor desempeño empresarial. En cuarto lugar, se estudia la evolución de la propiedad de compañías en Costa Rica. Por último se analizan cambios del Código de Comercio desde el punto de vista de la buena conducción empresarial. Number 3219 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-519&pub_file_name=pubR-519.pdf application/pdf Gilberto E. Arce Edgar Robles C.

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los efectos de las reformas de mercado y de políticas sobre la pobreza y la desigualdad en América Latina han sido motivo de considerable preocupación. La región sigue exhibiendo desigualdades de ingresos relativamente grandes. Dos sociedades distintas con la misma distribución del ingreso pueden tener niveles distintos de seguridad social porque tienen grados distintos de movilidad social. A la fecha es poca la atención que se le ha dado a la cuantificación de la movilidad social en la región. La escolaridad se considera un mecanismo importante a través del cual se realiza la movilidad social intergeneracional. En este trabajo se analiza la validez del vínculo entre la extracción familiar y la educación de los hijos y si la fortaleza de dicho vínculo guarda o no relación con algunas variables educacionales importantes a los niveles macro y agregado. Number 4145 1998-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-386&pub_file_name=pubWP-386.pdf application/pdf Nancy Birdsall Jere R. Behrman Miguel Székely

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preprint (Available only in Spanish) The main purpose of this work is to review the factors and the dynamic of financial internationalization, along with the actions that a country should take to prepare to maximize the net benefits of this integration. Finally, the work evaluates the actions that governments should take to facilitate an ordered and gradual integration of the financial sectors. Number 4096 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-360&pub_file_name=pubWP-360.pdf application/pdf Vittorio Corbo

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) ¿Volverán a dispararse los flujos de capitales hacia América Latina a medida que los países de la región se vayan recuperando de la recesión de 1998-99? ¿Y volverán a desplomarse nuevamente poco después, repitiendo así el ciclo del pasado? ¿Hay alguna diferencia de fondo con la nueva ola de flujos de capitales que altere este patrón histórico, un cambio radical en la manera en que la región se vincula financieramente con los mercados internacionales de capitales? ¿O no hay nada verdaderamente nuevo bajo el sol y la nueva ola de flujos de capitales será simplemente un cambio de marea con una secuela de retiro de capitales y sequía en los mercados financieros? En este trabajo se abordan estas importantes cuestiones, sobre las que hay mucha controversia. Number 4200 2000-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-415&pub_file_name=pubWP-415.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

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preprint Unemployment is regarded as one of the most challenging economic problems facing the governments of the Caribbean. Although there are variations in the measurement of unemployment, official estimates obtained from labor force surveys indicate that in 1995 the unemployment rate ranged from 7. 8 percent in Antigua/Barbuda to 19. 7 percent in Barbados. This paper explores unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago. Number 4134 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-381&pub_file_name=pubWP-381.pdf application/pdf Andrew S. Downes

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preprint A randomized controlled trial was carried out in Bogota, home to the majority of Colombia’s internally displaced persons (IDPs), to assess whether the use of short message service (SMS) technology effectively informed this population of its eligibility to receive social benefits. The methodology was to randomly inform half of the sample population’s households of their eligibility via SMS and estimate the Local Average Treatment Effect of the text message on the awareness of available benefits. While the findings conclude that on average treated households are more aware of their rights, a more disaggregated analysis suggests there is variation of awareness across benefit type. The analysis further suggests that the intervention was successful in empowering IDPs and indicates that the use of SMS as a policy instrument should be expanded. Internally displaced persons, Short message service, Field experiments, Colombia Number 4704 2010-12 C93 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-222&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-222.pdf application/pdf Mariana Blanco Juan F. Vargas

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preprint Los servicios médicos del seguro social y las igualas médicas privadas son sistemas de provisión de servicios prepagados de salud. El primero se organiza bajo la modalidad de producción estatal, con una gestión centralizada, cotizaciones obligatorias y sin posibilidad de elección del proveedor por parte del usuario. No obstante, el segundo se trata de entidades privadas, gestión descentralizada, regidas por contratos privados sin regulación estatal, y financiamiento voluntario por parte del cliente. Mediante la investigación se trata de determinar cómo los elementos que definen la estructura industrial, tales como propiedad, cantidad y tipo de proveedores condicionan la asignación de los recursos, cunatía y estructura de costos, productividad y eficiencia operativa, y cómo esto se traduce en términos del resultado final de la provisión del servicio. En el estudio se trata de evaluar la percepción que tienen los destinatarios del servicio sobre la calidad del mismo. También se intenta, a través de estadísticas limitadas, determinar la magnitud del mercado cubierta por ambos subsistemas y evaluar las motivaciones de los demandantes. Number 3004 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-305&pub_file_name=pubR-305.pdf application/pdf Isidoro Santana

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preprint Using household surveys from Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and El Salvador, this paper assesses the contribution of entrepreneurship to socioeconomic mobility and to understand the main variables associated with entrepreneurial propensity in selected Latin American countries. It is found that, at the aggregate regional level, income mobility is rather modest and that entrepreneurs do not outperform the rest of the population. However, entrepreneurs tend to perform as well as or better than non-entrepreneurs in countries where relative income mobility is moderate. In countries where relative income mobility is rather low, entrepreneurs tend to show less income mobility. Entrepreneurial propensity is rather modest, at 10 percent of the population. University graduates show the highest propensity in most of the countries studied, while women and young people were found to have the lowest entrepreneurial propensity. Number 4799 2012-07 L26 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36985865 application/pdf Hugo D. Kantis Juan S. Federico Luis A. Trajtenberg

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El modelo que se presenta en este trabajo genera implicaciones importantes sobre la manera en que la distribución de recursos entre los hijos varía entre los diversos grupos de ingresos. En este modelo, las familias pobres y de clase media tienden a canalizar sus recursos hacia algunos de los hijos, mientras que las familias ricas (y quizá también las familias muy pobres) tienden a distribuir los recursos de una manera más pareja. A consecuencia de ello, las familias pobres y de clase media tienden a generar más desigualdad que las familias más adineradas. Number 4151 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-389&pub_file_name=pubWP-389.pdf application/pdf Momi Dahan Alejandro Gaviria

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preprint (Available only in Spanish) This work attempts to extract lessons from the experience of the pension system reforms carried out in Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru. These reforms have introduced pensions based on individual funding, with private management under mandate, state regulation and guarantees, inspired by the Chilean reform. Given the excellent international availability of studies of the Chilean experience, this work concentrates on questions related to the design and implementation of new reforms. A word of caution is needed about the difficulties and limitations of comparing real well-established developments with incipient schemes, most of them barely expressed in regulations: legislation is frequently passed which is not followed through; and regulations sometimes represent ambiguous commitments not interpreted until later, and generate incentives that have met with diverse and variable responses over time. Number 4040 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-330&pub_file_name=pubWP-330.pdf application/pdf Ulpiano Ayala

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Presentamos una explicación alternativa de la caída del programa de convertibilidad de Argentina, basándonos en la vulnerabilidad del país a las paradas repentinas de los flujos de capitales. Las paradas repentinas por lo general van acompañadas de un incremento considerable del tipo de cambio real, lo que provoca el caos en países con pasivos considerablemente dolarizados y hace insostenibles posiciones fiscales y del sector privado por lo demás sostenibles. Subrayamos en particular que la variación necesaria de los precios relativos es mayor mientras más cerrada sea una economía en términos de su oferta de bienes transables. Al contrastar el desempeño de Argentina con el de otros países latinoamericanos que también estuvieron sometidos a la parada repentina provocada por la crisis de Rusia en 1998, identificamos indicadores claves de vulnerabilidad que distinguieron a Argentina de sus pares. También ofrecemos una explicación del torbellino político que se produjo a continuación de la parada repentina, basándonos en un argumento de guerra de desgaste y colapso fiscal. Este marco también aporta elementos para racionalizar la crisis bancaria que acompañó la caída de la convertibilidad. Number 4300 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-469&pub_file_name=pubWP-469.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Ernesto Talvi Guillermo A. Calvo

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preprint This paper investigates the inter-relation between the central government and the municipalities in Costa Rica. It examines episodes in which the central government has bailed out the local governments from their obligations. We employ empirical and descriptive methods to show how discretionary grants relate to the degree of fiscal discipline of the municipality to produce hidden bailouts. Political, demographic, and economic variables explain the allocation of these discretionary transfers. We illustrate the effects of the high concentration of decision-making of the central government on the fiscal performance of the municipalities. The municipalities play a limited role and its functioning largely depends upon the central government. We argue that the national administration would face a high political cost if it did not bail out the local government in several of the episodes studied. Using panel data from 1982-1997 on 81 cantones, we find that the fiscal effort of the local government is reduced by the presence of discretionary grants. The local governments finance local expenses with these discretionary transfers according to our empirical results. As expected from the centralization issue, political variables such as the affiliation of the local administration have significant effects on the resources received by the municipalities. Number 3168 2002-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-475&pub_file_name=pubR-475.pdf application/pdf Luis J. Hall Gilberto E. Arce Alexander Monge-Naranjo

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preprint This paper studies the effects of water sector privatization on consumers’ welfare in 46 municipalities in Colombia. First, the privatization process is described. Second, the paper evaluates the impact of privatization on access, price, and quality of water as well as health outcomes using differences-in-differences methodology with variation across time (before and after privatization) and between treatment and control groups (privatized and non-privatized municipalities) and controlling for household and municipality characteristics. The results show positive effects of privatization, in particular in urban areas. There are four main results: (i) Privatization in urban areas increases access, has positive effects on the quality measured as the need for treatment and the aspect of the water (e. g. , presence of particles in the water), and improves health outcomes, as well as improves the frequency of the service for the lower quintiles. (ii) Privatization increases the price of water in the lower quintiles, although these effects may be the result of the joint implementation of privatization and the elimination of cross subsidies. (iii) In privatized municipalities with better governmental technical capacities there are positive effects on access, prices and quality. (iv) the positive effects of privatization in rural areas on the frequency of the service and on health outcomes are outweighed by negative impacts on access and prices. These results suggest that the benefits found in urban areas should be expanded to rural areas, and that the service should be more targeted toward the poorest. Number 3230 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-525&pub_file_name=pubR-525.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Olivera Felipe Barrera

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preprint This paper documents the relationship between regional financial development and firm growth in the Peruvian manufacturing sector. In order to control for mutual causality between credit availability and firm growth, industry differences in financial dependence on external funds are exploited. The 1994 and 2008 rounds of the National Economic Census are used, permitting analysis at the firm level as well as the activity level. Results suggest a significant and positive effect of financial deepening on surviving firms` growth. However, this effect is smaller for micro enterprises, suggesting that the cost of external funding decreases with financial development mainly for large firms. The conclusions remain unchanged when entering and exiting firms are included. The paper further finds that credit expansion have encouraged not only firm growth but also firm entry. The results are robust using an alternative measure of financial dependence. Number IDB-WP-398 2013-06 D22 D53 G21 L11 L60 O14 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37857876 application/pdf Eduardo Moron Edgar Salgado Cristhian Seminario

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preprint En este trabajo se presenta un modelo de los efectos del VIH/SIDA en el crecimiento económico cuando la epidemia alcanza una etapa madura, por contraste con estudios anteriores concentrados en las etapas de expansión, como en el caso de los países africanos. Simulaciones en Honduras, epicentro de la epidemia en Centroamérica, muestran que es poco probable que el SIDA constituya una amenaza para el crecimiento económico, bien sea por los canales laborales o los de acumulación de capital; se calcula que la dolencia tendrá un efecto económico valorado entre 0. 007 y 0. 27 puntos porcentuales de crecimiento del PIB anualmente durante el período 2001-2010. Del mismo modo, un incremento del gasto por concepto de prevención, subsidios oficiales al tratamiento y acceso al tratamiento no constituye un riesgo para las perspectivas de crecimiento económico. Factores críticos que reducen el crecimiento económico en África (como por ejemplo, las reducciones del capital humano y las fluctuaciones relativas de las capacidades) no tienen la misma fortaleza en Honduras. Number 4568 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-630&pub_file_name=pubWP-630.pdf application/pdf José Cuesta

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preprint This paper makes three contributions to the existing literature. First, it provides descriptive evidence on gender differentials by education level in the US labor market over the last twenty years. Second, it uses the structural estimation of a search model of the labor market to identify and quantify the impact of employers' prejudice on labor market gender differentials. Third, it connects both the descriptive and the analytical findings to recent policy interventions in the US labor market and presents some policy experiments. The results show that prejudice may still have a role in explaining the evidence on gender differentials and there is at least one scenario where the possibility of the presence of prejudiced employers in the labor market has substantial effects. In particular, it is responsible for the reversal of the returns to schooling ranking in recent years and it may explain up to 44% of the gender wage gap of the top education group (Master and PhD) in 2005. Since prejudice is still important, policy interventions may be effective in attaining both efficiency and welfare gains. The paper is in favor of implementing an affirmative action policy because it is frequently able to close the gender gap without reducing overall welfare and because it is effective in targeting the group that should take center stage in the future debate about gender differentials: high-skilled, high-earners workers, who also have family responsibilities. Number 4819 2012-12 C51 J64 J7 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37334443 application/pdf Luca Flabbi lucaf@iadb.org Mauricio Tejada

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza la reacción de los sindicatos magisteriales y los gremios médicos a una serie de reformas del sector social en la región, incluidos la descentralización, mecanismos de pago a los prestadores de servicios y la introducción de mecanismos de evaluación del desempeño y de prestación privada de servicios. Combina la obra publicada sobre Economía y Politología para comprender las condiciones que moldean diversos patrones de comportamiento de los sindicatos y sus efectos en la aplicación de las políticas. El trabajo sugiere que las principales condiciones que influyen en el comportamiento de los sindicatos en el sector de la salud tienen que ver con la estructura del mercado (tamaño y nivel de competencia), debido a la participación combinada del sector privado y el público en el empleo. En la educación, donde el sector público es la principal fuente de empleo, los alineamientos políticos y las características organizacionales de las asociaciones magisteriales también desempeñan un papel importante para explicar el comportamiento de las organizaciones prestadoras de esos servicios. Se concluye, tomando en cuenta la naturaleza exógena de la mayoría de estas variables, presentando algunas sugerencias de políticas para alinear los objetivos de los sindicatos y los de los diseñadores de políticas mediante reformas de la normativa. Number 4276 2001-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-456&pub_file_name=pubWP-456.pdf application/pdf Daniel Maceira Maria Victoria Murillo

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este estudio es un análisis econométrico de datos sobre el uso de los servicios de cuidado infantil y participación de la fuerza laboral extraídos de una encuesta de 1. 720 hogares en 15 `favelas` o barrios pobres de Río de Janeiro. El análisis cubre los efectos que tiene el acceso a los servicios de cuidado infantil sobre la participación de la fuerza laboral femenina y la remuneración global. Number 4141 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-384&pub_file_name=pubWP-384.pdf application/pdf Ruthanne Deutsch

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, once the Mexican economy moved from financial liberalization to financial paralysis in 1995, liquidity constraints were relaxed for many large and financially healthy firms listed on the Mexican Securities Market. In the latter period, only those firms with a banking tie observe, on average, a dependence on cash stock to finance their investment projects. Econometric results are derived from dynamic panel data models estimated with the Generalized Method of Moments, where level and difference equations are combined into a system. The econometric evidence is consistent with the real growth of the Mexican economy during the years 1996-2000, which took place in a context of a collapsed banking system and the paralysis of other domestic forms of external financing. This paper also provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that firms’ membership in a network and firms’ linkage to a bank produced weaker financial constraints before the banking crisis. However, additional research is needed to formally test the importance of the different sources of financing since 1995; suppliers’ credit, foreign funding and internal capital markets are viable candidates for further study. Finally, the paper provides an intuitive rationalization of the Mexican paradox based on the business groups’ structure and their internal capital markets. It is argued that under a macroeconomic setting characterized by disarray in the domestic financial system, firms affiliated with business groups have more incentives to act coordinately rather than performing as autonomous profit centers. Consequently, in this new scenario, corporate headquarters are more interested in removing financial bottlenecks than in exerting market pressure on their divisions. In this environment, groups are capable of reallocating financial resources away from booming, export-oriented affiliates—the most likely to have access to foreign capital markets—and into cash-constrained firms within the same group. In other words, according to this theory, it is suggested that the presence of internal capital markets worked as a financial buffer that helped sustain economic growth. Number 3146 2002-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-451&pub_file_name=pubR-451.pdf application/pdf Gonzalo Castaneda

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31912019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper provides a summary of the work in seven papers of a Latin American Research Network project intended to identify the following information. The private and public determinants of child anthropometrics; The extent to which the private and public determinants interact and whether interactions suggest gross substitution or complementarities; and The extent to which the influence of the determinants of child anthropometrics vary by the age and gender of the child. Countries for which results are reported included in the project are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico and Nicaragua. Number 3191 2004-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-496&pub_file_name=pubR-496.pdf application/pdf Jere R. Behrman Emmanuel Skoufias

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este informe presenta el resultado de un estudio de la organización de los servicios de educación en Venezuela, en el marco de un estudio comparativo que comprende estudios de propósito similar en varios países de América Latina. El marco de referencia más general del estudio es el de la teoría económica de la organización, y su motivación principal está en la constatación de los severos problemas que enfrenta la provisión de servicios educativos en Venezuela. Se ha dividido en dos grandes secciones: la primera introduce los elementos contextuales indispensables para una adecuada comprensión de la forma particular que toma el estudio y del interés sustantivo que tiene. La segunda presenta el análisis de la organización económica de los servios de educación en tres sistemas educativos: el nacional, el estatal y uno privado. Number 3002 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-303&pub_file_name=pubR-303.pdf application/pdf Juan Carlos Navarro Rafael de la Cruz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1998) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. This paper shows that introducing news shocks in canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model may not reduce asset price volatility under plausible parameter assumptions. This is because, in general equilibrium, the asset cash flow itself may be affected by the introduction of new shocks. In addition, it is shown that neglecting to account for policy news shocks (e. g. , policy announcements) can potentially bias empirical estimates of the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices. Number 4740 2011-06 E32 F30 F40 G11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36246790 application/pdf Akito Matsumoto Pietro Cova Massimiliano Pisani Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:50012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint While public debt ratios in Latin America increased in 2009 amid the global financial crisis, they remain below levels reached following the Asian and Russian crises of the late 1990s. Moreover, debt composition has continued to shift towards -safer- debt (domestic debt with a higher prevalence of domestic currency liabilities). However, the current debt structure poses risks and policy challenges that should not be overlooked. Reviewing the latest available data on debt levels and composition for the region`s largest countries, this brief concludes that debt managers should avoid complacency in thinking that the region is completely redeemed from old sins. Particularly overlooked is that there does not yet exist in the region a large investor base for debt denominated in domestic currency at fixed nominal rates and reasonably long maturities. Debt management, Public debt, Living with debt Number 5001 2010-02 H63 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-PB-109&pub_file_name=pubIDB-PB-109.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se toma en cuenta las reformas actuales o propuestas del sistema financiero internacional, a la luz de la experiencia latinoamericana reciente. La mayoría de las propuestas se basan en uno de tres diagnósticos: flujos excesivos de capitales, flujos insuficientes de capitales y flujos de capitales excesivamente inestables. Aunque las teorías de flujos excesivos de capitales carecen de base empírica, esos puntos de vista subyacen tanto a las reformas actuales como las sugeridas. En una sección posterior se evalúan propuestas que tienen que ver con el apoyo financiero oficial, la participación del sector privado y normas y reglamentos financieros. El trabajo verifica las medidas destinadas a reducir el contagio y las crisis de liquidez, tales como un tribunal internacional de quiebras, y atribuye las dificultades financieras en América Latina en parte al pecado original, es decir, la incapacidad de los países de endeudarse a plazos largos en sus propias monedas. Number 4246 2000-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-440&pub_file_name=pubWP-440.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There is growing discontent with the conventional wisdom concerning economic policy. The unhappy fact seems to be that a stable macroeconomic environment may be necessary but not sufficient to coax the desired outcomes from liberalized financial systems. This paper reviews several promising extensions of the conventional model and discusses their policy implications. Number 4102 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-363&pub_file_name=pubWP-363.pdf application/pdf Michael P. Dooley

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30182019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Las finanzas del sector público colombiano mostraron déficits durante prácticamente todos los años del período 1980-1996. Este resultado no debe sorprender si se compara con la evolución fiscal de otros países de la región o del continente europeo en el mismo período, que también fue deficitaria. Number 3018 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-319&pub_file_name=pubR-319.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Olivera Julio Cesar Alonso Israel Fainboim Yaker

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) Uruguayan macroeconomic performance in the last 15 years has been satisfactory, taking as a reference the unemployment that had marked this country since the mid-1950s. Economic growth has been sustained since Uruguay emerged from its foreign exchange and financial crisis. This study presents a perception of unemployment in Uruguay. Number 4138 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-383&pub_file_name=pubWP-383.pdf application/pdf Julio de Brun Gaston J. Labadie

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents the results of the estimations of a quality of life (QoL) index focusing on three dimensions: individual factors, urban factors, and civil society. The study was mainly based on information collected through a survey applied in three districts of Lima: La Victoria, Los Olivos and Villa El Salvador. These districts are relatively similar in terms of income, although Villa El Salvador has a larger percentage of poor households. The results show that various indicators have different impacts on QoL. Two findings stand out. First, variables related to participation in civil society are statistically significant in all specifications used. Second, in La Victoria and Los Olivos, QoL is determined largely by indicators in the individual sphere, while the civil society sphere is more important in Villa El Salvador. These results are consistent with the collective action tradition of the Villa El Salvador district and with the market pattern of growth of Los Olivos. Number 3261 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-560&pub_file_name=pubR-560.pdf application/pdf Lorena Alcazar Raul Andrade

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews evidence on social mobility in Latin America. Several studies have used data sets that collect intergenerational socio economic information. The data, though limited, suggest that social mobility is low in the region, even when compared with low social mobility developed countries like the United States and United Kingdom, with high levels of immobility at the lower and upper tails of the income distribution. While Latin America has improved education mobility in recent decades, which may have translated into higher mobility for younger cohorts, the region still presents, except for Chile, lower education mobility than in developed countries. The paper also reviews studies on the main determinants of the region’s low levels of social mobility, including social exclusion, low access to higher education, and labor market discrimination. Social mobility, Latin America, Inequality, Social Exclusion, Education Number 4634 2009-08 D30 D60 I30 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-689&pub_file_name=pubWP-689.pdf application/pdf Viviane Azevedo Cesar Bouillon

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se sigue una metodología de diferencia en diferencia parecida a la que propusieron originalmente Rajan y Zingales (1998) para comprobar si el incumplimiento perjudica a las industrias más orientadas a la exportación. Se halló un respaldo considerable a esta hipótesis, pero, contrariamente a los hallazgos de estudios anteriores, nuestras estimaciones sugieren que el efecto de los incumplimientos es efímero. Number 4448 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-553&pub_file_name=pubWP-553.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Borensztein Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This project examines fiscal reforms in Brazil since the 1990s, particularly in taxation, budgeting, and fiscal federalism. While recentralizing fiscal authority and massively expanding the extractive capacity of the state, policymakers chose not to revamp an inefficient tax system that has nonetheless proven capable of generating high levels of revenue. In budgeting, the economic crises of the mid-1990s prompted the government to rein in subnational fiscal imbalances but discouraged policymakers from introducing major changes in the tax system. As the executive derives utility from fiscal stability and inflation control because of electoral incentives and credibility gains in international markets, reform initiatives can generate political benefits for incumbent politicians. The paper finally argues that the Achilles’ heel of the sustainability of the Fiscal Responsibility Law is its enforcement technology: the Tribunais de Contas. Fiscal responsibility laws, Fiscal federalism, Brazil, Political institutions Number 4655 2010-02 H3 H77 H83 H71 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-117&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-117.pdf application/pdf Marcus Melo Carlos Pereira Saulo Souza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines Colombia`s experience with an inflation-targeting monetary policy following the abandonment of exchange rate bands in 1999, and two episodes in 2003 and 2004 that deviated from this general behavior. In these episodes, the Central Bank intervened in the forex market on a relatively large scale in order to affect the trend of the exchange rate (managed floating). These episodes are examined to draw lessons and highlight the main challenges facing monetary and forex policy. The rationale for central bank intervention in the forex market in Colombia is then critically discussed. Finally, the paper presents several issues that appear in the debate on Colombian monetary and forex policy and provides an idea of the political context in which monetary policy decisions are made. Number 4425 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-539&pub_file_name=pubWP-539.pdf application/pdf Hernando Vargas H.

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines Brazil’s export discoveries in aircraft, cell phones and swine meat. All cases confirm the importance of efficiency gains and sunk costs in the expansion of exports and lead to the following conclusions: both economic policy and comparative advantage played important roles in the emergence of new export activities; economies of scale were a crucial determinant of competitiveness; and a well-known brand helped to overcome information asymmetries and facilitate entry into export markets. Exporters concentrated on design, marketing, R&D, and product assembly, making coordination with suppliers an important element in their strategies. Public policy additionally had a strong if sometimes unintended influence. While governments can foster discoveries, especially in the presence of market failures, policy alone cannot produce a successful exporter. Number 3256 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-551&pub_file_name=pubR-551.pdf application/pdf Armando Castelar Pinneiro Regis Bonelli

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El desempleo es uno de los fenómenos más temidos de nuestros tiempos. Pocos fenómenos económicos son reportados tan amplia y sistemáticamente por la prensa, y menos aún generan tal nivel de debate en la opinión pública. Hay razones para este nivel de interés. Los costos económicos de no utilizar una fracción del más importante factor de producción con que cuenta la sociedad se suman a los enormes costos que sufre el individuo desempleado en su auto-estima, motivación y competencias laborales. Number 4127 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-377&pub_file_name=pubWP-377.pdf application/pdf Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents microeconomic simulation techniques to examine what drives differences in inequality across countries. The simulation decomposes cross-country inequality differences into the importance of individual decisions, such as fertility, mating, labor force participation, and household structure, while at the same time including information on the importance of different income sources. The decomposition is applied to household survey data from 35 countries from 6 regions in the world. The empirical results provide insights into the transmission mechanisms through which inequality is generated. Number 4243 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-439&pub_file_name=pubWP-439.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Marianne Hilgert

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan las debilidades económicas de México y se ofrecen recomendaciones de las políticas correspondientes. Los problemas actuales incluyen vínculos y condiciones financieros internacionales débiles, un problema recurrente de restricción del crédito y subdesarrollo financiero, con bancos especialmente frágiles, una situación fiscal débil causada por la extrema vulnerabilidad a sacudidas internas y externas, y un problema latente de credibilidad de la política monetaria. Las recomendaciones de políticas que se presentan en este trabajo incluyen el mejoramiento de los vínculos financieros internacionales, la reducción de la exposición directa a las sacudidas externas, el aceleramiento de la profundización financiera interna y el fortalecimiento de los acuerdos existentes, la reducción de la exposición de las cuentas públicas a las sacudidas internas y externas, y la estabilización de las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio nominal de muy alta y muy baja frecuencia. Number 4210 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-420&pub_file_name=pubWP-420.pdf application/pdf Ricardo J. Caballero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper discusses coordination failures, their relevance to developing countries, and the circumstances under which they occur, arguing that that clusters can be seen as agglomerations of firms and organizations in related economic activities among which coordination failures are likely to arise. In other words, clusters provide opportunities for microeconomic interventions that promote coordination and collective action to improve productivity. Subsequently presented is a model of a small economy plagued by sector or cluster-specific coordination failures, which demonstrates that policy should foster cooperation in sectors where the economy already shows comparative advantage. In regard to innovation, general policies that aim to increase innovation across the board are likely to be inferior to policies that take a more selective approach by trying to induce the development of innovation clusters in areas of comparative advantage. The paper concludes with suggestions on how an understanding of coordination failures and clusters can form the basis for a set of effective microeconomic interventions for middle-income countries. Number 4431 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-544&pub_file_name=pubWP-544.pdf application/pdf Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The formality status of a job is the most widely used indicator of job quality in developing countries. However, a number of studies argue that, at least for some workers, the informality status may be driven by choice rather than exclusion. This paper uses job satisfaction data from three low-income countries (Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador) to assess whether informal jobs are less valued than formal jobs. The paper finds substantial differences in job satisfaction within different types of informal jobs. More importantly, the results suggest that across different definitions, informality does not yield the same ranking of job quality as self-reported measures of job satisfaction. This correspondence varies across countries, and it seems to be lower for less-skilled workers. Job Satisfaction, Informality, Quality of Employment, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala. Number 4603 2008-12 J21 J28 O17 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-654&pub_file_name=pubWP-654.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pages carmenpag@iadb.org Lucia Madrigal lmadrigal@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo se fundamenta en investigaciones anteriores para desarrollar una metodología que simplifique la identificación de las mejores opciones de políticas para paliar la pobreza en un país dado. Cuando se puede dividir una población en subgrupos según alguna característica fácilmente identificable, se puede entender el problema del alivio de la pobreza mediante un mecanismo dirigido a sectores específicos como una elección entre tres opciones: i) provocar un cambio marginal en el ingreso promedio de ciertos subgrupos; ii) modificar la distribución de ingresos dentro de subgrupos marginales y iii) generar un cambio marginal en las diferencias entre los subgrupos. Se aplican datos recientes de México. Number 4063 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-342&pub_file_name=pubWP-342.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The increased occurrence of extreme weather conditions leading to drought is a key development challenge. This paper studies how these extreme events interact with the political process at the local level using rich administrative data for drought declarations and mayoral elections in Brazil. While accounting for current and historical rainfall patterns, the paper finds that that: i) municipalities led by a mayor affiliated with the President’s party are more likely to receive formal drought declarations prior to the municipal election; and ii) receiving a drought declaration reinforces the electoral advantage of incumbent mayors running for reelection. These results are robust to the inclusion of a rich set of controls for municipal attributes. Number IDB-WP-455 2013-10 D72 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38204817 application/pdf Paulo Bastos pbastos@iadb.org Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between output collapses—defined defined as GDP falling substantially below trend—and total factor productivity (TFP), using a panel of 71 developed and developing countries during the period 1960-2003 to identify episodes of output collapse and estimate counterfactual post-collapse TFP trends. Collapses are concentrated in developing countries, especially African and Latin American, and were particularly widespread in the 1980s in Latin America. Overall, output collapses are systematically associated with long-lasting declines in TFP. The paper explores the conditions under which collapses are least or most damaging, as well as the type of shocks that make collapses more likely or severe, and additionally quantifies the welfare cost associated with output collapses. Growth, recessions, productivity, recovery Number 4610 2009-01 F43 O40 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-666&pub_file_name=pubWP-666.pdf application/pdf Juan Blyde juanbl@iadb.org Christian Daude Eduardo Fernandez-Arias

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents evidence on the impact of labor regulations on income inequality using two recently published databases on labor institutions and outcomes (Rama and Artecona, 2002; Botero, Djankov, La Porta, López-de-Silanes and Shleifer, 2003) and different cross-section and panel data analysis techniques for a sample of 121 countries over the 1970-2000 period. When we consider the techniques most likely to be robust, we find that: (i) de jure regulations do not improve income distribution; (ii) relative compliance with existing regulations improves income distribution; (iii) de facto regulations are weakly associated with improving income inequality. This result partly reflects the fact that regulations are endogenous and, more interestingly, different regulations have quite distinct effects. In particular, we find that any redistributive effect of labor regulations may come from trade union membership, public employment and mandated benefits (proxied by maternity leave). Number 4375 2004-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-514&pub_file_name=pubWP-514.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Rodrigo Valdés

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se calculan los efectos de las inversiones en capital fijo sobre los salarios relativos y el empleo de mano de obra calificada, y se analiza su dinámica. La hipótesis básica es que dichos efectos son positivos, debido bien sea a la manera en que el capital fijo y la calificación laboral se complementan, o a la ventaja de la calificación en la adopción de nuevas tecnologías. Se emplea un conjunto de datos de panel con una amplia gama de países, se hace una regresión del salario y el empleo relativos de los trabajadores calificados sobre inversiones desfasadas en equipos y otras variables pertinentes. Los resultados indican un efecto intenso y positivo de la inversión en equipos sobre la demanda relativa de mano de obra calificada. Number 4043 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-331&pub_file_name=pubWP-331.pdf application/pdf Karnit Flug Zvi Hercowitz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Why would bilateral donors intermediate aid through a multilateral and not extend aid directly? This paper suggests a trade-off: multiple bilateral donors for each recipient may imply coordination and strategic problems but intermediating through a multilateral may dilute individual donor objectives. The paper conducts traditional panel and truly bilateral regressions with bilateral-pair, fixed effects to model aid allocation decisions. The results confirm that politics is important for bilateral donors but also that aid fragmentation and strategic behavior affect aid allocation. Multilaterals solve strategic and coordination problems between donors and, while politics remains significant, there is some evidence for a dilution of this effect. Number 4500 2006-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-594&pub_file_name=pubWP-594.pdf application/pdf Matteo Bobba Andrew Powell

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Baumol (1967) showed that the rate of growth of an economy slows down if a sector has lower productivity than others and the demand between goods is inelastic. This paper points out that trade is equivalent to technological progress in the tradable sector. Therefore an open economy has higher income but lower growth than a closed economy. Moreover, the reallocation of activity from one country to another country can have a negative effect on welfare when there is country-specific learning by doing. Number 4014 1995-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-311&pub_file_name=pubWP-311.pdf application/pdf Antonio Spilimbergo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study analyzes social mobility and human capital accumulation among ethnic minorities in Mexican urban areas, exploring changes in educational attainment and labor market status and using panel data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MFxLS). The results indicate important ethnic differences in human capital accumulation patterns, especially in education, where non-indigenous individuals seem to accumulate human capital more rapidly than individuals of indigenous descent. Also, key socio-demographic characteristics linked to those patterns of human capital accumulation seem to differ between indigenous and non-indigenous individuals. In particular, for indigenous peoples in urban areas, human capital accumulation and wealth accumulation seem to work as substitutes rather than complements in the short run. Social mobility, human capital accumulation, education, ethnic minorities, urban areas, Mexico Number 4619 2008-12 D13 J15 O18 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-660&pub_file_name=pubWP-660.pdf application/pdf Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org Natalia Winder

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43792019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of state-owned banks and also presents some new results and a robustness analysis. The paper shows that state-owned banks located in developing countries have fiscal costs because they are characterized by lower returns than comparable privately owned banks (on the other hand, there is no evidence that state-owned banks located in industrial countries are less profitable than their private counterparts). We then point out that this evidence cannot be used as an argument against the existence of state-owned banks, as this low profitability might stem from state-owned banks’ activity on projects characterized by low private sector investment and high social return. While we find no evidence that the presence of state-owned banks promotes economic growth or financial development, we also find that the evidence that state-owned banks lead to lower growth and financial development is not as strong as previously thought. Number 4379 2004-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-517&pub_file_name=pubWP-517.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Alejandro Micco Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Un proyecto de investigación realizado por la Oficina del Economista Principal del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo ha hallado elementos de juicio iniciales pero convincentes de que las instituciones presupuestarias en América Latina tienen efectos significativos en los resultados fiscales. Los investigadores crearon un índice del grado de desarrollo de las instituciones presupuestarias que cuantifica la fortaleza de dichas instituciones. Los resultados sugieren que la solidez de esas instituciones incide en el desempeño fiscal. Number 4025 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-317&pub_file_name=pubWP-317.pdf application/pdf Rudolf Hommes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Conventional wisdom claims that fixed exchange rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible rates, but the recent experiences in Europe, the record of Sub-Saharan countries in the 1980s, and the history of stabilization attempts in Latin America cast empirical doubts on this wisdom. To explore this puzzle we present a standard intertemporal model with perfect capital mobility and price flexibility, in which fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority. Number 4004 1994-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-303&pub_file_name=pubWP-303.pdf application/pdf Aaron Tornell Andrés Velasco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the fiscal and energy implications of the surge in petroleum prices, estimating both direct and indirect effects. Since these economies are in an expansionary phase, it estimates a "latent" impact on GDP, which in turn leads to a latent loss in fiscal revenue of an average 0. 7% of GDP among countries. In contrast to this latent effect, the direct observed loss in tax collections from hydrocarbons is estimated at 0. 4% of GDP; again, there are differences among countries. Additionally, the explicit subsidies vary among countries but on average represent 1% of GDP. In summary, the combination of average direct and indirect fiscal effects among countries is estimated at 1. 4% of GDP for the 2003-06 period (rising to 2. 1% if latent effects are considered). Then, the paper considers how to intervene in the shaping of prices and the level of oil tax cushioning required in the various countries. The greater or lesser effect of the shock on local fuel costs was traced to varying difficulties in the electric and trasport sectors, which in turn impacted prices, taxes and subsidies. Finally, the paper discusses strategies based on possible mechanisms such as stabilization funds and makes general and country-specific suggestions. Number 4555 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-624&pub_file_name=pubWP-624_esp.pdf application/pdf Daniel Artana Fernando Navajas Marcelo Catena

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the effect of labor market opportunities on schoolingemployment decisions in 12 urban areas in Argentina over 12 years, emphasizing the recession/crisis years 1998-2002. Over “typical” years deteriorating job rates increase the probability of attending school and decrease the probability of combining work and school, particularly for boys; the probability of being in school for secondary school children was about 6 percent higher in 2002 than in 1998. These estimates account for the fact that a new Federal Education Law (FEL) in 1996 extended mandatory education to 10 years. Differences across regions in implementation and differences in exposure across cohorts induced by the timing of the Law reveal that children in provinces fully implementing the FEL were 3 percent more likely to be in school and 1.6 percent points less likely to be working. schooling decision, macroeconomic shocks, education policy Number 4602 2008-12 I21 J31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-653&pub_file_name=pubWP-653.pdf application/pdf Florencia Lopez-Boo florencial@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El Perú experimentó entre 1990 y 1995 uno de los procesos de estabilización, liberalización, desregulación y privatización más ambiciosos de la región, en el marco de un contexto de “extraordinary politics”, donde las capacidades de veto de diversos actores políticos tradicionales-–partidos políticos, sindicatos, etc. --habían quedado reducidas a su mínima expresión. El presente estudio analiza una serie de hipótesis respecto de qué factores viabilizaron o impidieron reformas en áreas tan sensibles como educación, salud y régimen de pensiones, y busca aislar lecciones de estas experiencias que sean útiles también para otros países. Las dificultades que enfrentaron los casos de pensiones y salud, así como el fracaso en educación, demuestran que, aún cuando un gobierno tiene el poder necesario para llevar a cabo las reformas, la viabilidad política de este tipo de acciones nunca es sencilla. Cabe señalar que este estudio focaliza su atención en la identificación de factores y estrategias que facilitaron o entorpecieron la viabilidad política de reformas institucionales, dejando de lado otros objetivos deseables en el campo político. Number 3046 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-348&pub_file_name=pubR-348.pdf application/pdf Gabriel Ortiz de Zevallos Hugo Eyzaguirre Rosa María Palacios Pierina Pollarolo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a panel of 50 countries for the period 1985-2003 to evaluate the vulnerability of public social spending (on education and health) to fiscal variables and public debt in Latin America as compared with the rest of the developing world. Social spending is significantly lower in Latin America (although it absorbs a larger proportion of primary spending) and is more vulnerable to higher debt interest payments but less affected by variations in other public spending. As in other developing countries, social spending declines as public debt increases, and more so if the debt is with multilateral banks. Unlike the rest of the world, when Latin American fails to meet its debt payments, social spending declines as a share of total public spending. Number 4505 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-597&pub_file_name=pubWP-597_esp.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews the state of sexual and reproductive health inseveral countries in Latin America and the Caribbean using the Demographic and Health Surveys to select countries according to their stage in the demographic transition. The results indicate advances in some areas, the most favorable being in countries with low fertility and among higher social classes. However, there are still important challenges, especially in countries whose transition has lagged. The evidence suggests that lack of information and access to reproductive services as well as social and cultural barriers, limits the exercise of a full reproductive life of women in high fertility countries and among underprivileged groups. Number 4571 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-632&pub_file_name=pubWP-632_esp.pdf application/pdf Carmen Elisa Flórez Victoria Eugenia Soto

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se procura entender por qué los actores políticos, las instituciones y las reformas legales han dejado sistemáticamente de generar cooperación en el proceso de diseño de políticas de Ecuador. Desde un punto de vista comparativo e histórico, Ecuador ha estado atrapado en un ciclo de políticas de mala calidad que no se ajustan a las circunstancias, que fluctúan según los caprichos políticos del momento y que tienden a favorecer a los grupos de cabildeo bien organizados en vez de procurar resultados sociales óptimos. En este trabajo se identifican dos rutas alternativas para el diseño de políticas que conducen a resultados precarios. En la primera, el programa del Ejecutivo pasa a un segundo plano detrás de las demandas clientelares de corto plazo de múltiples actores con veto en el Poder Legislativo, lo que contribuye al estancamiento o la rigidez de las políticas. En la segunda, el poder del Ejecutivo se delega en una burocracia decisiva y a menudo técnica, que está aislada de las presiones políticas, pero la falta de estabilidad institucional de tales cuerpos lleva a un patrón de inestabilidad de las políticas. Por último, en este trabajo se tratan los papeles formales e informales de los actores con veto de ultima instancia para detener o hacer retroceder políticas no deseadas. También se presentan dos estudios de casos específicos de políticas fiscales y monetarias, y se deducen implicaciones empíricas para mejorar la formación de acuerdos duraderos en el cuerpo legislativo y asegurar la aplicación y cumplimiento estable de las políticas a través de una burocracia técnica y un Poder Judicial independiente. Number 3227 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-523&pub_file_name=pubR-523.pdf application/pdf Andrés Mejía Acosta María Caridad Araujo Anibal Pérez-Liñán Sebastian Saiegh

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Recent literature on Latin American countries shows that private expenses as a share of the total expenditures in health tend to be higher the lower the nation`s level of economic development. This paper considers a discrete choice model of product differentiation, where consumer choice is based on a price-quality tradeoff. Physicians are involved in a dual-job holding structure, working as agents in the official sector while they maximize profits in a fragmented private sector. Number 4154 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-391&pub_file_name=pubWP-391.pdf application/pdf Daniel Maceira

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La arquitectura básica de la red de seguridad financiera mundial permite la existencia de u sistema de instituciones afines: un prestamista de última instancia, garantía de depósitos y regulación prudencial. En países cuyos sistemas bancarios adolecen de graves posiciones negativas de capital y de exceso de intermediación bancaria, tales como algunos mercados latinoamericanos, las redes de seguridad y los mecanismos detallados de su funcionamiento pueden no ser funcionales para reducir el exceso de riesgo a asumir. Ofrecen a los bancos sólidos incentivos para duplicar sus posibilidades de supervivencia. Así, las posiciones negativas de capital de los bancos quedan eliminadas con inyecciones de capital, liquidaciones y fusiones. Number 4057 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-339&pub_file_name=pubWP-339.pdf application/pdf Peter M. Garber

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world. While vulnerabilities remain and external shocks have been and remain critical, the region enjoys many strengths and has developed a growing arsenal of policy tools. What is the balance of vulnerabilities versus strengths? How can countries address the existing vulnerabilities? How can they perfect their policy tools and minimize the effect of external crises? Number 4767 2012-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36740185 application/pdf Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of China’s 2009-2010 fiscal stimulus package by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model of the world economy, showing that the effects on China’s economic activity are sizeable: absent fiscal stimulus China’s GDP would be 2.6 and 0.6 percentage points lower in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The effects are stronger under a US dollar peg because of the imported loose monetary policy stance from the United States. Higher Chinese aggregate demand stimulates higher (gross and net) imports from other regions, in particular from Japan and the rest of the world, and, only to a lesser extent, from the United States and the euro area. However, the overall GDP impact of the Chinese stimulus on the rest of the world is limited. These results warn that a fiscal policydriven increase in China’s domestic aggregate demand associated with a more flexible exchange rate regime have only a limited potential to contribute to an orderly resolution of global trade and financial imbalances. Fiscal stimulus, Financial crisis Number 4689 2010-10 E62 F41 F42 H30 H63 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-211&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-211.pdf application/pdf Pietro Cova Massimiliano Pisani Alessandro Rebucci

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys gender and ethnic wage gaps in 18 Latin American countries, decomposing differences using matching comparisons as a non-parametric alternative to the Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition. It is found that men earn 9-27 percent more than women, with high cross-country heterogeneity. The unexplained pay gap is higher among older, informal and self-employed workers and those in small firms. Ethnic wage differences are greater than gender differences, and educational attainment differentials play an important role in explaining the gap. Higher ethnic wage gaps are found among males, singleincome generators of households and full-time workers, and in rural areas. An important share of the ethnic wage gap is due to the scarcity of minorities in highpaid positions. gender, ethnicity, wage gaps, Latin America, matching Number 4640 2009-10 C14 D31 J16 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-109&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-109.pdf application/pdf Juan Pablo Atal Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org Natalia Winder

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In most of the postwar period Italy featured an abnormally high saving rate in comparison to that of most other industrialized countries. But this is no longer true. Under any definition, in the last decade the Italian saving rate has fallen below the average of the developed economies. Why was the Italian saving ratio comparatively high and why has its decline been so dramatic? In this paper we consider various potential answers to these questions. We particularly focus on the recent slowdown in productivity growth, the development of credit and insurance markets, and changes in the social security system. In the second part of the paper we use a series of repeated cross-sections from the Survey of Household Income and Wealth in order to determine whether the macroeconomic explanations for the decline in saving are consistent with microeconomic data. Number 3012 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-313&pub_file_name=pubR-313.pdf application/pdf Tullio Jappelli Marco Pagano

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this paper is to better understand peer popularity during adolescence and detect discrimination. High school students in Argentina are asked to select and rank 10 classmates with whom they would like to form a team to perform school activities, and this information is then used to construct a measure of popularity. The paper subsequently explores how student’s characteristics affect their popularity. It is found that physically attractive students and with high academic performance are highly ranked by their peers, but the former effect is only significant in mixed schools, suggesting that is primarily driven by mating. Other traits, such as skin color, nationality and parental socioeconomic background do not affect peer popularity, although ethnic origin and parental education are statistically significant in some specifications. The findings are informative about discrimination in the school system. In particular, it appears that the unequal treatment based on race, wealth and nationality found in other social environments in Argentina is not observed among adolescents attending school. Also analyzed is what to expect about the sorting of individuals into different groups and other aspects of grouping and networking in schools. The analysis suggests that a high degree of positive sorting should be expected in academic performance and beauty. Number 3238 2007-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-539&pub_file_name=pubR-539.pdf application/pdf Víctor Elías Lucas Ronconi Julio Elías

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a natural policy experiment to estimate how changes in the costs of engaging in criminal activity may influence adolescents' decisions in crime participation and school attendance. The study finds that, after an exogenous decrease in the severity of judicial punishment imposed on Colombian adolescents, crime rates in Colombian municipalities increased. This effect appears to be larger in municipalities with a higher proportion of adolescents between 14 and 15 years of age. The study provides suggestive evidence that one possible transmission channel for this effect is a decrease in the effort of the police force to capture teenage suspects. The study also finds that the probability that boys of this same age group attend school decreased following the change in the juvenile justice system. This effect is stronger for boys from homes where the heads of household are less educated. Number IDB-WP-413 2013-06 D19 I25 K14 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37854137 application/pdf Ana Maria Ibanez Catherine Rodriguez David Zarruk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues that considering the impact of geographical variables within Bolivia makes feasible a considerably richer analysis. The picture that emergesis occasionally not entirely consistent with the international evidence, but nonethelesspoints toward a systematic and significant impact of geography on development. Number 3085 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-385&pub_file_name=pubR-385.pdf application/pdf Jose Luis Evia Osvaldo Nina Miguel Urquiola Lykke Andersen Eduardo Antelo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43682019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Usando una muestra de 32 países desarrollados y en desarrollo, analizamos las características empíricas de las paradas repentinas en los flujos de capitales y la pertinencia de los efectos del balance general en la probabilidad de que ocurran las mismas. Hallamos que las fluctuaciones considerables del tipo de cambio real, acompañadas de paradas repentinas, son básicamente un fenómeno propio de los mercados emergentes. Las paradas repentinas parecen producirse en grupos y afectar por igual a países que se diferencian entre sí en muchos aspectos. Sin embargo, los países se parecen en que siguen siendo vulnerables a grandes fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio real. Éste puede ser el caso, porque los países se ven obligados a efectuar ajustes considerables en la absorción de bienes transables y porque la cuantía de los pasivos en dólares del sistema bancario (es decir, la dolarización de los pasivos internos) es considerable, o ambas cosas. La apertura, vista como una oferta considerable de bienes transables que reduce el apalancamiento sobre el déficit de cuenta corriente, conjuntamente con la dolarización de los pasivos internos, es un factor determinante clave de la probabilidad de que se produzcan paradas repentinas. La relación entre la apertura económica y la dolarización de los pasivos internos en la determinación de la probabilidad de que se produzca una parada repentina es altamente no lineal, lo que implica que la interacción del elevado apalancamiento de la cuenta corriente y una dolarización elevada puede resultar una combinación peligrosa. Number 4368 2004-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-509&pub_file_name=pubWP-509.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Luis Fernando Mejía

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The literature on the end of remarkable inflationary processes (Bresciani-Turroni, 1937; Sargent, 1986) calls our attention to one of the favorable aspects of hyperinflations: the fact that high inflation destroys old debts. Because of the central role fiscal deficits play in chronic inflation, the alleviation of the debt burden helps stabilization, and the fact that a large portion of government debt may disappear without the undesirable reputation costs of explicit debt repudiation is even better. In the Brazilian inflationary experience, most of this potentially favorable effect of high inflation on debt has been neutralized by indexation. In December 1994, officially recognized total federal domestic debt was 19. 9% of GDP. The fast growth of public debt in the first four years of stabilization has offset the benefits of the inflation acceleration, which occurred shortly before the onset of monetary reform in July, 1994. By December 1998, this figure was 44. 8% of GDP. Number 3121 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-424&pub_file_name=pubR-424.pdf application/pdf Afonso S. Bevilaqua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes gender and ethnic wage gaps in Guatemala for the period 2000-2006, applying a matching comparisons technique, finding pronounced wage gaps along both gender and ethnic dimensions, the latter being greater. Wage gaps in Guatemala are partially explained by differences in human capital characteristics, especially education, between indigenous and non-indigenous and males and females, which calls for equalization of educational opportunities for the population. However, wage gaps are greater than differences in education would predict, which suggests the need for interventions: information campaigns to generate consciousness regarding the need to provide more equal opportunities in labor markets according to each individual’s productivity. Number 4587 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-641&pub_file_name=pubWP-641.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Alberto Gonzales

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza si la propiedad de la banca (pública vs. privada, nacional vs. extranjera) guarda alguna relación con las prácticas crediticias de los bancos a lo largo del ciclo económico. Se halla que los bancos propiedad del Estado pueden desempeñar un útil papel de facilitación del crédito, debido a que sus prácticas crediticias son menos sensibles a las sacudidas macroeconómicas que las de los bancos privados. Se analiza si esta diferencia de conducta se debe a un objetivo explícito de estabilizar el crédito o a la presencia de gerentes perezosos de bancos propiedad del Estado; se hallan elementos en apoyo de la primera hipótesis. En el caso de bancos extranjeros, se determina que los resultados son menos claros y se sostiene que este hallazgo se corresponde con los modelos teóricos actuales. Number 4386 2004-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-520&pub_file_name=pubWP-520.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Financial dollarization in Latin America has been growing over time in spite of a major reduction in inflation and a shift toward central bank independence. After discussing the key stylized facts of dollarization and dedollarization in the region, we discuss the risks this process poses to the region. In particular, we explore the validity of concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy in a dollarized economy and about a loss of seigniorage revenue in such an economy. After concluding that to a large extent these concerns lack empirical support, we focus on the main reason for concern: increased vulnerability due to the dollarization of public and private debt. We emphasize the importance of precautionary/regulatory measures to limit the scope of mismatches originating from liability dollarization, and of developing financial instruments designed to hedge against currency risk. Moreover, we deal with the experience of policies directly aimed at deepening domestic financial markets in local currency assets and in gradually lengthening the maturity of these assets. We find that important lessons from the experience of dedollarization in Israel are of particular interest for Latin America. Number 4397 2005-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-526&pub_file_name=pubWP-526.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Leonardo Leiderman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study examines the impact of unions on wages and employment using data from Uruguay in a period when unions were banned (1973-1984), then legalized with tripartite bargaining (1984-1991) followed by industry-wide or firm-specific bargaining (1992-1997). The relationship between wages and employment shifted significantly across these periods as evidenced by recursive residuals, which show structural shifts in five of six industries, with the shifts coming at the same time as the regime changes. Wages are exogenous to employment before 1985, but not afterwards. Wage elasticity and the employment-output elasticity fell sharply after 1984. Unions significantly raised wages in 1985-1992, but afterwards the change in bargaining structure and increased openness led to concessions. Starting in 1985, workers in unionized industries were less likely to be laid off than workers in nonunion industries. Number 3093 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-392&pub_file_name=pubR-392.pdf application/pdf Adriana Cassoni Steven G. Allen Gaston J. Labadie

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper assesses the effects of total public debt (external and domestic) on social expenditure worldwide and in Latin America using an unbalanced panel of around 50 countries for the period 1985-2003. The most robust and important finding is that higher debt ratios do reduce social expenditures, as popular opinion holds. This effect comes mostly from the stock of debt and not from debt service payments, indicating that debt displaces social expenditures not so much because it raises the debt burden, but because it reduces the room (or the appetite) for further indebtedness. Loans from multilateral organizations like the World Bank or the Inter-American Development Bank do not seem to ameliorate the adverse consequences of debt on social expenditures. In accordance with popular wisdom, our results indicate that defaulting on debt obligations does help to increase social expenditures. Nonetheless, Latin America is different in some respects. The adverse effects of debt and debt-interest payments are significantly stronger in the region, which makes defaults more beneficial to social expenditures. While many of these conclusions are very heterodox, their main policy implication is not; there is no better way to protect social expenditures than to avoid overindebtedness, especially in Latin America. Number 4465 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-563&pub_file_name=pubWP-563.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Mauricio Olivera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El sexo del cabeza de familia se ha tratado a menudo como un factor determinante exógeno de la propiedad de la vivienda. En este trabajo se sostiene que hay varios factores determinantes de la propiedad de la vivienda que también inciden en el papel de cabeza de familia y que la incapacidad de dar cuenta de esta endogeneidad conduce a resultados incongruentes. En este trabajo se demuestra, empleando datos de nivel individual de Chile, Honduras y Nicaragua, que aunque en promedio las mujeres tienen menos probabilidades de ser propietarias de vivienda, es más probable que las mujeres que son cabeza de familia (solteras, separadas o divorciadas) lleguen a ser propietarias de vivienda. De modo que el análisis a nivel de hogar debe controlar la endogeneidad del cabeza de familia para poder analizar adecuadamente el efecto del sexo en la tenencia de la vivienda. Se emplea un modelo de probit bivariante para hallar pruebas de que las familias encabezadas por una mujer tienen una menor probabilidad de alcanzar la propiedad de la vivienda en los países latinoamericanos. Sin el control de endogeneidad, este resultado no estuvo presente en ocho países. Number 3253 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-547&pub_file_name=pubR-547.pdf application/pdf Nestor Gandelman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a transaction-costs framework to link the policymaking process (PMP) and the outer features of public policies in Mexico, a middle-income developing country. It shows how a highly secretive PMP, centralized around the presidency, fashioned nationalist policies that were stable, adaptable, coordinated and private-regarding for the urban-based corporatist pillars of the regime. When growth faltered in the late 1970s, however, this PMP was unable to adapt to economic volatility, although it remained dominant in an increasingly turbulent polity. The paper explains how unified government and corporatist control of the economy made a constitutionally weak president the envy of executives around the world, even at the cost of being unable to enact reforms with short-term costs for the corporatist pillars of the regime. The article also explains why democratization in the 1990s is giving rise to a less centralized and more open PMP that benefits larger shares of the population. As the separation of powers enshrined in the 1917 constitution materializes, policymaking is increasingly wedded to the status quo. On the one hand, divided government preserves a macroeconomic framework consistent with an open economy (such as fiscally sound policies and a floating exchange rate). On the other, checks and balances are helping old and new parties and interest groups to veto agreement on the raising of chronically low tax rates (at 10 percent of GDP) and on reforming nationalist policies that limit private sector investment in the state-controlled energy sector. Number 3204 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-512&pub_file_name=pubR-512.pdf application/pdf Fabrice Lehoucq Gabriel Negretto Francisco Aparicio Benito Nacif Allyson Benton

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the effects of increased shared computer access in secondary schools in Peru. Administrative data are used to identify, through propensity-score matching, two groups of schools with similar observable educational inputs but different intensity in computer access. Extensive primary data collected from the 202 matched schools are used to determine whether increased shared computer access at schools affects digital skills and academic achievement. Results suggest that small increases in shared computer access, one more computer per 40 students, can produce large increases in digital skills (0. 3 standard deviations). No effects are found on test scores in Math and Language. Number IDB-WP-476 2014-01 I21 I28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38351933 application/pdf German Bet Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org Pablo Ibarraran

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Policymaking in Peru over the last 25 years has been largely dominated by the Executive, and has been influenced by a variety of structural and political factors as well as by the personal ambitions of presidents and the public perception of crisis. With few exceptions, neither the Congress nor the other branches and levels of government have played effective roles in defining the national policy agenda, promoting inter-temporal cooperation and providing checks and balances on executive power. This is due in part to constitutional arrangements, in part to electoral outcomes, and in part to the historical weaknesses of political parties and other actors. Although this situation has been partially modified since 2001, it is not clear that the general pattern has changed. While certain arenas of decision-making have been reformed in recent years, in many spheres policymaking remains an arbitrary and unpredictable process, resulting in policies that are of low quality, poorly enforced and easily reversed. Although reforming aspects of the political and electoral systems could contribute to improving this outcome, the instability of the political regime per se has been a deterrent to longer-term institutional development. Number 3202 2006-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-511&pub_file_name=pubR-511.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Morón Cynthia Sanborn

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en inglés) La distribución desigual de riqueza en América Latina y el Caribe esta ligada a la distribución desigual de activos (humanos y físicos) y al acceso diferenciado a los mercados y servicios. Estas circunstancias, y las correspondientes tensiones sociales, deben ser entendidas en términos de fuerzas tradicionales de exlcusión; los sectores de la población que experimentan resultados desfavorables también pueden ser reconocidos por características como etnicidad, raza, género y discapacidaes físicas. Además de revisar la literatura en exclusión social, este trabajo revisa diferentes tópicos: (i) deprivación relativa (en tierra y vivienda, infraestructura física, salud e ingresos); (ii) temas de los mercados de trabajo, incluyendo acceso a los mercados en general, así como informalidad, segregación y discriminación; (iii) los puntos de transacción de representación política, protección social y violencia; y (iv) áreas en las que el análisis aun es débil y avenidas para mayor investigación en la región. Number 4546 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-619&pub_file_name=pubWP-619.pdf application/pdf Nestor Gandelman Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Laura Ripani

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Medium Term Fiscal Frameworks (MTFs) have become one of the most popular reforms to the budgetary process in Latin America during the last decade, and introducing MTFs seemed to be the magic solution for most fiscal ailments. Nonetheless, there has been no comprehensive evaluation of their impact. This document discusses the normative merits of using MTFs, provides a characterization of the different types of MTF, and describes their development in the Latin American region based on extensive field work. As a first approximation for understanding how they are working, this document explores in detail the cases of Argentina, Colombia and Peru. While an unambiguous diagnosis is not possible, this document lays the groundwork for progress toward comprehensive impact evaluations and, eventually, to the consolidation of MTFs in the region. Latin America, Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks, Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks, Budget Process, Fiscal Outcomes, Fiscal Reforms Number 4659 2010-03 H61 H68 H00 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-160&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-160.pdf application/pdf Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Gabriel Filc

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30332019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The dynamic commons problem arises when different groups in society engage in intense redistributive activity as a result of an export boom. This paper analyzes the role that institutions play in ameliorating that problem in the case of coffee and oil in Colombia. The paper presents a model that rationalizes the existence of a federation of coffee producers that effectively reduces inefficient redistribution to other sectors of society. According to the empirical evidence we find that domestic coffee prices have been unaffected by political factors, so that in practice appropriation of coffee rents does not depend on electoral and partisan cycles. The case of oil is substantially different. Here, rents are claimed by a large number of divided agents. According to the model, one feasible solution to the dynamic commons problem when the fiscal structure is not unitary is to impose a set of rules that restrict appropriations by different groups during windfalls. The major cost of this solution, embodied in the Oil Stabilization Fund, is the total loss of flexibility. Number 3033 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-335&pub_file_name=pubR-335.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Cardenas Zeinab Partow

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes reforms and counter-reforms in Bolivia in recent decades and their effects on the policymaking process (PMP) and productivity. Bolivia’s PMP has shifted from a formal representative democracy to a “participative and direct type of democracy” where street protest and other non-conventional forms of political participation have become dominant. While reforms have increased productivity, they have failed to secure the political support necessary to assure long-term sustainability. In contrast, counter-reforms have so far enjoyed extensive political support, but productivity has stagnated since this process started, with declining economic growth and job creation—developments likely to undermine support for the counter-reform process. The document stresses the need to rebuild a consensus around a PMP capable of increasing productivity and employment creation while restoring social cohesion. Bolivia, Productivity, Policy Making Process, Reform, Counter-Reform Number 4646 2009-11 A10 E61 E65 O21 O47 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-103&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-103.pdf application/pdf Luis Carlos Jemio Fernando Candia Jose Luis Evia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The literature on aid effectiveness has focused more on recipient policies than the determinants of aid allocation yet a consistent result is that political allies obtain more aid from donors than non-allies. This paper shows that aid allocated to political allies is ineffective for growth, whereas aid extended to countries that are not allies is highly effective. The result appears to be robust across different specifications and estimation techniques. In particular, new methods are employed to control for endogeneity. The paper suggests that aid allocation should be scrutinized carefully to make aid as effective as possible. Number 4511 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-601&pub_file_name=pubWP-601.pdf application/pdf Matteo Bobba Andrew Powell

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paperuses a panel dataset on industrial employment and trade for 9 Latin American countries for which liability dollarization data at the industrial level is available. It tests whether real exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on employment, and analyze whether the impact varies with the degree of trade openness and liability dollarization. Econometric evidence supports the view that real exchange rate depreciations can impact employment growth positively, but this effect is reversed as liability dollarization increases. In industries with high liability dollarization, the overall impact of a real exchange rate depreciation can be negative. Number 4478 2006-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-575&pub_file_name=pubWP-575.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org José Manuel Montero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este documento se analiza el vínculo entre lo que la gente dice que prefiere hacer y lo que efectivamente hace. Se vinculan los resultados de los experimentos sobre la confianza y la naturaleza social en seis capitales latinoamericanas con las respuestas obtenidas de encuestas representativas entre los mismos participantes individuales. Los individuos que están más de acuerdo con un conjunto de afirmaciones de naturaleza social están más dispuestos a contribuir y colaborar con el bienestar social de la comunidad, y lo que la gente dice está vinculado con lo que hace. Esto sostiene la idea de que la inclusión de controles subjetivos en el lado izquierdo de una especificación empírica efectivamente contiene información útil. Number 4576 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-634&pub_file_name=pubWP-634.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Juan Camilo Cardenas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Las reformas llevadas a cabo en Chile a partir de mediados de los setenta tendientes a reducir el tamaño del Estado y a hacer más eficiente y efectivo su funcionamiento han sido, en general, evaluadas positivamente. Ellas contemplaron, entre otras medidas, reducciones de personal del sector público, ajustes de planilla, consolidación y re definición de los roles de las diversas instituciones públicas de modo de abordar los problemas de incentivos que las afectan. Ello respondió a que en Chile, en gran medida los problemas atribuidos al funcionamiento del Estado tenían que ver con su gran tamaño. Aspectos tales como excesiva centralización regional y de toma de decisiones, falta de instancias de control, corrupción, tramitación excesiva, incertidumbre sobre el marco regulatorio o de su grado de aplicabilidad, falta de claridad en las competencias de las agencias o superimposición de las mismas y falta de capacidad técnica son parte de una institucionalidad que arroja dudas sobre el funcionamiento adecuado del Sector Público y ellas fueron consideradas al momento de evaluar y realizar las reformas. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar y comprender en qué medida Chile ha conciliado la flexibilidad y la credibilidad en sus instituciones y cómo el diseño y contexto en el que se desenvuelven las mismas contribuyó al propósito deseado. El que dentro de Chile ciertas instituciones tengan distintos grados de autonomía permite analizar variables de contexto específicas incluso en un contexto nacional. Específicamente, analizamos los determinantes de la autonomía real de tres instituciones chilenas para comprender en qué medida tal autonomía afecta la ejecución de la política gubernamental. Estas instituciones son la Fiscalía Nacional Económica (antimonopolios), la Superintendencia de Servicios Sanitarios, y el Banco Central. Number 3041 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-344&pub_file_name=pubR-344.pdf application/pdf Ricardo D. Paredes Molina Ricardo Sanhueza Leonardo Letelier José Miguel Sánchez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper provides an interpretation of the evolution of Spanish private and national savings over the period 1960-1995. During these 35 years private and national saving rates oscillated widely from a very high level in the 1960s to historical minima in the early and mid-1980s to a strong recovery in the more recent years. At the same time, Spain transformed itself from an autarkic, underdeveloped and dictatorial country into an advanced, open economy with a fully democratic political life. First, we show that the apparent long-run reduction in Spanish saving rates is mostly due to a change in relative prices and to the choice of what, in our view, is the incorrect deflator. When Spanish real private savings are measured by using the deflator for the price of capital they appear to behave as a stationary, albeit highly volatile, time series relative to private disposable income. We find that a stable "saving function" can be derived from first principles and estimated using annual macroeconomic data. We adopt a traditional model of intertemporal optimization by a representative agent, facing a complete set of borrowing/lending opportunities and an exogenous income process. We use a "habit formation" utility function, to explain the crucial feature of the data, i. e. , the strong and positive impact that innovations in the growth rate of income (either national or private) have on saving (either national or private). Number 3027 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-328&pub_file_name=pubR-328.pdf application/pdf Michele Boldrin Juan Manuel Martin Prieto

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Latin American and Caribbean countries are the most urban in the developing world, enjoy very high homeownership rates, and boast high average family incomes by developing world standards. However, many of the region`s city inhabitants are still poorly housed. This issue of IDEA draws from the 2012 edition of the IDB`s flagship publication titled Room for Development: Housing Markets in Latin America and the Caribbean to examine the magnitude of the problem and review policy options for dealing with it. Number 4754 2011-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36601285 application/pdf Rita Funaro

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper investigates the political economy of fiscal reform activism in Argentina since the late 1980s. Between 1988 and 2008, tax legislation was changed 83 times, fiscal federal rules 14 times, and budgetary institutions sixteen times. Tax and budgetary reforms moved from centralizing revenue sources and spending authority in the federal government to mild decentralization lately. Fiscal federal rules combined centralization of revenues and management in the federal government with short-term compensations for the provinces. This paper contends that reform activism can be explained by the recurrence of economic and policy shocks while reform patterns may be accounted for as consequences of the decreasing political integration of national parties in a polity whose decisionmaking rules encourage the formation of oversized coalitions. The decrease in political integration weakened the national party leaderships’ ability to coordinate intergovernmental bargaining, and strengthened the local bosses and factions needed to form oversized coalitions. Public finance, Budget, Taxes, Federalism, Intergovernmental relations Number 4666 2010-05 H77 H61 H20 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-175&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-175.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Bonvecchi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a survey of clients, doctors and nurses in thirty municipal hospitals, this study examines the scope and determinants of corruption in Bolivia`s public health sector. The authors find that `voice` mechanisms such as citizen activism and oversight are significant in exposing bribery and deterring the overpricing of medical supplies. The existence of `exit` options, such as recourse to private health service providers, additionally serves to deter corruption. Hierarchical controls, such as administrative regulations and procedures, seem to have little impact on hospital corruption, though further research is needed to verify this finding. Number 3081 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-381&pub_file_name=pubR-381.pdf application/pdf George Gray-Molina Ernesto Perez de Rada Ernesto Yáñez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging market economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level characteristics account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds two asymmetries. The first is in line the sovereign ceiling “lite” hypothesis which states that the transfer of risk from the sovereign to the private sector is less than 1 to 1. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding. Number 4513 2007-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-602&pub_file_name=pubWP-602.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Patricio Valenzuela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper takes advantage of a recent large firm-level dataset to compare labor indicators of privatized, private, and public firms around the world, particularly wages, benefits, labor composition, education and training, unionization, and quality of management. While labor productivity increases after privatization, the ratio of permanent workers to temporary workers also increases. Convergence depends to some degree on the quality of the institutions, namely, the rule of law. Not only is this true for the ratio of permanent workers to temporary workers, but also for education of the workforce, and for the manager’s years of experience. On the other hand, the rule of law appears to be less important in the case of labor productivity and training. Number 4524 2007-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-608&pub_file_name=pubWP-608.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Gianmarco León

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41912019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se propone que no hay país en América Latina del que se pueda afirmar que la desigualdad del ingreso se haya reducido durante la década del 90. Este hecho se documenta en los 15 países en los cuales se dispone de encuestas de hogares similares que cubren a la mayor parte de la población. Se aprecian verdaderos cambios de la distribución que ni son producto de diferencias en las características de los datos ni de la manera en que se manejan los mismos. En 10 de esos países la falta de avance es ocasionada por aumentos de la desigualdad entre los primeros nueve deciles. En los cinco países restantes, el motivo es una mayor concentración en el 10% más adinerado de la población. También se observa que, en siete de los países, la dinámica entre los individuos con 14 años o más de escolaridad es el motivo principal de que no haya mejorado la distribución del ingreso durante los años 90. No obstante, la falta de mejoramiento en la distribución del ingreso no es exclusiva de la región. Se compara a América Latina internacionalmente y se descubre que, con escasas excepciones, la desigualdad ha aumentado menos en esta región que en países desarrollados y en Europa Oriental. Number 4191 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-410&pub_file_name=pubWP-410.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Marianne Hilgert

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Since the beginning of the 1980s, the world has undergone a major shift in thinking about the appropriate economic role of the state. Privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been at the heart of this change. The track record on privatization, however, is still very limited. This holds true for Argentina, which undertook an extensive privatization effort. But has it improved the welfare of Argentine workers and consumers? How has the transfer of local water and sewerage firms to private hands impacted health indicators such as child mortality? Given the massive layoffs involved, have post-privatization gains in profitability come at the expense of workers? Analyzing data for both financial and non-financial firms, this paper answers these and other questions to set the record straight on privatization in Argentina. Number 3148 2003-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-454&pub_file_name=pubR-454.pdf application/pdf Federico Sturzenegger Ernesto Schargrodsky Sebastian Galiani Paul Gertler

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presenta primero una perspectiva histórica de la regulación, los pasos iniciales del sector industrial colombiano y la manera en que creció. El entorno no ha sido conducente a la aplicación de una legislación que trate de regular los monopolios u oligopolios, y mucho menos regular el poder económico. El relato es seguido por el tratamiento del sector privado moderno. Number 4023 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-316&pub_file_name=pubWP-316.pdf application/pdf Rudolf Hommes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Algunos analistas consideran a China como la única economía latinoamericana que se puede describir como bien encaminada o en desarrollo. En cierto sentido, el perdurable éxito de Chile y su comprobado aislamiento del efecto tequila se deben a su elevado nivel de ahorro interno. ¿A qué se debe que el nivel de ahorro en Chile sea tan elevado? ¿Qué políticas claves se han aplicado? ¿Tienen algo que ver las reformas estructurales y la apertura de finales de los años 70 y los 80? Se procura desenredar empíricamente algunos de los rompecabezas con datos históricos que cubran el período de 1960 a 1995. Number 4031 1996-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-322&pub_file_name=pubWP-322.pdf application/pdf Felipe G. Morandé

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses newly available data to describe the distribution of crime victimization and other criminal activities (including drug trafficking and corruption) around the world. The paper then documents a negative (positive) correlation between measures of criminal activity and happiness and measures of positive (negative) emotions. The paper also studies the correlation between ideological beliefs and criminal activity, finding that crime victims are more likely to believe that hard work does not pay and that the government should increase the amount of redistribution to the poor. Happiness, crime, beliefs, income distribution Number 4605 2009-01 C83 I39 K42 Y80 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-662&pub_file_name=pubWP-662.pdf application/pdf Rafael Di Tella Robert MacCulloch Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines how social exclusion contributes to violence in communities throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Residents in socially excluded communities cannot depend on those institutions designed to protect them, and violence becomes an instrument to achieve certain outcomes, such as justice, security, and economic gain. When conventional methods of obtaining and working for increased social status, higher income, and wider influence are limited, as they often are in marginalized areas, some feel compelled to resort to violent acts. This paper discusses how social exclusion and violence interact in a vicious circle that leaves the socially excluded in a very hostile social environment where the borders between legal and illegal, legitimate and illegitimate are often fuzzy and uncertain. In this environment violence is used by a minority to acquire justice, security, authority and economic gain. The use of violence by this minority, however, affect the lives of the majority of excluded people that do not resort to violence. As youths are particularly vulnerable to this issue, this paper also examines the relationship between violence and the plight of Latin American youth gangs and street children. Number 4534 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-613&pub_file_name=pubWP-613.pdf application/pdf Heather Berkman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study presents the case of Ecuador. The report describes the main actors (formal and informal) involved in the budget-making process, and presents evidence regarding the main political and economic determinants of fiscal performance. It also discusses whether different political and institutional arrangements governing the budget process affect incentives for the composition of the budget. Number 2000 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-101&pub_file_name=pubCSI-101.pdf application/pdf Andrés Mejía Acosta María Caridad Araujo Vicente Albornoz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se trata el desempeño económico de América Latina durante la última década, y se le presta atención especial al crecimiento y al sector financiero. En particular, se muestra que factores externos tales como las tasas de interés en EE. UU. y el ciclo económico desempeñan un papel clave en los ingresos de capitales, la inversión y el crecimiento. Como consecuencia de ello, el crecimiento económico de la región tiende a ser frágil y exhibe un elevado grado de movimiento conjunto, es decir, una elevada correlación de la producción entre los países. Esta última característica exacerba la fragilidad, porque hay poco espacio para el aseguramiento mutuo dentro de América Latina, en caso de que un país sufra una sacudida grave, y el financiamiento durante los cambios desfavorables de la coyuntura debe provenir principalmente de fuera de la región. Number 4278 2001-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-457&pub_file_name=pubWP-457.pdf application/pdf Carmen Reinhart Guillermo A. Calvo Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper raises fundamental questions about how banks in Latin America ought to be supervised. The concentration of wealth holders in Latin America and the equity markets` resulting illiquidity permit investors who control banks to subvert the intent of capital requirements, even when the bank itself is subject to rigorous accounting standards. A number of policy implications follow from the analysis. Three of policy recommendations derived from this analysis can be successfully implemented in the short run. Latin American supervisors should focus on: improving the markets that already work in Latin America, which currently are markets for bank liabilities; severely limiting public safety nets for bank liabilities so that risky banks face a high price for raising liabilities; and encouraging macroeconomic policies to play a much more important role in restraining bank risk in Latin America than in the industrial countries. Number 4050 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-336&pub_file_name=pubWP-336.pdf application/pdf Liliana Rojas-Suárez Steven R. Weisbrod

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper considers whether institutional factors, in this instance electoral systems and procedures, affect Latin American countries` fiscal performance as measured by the size of the public sector, fiscal deficits, the size of the public debt, and the degree of procyclality of fiscal policy. The authors find that electoral systems characterized by large district magnitude and high political fragmentation have larger governments, larger deficits, and more procyclical fiscal policies. Transparent and hierarchical budget procedures, on the other hand, lead to lower deficits and levels of debt. Number 4110 1998-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-367&pub_file_name=pubWP-367.pdf application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein Ernesto Talvi Alejandro Grisanti

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presenta un modelo de ciclo político presupuestario racional para una economía abierta en el que las devaluaciones se demoran en el período preelectoral, a fin de aumentar las probabilidades electorales del partido oficialista. Los modelos de ciclos políticos anteriores, al concentrarse en economías cerradas, habían pasado por alto la influencia de las elecciones en el comportamiento de los tipos de cambio. Se introduce la incertidumbre de los electores en dos dimensiones distintas. No sólo hay incertidumbre entre los votantes en cuanto a la competencia de quien ocupa el cargo, sino que tampoco conocen su grado de oportunismo. . Number 4165 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-396&pub_file_name=pubWP-396.pdf application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein Jorge M. Streb

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes political economy determinants of exchange rate policy in Brazil over the past thirty years. Two complementary methodologies are used. The first consists of investigating the exchange rate policy historical context over this period. Thus, part of the paper is dedicated to an historical account of the political economy of the exchange rate policy in Brazil from 1964 to 1997. The driving force affecting exchange rate policy was the tradeoff between the positive effect of a depreciated exchange rate on the balance of payments and its negative effect on inflation. The exchange rate policy resulting from this tradeoff depended on the political environment. An analytical framework is sketched to interpret the real exchange rate policy history, and then it is extended to encompass short-run election cycles. The second methodology is statistical. A Markov Switching Model is used to characterize statistically the exchange rate regimes, defined as valued or devalued real exchange rates, and the influence of political economy variables on regime changes. The results support the interpretation pursued in the analytical part. We found statistical evidence that the probability of an appreciated exchange rate is higher under democracy than under dictatorship. Furthermore, according to our statistical results there is also an election cycle: the probability of having an appreciated exchange rate is higher in the months preceding elections while the probability of having a depreciated exchange rate is higher in the months succeeding elections. Number 3065 1999-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-367&pub_file_name=pubR-367.pdf application/pdf Marco Bonomo Cristina Terra

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo complementa estudios anteriores al proponer que el bajo nivel de ahorro en América Latina se puede vincular con la limitada confianza de hogares y empresas en las instituciones financieras nacionales. Estudios anteriores han comprobado la relación entre el ahorro privado y los mercados financieros, bien sea empleando una medida de profundidad financiera o una medida de limitantes del endeudamiento. Este trabajo presenta una perspectiva alternativa al proponer que el nivel de ahorro privado guarda una correlación positiva con la confianza del sector privado en la solidez del sistema financiero, y que este concepto se puede calcular aproximadamente a partir de la proporción de demanda empresarial a activos líquidos de la banca. Los países latinoamericanos tienen niveles de ahorro más bajos que otros países en desarrollo y que la mayoría de los países industrializados. También exhiben los mayores niveles de depósitos empresariales a depósitos familiares entre los tres grupos de países tomados en cuenta en este trabajo. Además, la proporción de depósitos empresariales a depósitos familiares guarda una estrecha correlación con otros indicadores de la fragilidad del sistema bancario. Number 4059 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-340&pub_file_name=pubWP-340.pdf application/pdf Liliana Rojas-Suárez Steven R. Weisbrod

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Documento disponible en Inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza la evolución de la brecha salarial entre los sexos en Chile durante el período de 1992 a 2003, empleándose el enfoque de descomposición desarrollado en Ñopo (2004). Este enfoque, en el que se descompone la brecha salarial en cuatro elementos aditivos, se hace hincapié en la necesidad de establecer comparaciones dentro del apoyo común a las distribuciones de características observables de individuos. Además, también permite un análisis de la distribución de diferencias no explicadas en los salarios (no sólo el promedio). Los resultados sugieren que, aparte del elevado nivel de logro académico entre las mujeres, hay diferencias salariales notables entre los sexos en Chile que favorecen a los hombres. Estas diferencias salariales no explicadas, que oscilan alrededor de 25% del salario promedio de las mujeres, no mostraron tendencias claras durante el período del análisis. Las brechas salariales son mayores en los percentiles más altos de la distribución salarial, entre aquellos con mayor nivel de logro académico, entre los directores y entre los trabajadores a medio tiempo. La técnica también sirve para detectar cierta evidencia de un efecto de techo de vidrio de los mercados laborales de Chile, de modo que para ciertas ocupaciones y combinaciones particulares de características observables, hay más hombres que mujeres que reciben un salario elevado. Number 4464 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-562&pub_file_name=pubWP-562.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the link between compulsory voting and income distribution using a cross-section of countries around the world. Our empirical cross-country analysis for 91 countries during the period 1960-2000 shows that compulsory voting, when enforced strictly, improves income distribution, as measured by the Gini coefficient and the bottom income quintiles of the population. Our findings are robust to changes and additions to our benchmark specification. Since poorer countries suffer from relatively greater income inequality, it might make sense to promote such voting schemes in developing regions such as Latin America. This proposal assumes that bureaucratic costs related with design and implementation are not excessive. Number 4413 2005-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-533&pub_file_name=pubWP-533.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mauricio Olivera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Following Hsieh and Klenow (2009), this paper studies productivity dispersions in Colombian industrial establishments using the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey (AMS) from 1982 to 1998. The United States is used as a benchmark to estimate the reallocation of capital and labor to equalize marginal products across plants in Colombia. Gains are found in manufacturing Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of approximately 3-8 percent and TPF is positively correlated with exporting status, age, size, and location in the central region of the country. There is also suggestive evidence that opening the economy in 1991 is associated with an increase in plant productivity levels for firms that export goods. The 1990 reform that reduced dismissal costs is associated with an increase in productivity, while the reform that increased labor costs in 1993 is associated with a decrease in plants’ productivity. Further work is needed to establish a causal relation between productivity and policy changes. Total Factor Productivity, Industry, Reallocating factors of production, Colombia Number 4654 2010-02 D24 O47 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-123&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-123.pdf application/pdf Adriana Camacho Emily Conover

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Unequal income distribution in Latin America and the Caribbean is linked to unequal distributions of (human and physical) assets and differential access to markets and services. These circumstances, and the accompanying social tensions, need to be understood in terms of traditional fragmenting forces; the sectors of the population who experience unfavorable outcomes are also recognized by characteristics such as ethnicity, race, gender and physical disability. In addition to reviewing the general literature on social exclusion, this paper surveys several more specific topics: i) relative deprivation (in land and housing, physical infrastructure, health and income); ii) labor market issues, including access to labor markets in general, as well as informality, segregation and discrimination; iii) the transaction points of political representation, social protection and violence; and iv) areas where analysis remains weak and avenues for further research in the region. Number 4545 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-619&pub_file_name=pubWP-619.pdf application/pdf Nestor Gandelman Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Laura Ripani

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this paper is to study the Chilean labor market and determine the presence or absence of gender discrimination. In order to transcend the limitations of earlier works, an experimental design is used, the first of its kind in Chile. This study also allows socioeconomic discrimination associated with names and places of residence to be addressed. The study consists of sending fictitious Curriculum Vitae for real job vacancies published weekly in the Santiago newspaper El Mercurio. A range of strictly equivalent CVs in terms of qualifications and employment experience of applicants are sent out, varying only in gender, name and surname, and place of residence. The results show no significant differences in callback rates across groups, in contrast with what is found in other international studies. Number 3242 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-541&pub_file_name=pubR-541.pdf application/pdf David Bravo Claudia Sanhueza Sergio Urzua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Over the last 20 years, Mexico redefined the role of the state in its economy through an ambitious program to liberalize trade, promote efficiency and reduce the size and scope of the state-owned sector. In Mexico, privatization led to a significant improvement in firm performance, as profitability increased 24 percentage points and converged to levels similar to those of private firms. From this increase, at most 5 percent can be attributed to higher prices and 31 percent to transfers from workers, with the remaining 64 percent representing productivity gains. There is evidence that privatization provides other social benefits, as greater access to services, which usually follows privatization, leads to welfare gains for the poorest consumers that outweigh any increase in prices. Moreover, an often-overlooked aspect of privatization is its fiscal impact, whereby the proceeds from the sale are augmented by reduced subsidies and increased taxes and can help pay off debt or finance social spending. The Mexican privatization program can provide a valuable guide to privatization dos and don’ts: First, the privatization process must be carefully designed and run in a transparent way. Special requirements such as bans on foreign direct investment or cash-only payments lead to substantial price discounts for firms sold, while simplicity breeds competition and leads to higher prices. A transparent program can also help quell the tendency of politicians to favor their friends by tweaking the rules of the game. Second, restructuring firms prior to privatization is counterproductive in raising net sale prices and should be avoided. Governments spend substantial resources on politically motivated investment or efficiency programs that are not valued by bidders and which can rarely be justified on the social ground on which they are sold. Additionally, restructuring programs lengthen the privatization process considerably and lower prices for firms sold— in the case of Mexico, each month of delay reduced the sale price by 2. 2 percent. Finally, this paper argues that it is essential to carefully deregulate and re-regulate privatized firms to ensure that they behave appropriately as well as to provide a corporate governance framework to ensure firms are able to finance their operations without relying on the Government for help. Number 4373 2004-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-513&pub_file_name=pubWP-513.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La enorme riqueza de recursos naturales de América Latina tiene efectos en muchos países de la región. La apertura económica en varios países fue seguida por un crecimiento rápido de la inversión extranjera y exportaciones de productos en cuya elaboración se emplean recursos naturales intensivamente. El crecimiento de sectores manufactureros que hacen uso intensivo de la mano de obra fue mucho menor. ¿Qué significa el aumento de la dependencia en sectores basados en recursos naturales para las perspectivas de desarrollo y la distribución del ingreso? Number 4129 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-378&pub_file_name=pubWP-378.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes econometrically how a country`s post-crisis debt ratio could be forecast, in the aftermath of a debt crisis, from the previous debt-to-GDP ratio. A critical parameter is simply the debt-to-PPP-GDP ratio, where PPP-GDP is, in current international dollars, the Summers-Heston value. In this formulation, this paper shows that the Latin American paradox disappears. This then leads to a simple conclusion: debt crises are more frequent in Latin American countries because they have more damaging consequences on the market value of GDP. This itself appears to be closely related to the fact that pre-crisis Latin American exchange rates are also overvalued (for a similar emphasis, see Calvo et al. , 2003). As a simple consequence of this model, the paper suggests computing the debt-to-PPP-GDP ratio as a new standard for analyzing debt sustainability. Number 4467 2006-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-565&pub_file_name=pubWP-565.pdf application/pdf Daniel Cohen Sébastien Villemot

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio analiza la legislación en Latín América y el Caribe con el propósito de determinar en qué medida contribuyen, o no, a la eliminación de riesgos para la salud. Los países incluidos son: Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belice, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, México, Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, República Dominicana, Trinidad y Tobago, Uruguay y Venezuela. La investigación se centró en las áreas de medicamentos, seguros privados de salud, certificación de profesionales y hospitales, contaminación ambiental, protección de alimentos, salud y seguridad ocupacionales, y bancos de sangre y servicios de transfusión. Para este estudio se investigó la legislación vigente hasta el 1 de abril de 2001 contenida en la base de datos LEYES, en varias bases de datos legislativas, nacionales y regionales y las bases de datos especializadas producidas da el Instituto Panamericano de Protección de Alimentos y Zoonoses (INPPAZ) y el Centro Panamericano de Ingeniería Sanitaria y Ciencias del Ambiente (CEPIS). Cada capítulo presenta una tabla que identifica los temas cubiertos y los vacíos que presentan las legislaciones de acuerdo con la información analizada. Number 4286 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-461&pub_file_name=pubWP-461.pdf application/pdf Mónica Bolis

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El desajuste financiero se está convirtiendo en algo corriente en América Latina. Los años 90 se caracterizaron por una gran inestabilidad en la magnitud y el costo de los flujos de capitales. La correlación de los vaivenes de los capitales entre países distintos sugiere que la calidad de las políticas de los mercados emergentes, además de los factores mundiales, han sido los factores principales de esta situación. Por lo tanto, la responsabilidad del desajuste financiero se ha alejado de las políticas internas inadecuadas. En vez de ello, el paradigma se ha desplazado hacia uno de determinar cuáles políticas internas o internacionales son las más eficaces para atemperar las repercusiones desestabilizadoras de los flujos de capitales inherentemente inestables. Number 4171 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-400&pub_file_name=pubWP-400.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Michael Gavin Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the effect of elections on fiscal policies in 21 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1983 to 1996. The budget surplus proves to be lower than normal in the preelectoral and higher in the postelectoral years. Both the expenditure and revenue sides contribute to this cyclicality. Number 4084 1997-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-354&pub_file_name=pubWP-354.pdf application/pdf Moritz Kraemer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys selected themes in the political economy of policymaking in Latin America, with an emphasis on recent research focusing on actual decision and implementation processes, and on the political institutions and state and social actors involved in those processes. In particular, the paper addresses how political rules work for or against intertemporal cooperation among political actors. The document shows that the extent to which polities obtain the key policy features that seem to determine development depends on the workings of political institutions, which define how the policymaking game is played, on the characteristics of the arenas of interaction, which define where the policymaking game is played, and on certain characteristics of key socioeconomic groups, which define who interacts with professionalpoliticians in pursuing different policy preferences. Political institutions, Public policies, Economic policy, Government capabilities, Development, Latin America Number 4658 2010-03 D72 D78 H10 H50 O10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-158&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-158.pdf application/pdf Martin Ardanaz Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The sharp differences between financial markets as they exist in Latin America and how we might expect them to look under full integration suggest that the financial constraints on Latin American economic development have much to do with the region`s financial markets` incomplete integration in the world financial system. This paper suggests that the underlying cause of Latin America`s limited integration with world financial markets is not explicit barriers to international financial transactions. Rather, weaknesses in the domestic financial markets that would be called upon to intermediate international capital flows impedes integration. An appropriate financial integration approach can strengthen and deepen the domestic financial system by permitting indirect imports of the requisite public goods (provided by the banks` home countries) and by allowing a greater diversification of national risks. Number 4052 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-337&pub_file_name=pubWP-337.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El objetivo del Proyecto de Investigación es el de analizar y explicar las formas contractuales quese observan en seis proyectos de Infraestructura Pública en los cuales hay participación privada enChile. En consecuencia, la unidad de análisis para la investigación es el proyecto de inversión elegido y más específicamente, el arreglo contractual entre el gobierno y el privado. Number 3110 2001-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-411&pub_file_name=pubR-411.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Sanhueza José Miguel Sánchez Ricardo D. Paredes Molina

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the reasons behind the low rates of contribution to social security programs in developing countries. Using a large set of harmonized household surveys from Latin America we compare contribution patterns among wage employees, for whom participation is compulsory, with contribution patterns among self-employed workers, for whom participation is often voluntary. In all countries, contribution rates among salaried workers are similarly correlated with education, earnings, size of the employer, household characteristics and age. In addition, contribution patterns among salaried workers are highly correlated with contribution patterns among the self-employed. Our results indicate that on average more than 30 percent of the explained within-country variance in contributions patterns may be accounted for by individuals’ low willingness to participate in old-age pension programs. Nonetheless, we also find evidence suggesting that some workers are rationed out of social security against their will. Number 4421 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-537&pub_file_name=pubWP-537.pdf application/pdf Paula Auerbach María Eugenia Genoni Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:10042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo evalúa la competitividad actual de Perú, que logró avances importantes durante la década de los 90 como resultado de reformas estructuras y el mejoramiento del manejo macroeconómico, y propone estrategias para seguir aumentando la competitividad del país. Los determinantes de la competitividad considerados incluyen los siguientes: i) los recursos productivos, ii) la calidad y productividad de los mismos, iii) la eficiencia con que operan sus mercados, iv) el estado de su infraestructura, v) la capacidad de innovación tecnológica de sus empresas y la productividad de su sistema nacional de innovación, vi) la percepción existente entre los inversionistas acerca de su estabilidad macroeconómica a largo plazo, vii) la fortaleza de sus instituciones y viii) la percepción de los inversionistas acerca de su estabilidad política a largo plazo. Para que Perú eleve su nivel de competitividad a lo largo del próximo quinquenio, el trabajo propone seis tareas estratégicas en las cuales debe concentrarse el esfuerzo de políticas públicas, que son las siguientes: i) eliminar la inestabilidad de las reglas de juego de la actividad económica del sector privado; ii) elevar la calidad de la educación e incrementar la capacitación laboral; iii) mejorar la infraestructura de transporte; iv) eliminar la corrupción en la administración pública; v) continuar la reforma de la administración de justicia, con el objetivo central de constituir al Poder Judicial en un bastión de seguridad jurídica para la actividad económica privada; y vi) realizar reformas del sistema financiero que hagan posible un acceso más amplio al crédito, así como reformas del mercado de capitales que faciliten la financiación de la inversión en capital fijo. Number 1004 2003-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=C-105&pub_file_name=pubC-105.pdf application/pdf Alberto Melo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45942019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La teoría del "jugador con poder de veto" sostiene que un mayor número de jugadores con poder de veto disminuye las probabilidades de cambio; por su parte, las políticas estables ayudan a mantener los compromisos pero pueden limitar la capacidad de adaptación ante circunstancias cambiantes. Este estudio cuestiona esta aserción, argumentando que la estabilidad de las políticas no significa necesariamente una menor adaptabilidad de las mismas. Si la formulación de políticas se realiza a través del tiempo con actores que interactúan repetidamente, un mayor número de políticas de cooperación puede llegar a lograr ambos objetivos a la vez, y un mayor número de actores con poder de veto pudiera inclusive favorecer la cooperación a través del tiempo. El estudio presenta una formalización simple del argumento y cierta evidencia empírica de diversos países. Number 4594 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-645&pub_file_name=pubWP-645.pdf application/pdf Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Mariano Tommasi Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Dada la multiplicidad de factores que pueden afectar el desempeño empresarial, tanto para los empresarios mismos como para las autoridades económicas de los países es preciso establecer la severidad de estos obstáculos para enfocar sus esfuerzos en los problemas más críticos. En este estudio analizamos dos fuentes nuevas y muy valiosas de información con ese objetivo. De un lado, utilizamos los resultados de un conjunto de `Encuestas de Ambiente Empresarial` (Business Environment Surveys) llevadas a cabo en 73 países, las cuales han indagado la importancia y gravedad de una serie de problemas que pueden afectar la operación y crecimiento de las firmas. De otro lado, analizamos información de balances contables de grandes empresas en 52 países de diferentes regiones del mundo con el fin de detectar algunos rasgos de las firmas latinoamericanas y analizar los determinantes del tamaño de las grandes empresas, bajo el presupuesto de que dichas firmas se encuentran en la frontera de las posibilidades de desarrollo empresarial que ofrece cada país. Number 4258 2001-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-447&pub_file_name=pubWP-447.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Patricia Cortés

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a series of experiments on discrimination in urban Lima, Peru. The experiments exploit degrees of information on performance as a way to assess how personal characteristics affect how people sort into groups, and the results show that behavior is not correlated with personal socio-economic and racial characteristics. However, people do use personal characteristics to sort themselves into groups. Height is a robust predictor of being desirable, as is being a woman. Looking indigenous makes one less desirable, and looking “white” increases one’s desirability. Interestingly, our experiments show that once information on performance is provided, almost all evidence of discrimination is eliminated. Although there is evidence of stereotyping or preference-based discrimination, clear information trumps discrimination. Number 3246 2008-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-543&pub_file_name=pubR-543.pdf application/pdf Máximo Torero Marco Castillo Ragan Petrie

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The capacity to sustain policies over time and the capacity to adjust policies in the face of changing circumstances are two desirable properties of policymaking systems. The veto player approach has suggested that polities with more veto players will have the capacity to sustain policies at the expense of the ability to change policy when necessary. This paper disputes that assertion from an intertemporal perspective, drawing from transaction cost economics and repeated game theory and showing that some countries might have both more credibility and more adaptability than others. More generally, the paper argues that, when studying the effects of political institutions on policy outcomes, a perspective of intertemporal politics might lead to predictions different from those emanating from more a-temporal approaches. Political institutions, Public policies, Veto players, Policy adaptability, Policy stability, Intertemporal, Credibility, Repeated games Number 4660 2010-03 D72 D78 H10 H50 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-159&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-159.pdf application/pdf Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Mariano Tommasi Ernesto Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En el presente documento se analiza la evolución de algunos indicadores sobre la provisión de agua potable en las dos principales ciudades de Ecuador. En Quito, el agua potable ha sido administrada directamente por la municipalidad mientras que en Guayaquil estos servicios fueron privatizados. El estudio compara varios índices de cobertura, calidad, y precios del agua potable, antes y después de la privatización, y entre estas dos ciudades. Los resultados sugieren que después de la privatización, a) el nivel de cobertura de agua potable en Guayaquil ha disminuido en comparación con el de Quito, particularmente dentro del grupo económico más pobre (primer quintil del ingreso); b) la presión del agua en Guayaquil ha disminuido en comparación a la Quito; y, c) el precio promedio del agua es más alto y ha aumentado a un ritmo más elevado en Guayaquil. Se advierte que estos resultados deben ser interpretados con mucha cautela ya que Quito no constituye un grupo de control adecuado para identificar el efecto causal de la privatización. Para ilustrar este argumento, se describe que las tendencias de cobertura de agua potable y la tasa de migración urbano-rural han sido radicalmente diferentes en las dos ciudades. Así mismo, por medio de un análisis institucional exhaustivo, se determina que las dos compañías son muy diferentes y que, asimetrías en su estructura institucional podrían explicar una gran parte de los resultados. El artículo concluye que en la década pasada, los servicios de agua potable en Quito han mejorado relativamente a los de Guayaquil; sin embargo, se enfatiza que el atraso relativo de la empresa Guayaquileña no puede ser atribuido exclusivamente a su privatización. Number 3237 2007-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-538&pub_file_name=pubR-538.pdf application/pdf Paul Carrillo Orazio Bellettini Elizabeth Coombs

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study has two central objectives. We first describe in detail the structure and behavior of Brazilian families during their life cycle. [1] Secondly, we investigate the main socioeconomic determining factors of alterations in families structure and behavior over the past few decades. We therefore have two interrelating objectives. We describe how the patterns have changed in the past few decades, on the one hand, while on the other, we investigate how these changes in the structure and behavior of the families can be explained by concomitant variations in the Brazilian socioeconomic environment. [1] The analytical unit with which we will be working is the household and not the family. Neverthless, we are using the word family throughout this study. Number 3115 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-417&pub_file_name=pubR-417.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Paes de Barros

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews the main causes of the rapid growth of credit in Peru during the 1990s. The creation of new types of lending intermediaries besides traditional banks has allowed debt to increase and credit to be extended to new classes of borrowers such as middle and lower-class urban residents. Improvements in information-sharing, borrower selection and the range of public and private arrangements available have further aided the expansion of credit. Evaluating several case studies, the paper concludes that credit growth remains limited by inefficient judicial enforcement procedures and insufficient information on borrowers` credit risk. Number 3077 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-378&pub_file_name=pubR-378.pdf application/pdf Carolina Trivelli Javier Alvarado Francisco Galarza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates the impact of relative price volatility on sector-level investment allocation using a panel of 65 countries with data for 26 manufacturing industries over the period 1985-2003. Results indicate that volatility distorts efficient investment allocation in that investment is not necessarily devoted to relatively more productive sectors, especially in emerging market economies that are highly exposed and may lack the necessary institutions to deal with it successfully. This is evidence in support of theories suggesting that relative price volatility provides incentives for entrepreneurs to adopt more “malleable” but less productive production technologies, enabling them to accommodate more easily abrupt and frequent changes in relative prices, but at the cost of using less productive technologies. Sector-level TFP, Relative price volatility, Investment allocation, Financial crises, Emerging markets, Malleable technologies Number 4682 2010-08 D24 E22 O31 L60 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-208&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-208.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Arturo Galindo Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org John Jairo Leon

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores, both formally and empirically, the political accountability mechanisms that lie behind the varying levels of public corruption and of effective governance taking place across nations. The first section develops a principal-agent model in which good governance is a function of the extent to which citizens can hold political officials accountable for their actions. Although policy-makers may have strong incentives to appropriate parts of the citizens` income, well-designed institutions (those increasing both informational flows and elite competitiveness) boost political accountability and reduce the space left for the appropriation of rents. The following sections of the paper test the model. The presence of democratic mechanisms of control and an increasingly informed electorate, measured through the frequency of newspaper readership, explain considerably well the distribution of corrupt practices and governmental ineffectiveness in three types of data sets: a large cross-section of countries in the late 1990s for which an extensive battery of governance indicators has been recently developed by Kaufmann et al. (1999a); a panel data set for the period 1980-95 and about 100 nations on corruption and bureaucratic quality based on experts` rankings; and corruption data for the cross-section of US states in the period 1977-95. Number 4241 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-438&pub_file_name=pubWP-438.pdf application/pdf Alicia Adsera Carles Boix Mark Payne

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las economías latinoamericanas están expuestas a una considerable vulnerabilidad a factores externos. Los desequilibrios internos y las sacudidas en los términos de intercambio a menudo se ven exacerbados por situaciones repentinas de apuro financiero. En este trabajo se analizan maneras de superar la vulnerabilidad a factores externos, recogiendo las enseñanzas de una comparación detallada de la respuesta de Chile y Australia a sacudidas externas recientes, así como los antecedentes de Australia en cuanto a esta experiencia. Se propone que para poder entender las paradas repentinas y los mecanismos que las atenúan, resulta útil resaltar y luego establecer una distinción entre dos dimensiones de la confianza de los inversionistas: la confianza en el país y la confianza en la moneda. Aunque estas dos dimensiones están interrelacionadas, conviene hacer algunas distinciones importantes. La falta de confianza en el país es un problema más de fondo y grave propio de las paradas repentinas. Pero la falta de confianza en la moneda nacional puede ser una fuente de problemas de confianza en el país, así como un motivo de debilidad de la capacidad de un país de manejar las paradas repentinas. Este trabajo trata además los pasos para mejorar la confianza de los inversionistas en el mediano plazo en esas dos dimensiones, así como las políticas necesarias para reducir los efectos del debilitamiento de la confianza en el país y la confianza en la moneda en el corto plazo. Number 4364 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-507&pub_file_name=pubWP-507.pdf application/pdf Ricardo J. Caballero Kevin Cowan Jonathan Kearns

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines early childhood development (ECD) outcomes and their association with family characteristics, investments, and environmental factors, with particular emphasis on the inter-generational transmission of cognitive abilities. The paper examines the causal relationship between parental cognitive abilities and ECD outcomes of their offspring using a rich data set from rural Guatemala that can account for such unobservable factors. A 10 percent increase in maternal Raven’s scores increase children’s Raven’s scores by 7. 8 percent. A 10 percent increase in maternal reading and vocabulary skills increases children’s score on a standard vocabulary test by 5 percent. Effects are larger for older children, and the impact of maternal cognitive skills is larger than for paternal skills. Number 4722 2011-05 J12 J24 N36 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36192127 application/pdf Ma. Cecilia Calderón John Hoddinott

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Mobilizing sufficient resources is essential for supporting environmental activities in developing countries, and cofinancing is generally considered an important tool to help developing countries increase the resources they need. Moreover, cofinancing should increase ownership of projects by local authorities while improving accountability. The literature, however, has not explored why certain projects receive higher levels of cofinancing than others. This paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the cofinancing ratio and its determinants using projects financed by the GEF Trust Fund. The empirical results confirm that the rules of the fund, requiring different minimum cofinancing ratios by size and focal area of the GEF projects, do matter. Other important factors include funds’ origins (foreign vs. domestic), types of cofinancing sources (reimbursable vs. non- reimbursable) and the particular GEF agencies involved. Number 4780 2012-06 F30 G20 Q50 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36937636 application/pdf Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org Bok-Keun Yu

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper detailed information on the budget institutions of Latin American countries is collected. These institutions are classified on a hierarchical/collegial scale, as a function of the existence of constraints on the deficit and voting rules. Number 4160 1998-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-394&pub_file_name=pubWP-394.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Alberto Alesina Rudolf Hommes Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the impact of formal property rights on plot use and credit access in 20 communities in Guatemala, and shows how these impacts differ depending on the community conflict context. The paper proposes a new instrument based on detailed information about the geographic location of the plots and historical titling processes to address the endogeneity concerns that are common in the property rights literature. The paper sheds light on whether the effect of land titles on plot use and credit access varies with the prevalence of conflicts and different types of conflict resolution mechanisms. The findings suggest that these factors might be crucial to understand the potential impacts on plot use of possible titling programs. Land titling, Conflicts, Latin America Number 2017 2009-03 O12 O13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-164&pub_file_name=pubCSI-164.pdf application/pdf Karen Macours

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper we propose the use of an alternative methodology to track low incomes based on Atkinson`s (1970) family of "equally distributed equivalent income" functions, which are called "general means" here. We provide a new characterization of general means that justifies their use in this context. Our method of evaluating the effects of growth on poor incomes is based on a comparison of growth rates for two standards of living: the ordinary mean and a bottom-sensitive general mean. The motivating question is: To what extent is growth in the ordinary mean accompanied by growth in the general mean? A key indicator in this approach is the growth elasticity of the general mean, or the percentage change in the general mean over the percentage change in the usual mean. Our empirical analysis estimates this growth elasticity for a data set containing 144 household surveys from 20 countries over the last quarter century. Among other results, we find that the growth elasticity of bottom sensitive general means is positive, but significantly smaller than one. This suggests that the incomes of the poor do not grow one-for-one with increases in average income. Number 4269 2001-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-453&pub_file_name=pubWP-453.pdf application/pdf James E. Foster Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este artículo utiliza un marco de datos de empresas de alrededor del mundo para comparar los indicadores de empleo de empresas privatizadas, privadas y publicas. Este estudio se concentra particularmente en salarios, beneficios, composición de la mano de obra, educación, entrenamiento, sindicalismo, y la calidad de la gerencia. Aunque la productividad de la mano de obra incrementó después de la privatización, el índice de trabajadores permanentes en comparación a trabajadores temporales también aumentó. La convergencia depende en la calidad de las instituciones, básicamente el estado de derecho. Esto no es solo verdad del índice de trabajadores permanentes a trabajadores temporales, pero también de la educación de la mano de obra, y de los años de experiencia de la gerencia. En lo contrario, el estado de derecho parece ser menos importante en el caso de productividad y entrenamiento de la mano de obra. Number 4525 2007-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-608&pub_file_name=pubWP-608.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Gianmarco León

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reports the results of a three-month randomized controlled trial to estimate the impact of an Internet and mobile telephone short message service (SMS) intervention on adolescents’ information about substances and rates of consumption. A low percentage of participants logged on to the Web platform, but most participants were reached through e-mails and SMS. It is found that the intervention was able to affect awareness that certain substances are drugs, but no significant changes in consumption habits were found. Randomized trial, Drugs, Smoking, Alcohol Number 4692 2010-11 I1 O31 C93 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-219&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-219.pdf application/pdf Ana Balsa Nestor Gandelman Rafael Porzecanski

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo analiza el papel de las características geográficas en la explicación del patrón de desarrollo económico regional en México. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que algunas variables geográficas, como el clima y la vegetación, explican una parte importante de las diferencias que existen tanto en el nivel como en la tasa de crecimiento del ingreso per capita entre los estados mexicanos. Un análisis simple de los determinantes de la esperanza de vida y de la escolaridad promedio demuestra que los aspectos geográficos también juegan un papel importante en la explicación de los diferenciales inter-estatales de estas variables en México. Estos resultados sugieren que una posible influencia de la geografía en el desarrollo económico regional se da a través de su efecto en el capital humano. Finalmente, este trabajo examina la contribución de las variables geográficas a la desigualdad regional en México. Los resultados de este ejercicio demuestran que los factores geográficos son los que más han contribuido a la desigualdad regional en México. Number 3090 2000-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-389&pub_file_name=pubR-389.pdf application/pdf Gerardo Esquivel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys and analyzes industrial policies in Colombia, finding extensive use of productive development policies (PDPs) and despite claims of only moderate government intervention. Rarely explicitly associated with the need to address market failures, PDPs are instead associated with economic reactivation and vaguely defined “competitiveness.” There are also PDPs that address government failures considered unlikely to be corrected by first-best interventions. Colombia has made progress, however, in structuring an institutional setting for PDP design that is sufficiently linked with private sector groups to elicit information on constraints and opportunities that require government intervention. Nonetheless, the overall set of PDPs in place still lacks coherence and is not always guided by the policy requests of the private sector more widely defined. Industrial policy, Productive development policy, Colombia Number 4669 2010-06 L52 L66 L67 L86 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-126&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-126.pdf application/pdf Marcela Melendez Guillermo Perry

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo es un aporte y una revista del debate de políticas en cuanto al aspecto del ahorro en América Latina, y se presenta una perspectiva nueva de la relación entre el ahorro y el crecimiento, entre el ahorro y la estabilización de la inflación y la reforma estructural, y entre el ahorro y los ingresos de capitales. Number 4071 1997-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-346&pub_file_name=pubWP-346.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:10032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a general framework for electricity market design in Latin American Countries that addresses current problems in the region. First presented is a theoretical foundation for analyzing the electricity market design problem, based on a generic principal-agent model. The paper then describes five essential features of a successful wholesale electricity market: i) a sufficient number of independent suppliers; ii) a forward market for electricity; iii) the active involvement of as many consumers of electricity as is economically feasible in the wholesale market; iv) a transmission network to facilitate commerce; and v) a credible regulatory mechanism, established as early as possible. Subsequently addressed are challenges to electrical industry restructuring in the region, followed by country-specific discussions of problems facing Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, and Mexico. Some of these challenges exemplify general issues, while others are unique to the geography, natural resource base or legal environment in the country. The paper closes with a proposed market design that should serve as a baseline market designthroughout the region. Number 1003 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=C-104&pub_file_name=pubC-104.pdf application/pdf Frank A. Wolak

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este estudio se examinan las características de los programas de estudio y los atributos y percepciones de los estudiantes de nivel licenciatura en seis de las principales facultades de economía de México, así como la evolución, inserción laboral y percepciones de los economistas en el periodo 2000-2005. Se notan tendencias que incluyen una pequeña disminución en las matrículas en carreras de economía, un aumento en el número de economistas empleados en el sector privado, una constante participación de las mujeres de aproximadamente la tercera parte de los ingresados en programas de economía, y un paulatino pero innegable incremento en el uso de Internet y otras herramientas de computación. También destaca el grado de que cursar una carrera en economía cambia las opiniones de los estudiantes sobre temas económicos. Economía, Educación superior, Inserción laboral, México Number 4616 2009-03 A11 A13 A22 A23 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-672&pub_file_name=pubWP-672_esp.pdf application/pdf Ivico Ahumada Lobo Fernando Butler Silva

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys four Argentinean industries—light ships, television programs, wines, and wooden furniture—that have experienced substantial export growth in recent years, particularly to developed countries. The case studies first describe the structure of the industries, then characterize the emergence of export pioneers and the subsequent process of diffusion. Finally, they analyze the role played by public institutions. Across sectors, the appearance of a pioneer is largely explained by a knowledge advantage relative to other industry participants regarding foreign markets, which the pioneer acquired previously and independently of his decision to export. Diffusion occurs across as well as within sectors, as pioneers’ knowledge is relevant to other industries. Since diffusion does not necessarily hurt the pioneer, public policy has a potentially important role in fostering diffusion within and across sectors. Small and Medium Enterprises, Exports, Argentina Number 4677 2010-07 L62 L66 L68 L82 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-166&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-166.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Artopoulos Daniel Friel Juan Carlos Hallak

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La inflación puede engrasar las ruedas del mercado laboral, al disminuir la rigidez del ajuste salarial, pero también puede aumentar la incertidumbre y tener un efecto negativo de arena. En este trabajo se analiza el efecto de flexibilización que produce la inflación, y se analiza si la interacción entre la inflación y la regulación del mercado laboral inciden en la forma en que el empleo responde a las variaciones de la producción. Los resultados demuestran que en países industriales con mercados laborales altamente regulados, el efecto de flexibilización que produce la inflación domina al efecto de arena. En el caso de los países en desarrollo, la inflación rara vez tiene un efecto significativo en la normativa de los mercados laborales, lo que podría deberse a la presencia de un sector informal considerable y a una aplicación de jure de la normativa de los mercados laborales limitada. Number 4348 2003-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-495&pub_file_name=pubWP-495.pdf application/pdf Ana Maria Loboguerrero Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Drawing on previously unused objective institutional data, we provide evidence for the causal link between rent-seeking behavior and democracy in Uruguay, a country where both rent-seeking behavior and political shifts have varied widely in the last 80 years, but where ethnolinguistic heterogeneity and income inequality have remained historically low. The latter helps better identify some “pure” political interactions and how they are linked with rent-seeking outcomes. We find that the presence and duration of democratic regimes appear to have been conducive to a decrease in rent-seeking actions in Uruguay, although the reduction in rent seeking does not appear to have had a bearing on the quality of democratic regime in the country. While the duration of democratic regime may impact rent-seeking behavior, rent seeking also displays a causal link to democratic duration. Number 4435 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-546&pub_file_name=pubWP-546.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este informe presenta los resultados de un estudio de tópicos macrofiscales y de la sostenibilidad fiscal en Bolivia. Los temas cuyo análisis acompaña al ejercicio central de sostenibilidad fiscal son los referidos a la evolución esperada de los recursos hidrocarburíferos (a la luz de la notable reorganización que el sector ha experimentado en Bolivia), la metodología de asignación de los recursos (y la eventual constitución de un fondo de estabilización) en la determinación de la dinámica del gasto público esperable, y otros aspectos del gasto público relacionados con el gasto social y en pensiones. Number 2010 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-136&pub_file_name=pubCSI-136_esp.pdf application/pdf Fernando Navajas Daniel Artana Marcelo Catena Juan Luis Bour

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper constructs a corporate governance practices index (CGI) from a set of 24 questions that can be objectively answered from publicly available information. The goal is to measure the overall quality of corporate governance practices of the largest possible number of firms. CGI levels have improved over time in Brazil, and an examination of CGI components demonstrates that Brazilian firms perform much better in disclosure than in other aspects of corporate governance. This paper finds very high concentration levels of voting rights leveraged by the widespread use of indirect control structures and non-voting shares. The paper does not find evidence for either entrenchment or incentives in Brazil using ownership percentages, but evidence is found that the separation of control from cash flow rights destroys value. The CGI maintains a positive, significant, and robust relationship with corporate value. A worst-to-best improvement in the CGI in 2002 would lead to a 0. 38 increase in Tobin’s q. This represents a 95 percent increase in the stock value of a company with the average leverage and Tobin’s q ratios. Considering our lowest CGI coefficient, a one-point increase in the CGI score would lead to a 6. 8 percent increase in the stock price of the average firm in 2002. No significant relationship is found between governance and the dividend payout. The results are placed in context by offering a comparative analysis with Chile. Number 3208 2005-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-514&pub_file_name=pubR-514.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Leal André Carvalhal-da-Silva

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the efficacy of three conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in Honduras, Mexico, and Nicaragua in mitigating the potential negative effects of an income shock caused by falling prices of coffee, an important cash crop to many CCT participants. A theoretical household model is developed that demonstrates both the positive potential of CCTs to mitigate negative shocks effects on early childhood development and the negative potential of CCTs to exacerbate the impacts of a negative shock to early childhood development if the conditionality encourages households to shift resources from younger to older children to sustain their school attendance. The experimental design includes both CCT and non-CCT households and communities with and without coffee production. The paper finds that in Mexico the CCT mitigated the negative shock on child height-for-age z-scores, while in Nicaragua coffeeproducing households who participated in CCTs saw greater declines in z-scores. Findings for Honduras are largely inconclusive. Number 4715 2011-03 H43 I12 I38 O15 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=35923257 application/pdf Seth R. Gitter James Manley Bradford Barham

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El sector sanitario en Chile ha tenido un importante desarrollo en los últimos 30 años, alcanzando en 1995 una cobertura urbana del 98% en agua potable y del 89% en evacuación de aguas servidas (alcantarillado). Entre la década del 70 y la actualidad, aumentó significativamente la cobertura de agua potable y alcantarillado, se aplicó un esquema tarifario que permite el autofinanciamiento de la operación e inversión con los cobros a los usuarios, y la gestión en el sector urbano es desarrollada por empresas reguladas por un organismo independiente. A pesar de los cambios de organización e institucionalidad producidos, no se ha encontrado evidencia de que las modificaciones hayan afectado decisivamente el desempeño del sector, estimándose que éste ha sido históricamente adecuado por contar con el financiamiento requerido y con equipos de profesionales y técnicos que han tenido continuidad. Se abordan los logros y los problemas pendientes, y se concluye que en el sector urbano se ha alcanzado una etapa de desarrollo en que la propiedad estatal constituye un factor restrictivo para mejorar la calidad del servicio (racionamientos, bajas presiones, etc. ) y desarrollar en un plazo corto el tratamiento generalizado de las aguas servidas. Number 3007 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-308&pub_file_name=pubR-308.pdf application/pdf Felipe G. Morandé Juan E. Doña

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este estudio está concebido para ayudar a los responsables a preparar y evaluar reformas institucionales de programas de educación y atención médica. Proporciona un marco analítico que puede ser usado por funcionarios públicos e investigadores, con estudios de casos específicos que ilustran una amplia gama de prácticas reales y un conjunto de lecciones aprendidas. El marco emplea el concepto de rendición de cuentas para vincular las metas amplias de reforma con las dimensiones claves de los arreglos organizacionales. Los estudios de casos específicos, basados en labor de campo en México y Nicaragua, muestran la amplia variedad de instrumentos de políticas disponibles. Number 4131 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-379&pub_file_name=pubWP-379.pdf application/pdf Alec Ian Gershberg

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31792019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this paper is to estimate the elasticity of substitution in the demand for non-tradable goods relative to tradable goods in Argentina. This parameter plays a crucial role in the analysis of the macroeconomic equilibrium of a small open economy (Mendoza, Galindo and Izquierdo, 2003). Using two data sets, estimates of approximately 0. 40 and 0. 48, respectively, are found for this elasticity. Number 3179 2004-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-485&pub_file_name=pubR-485.pdf application/pdf Martín González Rozada Pablo Andrés Neumeyer Alejandra Clemente Diego Luciano Sasson Nicholas Trachter

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El mercado de los bancos o los riesgos de las operaciones han aumentado apreciablemente en los últimos años, principalmente como resultado del crecimiento de los activos líquidos en los balances generales de los bancos y el aumento de las actividades no incluidas en los balances de los mismos. La considerable divulgación de fracasos de bancos y pérdidas de capitales significativas han contribuido a concentrar la atención aún más en esos acontecimientos. En enero de 1996, la Comisión de Basilea recomendó la imposición de cargos de capital relacionados con los riesgos comerciales de los bancos y la Directiva sobre adecuación del capital de la Comunidad Europea (CAD, por sus siglas en inglés) entró en vigor el 1 de enero y adopta parcialmente la Enmienda de Basilea. Los países del G10 están comprometidos a la aplicación plena de esas recomendaciones hacia finales de 1997. En este trabajo se pasa revista a las principales características de la Enmienda de Basilea, la cual permite que los bancos elijan entre una metodología estandarizada y el uso de sus propios modelos internos, sujeto a la autorización de la entidad supervisora pertinente y un conjunto de valores de parámetros. Se analiza la pertinencia de este reglamento para América Latina desde la perspectiva de las características de la región. Se sugiere que estas características hacen aumentar más que disminuir la importancia de la aplicación de requisitos de capital de riesgo de mercado en América Latina. Number 4073 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-347&pub_file_name=pubWP-347.pdf application/pdf Andrew Powell Veronica Balzarotti

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan los vínculos empíricos entre la dotación de factores, el comercio y la distribución del ingreso personal. La motivación es que muchos países en desarrollo han llevado adelante reformas radicales del comercio internacional en los últimos años. Estas reformas han hecho variar los precios relativos, han inducido la reasignación de recursos y pueden haber conducido a la introducción de nuevas técnicas de producción. Esos cambios son muy complejos y su efecto final sobre la distribución del ingreso no está del todo clara desde el punto de vista teórico. El objetivo del autor es presentar un extracto de hechos empíricos sobre las relaciones entre la distribución del ingreso, la dotación de factores y el comercio. Number 4089 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-356&pub_file_name=pubWP-356.pdf application/pdf Antonio Spilimbergo Juan Luis Londoño Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El enfoque de esta documento es analizar la problemática de la posesión y acceso a activos por parte de los pobres. Los activos privados, públicos y de organización son los principales determinantes del flujos de gastos e ingresos de las familias, y son por lo tanto cruciales para determinar si una familia logra salir de la pobreza. En ese sentido, las políticas públicas deben estar cuidadosamente a dirigidas a resolver las inequidades en el acceso a determinados activos que son susceptibles de intervención estatal y que facilitan el acceso, la acumulación, así como el incremento de la rentabilidad de los activos de los hogares. Con este fin, este documento evalúa en primer lugar la naturaleza, características y evolución reciente de la pobreza en el Perú, así como las tendencias en la distribución de los ingresos/gastos y los activos. . Luego se efectúa una taxonomía de los activos de la población, mostrando la dispersión existente así como las diferencias en la posesión y acceso de activos por parte de los más pobres. Con estas herramientas se establecen relaciones entre los distintos tipos de activos y el status de pobreza, asi como la movilidad de los hogares en la escala de ingresos/gastos. Además, se determina el efecto de la tenencia o acceso de ciertos activos públicos u organizacionales sobre la rentabilidad de ciertos activos privados. Number 3059 1999-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-361&pub_file_name=pubR-361.pdf application/pdf Javier Escobal Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví Máximo Torero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Existe una vasta literatura que muestra que la política fiscal en países industrializados es acíclica o contracíclica y procíclica en países emergentes. Mucha de esta literatura se basa en regresiones MCO que se enfocan en la correlación entre una variable fiscal (usualmente el balance presupuestario o crecimiento del gasto) ya sea crecimiento del PIB o alguna medida de la brecha del producto. Este paper argumenta que tal metodología no permite la identificación del efecto del ciclo real en la política fiscal y por lo tanto no se puede usar para estimar funciones de reacción de política. El paper propone un nuevo instrumento para el crecimiento del PIB y muestra que una vez que éste esté debidamente instrumentado, la prociclicidad tiende a desaparecer. Number 4509 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-599&pub_file_name=pubWP-599.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza Dany Jaimovich

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper revisits economic growth in Colombia using the growth diagnostics methodology proposed by Hausmann, Rodrik and Velasco (2005), to identify the most binding constraints for economic growth and the policies that, if implemented, can have the largest positive impact. To rank public policy priorities the HRV (2005) methodological approach is complemented with an econometric analysis of micro-data, aimed at exploring the impact that the various potential constraints to growth have had on firm-level investment decisions. The data shows economic reactivation in areas with falling violence. Results from analysis at the microeconomic level, however, give a particular spin to this conclusion by showing that investment decisions at the firm level are also explained by the restoration of some form of public order connected to the cessation of paramilitary violence and not only by the reduction of violence. From a public policy perspective, perhaps the most relevant result is the confirmation that in Colombia investment decisions are negatively affected by the cost of financing. Empirical results, robust across model specifications, single out the provision of access to financing at fair prices as a policy priority for economic growth, relevant across country regions and independent of whether uncertainties from poor protection to property rights are resolved. Number 2006 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-112&pub_file_name=pubCSI-112.pdf application/pdf Arturo Harker Marcela Melendez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper we estimate the early effect of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on trade. We use a panel data set that includes the most recent information on bilateral trade for 22 developed countries from 1992 through 2002. During this period 12 European countries formally entered into a currency union. This is a unique event that allows us to study the effect of currency union among a relatively homogeneous group of industrial countries. Controlling for a host of other factors, we find that the effect of EMU on bilateral trade between member countries ranges between 5 and 10 percent, when compared to trade between all other pairs of countries, and between 9 and 20 percent, when compared to trade among non-EMU countries. In addition, we find no evidence of trade diversion. If anything, our results suggest that monetary union increases trade not just with EMU countries, but also with the rest of the world. Number 4339 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-490&pub_file_name=pubWP-490.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Ernesto H. Stein Guillermo Luis Ordoñez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Se usaron datos de panel para siete países de América Latina para evaluar la influencia del endeudamiento público de la inversión pública en infraestructura durante el período 1987-2001. Los aumentos de deuda se asocian con inversión alta de infraestructura pública, un efecto que es resistente a la inclusión de muchas otras variables fiscales y macroeconómicas. Este trabajo también encuentra alguna evidencia de complementariedad entre la inversión pública y privada y en el efecto negativo de los préstamos de ajuste del FMI en gastos de infraestructura. No se encuentra evidencia que los incumplimientos de la deuda afectan la inversión pública en infraestructura. Number 4503 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-595&pub_file_name=pubWP-595.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) ¿Ha mejorado la apertura financiera la eficiencia con la que se distribuyen los fondos de inversión a los usuarios que compiten por ellos? En este trabajo estudiamos esta cuestión empleando datos de panel al nivel de empresa correspondientes a 12 países en desarrollo. Desarrollamos un índice resumido de la eficiencia en la asignación de inversiones que cuantifica si los fondos de inversión llegan hasta las empresas que exhiben un rendimiento marginal del capital mayor, y hasta qué punto. Luego analizamos la relación entre este índice y varias mediciones de apertura financiera. Los resultados sugieren que, en la mayoría de los casos, la reforma financiera ha conducido a un aumento de la eficiencia con la que se asignan los fondos de inversión. Number 4296 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-467&pub_file_name=pubWP-467.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Fabio Schiantarelli Andrew Weiss

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Schooling is a major factor in economic development. There is extensive empirical literature on what determines schooling attainment. But most of this literature uses micro data to explore connections between schooling attainment and family background and experiences, local markets, local schools and other community characteristics. These studies generally have not linked schooling attainment closely to changes in aggregate economic conditions. This paper uses a new high quality data set for 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries to assess the effects of macro conditions on schooling attainment. Household survey data are used to construct a quasi panel with information on attainment for birth cohorts born between 1930 and 1970, which is merged with country-specific aggregate data. We use the data to document schooling progress in Latin America and estimate multivariate relations for schooling attainment by birth cohorts as related to sets of variables for macroeconomic stability, factor endowments, demographic developments, institutions and culture and religion. These estimates are used to decompose the change in schooling progress by decade, and to explore the causes of the slowdown in schooling accumulation in the region since the 1980s debt crisis. Number 4184 1999-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-407&pub_file_name=pubWP-407.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Jere R. Behrman Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The Venezuelan experience in the 1980s is a particularly fertile ground for the analysis of negative shocks. Two large shocks took place under very different control regimes, thus highlighting the role the institutional setting plays in determining the response. Moreover, the experience can shed a different light into the convenience of alternative exchange rate regimes for countries subject to large and frequent trade shocks. In addition, the analysis can be simplified for two reasons. First, oil shocks only have direct effects on the public sector, thus implying that it is the policy reaction to the shock that will affect households and firms. Secondly, the supply response of the oil industry is not of macroeconomic interest. Number 4010 1995-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-307&pub_file_name=pubWP-307.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the determinants of illegal immigration in the United States from Mexico from 1976 to 1995. The main challenge in the empirical work is that the observations are not the number of individuals that attempt to enter the United States illegally, but rather the number of individuals apprehended attempting to cross the U. S. -Mexico border illegally. Based on a simple model of the individual migration decision, we postulate the existence of an apprehensions function, which expresses the number of apprehensions at the U. S. -Mexico border as a function of the number of illegal attempts to cross the border an the level of border-enforcement effort exerted by the U. S. government. Number 4036 1996-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-328&pub_file_name=pubWP-328.pdf application/pdf Gordon H. Hanson Antonio Spilimbergo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper considers the effects of trade unions on the education sector in Argentina. We have provided a substantial amount of new information and we have found useful preliminary results on some of the channels of union influence on the performance of this crucial sector. We find that those provinces where teacher unionism is fragmented, where union density is higher and where political relations with the governor are more conflictual, have more strikes (fewer class days). Based on estimates of education production functions both in this paper and elsewhere, we expect this to translate into lower student performance. We then find a number of weak conclusions related to the impact that unions have on several variables that affect students’ performance (i. e. , teachers’ tenure, job satisfaction, class size, education budget and teachers’ salaries). Reviewing these results, we conclude that the impact of unions on students’ performance depends on the channel and kind of political market where unions operate, but not on the existence of unions per se. Number 3156 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-463&pub_file_name=pubR-463.pdf application/pdf Maria Victoria Murillo Mariano Tommasi Lucas Ronconi Juan Sanguinetti

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates the effects of equipment investment on relative wages and employment of skilled labor and explores their dynamics. The basic hypothesis is that they are positive, due to either equipment-skill complementarity or to skill advantage in technology adoption. Using a panel data set with a wide rage of countries, the relative wage and relative employment of skilled workers are regressed on lagged investment in machinery and other relevant variables. The results indicate a strong, positive effect of machinery investment on the relative demand for skilled labor. Number 4042 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-331&pub_file_name=pubWP-331.pdf application/pdf Karnit Flug Zvi Hercowitz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente informe analiza de manera sucinta las ponencias efectuadas tanto por las autoridades del gobierno de Honduras como por el representante del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) en la reunión mantenida por ambas partes el 24 de abril de 2007 en Tegucigalpa. En la exposición se han tomado en cuenta, asimismo, las conversaciones previas mantenidas por el consultor con las autoridades del gobierno en la misión de apoyo realizada en los últimos días de febrero de 2007, así como algunos análisis cuantitativos llevados a cabo en el marco de consistencia elaborado, en la órbita de dicha misión, a pedido de las autoridades. Number 2014 2008-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-160&pub_file_name=pubCSI-160_esp.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Katz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:10022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La persistencia del conflicto interno en Colombia inhibe todos los elementos principales que contribuyen a la determinación de la competitividad de la economía nacional, que son los siguientes: (i) el monto de sus recursos productivos; (ii) la calidad y productividad de los mismos; (iii) la eficiencia con que operan sus mercados; (iv) el estado de su infraestructura; (v) la capacidad de innovación tecnológica de sus empresas y la productividad de su sistema nacional de innovación; (vi) la percepción existente entre los inversionistas acerca de su estabilidad macroeconómica de largo plazo; (vii) la fortaleza de sus instituciones, y (viii) la percepción de los inversionistas acerca de su estabilidad política de largo plazo. Por consecuencia, los puntos que definen la agenda de temas cruciales para elevar la competitividad del país son los siguientes: i) la solución al conflicto interno; ii) la creación de un ambiente institucional favorable a la inversión y al crecimiento; iii) la restauración del equilibrio fiscal; iv) la transformación del sistema financiero y los mercados de capital en palancas efectivas de desarrollo; y v) la promoción de la innovación tecnológica y la adopción de nuevas tecnologías. Number 1002 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=C-103&pub_file_name=pubC-103.pdf application/pdf Alberto Melo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Cross-country studies have found a negative relationship between income inequality and economic growth. The main problem with the cross-country analyses is the poor quality of the data on income distribution. This paper tests the robustness of the cross-country results to the use of a more accurate cross- state data-set. Number 4178 1999-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-404&pub_file_name=pubWP-404.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio, la autonomia administrativa de las instituciones gubernamentales en Perú: los casos del Banco Central, la superintendencia de la Banca y la Comision Antidumping explica y analiza tres casos de autonomía en el Perú. Number 3040 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-342&pub_file_name=pubR-342.pdf application/pdf Julio Velarde Martha Rodriguez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se documenta el elevado nivel de protección contra la inestabilidad laboral en mercados laborales latinoamericanos y se analizan sus repercusiones sobre el empleo. Los autores muestran que las políticas de estabilidad laboral tienen un efecto considerable sobre el nivel y la distribución del empleo en América Latina. Esas políticas reducen el empleo y promueven la desigualdad. La organización institucional del mercado laboral incide tanto en el empleo como en la desigualdad. Number 4228 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-430&pub_file_name=pubWP-430.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org James J. Heckman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Conditional transfer programs are becoming a common approach to influence household decisions. The evidence to date is that these programs are good at promoting certain outcomes such as school attendance, but that other outcomes such as reducing child labor are more difficult to achieve. This study examines the impact of Superémonos, a conditional transfer program in Costa Rica, which provides poor families with a subsidy for the purchase of food conditional upon children regularly attending school. Using three different empirical techniques—simple comparison of mean outcomes, regression analysis and propensity score matching—we examine the program’s impact on school attendance, performance in school and child labor. We find strong evidence that the program achieves its goal of improving school attendance and much weaker evidence regarding school performance. The program does not reduce the likelihood that youth will work. These findings are discussed in the context of the results from impact evaluations of other conditional transfer programs. Number 4359 2004-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-505&pub_file_name=pubWP-505.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Andrew Morrison

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The adoption of emergency employment and short-term training programs to provide income support to the population affected by the episodes of economic volatility since 1995 reveals the failure of the traditional, labor law-based income support mechanisms in the region. These emergency programs are not additional and transitory, but rather have become a permanent component of social policies. As such, they present policymakers with the opportunity to build a more encompassing and better designed mechanism to protect workers against the effects of macroeconomic volatility. The paper argues for an income support system centered on unemployment insurance, complemented with additional mechanisms to provide effective income support to workers during normal times; the paper also discusses what changes are necessary in emergency programs to make them work as part of that system. Number 4219 2000-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-425&pub_file_name=pubWP-425.pdf application/pdf Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Past research has provided evidence of the role of some personal characteristics as risk factors for depression. However, few studies have examined jointly their specific impact and whether country characteristics change the probability of being depressed. In general, this is due to the use of single-country databases. The aim of this paper is to extend previous findings by employing a much larger dataset and including the country effects mentioned above. The paper estimates probit models with country effects and explores linkages between specific environmental factors and depression using data from the 2007 Gallup Public Opinion Poll. Findings indicate that depression is positively related to being a woman, adulthood, divorce, widowhood, unemployment and low income. Moreover, there is evidence of the significant positive association between inequality and depression, especially for those living in urban areas. Finally, some population’s characteristics facilitate depression (age distribution and religious affiliation). Depression, Health, Well-being, Cross-country research Number 4684 2010-09 D01 I10 I12 J18 Z13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-195&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-195.pdf application/pdf Natalia Melgar Maximo Rossi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The presidential politics literature depicts presidents either as all-powerful actors or figureheads and seeks to explain outcomes accordingly. The president and the executive branch are nonetheless usually treated as black boxes, particularly in developing countries, even though the presidency has evolved into an extremely complex branch of government. While these developments have been studied in the United States, far less is known in other countries, particularly in Latin America, where presidential systems have been considered the source of all goods and evils. To help close the knowledge gap and explore differences in policymaking characteristics not only between Latin America and the US but also across Latin American countries, this paper summarizes the vast literature on the organization and resources of the Executive Branch in the Americas and sets a research agenda for the study of Latin American presidencies. Number 4756 2011-12 D73 D78 H00 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36607036 application/pdf Alejandro Bonvecchi Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El documento analiza los determinantes del ahorro interno en Uruguay. Por un lado, se consideran los determinantes de ahorro privado, mediante un análisis econométrico de las series anuales y trimestrales del consumo privado agregado. Por otro lado, se analiza el resultado fiscal mediante una descomposición entre factores discrecionales y no discrecionales. Se pone particular énfasis en el análisis de los efectos de dos episodios de estabilización basados en el tipo de cambio (1978-82 y 1991 en adelante) y la liberalización financiera de mediados de los años 70. Se encuentra que no se puede aceptar la hipótesis de ingreso permanente-ciclo de vida, existiendo una dependencia contemporánea entre crecimiento del consumo privado y crecimiento del ingreso que puede interpretarse como proveniente de restricciones de liquidez (de acuerdo al modelo de Campbell y Mankiw, 1989). El grado de esas restricciones de liquidez varía con el crédito bancario, pero este factor no resulta importante en los booms de consumo que acompañaron a los planes de estabilización basados en el tipo de cambio. Por otro lado, paradójicamente, no parecen haber cambios relevantes en el grado de restricciones de liquidez antes y después de la liberalización financiera. Number 3022 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-323&pub_file_name=pubR-323.pdf application/pdf Nelson Noya Fernando Lorenzo Carlos Grau-Perez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44472019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a difference-in-difference methodology similar to the one originally proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998) to test whether defaulting hurts the more export-oriented industries. Strong support for this hypothesis was found, but contrary to the findings of previous studies, our estimations suggest that the effect of defaults is short-lived. Number 4447 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-553&pub_file_name=pubWP-553.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Borensztein Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Specific information on trade and financial markets across international borders is costly to acquire. Sellers and buyers rely instead on information obtained from partner behavior in other countries. Three channels are identified through which information is disseminated in import and equity markets of 14 OECD countries. The first consists of information spillovers from commercial to financial markets and vice-versa. We find strong evidence in support of the first direction and some for the reverse, suggesting that traders use common information, frequently from the same sources, such as financial intermediaries. The second and third channels emphasize seller and buyer reputation in third markets. They are equally important in explaining bilateral import flows, but buyer reputation appears to be more relevant for equity flows. All three channels may help better explain contagion effects across markets and countries. Number 4335 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-488&pub_file_name=pubWP-488.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Jacques Morriset Marcelo Olarreaga

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The laws that regulate relations between firms and workers in Mexico distinguish sharply between salaried and non-salaried workers, and they are at the root of the existence of informality. This paper provides a clear definition of informality, distinguishing it from illegality. Using Mexico’s Economic Census, the paper shows that the majority of firms are informal but legal, that there are more small formal firms than large ones, and that some large firms are informal. It also shows that informality and illegality increased in the period 1998-2008. Using a simple model of monopolistic competition to measure the productivity losses due to distortions that misallocate resources, the paper finds that one peso of capital and labor allocated to formal and legal firms is worth 28 percent more than if allocated to illegal and informal firms, and 50 percent more than if allocated to legal and informal firms. The paper concludes arguing that the distortions in the labor market created by informality reduce total factor productivity. Number 4789 2012-08 D24 L25 O47 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37042758 application/pdf Matias Busso mbusso@iadb.org Maria Victoria Fazio Santiago Levy Algazi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se emplean datos de hogares de dos ciudades panameñas para evaluar los factores que determinan la decisión sobre la duración de la residencia en el contexto de dos modelos. Los factores claves que explican la decisión de alquilar o comprar tienen que ver con el ciclo de vida de la familia, mientras que la elección entre comprar una casa completa o ir construyéndola poco a poco depende principalmente del ingreso y los activos. Number 4157 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-392&pub_file_name=pubWP-392.pdf application/pdf Michael Jacobs William D. Savedoff

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The wave of structural reforms in Latin America and elsewhere has stimulated the development of a wide body of theoretical literature on the political economy of reform, i. e. , the study of the political constraints that condition the timing, speed and sequencing of reforms. This paper tests some of the hypotheses associated with these theoretical models, using a set of structural reform indicators for approximately twenty Latin American countries for the period 1985-1995. Although there is strong support for some hypotheses, recent reforms in Latin America cannot be adequately explained without either better theories or better data. Number 4217 2000-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-424&pub_file_name=pubWP-424.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (For PDF English version go to: WP-470) The future of structural reforms in Latin America is under discussion. The purpose of this document is to synthesize the facts and opinions that underlie this debate. The first section shows that although the reform process has not ground to a halt, it has been incomplete and uneven, both across countries and different areas of reform. The greatest progress has been made in reforming the trade and financial sectors. In terms of tax reform and privatization, the record has been mixed across countries. The most modest progress has been made in the area of labor code reform. The second section analyzes the status of public opinion of the reform process. Disillusionment with the reforms has been growing, particularly among the middle class. This disapproval, rather than reflecting concerns about the state of the economy or the degree of progress of the reforms, stems from the corruption that has tainted the privatization process in some countries. The third section reviews the effects of the reforms. Their impact on growth seems to have been positive, albeit temporary, but the effects on employment and income distribution have varied in different areas of reform and according to the particular context in each country. Specifically, the effectiveness of reforms has depended heavily on the quality of public institutions. The fourth section summarizes the main proposals to expand or reorient the reform agenda in the region. One set of proposals suggests broadening the Washington Consensus with more active policies aimed at addressing the need for greater economic stability, social integration and equitable income distribution. Another set of proposals, guided by a more encompassing view of the goals of development, emphasizes the interaction among civil society, the private sector, and the government. Finally, a more radical vision proposes a new national and international institutional architecture that would limit the role of markets and mitigate the effects of globalization. Number 4303 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-471&pub_file_name=pubWP-471.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Based on a cross-country comparison of dynamic new firms, this paper attempts to characterize Latin American middle-class entrepreneurs and their firms. In general, Latin American middle-class entrepreneurs tend to face more difficult conditions in terms of resources and skills acquisition than those belonging to more affluent social strata. They tend to have earlier exposure to business experience since they generally belong to families in which their fathers’ occupation allowed for such exposure, and the universities where they studied are sounder platforms for developing abilities and contacts. Likewise, compared to middle-class entrepreneurs from more developed regions, Latin American middle- class entrepreneurs tend to be less exposed to the business world and entrepreneurial role models. Additionally, they are more likely to rely on a less qualified and less business-specific support network, and initial financing is less accessible to them. The paper summarizes several key policy implications and recommendations derived from the analysis. Number 4800 2012-07 L26 M13 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37001567 application/pdf Hugo D. Kantis Juan S. Federico Luis A. Trajtenberg

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The main objective of this document is to identify structural long-term factors that can help to understand the exchange rate policy in Peru during the last fifty years. Rather than identifying particular causes that could help to understand specific decisions at some point in time, the emphasis is on those general political economy arguments that explain the main trends and changes in exchange rate policy over long periods of time. Thus, two main things need to be understood: the choice of the exchange rate regime and its level. Number 3063 1999-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-365&pub_file_name=pubR-365.pdf application/pdf GRADE GRADE

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes various dimensions of the quality of life in Montevideo. The paper finds that satisfaction with various public goods and services at the neighborhood level play a minor role in the overall reported well-being of individuals and in the satisfaction of life domains, such as leisure, social life, family, health, housing, neighborhood economic situation and work. This is in spite the fact that there are significant disparities in a wide range of indicators among those living in different areas of the city. The results further suggest that differences in overall happiness and in domain satisfaction are mostly due to differences in individual outcomes like education, health, labor situation and housing quality. Number 3262 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-561&pub_file_name=pubR-561.pdf application/pdf Giorgina Piani Zuleika Ferre Nestor Gandelman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents evidence of the relationship between the disparity in the academic performance of boys and girls in Colombia and the country’s excessively high school dropout rates. By using the OLS and trimming for bounds techniques, and based on data derived from the PISA 2009 database, the presented findings show that the vast majority of this gender-related performance gap is explained by selection problems in the group of low-skilled and poor male students. In particular, the high dropout rate overestimates male performance means, creating a selection bias in the regular OLS estimation. In order to overcome this issue, unobservable male students are simulated and bounding procedures used. The results of this analysis suggest that low-income men are vulnerable to dropping out of school in the country, which leads to overestimating the actual performance levels of Colombian men. Number IDB-WP-469 2014-01 I21 I25 J16 J24 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38351913 application/pdf Juan Sebastian Munoz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents theory and evidence on the determinants of the size of the informal sector. We propose a simple theoretical model in which the informal sector`s size is negatively related to institutional quality and positively related to income inequality. These predictions are then empirically validated using different proxies of the size of the informal sector, income inequality, and institutional quality. The results are shown to be robust with respect to a variety of econometric specifications. Number 4377 2004-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-516&pub_file_name=pubWP-516.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-pb-2102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This policy brief takes stock of the research on government capabilities undertaken at the Inter-American Development Bank, highlights the relevance of government capabilities for generating better policies and higher levels of development, summarizes what has been learned about the origins of those capabilities, suggests avenues for further exploration, and derives lessons (and caveats) for institutional reforms and for the operational work of the Bank. Number IDB-PB-210 2014-01 D72 D73 D78 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38369203 application/pdf Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41332019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Muchos países latinoamericanos han puesto en práctica regímenes de libre comercio recientemente, como parte de un conjunto más amplio de reformas de mercado, y han abandonado sus políticas de industrialización basada en la sustitución de importaciones. En los años 80, Chile, México y Bolivia fueron de los primeros países del continente en reducir sus aranceles y prácticamente eliminar las restricciones cuantitativas a las importaciones. Fueron seguidos por muchos otros, entre ellos Argentina, Brasil, Colombia, Jamaica, Perú, Uruguay, Venezuela y Trinidad y Tobago. Todos esos países están actualmente mucho más expuestos a la competencia internacional que nunca antes. Pero, ¿será buena idea? ¿En realidad se hallan más restringidos los derechos de los trabajadores en los países asiáticos exportadores que en América Latina? Y de ser así, ¿se ven perjudicados los trabajadores latinoamericanos por las normas laborales asiáticas, más laxas? Number 4133 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-380&pub_file_name=pubWP-380.pdf application/pdf Patrick Belser

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Tradable permit markets for carbon dioxide (C02) emissions respond to short-run fluctuations in economic activity. To provide stability, both price and quantity interventions have been proposed. This paper focuses on the relative performance of fixed versus intensity allowances in the presence of both productivity and energy price uncertainty. Both instruments achieve the same steady-state emissions reduction target of 20 percent, which is similar to the current policy proposals, and the regulator then chooses the allowance policy that has the lowest expected abatement cost. A standard real business cycle (RBC) model is used to solve for the expected abatement cost under both policies. Expected cost outcomes are compared using data from the U. S. economy as the baseline scenario. Unlike previous studies, this paper’s results show that, under a reasonable model calibration, fixed allowances outperform intensity allowances by a cost difference of as much as 30 percent. Number IDB-WP-450 2013-10 E32 Q54 Q58 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38204670 application/pdf Olli-Pekka Kuuselaa Gregory S. Amacher Kwok Ping Tsang

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La economía peruana actualmente tiene una baja capacidad para la generación de empleos de calidad, asociada a los bajos niveles de productividad laboral. La primera parte del documento analiza datos del período 2000-2006 y encuentra pocos avances en cuanto al crecimiento de la productividad laboral y los niveles de empleo de calidad. La segunda parte de la investigación ausculta las empresas de dos sectores específicos que destacan por su capacidad de generación de empleo. De acuerdo a una encuesta especialmente aplicada, los tres elementos que coadyuvarían más positivamente para la productividad de los espárragos serían: el acceso al financiamiento, la formación de los trabajadores disponibles, y la relación con los proveedores e intermediarios. En el caso de los hoteles, los tres elementos detectados más positivos para la productividad del sector serían: la formación de los trabajadores, el precio por habitación, y la capacitación gerencial y directiva. Productividad laboral, empleo, Perú Number 4636 2009-09 D24 E24 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-691&pub_file_name=pubWP-691_esp.pdf application/pdf Juan Chacaltana Gustavo Yamada

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Como respuesta a una convocatoria realizada por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, BID, el Centro de Investigaciones en Salud y Violencia, CISALVA, presentó a consideración de dicha entidad la propuesta de investigación "Dimensionamiento de la Violencia en Colombia". El presente informe da cuenta de los hallazgos en el estudio. La investigación se propuso como objetivo determinar en Colombia, para el quinquenio 1991-1995, la magnitud de las violencia intencional y no intencional medidas en términos de homicidios, lesiones y delitos contra la propiedad--con exclusión de perjuicios de origen político, asociados a la acción del narcotráfico y de ocurrencias en espacios privados o íntimos--analizando los riesgos y costos asociados y sus causas mas próximas. Para tal propósito, se discriminaron los tipos principales de delito en el país especialmente los homicidios, lesiones y delitos contra la propiedad, y se cuantificó la dimensión de la criminalidad durante el período a nivel global y desagregada por regiones. Para las lesiones no fatales se caracterizaron los actores y los episodios. Por otra parte, se efectuó una aproximación agregada al impacto económico de las violencias estudiadas, con base en el cálculo de pérdidas ocasionadas (años de vida potencial perdidos, incapacidad por lesiones, daños y pérdidas materiales en delitos reportados contra la propiedad) y se valoraron los costos de dichas pérdidas. Finalmente, se identificaron riesgos asociados a los eventos y se establecieron relaciones causales entre los episodios y algunos factores claves. Para el desarrollo de la investigación se contó con el concurso de investigadores de diferentes instituciones: la Universidad del Valle, particularmente de CISALVA, CIDSE (Centro de Investigación y Documentación Socioeconómica) y de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; del Instituto Nacional de Medicina Legal, sede Cali; Fundación Corona; Ministerio de Salud; de la Secretría de Salud de Cali; del Programa de investigación epidemiológica de DESEPAZ, Alcaldía de Cali; y de la Comisión de Convivencia Ciudadana del Comité Empresarial Permanente del Valle del Cauca. Number 3037 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-339&pub_file_name=pubR-339.pdf application/pdf CISALVA CISALVA

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44792019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper evaluates under which conditions different Taylor-type rules lead to determinacy and expectational stability (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibrium in a simple New Keynesian small open economy model, developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). In particular, we extend the Bullard and Mitra (2002) results of determinacy and E-stability in a closed economy to this small open economy framework. Our results highlight an important link between the Taylor principle and both determinacy and learnability of equilibrium in small open economies. More importantly, the degree of openness coupled with the nature of the policy rule adopted by the monetary authorities might change this link in important ways. A key finding is that, contrary to Bullard and Mitra, expectations-based rules that involve the CPI and/or the nominal exchange rate limit the region of E-stability and the Taylor Principle does not guarantee E-stability. We also show that some forms of managed exchange rate rules can help to alleviate problems of both indeterminacy and expectational instability, yet these rules might not be desirable since they promote greater volatility in the economy. Number 4479 2006-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-576&pub_file_name=pubWP-576.pdf application/pdf Luis Gonzalo Llosa Vicente Tuesta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Con el 60% de la fuerza laboral trabajando en los márgenes de la legislación laboral o en microempresas que carecen de reglamentos laborales básicos, el Perú tiene uno de los más altos niveles de informalidad laboral en toda Latino América (Marcouiller, Ruiz de Castilla, y Woodruff, 1997). Este artículo identifica dos factores que pueden explicar la variación en los grados de informalidad en los años noventa. Primero, en el Perú hubo un incremento en la asignación de empleos en sectores tradicionalmente informales, en particular, ventas al por menor y transportación. En segundo plano, en el Perú hubo un aumento severo en costos no laborales, a pesar de una gran reducción en la productividad de la economía. El artículo también ilustra la negativa correlación entre productividad y informalidad evaluando los impactos del programa de entrenamiento juvenil, PROJOVEN. Number 4527 2007-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-609&pub_file_name=pubWP-609.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org José Galdo Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This report studies the change in performance of Bolivian State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) that have been transferred to the private sector. The paper focuses particularly on how ownership affects management by measuring the characteristics of management and relating them to both ownership structure and performance. It argues that the characteristics of private management that follow privatization are a key factor in determining the effects of privatization on performance. To determine the impact of privatization on the performance of the 31 firms studied, the authors performed two ratio analyses, one with unadjusted and the other with adjusted ratios. For this purpose, they undertook two regression analyses, one with panel data and the other with a cross section analysis. Two methods were used to conduct privatization of Bolivian SOEs, and the process took place in three stages. The methods were traditional, or standard, privatization and capitalization. Traditional privatization consisted of the complete transfer (assets and shares) to the private sector of companies operating in competitive markets. Capitalization involved attracting private firms to invest in and manage key SOEs. SOEs were not sold outright. Instead, private investors gained managerial control but no more than 50 percent of equity. Number 3154 2003-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-461&pub_file_name=pubR-461.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Garrón B. Carlos Gustavo Machicado Katherina Capra

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes exchange rate policies in Chile since the 1960s. A brief overview of main policies is presented. Particular attention is paid to the two episodes of fixed-exchange rate as well as the reasons why policy makers may have arrived to those decisions. The paper also examines the long Chilean tradition of using a crawling peg to preserve competitiveness and as a quick exit during times of crisis. More specifically, this paper attempts to uncover political economy factors that may have influenced decisions on exchange rate policy. Empirical evidence on the economic environment during different episodes of exchange rate management as well as the political economy factors that may haveinfluenced the options are presented. Number 3076 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-377&pub_file_name=pubR-377.pdf application/pdf José De Gregorio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper considers the main institutional features of the Uruguayan labor market and its recent evolution, with a focus on unemployment. The main policies aimed at protecting workers against unemployment are analyzed. Using administrative data from social security records, the paper studies the dynamics of the labor market. Particularly examined are inflows and outflows from the formal labor market, as well as the effect, in terms of earnings loss, of episodes out of the formal labor market. Finally, an impact evaluation of recent changes in the unemployment insurance program is presented. Number 4731 2011-10 J01 J08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36475699 application/pdf Veronica Amarante Rodrigo Arim Andres Dean

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El propósito de este trabajo es ofrecer elementos empíricos de juicio amplios sobre teorías recientes que vinculen la democracia con la desigualdad del ingreso durante el período de 1960 a 1995. En regresiones sencillas entre países se halló un vínculo monotónico entre estas dos variables al emplear cuadrados mínimos ordinarios, variables instrumentales y pruebas de Eusufzai. Dado que estos resultados no se pueden tomar como hallazgos de series temporales verdaderas, aunque teorías recientes que explican dicho vínculo sí lo son, también se emplean métodos recientes aplicados a modelos dinámicos a datos de panel. Estas técnicas permiten explicar problemas potenciales de simultaneidad y heterogeneidad. Empleando la metodología econométrica preferida, también se halla apoyo a la existencia de una curva Kuznets política. Además, parece que la desigualdad del ingreso es incondicionalmente persistente. Los resultados se verifican para dos variables sustitutivas distintas de democracia y cuando se aplica un análisis de sensibilidad. Number 4254 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-445&pub_file_name=pubWP-445.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The basic worldwide financial safety net architecture provides for a system of similar institutions: a lender of last resort, deposit insurance, and prudential regulation. In countries whose banking systems suffer seriously from negative capital positions and overbanking, such as in some Latin American markets, the safety nets and the detailed mechanisms of their operation may not be functional in reducing excessive risk taking. They offer banks strong incentives to double their bets for survival. Thus, banks` negative capital positions have been eliminated with capital injection, liquidation, and mergers. Number 4056 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-339&pub_file_name=pubWP-339.pdf application/pdf Peter M. Garber

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper proposes a new taxonomy of Sudden Stops comprised of seven categories with definitions depending on the behavior of gross and net capital flows. The incidence of different types of Sudden Stops is tracked over time and the type of Sudden Stop related to economic performance. Sudden Stops in Net Flows associated with reductions in Gross Inflows are more disruptive than those where surges in (only) Gross Outflows dominate. The paper further discusses the mechanisms that might result in Sudden Stops in Gross Flows that are not Sudden Stops in Net Flows, such that shifts in financial assets or liabilities do not require a sharp current account adjustment. Still, it is found that Sudden Stops in Gross Inflows that do not provoke a sharp contraction in Net Flows may also be disruptive, including Sudden Stops that are driven by 'other flows' -which include banking flows. The results suggest new avenues for research and future policy analysis. Number IDB-WP-430 2013-08 F30 F32 F40 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38008318 application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org Mathieu Pedemonte Pilar Tavella

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se emplea una encuesta de gran alcance entre empresas de varios países para evaluar su influencia en las políticas oficiales. Se halló que la influencia guarda una relación con empresas más grandes propiedad del Estado que tienen un alto grado de concentración de la propiedad. Por el contrario, la tenencia foránea tiene escasa importancia. También se descubrió que la medida en que se considera que las políticas gubernamentales y la legislación entorpecen el crecimiento de las empresas disminuye junto con la influencia política e, independientemente, junto con el nivel de calidad institucional del país. (Disponible en inglés) Number 4541 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-616&pub_file_name=pubWP-616.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente trabajo estudia el mercado hipotecario de viviendas en Uruguay. El principal operador del mercado es el Banco Hipotecario del Uruguay (BHU), una institución estatal que concentra más de 80% del total de los créditos. Esta institución se ha visto en dificultades financieras, lo que ha dado pie a su reforma, la cual se está procesando actualmente. Sus dificultades se deben principalmente a ingerencias políticas en decisiones de carácter técnico, a dificultades prácticas (y no legales) para ejecutar los casos morosos y a la crisis general del sistema financiero de Uruguay. El análisis de los estados contables del BHU muestra un grave descalce financiero tanto en monedas como en plazos, además de una cartera de créditos con un elevado grado de morosidad. En cuanto al sector privado, el mismo es discriminado en favor de esta institución pública en lo que tiene que ver con la posibilidad de ejecución de préstamos morosos. Se describen detalladamente las etapas legales que implica la ejecución de una hipoteca tanto para el BHU como para los bancos privados, se realiza una estimación en base a los remates judiciales de 2001 de los plazos reales que implica la ejecución de la garantía y se construyen ejemplos con los costos que implica la ejecución, según el monto de la hipoteca. El plazo promedio que le toma a los bancos privados llegar al remate judicial desde el momento en que un juzgado declara el embargo es de 601 días. El costo del proceso de ejecución está entre una cuarta parte y la mitad del valor de la hipoteca, dependiendo del monto de la misma. Finalmente se realiza utilizando modelos de variable dependiente cualitativa una estimación de las probabilidades de acceso al crédito hipotecario y a la propiedad de la vivienda. Se encontró que el número de miembros del hogar, su nivel de ingresos, la estabilidad del núcleo familiar, la edad del jefe de la familia y la condición de empleado público del mismo inciden positivamente en la probabilidad de obtener un crédito hipotecario para la vivienda. En cambio, respecto a la educación del jefe del hogar y la localización en la capital no se obtuvieron resultados firmes. Finalmente, se halló evidencia de discriminación a favor de hogares encabezados por mujeres. Este último resultado debe tomarse con cautela, debido a la probable presencia de problemas de autoselección en la muestra. Number 4358 2004-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-503&pub_file_name=pubWP-503.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Gandelman Nestor Gandelman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper establishes a basis of research on the relationships among poverty, resources distribution and assets markets operation. The main objective is to help the implementation of capital enhancing policies towards the poor. The strategy followed is to analyze three different types of impact that increasing the assets of the poor may have on social welfare. The first part of the paper evaluates the possession of different types of capital along the income distribution. This exercise can be perceived as an augmentation of income based poverty measures by incorporating the direct effect exerted by asset holdings on social welfare. The second part of the paper describes the income generating impact that asset holdings may have on poverty. It studies how the accumulation of different types of capital impact income-based poverty outcomes using logistic regressions. The third part studies the effect that increasing asset holdings of the poor has on improving poor individuals` ability to deal with adverse income shocks. This consists ofstudying the interactionsamong earnings dynamics, capital market imperfections and financial behavior, taking into account different time horizons. Long-run issues are related to the study of low frequency income fluctuations and life-cycle assets holdings using cohort analysis. Short-run issues are related to assessing the poor behavior and welfare losses in dealing with high frequency gaps between income and desired consumption. The analysis of earnings and poverty dynamics is conducted with panel data while qualitative data is used for the analysis of short-run household financial behavior. Number 3055 1999-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-357&pub_file_name=pubR-357.pdf application/pdf Marcelo Côrtes Nerí

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Entre 1980 y la primera mitad de los noventas, la intermediación financiera en Bolivia se ha desenvuelto en dos ambientes de política económica completamente opuestos: el primero correspondió a una economía donde el rol del Estado era gravitante y el segundo a una economía de mercado. Hasta agosto de 1985 se impusieron controles sobre la tasa de interés. Esta política, la hiperinflación, la mora bancaria, la "desdolarización" del año 1982 y la reducción en el crecimiento de la economía, determinaron el desmoronamiento del sistema financiero. El aumento de la emisión monetaria aceleró la inflación de tal manera que las tasas de interés reales llegaron a ser negativas, afectando directamente a la intermediación financiera. Los bancos se vieron imposibilitados de cumplir sus compromisos con la banca extranjera, por lo que perdieron el acceso a esa fuente de financiamiento. La regulación no era suficientemente clara y tampoco se cumplía. El aumento de la mora, de los gastos administrativos, y de la proporción de activos no rentables disminuyó notoriamente los volúmenes de operación de la banca. En agosto de 1985, cuando se implementa la Nueva Política Económica (NPE), se introducen una serie de cambios que transformaron al sector financiero. El objetivo inicial fue detener la hiperinflación y luego retomar el crecimiento. Las medidas en términos generales fueron: i) saneamiento fiscal; ii) liberalización del sistema financiero; iii) liberalización de los mercados de bienes y factores; y iv) apertura al comercio exterior. Number 3034 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-336&pub_file_name=pubR-336.pdf application/pdf UDAPE UDAPE

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint East Asia and Latin America have diverged in several dimensions in the past three decades. This paper compares household saving behavior in two countries in each region (Mexico, Peru, Thailand and Taiwan). We make four contributions. First, we provide the first comparisons of savings in these two regions at the micro level using synthetic cohort techniques. Second, rather than focusing only on total household saving, as is common in the literature, we disaggregate the population into education groups to determine whether there are differences in saving behavior along the distribution of income. Third, we construct forecasts of future aggregate household saving rates, based on demographic projections. Fourth, we provide evidence that allows for testing the relevance of the life cycle model for explaining the differences in saving behavior. Number 4221 2000-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-427&pub_file_name=pubWP-427.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Orazio P. Attanasio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses year-to-year variation in temperature to estimate the long-term effects of climate change on health outcomes in Mexico. Combining temperature data at the district level and three rounds of nationally representative household surveys, an individual’s health as an adult is matched with the history of heat waves from birth to adulthood. A flexible econometric model is used to identify critical health periods with respect to temperature. It is shown that exposure to higher temperatures early in life has negative consequences on adult height. Most importantly, the effects are concentrated at the times where children experience growth spurts: infancy and adolescence. The robustness of these findings is confirmed when using health outcomes derived from accidents, which are uncorrelated with early exposure to high temperatures. Number IDB-WP-481 2014-01 I12 Q41 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38577925 application/pdf Jorge Aguero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo tiene dos objetivos. En primer lugar reunimos, por primera vez, mediciones cuantitativas de la calidad de la gestión de la conducción empresarial y la estructura propietaria de 65 compañías no financieras inscritas en bolsa en Argentina, con datos del año 2003-04. A tal fin se empleó una amplia gama de fuentes gubernamentales y privadas. En síntesis, las compañías parecen tener una conducción regular en comparación con las prácticas internacionales. A su vez, la propiedad parece estar muy concentrada al nivel del mayor accionista, pero la separación del control y los derechos sobre el flujo de caja impera en menos de la mitad de las empresas de la muestra, siendo la organización piramidal el principal mecanismo para crear dicha separación. En segundo lugar, ponemos a prueba las predicciones de las recientes teorías que vinculan esas medidas con el desempeño empresarial y la política de dividendos en el período 2000-2003. En cuanto al desempeño, los resultados apuntan a un efecto considerable y robusto de nuestra medición de la conducción empresarial, tanto sobre el retorno sobre los activos como sobre el coeficiente de Tobin. Además, la separación del control y los derechos sobre el flujo de caja en el caso del mayor accionista un indicador de incentivos para la expropiación de los pequeños accionistas entorpece directamente el desempeño y también atenúa los efectos positivos de las normas de buena conducción empresarial. En cuanto a los dividendos, sólo nuestra medida de conducción empresarial parece ejercer un efecto positivo y marcado sobre la proporción de dividendos en efectivo a flujo de caja. Sin embargo, las estimaciones no resultan muy valederas ante la inclusión de algunos controles adicionales que guardan una correlación con la conducción empresarial. Number 3213 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-516&pub_file_name=pubR-516.pdf application/pdf Ricardo N. Bebczuk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study consists of two parts: I. ) Does Independence Matter? The Case of the Colombian Central Bank, andII. ) Does Independence Improve Performance? The Colombian Superintendency of Banks. Why has Colombia been a case of low output variability and moderate-to-high inflation? This paper argues that regardless of the institutional arrangement, monetary authorities have stabilized the business cycle, and inflation control has not been the only objective of monetary policy. The government-controlled Junta Monetaria (1963-1991) often ignored the advice of the Asesores, an anti-inflation group of technocrats who had no voting powers. Since 1991 the independent and powerful members of Junta Directiva have been engaged in inflation targeting but continue to place weight on output and employment stabilization in their objective function. Institutional reform has implied a slow reduction in inflation. For a faster decline, the current system requires either greater accountability (for not meeting the inflation targets) or less weight on output stabilization. Number 3039 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-341&pub_file_name=pubR-341.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Cardenas Zeinab Partow

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Aunque la región sigue estando altamente centralizada, la tendencia hacia la descentralización es bastante fuerte. No sólo se está ejecutando una parte mayor de los presupuestos oficiales generales desde el nivel subnacional, sino que la autonomía que tienen estos gobiernos para decidir cuánto dinero gastar y en qué también está aumentando. En este contexto conviene analizar los posibles efectos que puede tener el desplazamiento hacia la descentralización sobre el desempeño fiscal. Number 4113 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-368&pub_file_name=pubWP-368.pdf application/pdf Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using individual data on persons arrested in the Medellin Metropolitan Area, this paper assesses whether the change in punishment at age 18, mandated by law, has a deterrent effect on arrests. No deterrent effect was found on index, violent or property crimes, but a deterrence effect was found on non-index crimes, specifically those related to drug consumption and trafficking. The change in criminal penalties at 18 years of age does not explain future differences in human capital formation among the population that had been arrested immediately after versus immediately before reaching 18 years of age. There is no evidence that the longer length of time to recidivate on the part of individuals arrested for the first time immediately after reaching 18 implies future differences in human capital formation. These results suggest a specific deterrence effect resulting from the harsher experience while in prison of those arrested right after reaching 18. Number IDB-WP-420 2013-07 D19 J24 K14 K42 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37872092 application/pdf Arlen Guarin Carlos Medina Jorge Andres Tamayo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza el efecto de la normativa de protección del empleo sobre los flujos brutos de puestos de trabajo, en una muestra de países desarrollados y en desarrollo. Al aplicar una prueba de diferencias en diferencias, reducimos la magnitud de la pronunciada característica endógena, potencialmente grave, y omitimos problemas de variables relacionados con las regresiones de un país a otro. Esta prueba se basa en la hipótesis de que la normativa de estabilidad laboral es de naturaleza más obligatoria en algunos sectores de actividad económica que en otros, dependiendo de las características de cada sector, tales como la variación de la demanda o las sacudidas tecnológicas. A diferencia del grueso de la obra publicada, nuestro análisis indica que una normativa de estabilidad laboral más estricta desacelera los flujos brutos de puestos de trabajo, y esta tendencia es más pronunciada en sectores que requieren de una mayor flexibilidad laboral. Estos efectos ocurren dentro de la muestra de países desarrollados y en desarrollo, y son de una magnitud muy grande. Además, estos efectos son valederos independientemente de las variaciones de las medidas normativas, la cuantificación de los requisitos de flexibilidad de cada sector, las variables de control y las muestras. Number 4366 2004-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-508&pub_file_name=pubWP-508.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews and assesses some of the Productive Development Policies currently being implemented in Uruguay. Three horizontal and three vertical policies are considered in light of the market and public failures they attempt to address and minimize. Horizontal policies comprise Innovation, Industrial Promotion and Directives for Industrial and Technological Development. Vertical policies include the analysis of Forestry Law, Meat Traceability and the Sustainable Production Project in the agricultural sector. Public economics, Regulation and industrial policy, Industrial policy Number 4661 2010-03 H41 L50 O14 O25 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-130&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-130.pdf application/pdf Juan Jose Barrios Nestor Gandelman Gustavo Michelin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40992019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las autoridades bancarias deben manejar o buscar la manera de resolver la situación de los bancos débiles o insolventes sin imponerles a los consumidores o los contribuyentes los costos correspondientes. Hay que delinear dos aspectos a este respecto. En primer lugar, ¿cómo se puede estructurar la normativa bancaria de tal manera que la futura salida de los bancos débiles o insolventes resulte relativamente económica? En segundo lugar, ¿cómo pueden las autoridades resolver la situación de los bancos débiles e insolventes sin imponerles los costos correspondientes a los ahorristas o los contribuyentes? Number 4099 1997-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-361&pub_file_name=pubWP-361.pdf application/pdf George J. Benston

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Basándonos en datos de panel de Perú durante el período de 1994 a 2000, hallamos que cuando los hogares reciben dos o más servicios conjuntamente, los aumentos de asistencia social de la familia, medidos según la variación del consumo, son mayores que cuando los servicios se reciben por separado. Dicho aumento parece ser más que proporcional, según confirman las pruebas F de los coeficientes de los regresores correspondientes. De modo que hallamos que la conjunción de servicios puede contribuir con los efectos de la asistencia social. Number 4338 2004-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-489&pub_file_name=pubWP-489.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Jesko Hentschel Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En la última década la orientación de las políticas microeconómicas dio un giro extraordinario en América Latina, pero la legislación laboral prácticamente no cambió. El propósito central de este trabajo es mostrar la magnitud de este atraso y señalar que en la mayoría de países se requieren profundas reformas laborales para adecuar la legislación laboral al nuevo contexto de flexibilidad y competencia. Number 4065 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-343&pub_file_name=pubWP-343.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La provisión privada de servicios educativos ha venido representando una proporción creciente del sistema educativo peruano, especialmente durante las últimas décadas. Mientras que han existido muchas quejas respecto a las diferencias en cuanto a calidad entre las escuelas públicas y privadas, no existe una evaluación completa acerca de los diferentes impactos de estos dos tipos de proveedores en el mercado de trabajo. Este trabajo provee tal visión comprensiva al explorar las diferencias público-privadas en los retornos individuales a la educación en el Perú urbano. Los resultados muestran mayores retornos a la educación para aquellos que atendieron escuelas privadas, especialmente a nivel del secundario, que aquellos que atendieron el sistema público. No obstante, estos mayores retornos son también mayores en cuanto a la dispersión, reflejando una mayor heterogeneidad en la calidad del sistema privado. Los resultados indican que estas diferencias se han venido expandiendo en las últimas dos décadas. Number 4517 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-603&pub_file_name=pubWP-603.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Calonico Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The model presented in the paper generates important implications concerning how the allocation of resources between children varies across income groups. In the model, poor and middle-income families tend to channel their resources into a few children whereas rich families (and perhaps very poor families as well) tend to allocate resources more evenly. As a result, poor and middle- income families tend to generate more inequality relative to richer families. Number 4150 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-389&pub_file_name=pubWP-389.pdf application/pdf Momi Dahan Alejandro Gaviria

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The literature on taxes and public finance generally focuses on revenues, an easily observable and generally available variable, as the observable measure of tax policy. Still, revenues depend on many determinants other than the political will and policy objectives of the government. It is therefore important, when studying the politics of taxation, to evaluate specific changes to the tax code such as rates, bases and exemptions. With the underlying goal of exploring the political process and the determinants of tax policy, this paper compiles a novel and highly comprehensive database of tax reforms for Latin America between 1990 and 2004. The paper present a description of the database as well as the stylized facts of tax reforms in Latin America. Examples of the database’s uses are discussed, as is motivation for future research. Number IDB-WP-457 2013-12 D72 H2 K34 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38311389 application/pdf Diego Focanti Mark Hallerberg Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Although Mexico’s Conditional Cash Transfer Program Oportunidades has increased overall school enrollment, many adolescents do not attend school, especially in urban areas. This paper simulates the effects of changes in program design using a simple parametric method based on a simultaneous probability model of school attendance and child labor. The paper also provides alternative non parametric simulation results by extending Todd and Wolpin’s (2006) method to incorporate changes in working hours when attending school. The results indicate that eliminating or reducing school subsidies for primary education and increasing transfer for older students is a cost-effective way to raise overall school enrollment in urban areas. Increasing school attendance of 16-year-olds to 80 percent or more, however, would require a quadrupling of scholarships. This suggests that complementary interventions are needed. School attendance and work, Conditional cash transfers, Simulation, Oportunidades Number 4631 2009-06 I20 J22 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-680&pub_file_name=pubWP-680.pdf application/pdf Viviane Azevedo Cesar Bouillon Patricia Yanez-Pagans patriciaya@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The main objective of this study is to examine one aspect of social exclusion, the geographic isolation of individuals living in El Salvador`s rural areas and its impact on three labor market outcomes: labor force participation decision, sector of employment, and labor income. In this study, it is hypothesized that living in geographic isolation has a negative impact on rural workers` labor outcomes, that geographic isolation, through a combination of security hazards, increasing transaction and working costs, depresses individual`s labor force participation rates, increases the likelihood of working in low-productive jobs, and results in lower labor income levels. The main results of this study indicate that the degree of geographic isolation does not discourage men from working; on the contrary, men living farther away from urban and maquila jobs are more likely to work. The degree of geographic isolation determines individuals` sector allocation and their labor income as well. Women living farther away from urban areas or with less access to paved roads are highly concentrated in own-production agricultural activities, where women`s skills are rewarded less than comparable men`s skills. Own production in agriculture is a sector where women`s human capital accumulation does not influence their income labor level, though it does reward men`s skills. Through concentration into this sector, women living in geographic isolation obtain worse labor outcomes than men. Living in geographic isolation decreases women`s labor income. When working in own-account non-agricultural production, geographic isolation also has a negative impact on men`s labor income. Number 3135 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-439&pub_file_name=pubR-439.pdf application/pdf Ana Regina Vides de Andrade Anabella Lardé de Palomo Lissette Calderón Martínez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this work is to assess the changes in poverty and inequality that have taken place in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1970 to 1995, with special emphasis on the 1990s. The main distinctive characteristic of the study is that rather than focusing on individual country experiences, as most of the literature on this subject has done, we produce aggregate indicators for the whole region. Number 4090 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-357&pub_file_name=pubWP-357.pdf application/pdf Juan Luis Londoño Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43942019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan las intervenciones microeconómicas usadas para complementar las reformas del Consenso de Washington en América Latina. Se sostiene que la clase de intervenciones que se estilan actualmente en la mayoría de los países carecen de una base teórica y empírica sólida, o se están aplicando de una manera que probablemente resulte ineficaz. Se sostiene que los países de la región deberían realizar intervenciones selectivas destinadas a descubrir nuevas actividades rentables (políticas horizontales) y a crear conglomerados de innovación (políticas verticales), y se trata cómo se puede poner en práctica dicha estrategia. Tanto las políticas horizontales como las verticales son importantes, pero la combinación adecuada de ambas depende del grado de desarrollo del país. El pesimismo acerca de la capacidad de las economías latinoamericanas de emprender este conjunto de intervenciones microeconómicas más sofisticadas es una reacción exagerada a los problemas de corrupción y captura con los que se topan las políticas de sustitución de importaciones. Al menos en algunos países se sigue una estrategia cuidadosamente aplicada del tipo que se trata en este trabajo. Number 4394 2005-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-524&pub_file_name=pubWP-524.pdf application/pdf Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews recent experience with international capital flows in Latin America, and discusses the policy issues that surround them. The paper is predicated on three basic premises. Capital flows to the region are an important source of macroeconomic disturbance. Also, capital flows are very volatile. Large fluctuations in these flows are due in substantial part to factors external to Latin America. In addition, the fluctuations require a policy response. Policy should respond to sudden inflows or outflows of capital. Number 4012 1995-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-310&pub_file_name=pubWP-310.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann Leonardo Leiderman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The paper presents a new database on sovereign debt in the Americas, describing the sources used and briefly discussing several methodological issues. The paper also highlights major trends in level and composition of public debt in the Americas, discussing debt dollarization in detail. Number 4480 2006-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-577&pub_file_name=pubWP-577.pdf application/pdf Kevin Cowan Eduardo Levy Yeyati Ugo Panizza Federico Sturzenegger

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The recent financial crisis has initiated pressures for not only policy reform but also fundamental institutional fiscal reforms. This paper explores the connection between economic crises and fiscal institutional reforms in a region that has experienced plenty of both in recent years, namely Latin America. For that purpose it reviews the literature and provides five hypotheses about why, and under what circumstances, crises would promote reforms. The empirical evidence shows that debt crises make reforms more likely but banking crises on their own, if anything, reduce the pressure for fiscal institutional reforms. Political institutions are also important. If the electoral system encourages the personal vote, the country is more likely to reform. This evidence may become useful for predicting the likelihood of reforms in the developed world. Information and communications technology, Education, Experimental design, Ecuador Number 4697 2011-01 C93 I21 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-235&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-235.pdf application/pdf Mark Hallerberg Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) ¿Se han hecho menos inestables las economías latinoamericanas como resultado de la estabilización económica y las reformas estructurales puestas en práctica durante la última década? La respuesta es un sí condicionado. Las reformas han ayudado en algo, pero hay que hacer más para asegurar la estabilidad macroeconómica que se necesita para que haya un crecimiento acelerado y más equitativo a largo plazo en la región. Las reformas estructurales han ayudado a reducir la inestabilidad, pero ésta sigue siendo elevada según los parámetros internacionales y no se ha reducido en todos los países. Este trabajo ofrece un programa de políticas y sugiere aspectos de análisis en cuatro áreas claves: i) ¿Cómo se le puede dar más estabilidad a la gestión fiscal? ii) ¿Cómo puede contribuir la gestión de los mercados financieros internos a reducir la volatilidad económica? iii) ¿De qué modo se pueden gestionar los ingresos de capitales? iv) ¿Qué papel desempeña el régimen cambiario? Number 4077 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-349&pub_file_name=pubWP-349.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza la experiencia de Colombia con una política monetaria con metas inflacionarias tras el abandono del mecanismo de bandas cambiarias en 1999, así como durante dos episodios, en 2003 y 2004, que se desviaron de este comportamiento general. En esos episodios, el Banco Central intervino en el mercado cambiario de una manera relativamente considerable, para influir en la tendencia del tipo de cambio (flotación controlada). Esos episodios se analizan para extraer enseñanzas y resaltar los principales desafíos que encaran las políticas monetaria y cambiaria. A continuación se analiza la justificación de la intervención del Banco Central en el mercado cambiario colombiano. Por último, el trabajo presenta varias cuestiones que aparecen en el debate sobre la política monetaria y cambiaria de Colombia y se propone una idea del contexto político en el que se toman las decisiones de la política monetaria. Number 4426 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-539&pub_file_name=pubWP-539.pdf application/pdf Hernando Vargas H.

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Language serves two key functions. It enables communication between agents, which allows for the establishment and operation of formal and informal institutions. It also serves a less obvious function, a reassuring quality more closely related to issues linked with trust, social capital, and cultural identification. While research on the role of language as a learning process is widespread, there is no evidence on the role of language as a signal of cultural affinity. I pursue this latter avenue of research and show that subtle language affinity is positively linked with change in earnings when using English-speaking data for cities in the Golden Horseshoe area in Southern Ontario during the period 1991 to 2001. The results are robust to changes in specification, a broad number of empirical tests, and a diverse set of outcome variables. Number 4489 2006-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-586&pub_file_name=pubWP-586.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los conglomerados industriales surgen en presencia de externalidades propias de actividades específicas y de las características locales, lo que también se conoce como `externalidades de Marshall`. El argumento habitual es que tales externalidades pueden justificar una política de protección a industrias incipientes, para permitir y alentar el surgimiento de conglomerados. En este trabajo se analiza ese argumento y se muestra que pueden surgir implicaciones de políticas distintas si se aplica un modelo de conglomerados más apegado a la realidad. En particular, en vez de distorsionar los precios para promover la formación de conglomerados en actividades `avanzadas` con grandes posibilidades de formación de conglomerados, convendría más bien que los países se concentraran en promover la formación de conglomerados en sectores ya existentes y que hayan demostrado los mayores niveles de ventaja comparativa. La sustitución de importaciones no es una forma adecuada de alcanzar ese objetivo. Number 4392 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-523&pub_file_name=pubWP-523.pdf application/pdf Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan, tanto formal como empíricamente, los mecanismos de rendición de cuentas políticas que subyacen a los variables niveles de corrupción pública y de gestión gubernamental eficaz que se registran en los países. En la primera parte se desarrolla un modelo de mandante-agente en el que la buena gestión gubernamental es una función del grado al que los ciudadanos pueden hacer que los funcionarios públicos rindan cuenta de sus actos. Aunque los diseñadores de políticas pueden tener grandes incentivos para apropiarse de parte del ingreso de los ciudadanos, instituciones bien diseñadas (las que hacen aumentar tanto los flujos de información como la competitividad de alto nivel) hacen mejorar la rendición de cuentas políticas y reducen el espacio disponible para la apropiación de rentas. Las siguientes secciones del documento ponen a prueba este modelo. La presencia de mecanismos democráticos de control y un electorado cada vez mejor informado, cuantificado a través de la frecuencia de lectores de periódicos, explican considerablemente bien la distribución de prácticas corruptas y de ineficacia gubernamental en tres tipos de conjuntos de datos: una considerable muestra representativa de países a finales de los años 90 en relación con la cual hay un copioso conjunto de indicadores de gestión gubernamental desarrollado recientemente por Kaufmann y otros (1999ª); un conjunto de datos de panel correspondiente al período 1980-95 y alrededor de 100 países sobre corrupción y calidad de la gestión burocrática, basado en clasificaciones de expertos, y datos sobre la corrupción correspondiente a la sección representativa de estados de EE. UU. durante el período 1977-95. Number 4242 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-438&pub_file_name=pubWP-438.pdf application/pdf Alicia Adsera Carles Boix Mark Payne

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Analizamos la relación entre la confianza y una amplia gama de medidas relacionadas con la estructura financiera y el desarrollo. Nuestra muestra de base es una muestra representativa de 48 países y el análisis cubre el período de 1980 a 1994. Usamos un nuevo conjunto de datos del Banco Mundial que proporciona la cobertura más amplia del desarrollo y la estructura financiera a la fecha. Hallamos que la confianza guarda una relación con la profundidad y la eficiencia financieras, así como con el desarrollo del mercado bursátil. Los resultados son valederos cuando se emplea un enfoque de variables instrumentales, y son valederos igualmente ante cambios de especificación cuando se emplea un análisis formal de sensibilidad Sala-i-Martín. Number 4252 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-444&pub_file_name=pubWP-444.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org César Calderón

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El valor de las operaciones en el mercado bursátil en economías emergentes se disparó de alrededor de dos por ciento del total mundial en 1986 a 12% en 1996. Ese repunte fue acompañado por una explosión de los flujos internacionales de capitales, especialmente las entradas a los mercados bursátiles de los países en desarrollo. Más aún, aunque los flujos bursátiles fueron una parte insignificante de las entradas de capitales de los mercados emergentes hace una década, actualmente representan alrededor de 20% de las entradas de capitales privados a países en desarrollo. Number 4107 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-365&pub_file_name=pubWP-365.pdf application/pdf Ross Levine

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El trabajo revisa el desempeño de 5 programas de asistencia social para llegar a los lugares más pobres del Ecuador. Se muestra que aun sin observar la incidencia de dicho gasto a nivel provincial o cantonal, el desempeño puede estimarse utilizando información desagregada de la distribución del gasto total y de la incidencia de la pobreza al mismo nivel. Asimismo, se muestra que en algunos de dichos programas, es necesario el rediseño de sus estrategias de focalización geográfica para que puedan llegar a las áreas más pobres del país y, con ello, ayudar a reducir la desigualdad de la distribución del bienestar. En el trabajo se cuantifica cuánto de esta desigualdad se debe a la desigualdad existente entre las diversas zonas geográficas del Ecuador. Number 4596 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-646&pub_file_name=pubWP-646_esp.pdf application/pdf Marcos Robles marcosr@iadb.org Viviane Azevedo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies quality of life in urban neighborhoods in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area. First, hedonic price regressions for residential prices are augmented with neighborhood characteristics, based on a real estate database with indicators on each property’s distance to public facilities and amenities, and on a smaller survey with greater detail. Second, following recent developments in the field of happiness research, the document assesses the importance of different neighborhood characteristics on quality of life by interacting objective and subjective indicators. Indices of quality of life related to local amenities are derived for the different neighborhoods for both the hedonic regression and life satisfaction approaches. The results indicate a strong but not perfect correlation between real estate prices, income levels and neighborhood characteristics, suggesting scope for welfare-improving policy interventions. Number 3260 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-559&pub_file_name=pubR-559.pdf application/pdf Guillermo Cruces Andres Ham Martin Tetaz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en Inglés) Quienes critican la globalización afirman que la propiedad foránea de empresas privatizadas guarda relación con resultados laborales negativos posteriormente a la privatización, tales como un aumento de los despidos y una disminución de la contratación. En este trabajo se emplean nuevos datos a nivel de empresa de una muestra representativa de países para comprobar la validez de esta idea y se presentan pruebas de que los extranjeros que adquieren empresas propiedad del Estado tienden a adquirir empresas que ya habían sido mejor reestructuradas antes de su privatización. Además, en este trabajo no se halla prueba alguna de que la participación foránea en empresas privatizadas tenga alguna relación con los resultados laborales negativos. Number 4442 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-550&pub_file_name=pubWP-550.pdf application/pdf Virgilio Galdo Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En persistente debate sobre cómo mejorar los sistemas educativos, mucha gente sostiene que es preciso aumentar el salario de los docentes. En este trabajo se procura definir un método confiable para analizar esta cuestión empleando datos de encuestas de hogares de Bolivia. Number 4123 1998-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-375&pub_file_name=pubWP-375.pdf application/pdf Claudia Piras William D. Savedoff

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El propósito de este estudio es propiciar una mejor comprensión de las estructuras y los mecanismos de conducción empresarial fuera de Estados Unidos, observando una economía emergente específica: Venezuela. Primero formulamos un índice de prácticas de conducción empresarial de las compañías inscritas en bolsa, cuyos resultados generales indican que Venezuela exhibe puntajes de gestión empresarial relativamente bajos. Descubrimos, empleando esta muestra limitada, que existe una relación positiva entre este índice de conducción empresarial y sus subcomponentes y mediciones alternativas de valor (coeficiente de Tobin, relación precio/valor contable y pago de dividendos). En este entorno, caracterizado por un mercado financiero subdesarrollado, un sistema jurídico débil, una aplicación precaria de la normativa legal y una elevada concentración de la propiedad, abordamos la cuestión de si el sistema de conducción empresarial funciona en lo absoluto en Venezuela. Nos interesa especialmente estudiar las siguientes dos cuestiones, las cuales constituyen condiciones necesarias para el buen funcionamiento de cualquier sistema de conducción empresarial. En primer lugar, ¿es más probable que presidentes ejecutivos de desempeño deslucido pierdan su cargo que sus colegas de mejor desempeño? En segundo lugar, ¿le corresponde a la junta directiva la tarea de vigilar al presidente ejecutivo o simplemente cumplir una labor de asesoría? A tal fin, recabamos información detallada de 51 compañías venezolanas durante el período de 1984 a 2002. Una vez controladas características relacionadas con el presidente ejecutivo, la junta directiva, la propiedad, las empresas y los períodos abarcados, hallamos que el desempeño financiero precario hace aumentar considerablemente la probabilidad de la rotación de presidentes ejecutivos y directores. Los elementos de juicio empíricos también se corresponden con la idea de que, en Venezuela, los directores desempeñan principalmente una función de asesoría y no de vigilancia de la labor del presidente ejecutivo. Number 3215 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-517&pub_file_name=pubR-517.pdf application/pdf Urbi Garay Maximiliano González

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio procura identificar, cuantificar y analizar posibles conductas discriminatorias en el sur de Ecuador. Hay tres hallazgos principales. En primer lugar, la emigración se considera un problema social. En segundo lugar, las familias de emigrantes se consideran económicamente “irracionales”, porque no invierten las remesas que reciben en actividades productivas y sustentables, y también se las considera “irresponsables”, porque dejan a sus familias para ir en busca de mejores condiciones de vida. Por último, los hijos de los emigrantes tienen un rendimiento escolar peor que sus compañeros y viven fuera de la sociedad en general. La discriminación observada sigue un patrón cultural: las personas más allegadas a la cultura dominante tienen proporcionalmente más probabilidades de discriminar contra los emigrantes y sus familias, y las mujeres son más discriminatorias que los hombres. Number 3245 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-542&pub_file_name=pubR-542.pdf application/pdf Ximena Soruco Giorgina Piani Máximo Rossi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper shows that budget deficits account for a relatively small fraction of debt growth and that stock-flow reconciliation, which is often considered a residual entity, is one of the key determinants of debt dynamics. After having explained the importance of the stock-flow reconciliation, the paper shows that this residual entity can be partly explained by contingent liabilities and balancesheet effects. Number 4449 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-554&pub_file_name=pubWP-554.pdf application/pdf Dany Jaimovich Ugo Panizza Camil F.S. Campos

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses self-reported data on victimization, subjective well being and ideology for a panel of individuals living in six Argentine cities. While no relationship is found between happiness and victimization experiences, a correlation is documented, however, between victimization experience and changes in ideological positions. Specifically, individuals who are the victims of crime are subsequently more likely than non-victims to state that inequality is high in Argentina and that the appropriate measure to reduce crime is to become less punitive (demanding lower penalties for the same crime). Happiness, crime, beliefs Number 4645 2009-11 I31 K42 R29 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-112&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-112.pdf application/pdf Rafael di Tella Ernesto Schargrodsky

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes quantitative findings on the innovative behavior of firms in the production chains of pisco and shoe manufacture in Peru, which are served by the network of Technological Innovation Centers (CITEs), the most important technology policy instrument available in Peru. These two chains, in low and medium-technology industries, are representative of Peru’s manufacturing sector. Of particular interest is the role of technical standards as a means of technological diffusion, which is stressed in the work of the CITEs. For the pisco chain, that role involves the definition of the product itself, for which Peru is seeking a World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) denomination. In the shoe chain, the technical standard should act as a coordination mechanism that will help increase efficiency throughout the chain, which at present is often fractured. Number 4741 2011-06 O14 O25 O33 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36246649 application/pdf Juana Kuramoto

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Data sets used for evaluations in developing countries do not lend themselves to measuring the impact of training programs on the re-employment dynamics of trainees. An exception is a data set collected for an evaluation conducted in 1994 on participants in a training program targeting the unemployed in Mexico. In addition to having a control group of eligible individuals who did not participate in the program, this data set is the only one with longitudinal data covering not only the length of unemployment episodes after the training of the respondent, but also the duration of his/her employment spells. We use this data and estimate the additional weeks individuals work as the result of training, relative to what would be the case without it. Based on hazard functions, we calculate a program`s impact on both the time spent searching for a job and the time spent in that job. We show that a failure to distinguish between finding a "sustained" job versus finding "a job" can lead to misleading conclusions about a program`s effectiveness. We also illustrate the need to correct for unobserved heterogeneity across individuals in hazard functions to avoid misleading implications in an evaluation. Number 3224 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-522&pub_file_name=pubR-522.pdf application/pdf Angel Calderon Madrid

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40792019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza lo adecuado del crecimiento posterior a las reformas en América Latina durante los años 90 sobre la base de una comparación internacional y otras medidas pertinentes. Se analiza analítica y empíricamente se pone a prueba una serie de hipótesis para tratar de explicar la insatisfacción percibida con el desempeño del crecimiento. Number 4079 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-351&pub_file_name=pubWP-351.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Peter Montiel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este estudio se trata el seguro de desempleo y sus posibles aplicaciones e implicaciones para las economías latinoamericanas y caribeñas. Se sondea la experiencia actual con los programas de seguro de desempleo a través del estudio de casos específicos, y se recogen enseñanzas aprendidas en particular para la región latinoamericana y caribeña. Number 4193 2000-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-411&pub_file_name=pubWP-411.pdf application/pdf Jacqueline Mazza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El papel de los acuerdos de integración regional como factor determinante de la ubicación de la inversión extranjera directa (IED) se ha ido convirtiendo en un problema cada vez más importante para las economías en desarrollo. En América Latina, es probable que los mayores efectos guarden relación con el Acuerdo de Libre Comercio de las Américas (ALCA). Esto suscita una serie de preguntas altamente pertinentes: Por ejemplo, ¿qué efecto tendrá el ALCA en la IED proveniente de EE. UU. y Canadá destinada a países latinoamericanos? ¿Cómo afectará eso a la IED proveniente del resto del mundo? ¿Cuáles son las implicaciones para un país como México, cuyo acceso preferencial a EE. UU. puede verse menoscabado? ¿Hay que anticipar que habrá ganadores y perdedores, y, de ser así, qué es lo que determina si un país dado gana o pierde? Para responder a estas preguntas, en este trabajo analizamos las repercusiones de la integración regional de la IED e intentamos sacar conclusiones sobre los efectos probables del ALCA en los países de América Latina. Number 4342 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-491&pub_file_name=pubWP-491.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Ernesto H. Stein Christian Daude

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43472019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Inflation can “grease” the wheels of the labor market by relaxing downward wage rigidity but it can also increase uncertainty and have a negative “sand” effect. This paper studies the grease effect of inflation by looking at whether the interaction between inflation and labor market regulations affects how employment responds to changes in output. The results show that in industrial countries with highly regulated labor markets, the grease effect of inflation dominates the sand effect. In the case of developing countries, we rarely find a significant effect of inflation on labor market regulations and provide evidence indicating that this could be due to the presence of a large informal sector and limited enforcement of de jure labor market regulations. Number 4347 2003-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-495&pub_file_name=pubWP-495.pdf application/pdf Ana Maria Loboguerrero Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Latin America spends large amounts of resources on social services, yet its life expectancy and education levels are low compared to other regions with similar levels of income. A key reason is the inherent difficulty of making social services produce efficiently in reponse to demands and needs. This article shows how improving the organization of these service systems can make a significant difference in health conditions and student learning. A general framework applying the lessons of theories of the firm to the particularities of social services is developed, followed by a summary of case studies which assessed the impact of organization on performance in education (in Brazil, Venezuela and Chile), and in health (in Uruguay, Chile and the Dominican Republic). The paper shows that the relationships and rules followed by governments, service providers, and consumers can mean the difference between success and failure. It also describes a wealth of approaches, some of them with long histories, that point toward better ways of organizing social services and ultimately improving health and education in the region. This document is the first chapter of the Research Network book entitled "La organizacion marca la diferencia: Educación y salud en América Latina. " Number 3017 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-318&pub_file_name=pubR-318.pdf application/pdf William D. Savedoff

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30882019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This research project focuses on the demand side of the labor market by examining the impact which labor market regulations have had on employment creation in the English-speaking Caribbean countries of Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Although a recent IADB report on labor market reform in Latin America and the Caribbean indicates that the English-speaking Caribbean countries have a lower level of labor market inflexibility than Latin American countries, the regulatory environment in both the labor and commodity markets has had some adverse impact on employment creation in the region (IADB, 1996). Results from a study of the operations of the labor market in the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development (CGCED) suggest that these regulatory measures do have some effect on the operation of businesses in the region (see Abt Associates, 1998). Number 3088 2000-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-388&pub_file_name=pubR-388.pdf application/pdf Andrew S. Downes Nlandu Mamingi Rose-Marie Belle Antoine

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés) Dado que los esfuerzos de los países industrializados para aumentar la cantidad de ayuda exterior que proporcionan ha venido aumentando recientemente, es importante entender los factores determinantes que inciden en ese proceso. En este trabajo se analizan los factores que inciden en la ayuda extranjera entre los votantes de los países donantes. El modelo teórico, que toma en cuenta una determinación endógena de los ingresos de asistencia oficial y privada, sugiere que la eficiencia del gobierno es un factor importante a este respecto, y también vincula el ingreso personal con el apoyo a la asistencia a través de la elasticidad de la sustitución. Un análisis empírico de actitudes personales, basado en las encuestas mundiales de valores, revela que hay dos factores vinculados positivamente con la disposición de una persona de dar su apoyo a la ayuda exterior: la satisfacción con el desempeño del propio gobierno y el ingreso relativo de la persona. Además, cuando se emplean datos del país donante, hallamos que la asistencia tiene una vinculación negativa con la desigualdad, la corrupción y los impuestos. Estos resultados se corresponden estrechamente con el marco analítico. Number 4453 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-556&pub_file_name=pubWP-556.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Recent policy debates on the reform of social service delivery systems focus on the decentralization of services and the introduction of competition in order to improve the quality of services. Despite the common assumption that public sector unions oppose these reforms, their responses were diverse. This paper argues that the structure of union organization and the environment of party and union competition are fundamental for understanding union policy preferences and strategic choices regarding the reforms of social service delivery systems. Mexico and Argentina education and health reforms in the early 1990s are used to illustrate the influence of these institutional features on the policy preferences and strategic choices of public sector unions. Number 4044 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-332&pub_file_name=pubWP-332.pdf application/pdf Maria Victoria Murillo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study provides a set of tools to analyze the monetary and exchange rate policy issues in the seven countries of the Inter-American Development Bank’s Caribbean region (The Bahamas, Barbados, Jamaica, Haiti, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago). It then applies some of them to the analysis of the impact of the global turmoil on these economies in the last quarter of 2008. The paper also discusses, in light of both recent theoretical developments and key aspects of these economies, the monetary and exchange policy responses to the initial phase of the global turmoil. Caribbean countries, Global crisis, Monetary policy Number 4638 2009-10 F33 E52 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-678&pub_file_name=pubWP-678.pdf application/pdf Andre Minella Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org Nelson Souza-Sobrino

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the link between credit conditions and formalization in Brazil, as both credit and the rate of formalization have notably increased in the last decade. A firm dynamics model with endogenous formal and informal sectors is developed to quantitatively evaluate how much of the change in corporate credit and the size of the formal sector can be attributed to a reduction in the cost of financial intermediation. The model predicts that the observed reduction in intermediation costs generates an increase in the credit-to-output ratio and in the share of formal workers, in line with the data. It is found that -by affecting the corporate interest rate, the allocation of capital and the entry and exit rates- the change in credit conditions has important effects on firm size distribution and aggregate productivity. Number IDB-WP-404 2013-04 D24 E26 L11 O16 O17 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37706629 application/pdf Pablo D`Erasmo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Hay un descontento creciente con las nociones convencionales sobre la política económica. El lamentable hecho parece ser que un entorno macroeconómico estable puede ser necesario mas no suficiente para obtener los resultados deseados de los sistemas financieros liberalizados. En este trabajo se analizan varias extensiones promisorias del modelo convencional y se tratan sus implicaciones para las políticas. Number 4103 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-363&pub_file_name=pubWP-363.pdf application/pdf Michael P. Dooley

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En el Perú no existe un estudio completo y exhaustivo sobre el fenómeno de la violencia contra la vida y la propiedad. La falta de información ordenada y sistematizada que permita cuantificar su magnitud, estimar su impacto económico y evaluar el funcionamiento de las instituciones vinculadas a la prevención, control y sanción del delito, impide una mejor comprensión del problema y limita la definición e implementación de políticas adecuadas para enfrentar este tipo de violencia. El informe que se presenta a continuación consta de tres capítulos. El primero presenta un panorama de la magnitud de la violencia intencional contra la persona--número de defunciones y lesiones por violencia intencional según sexo, edad y causa externa--en Lima Metropolitana y a nivel nacional, a partir de la información disponible en el Ministerio de Salud y la Policía Nacional del Perú. Debido a que las cifras disponibles en el Perú son de mala calidad y, por lo tanto, poco confiables, han sido corregidas considerando los mejores supuestos. Los resultados, si bien intentan reflejar la realidad de la mejor manera posible, carecen de exactitud, pues la información estadística utilizada como base para todo el análisis es muy deficiente. Number 3031 1998-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-332&pub_file_name=pubR-332.pdf application/pdf Hugo Eyzaguirre

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper compares the dynamic consistency of targeting methodologies that use multidimensional welfare indicators with those based on means and proxy means tests using panel data from Mexico. To make these comparisons, an extension of the Alkire and Foster (2008) dual cutoff multidimensional poverty methodology is proposed. This extension provides a relative approach to multidimensional deprivation that ranks individuals according to an aggregate of their relative position in the distribution of a set of welfare attributes or outcomes. The extension gives particular importance to deprivations that affect smaller portions of the population, as these deprivations are especially critical in defining relative multidimensional welfare. The findings, disaggregated by geographical area (urban and rural), suggest that taking into account deprivation in multiple dimensions may lead to more dynamically consistent measures of well-being and thus more dynamically consistent targeting algorithms. Number 4709 2011-03 I32 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-250&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-250.pdf application/pdf Cesar Bouillon cesarb@iadb.org Patricia Yanez-Pagans

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint According to an influential theoretical argument, presidential systems tend to present smaller governments because the separation between those who decide the size of the fiscal purse and those who allocate it creates incentives for lower public expenditures. In practice, forms of government vary greatly, and budget institutions -the rules according to which budgets are drafted, approved, and implemented- are one (of many) drivers of such variation. This paper argues that under more hierarchical budget rules, presidential and parliamentary systems generate a similar incentive structure for the executive branch in shaping the size of government. This hypothesis is tested on a broad cross-section of countries, presidentialism is found to have a negative impact on government size only when executive discretion in the budget process is low (that is, in a context of separation of powers). However, the negative effect of presidentialism on expenditures vanishes or is even reversed when the executive`s discretion over the budget process is higher. Hence, budget institutions that impose restrictions on the legislature`s ability to amend budget proposals can make political regimes look more alike in terms of fiscal outcomes. Number IDB-WP-427 2013-08 D72 D78 H61 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38013280 application/pdf Martin Ardanaz Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper was prepared for the 1998 IDB/IIC Annual Meeting entitled: "The Employment in Latin America: What is the Problem and Should it be Addressed?" held in Cartagena, Colombia in March 1998. Despite macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms, employment problems have persisted in Latin America. The 1990s have seen a slowdown in the rate of job creation, and unemployment rates have stagnated at about 10 percent. Informal sector employment has expanded, and increases in real wages have been particularly favorable to skilled workers. Economic cycles explain fluctuations in the employment and unemployment rates, while price stabilization and structural reforms have affected the composition of labor demand and relative wages. Number 4116 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-372&pub_file_name=pubWP-372.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Mauricio Olivera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The incomplete privatization of the electric sector in Peru provides a unique scenario for evaluating the impact of public versus private provision. The results in this paper suggest that management of electricity firms by the private sector leads to a significant improvement in the quality of the provision of electricity. These improvements in quality and supply of electricity provision yield some efficiency gains in terms of the time allocation of the working labor force that can be directly linked to the use of electricity. Rural households under private provision of electricity had more opportunities to work in non-farm activities, and as a result, the share of time in non-farm activities increased, indicating both a substitution effect and a potential price effect through higher non-farm wages. The substitution effect implies a reduction of hours spent on farm activities in favor of non-farm activities, and the price effect implies that households will receive higher salaries and therefore will need to work fewer hours in total. As a result, the increase in time spent on non-farm activities was accompanied by a reduction of hours spent on farm activities and an increase in hours spent on leisure. Number 3232 2007-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-526&pub_file_name=pubR-526.pdf application/pdf Máximo Torero Lorena Alcazar Eduardo Nakasone

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a randomized controlled experiment in Costa Rica to determine whether IB use by Banco Nacional de Desarrollo`s micro and small enterprise (MSE) clients has an impact on their performance, measured in terms of productivity, increase in sales, and cost reduction. Results from the intervention group surveys indicate that Internet use is limited in MSEs` daily operations because of limited access to computers and the relatively low penetration of Internet services in employees` activities. In addition, firms have limited knowledge about the uses of the Internet as a business development tool. These results contrast with the reported benefits obtained by a small group of firms. Those benefits include reduced costs, higher sales, and better contact with customers. Number 4742 2011-08 D22 D83 O14 O38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36377365 application/pdf Ricardo Monge-Gonzalez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se trata la separación de la propiedad y el control de una muestra de 140 compañías no financieras inscritas en bolsa en Colombia durante el período de 1996 a 2002. Al desglosarse la muestra según la situación de la inscripción en bolsa y la actividad económica exhibida por las compañías, se descubre que los derechos de voto son mayores que los derechos sobre el flujo de caja, a causa de la presencia de tenencia indirecta entre compañías que pertenecen principalmente a grupos propietarios piramidales y cruzados. La muestra del estudio también incluye un conjunto importante de empresas no vinculadas. Las estadísticas de propiedad muestran una elevada concentración entre los cuatro mayores bloques de voto, lo cual es similar a los niveles observados en Europa continental, pero la mayor participación tiene derechos de voto que son, en promedio, 20% menores que el promedio observado en la región. Por último, los fondos de inversión y en fideicomiso cumplen un papel medular como contralores de última instancia de esos grupos. Number 3221 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-520&pub_file_name=pubR-520.pdf application/pdf Luis H. Gutiérrez Carlos Pombo Rodrigo Taborda

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In most countries, public borrowing by subnational governments is subjected to somerestrictions imposed by the national governments. In a recent study of 53 selectedcountries, researchers at the International Monetary Fund found that all but six countriesimposed such restrictions. 1 Public borrowing by subnational governments was altogetherprohibited in 16 countries, while 19 countries did not allow subnational governments toborrow overseas. The controls in the remaining countries vary in detail and have beenclassified by the authors of the IMF study into the broad categories of administrativecontrols, rule-based controls and cooperative controls. Number 3098 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-397&pub_file_name=pubR-397.pdf application/pdf Bhajan S. Grewal

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Unlike previous empirical studies that focus on barriers to entry in international trade, we focus on barriers to exit as measured by passport costs for a cross-section of countries. We test four common theories on the determinants of such exit barriers and find that macroeconomic and brain-drain explanations do explain high barriers to exit. However, institutional and cultural hypotheses do not appear to be empirically robust explanations of such high barriers. Our findings hold when applying instrumental variables, changes in specification, and changes in cross-country periods. Number 4476 2006-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-572&pub_file_name=pubWP-572.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Gianmarco León

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Ofrecemos elementos de juicio sobre el vínculo entre el desarrollo de la infraestructura y la distribución del ingreso durante el período de 1960 a 1995. Para ello empleamos varias variables sustitutivas, tales como vías de comunicación, ferrocarriles, telecomunicaciones y mediciones de energía. El enfoque es amplio, ya que se aplican métodos de varios países y de panel. En el último caso, aplicamos métodos de panel dinámico GMM, para poder minimizar los problemas de endogeneidad. Tanto la cantidad de infraestructura como la calidad de la misma guardan una vinculación negativa con la desigualdad del ingreso. El vínculo cuantitativo tiende a ser más fuerte en países en desarrollo que el vínculo cualitativo. Estos hallazgos se verifican cuando se emplean otros métodos econométricos y con la mayoría de las mediciones de infraestructura. . Number 4264 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-450&pub_file_name=pubWP-450.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org César Calderón

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan los factores institucionales determinantes del crecimiento económico en América Latina, aprovechando para ello investigaciones empíricas recientes que emplean mediciones subjetivas y objetivas para poner a prueba una posible explicación al estilo Northque vincula la calidad institucional con el crecimiento económico. Se presenta un marco que contribuye a entender mejor las opciones de los diseñadores de políticas y la persistencia en cuanto a las políticas de orientación interna que se aplicaron entre los años 30 y 80, sosteniendo que en el caso de América Latina, la idea de Olson (1982) de abarcar el interés se debe ampliar para cubrir no sólo el interés económico de quienes detentan poder, sino también su interés político, más o menos siguiendo la dirección de la obra de Robinson (1997). Number 4256 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-446&pub_file_name=pubWP-446.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Luisa Zanforlin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a pooled sample, this paper indicates that unions seem to affect the economic performance of Brazilian establishments, especially in terms of profitability, employment and productivity. Unions tend to reduce profitability, whereas the relationship between union density and productivity, employment and average wages seems to be concave. These performance indicators first rise with union density up to a certain density level (usually about 50 percent) and then start to decline. These results indicate that some unionism may be good for the plants` economic performance, although too much unionism may start having negative effects. Number 3157 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-464&pub_file_name=pubR-464.pdf application/pdf Naercio Menezes-Filho Helio Zylberstajn Jose Paulo Chahad Elaine Pazello

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper evaluates the degree to which Colombian firms face credit restrictions that alter their investment decisions. It analyzes whether the evolution of the financial sector during the 1990s, characterized by an intense financial liberalization, an increase in size and a deepening of the activity, reduced the credit restrictions faced by firms and stimulated investment. The paper also explores whether, on the contrary, financial restrictions intensified during the recent 1998-2000 crisis. The paper provides empirical evidence suggesting that Colombian firms are indeed restricted by external resources and are compelled to resort to internal resources. The paper demonstrates that financial liberalization and the greater credit availability reduced such restrictions, and that the financial crisis had a strong and negative effect on investment and its financing. It compares the behavior of different groups of firms: (i) firms belonging to conglomerates vs. non-conglomerates, and (ii) firms with direct foreign investment vs. domestic firms. It shows that both groups face fewer financial restrictions and that they benefited less from financial liberalization. Finally, the paper evaluates the effects of indebtedness; the results suggest firms acquire debt before investing and/or that the acquired debt in the past serves as a sign of good credit history for the acquisition of new resources. Number 3145 2002-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-450&pub_file_name=pubR-450.pdf application/pdf Maria Angelica Arbelaez Juan Jose Echavarria

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40472019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se genera una tipología de crisis de la balanza de pagos con expectativas racionales, específicamente crisis de liquidez y solvencia. La aplicación ex post de dispositivos de rescate financiero oficial de magnitud suficiente es una cura perfecta para las crisis de liquidez, pero representa un rescate ineficaz y costos de los inversionistas privados en el caso de crisis de solvencia. La anticipación de programas de rescate alienta el endeudamiento, lo cual a su vez anula toda mejora de la solvencia. Debido a las probables imperfecciones de su aplicación, los programas de rescate reales conllevan pérdidas financieras para el sector público y fácilmente pueden ser contraproducentes debido al riesgo moral. Number 4047 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-333&pub_file_name=pubWP-333.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47952019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper follows an income-based, time-dependence approach to measure social mobility in Uruguay between 1982 and 2010. The paper finds that social mobility in Uruguay is considerable and reports evidence suggesting that this mobility is greater within cohorts of groups, such as those defined by gender or region, than between groups. Entrepreneurship and self-employment are associated with greater social mobility. Number 4795 2012-07 D31 L26 O15 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36980146 application/pdf Daniel Bukstein Nestor Gandelman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42952019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Has financial liberalization improved the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated to competing uses? In this paper, we address this question using firm-level panel data from 12 developing countries. We develop a summary index of the efficiency of investment allocation that measures whether, and to what extent, investment funds are going to firms with a higher marginal return to capital. We then examine the relationship between this index and various measures of financial liberalization. The results suggest that in the majority of cases financial reform has led to an increase in the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated. Number 4295 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-467&pub_file_name=pubWP-467.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Fabio Schiantarelli Andrew Weiss

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) Unemployment is one of the most feared phenomena of our times. Few economic phenomena are reported so widely and systematically by the press, and even fewer generate such a level of discussion in public opinion. There are reasons for this level of interest. The economic costs of failing to use a fraction of the most important factor of production in a society is combined with the enormous cost that unemployed individuals suffer in their self-esteem, motivation and labor competences. Number 4126 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-377&pub_file_name=pubWP-377.pdf application/pdf Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper considers a conditional cash transfer program targeting poor households in small rural villages and studies the effects of the geographic proximity between villages on individual enrollment decisions. Exploiting variations in the treatment status across contiguous villages generated by the randomized evaluation design, the paper finds that the additional effect stemming from the density of neighboring recipients amounts to roughly one third of the direct effect of program receipt. Importantly, these spatial externalities are concentrated among children from beneficiary house- holds. This suggests that the intervention has enhanced educational aspirations by triggering social interactions among the targeted population. Number 4725 2011-12 C9 I2 J2 O2 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36577496 application/pdf Matteo Bobba matteob@iadb.org Jeremie Gignoux

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The available evidence on the effects of aid on growth is notoriously mixed. We use a novel empirical methodology, a heterogeneous panel vector-autoregression model identified through factor analysis, to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a "global" aid shock (the common component of individual country aid-to-GDP ratios). We find that the estimated cumulative resposive of exports and per capita GDP growth to a global aid shock are strongly positively correlated, and both responses are inversely related to exchange rate overvaluation measures. We interpret this evidence as consistent with the Dutch disease hypothesis. However, we also find that, in countries with less overvalued real exchange rates, exports and per capita GDP growth respond positively to a global aid shock. This evidence suggests that preventing exchange rate overvaluations may allow aid-receiving countries to avoid the Dutch disease. Aid, Common factors, Dutch Disease, Growth Panel VARs, Exchange rate overvaluation Number 4678 2010-08 F35 F43 O11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-114&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-114.pdf application/pdf Joong Shik Kang Alessandro Prati Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes quantitatively the extent to which there is overborrowing (i.e., inefficient borrowing) in a business cycle model for emerging market economies with production and an occasionally binding credit constraint. The main finding of the analysis is that overborrowing is not a robust feature of this class of model economies: it depends on the structure of the economy and its parametrization. Specifcally, underborrowing in a production economy is found with the baseline calibration, but overborrowing with more impatient agents and more volatile shocks. Endowment economies display overborrowing regardless of parameter values, but they do not allow for policy intervention when the constraint binds (in crisis times). Quantitatively, the welfare gains from implementing the constrained¬effcient allocation are always larger near crisis times than in normal ones. In production economies, they are one order of magnitude larger than in endowment economies both in crisis and normal times. This suggests that the scope for economy¬widemacro¬prudential policy interventions (e.g., prudential taxation of capital flows and capital controls) is weak in this class of models. Bailouts, Financial Frictions, Macro Prudential Policies, Overborrowing Number 4676 2010-07 E52 F37 F41 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-185&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-185.pdf application/pdf Gianluca Benigno Huigang Chen Christopher Otrok Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org Eric Young

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El objetivo de este trabajo es adquirir un mejor entendimiento del fenómeno de la popularidad de compañeros de clase durante la adolescencia y detectar señales de discriminación. En Argentina, estudiantes de secundaria seleccionan y clasifican a 10 compañeros de clase con los que les gustaría formar equipo. Se descubrió que los estudiantes físicamente atractivos y de alto rendimiento académico son altamente cotizados por sus compañeros de clase, pero sólo en planteles mixtos, lo que hace pensar que eso responde principalmente al emparejamiento. Otros rasgos, tales como el color de la piel, la nacionalidad y el nivel socioeconómico de los padres, no inciden en la popularidad entre los compañeros de clase, aunque el origen étnico y la formación académica de los padres son estadísticamente significativos en algunos casos. Da la impresión de que el tratamiento desigual basado en la raza, riqueza económica y nacionalidad que hay presente en otros entornos sociales de Argentina no se observa entre los adolescentes que asisten a la escuela. Number 3239 2007-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-539&pub_file_name=pubR-539.pdf application/pdf Víctor Elías Lucas Ronconi Julio Elías

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The paper examines the consequences of the deficiencies in the legal protection of creditors` rights and the low efficiency of judicial enforcement on the functioning of credit markets in Paraguay, as well as the solutions developed to compensate for the informality and enforcement flaws of financial contracts. Number 3062 1999-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-364&pub_file_name=pubR-364.pdf application/pdf Stéphane Straub Horacio Sosa

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este documento se analizan los resultados de una encuesta realizada a través de Internet por el Departamento de Investigación del BID con el objeto de evaluar la opinión que tienen del BID líderes políticos y empresariales de la región. En general, el BID goza de una mejor imagen que las otras organizaciones multilaterales. Su principal ventaja comparativa radica en el diseño de proyectos de servicio social (educación, salud y seguridad social). También existe la percepción clara de que el BID supera a las demás multilaterales en cuanto a proyectos de modernización del sector público y proyectos de infraestructura. Los aspectos más débiles del BID tienen que ver con su eficiencia (proceso de aprobación de préstamos muy largo) y en las iniciativas para contribuir con la disciplina macroeconómica y otras políticas. Los encuestados piensan que todas las organizaciones internacionales deben ampliar sus actividades de asistencia técnica y conocimiento no vinculadas con proyectos o préstamos. (Disponible en inglés) Number 4552 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-622&pub_file_name=pubWP-622.pdf application/pdf Marina Bassi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) This work argues that the organizational deficiencies in the bureaucratic and care structures based on the payment mechanisms utilized and the resulting generation of incentives, combined with financial restrictions, led to a sectoral restructuring in which the private sector plays a decisive role. The provision of services and the allocation of resources is defined between providers with relatively disparate capacities, where two factors are fundamental: diversity within the public sector, at both horizontal (relations between public providers and social security system providers), and vertical level (division of functions, allocation of resources and decentralization). Number 4048 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-335&pub_file_name=pubWP-335.pdf application/pdf Daniel Maceira

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El mercado laboral de la OCDE ha experimentado cambios importantes en las últimas dos décadas. El más evidente de esos cambios ha sido el aumento del número de personas en busca de empleo. En 1997 hubo más de 35 millones de personas desempleadas en la zona de la OCDE en total; alrededor de seis millones más que a mediados de los 80 y casi 25 millones más que a comienzos de los 70. Estas cifras ocultan profundas diferencias de un país a otro. En los principales países europeos, el desempleo ha aumentado considerablemente en las últimas dos décadas y en algunos de ellos, incluidos Italia, España y Francia, incrementos que en un principio fueron cíclicos han tendido a hacerse estructurales con el tiempo. Number 4137 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-382&pub_file_name=pubWP-382.pdf application/pdf Stefano Scarpetta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint It is now widely recognized that we live in a knowledge-based economy; in fact, knowledge is the driving factor behind productivity growth. The share of knowledge-intensive sectors in the world economy`s value-added and employment has been rising for a number of years. This trend is particularly pronounced in the developed countries, where by 1999 knowledge-based industries share of GDP was already above 50 percent, up from 45 percent in 1985 (OECD, 1999; OECD, 2000a). Furthermore, knowledge-driven innovation has become a decisive factor in the competitiveness of both nations and firms. Number 4283 2001-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-460&pub_file_name=pubWP-460.pdf application/pdf Alberto Melo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The 1991 Colombian Constitution strengthened the checks and balances of the political system by enhancing the role of Congress and the Constitutional Court, while somewhat limiting the powers of the President (who nonetheless remains extremely powerful even by Latin American standards). As a consequence of the larger number of relevant players, and the removal of barriers that restricted political participation, the political system has gained in terms of representation. However, political transaction costs have increased, making cooperation harder to achieve. We show that this has been typically the case in fiscal policy, where the use of rigid rules, the constitutionalization of some policies, and a reduction in legislative success rates-due to the presence of a more divided and fragmented Congress-have limited the adaptability and flexibility of policies. In contrast, in other areas of policy that were formally delegated to the technocracy, such as monetary policy and regulation of public utilities, policies have been more adaptable to economic shocks, delivering better outcomes. Number 3198 2006-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-508&pub_file_name=pubR-508.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Cardenas Roberto Junguito Mónica Pachón

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines export diversification in Ecuador in the cases of fresh cut flowers, canned tuna, palm heart, broccoli and mangoes, using the theoretical framework on “pioneers” and “discoveries” developed by Hausmann and Rodrik(2003), as well as work by Sánchez and Butler (2006) on export costs and related uncertainties. It is found that the discoveries were mainly of traditional competitive advantage, with various degrees of technology adoption. The following policy implications are derived: i) innovative mechanisms to share the costs of new discoveries must be found and intellectual property rights strengthened; ii) cooperation among industry experts needs to improve; iii) deeper collective action to promote public-private partnerships should be undertaken; iv) relevant information and knowledge should be made available to all interested parties; and v) a national-level agenda should be undertaken to increase private investment in promising sectors while promoting the creation of public goods and minimizing rent-seeking behavior. Export diversification, Ecuador Number 4672 2010-06 O13 O25 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-165&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-165.pdf application/pdf Ivan Hernandez Nathalie Cely Francisco Gonzalez Ernesto Munoz Ivan Prieto

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo intenta responder a la pregunta de cuál ha sido el efecto de la liberalización comercial y financiera sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza en América Latina. Para esto, proponemos una metodología para estimar el efecto de la liberalización económica sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza, y la aplicamos a una base de datos desarrollada a partir de 93 encuestas de hogares para 17 países Latinoamericanos, con información entre 1977 y 2000. Los dos resultados más importantes son, primero, que la liberalización comercial parece no tener efectos distinguibles sobre los cambios en la desigualdad y la pobreza en la región durante los años ochenta y noventa. Si algún efecto tiene, éste es negativo (es decir progresivo), pero no es significativo desde el punto de vista estadístico. El segundo, es que la liberalización financiera ha tenido un efecto significativo de aumento de la desigualdad y la pobreza. Number 4262 2001-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-449&pub_file_name=pubWP-449.pdf application/pdf Jere R. Behrman Nancy Birdsall Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo nos preguntamos si las prácticas de conducción empresarial al nivel de compañía en un país dado inciden o no en la valuación de mercado de esas compañías. Esta cuestión es esencial para poder evaluar los beneficios potenciales que puede reportar a las empresas un cambio de sus prácticas, aún cuando las mismas no afecten las reglas en su país. El caso chileno presenta en particular al menos tres características interesantes que hacen que su estudio sea particularmente pertinente para otras economías emergentes. En primer lugar, la estructura empresarial en Chile presenta una propiedad altamente concentrada, un uso generalizado de estructuras piramidales para separar los derechos de control del flujo de efectivo y poca claridad en la identificación de la tenencia final. En segundo lugar, hace poco se promulgaron modificaciones de las leyes que regulan el mercado de valores y las sociedades mercantiles, con la intención de mejorar la conducción empresarial en Chile. Por último, el mercado de capitales de Chile es relativamente desarrollado y tiene ya más de 20 años con una participación considerable de inversionistas institucionales. Realizamos un análisis de regresión de las mediciones del desempeño empresarial y de la política de pagos sobre los indicadores de la gestión empresarial al nivel de compañía y una serie de variables de control. Verificamos cuidadosamente, mediante una amplia comprobación de validez, que nuestros resultados no se debieran a una influencia de variables omitidas, ni a una especificación y muestras particulares. También controlamos la causalidad inversa empleando dos características de la ley que rige la actividad de las sociedades mercantiles en Chile que brindan un instrumento exógeno de algunas de las prácticas de conducción empresarial de las empresas chilenas. Hallamos que las compañías que presentan una mayor coincidencia entre los derechos sobre el flujo de caja y el control tienden a ser sistemáticamente más valoradas por el mercado. Hemos interpretado este resultado como una señal de que el mercado de capitales de Chile penaliza los posibles conflictos de intereses entre los contralores y los accionistas minoritarios. Number 3211 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-515&pub_file_name=pubR-515.pdf application/pdf Fernando Lefort Eduardo Walker

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the link between the political and institutional context and privatization sales prices. The latter serves as a measure for assessing the relative performance of the privatization goals. Whereas this link has been studied theoretically, there are very few, if any, empirical papers on this relationship. Using data from 308 privatizations around the world and applying a cross-country approach (including instrumental variables), we find that, while the overall political regime does not matter much for prices, the political processes beyond the basic regime do matter. Institutional context also produces a significant impact on prices. Both results are robust to changes in specification. Number 4439 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-549&pub_file_name=pubWP-549.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Alejandro Riaño

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study examines the impact of unions on wages and employment using data from Uruguay in a period when unions were banned (1973-1984), then legalized with tripartite bargaining (1984-1991) followed by industry-wide or firm-specific bargaining (1992-1997). The relationship between wages and employment shifted significantly across these periods as evidenced by recursive residuals, which show structural shifts in five of six industries, with the shifts coming at the same time as the regime changes. Wages are exogenous to employment before 1985, but not afterwards. Wage elasticity and the employment-output elasticity fell sharply after 1984. Unions significantly raised wages in 1985-1992, but afterwards the change in bargaining structure and increased openness led to concessions. Starting in 1985, workers in unionized industries were less likely to be laid off than workers in nonunion industries. Number 3092 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-392&pub_file_name=pubR-392.pdf application/pdf Adriana Cassoni Steven G. Allen Gaston J. Labadie

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper the issues involved in taking a broader, quality of life-based approach rather than an income-based approach to assessing welfare. Using tools provided by the economics of happiness and relying on both large-scale surveys and field research in Latin America, the paper shows how a quality of life approach can help to evaluate the welfare effects of factors ranging from health, education, and unemployment status to institutional arrangements such as inequality and opportunity. Nonetheless, directly inferring policy implications from the results is problematic because of factors including norms and expectations based on differences in the way individuals answer questions to surveys and lack of clarity in the definition of happiness. The latter allows for research comparisons across individuals and cultures but presents challenges as a basis for policymaking. Number 4598 2008-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-652&pub_file_name=pubWP-652.pdf application/pdf Carol Graham

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses microdata from Brazilian vital statistics natality and mortality data between 2000 and 2010 to estimate the impact of in-utero exposure to local violence -measured by homicide rates- on birth outcomes. Focusing on small communities, where it is more plausible that local homicide rates reflect actual exposure to violence, the analysis shows that exposure to violence during pregnancy leads to deterioration in birth outcomes: one extra homicide during the first trimester of pregnancy increases the probability of low birthweight by around 6 percent. Results are particularly pronounced among children of poorly educated mothers, implying that violence compounds the disadvantage that these children already suffer as a result of their households' lower socioeconomic status. Number IDB-WP-416 2013-06 I12 I14 J13 J88 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37872082 application/pdf Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner Marco Manacorda

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper investigates the relationship between part-time work and job satisfaction using a recent household survey from Honduras. In contrast to previous work for developed countries, this paper does not find a preference for part-time work among women. Instead, both women and men tend to prefer fulltime work, although the preference for working longer hours is stronger for men. Consistent with an interpretation of working part-time as luxury consumption, the paper finds that partnered women with children, poor women or women working in the informal sector are more likely to prefer full-time work than single women, partnered women without children, non-poor women or women working in the formal sector. These results have important implications for the design of family and child care policies in low-income countries. Job Satisfaction, Gender, Part-time work, Job Flexibility. Number 4604 2009-01 C13 J16 J28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-664&pub_file_name=pubWP-664.pdf application/pdf Florencia Lopez Boo florencial@iadb.org Lucia Madrigal lmadrigal@iadb.org Carmen Pages carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41992019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Will capital inflows boom again in Latin America as countries recover from the 1998-99 recession? And will they bust again shortly thereafter, repeating the cycle of the past? Is there something fundamentally different about the new wave of capital inflows to alter this historical pattern, a sea change in the way the region is financially linked to international capital markets? Or is nothing really new under the sun and will the new wave of capital inflows be just another tide, bringing in its wake a capital withdrawal and a financial market drought? This paper addresses these important issues, over which there is much controversy. Number 4199 2000-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-415&pub_file_name=pubWP-415.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There is widespread concern that recent increases in international food prices may have significant effects on domestic food prices and inflation. This note assesses the impact of the recent food price shock on food, non-food and consumer inflation in the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC). Vector Autoregressive Regressions (VARs) are estimated for each country to trace the effect of international food prices, the price of oil and the value of the US dollar on domestic prices. The results are then used to calculate the potential impact of higher food prices and to project the expected rise in domestic prices to the end of 2011 and beyond, given the actual increase in food prices until February 2011. It is concluded that, due to the food price surge, increases in inflation could exceed 5 percentage points in Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Honduras unless additional policy actions are taken. In some countries with flexible exchange rate systems, such as Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, currencies tend to appreciate as a response to higher food prices and as a result the impact on domestic prices is muted. However, there is no simple pattern of differences between floaters and fixers; the speed and extent of pass-through is quite heterogeneous and dependent on factors such as the importance of food in the overall inflation index and local policy measures. Number 4719 2011-04 E37 F41 F47 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36144620 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org Pilar Tavella

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper first offers a historical perspective of regulation, the early steps of Colombian industry and the way it grew. The environment was not conducive to the application of legislation that attempted to regulate monopoly or oligopoly, much less to regulate economic power. A discussion of the modern private sector follows the history. Number 4022 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-316&pub_file_name=pubWP-316.pdf application/pdf Rudolf Hommes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this paper is twofold. On one hand, we undertake an analysis of the recent evolution of capital markets and their effect on the availability of external financing in Mexico in the last two decades. On the other hand, based on a newly assembled firm-level data set on corporate governance and firm performance, we show that better firm-level corporate governance practices are linked to higher valuations, better performance and more dividends disbursed to investors. These results hold after controlling for endogeneity. Overall, the evidence shows that the Mexican legal environment poses serious problems for access to capital. Number 4466 2006-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-564&pub_file_name=pubWP-564.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se sostiene que la renuencia de los inversionistas a comprometer dinero a largo plazo en los mercados financieros latinoamericanos es producto de la experiencia. En los años 80, durante los cuales las tasas de interés reales ex ante sobre los activos financieros latinoamericanos fueron desusadamente elevadas, las tasas de interés reales ex post a menudo han sido altamente negativas. En los años 90, los diseñadores de políticas instituyeron programas de estabilización y reformas estructurales que mejoraron el entorno en el que funcionan los mercados financieros. Este trabajo, basándose en un repaso de las experiencias de la región, se demuestra que cuando se aprovechan esas oportunidades se fortalece la confianza de los inversionistas en los mercados de largo plazo. Number 4029 1996-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-320&pub_file_name=pubWP-320.pdf application/pdf Liliana Rojas-Suárez Steven R. Weisbrod

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente trabajo tiene como propósito presentar los principales resultados del análisis de la relación entre la existencia de mecanismos organizacionales tendientes a promover la transparencia y rendición de cuentas en los hospitales públicos de Costa Rica y el nivel de corrupción percibido por los profesionales en salud y los usuarios de los servicios. El estudio aporta mediciones que describen la percepción sobre la incidencia de la corrupción en los hospitales públicos, suministra cifras y análisis sobre los elementos que explican el fenómeno y analiza el impacto sobre la transparencia, rendición de cuentas y la corrupción, asociado a la implantación del Compromiso de Gestión en los hospitales públicos costarricenses. Number 3116 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-418&pub_file_name=pubR-418.pdf application/pdf James Anthony Cercone Fabio Durán-Valverde Erlend Muñoz-Vargas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se argumenta que las fallas de organización en las estructuras burocráticas y de atención, basados en los mecanismos de pagos utilizados y la resultante generación de incentivos, sumadas a restricciones financieras, llevaron a una reconversión sectorial, en la cual el sector privado juega un rol determinante. La provisión de servicios y la asignación de recursos queda entonces definida entre prestadores con capacidades relativas dispares, donde dos factores resultan fundamentales: la diversidad al interior del sector público, tanto a nivel horizontal (relaciones entre prestadores públicos y de los sistemas de seguridad social), como vertical (división de funciones, asignación de recursos y descentralización). Number 4049 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-335&pub_file_name=pubWP-335.pdf application/pdf Daniel Maceira

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) A diferencia de los inversionistas externos, los grupos de control tienen la opción de realizar transacciones basadas en información privilegiada y pueden ejercerla a costa de los inversionistas externos. En este trabajo se calculan las probabilidades de realización de transacciones informadas (ITP, por sus siglas en inglés) para el universo de acciones líquidas de siete países latinoamericanos que se negocian tanto en el país de origen como en ADR, y se aplica la ITP para dar respuesta a preguntas sobre la conducción empresarial. Se halló una heterogeneidad considerable de las ITP dentro de un entorno institucional. No obstante, se identificaron diferencias significativas de la ITP media entre gamas de volumen, países y tipos de título valor. La ITP guarda una correlación intuitivamente llamativa con algunas de las variables de protección de inversionistas en el ámbito nacional que se emplean en la obra publicada (no con todas). Se hallaron incrementos considerables de la ITP justo antes de efectuarse anuncios empresariales públicos, lo que sugiere que hay agentes informados privadamente que están explotando su privilegio cuando existe la posibilidad de obtener su mayor valor. La ITP adquiere su valor en el mercado: las compañías con mayor ITP registran un menor coeficiente de Tobin. Se concluye que el mercado parece reconocer y valorar acordemente las variables sustitutivas no observables de la probabilidad de realización de transacciones informadas (ITP) de la calidad de la conducción empresarial, tal como la heterogeneidad del comportamiento de la empresa. Number 3207 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-513&pub_file_name=pubR-513.pdf application/pdf Juan Cruces Enrique Kawamura

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Latin American economies are exposed to substantial external vulnerability. Domestic imbalances and terms of trade shocks are often exacerbated by sudden financial distress. This paper explores ways of overcoming external vulnerability, drawing lessons from a detailed comparison of the response of Chile and Australia to recent external shocks and from Australia`s historical experience. It is argued that, in order to understand sudden stops and the mechanisms to smooth them, it is useful to highlight and then draw a distinction between two dimensions of investor confidence: country-trust and currency-trust. While these two dimensions are interrelated, there are important distinctions. Lack of country-trust is a more fundamental and serious problem behind sudden stops. But lack of currency-trust may be a source of country-trust problems as well as weaken a country`s ability to deal with sudden stops. The paper further discusses steps to improve investor confidence in the medium run along these two dimensions, as well as policies to reduce the impact of country-trust and currency-trust weaknesses in the short run. Number 4363 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-507&pub_file_name=pubWP-507.pdf application/pdf Ricardo J. Caballero Kevin Cowan Jonathan Kearns

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial stability objective that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. First, we find that interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system have an asymmetric impact on financial stability: they lead to greater financial instability in response to contractionary shocks, while they act as an automatic financial stabilizer in response to expansionary shocks. Second, we find that when the policy interest rate is the only instrument, a monetary authority subject to the same constraints as private agents cannot always achieve a (constrained) efficient allocation and faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability in response to contractionary shocks. This has important implications for the role played by U. S. monetary policy in the run-up to the global financial crisis: the model suggests that the weak link in the U. S. policy framework was not the monetary policy stance after 2002, but rather the absence of an effective second policy pillar aimed at preserving financial stability. Number 4825 2013-02 E44 E52 E61 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37462291 application/pdf Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint While decreasing inequality is generally considered desirable, and there is a growing understanding of which policies do and do not promote equality, much less is known regarding why these policies are adopted to varying degrees of intensity in different times and places. To explain this variation, the constituencies for different policies under various conditions must be identified. This paper explores that question using Brazilian public opinion data on preferences regarding taxation, conditional cash transfers, pension schemes and educations. It is found that disagreement across socio-economic groups arises on how government should address inequality rather than whether it should do so. While poorer respondents support cash transfers more than the rich, the rich are more likely than the poor to support expenditures on public education. Contrary to what is commonly assumed, inequality seems to breed altruism among the rich regarding the quintessential poverty reduction scheme of conditional cash transfers. Number 4762 2012-01 H53 I28 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36643350 application/pdf Fabiana Machado fabianam@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper takes advantage of a quasi-natural experiment in Peru by which the privatized telecommunications company was required by government to randomly install and operate public pay phones in small rural towns throughout the national territory. Using a specially designed household survey for a representative sample of rural towns, it is possible to link access to telephone services with household income. It was found that, regardless of the income measurement, most characteristics of public telephone usage are positively linked with income. Remarkably, the benefits occur at both non-farm and farm income levels. Not only do the findings hold when using instrumental variables, but they are also further confirmed when using propensity scores matching methods. Number 4417 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-535&pub_file_name=pubWP-535.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Virgilio Galdo Máximo Torero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint A recent survey has shown that the major problem faced by firms in Latin American countries is difficulty in accessing financial markets. Figure 1 summarizes the findings of the Business Environment Survey on obstacles faced by firms. Number 4259 2001-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-448&pub_file_name=pubWP-448.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a comparative overview of mobility patterns in 14 Latin American countries between 1992 and 2003. Using three alternative econometric techniques on constructed pseudo-panels, the paper provides a set of estimators for the traditional notion of income mobility as well as for mobility around extreme and moderate poverty lines. The estimates suggest very high levels of time-dependent unconditional immobility for the Region. However, the introduction of socioeconomic and personal factors reduces the estimate of income immobility by around 30 percent. There are also large variations in country-specific income mobility (estimated to explain some additional 10 percent of inter-temporal income variation). Analyzing the determinants of changes in poverty incidence within cohorts revealed statistically significant roles for age, gender and, to a lesser degree, education of the household head and dwelling characteristics. Number 4557 2007-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-625&pub_file_name=pubWP-625.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Giorgina Pizzolitto José Cuesta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El estudio identifica relaciones de causalidad entre los distintos arreglos institucionales prevalecientes en cuatro hospitales de Lima Metropolitana y los actos corruptos que se presentan en ellos. Se analiza en particular dos tipos de actos corruptos: ausentismo y relación inadecuada entre el esfuerzo realizado y el “técnicamente apropiado”. Para identificar las diferencias entre los arreglos institucionales se buscó que los hospitales participantes en el estudio representen los diferentes tipos de organización del sector salud peruano. Así, el estudio incluyó dos hospitales dependientes del Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), uno de los cuales participa en el Programa de Administración de Acuerdos de Gestión, un hospital perteneciente al seguro social y una del sector privado. La evidencia empírica, en el caso del ausentismo, se recogió a través de encuestas a médicos de los cuatro hospitales participantes, y de encuestas a enfermeras y pacientes en tres de los cuatro hospitales (se exceptuó el privado). Para el tema del esfuerzo realizado y el “técnicamente apropiado”, se recogieron datos sobre todos los partos atendidos en 1998 en tres de los hospitales participantes (se excluyó uno de los hospitales del MINSA) y se utilizó un modelo probit para estimar la influencia de distintas variables institucionales sobre la probabilidad de que un parto se realice por cesárea (controlando por variables médicas). En el tema de ausentismo se encuentra que variables institucionales, tales como la condición contractual del médico, tienen una gran influencia en la magnitud del ausentismo. En el segundo caso se encuentra que variables institucionales, como el régimen de propiedad del hospital, la condición contractual del médico, y la posibilidad de programar las atenciones (si el parto es en un día laborable o no), inciden fuertemente en la decisión de realizar un parto por cesárea. Se presentan, además, algunas percepciones sobre otros tipos de corrupción, transparencia y mecanismos de control y sanción en los hospitales, además de algunas recomendaciones de política al respecto. Number 3083 1999-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-383&pub_file_name=pubR-383.pdf application/pdf Lorena Alcazar Raul Andrade

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the separation of ownership and control for an average of 140 listed non-financial corporations in Colombia during the 1996-2002 period. Breaking down the sample according to corporations` listing status and economic activity shows that voting rights are greater than cash flow rights because of the presence of indirect ownership across firms that belong mainly to pyramidal and cross-share holdings. The study sample also includes an important set of non-affiliated firms. Ownership statistics show high concentration among the four largest voting blocks, which is similar to the levels observed in continental Europe, but the largest stake has voting rights that are on average 20 percent lower than the average observed in that region. Finally, holding investment and trust funds play a central role as the holdings` ultimate controllers. Number 3220 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-520&pub_file_name=pubR-520.pdf application/pdf Luis H. Gutiérrez Carlos Pombo Rodrigo Taborda

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The authors present matching estimators of the impact on earnings for individuals who attended public and private job training programs in Colombia. They estimate propensity scores by controlling for the variety of personal and socioeconomic background variables of those individuals. The effect of training, measured by the mean impact of the treatment on the treated, shows that: (i) for youths, no institution has a significant impact in the short or long run except private institutions for males; the scope of the data, however, limits the reliability of the result; (ii) for adult males, neither SENA nor the other public institutions have a significant impact in the short or long run; (iii) for SENA-trained adult females there are positive but not significant impacts in the short run and greater and close to significant effects in the long run. All other public institutions have a higher impact that is significant in the long-run; (iv) for adults trained at private institutions there are large and significant effects in both the short and long run, but for adult males in the short run the effects are smaller and only barely significant. In addition, neither short nor long courses provided by SENA seem to have a significant impact on earnings. In general, females benefit more from both short and long courses than males. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis shows that under the assumption of direct unitary costs equal to SENA, private institutions are more profitable than public institutions, which are in turn more profitable than SENA. Number 3177 2005-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-484&pub_file_name=pubR-484.pdf application/pdf Carlos Medina Jairo Núñez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, a new policy paradigm has emerged in which old-fashioned policies such as capital controls and other government distortions have become part of the standard policy tool kit (so called macro- prudential policies). On the wave of this seemingly unanimous policy consensus, a new strand of theoretical literature contends that capital controls are welfare enhancing and can be justified rigorously because of second-best considerations. Within the same theoretical framework adopted in this fast-growing literature, this paper shows that a credible commitment to support the exchange rate in crisis times always welfare-dominates prudential capital controls, as it can achieve unconstrained allocation. Number IDB-WP-393 2013-03 E52 F37 F41 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37662164 application/pdf Gianluca Benigno Huigang Chen Christopher Otrok Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org Eric Young

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the emergence of three new successful export activities in Argentina: biotechnology applied to human health, blueberries and chocolate confections. The main interest lies in ascertaining why these sectors/products were targeted, on which previously accumulated capabilities they were built upon, and what type of hurdles they faced and how they were overcome. In the absence of government support for discovery, these new exports emerged because the pioneers could introduce permanent or dynamic barriers to entry to compensate for the knowledge externalities they generated. When they could only introduce temporary barriers to entry, laissez faire investment in experimentation was suboptimally small. These new exports emerged in sectors where there were entrepreneurs with superior planning and networking skills and/or there were larger firms that could self-provide the required public goods and solve coordination failures by themselves. Number 3254 2008-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-548&pub_file_name=pubR-548.pdf application/pdf Gabriel Sánchez Ricardo Rozemberg Inés Butler Hernán Rufo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study analyzes the impact of ethnic-based residential segregation on income and education outcomes in Bolivian cities. Three results stand out in the analysis. First, we find significant and negative segregation effects on income generation in both across-city and intra-city comparisons. Second, we find individual and neighborhood-level interactions between ethnicity and segregation to be significantly and negatively correlated with income and schooling attainment. Finally, we find positive social capital effects for recent migrants and young workers and negative human capital effects for non-migrants and older workers. We attempt to control for selection biases with three instruments for residential segregation. We also include potential intergenerational determinants of income and schooling through expanded measures of parental human and social capital. Number 3136 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-440&pub_file_name=pubR-440.pdf application/pdf George Gray-Molina Wilson Jimenez Ernesto Perez de Rada

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In Guatemala there are substantial and growing imbalances in the housing market; at the same time, financial markets remain shallow and underdeveloped. The analytical framework applied in this paper starts by identifying the types of market failures responsible for the underdevelopment of the housing finance system. The working hypothesis is that there is a correlation between the nature and scope of market failures, and the kind of public interventions actually implemented. Evidence collected points to a rejection of the policy adequacy hypothesis. Nevertheless, it is encouraging that solutions have begun to emerge as economic agents learn to overcome market failures; these experiences are reinterpreted as “natural experiments” showing what could happen if market failures could be fixed at a large scale through appropriate government policy. Building on this framework, the paper proposes guidelines for the design and implementation of housing finance policy in Guatemala. Number 4750 2011-09 G10 G18 G21 G22 G28 H54 H81 R31 R38 R51 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36383826 application/pdf Mario Cuevas Sigfrido Lee Maria Isabel Bonilla

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se emplea un conjunto de encuestas de hogares abundantes en datos para investigar las diferencias salariales entre el sector público y el sector privado en 17 países latinoamericanos. También se estudia cómo el sector del empleo incide en la diferencia salarial entre los sexos. Se descubren primas muy pequeñas para los trabajadores y primas considerables y significativas en el caso de las trabajadoras. También se halla que, en promedio, las mujeres latinoamericanas ganan 30% menos que los hombres de igual destreza y que aproximadamente una tercera parte de esta brecha entre los sexos es producto de la falta de acceso al empleo en el sector formal. Number 4230 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-431&pub_file_name=pubWP-431.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world. While vulnerabilities remain and external shocks have been and remain critical, the region enjoys many strengths and has developed a growing arsenal of policy tools. What is the balance of vulnerabilities versus strengths? How can countries address the existing vulnerabilities? How can they perfect their policy tools and minimize the effect of external crises? Number 4766 2012-03 E52 E62 F34 N16 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36727120 application/pdf Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La característica notable del comportamiento de la tasa de ahorro privado en Venezuela es su tendencia secular a reducirse desde los elevados niveles experimentados durante los años setenta a los muy reducidos de los noventa. Adicionalmente a esta tendencia al deterioro, habría que añadir su alta volatilidad. Las razones que explican este resultado no sólo están referidas a los sucesivos shocks, externos e internos, que han afectado a Venezuela, sino también a la forma peculiar como se ha gestionado la política económica para enfrentar estos shocks. Así, a la alta variabilidad del ingreso generada por los impactos sorpresivos de los acontecimientos externos, se deben añadir, especialmente después del inicio de la crisis de la deuda externa en 1983, los shocks de política económica, y más específicamente el uso del tipo de cambio, como mecanismo fundamental para ajustar las finanzas públicas. Number 3021 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-322&pub_file_name=pubR-322.pdf application/pdf Luis Zambrano Sequín Matías Riutort Rafael Muñoz Juan Carlos Guevara

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There are two similarities between the utility privatization programs of the UK and Latin America. Privatization has largely consisted of the transfer of industry-dominant, state companies into the private sector, often with statutory monopoly powers. In addition, the extensive use of price cap rather than rate-of-return regulation. A difference is that, arguably, the UK tried to create a fair but flexible regulatory policy by establishing a set of individual industry regulators somewhat independent from the government with considerable discretionary powers. Number 4038 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-329&pub_file_name=pubWP-329.pdf application/pdf Andrew Powell

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews and contributes to the policy debate on the issue of saving in Latin America, presenting an alternative perspective on the relationship between saving and growth, saving and inflation stabilization and structural reform, and saving and capital flows. Number 4070 1997-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-346&pub_file_name=pubWP-346.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates the effect of training quality on labor-market earnings using a Peruvian non-experimental training program, PROJOVEN, which targets disadvantaged youths aged 16 to 24 years. The identification of causal effects is possible because of two attractive features in the data. First, the selection of training courses is based on public bidding processes that assign standardized scores to multiple proxies for quality. Second, the program`s evaluation framework allows for the identification and comparison of individuals in the treatment and comparison groups six, 12, and 18 months after the program. Using difference-in-differences kernel matching methods, we find that individuals attending high-quality training courses have higher average and marginal treatment impacts. The external validity of our estimates was assessed by using five different calls of this program over a nine-year period. Number 4451 2006-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-555&pub_file_name=pubWP-555.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org José Galdo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The first five years of the flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting regime in Chile have shown positive results. Inflation is under control, the exchange rate has moved with the external conditions, monetary policy has been countercyclical and the cycle has apparently smoothened. Even though exchange rate volatility has increased, as expected with a flexible regime, this has also happened in other countries with similar characteristics. This increased volatility has lower extreme real exchange rate valuations than in the past, as is also seen in other countries with alternative exchange rate regimes. Important progress in derivatives market deepening, as well in a lower pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation, have contributed to increasing the credibility and feasibility of the current policy framework, while minimizing potential costs derived from that framework. Number 4427 2005-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-540&pub_file_name=pubWP-540.pdf application/pdf José De Gregorio Andrea Tokman Rodrigo Valdés

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Three alternative specifications of an investment equation have been tested using panel data of Uruguayan firms: a traditional accelerator model of investment, an error-correction version of the accelerator model and an Euler equation for the capital stock. These models of investment were used to test for the existence of financial constraints in the investment decision process. Our estimates confirm the existence of financial restrictions on investment decisions of Uruguayan firms in the period under consideration (1997-2000). We explored the effect on firms’ ability to finance investment of two attributes: size and foreign ownership. Regarding size, our results suggest that small firms face greater constraints in financing their desired levels of investment. We also explored whether foreign owned firms suffered less from financial restrictions than national firms. Our results leave the issue unresolved. Lastly, our estimates suggest a general increase in the severity of financial restrictions following the 1999-2000 crisis. In particular, smaller firms were most affected. Number 3155 2002-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-462&pub_file_name=pubR-462.pdf application/pdf Julio de Brun Eduardo Barbieri Nestor Gandelman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes capital inflow surges in emerging economies from 1980 to 2005. Estimated probit models are used, which discriminate well between surges associated with banking crises or recessions, and those surges that end without such events. The results indicate that the composition of inflows and the extent of financial reform are significant determinants of outcomes. Estimated models are applied to the Latin American post-2005 inflow surge and find relatively high estimated probabilities for banking crises and recessions. This suggests that recent inflow surges characterized by high portfolio and banking inflows are a potential cause for concern and that the results constitute a prima facie case for macro prudential interventions. Number 4782 2012-06 C25 E44 F34 G01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36937619 application/pdf Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org Pilar Tavella

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Financial frictions are a central element of most of the models that the literature on emerging markets crises has proposed for explaining the Sudden Stop phenomenon. To date, few studies have aimed to examine the quantitative implications of these models and to integrate them with an equilibrium business cycle framework for emerging economies. This paper surveys these studies, viewing them as ability-to-pay and willingness-to-pay variations of a framework that adds occasionally binding borrowing constraints to the small open economy real-business-cycle model. A common feature of the different models is that agents factor in the risk of future Sudden Stops in their optimal plans, so that equilibrium allocations and prices are distorted even when credit constraints do not bind. Sudden Stops are a property of the unique, flexible-price competitive equilibrium of these models that occurs in a particular region of the state space in which negative shocks make borrowing constraints binding. The resulting nonlinear effects imply that solving the models requires non-linear numerical methods, which are described in the survey. The results show that the models can yield relatively infrequent Sudden Stops with large current account reversals and deep recessions nested within smoother business cycles. Still, research in this area is at an early stage, and this survey aims to stimulate further work. Number 4307 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-473&pub_file_name=pubWP-473.pdf application/pdf Cristina Arellano Enrique Mendoza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper we ask whether corporate governance practices at the firm level within a single country affect these firms` market valuation. This question is crucial in assessing the potential benefits for firms of changing their own practices, even though they cannot affect their country`s rules. In particular, the Chilean case presents at least three interesting features that make its study especially relevant for other emerging economies. First, the Chilean corporate structure presents highly concentrated ownership, widespread use of pyramid structures to separate cash from control rights and opaque ultimate ownership identification. Second, an amendment to the Securities Market Law and the Corporations Law was recently passed with the intention of improving improve corporate governance in Chile. Finally, the Chilean capital market is relatively developed, with more than two decades of substantial participation by institutional investors. We perform regression analysis of measures of firm performance and payout policy on corporate governance indicators at the firm level and a series of control variables. We carefully check that our results are not due to omitted variable bias or to particular specification and samples through an extensive robustness check. We also control for reverse causality using two features of Chilean Corporations Law that provide an exogenous instrument for some of the corporate governance practices of Chilean firms. We find that firms that present higher coincidence between cash and control rights tend to be consistently more valued by the market. We interpret this result as an indication that potential conflicts of interest between controllers and minority shareholders are penalized by the Chilean capital market. Number 3210 2005-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-515&pub_file_name=pubR-515.pdf application/pdf Fernando Lefort Eduardo Walker

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Esta publicación contiene los resultados de la investigación realizada por la Red de Centros de Investigación del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo sobre magnitud y costos de la violencia en América Latina. Seis estudios de caso, llevados a cabo con un enfoque interdisciplinario y riguroso, conducen a conclusiones sólidas sobre la magnitud y la dinámica de la violencia en esta región. Estas investigaciones, conjuntamente con el análisis de otros trabajos, permiten inferir también cuáles pueden ser las intervenciones de política con más alto potencial para enfrentar con éxito este problema. Number 3074 1999-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-375&pub_file_name=pubR-375.pdf application/pdf Juan Luis Londoño Rodrigo Guerrero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In the last three decades, gross national saving in the UK has fluctuated widely. Swings in components of national savings have of course been even more marked, since there are sound economic reasons to expect changes in one component (e. g. , private saving) to be at least partially offset by changes in another (e. g. , public saving). Moreover, since the start of the 1980s, national savings behaviour is characterised not merely by fluctuations but by trend decline, the recent upturn notwithstanding. In this paper we explore changes in UK saving and its components, examine theoretical and empirical explanations, discuss implications for policy design, and draw lessons for Latin America. Number 3032 1998-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-334&pub_file_name=pubR-334.pdf application/pdf David Begg Stephany Griffith-Jones

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In Brazil, there exists a two-tiered system of healthcare access. Those with sufficient means have access to a private system of healthcare that provides quality treatment on demand, while the remainder of the country relies on an overburdened system of public clinics and hospitals. Household survey data are used to determine which socio-demographic groups rely most on this public healthcare system. Current demographic trends suggest that the public healthcare infrastructure will become more and more heavily used in the coming decades. A stylized model of healthcare choice is estimated, and its parameters are used to conduct counterfactual simulations of the welfare implications of this increased congestion, and of policies to offset it, like private healthcare subsidies. Number 3132 2001-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-436&pub_file_name=pubR-436.pdf application/pdf Denisard Alves Christopher Timmins

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) This study examines the labor situation in Peru and finds evidence of a profound transformation in the labor market during the 1990s. First, the creation of jobs in the private sector speeded up enormously from 1992. However, the simultaneous strong growth of labor supply meant that the unemployment rate did not fall substantially during this period. Second, although the unemployment rates of the 1990s were higher than in the second half of the 1980s, the labor market reemployed displaced workers more rapidly. Third, the wages of individuals with similar characteristics have tended to level out among sectors and activities. Also during the 1990s the hiring of women and young workers increased in the formal sector leading to a decline in the differences in the composition of manpower between the sectors traditionally classified as informal, and the formal sector. Overall, employment growth, the increased capacity to reemploy displaced workers, and the fall in the formality premium suggest a more efficient performance in the labor market. However, this transformation is not without difficulties which generate new challenges for labor, education and economic policymakers in Peru. Number 4166 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-397&pub_file_name=pubWP-397.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Latin America`s enormous endowment of natural resources impacts many countries of the region. Economic liberalization in several countries was followed by rapid growth of foreign investment and exports of natural resource-intensive products. Growth of labor-intensive manufacturing industries was much more modest. What does increased reliance upon natural resource-based industries mean for development prospects, and for the distribution of income? Number 4128 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-378&pub_file_name=pubWP-378.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo empleamos un enfoque de panel para estudiar el crecimiento de la población en las principales ciudades del mundo. Hallamos que las principales ciudades crecen con mayor rapidez en economías relativamente atrasadas y en economías más inestables y de crecimiento más rápido. También hallamos que los efectos de las políticas del comercio sobre el crecimiento de ciudades importantes depende considerablemente de la geografía. Mientras que el crecimiento demográfico en importantes ciudades ubicadas en puertos o cerca de ellos no cambia tras un repunte de los flujos de comercio, el crecimiento demográfico en ciudades importantes tierra adentro sí tiende a desacelerarse luego del mismo hecho. Por otro lado, no hallamos efecto alguno del régimen político sobre el crecimiento demográfico de ciudades importantes. Por último, hallamos algunos elementos de prueba de que, si todo lo demás se mantiene igual, las ciudades de mayor tamaño tienden a crecer a un menor ritmo. Number 4198 2000-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-414&pub_file_name=pubWP-414.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the evolution of gender differences in school attendance and attainment in Latin America and the Caribbean, for both adults who left the educational system and children in school. For individuals 21 years old and above the paper uses a cohort analysis of school attainment. The results indicate that the schooling gap has closed for the cohort born at the end of the 1960s. Since then, the gap has reversed such that within the cohort born in 1980, females have, on average, ¼ of a schooling year more than males. During the four decades of birth cohorts of our analysis (1940-1980) the gender gap in attainment has moved in favor of females at a pace of 0. 27 years of schooling per decade. A decomposition exercise suggests that the changes in the schooling gap are mainly explained by the educational attainment of females at the higher levels, rather than improvements in the early years of education. An analysis of attendance and attainment among girls and boys between 6 and 18, for Bolivia, Guatemala, Mexico and Peru (the countries that have not closed the gap in adult schooling attainment) reveals noticeable gender differences, favoring boys, only among older children of the lowest income quintiles and indigenous ethnicity. Number 4510 2007-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-600&pub_file_name=pubWP-600.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Sebastian Galiani Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Claudia Piras

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Institutional and legal differences between countries increase entry costs and reduce the ability of banks to expand abroad. We use bilateral foreign banking data for 176 countries to estimate a gravity model in which bilateral cross-border banking activity is explained, in addition to standard variables, by legal and institutional differences. We find that foreign banking is negatively affected by absolute differences in the legal setup and in basic institutions between source and host countries. Differences in the legal origin, for example, reduce bilateral participation in the banking system by nearly 11 percent. Additionally we do not find strong evidence suggesting asymmetries in adapting to “better” or “worse” institutional/legal environments. Number 4313 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-477&pub_file_name=pubWP-477.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco César Manuel Serra

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a new data set to study household responses to adverse income shocks in seven Latin American countries. The results show (i) that households respond to income shocks mainly by increasing their labor force participation, selling assets, and cutting back on human capital investments, (ii) that poor households are the most likely to be affected by adverse income shocks, and (iii) that lower-middle-class households are more likely to cut back on human capital investments and move abroad when faced with an adverse income shock. Taken together, these results offer ample justification for publicly funded safety nets that target the poor. Number 4273 2001-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-455&pub_file_name=pubWP-455.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La adopción de programas de empleo de emergencia y capacitación a corto plazo para dar apoyo a los ingresos de la población afectada por episodios de inestabilidad económica desde 1995 revela el fracaso de los mecanismos tradicionales de apoyo al ingreso basados en la legislación laboral en la región. Esos programas de emergencia no son adicionales a lo que hay y transitorios, sino que más bien se han vuelto componentes permanentes de las políticas sociales. Como tales, presentan a los diseñadores de políticas la oportunidad de construir un mecanismo más amplio y mejor diseñado para proteger a los trabajadores contra los efectos de la inestabilidad macroeconómica. El trabajo aboga por un sistema de apoyo al ingreso centrado en el seguro de desempleo, complementado con mecanismos adicionales, para proporcionar un apoyo eficaz al ingreso de los trabajadores durante las épocas normales; también se tratan los cambios que se necesitan en programas de emergencia para hacerlos funcionar como parte de ese sistema. Number 4220 2000-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-425&pub_file_name=pubWP-425.pdf application/pdf Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43952019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In spite of deep structural reforms, Central American countries have failed to experience rapid and stable growth in recent years. This paper explores whether and to what extent we can consider lack of innovation and technology adoption as a main reason for this disappointing experience. The paper starts by documenting that technology adoption and innovation are indeed very low, and then turns to a more qualitative and eclectic analysis drawing on interviews and case studies to try to understand the reasons for this. Four hypotheses are explored: weak intellectual property rights, low competition, lack of finance and low levels of education. The conclusion that emerges is that the last two of these four hypotheses may be especially relevant for the region. The paper concludes with several policy recommendations. Number 4395 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-525&pub_file_name=pubWP-525.pdf application/pdf Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores how different levels of knowledge correlate with desirable preventive and curative practices against malaria in Honduras. The paper additionally analyzes “information externalities” associated with non-specific malaria health services, communicational campaigns and organized community networks. Using the 2004 ENSEMAH survey, the analysis tests for statistical differences in the means of behavioral variables and an index of household malaria knowledge, finding that the adoption of desirable prevention and treatment behaviors correlates with proficient levels of knowledge. Differences in behavior across groups with distinctive levels of proficiency were found statistically significant. Also, while information externalities exist, they nonetheless do not deliver adequate levels of knowledge proficiency to induce desirable anti-malaria behavior. Malaria, Information, Externalities, Honduras Number 4617 2009-02 D19 H49 H75 I19 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-670&pub_file_name=pubWP-670.pdf application/pdf Maria Victoria Aviles Jose Cuesta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo procura extraer enseñanzas de la experiencia de las reformas de los sistemas de pensiones ya realizadas en Argentina, Chile, Colombia y Perú. Estas reformas han implantado las pensiones basadas en la capitalización individual, administradas privadamente bajo mandato, regulación y garantías estatales, y se han inspirado en la reforma chilena. Dada la excelente disponibilidad internacional de referencias sobre la experiencia chilena, este trabajo se concentrará sobre todo en las cuestiones relativas al diseño e implantación de nuevas reformas. Es preciso advertir las dificultades y limitaciones que presenta el contrastar desarrollos reales y ya consolidados con esquemas incipientes y en buena parte apenas expresados como normas: ha sido frecuente legislar materias que luego no se cumplen; las normas a veces representan compromisos ambiguos que solo más tarde se interpretan efectivamente, y generan incentivos a los que se ha respondido en formas diversas y variables en el tiempo. Number 4041 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-330&pub_file_name=pubWP-330.pdf application/pdf Ulpiano Ayala

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The paper reviews the case for a strong multilateral response to the global crisis in emerging markets (EMs). It discusses modalities and feasibility of intervention and its associated risks, depending on country circumstances of fiscal space and liquidity needs. The specific role of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) in ensuring the development effectiveness of the fiscal response is also discussed. The paper concludes by highlighting the international financial architecture issues raised by the global crisis that cannot be addressed immediately but will need to be dealt with once the current crisis has been tamed. Global Crisis, Latin America and Caribbean, Multilateral Development Banks, Policy Responses. Number 4629 2009-06 F3 F33 F53 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-683&pub_file_name=pubWP-683.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernandez-Arias Andrew Powell Alessandro Rebucci alessandror@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo analiza la manera en que la exclusión social ayuda a fomentar la violencia en América Latina. Las comunidades socialmente excluidas no pueden depender de las instituciones concebidas para protegerlas y la violencia se convierte en un instrumento mediante el cual alcanzar justicia, seguridad y provecho económico. Cuando se limitan los métodos convencionales de obtener un mayor nivel social, más ingresos e influencia, algunas personas recurren a actos de violencia. En este trabajo se trata la manera en que la exclusión social y la violencia interactúan en un círculo vicioso que deja a los socialmente excluidos en un entorno sumamente hostil en el que la línea divisoria entre la legalidad y la ilegalidad a menudo se desdibuja. El uso de la violencia por parte de esta minoría afecta las vidas de la mayoría de la gente excluida que no recurre a la violencia. En este trabajo también se analiza la relación entre la violencia y las pandillas juveniles y los niños de la calle. (Disponible en inglés) Number 4535 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-613&pub_file_name=pubWP-613.pdf application/pdf Heather Berkman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-bk-1242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This book looks at the potential and the limits of policies to promote entrepreneurship as an important vehicle for social mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as steps to remove the constrains that hamper entrepreneurship. Number IDB-BK-124 2014-03 E21 I31 O15 Z13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38679817 application/pdf Eduardo Lora Francesca Castellani

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El uso de indicadores de la distribución del ingreso en la obra publicada sobre Economía ha venido aumentado considerablemente en los últimos años. En este trabajo se emplean encuestas de hogares de 18 países de América Latina y el Caribe, para adoptar una perspectiva más amplia en cuanto al uso de estos indicadores y se analiza lo que hay detrás de los números y qué información proporcionan. He aquí lo que se ha descubierto: a) la manera en que se clasifican los países de acuerdo a la desigualdad medida de un modo convencional es, en gran parte, una ilusión creada por las diferencias en las características de los datos y en las maneras específicas en que se manejan esos datos; b) nuestras ideas sobre los efectos de la desigualdad del crecimiento económico también son producto de las diferencias de calidad y cobertura de las encuestas de hogares y del modo en que se manejan los datos; c) las encuestas de hogares estándar en América Latina y el Caribe no pueden percibir el ingreso de los segmentos más ricos de la sociedad, así que lo más probable es que la desigualdad que se puede cuantificar no sea más que una gran subestimación. La conclusión principal es que detrás de cada cifra se oculta una circunstancia importante. Esta circunstancia influye en el juicio que se hace sobre la desigualdad de países y sobre la relación entre la desigualdad y otros indicadores del desarrollo, pero rara vez se menciona o se está al tanto de ella. Quizá otras estadísticas que se emplean normalmente en Economía también tengan sus propia circunstancias interesantes y puede que valga la pena tratar de discernir cuáles serán. Number 4189 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-409&pub_file_name=pubWP-409.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Marianne Hilgert

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This report shows evidence on determinants of health status for urban adults and their effects on productivity. Accurate estimation of the effect of health on wages is always difficult to obtain due to endogeneity and measurement error of the health indicators that are available in household surveys for developing countries. The health measure used here is the number of days ill, which involves endogeneity and reporting error problems that are controlled for. The use of household sanitary infrastructure and proxies for health prices, measured by the distance to the health center and the average waiting time for attention at the district level, enabled the construction of an instrument variable estimator for the effects of health on wages. The instruments are statistically significant for all urban individuals. Schooling effects on health are positive and strong for urban males, and the positive effect of schooling on health is clearly increasing with age. The effect of health on wages is positive and robust, especially for urban males. The larger effects of an additional day sick are found among older self-employed males (-4. 3%) and those at the bottom of the hourly earnings distribution (-3. 8%), and those in the private sector (-1. 8%). These results suggest that health has a stronger impact on the wages of those jobs where productivity and health are closely connected, as in the private sector and the self-employed. The inconclusive results among females indicate the need to work on the development of a model that better expresses the way in which women fit into the labor market. Number 3050 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-352&pub_file_name=pubR-352.pdf application/pdf Edmundo Murrugarra Martin Valdivia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using quarterly (annual) information on consumption and prices of non-tradable goods for the period 1980-2002 (1981-2001), this paper estimates the elasticity of substitution in demand for non-tradable goods in Costa Rica. The unit root and cointegration properties of the time series are tested, and then controlling for exogenous variables, the elasticity of substitution belonging to the interval [1. 46, 2. 14] ([ 0. 22, 0. 28]) is estimated. These results are statistically robust. Number 3183 2004-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-489&pub_file_name=pubR-489.pdf application/pdf Gilberto E. Arce Edgar Robles C.

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se revisa la obra publicada recientemente sobre la viabilidad fiscal, con acento especial en los países de mercados emergentes. Se tratan los elementos principales que distinguen a los países de mercados emergentes de los países industrializados, y luego se analiza la manera en que los modelos probabilísticos pueden ayudar a evaluar la viabilidad fiscal en un entorno incierto. En base a este análisis, el trabajo emplea a Ecuador para ilustrar una aplicación del modelo probabilístico, y del marco para evaluar los efectos de las sacudidas del financiamiento de la cuenta corriente sobre la viabilidad. Number 4372 2004-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-511&pub_file_name=pubWP-511.pdf application/pdf Carlos Díaz Alvarado Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper consists of four case studies of the emergence of four successful export activities in Uruguay: computer software, forest products, caviar and sturgeon meat, and animal vaccines. Each case study discusses how companies, associations, and governments at various levels have addressed market failures and facilitated the provision of public goods necessary for each activity. The case studies additionally profile first movers in each activity and describe the positive externalities they provide to imitators, particularly diffusion of export knowledge. Also included in each case study is a counterfactual case of a less successful activity (electronics, wine, frog meat, and biotechnology, respectively) and a section on policy implications. Agriculture, Exports, Manufacturing, Services, Uruguay Number 3267 2009-02 H41 L26 L65 L84 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-556&pub_file_name=pubR-556.pdf application/pdf Michele Snoeck Lucia Pittaluga Hector Pastori Rosario Domingo Carlos Casacuberta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper address options for restructuring the revenue system of Bolivia’s subnational governments, particularly prefectures, emphasizing reduction of dependence on natural resources and strengthening of subnational tax autonomy. The paper additionally identifies tax instruments or tax bases that could be assigned exclusively to regional governments or shared with the central government, assessing their main advantages and disadvantages through a simulation of revenue generation. The results show that several options exist for increasing the tax autonomy of local governments. The tax instruments proposed in this paper carry relatively low administrative costs. In fact, the taxes proposed would not require the establishment of new agencies but could be collected by existing agencies and, in the case of energy and fuel taxes, by producing and distributing firms. Number 4770 2012-04 H21 H23 H24 H25 H26 H71 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36811755 application/pdf Giorgio Brosio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio tiene como objetivo analizar los determinantes de los esquemas contractuales adoptados para la participación privada en ocho proyectos de concesión de infraestructura: dos del sector de acueductos (planta de tratamiento de Tibitoc, acueducto de Cartagena), tres de infraestructura de transporte (segunda pista del aeropuerto El Dorado, puerto de Cartagena, red Atlántica del ferrocarril), uno de telecomunicaciones (telefonía móvil celular) y dos del sector eléctrico (repotenciación de Tebsa y reconstrucción de Termoflores). Number 3111 2001-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-412&pub_file_name=pubR-412.pdf application/pdf Julio Cesar Alonso Israel Fainboim Yaker Carlos Jorge Rodriguez Juan Benavides

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint What are the reasons for and the costs of Latin America`s volatility? Because there is no consensus on these fundamental questions, there is no consensus on the appropriate policy response to macroeconomic volatility in Latin America, and other shock-prone countries. This paper provides new evidence on these contentious issues, and discusses policy implications for the region. Number 4020 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-315&pub_file_name=pubWP-315.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Michael Gavin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines whether an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds out private enrollment, using rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000-2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. Results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no effects on the quantity or quality of private provision. These findings are consistent with a theory in which households differ in willingness to pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply. Number IDB-WP-463 2013-11 D12 I21 I28 L21 O15 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38238994 application/pdf Paulo Bastos pbastos@iadb.org Odd Rune Straume

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Obtenga el PDF en español, visitando el WP-471) El futuro de las reformas estructurales en América Latina está en discusión. El objeto de este documento es resumir los hechos y las opiniones subyacentes de este debate. La primera parte muestra que si bien el proceso de reforma no se ha detenido del todo, sí ha sido incompleto y desigual, tanto entre países como entre las diversas áreas de reforma. Los mayores avances se han registrado en la reforma de los sectores del comercio internacional y las finanzas. En términos de reforma tributaria y privatización, los resultados de un país a otro son encontrados. Los avances más pequeños se han registrado en el área de la reforma del código laboral. En la segunda parte se analiza la situación de la opinión pública sobre el proceso de reforma. La desilusión con las reformas ha venido en aumento, especialmente entre la clase media. Más que reflejar inquietudes sobre el estado de la economía o el grado de avance de las reformas, esta crítica tiene que ver con la corrupción que ha empañado el proceso de privatización en algunos países. En la tercera sección se pasa revista a los efectos de las reformas. Sus repercusiones en el crecimiento parecen haber sido positivas, aunque pasajeras, pero sus efectos en el empleo y la distribución del ingreso han variado en diversas áreas de la reforma y según el contexto específico de cada país. En particular, la eficacia de las reformas ha dependido en gran medida de la calidad de las instituciones públicas. En la cuarta parte se presenta una síntesis de las principales propuestas para ampliar o reorientar el programa de reformas en la región. Un conjunto de propuestas sugiere ampliar el Consenso de Washington con políticas más activas, destinadas a acometer la necesidad de mayor estabilidad económica, integración social y una distribución equitativa del ingreso. Otro conjunto de propuestas, guiado por un punto de vista más amplio de los objetivos del desarrollo, hace hincapié en la interacción entre la sociedad civil, el sector privado y el gobierno. Por último, una visión más radical propone una nueva estructura nacional e internacional de las instituciones, a fin de limitar el papel de los mercados y atenuar los efectos de la globalización. Number 4302 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-470&pub_file_name=pubWP-470.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper`s main goal is to estimate the elasticity of substitution of non-tradable goods, paying special attention to empirical problems related to time-varying parameters, missing regressors and model misspecification. To that end, the paper creates a database and estimates, via three alternative methods, quarterly series of consumption and prices of tradable and non-tradable goods for Uruguay for the period 1983-2002. The econometric estimations of the parameter of interest were performed with VEC models. These estimates give a long-run elasticity of substitution of %0. 46 in the principal model and %0. 71 and %0. 75 in the two alternative models. Parametric stability tests are performed on the principal model, and the predictive ability of the model is also tested. It is concluded that, not only is the parameter of interest stable over time, but the model also has good predictive properties, even when tested in a very demanding environment: the period following Uruguay`s change of exchange rate regime in mid-2002. Number 3171 2005-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-480&pub_file_name=pubR-480.pdf application/pdf Fernando Lorenzo Rosa Osimani Patricio Valenzuela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Countries that are classified as having floating exchange rate systems (or very wide bands) show strikingly different patterns of behavior. They hold very different levels of international reserves and allow very different volatilities in the movements of the exchange rate relative to the volatility that they tolerate either on the level of reserves or in interest rates. We document these differences and present a model that explains them as the optimal response of a Central Bank that attempts to minimize a standard loss function, in an environment in which firms are credit-constrained and incomplete markets limit their ability to avoid currency mismatches. This model suggests that the difference in the way countries float could be related to their differing levels of exchange rate pass-through and differences in their ability to avoid currency mismatches. We test these implications and find a very strong and robust relationship between the pattern of floating and the ability of a country to borrow internationally in its own currency. We find weaker and less robust evidence on the importance of pass-through to account for differences across countries with respect to their exchange rate/monetary management. Number 4205 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-418&pub_file_name=pubWP-418.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Ugo Panizza Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo presenta elementos de juicio sobre los efectos de la normativa laboral en la desigualdad del ingreso, empleando dos bases de datos publicadas recientemente sobre las instituciones y los resultados laborales (Rama y Artecona, 2002; Botero, Djankov, La Porta, López de Silanes y Shleifer, 2003) y diversas técnicas de análisis de muestras representativas y de datos de panel, de una muestra de 121 países durante el período de 1970 a 2000. Al tomar en cuenta las técnicas que tienen mayor probabilidad de ser valederas, descubrimos lo siguiente: (i) la normativa de jure no hace mejorar la distribución del ingreso, (ii) el cumplimiento relativo de la normativa vigente hace mejorar la distribución del ingreso y (iii) la normativa de facto guarda una escasa relación con el mejoramiento de la desigualdad del ingreso. Este resultado obedece en parte al hecho de que la normativa es endógena y, más curiosamente, que diversas normativas tienen erectos muy diversos. En particular, hallamos que todo efecto de redistribución de la normativa laboral puede provenir de la afiliación sindical, el empleo en el sector público y las prestaciones de ley (representadas por el permiso de maternidad). Number 4376 2004-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-514&pub_file_name=pubWP-514.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Rodrigo Valdés

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este informe utiliza información a nivel provincial en Argentina para probar la relación casual entre la distribución de electricidad y la salud. Examina el impacto de la privatización en dos medidas: incidencia en los índices de nacimientos de bajo peso y mortalidad infantil causada por envenenamiento de comida. La privatizacion mejora la cobertura del servicio que, a través del uso de refrigeradoras puede mejorar la ración nutricional. La privatización también tiene por resultado la reducción en la frecuencia de interrupciones eléctricas, y así reducir la probabilidad del envenenamiento de la comida. A pesar que la evidencia indica que la privatización reduce el índice de nacimientos de bajo peso y mortalidad infantil causados por el envenenamiento de la comida, los resultados no son lo suficientemente fuertes para enriquecer el debate de políticasrespecto a los beneficios de la privatización para el bienestar de los pobres. Number 3229 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-524&pub_file_name=pubR-524.pdf application/pdf Martín Gonzalez-Eiras Martín A. Rossi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper processes 76 household surveys from 17 Latin American countries to document changes in poverty and inequality during the 1990s. We show that there is no country in Latin America where inequality declined during the 1990s. Poverty declined in 10 or 11 of the 17 countries for which household surveys are available to us, depending on the poverty measured used. Persistently high inequality inhibited further poverty reduction. Number 4271 2001-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-454&pub_file_name=pubWP-454.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés) Basándome en investigaciones en lingüística y sicología, empleo el lenguaje hablado como manifestación de la aculturación. Empleo datos a nivel del individuo y a nivel de la ciudad provenientes de la zona del Lago Ontario en Canadá y estudio los factores que determinan la asimilación cultural. Me concentro en la educación, la edad, el ingreso y, en especial, en algunas variables que se suelen tratar cuando salen a colación temas de globalización, tales como la inmigración, mirar televisión, fronteras y los antecedentes de residencia de los individuos. Hallo que el contacto real sí importa en tanto que factor determinante de la homogeneización cultural. El contacto virtual parece ser irrelevante. Este hallazgo es robusto a cambios de especificación y a diversos métodos empíricos. Number 4455 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-557&pub_file_name=pubWP-557.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Many developing countries are allocating significant resources to expanding technology access in schools. Whether these investments will translate into measurable educational improvements remains an open question because of the limited evidence available. This paper contributes to filling that gap by exploiting a large-scale public program that increased computer and Internet access in secondary public schools in Peru. Rich longitudinal school-level data from 2001 to 2006 are used to implement a differences-in-differences framework. Results indicate no statistically significant effects of increasing technology access in schools on repetition, dropout and initial enrollment. Large sample sizes allow ruling out even modest effects. Number IDB-WP-477 2014-01 I21 I28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38351946 application/pdf Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org Alejo Czerwonko Pablo Garofalo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (PDF file in English available WP-531) This paper compares growth conditions in China and Latin America to assess fears that China will displace Latin America in the coming decades. China`s strengths include the size of the economy, macroeconomic stability, abundant low-cost labor, the rapid expansion of physical infrastructure, and the ability to innovate. China`s weaknesses, stemming from insufficient separation between market and state, include poor corporate governance, a fragile financial system and misallocation of savings. Both regions share important weaknesses: the rule of law is weak, corruption endemic, and education is poor and very poorly distributed. Number 4419 2005-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-536&pub_file_name=pubWP-536.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Over the last few years, the debate on labor market reform has been at the center of economic policy debate in Argentina. This debate has been fueled by the sustained growth in the unemployment rate observed during the decade. One of the major targets of the attack on labor market regulation has been high dismissal costs. Attempts to reduce dismissal costs for all existing jobs have faced strong opposition. As a compromise, and to stimulate job creation, employment promotion contracts for new jobs were introduced in 1995. These contracts are limited to a fixed term ranging from three months to two years. Number 3106 2001-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-407&pub_file_name=pubR-407.pdf application/pdf Hugo A. Hopenhayn

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46952019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies three horizontal policy instruments and two vertical ones in Chilean industrial policy, particularly regarding small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The horizontal instruments are (1) a guarantee program for borrowing by SMEs (FOGAPE), (2) a small subsidy to new exports that was applied from 1985 through 2003, and (3) the innovation subsidies provided by the Corporación de Fomento de la Producción (CORFO). The vertical policy instruments are the activities of Fundación Chile (FCh), a semi-public entrepreneur cum venture capitalist, and a CORFO program to attract foreign direct investment in information technology. Although most programs are well designed, they are numerous and insufficiently funded; Chile could benefit from a prioritization of needs and consolidation of these programs. Moreover, the instruments for making strategic bets on new sectors are particularly weak. In particular, FCh needs to refocus its activities on high-risk projects with long payoffs, something it cannot do with its small endowment. Industrial policy, Small and medium enterprises, Chile Number 4695 2010-11 F43 L52 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-170&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-170.pdf application/pdf Manuel Agosin Nicolas Grau Christian Larrain

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this paper is to identify whether the prevailing Brazilian labor market regulations, largely the result of the 1988 constitutional change, have any impact on labor market performance. To reach this objective we explore alternative methodologies, sources of information and measures of labor market performance. Number 3124 2001-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-427&pub_file_name=pubR-427.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Paes de Barros Carlos Henrique Corseuil

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) This document, which is a revision of the original work, describes and measures the progress of structural reforms, using a structural policy index which summarizes the state of progress of policies in the commercial, financial, tax, privatization and labor areas. A parallel article uses this index to evaluate the effect of structural reforms on growth, productivity, and investment in Latin America. The index is directly based on policy variables such as those mentioned. The index compares the state of the various policy areas in a particular country or of each policy between countries. On a scale from 0 to 1, the average index for all the countries and areas of structural policy was at a level of 0. 34 in 1985. By the end of the 1990s, the index had reached 0. 58. This change reveals appreciable progress, but also reflects the fact that there is still an important potential to be exploited. Number 4287 2001-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-462&pub_file_name=pubWP-462.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Amongst a favorable economic environment, Ecuador’s exceptional oil revenues have bolstered fiscal accounts. Several legal changes have created or modified funds or accounts aimed at saving, earmarking, or using oil-related revenues. This paper discusses oil-related fiscal policies, stabilization funds, and options in Ecuador. It reviews existing schemes, describes fiscal trends and underlying vulnerabilities, and offers trends and prospects for the oil-related funds and fiscal accounts. Assessing the weaknesses of the fiscal stabilization framework, it offers suggestions for improving efficiency in the use of exceptional fiscal revenues. It calls for enforceable fiscal responsibility rules, an enhanced accountability for oil revenues and the budget process, market mechanisms to hedge against oil price volatility, and a strengthened planning and prioritization of public investment. Number 2004 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-110&pub_file_name=pubCSI-110.pdf application/pdf Simón Cueva

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a new database on the currency composition of assets and liabilities, this paper explores the determinants and consequences of currency mismatches in Chilean non-financial firms. As in previous firm level studies for Chile, we find that in periods following a depreciation firms with higher dollar debt do not underperform their peso counterparts. However, once we adequately control for differences in the currency composition of assets, income and net derivative positions, we do find a significant balance sheet effect. In addition, we find that derivatives play a role in insulating firm level investment from exchange rate shocks. In line with previous studies, we also find evidence of currency matching in Chilean corporates. Firms in Chile actively reduce the risks associated with exchange rate exposure by matching the currency composition of their debt with that of their income and assets, and by taking on derivatives if no "real" hedge is available. Finally, we find significant changes in the level of net currency exposure after the exchange rate was floated in 1999. We argue that one possible interpretation of these results is due to the effect of higher exchange rate variance on the relative risk of domestic and foreign debt. Number 4387 2005-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-521&pub_file_name=pubWP-521.pdf application/pdf Kevin Cowan Erwin Hansen Luis Oscar Herrera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presenta información detallada sobre las instituciones presupuestarias de países latinoamericanos. Esas instituciones se clasifican según una escala jerárquica/colegiada, como función de la existencia de factores limitantes de déficit y las reglas de votación. Number 4161 1998-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-394&pub_file_name=pubWP-394.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Alberto Alesina Rudolf Hommes Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se muestra que buena parte del grado de variación de los diferenciales de intereses de los bonos de mercados emergentes obedece al desenvolvimiento de factores mundiales tales como la disposición a aceptar riesgos (según se aprecia en el diferencial de bonos empresariales de alto rendimiento de mercados desarrollados), liquidez mundial (medida por las tasas de interés internacionales) y el contagio (de acontecimientos sistémicos como el incumplimiento de Rusia). Este vínculo se ha mantenido relativamente estable a través de la historia de la clase de mercados emergentes, es robusto a la inclusión de factores específicos de los países y permite formular predicciones precisas de largo plazo. En general, los resultados resaltan el papel crítico que desempeñan los factores exógenos en el desenvolvimiento del costo del endeudamiento que encaran las economías emergentes. Number 4446 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-552&pub_file_name=pubWP-552.pdf application/pdf Martín González Rozada Eduardo Levy Yeyati

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La bonanza petrolera mexicana se caracterizó por un período de gran inversión seguido por la fuga de capitales. El sector privado y los hogares respondieron a la racha de ingresos extraordinarios de 1977 a 1981 alcanzando elevados niveles de ahorro. Por otro lado, el gobierno mexicano, propietario de la compañía petrolera oficial y el principal beneficiario de la bonanza petrolera, utilizó los ingresos extraordinarios para financiar un gasto insostenible e incluso incurrir en ahorro negativo. Esas políticas produjeron dislocaciones macroeconómicas que hicieron a México sumamente vulnerable a las inevitables sacudidas externas. Number 4019 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-314&pub_file_name=pubWP-314.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analiza el papel de las redes sociales para determinar la participación de mujeres bolivianas en actividades generadoras de ingresos. Los resultados hacen pensar que las redes sociales son un canal eficaz para que las mujeres obtengan acceso a empleos asalariados, los cuales son de mayor calidad que los empleos independientes. Por el contrario, sus contrapartes varones perciben un efecto positivo aunque estadísticamente insignificante en la interacción con redes sociales. Al tomar en cuenta el sexo del contacto, las mujeres de zonas urbanas se benefician de otras mujeres empleadas, mientras en las zonas rurales las mujeres se benefician de la presencia de más trabajadores hombres empleados. (Disponible en Inglés) Number 3241 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-540&pub_file_name=pubR-540.pdf application/pdf Dante Contreras Daniela Zapata Diana Kruger Marcelo Ochoa

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Se analiza la movilidad social y la acumulación de capital humano entre minorías étnicas en zonas urbanas de México, se exploran los cambios en el logro académico y la situación en el mercado laboral y se emplean datos de panel provenientes de la Encuesta sobre la Vida de la Familia Mexicana (MFxLS). Los resultados apuntan a importantes diferencias étnicas en los patrones de acumulación de capital humano, especialmente en la educación, donde los individuos no indígenas parecen acumular capital humano con mayor rapidez que los individuos de descendencia indígena. Además, características sociales y demográficas vinculadas con esos patrones de acumulación de capital humano parecen diferir entre los individuos de extracción indígena y los de extracción no indígena. En especial, en el caso de pueblos indígenas en zonas urbanas, la acumulación de capital humano y la acumulación de riqueza parecen obrar más como sustitutos que como complementos en el corto plazo. Social mobility, human capital accumulation, education, ethnic minorities, urban areas, Mexico Number 4620 2008-12 D13 J15 O18 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-660&pub_file_name=pubWP-660.pdf application/pdf Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org Natalia Winder

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo llena un vacío sobre el tema de los factores que determinan los precios de privatización, al concentrarse en un ramo de actividad a través de muchos países. Esto no se ha hecho anteriormente, ya que la obra publicada se ha concentrado únicamente en: (i) muchas industrias en un solo país, (ii) una sola industria en un país o (iii) muchas industrias en muchos países. Complementamos una base de datos dada a conocer recientemente con datos también recabados recientemente, y podemos cubrir 34 procesos de privatización en el sector de las telecomunicaciones, que representan casi 80% del sector en términos de valor. Nuestros hallazgos se corresponden con los de la escasa obra disponible sobre los precios de privatización, dado que nuestra mejor recomendación de políticas es principalmente concentrarse en la transparencia y limpieza del proceso de privatización, porque los métodos de venta sí importan. Mostramos que la administración gubernamental de los procesos de redimensionamiento laboral pueden traer como consecuencia una selección adversa, ya que los mejores trabajadores son los primeros en abandonar la empresa cuando tienen la oportunidad. Number 4320 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-480&pub_file_name=pubWP-480.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Virgilio Galdo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Randomized controlled trials, prized for generating unbiased estimates of treatment effects, have become popular in development economics. However, RCTs do not always offer sufficient statistical power, which is reduced in experiments with imperfect compliance to treatment assignment. This is of critical importance if effect sizes are modest, and if non-compliance may occur. Both are likely in experiments in center-based childcare programs with individual-level randomization for several reasons. Dropout in the treatment group may occur because families' demand for preschool is unknown when the sample is constructed, and it evolves over time as households experience shocks and as they learn about the center. Non-compliance in the control group arises when children access the program or alternative preschool programs. This paper uses a recent evaluation of the Hogares Comunitarios program in Guatemala to illustrate challenges inherent in experimental evaluations and offers strategies to identify situations in which studies are more likely to succeed. Number 4822 2012-11 C93 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37305980 application/pdf Sarah Humpage

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint A growing body of recent macroeconomic evidence suggests that volatility is detrimental to economic growth. The channels through which volatility affects growth, however, are less clear; substantive evidence based on disaggregate data is almost non-existent. This paper offers a framework in which policy volatility has an adverse effect on firms` entry into productive industries, thereby affecting economic growth. Empirical support for this relationship is based on a detailed dataset of thousands of firms from some 80 countries. Additional evidence is provided on the channels through which volatility affects firm growth, showing that institutional obstacles magnify the effect. Number 4481 2006-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-578&pub_file_name=pubWP-578.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of variance in LAC7 GDP growth, and that external shocks produce significant responses. Likewise, a significant share of recent LAC7 growth performance can be explained by an external factor “tailwind. ” Also evaluated is the impact of deterioration in external financial conditions. Finally, the relevance of these findings for policy evaluation is emphasized. Growth performance, the strength or weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of domestic macro and micro policies on growth can only be properly appraised by first filtering out the effects of external factors. Number 4569 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-631&pub_file_name=pubWP-631.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Randall Romero Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper proposes a new measure of social mobility. It is based on schooling gap regressions and uses the Fields decomposition to determine the importance of family background in explaining teenagers schooling gaps. Number 3130 2001-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-433&pub_file_name=pubR-433.pdf application/pdf Lykke Andersen

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Despite a recent expansion in housing finance, Brazil still faces a severe housing shortage, especially among lower-income people, and it is important to examine the development, limitations and prospects of the country`s housing finance market. This paper investigates the recent evolution of that market in Brazil, focusing on whether the current expansion in mortgage lending is the result of institutional and economic improvements favoring economic stability and compliance with contractual obligations or is merely an effect of the higher level of housing loans imposed by the government on financial institutions. Different explanations are found for private and public institutions. Number 4730 2011-09 D23 N97 R21 R31 R38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36411946 application/pdf Bruno Martins Eduardo Lundberg Tony Takeda

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint High inequality has long been regarded as one of the main problems facing Latin American countries. To understand better the determinants of inequality and to help guide thinking about policy options, it is useful to know whether inequality mainly reflects low intergenerational mobility or whether it is driven by differences in individual characteristics that arise independently of family background. In this paper we use five household surveys with questions about parental socioeconomic characteristics for adults, and a set of 112 standard household surveys to examine the intergenerational transmission of schooling and occupational status in Latin America and the United States. We find that intergenerational mobility is much higher in the United States than in Latin America, that there are sizable differences in mobility within Latin America, and that mobility in Latin America is strongly associated with schooling levels and expenditures on education. Number 4267 2001-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-452&pub_file_name=pubWP-452.pdf application/pdf Jere R. Behrman Alejandro Gaviria Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint According to recent research, external factors and political governance considerations are key determinants of capital flows in Latin America. We postulate that corporate governance is a crucial determinant as well. We show that while the region is characterized by relatively low levels of corporate governance it shows highly volatile capital flows. The high level of economic volatility that characterizes the region is partly due to the behavior of capital flows which, in turn, are influenced by external factors. The paper shows that by implementing better corporate governance the region could reduce the sensitivity of capital flows to external shocks and hence reduce the volatility of its economy. Number 4323 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-482&pub_file_name=pubWP-482.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Alejandro Micco Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47472019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys climate change funds related to LAC countries and attempts to derive some implications through performance analyses of these funds. The performance analyses show that the following matters should be addressed: increases in participation of the IDB as an agent in the projects for the LAC region, enlargement of the scale of co-financing in the IDB-brokered cases as well as in the LAC region, and reinforcement of the linkage between the SECCI Funds and international climate change funds. Further research as to why the level of co-financing in LAC countries is lower than in other regions would also be of interest. Number 4747 2011-07 F30 G20 Q50 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36317931 application/pdf Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org Bok-Keun Yu

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Las encuestas LAPOP (Latin American Public Opinion Project) son un instrumento útil y relevante en el análisis cuantitativo de las instituciones políticas y su relación con los ciudadanos de los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Este documento analiza las relaciones entre las instituciones políticas y temas como calidad de vida y victimización a la luz de estas encuestas. Los resultados generales muestran que los ciudadanos latinoamericanos tienen percepciones distintas frente a su vida y frente a lo que sucede en su país, y aún ven en la democracia el sistema político más deseable para la conducción de sus países. encuesta de opinión, instituciones políticas, calidad de vida, victimización Number 4612 2009-01 P48 H11 I31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-669&pub_file_name=pubWP-669_esp.pdf application/pdf Lucas Higuera lucash@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper aims to provide an overview of the current state of taxation in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, and its main reform needs and options. It previews the findings of recent studies prepared or commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) for its forthcoming flagship publication More than Revenue: Taxation as a Development Tool in the -Development in the Americas- series. Reflecting fiscal consolidation imperatives, the main objective of fiscal policies in the region in recent decades has been revenue mobilization, often at the expense of efficiency and equity objectives. This paper analyzes the region’s taxation in regard to revenue adequacy, efficiency, vertical and horizontal equity, ease of administration and compliance, and degree of fiscal decentralization, concluding that there is significant scope for reforms that would result in simultaneous improvement on several of these fronts. Although the paper does not provide a specific blueprint for reforms, which would need to be designed on a country-by-country basis, it identifies directions for reform that are relevant for most of the region. Number 4803 2012-09 H20 H21 H22 H23 H24 H25 H26 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37123471 application/pdf Teresa Ter-Minassian

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32472019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses an experimental field approach to investigate the pro-social preferences and behavior of social services providers and the behavior of potential beneficiaries in Bogota, Colombia. Field experiments were conducted using games including a newly designed Distributive Dictator Game in order to examine traits and mechanisms guiding pro-sociality. Replicating the patterns of previous studies, individuals showed a preference for fair outcomes, positive levels of trust and reciprocity, and willingness to punish unfair outcomes. The results provide evidence that the poor trigger more pro-social behavior from all citizens, including public servants, but the latter display strategic generosity. Additional observations include a bias in favor of women and households with more dependents, but discriminatory behavior against stigmatized groups. Number 3247 2008-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-544&pub_file_name=pubR-544.pdf application/pdf Juan Camilo Cardenas Natalia Candelo Alejandro Gaviria Sandra Polania Rajiv Sethi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the impact of trade liberalization on labor and capital gross flows and productivity in the Uruguayan manufacturing sector. Uruguay opened its economy in the presence of -at least initially- strong unions and structurally different industry concentration levels. Higher international exposure implied slightly higher job creation and an important increase in job and capital destruction. Unions were able to dampen this effect. Although not associated with higher creation rates, unions were effective in reducing job and capital destruction. Industry concentration also was found to mitigate the destruction of jobs but had no effect on job creation or capital dynamics. The changes in the use of labor and capital were accompanied by an increase in total factor productivity, especially in sectors where tariff reductions were larger and unions were not present. The authors found no evidence of varying productivity dynamics across different industry concentration levels. Number 3170 2004-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-479&pub_file_name=pubR-479.pdf application/pdf Carlos Casacuberta Gabriela Fachola Nestor Gandelman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presentan elementos de juicio sobre la relación entre las sacudidas económicas y el salario relativo de los varones y los cambios de consumo de los hogares en México durante los años 90, un período caracterizado por una inestabilidad elevada. Además de realizar esta clase de análisis con México por primera vez, el trabajo presenta dos aportes principales. El primero es el uso de fuentes alternativas de datos para construir variables instrumentales de salarios. El segundo es analizar las diferencias entre cuatro categorías de consumo: bienes perecederos, bienes no perecederos, educación y salud. Nuestros resultados en cuanto al consumo de bienes perecederos rechazan la hipótesis de que los hogares mexicanos son capaces de asegurarse contra el riesgo idiosincrásico. En cuanto a las comparaciones entre categorías de consumo, la conclusión es que en México los hogares tienden a reaccionar a sacudidas pasajeras contrayendo el consumo de bienes que representan inversiones de más largo plazo en el capital humano, lo que los hace más vulnerables en el futuro. Number 4266 2001-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-451&pub_file_name=pubWP-451.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Orazio P. Attanasio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Panel data for seven Latin American countries are used to assess the influence of public indebtedness on public investment in infrastructure in the period 1987-2001. Debt increases are associated with higher public infrastructure investment, an effect that is robust to the inclusion of many other fiscal and macroeconomic variables. This paper also finds some evidence of complementarity between public and private investment and of the negative effect of IMF adjustment loans on infrastructure expenditures. No evidence is found that debt defaults affect public investment in infrastructure Number 4502 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-595&pub_file_name=pubWP-595.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study evaluates the major changes in the main sectors of structural economy policy in Latin America between 1985 and 2009, and proposes a set of indices intended to measure the extent to which commercial, financial, tax, privatization and labor policies are favorable for the free operation of the various markets. In a scale that ranges from 0 to 1, the average index for all the countries and all the areas of structural policy rose from 0. 39 in 1985 to 0. 6 by the end of the 90s and to 0. 65 by the end of the decade of 2000. The structural reforms have been deep, particularly in the commercial and financial sectors and, to a lesser extent, in the areas of taxation and privatization of the infrastructure sectors. These indices allow comparisons through time, between areas and countries. However, they are inadequate in measuring structural policies in Argentina and Venezuela during the decade of 2000 because some of the heterodox policies adopted by these countries are not covered by the indices. Number 4809 2012-10 F10 H20 O11 O20 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37211452 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40942019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper discusses the range of factors that can stimulate the further development of the domestic institutional sector through pension system reform measures. The development of the institutional sector in emerging market economies is compared with the experiences of OECD countries. The focus is on the key factors that have been (and are) driving the growth of OECD institutional investor activities and the impact of institutional investors on securities markets. Number 4094 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-359&pub_file_name=pubWP-359.pdf application/pdf Hans J. Blommestein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The relevance of transport costs has increased as liberalization continues to reduce artificial barriers to trade. Countries need to adopt policies to `get closer` to global markets. Can improvements in infrastructure and regulation reduce transport costs? Is it worthwhile to implement policies designed to increase competition in transport markets? Focusing on air transport, which has increased its share in US imports from 24 percent in 1990 to 35 percent in 2000, this paper quantifies the effects of infrastructure, regulatory quality and liberalization of air cargo markets on transport costs. During the 1990s, the US implemented a series of Open Skies agreements, which have provided a unique opportunity to assess the effect on prices of a change in the competition regime. We find that infrastructure, quality of regulation and competition matter. In our sample, an improvement in airport infrastructure from the 25th to 75th percentiles reduces air transport costs 15 percent. A similar improvement in the quality of regulation reduces air transport costs 14 percent. In addition, Open Skies agreements reduce air transport costs by 8 percent. Number 4369 2004-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-510&pub_file_name=pubWP-510.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Tomas Serebrisky

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46992019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento analiza las Políticas de Desarrollo Productivos en cinco estudios de caso: i) la promoción de los servicios de exportación; ii) la promoción de las exportaciones de bienes; iii) la promoción de zonas libres; iv) el crédito subsidiado a las viviendas populares; y v) el crédito subsidiado a la agricultura. En todos estos casos se presentan su historia, su justificación en función de las externalidades que deseaban resolver, los procesos de coordinación públicaprivada y sus resultados. Se concluye con una valoración crítica de estas políticas y algunas recomendaciones. Política de desarrollo productivo, Política industrial, Panamá Number 4699 2011-01 O25 O43 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-172&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-172_esp.pdf application/pdf Marcos Fernandez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este artículo se presenta una visión comparada de la formación de economistas en cinco países de América Latina. Para tal fin, se analizan la currícula, los libros de texto comúnmente utilizados, la dedicación de los profesores, los métodos de enseñanza, y el uso de tecnologías y herramientas computacionales. Así mismo, siguiendo el enfoque de Colander (2005), se aplica una encuesta a estudiantes de esta carrera para diseñar un perfil socioeconómico de los mismos e indagar acerca de sus actitudes y opiniones. Dentro de las regularidades encontradas para los cinco países, es de resaltar la falta de conexión entre las expectativas de los estudiantes sobre las demandas de los mercados de trabajo y las demandas efectivas de economistas por sectores de empleo. Economía, enseñanza, formación, universidad Number 4648 2009-12 A22 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-119&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-119_esp.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora Hugo Nopo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Atribuir las crisis financieras a los ingresos de capitales de corto plazo se ha convertido en algo corriente, mientras que la inversión extranjera directa (IED) se considera una forma más segura de financiamiento. La relación entre las crisis y la composición de los flujos de capitales resulta especialmente pertinente en la actualidad, dado que la IED se está haciendo cada vez más predominante en el flujo de capitales hacia América Latina. En este trabajo se cuestiona si la composición de los flujos de capitales y el conjunto de pasivos extranjeros es pertinente para las crisis financieras, bien sea con respecto a su frecuencia, su profundidad o su duración. Se analiza el posible papel de la IED como forma benigna de pasivos externos relacionados con otras clases de pasivos, y se repasan tanto los argumentos analíticos como los empíricos. Number 4202 2000-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-416&pub_file_name=pubWP-416.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study describes how minority enrollment probabilities respond to changes in admission policies from affirmative-action to merit-only programs and then to percentage plans when the demographic composition of the potential pool of applicants is also shifting. It takes advantage of admission policy changes that occurred in the state of Texas with the Hopwood and HB588 decisions and of a unique administrative dataset that includes applications, admissions, and enrollments for three public universities of different selectivity levels. The findings suggest that the elimination of affirmative action and the introduction of the Top 10% plan had differential effects on minority enrollment probabilities as well as on application behavior depending on the selectivity level of the postsecondary institution. In particular, Hopwood is related to shifts in minority enrollments from selective institutions to less selective ones as the cascading hypothesis predicts. And although the Top 10% plan seems to have helped increased minority enrollment probabilities at the selective college as the upgrading hypothesis predicts, once the increases in minority shares among high-school graduates are taken into account, we find that the Top 10% plan can no longer be related to improvements in minority representation at selective universities. Number 4542 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-617&pub_file_name=pubWP-617.pdf application/pdf Mariana Alfonso Juan Carlos Calcagno

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the determinants of housing demand for Uruguay and the extent to which housing policies have an impact on their target population. The paper first analyzes the determinants of housing demand, following an approach based on Rosen’s (1974) two-step procedure consisting of fitting a hedonic price regression in 34 different geographical units (or markets) to estimate a housing demand function. The determinants of formality and ownership choices were examined using a multinomial logit framework. Determinants of these choices include both household demographic attributes and access to and use of public housing programs and other social programs. Policy recommendations are offered on the basis of the finding that a price and income-inelastic formal housing market greatly contrasts with a rather price and income-elastic informal housing market. Number 4737 2011-10 G21 I38 O54 R21 R28 R38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36475730 application/pdf Natalia Garabato Magdalena Ramada-Sarasola

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This case study of Venezuela`s democratic institution and policymaking processes is part of the broader regional project based on the theoretical framework developed by Spiller, Stein and Tommasi (2003). The framework focuses on the conditions that foster political cooperation among political actors to sustain inter-temporal policy commitments. The study shows that the political institutions that established Venezuela`s democracy in the 1960s were deliberately set up to generate a cooperative equilibrium with low stakes of power. Constitutionally weak presidents and strong centralized political parties characterized this institutional framework. Cooperation induced a relatively effective policymaking process and good policy outcomes. However, an oil boom and its aftermath, in the 1970s and 1980s, unraveled the cooperative framework and induced rapid economic decay. The political reforms implemented in the late 1980s to improve the democratic process, although in itself desirable, further weakened the party system and induced a highly uncooperative and volatile policymaking process. The recent political reforms, increasing the stakes of power, have stimulated a complete breakdown in cooperation and a highly polarized political system. Number 3196 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-507&pub_file_name=pubR-507.pdf application/pdf Francisco Monaldi Rosa Amelia González de Pacheco Richard Obuchi Michael Penfold

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint A research project conducted by the Office of the Chief Economist at the Inter-American Development Bank has found preliminary but compelling evidence that the budgetary institutions in Latin America have a significant bearing on fiscal results. The researchers have developed an index of budget institutional development, which measures the strength of budget institutions. The results suggest that strong institutions have an impact on fiscal performance. Number 4024 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-317&pub_file_name=pubWP-317.pdf application/pdf Rudolf Hommes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4182019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint What makes for effective cooperation between government and business in industrial policy? Core research questions on the institutional design of arrangements for business-government interactions focus on three main functions: i) maximizing the benefits of dialogue and information exchange; ii) motivating participation through authoritative allocation; and iii) minimizing unproductive rent seeking. Countries with more experiences of public-private collaboration (PPC) tend to have more pragmatic governments and better organized and informally networked private sectors. Effective cooperation also depends on the macro context, in particular the nature of the political system and the alternative avenues it provides for business politicking, especially through parties, networks and appointments, the media, and campaign finance. Lastly, the structure and strategies of big domestic businesses -mostly diversified, family-owned business groups- affects their preferences and interest in collaborating in industrial policy. Number IDB-WP-418 2013-10 D72 L52 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38238797 application/pdf Ben Ross Schneider

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Even as Trinidad and Tobago seeks productive diversification away from the energy sector, the process underlying the country’s productive development policies (PDP) is in a state of transition from state-directed industrial policy to a newer approach with extensive private-public participation. This study explores the main characteristics of four PDPs in Trinidad and Tobago and reviews them following the related literature (e.g., Rodríguez-Clare, 2005a and 2005b, and Melo and Rodríguez-Clare, 2006). The four PDPs are: a) The process towards the Promotion of Clusters; b) the PDPs for the Tourism industry; c) the classical PDPs for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises and; d) the Free Trade Zone as a policy designed to compensate for the failure of the State. Industrial policy, Productive development policies, Diversification, Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago Number 4650 2010-01 L52 O25 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-115&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-115.pdf application/pdf Ramiro Moya Anne-Marie Mohammed Sandra Sookram

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This article, which serves as an introduction to a group of studies prepared by the IDB Office of the Chief Economist, presents the perceptions of Latin American citizens and employers concerning the employment problem. It compares them to the conditions in the labor markets of the region. Number 4114 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-371&pub_file_name=pubWP-371.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues that, in the presence of nominal wage rigidities, the existence of Rule-of-Thumb agents and price rigidities does not cause a change in the Taylor Principle as suggested by Galí et al. (2004), and that the only rigidity relevant for this result is that faced by Rule-of-Thumb consumers. For doing so, a New-Keynesian model with Rule-of-Thumb agents is proposed. The model discriminates between both type of agents when defining wage rigidities, thus al- lowing to identify and measure the factors that affect the Taylor Principle, this also allows to drop complete markets for Rule-of-Thumb agents, and the simple use of non-separable utility functions in order to determine the incidence of the wealth effect when facing staggered wages. Number IDB-WP-400 2013-05 C68 E32 E37 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37783584 application/pdf Sergio Ocampo Diaz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Total factor productivity (TFP) in Latin America has not increased since the mid- 1970s, and in many countries it has declined. Moreover, resource misallocation can lower aggregate TFP. This paper presents evidence based on firm-level data from 10 Latin American countries to quantify the heterogeneity of firm productivity and the degree of resource misallocation within countries. Productivity heterogeneity and resource misallocation are found to be much larger than in the United States. Achieving an efficient allocation of resources could boost manufacturing TFP between 45 percent and 127 percent depending on the countries and years considered. Number 4753 2012-04 D24 L25 O47 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36816832 application/pdf Matias Busso mbusso@iadb.org Lucia Madrigal lmadrigal@iadb.org Carmen Pages-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents theory and evidence on the relationship between inequality and institutional quality. We propose a model in which the two dynamically reinforce each other and set out to test this relationship with a broad array of institutional measures. We establish double causality between better institutional quality and a more equal distribution of income, but also demonstrate that the link from the latter dominates the former. These results are shown to be robust to various specifications and different data sources that cover various time-spans. Number 4361 2004-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-506&pub_file_name=pubWP-506.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Studies of the effects of pre-school programs on child development in developing countries have found scant impact. This study was conducted to reconcile the importance of daycare for child development with the empirical estimates of small effects. Using a random sample of 500 children from 100 daycare centers in the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), the study combines a flexible function relating child development to daycare center quality. A hedonic cost function permits an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of better-quality daycare centers. The study finds that the developmental age of children attending high-quality services is greater than that of children attending low-quality centers. It also finds that quality improvement can be measured in a number of ways, with different cost implications or impacts on child development. Number 4744 2011-12 D61 I21 I22 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36577432 application/pdf Ricardo Barros Mirela de Carvalho Samuel Franco Rosane Mendonca Andrezza Rosalem

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper discusses the ways in which macroeconomic developments can put stress on banks, and in extreme cases lead to banking crises. These macroeconomic causes of bank vulnerability and crisis have important implications for regulatory regimes, and for macroeconomic policy itself. Much of the discussion emphasizes the need for monetary policy to be set with an eye on the state of the domestic banking system as an occasionally important consideration. One purpose of this paper is to promote a discussion of how to do a better job of incorporating weak banking systems into macroeconomic policy management. Number 4026 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-318&pub_file_name=pubWP-318.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo se concentra en las decisiones relacionadas con la fertilidad en Brasil, un país donde las novelas usualmente muestran familias mucho más reducidas que en la realidad, para analizar la influencia de la televisión en el comportamiento del individuo. Usando datos del censo correspondientes al período de 1970 a 1991, este trabajo revela que las mujeres que viven en zonas a las que llega la señal de Globo tienen un nivel de fertilidad considerablemente más bajo. El efecto es más notorio en el caso de mujeres de nivel socioeconómico más bajo y mujeres en las etapas media y avanzada de su ciclo menstrual (de fertilidad). Por último, el trabajo muestra indicios de que lo que influye en las decisiones individuales son las novelas específicamente, más que la televisión en general. Number 4574 2008-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-633&pub_file_name=pubWP-633.pdf application/pdf Eliana La Ferrara Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Suzanne Duryea

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Se estudian las implicancias fiscales y energéticas de la escalada en los precios del petróleo estimando efectos directos e indirectos. Dado que las economías se hallan en una fase expansiva, estimamos, un impacto “latente”sobre el PIB, respecto de las condiciones iniciales (año 2003), que a su vez lleva a una pérdida latente en la recaudación fiscal del 0. 7% PIB promedio entre países. A diferencia de este efecto latente, la perdida directa observada en la recaudación de impuestos a los hidrocarburos se estima en 0. 4% del PIB, también con diferencias entre países. Adicionalmente, los subsidios explícitos varían según el país pero en promedio representan el 1% del PIB. En suma, la combinación de efectos fiscales directos e indirectos promedio entre países de la escalada en los precios del petróleo se estima en un 1. 4% del PIB para el período 2003-06 (que se eleva a 2. 1% si se consideran los efectos “latentes”). Luego se examina la evidencia sobre el modo de intervención en la formación de precios y en el grado de “acolchonamiento” de impuestos a los combustibles de los distintos países. El mayor o menor traslado del shock a los precios domésticos de los combustibles derivo en dificultades diversas que emergieron en el sector eléctrico y de transporte, dando lugar a respuestas en materia de formación de precios, impuestos y subsidios. Finalmente se discuten las estrategias basadas en otros mecanismos posibles como los fondos de estabilización y se hacen algunas sugerencias generales y por país derivadas de la evidencia encontrada. Number 4556 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-624&pub_file_name=pubWP-624_esp.pdf application/pdf Daniel Artana Fernando Navajas Marcelo Catena

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo proponemos el uso de una metodología alternativa para hacer el seguimiento de bajos niveles de ingresos, basándonos en la familia de funciones de ingreso equivalente de distribución igual de Atkinson (1970), llamadas aquí de media general. Mostramos una nueva caracterización de la media general que justifica su uso en este contexto. Nuestro método para evaluar los efectos del crecimiento en el ingreso de los pobres se basa en una comparación de los niveles de crecimiento de dos niveles de vida: la media ordinaria y una media general sensible al extremo inferior. La pregunta que nos motivó es: ¿en qué medida va acompañado el crecimiento de la media ordinaria con el crecimiento de la media general? Un indicador clave de este enfoque es la elasticidad del crecimiento de la media general, o la variación porcentual de la media general sobre la variación porcentual de la media usual. Nuestro análisis empírico calcula esta elasticidad del crecimiento para un conjunto de datos que contiene 144 encuestas de hogares en 20 países durante los últimos 25 años. Entre otros resultados, hallamos que la elasticidad del crecimiento de la media sensible al extremo inferior es positiva, pero considerablemente más pequeña que uno. Esto sugiere que los ingresos de los pobres no crecen según una relación de uno a uno con los ingresos promedio. Number 4270 2001-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-453&pub_file_name=pubWP-453.pdf application/pdf James E. Foster Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Given the numerous and widely acknowledged benefits of a well-functioning housing market, it is vital to understand the degree of competition in that market, which is the starting point for undertaking any policy tool aimed at improving its efficiency. This paper tests the extent of competition in the housing market in Santiago, Chile using a two-step methodology. In the first step, using a hedonic price model, the Santiago housing market is divided into sub-markets, which are analyzed separately. The second step is the tacit collusion test itself, which compares the industry markup with the business cycle in each sub-market using panel data regression models. Evidence of collusion is found in certain sub-markets. Number 4735 2011-07 O54 R21 R23 R28 R31 R38 R58 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36275291 application/pdf Fernando Lefort Miguel Vargas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Returns to labor for workers with similar endowments of productive characteristics in Ecuador are influenced by two characteristics that, arguably, should play no role on the determination of wages: gender and ethnicity. This paper analyzes wage gaps due to both characteristics in Ecuador for the period 2003-2007, applying a matching comparisons technique developed in Ñopo (2008). The results indicate ethnic wage gaps that are notably higher than gender wage gaps. Furthermore, ethnic wage gaps are higher among males than among females. Differences in human capital characteristics, however, explain almost one-half of the ethnic wage gaps but only a small fraction of the gender wage gaps. Both gender and ethnic wage gaps are more pronounced at the lower extremes of the earnings distribution. Matching, Non-parametric, Wage Gaps, Gender, Ethnicity, Latin America Number 4625 2009-04 C14 D31 J16 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-679&pub_file_name=pubWP-679.pdf application/pdf Lourdes Gallardo Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the impact of regional integration agreements (RIAs) on the location of foreign direct investment (FDI), using data on bilateral outward FDI stocks from the OECD International Direct Investment Statistics. The dataset covers FDI from 20 source countries, all of them from the OECD, to 60 host countries, from 1982 through 1999. Using panel data analysis with country-pair fixed effects, we find that common membership in an RIA with a source country increases FDI from that source by around 27 percent. Countries that are more open, and whose factor proportions differ more from those in the source country are likely to benefit more, as they tend to receive FDI of the vertical variety, which responds more favorably to integration. We also find that the increase in the size of the market associated with regional integration initiatives contributes to attract more FDI to the RIA as a whole. However, only the countries in the RIA that offer a more attractive overall environment for FDI are likely to be winners in this game. Finally, we also find evidence of a small FDI diversion effect. Our results suggest that regional integration, on average, contributes to attracting FDI, but the benefits are unlikely to be distributed evenly. Number 4343 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-492&pub_file_name=pubWP-492.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Ernesto H. Stein Christian Daude

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44682019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se construye y emplea una nueva base de datos para evaluar la relación que hay entre la propiedad de los bancos y el desempeño de los mismos, y se obtienen distintos indicadores para países en desarrollo y para países industrializados. Se descubre que los bancos propiedad del Estado en países en desarrollo tienden a exhibir una rentabilidad más baja y costos más elevados que sus contrapartes privadas, y que lo opuesto ocurre con los bancos foráneos. Se determina que no existe una correlación clara entre la propiedad y el desempeño de los bancos ubicados en países industrializados. Posteriormente, a fin de evaluar si la diferencia en el desempeño entre los bancos públicos y los privados depende de factores políticos, se analiza si esa diferencia aumenta durante los años de elecciones y se descubren elementos que corroboran esta hipótesis. Number 4468 2006-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-566&pub_file_name=pubWP-566.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza Alejandro Micco Mónica Yañez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Although many countries are aggressively implementing the One Laptop per Child (OLPC) program, there is a lack of empirical evidence on its effects. This paper presents the impact of the first large-scale randomized evaluation of the OLPC program, using data collected after 15 months of implementation in 319 primary schools in rural Peru. The results indicate that the program increased the ratio of computers per student from 0. 12 to 1. 18 in treatment schools. This expansion in access translated into substantial increases in use both at school and at home. No evidence is found of effects on enrollment and test scores in Math and Language. Some positive effects are found, however, in general cognitive skills as measured by Raven’s Progressive Matrices, a verbal fluency test and a Coding test. Number 4764 2012-02 C93 I21 I28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36706954 application/pdf Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org Pablo Ibarraran Santiago Cueto Ana Santiago Eugenio Severin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This policy brief reviews the experience of the countries under the Euro currency, focusing on those that have been under significant pressure in recent years— Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, referred to as “emerging” economies. At first they experienced stable growth and converged to the most advanced countries, but subsequent adjustment has proven elusive due to macroeconomic conditions, worsening structural deficiencies, and incomplete integration. The conditions for the survival of the Euro zone are complex and still far from fulfillment. While Latin America has recently experienced a similar period of stable growth, there is no room for complacency. The main lesson from Europe’s experience is that Latin America must take advantage of the current context of growth, stability and optimism in order to carry out much-needed reforms that will leave countries adequately prepared to face a downturn in the world economy. Number 4786 2012-06 E42 E61 E65 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36955324 application/pdf Carlos Hurtado

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El contagio financiero y las paradas repentinas de los ingresos de capitales que se experimentan durante las crisis de los mercados emergentes pueden originarse en una combinación explosiva de falta de credibilidad de políticas e imperfecciones del mercado mundial de capitales que aqueja a las economías emergentes con monedas nacionales. De ahí que este trabajo proponga que el abandono de la moneda nacional en favor de la adopción de una moneda fuerte puede contribuir a reducir considerablemente la vulnerabilidad de los países emergentes a esas crisis. La credibilidad de sus políticas financieras se verá realzada considerablemente por la subordinación implícita a las instituciones de diseño de políticas del emisor de la moneda fuerte. Su acceso a los mercados internacionales de capitales mejorará del mismo modo que los conocimientos, la experiencia y la información que ya reúnen los inversionistas mundiales para evaluar la política monetaria que el emisor de moneda fuerte aplicaría a las economías emergentes. Aún así, la adopción de una moneda fuerte no elimina los ciclos económicos ni descarta todas las formas de crisis financieras ni resuelve los problemas fiscales graves que aquejan a las economías emergentes, y ello conlleva ceder la potestad sobre el monedaje y los posibles beneficios de tener una política monetaria independiente. Pero esas desventajas se quedan pequeñas ante la necesidad apremiante de permitir que los países emergentes accedan a los mercados mundiales de capitales sin exponerse al riesgo de paradas repentinas recurrentes. Number 4310 2002-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-474&pub_file_name=pubWP-474.pdf application/pdf Enrique Mendoza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41592019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés) En este trabajo se cuantifica la movilidad social observando la medida en la que los antecedentes familiares determinan el éxito socioeconómico. Se propone un índice de movilidad social para países en desarrollo basado en la correlación de brechas académicas entre hermanos. . Number 4159 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-393&pub_file_name=pubWP-393.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Se ha demostrado que en Estados Unidos el sistema de seguridad social y otros tipos de traspasos gubernamentales han ayudado a las personas pobres de cierta edad, como por ejemplo las viudas, a vivir independientemente. En este trabajo se analiza si el apoyo financiero oficial ha contribuido a que aumente la probabilidad de que los ancianos más vulnerables también puedan vivir solos en América Latina. Se analizan específicamente los casos de México y Uruguay, países que durante los años 80 experimentaron reformas gubernamentales favorables a los ancianos más vulnerables. Se concluye que la mejora del logro educativo ha sido el factor principal que ha permitido que los ancianos pobres vivan independientemente en zonas rurales de México, no el sistema gubernamental. Por otro lado, en Uruguay, en el caso de ancianas solteras, el aumento del ingreso proveniente del sistema de seguridad social explica la mayor parte del aumento de la probabilidad de vivir por su cuenta. Number 4232 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-432&pub_file_name=pubWP-432.pdf application/pdf Naoko Shinkai

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper looks at the relationship between health and income. After discussing the general context of health improvements in Latin America during the last few decades, the study elaborates on the interrelationships between the physical and social determinants of health, the complexities that arise in attributing earnings differentials to variations in health status, and the difficulties of accurately measuring health status. The paper presents a methodology for estimating the impact of health on earnings that addresses problems of measurement error and endogeneity, then summarizes the main findings of related studies undertaken as part of a larger project. These studies show that health status does have a significant, although modest, impact on earnings in four Latin American countries. Furthermore, environmental conditions (such as housing and sanitation) appear to have significant impacts on health status, compared to health services and public health facilities, which show little influence. The universally strong relationship between education and earnings is only modestly reduced by the inclusion of health status despite a general expectation that estimated returns to education were, in part, capturing the frequently unmeasured effects of health. By analyzing these relationships together-health determinants and the impact of health on earnings-we can assess the magnitude and importance of the `human capital`component of health status, validate and compare a range of health indicators, and identify promising areas for public policy to invest in health improvements. Number 3108 2000-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-409&pub_file_name=pubR-409.pdf application/pdf William D. Savedoff T. Paul Schultz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Many Latin American nations have recently implemented liberal trade regimes, often as part of a larger set of market-oriented reforms, and have abandoned their industrialization policies based on import substitution. In the 1980s, Chile, Mexico, and Bolivia were among the continent`s first nations to slash tariff rates and virtually eliminate quantitative restrictions on imports. They were followed by many others, including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Jamaica, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Trinidad and Tobago. All these countries are now much more exposed to international competition than ever before. But is this a good idea? Are labor rights really more restricted in export-oriented Asian nations than they are in Latin America? And if so, are Latin American workers prejudiced by Asia`s lower standards? Number 4132 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-380&pub_file_name=pubWP-380.pdf application/pdf Patrick Belser

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los economistas han examinado las repercusiones de la regulación de los mercados laborales en el nivel de empleo. Sin embargo, hay muchos motivos para pensar que dichas repercusiones difieren de un tipo de trabajador a otro. En este trabajo aprovechamos la amplitud de la variación, desusadamente grande, de las políticas laborales en Chile para analizar el modo en que la normativa de diversos mercados laborales incide en la distribución del empleo y en los niveles de empleo a través de los diversos grupos de edad, sexo y capacitación. A tal fin, empleamos una muestra de encuestas de hogares representativos que cubren el período de 1960 a 1998, y cuantifican la evolución de las disposiciones sobre estabilidad laboral y el salario mínimo en el tiempo. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los efectos sobre la distribución son considerables. Hallamos que las disposiciones sobre la estabilidad laboral y el salario mínimo reducen la proporción de puestos de trabajo disponibles para trabajadores jóvenes y trabajadores no calificados, así como los niveles de empleo en esos segmentos. También hallamos efectos considerables sobre la distribución del empleo entre mujeres y hombres. Number 4346 2003-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-494&pub_file_name=pubWP-494.pdf application/pdf Claudio Montenegro Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the effects of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the school environment on educational achievement. To quantify these effects, the impact is evaluated of a project run by the municipality of Guayaquil, Ecuador, which provides computer-aided instruction in mathematics and language to students in primary schools. Using an experimental design, it is found that the program had a positive impact on mathematics test scores (about 0.30 of a standard deviation) and a negative but statistically insignificant effect on language test scores. The impact is heterogeneous and is much larger for those students at the top of the achievement distribution. Information and communications technology, Education, Experimental design, Ecuador Number 4698 2011-01 C93 I21 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-223&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-223.pdf application/pdf Paul Carrillo Mercedes Onofa Juan Ponce

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio presenta el caso del Perú. El documento brinda una descripción de los actores principales involucrados en el proceso presupuestario y de sus interacciones. Describe los principales determinantes políticos y económicos del desempeño fiscal y considera el impacto de los arreglos políticos e institucionales que gobiernan el funcionamiento del proceso presupuestario en sus diferentes etapas. Number 2001 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-102&pub_file_name=pubCSI-102_esp.pdf application/pdf José Valderrama Luis Carranza Jorge F. Chávez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47942019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates the relationship between parents’ educational attainment and income and children’s schooling in Uruguay between 1982 and 2010. This relationship is interpreted as a measure of intergenerational social mobility, and the paper reports evidence that it has decreased over time. The paper finds that the probability that the children of the more educated remain among the more educated has grown, with analogous results for the less educated. As a result, the improvements in education of the 1980s and 1990s were unevenly distributed, with a bias against the disadvantaged. The paper also finds that while entrepreneurship status and belonging to the middle class matter in terms of social mobility as measured by compulsory education, i. e. , primary school and the first three years of secondary school, they do not have a notable effect on non- compulsory education, i. e. , the last three years of secondary school and higher. Number 4794 2012-07 I24 J62 L26 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36982123 application/pdf Nestor Gandelman Virginia Robano

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The author identifies sources of volatility in Argentina that include weak international financial links, a recurrent credit crunch and financial underdevelopment problem, a fragile fiscal situation, and a pervasive profit and collateral squeeze mechanism brought about by a rigid labor market and exchange rate system. The paper`s policy recommendations include improving external financial links, continuing and accelerating the path of domestic financial deepening, giving very high priority to the reduction of the public debt burden problem, and addressing the fundamental incompatibility between labor market rigidities and a highly inflexible exchange rate system. Number 4213 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-422&pub_file_name=pubWP-422.pdf application/pdf Ricardo J. Caballero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo presenta evidencia según la cual la crisis reciente del sector hipotecario en Colombia fue consecuencia del incremento en la relación entre el saldo de los créditos y el valor de las garantías (LTV o loan-to-value ratio) que aumentó la vulnerabilidad de los hogares al ciclo económico. El incremento del LTV fue ocasionado por el efecto conjunto del mayor endeudamiento de los hogares, las reglas de indexación de los saldos de los créditos hipotecarios vigentes hasta 1999 y la desvalorización de los inmuebles que se registró a partir de 1995. Por su parte, la dramática contracción en los desembolsos de nuevos créditos puso en marcha un fuerte ciclo recesivo tanto del sector de la construcción como de la economía en general, lo cual se tradujo en un mayor nivel de desempleo que deterioró aún más en la calidad de los créditos hipotecarios. El trabajo argumenta que la crisis se profundizó y prolongó por factores extraeconómicos, asociados a la fuerte inestabilidad jurídica que obstaculizó tanto la oferta como la demanda de crédito entre 1999 y 2001. Las conclusiones enfatizan la importancia de evitar las burbujas asociadas a fuertes entradas de capitales así como la necesidad de ajustar los avalúos inmobiliarios en función del ciclo económico para moderar el riesgo asumido por deudores y acreedores durante la fase expansionista. Number 4355 2003-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-500&pub_file_name=pubWP-500.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Cardenas Alejandro Badel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint A prerequisite for the adoption of redistributive policies in a democracy is that there be elected representatives who are either committed to or who have an incentive to advocate for such policies. To evaluate the prospects of such an outcome, this pa- per develops a theory exploring two fundamental factors at play during elections – the critical political stage where citizens choose their representatives. The first is the lack of information about the policy inclinations of candidates. The second refers to two motivations compelling candidates into politics (and possibly at odds with each other): the opportunity to implement one’s favored policies or to extract rents. Results indicate the existence of an equilibrium where high inequality and low redistribution can coexist. The theory’s assumptions and outcomes are explored empirically using individual-level data collected in presidential election years in Brazil. Number 4790 2012-09 C11 C70 D72 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37091076 application/pdf Fabiana Machado fabianam@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a new dataset on electoral systems and outlines its potential uses in further research exploring the connections between electoral systems and economic outcomes. The dataset provides indicators of the degree to which individual politicians can further their careers by appealing to narrow geographic constituencies on the one hand, or party constituencies on the other. Number 4289 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-463&pub_file_name=pubWP-463.pdf application/pdf Jessica Seddon Wallack Alejandro Gaviria Ugo Panizza Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews the recent experience of a half-dozen Latin American inflation targeting (IT) nations. Repeated and large deviations from the standard IT framework are documented: exchange market interventions have been lasting and widespread; the real exchange rate has often become a target of policy, though this target is seldom made explicit; a range of other non-conventional policy tools, especially changes in reserve requirements but occasionally taxes or restrictions on international capital movements, also came into common use. As in developed nations, during the 2008-2009 crisis issues of liquidity provision took center stage. A first evaluation of the emerging modified framework of monetary policy is also attempted. In general terms, the new approach seems to have been effective, at the very least since the region weathered the crisis reasonably well. But also, and perhaps more importantly, many questions remain about the desirability of non-conventional monetary policies in Latin America. Number IDB-WP-384 2013-03 E52 E58 F41 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37635005 application/pdf Luis Felipe Cespedes Roberto Chang Andres Velasco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Uruguay ha asistido a una disminución de las tasas de fecundidad y a un aumento de la actividad femenina y de los niveles educativos de la población, al igual que la gran mayoría de los países en el correr del siglo. Este estudio aborda estos cambios desde la perspectiva de las decisiones de los hogares recurriendo a la construcción de pseudopaneles a partir de microdatos provenientes de las Encuestas Continuas de Hogares del período 1986-1997. El análisis indica que los cambios relacionados con la asignación del tiempo de las mujeres responden básicamente a variaciones de comportamiento entre las generaciones. En particular, en el contexto de retornos positivos a la educación y crecientes para las generaciones nuevas, la inversión en capital educativo se incentiva prolongando el período dedicado a estudiar. A su vez, estas decisiones se interrelacionan con el rezago en la edad del casamiento, así como la reducción del número de hijos y el aumento de la tasa de actividad de las mujeres casadas. Por último, estas evoluciones se acompañan del aumento del divorcio y la formación de hogares monoparentales. Con respecto a la inversión en capital humano de las generaciones recientes, el estudio encuentra que en los últimos años, las tasas de deserción en la enseñanza media dependen principalmente de la edad y del contexto del hogar. Así, no se detecta cambios de comportamiento recientes significativos relacionados a la cohorte con respecto a la conducta de los adolescentes. Sin embargo, un cambio generacional del comportamiento de los egresados de la enseñanza media da cuenta de una expansión de la asistencia a la enseñanza terciaria en el marco del un crecimiento de la rentabilidad de esta educación, en particular para los más jóvenes. Number 3114 2000-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-416&pub_file_name=pubR-416.pdf application/pdf Marisa Bucheli Andrea Vigorito Daniel Miles

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Have the economies of Latin America become less volatile as a result of the economic stabilization and structural reforms implemented during the past decade? The answer is a qualified “yes. ” The reforms have helped, but more needs to be done to ensure the macroeconomic stability required for accelerated and more equitable long-run growth in the region. Structural reforms have helped reduce volatility, but volatility remains high by international standards and has not declined in all countries. The paper offers a policy agenda, raising questions for discussion in four key areas: (i) How can fiscal management be made more stabilizing? (ii) How can management of domestic financial markets contribute to lower economic volatility? (iii) How should capital flows be managed? (iv) What is the role of the exchange rate regime? Number 4076 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-349&pub_file_name=pubWP-349.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El principal objetivo de este estudio es determinar en forma empírica los determinantes económicos de los spreads bancarios en Chile. Los factores que determinan los spreads bancarios pueden ser clasificados como factores de carácter microeconómico (que se refieren básicamente a la administración de los bancos comerciales, manejo de riesgo y al funcionamiento del mercado), factores macroeconómicos (política monetaria e inflación, política cambiaria y evolución del tipo de cambio, etc. ) y factores institucionales (legislación bancaria y supervisión). Muchos de estos factores han sido sugeridos por la teoría, por lo cual, la pregunta acerca de cuáles de estos factores son más preponderantes en la determinación del margen de los bancos pasa a ser una pregunta empírica. La economía chilena presenta un caso interesante de analizar, puesto que después de la crisis de 1982-83 en que se liquidaron y se intervino la administración de varios bancos, comenzó un desarrollo de un sistema financiero completamente diferente al existente a esa fecha. En primer lugar, se modificó la legislación imponiendo restricciones sobre la concentración de la cartera de activos de los bancos. En segundo lugar, se ejercieron controles más estrictos en la administración de los bancos por parte de la autoridad, a través de la Superintendencia de Bancos y Sociedades Financieras. Todo esto se fue dando en un contexto de "sequía" de capitales externos entre 1984 y 1988, período en el cual, préstamos voluntarios a Chile eran inexistentes (véase Agosin, Fuentes y Letelier, 1993). Number 3028 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-329&pub_file_name=pubR-329.pdf application/pdf Miguel Basch Rodrigo Fuentes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La reforma educacional que Chile está implementando requiere para su éxito que los maestros se pongan a la cabeza de la reforma, y para ello es necesario fortalecer la profesión docente y la carrera de pedagogía. Diseñar políticas efectivas hacia los maestros supone estudiar las características socioeconómicas y motivacionales de éstos, así como los incentivos y factores institucionales que determinan la composición del cuerpo docente y que influencian su desempeño profesional. Esto es lo que se ha propuesto la investigación que resumimos apretadamente en este trabajo. Parte importante del estudio se ha basado en la recolección de información que no estaba disponible en el país, la que se ha obtenido a través de encuestas a profesores de enseñanza básica, directores, estudiantes de pedagogía y de carreras similares. Number 3102 2000-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-403&pub_file_name=pubR-403.pdf application/pdf Alejandra Mizala Pablo González Pilar Romaguera Andrea Guzman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses a newly developed panel data set for Venezuela in the period between 1994 and 2002 to analyze three basic questions. the first relates to the influence of personal characteristics and previous labor market experience in the choice of different search methods. The second question addresses the effectiveness of different search methods in moving out of unemployment, controlling for personal characteristics and previous job characteristics. Finally, the third questionpoints to the issue of former labor status by analyzing the relative weight of search method and previous job status in the determination of the likelihood of landing a job or dropping out of the labor force. We conclude that previous job status is a primary determinant of success in moving to employment, and that the use of employment agencies increases the likelihood of that move within each labor status. Number 4383 2004-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-519&pub_file_name=pubWP-519.pdf application/pdf Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org Cristobal Ruiz-Tagle

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo examina los efectos de la expansión del agua en los barriadas urbanas de Argentina. Se encuentran grandes reducciones en la presencia, frecuencia y severidad de episodios de diarrea entre los niños de las viviendas que han sido alcanzadas por la expansión de la red. Aún más, las conexiones de la expansión de agua inducen ahorros ya que estas familias pueden sustituir agua de cañeria por agua de procedencia más distante y más cara. Estos efectos de ahorro y salud también son importantes para las viviendas que previamente tenían conexiones clandestinas a la red de agua, que era gratuita pero de baja calidad. Number 3235 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-527&pub_file_name=pubR-527.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Galiani Martín González Rozada Ernesto Schargrodsky

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The OECD labor market has undergone major changes over the past two decades. The most evident of these changes is the rise in the number of job-seekers. In 1997, there were more than 35 million people unemployed in the OECD area as a whole, some 6 million more than in the mid-1980s and almost 25 million more than in the early 1970s. These figures hide profound differences across countries. In the major European countries, unemployment has increased dramatically over the past two decades and in some of them, including Italy, Spain, and France, increases that were initially cyclical have tended to become structural over time. Number 4136 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-382&pub_file_name=pubWP-382.pdf application/pdf Stefano Scarpetta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este documento se pasa revista a un número de actores, instituciones y ámbitos claves en el proceso de diseño de políticas, con el objeto de examinar el papel de cada uno, así como sus incentivos y capacidades en la formulación de políticas públicas, recurriendo a la extensa obra publicada en politología y economía política. Se analiza a cada uno de los actores individualmente, pero también en su articulación con los demás actores, vinculando los efectos de las instituciones políticas sobre sus incentivos y las características del juego de formulación de políticas. Se espera que este documento brinde a los investigadores los instrumentos necesarios para continuar analizando los procesos de diseño de políticas, no sólo en los países latinoamericanos sino también en los de otras regiones del mundo. (Disponible en Inglés) Number 4484 2007-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-580&pub_file_name=pubWP-580.pdf application/pdf Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues that welfare programs are linked with the destruction of social capital, as measured by interpersonal trust in laboratory games. The paper employs experimental data for representative samples of individuals in four Latin American capital cities (Bogota, Lima, Montevideo, and San Jose), finding that participation in welfare programs damage trust. This result is robust to the inclusion of individual risk measures and a broad array of controls. The findings also support the notion that low take-up rates may be due to stigma linked with trust and social capital, rather than transaction costs. Experiments, Surveys, Social Programs, Trust, Stigma, Latin America Number 4609 2009-01 D01 O12 O10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-668&pub_file_name=pubWP-668.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org Vanessa Rios

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se pasa revista al crecimiento de las exportaciones en general en Chile y se concentra la atención en tres casos específicos de surgimiento de actividades de exportación exitosas en ese país: vino, puerco y arándanos. En cada uno de esos casos específicos se trata cómo empresas, asociaciones y gobiernos a varios niveles han manejado crisis de mercado y facilitado el suministro de los bienes públicos necesarios para cada actividad. El análisis de estos casos específicos presenta además una descripción de las características de los actores principales en cada ramo de actividad así como las externalidades positivas que brindan a los emuladores, especialmente la difusión de conocimientos sobre exportación. También se presenta en cada área un caso opuesto de actividad menos exitosa (un exportador poco exitoso de vino, otras clases de bayas y la producción de carne de puerco como producto básico (commodity), en vez de cortes especiales, respectivamente) así como un tratamiento de implicaciones de políticas. Exports, Agriculture, Chile Number 3266 2009-02 H41 L26 L65 L84 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-552&pub_file_name=pubR-552.pdf application/pdf Manuel Agosin Claudio Bravo-Ortega

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analizan los efectos económicos de la legislación de protección del empleo en una muestra de países industrializados y en desarrollo. Los análisis indican que una legislación más estricta desacelera considerablemente la rotación de puestos de trabajo y que este efecto es más pronunciado en sectores que son intrínsecamente más inestables. En el trabajo también se descubre que el empleo y el valor agregado disminuyen en los sectores más afectados y que los efectos sobre el empleo y la producción son impulsados por una baja en el ingreso neto de empresas. Por contraste, el empleo promedio por planta no se ve afectado de manera considerable. Number 4497 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-592&pub_file_name=pubWP-592.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Raising labor productivity is recognized as a critical factor for increasing economic growth and reducing poverty levels in Latin America. Low levels of education continue to be singled out as the main obstacle to higher productivity in the region. We examine the scope for education to lift labor incomes above poverty levels in Latin America and find that in many countries education, by itself, has a positive, but limited, potential to increase wages above a minimum level. In general, the prospects are dim because progress in raising average schooling levels has been slow even under the best historical scenarios. We also examine whether the apparent failure of education can be explained by low wage returns to schooling, and poor underlying conditions. We find that investments in education continue to have important payoffs but poor underlying conditions explain the modest prospect for the role of education in the short run. This leads us to consider what additional policies should be pursued in order to ensure higher productivity for workers in the region. Number 4297 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-468&pub_file_name=pubWP-468.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Recent economic developments highlight Latin America`s vulnerability to economic and financial turmoil that is triggered by events in distant corners of the globe. The Asian financial crisis that began in 1997 and the more recent Russian crisis have left the region profoundly shaken, and living in fear of a full-scale collapse. This "contagion" has occurred through a number of channels. The collapse of Asian demand has contributed to the recent slide in world commodity prices, cutting into the commodity-dependent region`s export income and undermining the public finances in a number of countries. The Russian devaluation has raised the spectre of sovereign default, making investors around the globe more wary of increasing their cross-border exposure. The financial crises in Asia and Russia have also severely undermined balance sheets of emerging-market investors, reducing their capacity to invest in the region, and forcing them into fire sales of their Latin American investments. In this paper we lay out the fiscal and financial policies that can help protect economies from the kind of global financial turbulence the world is now experiencing. Exchange rate policies are discussed in a separate paper. Number 4172 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-401&pub_file_name=pubWP-401.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Uruguay generates a variety of policy outcomes. First, there are relatively stable policies, such as those allowing for the commercial and financial openness of the country. Then there are inflexible and low-quality policies, such as those related to social policies, some areas of state reform (civil servants wages and hiring mechanisms), the bankruptcy regime, etc. Finally, there are volatile outcomes resulting from economic shocks, such as those related to discretionary public spending. In the cases in which historical precedence or the availability of external enforcement devices do not lead to relatively stable policies, the main outer feature of Uruguayan policies is rigidity. The source of rigidity appears to be a mixture of institutional factors (multiple veto points, factionalized parties and direct democracy mechanisms) and political conflict (divergent policy preferences), in which it is very costly to move from the status quo due to the credible threat of policy reversal. Political institutions in Uruguay are conducive to achieving political compromise in the short run, but cannot effectively cooperate in establishing stable and flexible policies in the long run. The difficulty in achieving intertemporal political exchanges is consistent with the main characteristics of the political environment: a large number of key political actors and veto points, a relevant amount of unobservable political maneuvering, poor enforcement technologies in the economic arena, a politically influenced bureaucracy, political exchanges occurring outside the legislative arena, a particular constellation of parties and preferences and costly policymaking and institutional changes. Number 3200 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-510&pub_file_name=pubR-510.pdf application/pdf Mario Bergara Andrés Pereyra Juan Andrés Moraes Daniel Chasquetti Daniel Buquet Adolfo Garcé Rubén Tansini

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the impact of international financial integration on credit markets in Latin America, using a cross-country dataset covering 17 countries between 1996 and 2008. It is found that financial integration amplifies the impact of international financial shocks on aggregate credit and interest rate fluctuations. Nonetheless, the net impact of integration on deepening credit markets dominates for the large majority of states of nature. The paper also uses a detailed bank-level dataset that covers more than 500 banks for a similar time period to explore the role of financial integration—captured through the participation of foreign banks—in propagating external shocks. It is found that interest rates charged and loans supplied by foreign-owned banks respond more to external financial shocks than those supplied by domestically owned banks. This does not hold for all foreign banks. Spanish banks in the sample behave more like domestic banks and do not amplify the impact of foreign shocks on credit and interest rates. Foreign Banks, Credit, Interest Rates, Financial Shocks Number 4651 2010-02 F36 G0 G21 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-116&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-116.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Liliana Rojas-Suarez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study analyzes the current situation of the rental market of Argentina. It is characterized by a growing percentage of households demanding houses for renting up to the point that, for first time in more than 50 years, the ownership rate dropped between population censuses. Tenants are middle and upper income families, as the poorest have increasingly owned and/or occupied substandard housing, sometimes without title. The lack of a mortgage market after 2001 explains the surge of the rental market. Given the increase in rents, some groups were more adversely affected. Other features affecting the supply and demand in this market are also analyzed. Number 4823 2012-12 B22 G21 R21 R30 R31 R38 R52 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36664041 application/pdf Ramiro Moya

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, this paper evaluates the effects of a rule that incorporates not only the interest rate but also the legal reserve requirements as instruments of monetary policy. It is found that reserve requirements can be used to achieve the Central Bank’s inflation objectives. The use of this instrument, however, produces a real appreciation of the Uruguayan peso. When the Central Bank uses the monetary policy rate as an instrument, the effect of an increase in reserve requirements is to contribute to reducing the negative impact on consumption, investment and output. Nevertheless, the quantitative results in terms of inflation reduction are rather poor. The policy rate becomes more effective in reducing inflation when the reserve requirement instrument is solely directed at achieving financial stability. The paper’s main policy conclusion is that a well-targeted non- conventional policy instrument can help to effectively control inflation. Number IDB-WP-486 2014-02 C61 C68 E52 E58 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38632475 application/pdf Martín González-Rozada Martín Sola

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) Given the multiplicity of factors that can affect business development for both the entrepreneurs themselves and for national economic authorities, it is useful to establish the severity of these obstacles so that their efforts can focus on the most critical problems. With that objective, this study analyzes two new and very valuable sources of information. First, we use the results from a set of "Business Environment Surveys" conducted in 73 countries, which researched the importance and severity of a series of problems that can affect the operation and growth of firms. Second, we analyze information from the balance sheets of large companies in 52 countries in various regions of the world to detect some features of Latin American firms, and analyze the determinants of the size of large companies, on the assumption that these firms are on the frontline of the possibilities of business development offered by each country. Number 4257 2001-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-447&pub_file_name=pubWP-447.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Patricia Cortés

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Para el momento en que se realizó este trabajo existía una inquietud generalizada sobre el buen estado de la economía estadounidense. Hay elementos de juicio concluyentes que indican que el ritmo del crecimiento se ha desacelerado, lo que ha llevado a la Reserva Federal a recortar las tasas de interés en dos oportunidades (para un total de 100 puntos base hasta ahora). Como ya es habitual, ante esta clase de viraje, analistas y diseñadores de políticas por igual se preguntan si Estados Unidos conseguirá un aterrizaje suave o si el desmejoramiento de la coyuntura será más grave y prolongado; en el peor escenario, la nueva debilidad puede anunciar el fin de la nueva economía. Además, las recientes sorpresas inflacionarias no han sido nada alentadoras, ya que cifras inflacionarias superiores a lo anticipado pueden entorpecer el deseo y la capacidad de la Reserva Federal de actuar de manera anticíclica. Number 4280 2001-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-458&pub_file_name=pubWP-458.pdf application/pdf Carmen Reinhart Guillermo A. Calvo Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42992019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint We offer an alternative explanation for t he fall of Argentina’s Convertibility Program based on the country’s vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that wreaks havoc in countries that are heavily dollarized in their liabilities, turning otherwise sustainable fiscal and corporate sector positions into unsustainable ones. In particular, we stress that the required change in relative prices is larger the more closed an economy is in terms of its sup ply of tradable goods. By contrasting Argentina’s performance relative to other Latin American countries that were also subject to the Sudden Stop triggered by the Russian crisis of 1998, we identify key vulnerability indicators that separated Argentina from its peers. We also provide an explanation for the political maelstrom that ensued after the Sudden Stop, based on a War of Attrition argument related to the wealth redistribution conflict triggered by the Sudden Stop and fiscal collapse. This framewo rk also provides elements to rationalize the banking crisis that accompanied the fall of Convertibility. Number 4299 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-469&pub_file_name=pubWP-469.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Ernesto Talvi Guillermo A. Calvo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper discusses how young people become adults in Latin America and how that process affects educational attainment. An examination of four countries at three levels of development shows that individuals` educational attainment is closely linked to the decisions that young people make regarding adult roles, here referred to as emancipation patterns. The paper documents differences among countries in the age at which young people start working, marry and leave the educational system. Factor and hazard analyses further show how these dimensions vary according to gender and income within countries and how they affect the chances that young people will remain in the educational system. Findings indicate that countries` development levels strongly affect the modal ages at which people become adults, hastening the process in less-developed countries and delaying it at higher stages of development. Second, within countries males and females present distinct risk factors regarding educational attainment; public roles (work) increase the risk of drop-out for men and private roles (marriage) increase this risk for women. In addition, and as expected, lower income groups are more at risk and present earlier adoption of adult values than higher income groups. The interrelation of income and gender operate differently in emancipation patterns and in how public and private adult roles affect the chances of remaining in the educational system. Consequently, in order to increase educational attainment the sequence and timing of adult role adoption have to be factored into policies. Number 3129 2001-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-432&pub_file_name=pubR-432.pdf application/pdf Fernando Filgueira Alvaro Fuentes Carlos Filgueira

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presentan aspectos fundamentales de la manera en que se debería realizar la supervisión de la banca en América Latina. La concentración de personas de gran patrimonio en América Latina y la consecuente falta de liquidez de los mercados bursátiles de la región permiten que los inversionistas controlen los bancos y subviertan el propósito de los requisitos de capital, aún cuando el banco mismo esté sujeto a normas contables rigurosas. El análisis pone al descubierto una serie de implicaciones de políticas. Tres de las recomendaciones de políticas derivadas de este análisis se pueden aplicar eficazmente en el corto plazo. Las autoridades latinoamericanas deberían concentrarse en lo siguiente: mejorar los mercados que ya funcionan en América Latina, que actualmente son mercados de pasivos bancarios; limitar considerablemente los sistemas oficiales de seguridad para los pasivos bancarios, de manera que los bancos riesgosos tengan que pagar un precio elevado por aumentar sus pasivos, y alentar políticas macroeconómicas que jueguen un papel más importante en la restricción del riesgo bancario en América Latina que en los países industrializados. Number 4051 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-336&pub_file_name=pubWP-336.pdf application/pdf Liliana Rojas-Suárez Steven R. Weisbrod

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento resume el estado de la salud sexual y reproductiva (SSR) en algunos países de América Latina y el Caribe, usando las encuestas de Demografía y Salud para seleccionar países de acuerdo con la etapa de la transición demográfica en que se encuentran. Los resultados indican avances en algunas dimensiones, siendo la situación mucho más favorable en los países de fecundidad baja y en los grupos de mayor nivel social. Sin embargo, aún se presentan vacíos importantes, especialmente en los países de transición rezagada. La evidencia sugiere que la falta de información y de acceso a los servicios de SSR, al igual que la existencia de barreras sociales y culturales, limitan el ejercicio pleno de la vida SR de las mujeres de los países de fecundidad alta y grupos menos favorecidos. Number 4572 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-632&pub_file_name=pubWP-632_esp.pdf application/pdf Carmen Elisa Flórez Victoria Eugenia Soto

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La estabilización de las economías y una transformación profunda pero silenciosa de las instituciones ocurrieron en forma paralela en América Latina en las últimas décadas. Este artículo analiza los canales de influencia de los cambios de las instituciones fiscales y de los sistemas políticos en los resultados fiscales, en la inflación y en la probabilidad de ocurrencia y costos de las crisis bancarias. Aunque la fragmentación del poder político tendió a debilitar la disciplina fiscal, las reformas de las instituciones fiscales corrigieron esa tendencia. La mayor competencia política y las restricciones al poder del Ejecutivo hicieron posible el éxito de los bancos centrales independientes, mitigaron algunos canales de riesgo de crisis bancarias y redujeron los costos de largo plazo de dichas crisis. Por consiguiente, los sistemas políticos merecen buena parte del mérito de la estabilización. instituciones fiscales, instituciones monetarias, crisis bancarias, sistemas políticos, fragmentación política Number 4615 2008-11 E58 E62 G28 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-649&pub_file_name=pubWP-649_esp.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper’s model suggests that a strong leader, sometimes with little legislative oversight, may nevertheless benefit from public support. The argument is that this support is induced as an attempt by the poor to counter the subversion of public protection of property rights by the rich, and to achieve this goal they are often willing to pay the price of the leader’s diversion of tax revenues for private use. The paper then examines survey data on individual attitudes toward strong leadership and finds their pattern to be consistent with the model’s predictions; specifically, support for strong leadership is inversely related to individual income and to countrywide income inequality. Number 4563 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-628&pub_file_name=pubWP-628.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Few would dispute that sovereign defaults entail significant economic costs, including, most notably, important output losses. However, most of the evidence supporting this conventional wisdom, based on annual observations, suffers from serious measurement and identification problems. To address these drawbacks, we examine the impact of default on growth by looking at quarterly data for emerging economies. We find that, contrary to what is typically assumed, output contractions precede defaults. Moreover, we find that the trough of the contraction coincides with the quarter of default, and that output starts to grow thereafter, indicating that default episode seems to mark the beginning of the economic recovery rather than a further decline. This suggests that, whatever negative effects a default may have on output, those effects result from anticipation of a default rather than the default itself. Number 4485 2006-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-581&pub_file_name=pubWP-581.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza Eduardo Levy Yeyati

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio cuenta de cuatro partes, las cuales son, primero, La Importancia del Tema, donde se busca justificar el interés del estudio del spread bancario, en particular en el caso peruano, desde diversos ángulos; segundo, Los Hechos Estilizados, donde se presenta y discute la información pertinente a los spreads, tasas de interés, y otras variables concernientes al sector financiero y a la economía peruana en general, habiendo previamente dado una somera visión del marco jurídico-institucional del sistema financiero peruano; tercero, La Explicación del Comportamiento del Spread, que es el centro del estudio, y donde se examina el comportamiento del spread bancario en el Perú, tanto en moneda nacional (soles) como en moneda extranjera (dólares), buscando modelar su comportamiento; y, cuarto y finalmente, Conclusiones: Resumen y Discusión, donde se resumen los hallazgos del proyecto, tanto en sus aspectos positivos como normativos, sin dejar de mencionar sus carencias o debilidades. Number 3029 1998-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-330&pub_file_name=pubR-330.pdf application/pdf Jorge Rojas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines how the combination of indebtedness and exogenous shocks induce volatility for the countries of Latin America. A techique for simulating the impact of shocks on the costs of external indebtedness and the response of fiscal policies in adjustment to such shocks is presented and applied to thirteen indebted Latin American countries. Number 4092 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-358&pub_file_name=pubWP-358.pdf application/pdf Kenneth Kletzer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyze the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings indicate the presence of a very similar pattern across different episodes: output recovers with virtually no recovery in either domestic or foreign credit, a phenomenon that we call a Phoenix Miracle, where output rises from its ashes, suggesting that firms go through a process of financial engineering to restore liquidity outside formal credit markets. Moreover, we show that the U. S. Great Depression could be catalogued as a Phoenix Miracle. However, in contrast to the U. S. Great Depression, EM output collapses occur in a context of accelerating price inflation and falling real wages, casting doubt on price deflation and nominal wage rigidity as key elements in explaining output collapse, and suggesting that financial factors figure prominently in these collapses. Number 4474 2006-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-570&pub_file_name=pubWP-570.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Los 33 hospitales públicos del Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires (GCBA) adquieren sus insumos en forma descentralizada. En septiembre de 1996, la Secretaría de Salud del GCBA implementó una política de monitoreo de precios de compra. En este trabajo utilizamos la base de datos generada por esta política para analizar dos cuestiones relacionadas. En primer lugar, estudiamos el efecto de la implementación de la política sobre los precios. Los resultados muestran que la política logró una reducción de precios, pero que el efecto transitorio fue mayor que el efecto permanente. En segundo lugar, analizamos el efecto de los salarios de eficiencia recibidos por los jefes de compras de cada hospital sobre los precios. Nuestra evidencia empírica no señala que mayores salarios de eficiencia induzcan menores precios de compra. También presentamos resultados de encuestas que muestran al ausentismo como la forma más grave de abuso de sus cargos por parte de médicos y enfermeros en los hospitales públicos. Number 3082 2000-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-382&pub_file_name=pubR-382.pdf application/pdf Jorge Mera Federico Weinschelbaum Ernesto Schargrodsky

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20152019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El propósito de este trabajo es diseñar un modelo macroeconómico para Costa Rica a los efectos de utilizarlo en las tareas de análisis llevadas a cabo por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID). Con este objetivo en mente, el modelo reúne las cualidades de i) consistencia, ii) valor predictivo, y iii) operatividad y versatilidad. El modelo utiliza como insumo información trimestral y anual para el período 1991-2005, y arroja predicciones anuales para el quinquenio 2006-2010. Number 2015 2008-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-161&pub_file_name=pubCSI-161_esp.pdf application/pdf Ricardo N. Bebczuk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The recent global financial crisis has put the spotlight on macro-prudential policies to protect firms and households from problems emanating from the financial sector. This paper proposes an analytical framework that combines exogenous and endogenous risks, the latter seen as stemming from frictions in financial markets. Arguing that endogenous risks may be systemic and costly, the paper employs a database of emerging market corporate bond spreads and finds evidence that endogenous risks are present and have amplified the effects of financial crises. Larger financial systems are found to exacerbate the impact of crises, and weaker financial systems are found to exacerbate particularly the impact of banking crises. The results suggest that policymakers should monitor time-varying systemic risks using both price and quantity signals and take actions in good times to mitigate potential amplifying effects at times of stress. Number 4726 2011-11 E32 E44 E58 F30 G30 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36520073 application/pdf Giovanni Majnoni Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses household data from two cities in Panama to evaluate the determinants of the tenure decision in the context of two models. The key factors explaining the decision to rent or own are those associated with the family`s lifecycle, while the choice between buying a complete house and progressive building is affected primarily by income and assets. Number 4156 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-392&pub_file_name=pubWP-392.pdf application/pdf Michael Jacobs William D. Savedoff

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo investiga la evidencia de discriminación en América Latina y muestra que hay una percepción generalizada de discriminación, especialmente en contra del pobre, el no instruído y aquellos que carecen de conecciones. Los canales a través de los cuales la discriminación ocurre se construyen en base a factores económicos. Sin embargo, mientras las encuestas de percepción son informativas, éstas son menos que ideales para ayudar a precisar el alcance y los mecanismos relacionados. Evidencia experimental reciente sugiere que hay poca cabida para prácticas discriminatorias en la región. Esta aparente contradicción en donde los individuos perciben que hay discriminación en el aire, pero pocos actúan discriminatoriamente, es consistente con una explicación acerca de estereotipos que desaparecen cuando los flujos de información funcionan bien. Number 4537 2007-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-614&pub_file_name=pubWP-614.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper, we use a panel approach to study population growth in major cities around the world. We find that major cities grow faster in relatively backward economies and in more volatile, faster-growing economies. We also find that the effects of trade policy on the growth of major cities hinge heavily on geography. While population growth in major cities located at or near ports does not change after an upsurge of trade flows, population growth in landlocked major cities tends to slow down after the same event. On the other hand, we do not find any effect of political regime on the population growth of major cities. Finally, we find some evidence that, other things being equal, larger cities tend to grow at smaller rates. Number 4197 2000-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-414&pub_file_name=pubWP-414.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses cost accounting to estimate some of the costs associated with criminal activity and violence in Uruguay. Among the costs being considered are those of security and crime prevention; justice; incarceration and rehabilitation of prisoners; stolen goods; health care and loss of life resulting from violence; and costs associated with prisoners' loss of productive time while in prison. A variety of methodologies and sources of information were utilized to calculate these cost estimates. Although a significant range of costs has been covered, the cost of crime as a whole has not been accounted for due to limited information. Consequently, cost estimates must be interpreted as a minimum benchmark. The total estimated cost for 2010 in Uruguay comes to 3. 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Number IDB-WP-408 2013-04 D60 H50 I31 K14 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id= application/pdf Diego Aboal Jorge Campanella Bibiana Lanzilotta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Argentina is a federal country and hence, although laws are national and the central bank has national jurisdiction as a regulator of the financial system, the 24 Argentine provinces have independent judicial authority. In this paper we analyze how variations in the effectiveness of the legal system across the different provinces have affected the development of credit markets. We find strong results. Provinces with poor legal enforcement have less credit available to borrowers and banks’ non-performing loans are higher. We conclude that the effectiveness of the legal system remains a highly significant variable in determining the development of the Argentine credit market and that improvements in the legal system would result in a significant increase in the availability of credit. Number 3125 2001-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-428&pub_file_name=pubR-428.pdf application/pdf Andrew Powell Marcela Cristini Ramiro Moya

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se resumen y analizan los nuevos elementos de juicio sobre la naturaleza, alcance, evolución y consecuencias de las limitaciones financieras en América Latina; esos elementos se entresacan de una serie de trabajos recientes. Los países cubiertos son Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, México y Uruguay. Todos los aportes nuevos comparten las características de basarse en datos de tipo micro. La mayoría de las fuentes de datos son los balances generales de empresas. En el caso de Argentina, también se dispone de información sobre los contratos de deuda y el historial crediticio, mientras que en el caso de Costa Rica también se recabó información personal sobre los empresarios. Algunos de los trabajos investigan los factores que determinan las decisiones de financiamiento de las empresas y las consecuencias del acceso o composición de la deuda sobre el desempeño. Otros trabajos procuran evaluar la gravedad de las limitantes del financiamiento al concentrarse en las opciones de inversión de las empresas. Todos los trabajos menos uno forman parte del proyecto Determinants and Consequences of Financial Constraints Facing Firms in Latin America and the Caribbean (Factores determinantes y consecuencias de las limitantes financieras que encaran las empresas latinoamericanas y caribeñas) realizado con fondos del BID. Sin embargo, también se trataron otros aportes recientes de tipo microeconómico. Los resultados sugieren que el acceso al crédito (y sus costos) depende no sólo de las características positivas de los balances, sino también de lo estrecho de la relación entre las empresas y los bancos, así como el historial crediticio. El acceso a préstamos de largo plazo y a préstamos denominados en divisas guarda una relación positiva con el tamaño y lo tangible de los activos empresariales y una relación negativa con las medidas del riesgo país. Además, las empresas con participación foránea parecen tener menos limitantes financieras a la hora de tomar sus decisiones de inversión. Lo mismo ocurre con las empresas vinculadas con grupos empresariales. En general, todo parece indicar que la apertura financiera tiende a relajar las limitantes financieras de las empresas que anteriormente tenían restricciones, mientras que las crisis financieras tienden a estrecharlas. Sin embargo, las compañías que tienen un mayor acceso a fuentes externas de fondos, por ejemplo, por la vía de exportaciones o de participación patrimonial, parecen experimentar menos problemas en los períodos posteriores a las crisis. Este trabajo concluye con el tratamiento de las implicaciones que tienen esos resultados para las políticas. Number 4306 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-472&pub_file_name=pubWP-472.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Fabio Schiantarelli

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There is a large literature showing that fiscal policy is either acyclical or countercyclical in industrial countries and procyclical in developing countries. Most of this literature is based on OLS regressions that focus on the correlation between a fiscal variable (usually the budget balance or expenditure growth) and either GDP growth or some measure of the output gap. This paper argues that such a methodology does not permit the identification of the effect of the business cycle on fiscal policy and hence cannot be used to estimate policy reaction functions. The paper proposes a new instrument for GDP growth and shows that, once GDP growth is properly instrumented, procyclicality tends to disappear. Number 4508 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-599&pub_file_name=pubWP-599.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza Dany Jaimovich

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan las implicaciones de un acuerdo de comercio norte-sur en el que las inversiones en el país socio sureño exhiben riesgo país. Nuestro análisis demuestra que los acuerdos de comercio norte-sur pueden servir como mecanismos de realce de la credibilidad que induzcan entradas adicionales de capital foráneo hacia los socios sureños. La presencia del riesgo soberano cambia la compensación entre la creación y la desviación de comercio, lo que mejora el potencial de los acuerdos regionales de comercio de aumentar el bienestar de sus miembros. Number 4061 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-341&pub_file_name=pubWP-341.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Mark M. Spiegel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the determinants of savings in Colombia using the framework of an intertemporal model. National saving partially responds to temporary changes in output, according to the permanent income hypothesis. Higher government expenditures (in relation to their permanent level) are associated with lower national saving, refuting the existence of Ricardian equivalence. The paper also tests other common hypotheses in regard to saving behavior. In particular, we find that changes in national savings and changes in investment are perfectly correlated, and that savings cause growth (in the Granger sense). The results also indicate that increases in urbanization and age dependency have had a significantly negative effect on private savings in Colombia. Finally, we find that much of the recent reduction in private savings can be accounted for by the increase in current government consumption, as well as by the effects of higher taxation. Number 3009 1997-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-310&pub_file_name=pubR-310.pdf application/pdf Andrés Escobar Mauricio Cardenas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42342019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se integra información tanto de Economía como de Politología para analizar las repercusiones de los desastres naturales en la región. En la primera sección se pasa revista a los efectos humanos y económicos de los desastres naturales en la región, tanto al nivel del hogar como al nivel agregado, observándose tanto la distribución geográfica del riesgo de desastre como sus implicaciones a largo plazo para el desarrollo. En la segunda sección se revisan los tipos de desastres más frecuentes en la región, así como el riesgo de desastres en el futuro y las fuentes socioeconómicas de la vulnerabilidad a los desastres producto de los patrones de desarrollo y migración. En la tercera sección se tratan las estrategias de manejo del riesgo al nivel del hogar y de la comunidad, con opciones de políticas públicas y propuestas de respuesta a emergencias, y se halla una combinación apropiada de soluciones municipales, nacionales y basadas en el mercado. Number 4234 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-434&pub_file_name=pubWP-434.pdf application/pdf Céline Charvériat

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los recientes debates de políticas sobre la reforma de los sistemas de entrega de los servicios sociales se concentra en la descentralización de servicios y la introducción de la competencia a fin de mejorar la calidad de los servicios. A pesar de la suposición corriente de que los sindicatos del sector público se oponen a esas reformas, éstos han reaccionado de diversas maneras. En este trabajo se sostiene que la estructura de la organización de los sindicatos y el entorno de competencia entre partidos y sindicatos son fundamentales para entender las preferencias de las políticas sindicales y sus decisiones estratégicas en cuanto a las reformas de los sistemas de servicios sociales. Se emplea el ejemplo de las reformas de los regímenes educativos y de atención médica realizados en México y Argentina a comienzos de los años 90 para ilustrar la influencia de esas características institucionales en las preferencias de políticas y las decisiones estratégicas de los sindicatos del sector público. Number 4045 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-332&pub_file_name=pubWP-332.pdf application/pdf Maria Victoria Murillo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper discusses program evaluation for ProJoven, the Peruvian youth labor training program. Complementing detailed fieldwork, the econometric work implements a two-stage matching procedure on propensity scores, gender and labor income. This allows identification of differentiated program impacts on males and females and attacks the problem of Ashenfelter’s Dips. The evaluation shows substantial differences in ProJoven’s impact for males and females. Eighteen months after participation in the program, employment rates forfemales improve by about 15 percent (while employment for males reduces by 11 percent), gender occupational segregation reduces by 30 percent, and females’ labor income improves by 93 percent (while males’ earnings increase by 11 percent). Nonetheless, gender equality promotion represents only 1. 5 percent of ProJoven’s budget. These results suggest that labor-training programs that promote equal gender participation have disproportionately positive effects on outcomes for women trainees in a labor market with substantial gender differences. Number 4553 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-623&pub_file_name=pubWP-623.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví Miguel Robles

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se emplea un marco de costos de transacción para vincular el proceso de diseño de políticas (PMP, por sus siglas en inglés) y las características externas de las políticas públicas en México, un país en desarrollo con ingresos medios. Se muestra cómo un PMP altamente secreto y centralizado alrededor de la Presidencia produjo políticas de corte nacionalista que fueron estables, adaptables, coordinadas y consideradas para con el sector privado radicado en las ciudades y que constituye el soporte corporativista del régimen. Sin embargo, cuando el crecimiento flaqueó a finales de los años 70, este PMP no pudo adaptarse a la inestabilidad económica, aunque mantuvo su vigor en un cuerpo político cada vez más inquieto. El documento explica cómo un gobierno unificado y el control corporativista de la economía convirtieron a un presidente constitucionalmente débil en la envidia de ejecutivos de todo el mundo, incluso a costa de no poder promulgar reformas que resultaren costosas a corto plazo para los pilares corporativistas del régimen. El artículo también explica por qué la democratización durante los años 90 está dando pie a un PMP menos centralizado y más abierto, que beneficie a un sector más amplio de la población. A medida que se materializa la separación de poderes consagrada en la Constitución de 1917, el diseño de políticas se va entretejiendo cada vez más con el status quo. Por otro lado, un gobierno dividido conserva un marco macroeconómico que se corresponde con una economía abierta (como por ejemplo, políticas fiscalmente prudentes y un tipo de cambio flotante). Por otro lado, los frenos y contrapesos están ayudando a partidos nuevos y viejos y a grupos de intereses a obstaculizar la confluencia de voluntades en cuanto al aumento de impuestos crónicamente bajos (10% del PIB) y sobre la reforma de políticas nacionalistas que restrinjan la inversión del sector privado en el sector energético controlado por el Estado. Number 3205 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-512&pub_file_name=pubR-512.pdf application/pdf Fabrice Lehoucq Gabriel Negretto Francisco Aparicio Benito Nacif Allyson Benton

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Casi diez años después de la privatización de importantes empresas paraestatales (EPE) del Perú, el balance apriorístico aún no queda claro. En este artículo se analiza el impacto de la privatización mediante un detallado análisis estadístico y econométrico de, en primer lugar, la diferencia (entre el desempeño antes y después de la privatización), y en segundo, las diferencias (el cambio en el desempeño de las empresas privatizadas respecto al cambio en el desempeño de las EPE) entre varios indicadores de rentabilidad, eficiencia de operación, empleo, solvencia y convergencia. Los resultados demostraron, en congruencia con la literatura antecedente, que las compañías privadas son más eficientes y rentables que cualquier compañía gubernamental comparable. En el caso del sector más competitivo, el sistema financiero, se descubrió con el paso del tiempo un efecto de convergencia de los bancos recién privatizados, hacia el desempeño de los bancos privados líderes existentes. A pesar de que el impacto de la privatización sobre el desempleo fue negativo en el corto plazo, pues normalmente las EPE hubieran contratado gente con base en criterios políticos en vez de en criterios técnicos, se demuestra que hubo un considerable aumento en el empleo indirecto mediante la prestación de servicios y que el empleo total, directo e indirecto, ha crecido. Number 3169 2002-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-476&pub_file_name=pubR-476.pdf application/pdf Máximo Torero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se pone a prueba si los resultados de Rodrik (1999) de que las instituciones de manejo de conflictos se relacionan con la capacidad de reaccionar a sacudidas económicas son valederos ante maneras distintas de definir la calidad de tales instituciones. Cuantificamos la calidad de las instituciones de manejo de conflictos con dos índices distintos. El primero tiene que ver con las limitantes políticas sobre la capacidad del Poder Ejecutivo de imponer su voluntad. Estas limitantes coartan la capacidad del gobierno de modificar arbitrariamente las reglas del juego, y por lo tanto pueden reducir las pugnas de la redistribución. El segundo índice mide el nivel de particularismo político. Definimos el particularismo político como la capacidad de los diseñadores de políticas de promover sus carreras mediante la atención de intereses subalternos, en vez de los de una plataforma nacional más amplia. Los índices usados en este trabajo resuelven las distorsiones de la endogeneidad y subjetividad que afectan la medida de la calidad institucional de Rodrik. Hallamos un fuerte apoyo a la idea de que elevados niveles de limitantes políticas y niveles intermedios de particularismo político guardan relación con una recuperación rápida de las sacudidas económicas. Number 4208 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-419&pub_file_name=pubWP-419.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza Alejandro Gaviria Ernesto H. Stein Jessica Seddon Wallack

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper discusses the economic performance of Latin America in the last decade, paying special attention to growth and the financial sector. In particular, it shows that external factors, such as like U. S. interest rates and the business cycle, play a key role in capital inflows, investment, and growth. As a result, economic growth in the region tends to be fragile and exhibits a high degree of co-movement, i. e. , high cross-country output correlation. This last feature exacerbates fragility, because there is little room for mutual insurance within Latin America in case a country suffers a bad shock, and finance during downturns has to come primarily from outside the region. Number 4277 2001-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-457&pub_file_name=pubWP-457.pdf application/pdf Carmen Reinhart Guillermo A. Calvo Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento ofrece una visión acerca del estado del sector turismo en México y promueve una reflexión con respecto a la forma de optimizar su contribución al desarrollo sostenible. Se destaca que el turismo puede constituir una alternativa en regiones con problemas estructurales que ven amenazados sus sectores productivos tradicionales por los efectos de la competencia exterior. México ha sabido aprovechar el gran dinamismo del turismo internacional en las últimas décadas para situarse en octavo lugar en el ranking de destinos turísticos a nivel internacional. Sin embargo, se detecta cierta desaceleración del sector, tanto en relación con la actividad económica nacional como respecto del mercado internacional. La promoción del turismo hacia el interior del país se ve obstaculizada por los problemas de seguridad ciudadana y las limitaciones en infraestructura de transporte. Con el proceso de descentralización, buena parte de las competencias en planificación y gestión del turismo recaen sobre los gobiernos subnacionales, que tienen que fortalecer su capacidad técnica y ampliar sus fuentes de financiación para poder enfrentar a sus responsabilidades. El modelo de desarrollo turístico debería caracterizarse por: 1) el aprovechamiento de atractivos culturales y naturales, y la puesta en valor de la identidad local; 2) ser de baja densidad; 3) favorecer el aprovechamiento de oportunidades de negocio y empleo por la población local, apoyar a las PyMe e impulsar su desarrollo; 4) promover la implementación de una infraestructura que beneficie por igual tanto al turismo como a la población local y a otros sectores productivos; y 5) evitar los enclaves turísticos, fomentando la integración de la actividad turística en los espacios y en las actividades productivas de los territorios rurales y en pequeños núcleos de población. Number 2008 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-117&pub_file_name=pubCSI-117_esp.pdf application/pdf Carmen Altés

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Desarrollamos un modelo en el que la elasticidad del crédito a las sacudidas exógenas depende de la regulación de los derechos de los acreedores. Mostramos que un aumento de la protección a los acreedores reduce la elasticidad de la oferta de crédito a sacudidas exógenas, y de ahí la amplitud del ciclo crediticio. Se emplea un conjunto externo de una medida de protección de derechos de los acreedores en el ánimo de La Porta y otros (1998), hallamos que una regulación más estricta de los derechos de los acreedores no sólo hace aumentar la amplitud del mercado crediticio, sino que además reduce la inestabilidad del ciclo crediticio. Number 4250 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-443&pub_file_name=pubWP-443.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este documento se analiza la evolución de la discriminación sexual en el lugar de trabajo en México entre 1994 y 2004, para analizar el papel del individuo y las características de la familia en la determinación de la discriminación por motivo de sexo y las diferencias salariales. Los resultados sugieren que eliminar completamente la segregación jerárquica puede reducir las diferencias de salario observadas entre los sexos en 5 puntos porcentuales, al mismo tiempo que la eliminación de la discriminación en el trabajo puede hacer aumentar las diferencias salariales entre los sexos en seis puntos porcentuales. Además, el papel de la discriminación laboral en las diferencias salariales ha venido aumentando en magnitud durante el período, mientras que el papel de la segregación jerárquica ha venido disminuyendo. Number 4580 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-636&pub_file_name=pubWP-636.pdf application/pdf Sebastian Calonico Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42482019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La obra publicada recientemente ha hecho hincapié en la importancia de los costos y la infraestructura de transporte para explicar el comercio internacional, el acceso a los mercados y los aumentos del ingreso per cápita. Para la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos, los costos del transporte son una barrera más grande para los mercados estadounidenses que los aranceles de importación. Investigamos los factores que determinan los costos de embarque hacia EE. UU. , con una gran base de datos de más de 300. 000 observaciones al año de embarques de productos al nivel de seis dígitos de HS desde distintos puertos de todo el mundo. Descubrimos que la distancia y la capacidad de uso de contenedores sí importan. Además, hallamos que la eficiencia de los puertos es un factor determinante de los costos navieros. Mejorar la eficiencia portuaria de 25% a 75% reduce los costos navieros en 12%. (En el caso del país promedio, puertos deficientes equivalen a estar 60% más lejos de los mercados). Puertos ineficientes también hacen aumentar los costos de manejo, que son uno de los componentes de los costos navieros. Tratamos de explicar las variaciones de eficiencia portuaria y hallamos que guardan relación con el exceso de regulación, el predominio de la delincuencia organizada y la situación general de la infraestructura del país. Por último, presentamos un número de casos individuales de éxito en América Latina que demuestran que la participación del sector privado en la gestión portuaria conduce a la eficiencia y hace bajar los costos, en los casos en que va acompañada de una reforma laboral y cuando el poder monopólico se reduce ya sea mediante la regulación o la competencia. Number 4248 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-441&pub_file_name=pubWP-441.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Natalia Perez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This case study of urban water and sanitation in Honduras focuses on the perplexing phenomenon of low level equilibrium (LLE). It first seeks to characterize LLE in terms of sector performance and to show how it is propitiated by flawed arrangements for sectoral governance, organization of service delivery and regulation. It then turns to the question of why it is so difficult to escape from LLE. To this end, it analyzes the failure of recent reform efforts, using political economy techniques. Number 3013 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-314&pub_file_name=pubR-314.pdf application/pdf Ian Walker Max Velasquez Fidel Ordoñez Florencia Rodriguez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The object of this paper is to determine the relationship between geographical variables and income per capita, income per capita growth, population density and population growth in Colombian municipalities. In order to carry out econometric estimations at the municipal level we constructed a set of geographical variables based on soil, climate and road maps. We obtained some other geographical variables from the Colombian Institute of Geography (IGAC) homogeneous zone statistics. We found that geography affects both the level of municipal income per capita and its growth, being responsible for between 36% and 47% of the variance in municipal income per capita, and between 35% and 40% of the variance in municipal income per capita growth. It was established that, among the geographic variables, distance to domestic markets and soil type exercise the greatest influence on income per capita and its growth. Furthermore, geographical variables seem to be more significant for poor municipalities than rich ones. In poor municipalities, geography is responsible for between 25% and 32% of income per capita variance, and between 24% and 27% of income per capita growth variance. In contrast, in rich municipalities, geography is less important, being responsible for between 18% and 25% of income per capita variance and between 16% and 17% of income per capita growth variance. Thus, geography affects income and income growth via the productivity of the land, the availability of natural resources (such as water and rivers), the presence of tropical diseases, and agglomeration. Although geography influences the fate of a region, that is not the end of the story. Human factors, both public policy and private intervention, also play an important role. Education, infrastructure and more efficient public institutions can boost regional economic growth, and can help poor regions to overcome the poverty trap of low income and low economic growth. Number 3107 2000-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-408&pub_file_name=pubR-408.pdf application/pdf Jairo Núñez Fabio Sánchez Torres

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents new evidence for major world regions and for the most populous countries in each region on associations between the average ages of populations and three groups of economic outcomes: (1) macroeconomic aggregates (domestic saving as a share of GDP, GDP per capita, capital per worker and tax revenue as a share of GDP); (2) governmental expenditures on education and health; and (3) social indicators (inequality, unemployment, homicide rates, and schooling progression rates). The results suggest that the variables considered follow clear age-related patterns, that the patterns differ by regions, and that the patterns differ with different policy regimes related to trade openness, domestic financial market deepening and macroeconomic volatility. The evidence is consistent with the possibility that some age structure shifts can provide favorable conditions for development. Apparently regions such as East Asia in recent decades have been able to benefit from this demographic opportunity. However, in others such as Latin America and the Caribbean--which is at the verge of experiencing the largest age structure shifts in the coming decades--creating an adequate economic environment to translate the opportunity into higher living standards for its population is a major challenge. Number 4180 1999-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-405&pub_file_name=pubWP-405.pdf application/pdf Jere R. Behrman Suzanne Duryea Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3942019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper attempts to evaluate the impact on crime of the restriction of late-night alcohol sales in Bogota and quantify the causal effect of problematic alcohol consumption on different crime categories. It is found that the restriction reduced deaths and injuries in car accidents and batteries. The results are stronger in areas where the restriction was actually binding and are highly heterogeneous depending on the number of liquor stores restricted at the block level. Finally, the paper measures the impact of the restriction on alcohol consumption (the first stage, or mechanism), and quantifies the causal pharmacological impact of alcohol consumption on crime using the restriction as an instrument for problematic alcohol consumption (the second stage). The results indicate that a one standard deviation (s. d. ) increase in problematic alcohol consumption increases deaths and injuries in car accidents by 0. 51 s. d and 0. 82 s. d. respectively, and batteries by 1. 27 s. d. Number IDB-WP-394 2013-04 C2 C54 D04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37704277 application/pdf Joao De Mello Daniel Mejia Londono Lucia Suarez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper considers valuation of amenities in urban neighborhoods and satisfaction with both those neighborhoods and life in general. First, rents are used to estimate neighborhood amenities price in San Jose, which explain 39 percent of the standardized variation of rents. Some districts rank very high in housing characteristics but poorly in neighborhood amenities, while others rank poorly in housing characteristics but high in neighborhood amenities, suggesting that indirect policy measures might reduce inequality in urban areas through improving neighborhood amenities. Second, the paper explores differences in the valuation of amenities by calculating prices in different urban areas. In more sparsely populated urban areas, distance to national parks becomes less important, but distance to primary roads becomes more important. Finally, housing and safety satisfaction represent the key components of life satisfaction. Number 3263 2008-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-563&pub_file_name=pubR-563.pdf application/pdf Roger Madrigal Juan Robalino Luis J. Hall

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the effect of employment protection regulation on gross job flows in a sample of developed and developing countries. By implementing a differences-in-differences test we lessen the potentially severe endogeneity and omitted variable problems associated with cross-country regressions. This test is based on the hypothesis that job security regulations are more binding in some sectors of economic activity than in others, depending on sector-specific characteristics such as the variance of demand or technological shocks. Unlike most of the existing literature, our analysis indicates that more stringent job security regulations slow down gross job flows, and this tendency is more pronounced in sectors that require higher labor flexibility. These effects occur within the sample of developed and developing countries and are very large in magnitude. Moreover, these effects are robust to changes in regulatory measures, measurement of sector flexibility requirements, control variables and samples. Number 4365 2004-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-508&pub_file_name=pubWP-508.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The role of regional integration agreements as a determinant of the location of FDI has become an increasingly relevant issue for emerging economies. In Latin America, the largest effects are likely to be associated with the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). In this regard, there are a number of highly relevant questions: For instance, what effect will the FTAA have on FDI from the US and Canada to Latin American countries? How will it affect FDI from the rest of the world? What are the implications for a country such as Mexico, whose preferential access to the US may be diluted? Should we expect to see winners and losers, and if so, what determines whether a particular country wins or loses? To address these questions, in this paper we look at the impact of regional integration on FDI, and attempt to derive conclusions regarding the likely impact of the FTAA on countries in Latin America. Number 4341 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-491&pub_file_name=pubWP-491.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Ernesto H. Stein Christian Daude

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Hay dos similitudes entre los programas de privatización de servicios públicos en el RU y América Latina. La privatización ha consistido principalmente en la transferencia al sector privado de compañías propiedad del Estado con posición dominante en su sector respectivo, a menudo con poderes monopólicos legales. Además, el uso extendido de una normativa basada en precios máximos en vez de la rentabilidad. Se puede sostener que una diferencia es que el RU trató de crear una política de regulación flexible estableciendo un conjunto de reguladores individuales del sector con cierta medida de independencia del gobierno con considerables poderes discrecionales. Number 4039 1996-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-329&pub_file_name=pubWP-329.pdf application/pdf Andrew Powell

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42352019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper develops and applies a new approach to the estimation of the impact of economy-wide reforms on wage differentials, using a new high-quality data set on wage differentials by schooling level for 18 Latin American countries for the period 1980-1998. The results indicate that reform overall has had a short-run disequalizing effect of expanding wage differentials, although this effect tends to fade over time. This disequalizing effect is due to the strong impact of domestic financial market reform, capital account liberalization and tax reform. On the other hand, privatization contributed to narrowing wage differentials, and trade openness had no effect on wage differentials. Technological progress, rather than trade flows, appears to be a channel through which reforms are affecting inequality. The paper also explores the effects of reforms on wage levels; tentative results suggest that reforms have had a positive effect on real average wages, but a negative effect on the wages of less-schooled workers. Keywords: reform, inequality, wages, trade, distribution Number 4235 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-435&pub_file_name=pubWP-435.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Nancy Birdsall Jere R. Behrman

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the effect of bank credit on employment formalization in Uruguay. Using a difference-in-differences methodology proposed by Cata~o, Page´s and Rosales (2011), the paper finds that financial deepening decreases informality, especially in more financially dependent sectors. The effect is additionally found to be greater for women and younger workers. Despite the severe economic crisis and a sharp contraction of bank credit experienced by the economy in the period of analysis, no evidence is found that the effect of bank credit on employment formality has changed over time. Number 4778 2012-04 E26 G21 O16 O4 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36854994 application/pdf Nestor Gandelman Alejandro Rasteletti

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se estudia la presencia o falta de discriminación sexual. El estudio consistió en enviar currículos vitae ficticios en respuesta a solicitudes reales de personal publicadas semanalmente en el periódico El Mercurio, de Santiago. Se envió una gama de currículos estrictamente equivalentes en términos de formación profesional y experiencia laboral de los solicitantes, los cuales se diferenciaron únicamente en sexo, nombre y apellido, y lugar de domicilio. Los resultados no mostraron ninguna diferencia significativa en cuanto a los niveles de respuesta entre los diversos grupos, por contraste con lo que se descubrió en otros estudios internacionales. Number 3243 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-541&pub_file_name=pubR-541.pdf application/pdf David Bravo Claudia Sanhueza Sergio Urzua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the short and long-run average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. The counterfactual of the cases studied is assessed by constructing synthetic control groups, taking advantage of the fact that the timing of large sudden natural disasters is an exogenous event. It is found that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output, both in the short and long run. However, this result appears in two events where radical political revolutions followed the natural disasters. Once these political changes are controlled for, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth. It is also found that smaller, but still very large natural disasters, have no discernible effect on output. Natural Disasters, Political Change, Economic Growth and Causal Effects Number 4671 2010-06 O40 O47 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-183&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-183.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Sebastian Galiani Ilan Noy Juan Pantano

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) This study analyses health legislation in Latin America and the Caribbean in an effort to determine to what extent it contributes, or otherwise, to the elimination of health risks. The countries included are: Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela. The research focuses on the areas of medicine, private health insurance, certification of professionals and hospitals, environmental pollution, food protection, occupational health and safety, and blood banks and transfusion services. The study investigated current legislation to April 1, 2001 contained in the LEYES database, various legislative databases, specialized national and regional and databases produced by the Pan American Institute for Food Protection and Zoonoses (INPPAZ), and the Pan American Center for Sanitary Engineering and Environmental Sciences (CEPIS). Each chapter presents a table that identifies the subjects covered and the gaps in legislation based on the information analyzed. Number 4285 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-461&pub_file_name=pubWP-461.pdf application/pdf Mónica Bolis

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La reforma aplicada en Colombia en el sector salud durante la década de los noventa logró un importante avance en cobertura de la población mediante un nuevo esquema público-privado en la provisión de este servicio. Este trabajo estudia el efecto de las innovaciones institucionales sobre las conductas irregulares en los hospitales públicos de Bogotá. El estudio muestra en primer lugar que hay evidencia de conductas irregulares en los hospitales públicos. Los resultados muestran que en 1998 se perdieron alrededor de un 5% de las horas médicas contratadas como consecuencia del ausentismo injustificado y también que el 60% de las adquisiciones de insumos médicos de una muestra fueron pagadas a precios superiores a los que era posible obtener a través de una organización que ofrece precios negociados con las autoridades del Distrito. Así mismo encuentra que la reforma no logró en todos los casos realizar un verdadero cambio de reglas del juego en el sector. Aquellos hospitales más exitosos en asimilar la reforma muestran menores niveles de conductas irregulares en el indicador construido en este trabajo. Number 3123 2001-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-426&pub_file_name=pubR-426.pdf application/pdf Luis Gonzalez Morales Ursula Giedion Olga Lucía Acosta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo estudia los efectos de la privatización del sector de agua en el bienestar de los consumidores en 46 municipalidades de Colombia. En primer lugar se describe el proceso de privatización. En segundo lugar, el estudio evalúa el impacto de la privatización en el acceso, precio y calidad del agua al igual que los resultados de salud usando metodología de diferencia en diferencias con variación de tiempo (antes y después de la privatización) entre tratamientos y grupos de control (municipalidades privatizadas y no privatizadas)y el control de las características de la familia y de la municipalidad. Los resultados muestran efectos positivos de la privatización, en particular en las áreas urbanas. Hay cuatro resultados importantes: (i) La privatización en las áreas urbanas aumenta el acceso, tiene efectos positivos en la medición de calidad como en la necesidad de tratamiento y el aspecto del agua (i. e. presencia de partículas), y mejora los resultados de salud, como también mejorar la frecuencia del servicio para los bajos quintiles. (ii) La privatización aumenta el precio del agua en los bajos quintiles, aunque estos efectos pueden ser el resultado de la implementación conjunta de privatización y eliminación de subsidios cruzados (iii) En las municipalidades privatizadas con mejores capacidades técnicas gubernamentales hay efectos positivos en el acceso, precios y calidad. (iv) los efectos positivos de la privatización en áreas rurales en la frecuencia del servicio y en los resultados de salud están dominados por el impacto negativo en el acceso y precios. Estos resultados sugieren que los beneficios que se encuentran en las áreas urbanas deben expandirse a las áreas rurales, y que el servicio se debe enfocar más hacia los más pobres. Number 3231 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-525&pub_file_name=pubR-525.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Olivera Felipe Barrera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the process by which firms in a cluster start to export based on systemic interactions and the process of diffusion of exporting as a business strategy within the cluster. Two Brazilian manufacturing industries are studied, and within each one a geographic cluster was identified as the origin of dynamic export growth. Players in each industrial cluster, as well as other significant players, were interviewed or identified using secondary sources, and extensive secondary data research was undertaken to study clusters’ historical development. Detailed analysis and a comparison of the two experiences made it possible to draw some general conclusions concerning the similarities and differences between the two clusters in terms of the adoption and diffusion of exporting. Cluster, Exports, Innovation, Brazil Number 3270 2009-09 L11 L67 L68 O33 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-557&pub_file_name=pubR-557.pdf application/pdf Angela da Rocha Beatriz Kury Joana Monteiro

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Commonly used datasets on the level of public debt provide incomplete country and period coverage. This paper presents a new dataset that includes complete series of central government debt for 89 countries over the 1991-2005 period and for seven other countries for the 1993-2005 period. The data set can be found at: http://www. iadb. org/res/pub_desc. cfm?pub_id=DBA-005 Number 4461 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-561&pub_file_name=pubWP-561.pdf application/pdf Dany Jaimovich Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study seeks to identify, measure and analyze possible discriminatory behaviors in southern Ecuador. There are three main findings. First, emigration is perceived as a social problem. Second, emigrant families are seen as economically “irrational” because they are not perceived to be investing remittances in productive and sustainable activities; emigrants are additionally portrayed as “irresponsible” because they leave their families in search of better living conditions. Third, emigrants’ children are perceived as doing worse in school than their peers and as living outside the society at large. Observed discrimination follows a cultural pattern: persons closer to the dominant culture are proportionately more to discriminate against emigrants and their families, and women show more discriminatory attitudes than men. Number 3244 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-542&pub_file_name=pubR-542.pdf application/pdf Ximena Soruco Giorgina Piani Máximo Rossi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40372019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan los factores determinantes de la inmigración ilegal hacia EE. UU. desde México desde 1976 hasta 1995. El principal problema de este trabajo empírico es que las observaciones no son de la cantidad de personas que tratan de entrar ilegalmente a EE. UU. , sino del número de las detenidas en el intento de cruzar ilícitamente la frontera entre EE. UU. y México. Basándonos en un modelo simple de la decisión individual de emigrar, sugerimos la existencia de una función de detenciones, que expresa el número de detenciones realizadas en la frontera entre México y EE. UU. como función del número de intentos ilícitos de cruzar la frontera y el grado en que el gobierno estadounidense aplica la ley en la frontera. Number 4037 1996-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-328&pub_file_name=pubWP-328.pdf application/pdf Gordon H. Hanson Antonio Spilimbergo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses the Mexican Social Mobility Survey 2006 to analyze intergenerational social mobility as it relates to entrepreneurial activity. First, the paper analyzes whether entrepreneurs experience greater upward social mobility than self-employed workers or employees. Second, probit models are estimated to identify whether predetermined characteristics are the main determinants of the decision to become an entrepreneur. Third, using the propensity score matching method (PSM), the paper estimates the effect of entrepreneurial activity on income. Results show that entrepreneurs have more options for upward social mobility. For entrepreneurs with low-income parents, it is more difficult to reach the top of the socioeconomic distribution compared to those with middle- or upper-class parents. Second, the probability of becoming an entrepreneur increases when the respondent’s father was an entrepreneur. Finally, the mean effect of entrepreneurial activity on income is positive, and is greater for those whose parents belonged to the extreme ends of the socioeconomic distribution. Number 4796 2012-07 C21 J62 L26 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36980115 application/pdf Viviana Velez-Grajales Roberto Velez-Grajales

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presenta un marco conceptual para explicar el incumplimiento de los préstamos de las asociaciones de crédito (CU, por sus siglas en inglés) y la rentabilidad en los países en desarrollo. También se ofrece un cálculo empírico de una muestra única de asociaciones de crédito latinoamericanas. Number 4087 1997-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-355&pub_file_name=pubWP-355.pdf application/pdf Glenn Westley Sherrill Shaffer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Theoretical literatures on procedural utility and the psychological benefits of political participation suggest that people who participate in political activities will be more satisfied with their lives because of the resulting feelings of autonomy, competence and relatedness. Individual-level data from Latin America show—in one dataset under study but not in another—a positive and statistically significant relationship between voting and life satisfaction. Variation in desire to vote as measured in Costa Rica, however, suggests that the causal arrow may run from happiness to voting. The use of multilevel models further reveals a consistent—but untheorized—cross-country negative relationship between enforced compulsory voting and happiness. Only preliminary results are found regarding the relationship between some other forms of political participation and life satisfaction. Number 4583 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-638&pub_file_name=pubWP-638.pdf application/pdf Rebecca Weitz-Shapiro Matthew S. Winters

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the evolution and current profile of teacher unionization and estimate the impact of unionization on the quality of public education in Peru. The research uses data from a 1999 household survey (ENAHO) and from a recent evaluation of a public program oriented to improve the quality of Peruvian public education. Regarding the evolution of unionization, there is evidence compatible with the hypothesis that the rate of teacher unionization has dropped during the last three decades, but especially during the 1990s, due basically to the hiring of temporary teachers. With respect to the profile of unionization, it is found that unionized teachers are older and more experienced, and that males are more common in the union membership. There is no empirical evidence that unionized teachers enjoy better access to educational infrastructure at the polidocente (larger) schools, but they do have better access at the multigrado (intermediate) schools. For the impact of unionization on quality, Hoxby’s production function model was adapted to the Peruvian case, in which public education is centralized and in which teachers do not have major influence on the education budget at the school or district levels. The model is estimated to test whether unionization has an impact on teachers’ effort and student achievement, but there is no empirical support for these hypotheses. The data indicate that unionization does not currently seem to be a major factor affecting the quality of educational services in the Peruvian public education system. Number 3167 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-474&pub_file_name=pubR-474.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Zegarra Renato Ravina

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presentan técnicas de simulación microeconómica para analizar qué es lo que hay detrás de las diferencias en la desigualdad de un país a otro. La simulación descompone las diferencias de desigualdad de un país a otro en la importancia de las decisiones individuales, tales como la fertilidad, la elección de pareja, la participación en la fuerza laboral y la estructura del hogar, mientras que al mismo tiempo se incluye información sobre la importancia de diferentes fuentes de ingresos. La descomposición se aplica a datos de encuestas de hogares de 35 países de seis regiones del mundo. Los resultados empíricos brindan nuevas percepciones sobre los mecanismos de transmisión a través de los cuales se genera la desigualdad. Number 4244 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-439&pub_file_name=pubWP-439.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Marianne Hilgert

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Uruguay genera una variedad de resultados políticos. Primero, hay políticas relativamente estables que permiten la apertura comercial y financiera del país. También, hay políticas de baja calidad e inflexibles relacionadas con políticas sociales, algunas áreas de reforma estatal (los salarios de los funcionarios del estado y mecanismos de contratación), el régimen de bancarrota, etc. Finalmente, estan los resultados volátiles que son generalmente los efectos de choques económicos, algunas veces relacionados con los gastos públicos. En los casos en que hay un precedente histórico o que la disponibilidad de mecanismos externos de cumplimento no conducen a políticas relativamente estables, la principal característica saliente de las políticas Uruguayas es la rigidez. La fuente de rigidez de las políticas Uruguayas parece ser una mezcla de factores institucionales (múltiples vetos, partidos fraccionados, y mecanismos de democracia directa) y conflictos políticos (preferencias de políticas divergentes), en los cuales es muy costoso moverse del status-quo debido a la gran amenaza de un reverso de las políticas. Las instituciones políticas en el Uruguay son propicias a alcanzar un acuerdo político a corto plazo, pero no pueden cooperar efectivamente y establecer políticas estables y flexibles al largo plazo. La dificultad está en conseguir intercambios políticos ínter temporales que son consistentes con las principales características del ambiente político: una cifra alta de principales actores políticos y vetos, una cifra considerable de maniobras políticas inobservables, una pobre aplicación de tecnología en el área económica, una burocracia políticamente influenciada, intercambios políticos que ocurren fuera del ruedo legislativo, y una particular constelación de partidos y preferencias además de un diseño costoso de políticas y cambios institucionales. (Disponible en Inglés) Number 3201 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-510&pub_file_name=pubR-510.pdf application/pdf Mario Bergara Andrés Pereyra Juan Andrés Moraes Daniel Chasquetti Daniel Buquet Adolfo Garcé Rubén Tansini

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Los impuestos a la nómina junto con los salarios mínimos han producido un notable encarecimiento de los costos laborales en América Latina desde los noventa. Puesto que, simultáneamente, las tasas de tributación de las empresas se han reducido, esta nota analiza si, como resultado, hay un sesgo anti-laboral de los impuestos en los países latinoamericanos. Se utiliza una metodología contable que permite calcular las tasas efectivas de tributación del trabajo y del capital y comparar ambas entre sí. Como en los países desarrollados, en América Latina las cargas tributarias están sesgadas en contra de los ingresos laborales, en el sentido de que las tasas efectivas de los impuestos al trabajo (directos y a la nómina) son mayores que las tasas efectivas de los impuestos al capital. Entre los países analizados, Venezuela, Guatemala, Colombia y Brasil tienen los mayores sesgos anti-laborales. Number 4805 2012-10 E61 F33 F34 F36 F53 G01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37192964 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org Deisy Fajardo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores whether the level of financial integration of banks in a country increases the incidence of systemic banking crises. The paper uses a de facto proxy for financial integration based on network statistics of banks participating in the global market of interbank syndicated loans. Specifically, the network statistics degree and betweenness are used to proxy for the de facto integration of the average bank in a country. The paper fits a count data model in the cross-section for the period 1980- 2007 and finds that the level of integration of the average bank is a robust determinant of the incidence of banking crises. An increased level of de facto integration as mea- sured by borrowing by banks is positively associated with the incidence of crises. A higher level of de jure integration (capital account openness) is also associated with a higher incidence of crises. However, the results also indicate that prudential banking regulation (supervision) plays a crucial and much larger role in reducing the incidence of crises. Interestingly, the results also show that the level of integration as measured by betweenness of the average bank has a negative effect on the incidence of crises. That is, the more important the average bank of a country is to the global bank network, the fewer the number of crises the country endures. Number 4816 2012-12 E44 E51 F21 F32 F34 G01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37335798 application/pdf Julian Caballero julianc@iadb.org

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preprint Does entrepreneurship contribute to improving social mobility in Ecuador? This paper constructs a pseudo-panel to analyze the dynamic effect of entrepreneurship on Ecuadorian household incomes during the period 2002-2010. Using three estimation scenarios, the paper finds a significant level of unconditional mobility and an important effect of entrepreneurship (conditional mobility). Number 4783 2012-07 J16 L26 M13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36966911 application/pdf Xavier Ordeñana Ramon Villa

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper complements the findings of Atal, Ñopo and Winder (2009) on gender and ethnic wage gaps for 18 Latin American countries circa 2005 by analyzing gender wage gaps for the same countries between circa 1992 and circa 2007. During this span the overall gender earnings gaps dropped about 7 percentage points, while the unexplained component dropped between 3 and 4 percentage points, depending on the control variables used. The gap declined most notably among workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution, with children at home, the self-employed, part-time workers and those in rural areas—the segments of the labor market that were previously reported as having the highest unexplained gender disparities. Most of the reduction in unexplained gaps occurred within segments rather than due to the composition of labor markets. The paper additionally finds a limited role for job tenure in explaining gender wage gaps. Gender, Wage gaps, Latin America, Matching Number 4665 2010-05 C14 D31 J16 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-176&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-176.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Hoyos Hugo Nopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study assesses macroeconomic volatility in Costa Rica, based largely on politically weak governments` inability or unwillingness to effect key reforms. Notable problems include volatility-prone fiscal and monetary policy, structurally weak public finances due to large domestic debts and politically motivated expenditure cycles, underdeveloped financial markets, weak financial links abroad, and risky corporate financing. The paper recommends greater fiscal discipline, financial and policy independence for the Central Bank, improvements in financial system operations, and improving financial links abroad, further discussing the interdependence among these proposals. Number 4196 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-413&pub_file_name=pubWP-413.pdf application/pdf Rodrigo Bolaños Zamora

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este artículo ofrece evidencia empírica de la importancia que tienen las instituciones en determinar el resultado de las crisis sobre el crecimiento a largo plazo. Una vez que se explican los efectos no observados específicos del país y otras fuentes de endogeneidad, las instituciones políticas afectan el crecimiento mediante su interacción con las crisis. Los resultados sugieren que sólo los países con una democracia sólida, altos niveles de competencia política yrestricciones externassobre elgobierno pueden potencialmente beneficiarse con las crisis y utilizarlas como una oportunidad para mejorarsu producción per capita a largo plazo y el crecimiento productivo. Number 4590 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-643&pub_file_name=pubWP-643.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Alberto Cavallo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Although much progress has been made in understanding the importance of institutional failure in explaining creditors` unwillingness to finance firms and individuals, the pertinent empirical literature still has an important shortcoming: it does not separate out the effects of legal protection, accounting standards and judicial enforcement. This paper tries to overcome this gap by analyzing the discrete effect of the quality of judicial enforcement on the performance of credit markets. Number 3066 1999-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-368&pub_file_name=pubR-368.pdf application/pdf Armando Castelar Pinneiro Célia Cabral

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se hace un perfil de las víctimas del hampa en América Latina. Se demuestra que al menos en el caso de los delitos contra la propiedad, las víctimas típicas del hampa en América Latina provienen de hogares adinerados y de clase media y que tienden a ser habitantes de las ciudades más grandes. También se demuestra que las familias que viven en ciudades que experimentan un crecimiento demográfico rápido tienen una mayor probabilidad de ser víctimas del hampa que las que viven en ciudades con una población estable. Se postulan varias explicaciones de estos hechos y aunque es prematuro presentar respuestas claras a algunas de las preguntas que se suscitan en este trabajo, al menos es posible rechazar algunas hipótesis plausibles. En general, los resultados indican que el hampa en las ciudades latinoamericanas es, en gran medida, producto de la incapacidad de muchas ciudades de la región de atender la creciente demanda de seguridad pública que generan los procesos apresurados y desorganizados de urbanización. Number 4187 1999-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-408&pub_file_name=pubWP-408.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper introduces preliminary evidence from a cross-country database of policy characteristics and potential uses of that database. While most databases have emphasized either the content of policies (e.g., size of government deficits) or countries’ formal institutions (e.g., political regime, electoral system), the variables in this database reflect the policymaking capabilities of different polities. The paper attempts to explain these policy characteristics as depending on the workings of political institutions, using a logic emphasizing intertemporal political compromise. The paper also contrasts this logic with alternatives such as the veto players approach. The paper concludes by suggesting the use of these policy characteristics or state capabilities as explanatory variables for the effectiveness of public spending in various social areas. Political institutions, Public policies, Government capabilities, Veto players, Intertemporal cooperation, Development, Human Development Index, Public expenditures, Policy index, Adaptability, Stability, Judicial independence, Party institutionalization, Congress capabilities, Cabinet stability Number 4608 2008-12 D72 D78 H10 H50 O10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-661&pub_file_name=pubWP-661.pdf application/pdf Carlos Scartascini Ernesto Stein Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés) Los primeros cinco años del régimen de tipo de cambio flexible y la fijación de metas inflacionarias en Chile han arrojado resultados positivos. La inflación está controlada, el tipo de cambio ha evolucionado a la par de las condiciones externas, la política monetaria ha sido de tipo anticíclico y todo indica que el ciclo se ha suavizado. Aunque ha aumentado la inestabilidad del tipo de cambio, tal como cabría anticipar con un sistema flexible, lo mismo ha ocurrido en otros países de características similares. Este aumento de la inestabilidad muestra valoraciones extremas del tipo de cambio real más bajas que en el pasado y también se aprecia en otros países con sistemas cambiarios distintos. Avances importantes en la profundización del mercado de derivados, así como una menor transmisión del tipo de cambio a la inflación, han contribuido a mejorar la credibilidad y la viabilidad del actual marco de políticas, al tiempo que se minimizan los costos potenciales derivados de ese marco. Number 4428 2005-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-540&pub_file_name=pubWP-540.pdf application/pdf José De Gregorio Andrea Tokman Rodrigo Valdés

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The future of structural reforms in Latin America is under discussion. The purpose of this document is to synthesize the facts and opinions that underlie this debate. The first section shows that although the reform process has not ground to a halt, it has been incomplete and uneven, both across countries and different areas of reform. The greatest progress has been made in reforming the trade and financial sectors. In terms of tax reform and privatization, the record has been mixed across countries. The most modest progress has been made in the area of labor code reform. The second section analyzes the status of public opinion of the reform process. Disillusionment with the reforms has been growing, particularly among the middle class. This disapproval, rather than reflecting concerns about the state of the economy or the degree of progress of the reforms, stems from the corruption that has tainted the privatization process in some countries. The third section reviews the effects of the reforms. Their impact on growth seems to have been positive, albeit temporary, but the effects on employment and income distribution have varied in different areas of reform and according to the particular context in each country. Specifically, the effectiveness of reforms has depended heavily on the quality of public institutions. The fourth section summarizes the main proposals to expand or reorient the reform agenda in the region. One set of proposals suggests broadening the Washington Consensus with more active policies aimed at addressing the need for greater economic stability, social integration and equitable income distribution. Another set of proposals, guided by a more encompassing view of the goals of development, emphasizes the interaction among civil society, the private sector, and the government. Finally, a more radical vision proposes a new national and international institutional architecture that would limit the role of markets and mitigate the effects of globalization. Number 4301 2002-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-470&pub_file_name=pubWP-470.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper identifies three periods in Argentine exchange rate policy, corresponding with different development strategies and political coalitions. The first, periodic adjustments to a pegged rate until the mid-1970s, accompanied an Import Substitution Industrialization approach and a redistribution of income from agrarian to industrial production during an era of strong labor union influence. A second period, from the mid-1970s, marked by accelerated devaluations, represented efforts by both military and civilian governments to meet the demands of their respective constituencies while maintaining capital flows from abroad; these efforts culminated in hyperinflation. A third period, beginning in the early 1990s, was notable for exchange rate stability, based on the Convertibility Plan, as a broad consensus emerged that the exchange rate should be used for containing inflation rather than engaging in redistribution among domestic interest groups. The authors conclude that additional innovations in Argentina`s monetary and exchange rate policies may eventually be necessary. Number 3078 1999-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-379&pub_file_name=pubR-379.pdf application/pdf Eugenio Diaz Bonilla Hector E. Schamis

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper, we examine how the business and interest rate cycles in developed countries affect FDI to developing countries. After aggregating flows into three big source areas (the U. S. , Europe and Japan), we find FDI flows to be countercyclical with respect to both output and interest rate cycles in the first two, whereas in Japan they display either no cyclical behavior or mild procyclical behavior. This finding is consistent with the fact that FDI outflows and local investment tend to move in opposite directions during the cycles in the U. S. and Europe, reflecting investors` arbitrage among different investment opportunities. In sum, and contrary to what is usually claimed, we conclude that recessions in industrial countries are likely to increase FDI flows, particularly to those countries with close ties with the U. S. and Europe. Number 4317 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-479&pub_file_name=pubWP-479.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Ugo Panizza Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-tn-5762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Instruction Manual for Version 2. 0 of the IDB Debt Sustainability Template. The updated Template includes a new interface, more analytical functions, and greater flexibility for the researcher. Number IDB-TN-576 2013-09 H63 H68 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38054927 application/pdf Eduardo Borensztein Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Paula Cifuentes Oscar Valencia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Although the Brazilian privatization program has been a sweeping endeavor involving more than 100 firms and billions of dollars, most of the studies have been published only in Brazil, and in Portuguese. This paper is the most comprehensive study to date in terms of the companies covered, and includes the most recent data. It looks at the results of privatization in Brazil for a broad range of economic variables to answer the question: Has the widespread popular discontent with the program been justified? The paper also examines the effects of privatization on aspects that affect the development of financial markets, including minority shareholder rights. It concludes with recommendations for democratizing capital ownership through public offers in which workers would be entitled to participate using public sector liabilities such as FGTS deposits. Number 3149 2003-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-455&pub_file_name=pubR-455.pdf application/pdf A. Gledson de Carvalho Francisco Anuatti-Neto Milton Barossi-Filho Roberto Macedo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza de qué manera la combinación de endeudamiento y sacudidas exógenas inducen la inestabilidad de los países latinoamericanos. Se presenta una técnica para simular los efectos de las sacudidas en los costos del endeudamiento externo y la respuesta de las políticas fiscales en el ajuste a dichas sacudidas, y la misma se aplica a 13 países latinoamericanos endeudados. Number 4093 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-358&pub_file_name=pubWP-358.pdf application/pdf Kenneth Kletzer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study explores and analyzes the labor market experience of young adults in 18 Latin American countries. For men, the period of young adulthood (18-25 years of age) was found to be one of smooth convergence towards patterns associated with full adulthood. Females show more complex and less clear-cut trajectories, which seem to be affected by entrance into motherhood. Educational attainment shapes the labor market experience of young adults, regardless of gender: the more educated postpone entry into the market, and more educated women display higher participation rates as they reach late young adulthood. Also, during young adulthood, the more educated display higher unemployment rates, possibly because they are newer in the market, but their rate of participation in the informal sector of the economy is lower. Female labor market experience was found to be affected by motherhood. In many countries women with lower levels of education leave the labor market during young adulthood, while women with higher levels of education postpone such exits and are also less likely to leave. Finally, young Latin American adults with college education were found to experience rapid labor market absorption, featuring swift entry into the formal sector, high participation rates and low and rapidly decreasing unemployment rates. Earnings equations show that education, experience and gender have significant and positive effects on the earnings of young adults. In general, returns from education increase with age and educational level, with the sharpest marginal change occurring in early young adulthood. Return for education and experience of young adults tend to be close to those obtained by prime age adults, although in the case of experience the returns obtained by young adults tend to be larger. In general, formal education has a consistently larger effect than experience. Although the previous findings hold for young adults in almost all countries included in the study, it is important to note that the individual countries results show large variation in the levels of all coefficients (education, experience and gender) and among age groups. Number 3161 2002-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-468&pub_file_name=pubR-468.pdf application/pdf Josefina Bruni Celli Richard Obuchi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Since efforts by industrial countries to increase the amount of foreign aid they provide have been on the rise recently, it is important to understand the determinants involved. This paper examines the factors affecting support for foreign aid among voters in donor countries. The theoretical model, which considers an endogenous determination of official and private aid flows, suggests that government efficiency is an important factor in this regard, and also ties individual income to aid support through the elasticity of substitution. An empirical analysis of individual attitudes, based on the World Values Surveys, reveals that two factors are positively related to an individual`s willingness to support foreign aid: satisfaction with own government performance and individual relative income. Furthermore, when using donor country data, we find that aid is negatively tied to inequality, corruption and taxes. These results are quite consistent with the analytical framework. Number 4452 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-556&pub_file_name=pubWP-556.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32652019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys overall export growth in Chile and focuses on three case studies of the emergence of successful export activities in Chile: wine, pork and blueberries. Each case study discusses how companies, associations, and governments at various levels have addressed market failures and facilitated the provision of public goods necessary for each activity. The case studies additionally profile first movers in each activity and describe the positive externalities they provide to imitators, particularly diffusion of export knowledge. Also included are counterfactual cases of a less successful firm or activity (an unsuccessful wine exporter, other types of berries, and commodity pork production rather than custom cuts, respectively) and a discussion of policy implications. Exports, Agriculture, Chile Number 3265 2009-02 H41 L26 L65 L84 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-552&pub_file_name=pubR-552.pdf application/pdf Manuel Agosin Claudio Bravo-Ortega

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Se ha señalado en numerosos debates recientes que el proceso de crecimiento y estabilización macroeconómica iniciado en Argentina a comienzos de los años noventa, vino acompañado por una insuficiencia del ahorro doméstico para financiar el fuerte crecimiento de las inversiones. La contrapartida fue un importante déficit en cuenta corriente y un incremento en el ingreso de capitales hasta 1994. Desde entonces la economía argentina debió ajustarse a las condiciones originadas luego de la devaluación mexicana que durante 1995 se tradujeron, primero, en una fuerte contracción de depósitos y préstamos y, luego, en una caída importante del nivel de actividad económica. La preocupación sobre el problema del ahorro interno suficiente para sostener el sendero de crecimiento iniciado a comienzos de la década ha estado permanentemente en el análisis del desempeño macroeconómico, asi como en el debate sobre las políticas publicas. Number 3023 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-324&pub_file_name=pubR-324.pdf application/pdf Ricardo López-Murphy Fernando Navajas Santiago Urbiztondo Cynthia Moskovitz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las diferencias institucionales y jurídicas entre los países hacen aumentar los costos de entrada y reducen la capacidad de los bancos de expandirse en el exterior. Empleamos datos de la banca extranjera bilateral de 176 países para calcular un modelo de gravedad que explique la actividad bancaria bilateral, además de variables estándar, mediante diferencias jurídicas e institucionales. Hallamos que la banca foránea se ve afectada negativamente por diferencias absolutas del marco legal y de las instituciones básicas entre los países de origen y receptores. Por ejemplo, las diferencias en el origen legal reducen la participación bilateral en el sistema bancario en casi 11%. Además, no hallamos elementos de juicio sólidos que sugieran una asimetría en la adaptación a entornos institucionales o jurídicos mejores o peores. Number 4314 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-477&pub_file_name=pubWP-477.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco César Manuel Serra

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presenta una prueba para distinguir entre los comportamientos de los productores de recursos agotables. El comportamiento de un productor competitivo de un recurso agotable debería cumplir con la ecuación de Euler. La existencia de mercados de futuros nos permite dejar de lado los aspectos difíciles que tienen que ver con el cálculo de los precios y la demanda futuros. Este marco teórico se emplea para poner a prueba la hipótesis de comportamiento colusivo entre miembros de la OPEP entre 1983 y 1991. Number 4017 1995-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-312&pub_file_name=pubWP-312.pdf application/pdf Antonio Spilimbergo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint We suggest that foreign banks may represent a trade-off for their developing country hosts. A portfolio model is developed to show that a more diversified international bank may be one of lower, overall risk and less susceptible to funding shocks but may react more to shocks that affect expected returns in a particular host country. Foreign banks have become particularly important in Latin America where we find strong support for these theoretical predictions using a dataset of individual Latin American banks in 11 countries. Moreover, we find no significant difference between the size of the response of foreign banks to a negative liquidity shock and a positive opportunity shock: in both cases the market share of foreign banks in credit increases. Number 4403 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-529&pub_file_name=pubWP-529.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco Andrew Powell

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses 113 household surveys from 18 Latin American countries to document patterns in secondary school graduation rates over the period 1990– 2010. It is found that enrollment and graduation rates increased dramatically during that period, while dropout rates decreased. Two explanations for these patterns are provided. First, countries implemented changes on the supply side to increase access, by increasing the resources allocated to education and designing policies to help students staying in school. At the same time, economic incentives to stay in school changed, since returns to secondary education increased over the 1990s. Despite this progress, graduation rates are low, and there persist remarkable gaps in educational outcomes in terms of gender, income quintiles, and regions within countries. In addition, wage returns have recently stagnated, and the quality of education in the region is low, casting doubts on whether the positive trend is sustainable in the medium term. Number IDB-WP-462 2013-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38204878 application/pdf Marina Bassi Matias Busso mbusso@iadb.org Juan Sebastian Munoz

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Based on research in linguistics and psychology I use language speech as a reflection of acculturation. I use individual and city-level data from the Lake Ontario area in Canada and study the determinants of cultural assimilation. I focus on education, age, income, and in particular, on some variables typically discussed when globalization issues come up, such as immigration, television viewing, borders, and residence history of the individuals. I find that actual contact does matter as a determinant of cultural homogenization. Virtual contact appears to be irrelevant. This finding is robust to changes in specification and to different empirical methods. Number 4454 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-557&pub_file_name=pubWP-557.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los elementos de juicio demuestran que el gasto oficial en atención médica en muchos países en desarrollo beneficia más a los ricos que a los pobres. Sin embargo, una combinación de fuerzas políticas favorables y políticas públicas sólidas puede ir desplazando el destino del gasto oficial hacia los pobres. Ello es una parte esencial de cualquier programa eficaz de reducción de la pobreza en los países en desarrollo. Number 4007 1995-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-305&pub_file_name=pubWP-305.pdf application/pdf Nancy Birdsall Robert Hecht

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47712019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This edition of IDEA focuses on secondary education in Latin America and examines the serious mismatch between what employers are seeking in terms of knowledge and skills, and what young people are actually learning in the region`s schools. It draws on the findings of a new IDB book, Disconnected: Skills, Education and Employment in Latin America, and what they imply for public policy in education throughout the region. Number 4771 2012-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36820616 application/pdf Rita Funaro

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41172019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este trabajo fue preparado para la IIC Asamblea anual del BID en 1998, titulada: El empleo en América Latina: ¿cuál es el problema y hay que resolverlo o no?, que tuvo lugar en la ciudad colombiana de Cartagena en marzo de 1998. Los problemas del empleo han persistido en América Latina a despecho de la estabilización macroeconómica y las reformas estructurales. En los años 90 se produjo una disminución del ritmo de creación de empleos y los niveles de desempleo se estancaron alrededor del 10%. El empleo en el sector informal creció y los trabajadores calificados han gozado de un aumento del salario real especialmente favorable. Los ciclos económicos son la razón de las fluctuaciones en los niveles de empleo y desempleo, mientras que la estabilización de precios y las reformas estructurales han incidido en la composición de la demanda laboral y los salarios relativos. Number 4117 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-372&pub_file_name=pubWP-372.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org Mauricio Olivera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using borrower-level data from FINCA, one of Peru's leading microfinance institutions (MFIs), this paper evaluates the effect on borrowers' access to credit of FINCA' decision to share information on individual outstanding debt records (positive information) as well as group default records (negative information). Since all borrowers were simultaneously exposed to the same policy, the paper develops a creative identification strategy that relies on the exogenous variation of the opening and closing dates of loan cycles across lending groups. A credit expansion effect is identified for some borrowers in FINCA who looked more creditworthy after their positive records were exposed, suggesting that other lenders targeted FINCA clients with good credit records. This credit expansion effect seems to have hurt FINCA through higher default rates as its better clients were skimmed off. Number 4808 2012-10 C33 O12 O16 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37193622 application/pdf Veronica Frisancho vfrisancho@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in Buenos Aires to estimate the short-run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization. The schedule induces a non-linear and nonmonotonic relationship between households’ accumulated consumption and unit prices, thus generating an exogenous source of variation in perceived prices, which is exploited in a regression-discontinuity design. The estimates reveal that a price increase in the utility bill received by consumers causes a substantial and prompt decline in gas consumption. Hence they suggest that policy interventions via the price mechanism, such as price caps and subsidies, are powerful instruments to influence residential energy utilization patterns, even within a short time span. Energy consumption, Elasticity of demand, Regulation of public utilities, Regression discontinuity design, Public policy Number 4702 2011-01 L95 D12 L51 Q41 Q48 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-234&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-234.pdf application/pdf Paulo Bastos pbastos@iadb.org Lucio Castro Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Unemployment is a pressing problem in many countries in Latin America. Financial crises and increased globalization increase job turnover and therefore the risk of unemployment. To protect workers, Chile implemented an innovative unemployment insurance (UI) system. UI protects workers but creates moral hazard and self-selection issues. Using administrative data for the period 2007 to 2010, the effect of the 2009 reform of UI on job search behavior was studied. The results revealed different job search behavior between workers who use unemployment benefits and those who do not. Search efforts were found to fall as long as unemployment benefits are in place. There is strong evidence that workers who decide not to take UI despite having the right to do so have a higher probability of finding a new job. Number 4784 2012-06 E24 J64 J65 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36747010 application/pdf Cristobal Huneeus Silvia Leiva Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los países que tienen lo que se considera como regímenes de cambio flotante (o de bandas muy amplias) muestran patrones notablemente diferentes de conducta. Mantienen niveles sumamente distintos de reservas internacionales y permiten niveles de inestabilidad en cuanto a las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio muy distintos en relación con la inestabilidad que toleran bien sea al nivel de las reservas o en cuanto a las tasas de interés. Documentamos estas diferencias y presentamos un modelo que las explica como la respuesta óptima a un banco central que intenta minimizar una función de pérdida estándar, en un entorno en el que las empresas se hallan ante limitaciones crediticias y mercados incompletos restringen su capacidad de evitar descalces de la moneda. Este modelo sugiere que la diferencia en la manera en que los países manejan sus sistemas de cambio flotante puede tener que ver con sus diversos niveles de transmisión del tipo de cambio y las diferencias en su capacidad de evitar descalces cambiarios. Ponemos a prueba estas implicaciones y hallamos una relación muy estrecha y sólida entre el patrón de flotación y la capacidad de un país de endeudarse internacionalmente en su propia moneda. Hallamos elementos de juicio más débiles y menos valederos sobre la importancia de la transmisión que explican las diferencias entre los países, con respecto a su gestión monetaria y del tipo de cambio. Number 4206 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-418&pub_file_name=pubWP-418.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Ugo Panizza Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46882019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint While effective industrial policy requires close cooperation between government and business, there is little agreement on what makes that cooperation work best. This paper analyzes institutional arrangements for public-private cooperation and the character of private sector representation. Questions on institutional design focus on three main issues: i) maximizing the benefits of dialogue and information exchange; ii) motivating participation through authoritative allocation; and iii) minimizing unproductive rent seeking. Key elements in the nature of business representation through associations are the quality of research staff and internal mechanisms for reconciling divergent preferences within associations. The empirical analysis also disaggregates councils by scope (economy-wide versus targeted), function (trade, upgrading, technology, etc.), sector (agriculture, industry, services), and level (national, provincial, and municipal). Industrial policy, Business-Government relations, Rent seeking Number 4688 2010-10 O25 O32 O54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-167&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-167.pdf application/pdf Ben Ross Schneider

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Según los resultados de encuestas de opinión pública de Apoyo S. A. , hacia 1991 la inflación, el terrorismo y el desempleo eran, en ese orden, los problemas más graves que afectaban a la población peruana. Hacia mediados de los noventa, resuelto el problema inflacionario, y atenuado significativamente el terrorismo, las mismas encuestas indican que el desempleo y la falta de empleo, son percibidos como los problemas más graves que aquejan a la población peruana. Este documento compara las reformas estructurales en relación al desempleo en el Perú. Number 4149 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-388&pub_file_name=pubWP-388.pdf application/pdf Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Europe faces challenges reminiscent of Latin American financial crises. The failure of recent liquidity support to normalize the situation in Europe suggests the need to refocus the policy debate on fundamentals: structural reform for growth and, where needed, restructuring to resolve banking crises and the debt overhang. Latin America’s experience yields relevant policy lessons for Europe on those fronts except concerning the use of sharp real devaluations to spearhead recovery: euro-zone countries following suit by reintroducing devalued national currencies would invite catastrophe. Despite this constraint, Europe stands a better chance of navigating the path out of the crisis because it has cooperative mechanisms unavailable in Latin America. European cooperation can provide support for orderly crisis resolution as well as growth and competitiveness within the currency union fold, to the benefit of all members. However, the path is uncharted, and successful regional cooperation will require innovation and political will. Number 4804 2012-10 E61 F33 F34 F36 F53 G01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37192901 application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46472019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses new data on fiscal transparency for a cross-section of countries; these data possess several advantages. First, the data are based on in-depth reports using a standardized methodology and protocol. Second, this study covers 82 countries, more than previous comparable studies. Third, the fiscal measures used have been obtained with the collaboration of government authorities, which makes them particularly reliable. Finally, the data collection has been undertaken at a high level. These new data permit examination of a relevant but little-studied issue, the role of institutional quality in a country’s fiscal transparency. It is shown that there is in fact a causal relationship between institutions and transparency. The findings are robust to changes in specification and a host of transparency sub-measures. Fiscal management, Institutions, Public administration, Transparency Number 4647 2009-12 H50 H83 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-125&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-125.pdf application/pdf Nicolo Andreula Alberto Chong Jorge Guillen

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se presenta un análisis de tres casos específicos de surgimiento de otras tantas actividades de exportación exitosas en México: producción de aguacate, fabricación de catéteres y centros de llamadas telefónicas como servicio contratado externamente. En cada uno de esos casos específicos se analiza la manera en que empresas, asociaciones y gobiernos a varios niveles han manejado crisis de mercado y facilitado el suministro de los bienes públicos necesarios para cada actividad. El análisis de estos casos específicos presenta además una descripción de las características de los actores principales en cada ramo de actividad, así como las externalidades positivas que brindan a los emuladores, especialmente la difusión de conocimientos sobre exportación. También se presenta en cada área un caso opuesto de actividad menos exitosa (producción de mango, banco de células madres y la contratación externa de otros tipos de procesos empresariales, respectivamente) así como una sección sobre implicaciones de políticas. Agriculture, Exports, Manufacturing, Services, Mexico Number 3269 2009-02 H41 L26 L65 L84 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-555&pub_file_name=pubR-555.pdf application/pdf Edgar Aragon Anne Fouquet Marcia Campos

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses data from the Mexican Family Life Survey to estimate the impact of a household member’s migration to the United States on the cognitive development of children remaining in Mexico. While there is no developmental effect of a child’s sibling migrating to the United States, there is an adverse effect when another household member—typically the child’s parent—migrates. This is particularly true for pre-school to early-school-age children with older siblings, for whom the effect of parental migration is comparable to speaking an indigenous language at home or having a mother with very low educational attainment. Additionally, household-member migration to the United States affects how children spend their time in ways that may influence and/or be influenced by cognitive development. Number 4721 2011-05 I12 I38 J11 J61 O15 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36192049 application/pdf Elizabeth Powers

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46012019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint If rating agencies add no new information to markets, their actions are not a public policy concern. But as rating changes may be anticipated, testing whether ratings add value is not straightforward. This paper argues that ratings and spreads are both noisy signals of fundamentals and suggest ratings add value if, controlling for spreads, they help explain other variables. The paper additionally analyzes the different actions (ratings and outlooks) of the three leading agencies for sovereign debt, also considering the differing effects of more or less anticipated events. The results are consistent across a wide range of tests. Ratings do matter and hence how the market for ratings functions may be a public policy concern. Number 4601 2008-11 F37 G14 G15 C23 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-647&pub_file_name=pubWP-647.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org Roberto Rigobon

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El estudio comparativo del que este papel de trabajo forma parte (Los Maestros en América Latina: Carreras e Incentivos) fue emprendido para intentar avanzar en el conocimiento de los incentivos y factores institucionales que determinan la composición del cuerpo docente y que influencian el desempeño profesional del mismo, en un grupo de países de la región. Cada uno de los estudios se propuso, en un país diferente: 1) estimar los perfiles típicos (socio-económicos, educativos y motivacionales) de aquellos que estudian para ser maestros y de aquellos que ejercen la profesión, comparándolos con ciertos grupos relevantes y, 2) estimar el efecto que los incentivos institucionales que enfrentan los maestros—manteniendo constantes las características personales de los mismos—tienen en la conducta de los maestros y en su percepción de sus derechos y obligaciones. Se prestó especial atención a los aspectos institucionales directamente vinculados a las condiciones de nombramiento, ascenso, compensación, supervisión y despido del personal docente, tal como se encuentran recogidos en los contratos laborales formales e informales en el marco de los cuales los maestros trabajan. En cada uno de los países incluidos en el estudio se compararon diversas variantes de organización escolar, para mejorar la posibilidad de apreciar diferentes conjuntos de incentivos en funcionamiento. Desde la perspectiva de la política educativa, se espera que la información revelada en este trabajo y en los correspondientes a otros países, así como en el estudio comparativo contenido en un libro en preparación, contribuya a tomar decisiones conducentes tanto a mejorar el desempeño del cuerpo docente actual como a configurar el cuerpo docente del futuro cercano de manera consistente con la elevación de la calidad educativa en América Latina. Number 3127 2001-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-430&pub_file_name=pubR-430.pdf application/pdf Olga Ramos Milko González Josefina Bruni Celli

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Desarrollos económicos recientes han puesto de manifiesto la vulnerabilidad de América Latina a los desajustes económicos y financieros producidos por sucesos que tienen lugar en puntos distantes del planeta. La crisis financiera de Asia que se inició en 1997 y la crisis de Rusia, más reciente, han dejado a la región profundamente sacudida y con el temor de un colapso a gran escala. Este contagio se ha producido a través de varios canales. El colapso de la demanda de Asia ha contribuido a la reciente baja de los precios mundiales de los productos básicos (commodities), lo que ha reducido los ingresos por concepto de exportación de las regiones que dependen de esos productos y ha afectado las finanzas públicas en numerosos países. La devaluación en Rusia ha hecho surgir el fantasma del incumplimiento soberano, lo que ha hecho que inversionistas en todo el mundo se sientan más temerosos de aumentar su exposición más allá de sus fronteras. Las crisis financieras de Asia y Rusia también han socavado gravemente los balances generales de los inversionistas de mercados emergentes, reduciendo su capacidad de invertir en la región y obligándolos a rematar inversiones en América Latina. En este trabajo se describen las políticas fiscales y financieras que pueden ayudar a proteger a las economías contra la clase de turbulencia financiera general que está experimentando el mundo actualmente. Las políticas cambiarias se tratan en un trabajo aparte. Number 4173 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-401&pub_file_name=pubWP-401.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La importancia de los costos del transporte ha venido aumentando a medida que la apertura económica continúa reduciendo las barreras artificiales al comercio internacional. Los países necesitan adoptar políticas que les permitan `acercarse` a los mercados mundiales. ¿Es posible reducir los costos del transporte mediante el mejoramiento de la infraestructura y la normativa? ¿Conviene poner en práctica políticas destinadas a aumentar la competencia en los mercados de transporte? Este trabajo se concentra en el transporte aéreo, el cual aumentó su participación en las importaciones de EE. UU. de 24% en 1990 a 35% en 2000, para cuantificar los efectos de la infraestructura, la calidad de la normativa y la apertura de los mercados del transporte aéreo de carga sobre los costos del transporte. Durante los años 90, EE. UU. suscribió una serie de acuerdos de `cielos abiertos`, los cuales han propiciado una oportunidad única para evaluar los efectos de un cambio en el régimen de competencia sobre los precios. Hallamos que la infraestructura, la calidad de la normativa y la competencia sí importan. En nuestra muestra, una mejora de la infraestructura aeroportuaria de 75% a 25% hace disminuir los costos del transporte aéreo en 15%. Una mejora similar de la calidad de la normativa hace disminuir los costos del transporte aéreo en 14%. Además, los acuerdos de `cielos abiertos` hacen reducir los costos del transporte aéreo en 8%. Number 4370 2004-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-510&pub_file_name=pubWP-510.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Tomas Serebrisky

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preprint This paper reviews the regulations governing hiring, firing, overtime work, social security contributions, minimum wages, and collective bargaining in the region, examining their impact on labor market outcomes. Number 4118 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-373&pub_file_name=pubWP-373.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the finances and the effect of credit limitations on the behavior and performance of firms in Costa Rica. The study is based on a survey of manufacturing firms conducted by the authors during 2001. The paper characterizes the profile firms’ finances, examines the determinants of firms’ access to banking credit and tries to assess the effect of credit constraints on the behavior and performance of firms. The paper finds that while banks are the main source of credit for larger firms, non-banking credit (trade plus informal credit) remains the leading source of funds for smaller firms. Moreover, own funds and informal credit is a leading form of credit for newly created firms. It is also found that the probability of having banking credit and the fraction of banking credit/total debt is mostly affected by (if anything) characteristics of the firm and not by those of their owners. Indeed, the firm’s value and age, and whether it keeps formal accounting procedures appear as the most relevant determinants of access to banking credit. With respect to the starting up finances of firms, the data is not conclusive on the determinants of banking credit, yet it suggests a negative relationship with the previous entrepreneurship experience of the owner. The paper discusses different explanations, all of which highlight the importance of credit constraints. Adopting ideas from the econometric literature on treatment effects, the paper explores the effect of banking credit on the behavior and performance of firms. Two different methods are used to correct for selection biases: a parametric two-step point method and a non-parametric method that estimates upper and lower bounds for the effects. While the results are not statistically conclusive, both methods do suggest that having access to banking credit positively affects firms’ performance. Number 3164 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-471&pub_file_name=pubR-471.pdf application/pdf Alexander Monge-Naranjo Luis J. Hall

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preprint Financial crises in both emerging and developed economies have been characterized by large output drops and spikes in unemployment and interest rates. To account for these stylized facts this paper builds a business cycle model where financial and labor market frictions interact as occasionally binding borrowing constraints and search frictions. The model is calibrated to a Sudden Stop-prone emerging economy and also to some peripheral European economies in the recent crisis. The model accounts for unemployment dynamics both during crises and at regular business cycle frequencies. The paper also assesses the welfare implications of policies that reduce real minimum wages during crises. Number IDB-WP-390 2013-02 E32 E44 F41 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37527472 application/pdf Andres Fernandez andresf@iadb.org Juan Herreno

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preprint Industrial agglomerations or `clusters` arise in the presence of industry-specific and local externalities, also called Marshallian externalities. The standard argument is that such externalities may justify a policy of infant-industry protection to allow and encourage clusters to emerge. This paper explores that argument and shows that different policy implications emerge under a more realistic modeling of clusters. In particular, rather than distorting prices to promote clusters in `advanced`sectors that may exhibit strong clustering possibilities, countries should focus instead on promoting clustering in current sectors that have demonstrated the strongest comparative advantage. Import substitution is not a proper way to achieve such a goal. Number 4391 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-523&pub_file_name=pubWP-523.pdf application/pdf Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Financial contagion and Sudden Stops of capital inflows experienced in emerging-markets crises may originate in an explosive mix of lack of policy credibility and world capital market imperfections that afflict emerging economies with national currencies. Hence, this paper argues that abandoning national currencies to adopt a hard currency can significantly reduce the emerging countries` vulnerability to these crises. The credibility of their financial policies would be greatly enhanced by the implicit subordination to the policymaking institutions of the hard currency issuer. Their access to international capital markets would improve as the same expertise and information that global investors already gather to evaluate the monetary policy of the hard currency issuer would apply to emerging economies. Yet, adopting a hard currency does not eliminate business cycles, rule out all forms of financial crises, or solve severe fiscal problems that plague emerging economies, and it entails giving up seigniorage and potential benefits of conducting independent monetary policy. However, these disadvantages seem dwarfed by the urgent need to enable emerging countries to access global capital markets without exposing them to the risk of recurrent Sudden Stops. Number 4309 2002-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-474&pub_file_name=pubWP-474.pdf application/pdf Enrique Mendoza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the role of social networks in determining the participation of Bolivian women in income-generating activities. The empirical analysis intends to explore the impact of this new social variable on the economic choices of women and its relative importance with respect to other individual characteristics, such as education or number of children in the household. The empirical framework defines social network as the average outcome of people living in the same neighborhood. Estimation results suggest that social networks are an effective channel through which women obtain access to salaried jobs, which are of higher quality than jobs as self-employers. In contrast, their male counterparts find a positive but statistically insignificant effect from social networks. When considering the sex of the contact, it is found that women in urban areas benefit from other women being employed, while in rural areas women benefit from the presence of more employed male workers. Number 3240 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-540&pub_file_name=pubR-540.pdf application/pdf Dante Contreras Daniela Zapata Diana Kruger Marcelo Ochoa

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30802019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Se estudia los determinantes de tres tipos de corrupción en hospitales públicos en Venezuela: el cobro de comisión en las compras de insumos, el hurto o sustracción de materiales y medicamentos, y el incumplimiento laboral (ausentismo) de los médicos y enfermeras. Los determinantes se establecen mediante los modelos tradicionales de crimen y teoría de agencia, basados en el cálculo del beneficio esperado del acto de corrupción. También se analiza la relación entre los elementos del diseño institucional y los determinantes de la corrupción, con especial énfasis en las variables que afectan la probabilidad de captura y sanción. Se encuentra evidencia de la existencia de cobro de comisión en los hospitales públicos, pero el modelo teórico no se comprueba empíricamente. Escasa o ninguna información sobre la existencia de cobro de comisiones en muchos hospitales de la muestra, y la posibilidad de colusión entre los principales y agentes responsables de las compras distorsionan los resultados. El nivel de hurto está relacionado positivamente con el beneficio potencial, y negativamente con el monto esperado de la pena y la probabilidad de captura. El hurto no está relacionado con el nivel de remuneración del personal. Las probabilidades de captura y sanción están asociadas a los controles y a la autonomía en el manejo del recurso humano por parte del director del hospital, respectivamente. El nivel de ausentismo está asociado empíricamente a la probabilidad de captura, el salario de eficiencia, la probabilidad de sanción y el monto de la pena. Los determinantes del incumplimiento laboral de los médicos y las enfermeras son distintos. Se comprueba una relación entre diseño institucional y la probabilidad de captura. Number 3080 1999-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-380&pub_file_name=pubR-380.pdf application/pdf Maria Helena Jaén Daniel Paravisini

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the social, ethnic and regional determinants of child malnutrition, as well as the effects of access to health services in the Andean region, by comparing conditions in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia. These three countries are marked by a high prevalence of stunting and by wide socioeconomic, regional and ethnic disparities. The analysis used Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Peru (1992, 1996 and 2000) and Bolivia (1997), and Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) data for Ecuador (1998). The paper adopts an international comparative perspective, analyzing Ecuador in particular detail. Number 3189 2005-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-495&pub_file_name=pubR-495.pdf application/pdf Carlos Larrea Pedro Montalvo Ana María Ricaurte

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The paper uses microeconomic data to characterize entrepreneurs by income group and selected household, individual and business characteristics, finding that entrepreneurship is rare but more frequent in the upper class than the middle or lower classes. Middle-class entrepreneurs are, on average, better off than middle-class employees of similar characteristics but differ greatly from upper-class entrepreneurs in terms of educational attainment, the size of their businesses, and their outcomes. While entrepreneurs appear to have more income mobility than the average worker, this paper cannot establish whether this is true for middle-class entrepreneurs in particular, nor provide evidence to support the hypothesis that middle-class entrepreneurs’ activity is an engine for economic growth. Instead, the findings suggest that the types of businesses run by these entrepreneurs are characterized by low productivity. Consequently, policies to increase social mobility seem to hold greater promise for promoting higher productivity and welfare than policies encouraging entrepreneurship. Number 4797 2012-09 I31 L26 O12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37123490 application/pdf Paula Mejia Marcela Melendez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper shows that bank linkages have a positive effect on international trade. A global banking network (GBN) is constructed at the bank level, using individual syndicated loan data from Loan Analytics for 1990-2007. Network distance between bank pairs is computed and aggregated to country pairs as a measure of bank linkages between countries. Data on bilateral trade from IMF DOTS are used as the subject of the analysis and data on bilateral bank lending from BIS locational data are used to control for financial integration and financial flows. Using a gravity approach to modeling trade with country-pair and year fixed effects, the paper finds that new connections between banks in a given country-pair lead to an increase in trade flow in the following year, even after controlling for the stock and flow of bank lending between the two countries. It is conjectured that the mechanism for this effect is that bank linkages reduce export risk, and four sets of results that support this conjecture are presented. Number IDB-WP-445 2013-12 F10 F15 F34 F36 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38311608 application/pdf Galina Hale Christopher Candelaria Julian Caballero julianc@iadb.org Sergey Borisov

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La evolución macroeconómica uruguaya en los últimos quince años ha sido satisfactoria, tomando como referencia el desempeño que había caracterizado a este país desde mediados de los cincuenta. El crecimiento económico ha sido sostenido desde que Uruguay salió de la crisis cambiaria y financiera. Este estudio presenta una percepción del desempleo en Uruguay. Number 4139 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-383&pub_file_name=pubWP-383.pdf application/pdf Julio de Brun Gaston J. Labadie

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Durante buena parte de la era previa a la globalización, desde la década de 1860 hasta la I Guerra Mundial, Estados Unidos mantuvo aranceles sorprendentemente elevados. Los historiadores que se ocupan del tema económico actual han sugerido que el proteccionismo de EE. UU. fue producto de una `reacción violenta` contra la globalización que fue el comienzo de su fin. También han sostenido que esa reacción violenta encierra una enseñanza para el presente: específicamente, que debemos ocuparnos de las desigualdades de la distribución que engendra la globalización, o de lo contrario la globalización volverá a sembrar la semilla de su propia destrucción. Demuestro que los aranceles de EE. UU. no fueron el producto de una reacción violenta. Un recuento de ideas sobre economía en EE. UU. durante el Siglo XIX concentrado en dos comisiones arancelarias en 1866-1870 y 1882 revela que las ideas debatidas en los círculos intelectuales y de políticas de ese entonces no mostraban señal alguna de una reacción violenta contra la globalización. La característica importante de la historia intelectual y arancelaria de EE. UU. no es una reacción violenta contra la globalización, sino más bien la falta, en la mayoría de los recuentos históricos, de ciertos pensadores e ideas que fueron fundamentales para la discusión. Por consiguiente, la enseñanza que encierra la historia para la actualidad no es que debemos ocuparnos de las desigualdades de la globalización. (Es probable que esa enseñanza se mantenga o quede fuera de la historia). En vez de eso, se trata de que necesitamos ocuparnos de la idea de la reacción violenta, la cual tiene un asidero en la historia más profundo que los elementos de juicio. La enseñanza implica que para entender el presente y el futuro de la globalización, lo que se necesita son recuentos históricos de las ideas. Number 4312 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-476&pub_file_name=pubWP-476.pdf application/pdf Stephen Meardon

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las últimas crisis financieras y contagios recientes hacen cuestionar lo acertado de la apertura de la cuenta de capital. Existe el consenso de que hay algo pésimamente malo con la manera en que funcionan los mercados financieros en el caso de los países en desarrollo y que urge hallar una solución. Pero, ¿qué es lo que no funciona? La mayoría de los puntos de vista en los países desarrollados identifican los problemas con un exceso de flujos de capitales atraídos por el riesgo moral. Sin embargo, nuestro análisis muestra que el papel de esta distorsión se está exagerando demasiado y que, por contraste, las principales distorsiones en los marcados financieros internacionales se vinculan con flujos de capitales muy exiguos, restringidos por el riesgo soberano y excesivamente inestables debido a las fallas del mercado. Number 4226 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-429&pub_file_name=pubWP-429.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El propósito de este trabajo es diseñar un modelo macroeconómico para Guatemala, a los efectos de utilizarlo en las tareas de análisis llevadas a cabo por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID). Con este objetivo en mente, el modelo reúne las cualidades de i) consistencia, ii) valor predictivo, y iii) operatividad y versatilidad. El modelo utiliza como insumo información trimestral y anual para el período 1991-2005, y arroja predicciones anuales para el quinquenio 2006-2010. Number 2013 2008-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-159&pub_file_name=pubCSI-159_esp.pdf application/pdf Ricardo N. Bebczuk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se emplea una función CES para calcular la elasticidad constante de la sustitución en el consumo de bienes no transables, en comparación con bienes transables en el marco de una economía dependiente. La metodología seguida para la generación de datos sobre el consumo real de bienes transables y no transables, los precios reales de los bienes transables y no transables y la absorción real se basan en la matriz de entradas-salidas de Bolivia, los datos trimestrales sobre producción para el período de enero de 1990 a abril de 2002. Los datos identifican a Bolivia como un país altamente abierto al comercio, con una proporción media de 55% en el valor de sus exportaciones e importaciones en relación con el PIB; la producción de bienes no transables representa 52% del PIB, así como las diferencias en el comportamiento de los tipos de cambio real interno y externo. Se emplea la prueba HEGY para identificar y separar las raíces estacionales de los datos. Se halló una relación de cointegración entre la absorción real, la proporción entre el consumo de bienes no transables y de bienes transables y la relación de precios de bienes no transables a bienes transables, lo que sugiere que la sustitución no es elástica. Number 3182 2005-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-488&pub_file_name=pubR-488.pdf application/pdf Gover Barja Daza Javier Monterrey Arce Sergio Villarroel Bohrt

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se trata el patrón cambiante de los ingresos de capitales a los países en desarrollo. El análisis se ve considerablemente distorsionado por acontecimientos recientes. Se concentra en los hechos, desarrollos y políticas principales que caracterizan el episodio actual de entradas de capitales a Asia y América Latina. Number 4003 1994-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-302&pub_file_name=pubWP-302.pdf application/pdf Leonardo Leiderman Guillermo A. Calvo Carmen Reinhart

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45882019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analizan las brechas salariales atribuibles al sexo y la etnicidad en Guatemala entre 2000 y 2006. Se hallan brechas salariales pronunciadas a lo largo tanto de dimensiones sexuales como étnicas. Las brechas salariales en Guatemala obedecen parcialmente a diferencias de características del capital humano, especialmente educación, entre grupos indígenas y no indígenas, y entre hombres y mujeres, lo que requiere la igualación de las oportunidades educacionales. Sin embargo, las brechas salariales son mayores de lo que predicen las diferencias educacionales, lo que hace pensar que la necesidad de campañas informativas para elevar la conciencia de la necesidad de igualdad de oportunidades en los mercados laborales. Number 4588 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-641&pub_file_name=pubWP-641.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Alberto Gonzales

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preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Desde mediados de los años 80 se ha producido un cambio profundo en la dirección de las políticas estructurales en la región. El modelo de desarrollo basado en la protección de los mercados nacionales y la intervención del Estado fue reemplazado por un conjunto de políticas destinadas principalmente al fomento de la eficiencia, la facilitación del funcionamiento de los mercados y la reducción de los efectos distorsionantes de la intervención oficial en las actividades económicas. Una versión previa de este artículo (Lora, 1997) respondió a la falta hasta ese momento de cuantificaciones del avance de las reformas. Tal como se sostuvo a la sazón, la falta de cuantificaciones directas de las políticas estructurales había entorpecido la evaluación adecuada de los efectos de las reformas en el crecimiento económico y otras variables. Los pocos estudios que habían intentado analizar los efectos de las reformas habían empleado variables de resultados, tales como la proporción de comercio internacional en la economía o el tamaño del gasto público, o la profundidad del sistema financiero, en vez de variables de políticas, tales como aranceles, niveles tributarios o niveles de encaje legal. Los índices de reforma propuestos en ese entonces sirvieron como base de varios estudios en los que se analizaron las repercusiones de las reformas y se estimuló la definición de otros indicadores de reforma. Number 4294 2001-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-466&pub_file_name=pubWP-466.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo forma parte de una serie de estudios realizados en el marco del proyecto “La efectividad de las redes de protección social: el rol de los sistemas integrados de información social”. Los estudios de caso fueron realizados en el período 2007-2008. El enfoque privilegiado en la elaboración de este estudio es más práctico que teórico y más gerencial que académico. El autor agradece al Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) su invitación para elaborar este trabajo. Asimismo, agradece a Concepción Steta, Angélica Castañeda, María Farell, Ramiro Ornelas y Carlos Rodríguez por su apoyo y por el trabajo eficaz realizado en los años compartidos en Oportunidades. Una especial mención merecen los creadores del Programa Progresa (actualmente denominado Oportunidades) y, por ende, los hacedores de los fundamentos y los primeros pasos del sistema que aquí se estudia. El autor agradece en especial a Daniel Hernández y Mónica Orozco, así como a Santiago Levy, quien apoyó siempre el Programa y su mejora continua. Por último, el autor expresa su agradecimiento a Beatriz Straffon por su colaboración en la elaboración de este documento. Number 4708 2011-02 H83 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-TN-195&pub_file_name=pubIDB-TN-195_esp.pdf application/pdf Rogelio Gomez Hermosillo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the proposition that capital inflows tend to take the form of FDI--i. e. , the share of FDI in total liabilities tends to be higher--in countries that are safer, more promising and with better institutions and policies. It finds that this view is patently wrong since it stands the historical record on its head. It then uses alternative theories to make sense of the facts. It begins by studying the determinants of the size and composition of the flows of private capital across countries. It finds that while capital flows tend to go to countries that are safer and have better institutions and financial markets, the share of FDI in total flows is not an indication of good health. On the contrary, countries that are riskier, less financially developed and have weaker institutions tend to attract less capital but more of it in the form of FDI. Hence, interpreting the rising share of FDI as a sign of good health is unwarranted. This is even more so, given that FDI`s recent rise has taken place while total private capital inflows have fallen. Number 4203 2000-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-417&pub_file_name=pubWP-417.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In the continuing debate over how to improve education systems, many people argue that teachers` salaries need to be increased. This paper seeks to establish a reliable method for analyzing the issue using household survey data from Bolivia. Number 4122 1998-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-375&pub_file_name=pubWP-375.pdf application/pdf Claudia Piras William D. Savedoff

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30842019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint We first review the existing theories on the implications of the various regulations that protect creditors. We then empirically investigate the cost and benefits of the strict protection of creditors` rights. Building on the sample of 49 countries developed by La Porta et al. (1998), we study the impact on debt volume, interest rates and default rates of both an aggregate measure of the degree of protection of creditor rights and efficiency of the judicial system. We confirm previous results showing that an effective judicial system is crucial for the development and optimal performance of the credit market. Yet, in contrast to previous studies, we find no conclusive evidence on the sign and magnitude of the effect of creditors` rights protection on credit market efficiency. Instead, macroeconomic stability appears to be crucial for the outgrowth of wide debt markets. Number 3084 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-384&pub_file_name=pubR-384.pdf application/pdf Atilano Jorge Padilla Alejandro Requejo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Catastrophes caused by natural disasters are by no means new, yet the evolving understanding of their relevance to economic development and growth is still in its infancy. In order to facilitate further necessary research on this topic, this paper summarizes the state of the economic literature examining the aggregate impact of disasters. The paper reviews the main disaster data sources available, discusses the determinants of the direct effects of disasters, and distinguishes between short- and long-run indirect effects. The paper then examines some of the relevant policy questions and follows up with projections about the likelihood of future disasters, while paying particular attention to climate change. The paper ends by identifying several significant gaps in the literature. Natural disasters, Climate change, Growth Number 4649 2009-12 O11 O40 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-124&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-124.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Cavallo Ilan Noy

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43882019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se emplea una nueva base de datos de la composición cambiaria de activos y pasivos para analizar los factores determinantes y las consecuencias de los descalces cambiarios en empresas no financieras chilenas. Al igual que en estudios anteriores al nivel de empresa en Chile, descubrimos que en períodos siguientes a una depreciación, las empresas con más deuda denominada en dólares no registran un desempeño menor que sus contrapartes con pasivos denominados en pesos. No obstante, una vez que controlamos adecuadamente las diferencias en la composición en divisas de los activos, los ingresos y las posiciones en derivados netos, sí descubrimos un efecto considerable en el balance general. Hallamos además que los instrumentos derivados desempeñan un papel importante de aislamiento de las inversiones empresariales contra las sacudidas del tipo de cambio. Siguiendo la misma dirección de estudios anteriores, también hallamos pruebas de correspondencia cambiaria entre las empresas chilenas. En Chile, las compañías consiguen reducir los riesgos vinculados con la exposición al riesgo cambiario al hacer corresponder la composición en divisas de sus pasivos con la de sus ingresos y activos, así como también adquiriendo instrumentos derivados si no hay disponibles instrumentos de cobertura reales. Por último, hallamos cambios significativos en el nivel de exposición neta a las divisas tras la introducción del régimen de cambio flotante en 1999. Sostenemos que una interpretación posible de estos resultados se debe al efecto de una mayor variación del tipo de cambio sobre el riesgo relativo de la deuda interna y externa. Number 4388 2005-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-521&pub_file_name=pubWP-521.pdf application/pdf Kevin Cowan Erwin Hansen Luis Oscar Herrera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In light of recent results, the fight against poverty in Latin America has been far from satisfactory. The standard approach of multicultural credit agencies will continue to be limited if it does not stress the central role of the distribution as well as the accumulation of productive assets, especially human capital. After removing fiscal and trade distortions with structural reforms, insufficient levels of human and physical capital accumulation and highly skewed asset distribution are critical growth constraints for Latin America. Policies aimed at reducing inequalities in assets accumulation should be at the center of a new approach for poverty eradication and increased growth in Latin America at the start of the new century. Number 4066 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-344&pub_file_name=pubWP-344.pdf application/pdf Nancy Birdsall Juan Luis Londoño

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper, social mobility is measured by looking at the extent to which family background determines socioeconomic success. An index of social mobility for developing countries is proposed based on the correlation of schooling gaps between siblings. Number 4158 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-393&pub_file_name=pubWP-393.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys housing finance in Costa Rica, El Salvador and Panama. The development of a secondary mortgage-backed securities market in Costa Rica is very limited despite a broad legal framework, while in El Salvador it is nonexistent and in Panama has not grown due to high liquidity. In Costa Rica’s subsidy policy, core institutions responsible for housing policy act as facilitators of private agents. This contrasts with the dispersion of policy and institutional efforts identified in Panama and El Salvador. Government subsidies are especially directed to households where more of 90 percent of the housing deficit is concentrated. A solution based on public budgets is not sustainable, requiring an active role of the private housing finance sector. Increasing the purchase capacity of families and reducing the cost of financing are necessary conditions to reduce housing deficits. Number 4761 2012-01 G10 G18 G28 H81 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36623624 application/pdf Francisco Sancho Luis Rivera Julio Rosales

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo emplea dados de nivel micro de procedimientos judiciales en Uruguay para mostrar pruebas de que las acusadas reciben un tratamiento más favorable en los tribunales que los acusados. Esto se debe a procedimientos más prolongados de remate judicial y a que hay una mayor probabilidad de que se concedan prórrogas en los procesos de desalojo a las acusadas. Number 3251 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-546&pub_file_name=pubR-546.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Gandelman Nestor Gandelman Julie Rothschild

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint As a region the Caribbean countries are net exporters of hydrocarbons. However, all exports of natural gas and crude oil are concentrated in one country, Trinidad and Tobago. The rest of the region taken as a whole is net importer of hydrocarbons. The largest countries in the region are heavily dependent on imported crude oil and products as their main source of primary energy. The trend has intensified over recent years. Net-importing countries in the region have more than doubled their annual per capita consumption of oil over the last two decades. Trinidad and Tobago could supply the region’s hydrocarbon needs. However, very little effort has been made by the importing countries to substitute gas from Trinidad and Tobago for oil from other extra regional sources. There are a number of initiatives under way to reduce the region’s dependence on imported hydrocarbons: Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline (ECGP); Eastern Caribbean Geothermal Energy Project (Geo-Caraïbes); Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Programme (CREDP); Petrocaribe Energy Cooperation Agreement and Production of Biofuels. The IDB together with CARICOM and the Caribbean Development Bank are concentrating efforts in to promote the development of biofuels in the region, with specific programs in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. Furthermore, there individual country efforts to implement mid-term plans to increase their energy efficiency and diversify their Energy Matrices away from oil, among these countries it is worth highlighting: Jamaica, Guyana and Barbados. Finally, the IDB is sponsoring a number of technical studies with the objectives of developing renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency. Beyond these initiatives, an avenue that is worth exploring is enhancing regional integration, especially through small-scale trading of natural gas between Trinidad and Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean. Number 2007 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-114&pub_file_name=pubCSI-114.pdf application/pdf Ramón Espinasa

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31132019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper we analyze the evolution of family structure, human capital accumulation and returns, labor force participation and household consumption and savings decisions for Mexican households. We use as theoretical framework the Life Cycle Model. Our analysis is based on a synthetic panel technique as proposed by Browning, Deaton and Irish (1985) that allows us to track the average behavior of cohorts over successive surveys. Mexico went through important demographic and socioeconomic changes between the mid-1970s and mid-1980s, simultaneously with the government`s implementation of different policies as well as some institutional changes, including an important birth control program and the expansion of educational opportunities. A reduction in fertility and an increase in the schooling of women are observed simultaneously with an increase in women`s labor force participation. Most of this process is dominated by age and cohort effects. In terms of consumption-saving decisions, we find that this reduction in the number of children and the increase in women`s labor force participation, reinforced by higher investment in education and higher rate of returns, have been correlated with higher saving rates for younger cohorts, particularly those where the head has higher educational levels. Number 3113 2000-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-415&pub_file_name=pubR-415.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua Andrés Zamudio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Child health is a central issue on the public policy agenda of developing countries. Several policies geared to improving child health have been implemented over the years, with varying degrees of success. In Brazil, such policies have led to a significant decline in infant mortality rates over the last 30 years. Despite this improvement, however, mortality rates are still high by international standards and there is substantial variation across Brazilian municipalities, which suggests that differentiated policies should be devised. The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of infant mortality at the municipal level, and to provide a more detailed analysis by considering the factors that affect child health at the individual level. To analyze the mortality rate, static and dynamic panel data models are estimated using four censuses covering the period 1970-2000. The demand for child health is addressed through a household decision model, estimated using anthropometric data from the 1996 Standard of Living Survey. The results indicate that sanitation, education and per capita income contributed to the decline in infant mortality in Brazil, the effects being stronger in the long run than in the short run. The fixed effects associated with municipality characteristics help explain the observed dispersion in child mortality rates. The results of the decision model are in line with the mortality model findings: education, sanitation and poverty are the most important explanatory factors of poor child health in Brazil. Number 3187 2005-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-493&pub_file_name=pubR-493.pdf application/pdf Denisard Alves Walter Belluzzo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the impact of public investment on private investment in panel of 116 developing countries between 1980 and 2006 using dynamic panel data techniques, finding a strong and robust crowding-out effect that seems to be the norm rather than the exception, both across regions and over time. It is also found that this effect is dampened (or even reversed) in countries with better institutions and that are more open to international trade and financial flows. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that, while public infrastructure may be complementary to private capital in the aggregate production function, there are distortions associated with the public investment process that might render a crowding out of private investment in the course of building public capital stocks. These distortions, in turn, are more prevalent in countries with worse institutions or that lack trade and financial openness. Number 4597 2008-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-648&pub_file_name=pubWP-648.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Christian Daude

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Un sondeo reciente ha mostrado que el problema principal que encaran las empresas en los países latinoamericanos es la dificultad para acceder a los mercados financieros. El gráfico resume los hallazgos de la Encuesta del ambiente de negocios (Business Environment Survey) y los obstáculos que encaran las empresas. Number 4260 2001-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-448&pub_file_name=pubWP-448.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se cuantifica la movilidad social observando la medida en la que los antecedentes familiares determinan el éxito socioeconómico. En términos generales, la movilidad social se puede medir por medio de dos tipos distintos de correlaciones: intergeneracionales y entre hermanos. Number 4163 1999-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-395&pub_file_name=pubWP-395.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria Momi Dahan

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32682019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se presenta el análisis de cuatro casos específicos de surgimiento de cuatro actividades de exportación exitosas de Uruguay: software de computación, productos madereros, caviar y carne de esturión, y vacunas para animales. En cada uno de esos casos específicos se trata cómo empresas, asociaciones y varios gobiernos a varios niveles han manejado crisis de mercado y facilitado el suministro de los bienes públicos necesarios para cada actividad. El análisis de estos casos específicos presenta además una descripción de las características de los actores principales en cada ramo de actividad así como las externalidades positivas que brindan a los emuladores, especialmente la difusión de conocimientos sobre exportación. También se presenta en cada área un caso opuesto de actividad menos exitosa (electrónica, vino, carne de rana y biotecnología, respectivamente) así como una sección sobre implicaciones de políticas. Agriculture, Exports, Manufacturing, Services, Uruguay Number 3268 2009-02 H41 L26 L65 L84 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-556&pub_file_name=pubR-556.pdf application/pdf Michele Snoeck Lucia Pittaluga Hector Pastori Rosario Domingo Carlos Casacuberta

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analizan los problemas relacionados con un enfoque más amplio basado en la calidad de vida, en vez de un enfoque basado únicamente en el ingreso, para la evaluación o distribución de la beneficencia pública. Se muestra la manera en que un enfoque de calidad de vida puede ayudar a evaluar los efectos sobre la beneficencia de factores que van desde la salud, la educación y el desempleo hasta disposiciones institucionales tales como la desigualdad y la oportunidad. No obstante, inferir implicaciones de políticas directamente resulta problemático, porque las normas y expectativas inciden en la manera en que los individuos responden a las encuestas y la definición de felicidad o satisfacción no está del todo clara. Esto último permite establecer comparaciones en cuanto a investigación entre individuos y culturas, pero tiene sus inconvenientes en tanto que base para el diseño de políticas. Number 4622 2008-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-652&pub_file_name=pubWP-652.pdf application/pdf Carol Graham

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42182019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La oleada de reformas estructurales en América Latina y otras regiones ha estimulado la publicación de un copioso cuerpo de obras teóricas sobre la economía política de la reforma, es decir, el estudio de las limitantes políticas que condicionan la oportunidad, la rapidez y el secuenciamiento de las reformas. En este trabajo se ponen a prueba algunas de las hipótesis vinculadas con esos modelos teóricos, empleándose un conjunto de indicadores de reforma estructural de aproximadamente 20 países latinoamericanos durante el período 1985-95. Aunque algunas de esas hipótesis cuentan con un apoyo considerable, no se puede explicar las reformas recientes en América Latina sin mejores teorías o bien mejores datos. Number 4218 2000-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-424&pub_file_name=pubWP-424.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30792019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper identifies three periods in Argentine exchange rate policy, corresponding with different development strategies and political coalitions. The first, periodic adjustments in a pegged rate until the mid-1970s, accompanied an Import Substitution Industrialization approach and a redistribution of income from agrarian to industrial production during an era of strong labor union influence. A second period, from the mid-1970s, marked by accelerated devaluations, represented efforts by both military and civilian governments to meet the demands of their respective constituencies while maintaining capital flows from abroad; these efforts culminated in hyperinflation. A third period, beginning in the early 1990s, was notable for exchange rate stability, based on the Convertibility Plan, as a broad consensus emerged that the exchange rate should be used for containing inflation rather than engaging in redistribution among domestic interest groups. The authors conclude that additional innovations in Argentina’s monetary and exchange rate policies may eventually be necessary. Number 3079 1999-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-379&pub_file_name=pubR-379.pdf application/pdf Eugenio Diaz Bonilla Hector E. Schamis

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Ports are a crucial element in any Free Trade Agreement because of their role in moving goods. Unfortunately, the port situation in Central America was not considered during Free Trade Agreement negotiations with the United States (CAFTA). Although CAFTA is intended to provide benefits for exporters and importers, these benefits will not be fully realized due to the region’s high port costs. These high costs, along with concerns regarding infrastructure, security, efficiency, and productivity, can diminish CAFTA’s potential benefits. Central America must therefore enact legal reforms to privatize port operations, as the private sector possesses the resources necessary to invest in those ports and make them competitive. Number 4528 2007-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-610&pub_file_name=pubWP-610.pdf application/pdf José Antonio Reyes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study attempts to quantify female teenage sexual activity, pregnancy, and motherhood in Bolivia using the most recent Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive results suggest that teenage sexual activity, pregnancy, and childbearing are more prevalent among those adolescents who are more likely to be socially vulnerable and excluded. In addition, the high incidence of undesired pregnancies among Bolivian teen girls suggests that government action to prevent teenage pregnancy is needed. Lastly, the estimation results indicate that not only socioeconomic and demographic factors, but also some of the expected outcomes of teenage motherhood, regional fertility factors, and knowledge about and use of family planning methods, are significantly related to the probability of teenage pregnancy/childbearing. Number 4538 2008-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-615&pub_file_name=pubWP-615.pdf application/pdf Mariana Alfonso

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper investigates the effects of short-run economic shocks on children`s progress through school in urban Brazil using a unique panel data set. The severe problem of grade repetition in Brazil contributes to overall low education levels. Of children ages 10-15 who are enrolled in school, only 69 percent advance on average to the next grade. This paper investigates whether children`s effort on schoolwork is diminished when parents experience a transitory shock to income. Number 4124 1998-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-376&pub_file_name=pubWP-376.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45892019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper provides empirical evidence for the importance of institutions in determining the outcome of crises on long-term growth. Once unobserved country-specific effects and other sources of endogeneity are accounted for, political institutions affect growth through their interaction with crises. The results suggest that only countries with strong democracies, high levels of political competition and external constraints on government can potentially benefit from crises and use them as opportunities to enhance long-term output per capita and productivity growth. Number 4589 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-643&pub_file_name=pubWP-643.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Alberto Cavallo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses datasets from six surveys to describe entrepreneurship in Argentina. While the quantity of entrepreneurship in Argentina is high, its quality is low, given the high proportion of informal and necessity entrepreneurs. Income is found to play a greater role in determining probability of becoming an entrepreneur than parental wealth; entrepreneurship is, however, transmitted inter- generationally. Although it is found that Argentina promotes entrepreneurial values more than most Latin American countries, entrepreneurs face several obstacles. Finally, using panel data based on household surveys, the paper estimates the short and long-run effects of an increase in public employment on entrepreneurship, finding the effects to be negative and strong. Overall, the evidence suggests that changes in public policies and other areas are needed for Argentina to become an entrepreneurial economy. Number 4798 2012-07 L26 L5 O17 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37022781 application/pdf Jose Anchorena Lucas Ronconi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Existe la idea corriente de que la baja productividad o un nivel bajo de crecimiento se deben a lo que cabría describir de `insuficiencia de innovación`, que usualmente se identifica como un nivel de inversión en investigación y desarrollo inferior al de algunos países altamente innovadores. La reacción usual a esta situación, que se percibe como un problema, es proponer una mayor inversión en investigación y desarrollo, por lo general, especificando una meta que puede llegar a ser de hasta tres por ciento del PIB. El problema de este análisis es que no toma en cuenta que un nivel bajo de inversión en investigación y desarrollo puede ser apropiado según el patrón de especialización de una economía dada, o puede simplemente ser una manifestación de problemas más generales que entorpezcan la acumulación de toda clase de capital. ¿Cuándo sufre un país las insuficiencias de innovación más allá de las que cabría esperar según sus patrones de especialización y acumulación? Ésta es la cuestión que se analiza en este trabajo. En primer lugar, se muestra una manera sencilla de calcular la brecha de investigación y desarrollo que cabe atribuir al patrón de especialización de un país, y se presenta el caso de Chile como ejemplo pertinente. El análisis demuestra que si bien la especialización de Chile en sectores con un uso intensivo de recursos naturales explica en parte la brecha en investigación y desarrollo, sigue habiendo una insuficiencia considerable. En segundo lugar, se muestra cómo se puede emplear un modelo calibrado para determinar la brecha de investigación y desarrollo que cabría esperar según la inversión de un país en capital físico y humano. Si la brecha real en investigación y desarrollo es mayor que la brecha anticipada, el país sufre de un verdadero déficit de innovación. Number 4430 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-543&pub_file_name=pubWP-543.pdf application/pdf William Maloney Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo calculamos los efectos iniciales de la Unión Monetaria Europea (UME) en el comercio internacional. Empleamos un conjunto de datos de panel que incluye la información más actualizada sobre el comercio internacional de 22 países desarrollados, desde 1992 hasta 2002. Durante ese período, 12 países europeos se incorporaron formalmente a una unión monetaria. Se trata de un acontecimiento único que nos permite estudiar los efectos de la unión monetaria entre un grupo relativamente homogéneo de países industrializados. Hallamos, controlando una serie de otros factores, que el efecto de la UME sobre el comercio bilateral entre países miembros varía entre 5% y 10%, comparado con el comercio entre todos los demás pares de países, y entre 9% y 20%, comparado con el comercio entre países que no pertenecen a la UME. Además, no hallamos pruebas de desviación del comercio. En cualquier caso, nuestros resultados sugieren que la unión monetaria hace aumentar el comercio no sólo con los países de la UME, sino también con el resto del mundo. Number 4340 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-490&pub_file_name=pubWP-490.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Micco Ernesto H. Stein Guillermo Luis Ordoñez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio de la economía política del proceso presupuestal presenta el caso de Colombia. El documento brinda una descripción de los actores principales involucrados en el proceso presupuestario y de sus interacciones. Describe los principales determinantes políticos y económicos del desempeño fiscal y considera el impacto de los arreglos políticos e institucionales que gobiernan el funcionamiento del proceso presupuestario en sus diferentes etapas. Number 2003 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-104&pub_file_name=pubCSI-104_esp.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Cardenas Carolina Mejía Mauricio Olivera

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El propósito del presente trabajo es identificar y estudiar los principales determinantes de los spreads en las tasas de interés bancarias en el Uruguay. Después de una detallada caracterización del sistema financiero uruguayo se presentarán dos mediciones distintas para los spreads bancarios: primero, medidos como diferencias entre tasas activas y pasivas tomadas de las pizarras de los bancos y, segundo, deducidos de los balances de los bancos. A continuación se explicitarán los hechos estilizados más importantes respecto de los spreads bancarios. En seguida se presentarán algunos resultados econométricos primarios para intentar de captar los principales factores explicativos de los spreads. Finalmente se resumen los resultados más importantes y se formulan algunas conclusiones. Number 3067 1999-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-369&pub_file_name=pubR-369.pdf application/pdf Adolfo Díaz Solsona Carlo Graziani

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en inglés) El propósito de este trabajo es ofrecer elementos de juicio empíricos sobre el vínculo entre la asistencia extranjera y la desigualdad del ingreso durante el período de 1973-2002. Dado que las regresiones de muestras de países no se pueden considerar resultados de series temporales `verdaderas`, también nos concentramos en técnicas dinámicas de datos de panel, que permiten dar cuenta de posibles problemas de simultaneidad y heterogeneidad. No hallamos elementos de juicio muy robustos de que la asistencia extranjera sea conducente al mejoramiento de la distribución del ingreso, incluso cuando se toma en cuenta la calidad de las instituciones. Este hallazgo se corresponde con investigaciones empíricas recientes sobre la asistencia y el crecimiento que muestran que dicha relación es débil en el mejor de los casos. Number 4438 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-547&pub_file_name=pubWP-547.pdf application/pdf Ma. Cecilia Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses micro data from a collection of household surveys conducted in 17 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean to examine the time allocation decisions of adolescents. We find that an econometric model with household and country-level variables, when applied simultaneously to all the countries in the sample, is able to predict quite well the choices among school, work, both or neither in most of the countries. Moreover, the household variables alone, especially parental education, go a long way towards predicting the rates of school attendance, which means that the stage of development, as measured by per capita GDP for example, impacts human capital accumulation mainly through the households’characteristics. Number 3163 2002-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-470&pub_file_name=pubR-470.pdf application/pdf Naercio Menezes-Filho Reynaldo Fernandez Paulo Picchetti Ricardo Paes de Barros Carlos Henrique Corseuil Miguel Fogel Daniel Santos Simone Wajnman Maria Carolina Leme

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Peruvian society has achieved significant improvements in terms of lower fertility and mortality over the last forty years, which has brought down population growth rates to less than 1. 2% a year. These improvements have led, on average, to a demographic transition with lower dependency ratios. In general, this transition increases the ability of the society to take proper care of its non-working population groups, children and the elderly, which may be reflected in changes in household structure. We identify stylized facts about the implications of these changes at the micro level through the use of pseudo-panels from household-level data for Peru. We calculate age, cohort and year effects for variables related to household structure, educational attainment, labor force participation and savings. We find some evidence that suggests differences, by educational level, in the Peruvian demographic transition. Household size is smaller for the younger cohorts in all households but those with less educated heads. We argue that these different profiles are explained by the fact that reductions in fertility have not reached the less educated. On the one hand, these differences in household size patterns are similar to those in the number of children. On the other hand, cohort patterns in family living arrangements—i. e. , households with extended families—are similar across educational groups. However, family living arrangements change throughout the life cycle, in the sense that extended families are more common for households with very young (under 25) and elderly (over 60) heads. These changes in family arrangements over the life cycle add confusion to the meaning of headship, since in some cases the household reports as its head the older member and in other cases the main income earner. We also find that younger cohorts are more educated, are larger than older ones, and show lower returns to education. This is consistent with an increase in relative supply of educated workers that outpaces the increase in relative demand induced by economic growth, under the assumption of imperfect substitutability between equally educated workers of different cohorts. Finally, we show that intergenerational family arrangements over the life cycle limit the ability of the life cycle hypothesis (LCH) to explain household savings behavior. We find evidence that Peruvian households, especially the less educated, smooth consumption over the life cycle, not only through the typical saving-dissaving mechanism, but also by smoothing income. Net cash transfers, or living arrangements between parents and their offspring, play an important role in this income smoothing. Number 3122 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-425&pub_file_name=pubR-425.pdf application/pdf Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví Martin Valdivia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper provides some evidence that repeat taking of competitive exams may reduce the impact of background disadvantages on educational outcomes. Using administra- tive data on the university entrance exam in Turkey, the paper estimates cumulative learning between the first and the nth attempt while controlling for selection into re- taking in terms of observed and unobserved characteristics. Large learning gains mea- sured in terms of improvements in the exam scores are found, especially among less advantaged students. Number IDB-WP-483 2014-01 C13 C38 I23 I24 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38577943 application/pdf Kala Krishna Sergey Lychagin Cemile Yavas Veronica Frisancho vfrisancho@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Se utiliza un panel desbalanceado de medio centenar de países para el período 1985-2003 con el objeto de evaluar la vulnerabilidad del gasto público social (en educación y salud) frente a las variables fiscales corrientes y la deuda pública en América Latina en comparación con el resto del mundo en desarrollo. El gasto social es significativamente más bajo en América Latina (aunque absorbe una proporción mayor del gasto primario) y es más vulnerable frente a mayores pagos de intereses de la deuda, pero más insensible a las variaciones del resto del gasto público. Como en otras regiones del mundo en desarrollo, el gasto social en América Latina se contrae con los aumentos de deuda pública, y aún más si se trata de deudas con la banca multilateral. A diferencia del resto del mundo, en América Latina los incumplimientos de deuda llevan a reducir la participación del gasto social en el gasto público. Number 4506 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-597&pub_file_name=pubWP-597_esp.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Proponemos que los bancos extranjeros pueden representar un elemento de compensación cuando sus receptores son países en desarrollo. Se formula un modelo de cartera para mostrar que es posible que un banco internacional más diversificado puede ofrecer un menor nivel de riesgo general y menos susceptibilidad a sacudidas de fondos, pero que puede reaccionar en mayor medida a las sacudidas que afectan a los rendimientos anticipados en un país receptor dado. Los bancos extranjeros han adquirido un papel especialmente importante en América Latina, donde hallamos un fuerte apoyo a estas predicciones teóricas empleando un conjunto de datos de bancos individuales en 11 países latinoamericanos. Además, no hallamos diferencia significativa alguna entre el tamaño de la respuesta de bancos extranjeros a una sacudida de liquidez negativa y a una sacudida de oportunidad positiva: en ambos casos aumenta la participación de mercado de los bancos extranjeros en las operaciones de crédito. Number 4404 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-529&pub_file_name=pubWP-529.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco Andrew Powell

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a conceptual framework for explaining credit union (CU) loan delinquency and profitability in developing countries. It also offers an empirical estimation for a unique sample of Latin American CUs. Number 4086 1997-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-355&pub_file_name=pubWP-355.pdf application/pdf Glenn Westley Sherrill Shaffer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Poverty reduction remains one of the main challenges for Latin America at the end of the 20th century. Most of the countries in the region are classified as middle income by international standards, and yet they register poverty rates well above what would be expected given their GDP per capita. The reason for this "excess poverty" lies in the high inequality in the distribution of resources. Number 3075 1999-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-376&pub_file_name=pubR-376.pdf application/pdf Orazio P. Attanasio Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the causes, effects and policy alternatives associated with the recent international food price crisis in the Andean region. Additionally, the document makes a first approach to the policy options utilized to confront the crisis, discussing the mix of policies and their potential effectiveness, using a qualitative methodology based in part on schemes proposed in Manzano and Stein (2008), and Malarín (2008). A final section underscores various messages common to the countries of the region. Specifically, the report concludes that this crisis offers a great opportunity for transforming its uncertainties and costs into a stimulus for maturing an infrastructure of prevention and reduction of vulnerabilities in the Andean economies. Food crisis, Distributive impact, Simulation, Compensatory policies, Andean region Number 4623 2009-04 O20 O18 I30 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-674&pub_file_name=pubWP-674.pdf application/pdf Jose Cuesta josecue@iadb.org Fidel Jaramillo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the recent performance of Latin American labor markets. We find that unemployment rates are on the rise in most countries and sub-regions of Latin America. The rise in unemployment over the 1990s is not driven by a higher proportion of women, adults or urban workers in the labor force, nor can it be attributed to an increasing demand for skilled workers. In a few countries, increasing unemployment is caused by falling employment rates. In the rest, unemployment rates can be explained by a large rise in participation that has not been fully absorbed by increases in employment. We also find that a large and in many countries growing proportion of workers are employed at jobs that pay very low wages. Finally, returns to higher education are increasing while returns to secondary education are declining in almost all countries. Number 4331 2003-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-486&pub_file_name=pubWP-486.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Olga Lucia Jaramillo Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32222019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This analysis characterizes the salient features of the policymaking process (PMP) in Chile. It emphasizes the influence of political institutions on the PMP and examines the linkage between policymaking and policy outcomes in Chile. The salient features of the Chilean PMP are the electoral system and the associated party system, characterized by two long-lived coalitions, a powerful Executive, with de facto control over the agenda, a relatively independent judiciary, a bureaucracy that is relatively free from corruption even by the standards of the OECD, and a series of veto points in the policymaking process that permit adversely affected actors to block policy change. Consistent with the theoretical framework of Spiller and Tommasi (2003), the small number of actors who interact repeatedly and the predictability of policy implementation and of law enforcement lead to a policymaking process in which transaction costs are low and inter-temporal political exchanges are credible. The veto players help to give inter-temporal exchanges their credibility, but they can also block reforms. Looking at policy areas in cross section, we find that policy areas in which policymakers` interests are more nearly aligned, and in which there is more rapid exogenous change, are associated with more successful efforts at reform, while in areas in which the interests of the Executive and the various veto players diverge, policy tends to stagnate. Number 3222 2006-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-521&pub_file_name=pubR-521.pdf application/pdf Joaquín Vial Cristobal Aninat John Landregan Patricio Navia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper contributes to an agenda that views the effects of policies and institutional reforms as dependent on the structure of political incentives for national and subnational political actors. The paper studies political incentive structures at the subnational level and the mechanisms whereby they affect national-level politics and policymaking at the national level in Argentina, a highly decentralized middle-income democracy, Argentina. The Argentine political system makes subnational political power structures very influential in national politics. Moreover, most Argentine provinces are local bastions of power dominated by entrenched elites, characterized by scarce political competition, weak division of powers, and clientelistic political linkages. Political dominance in the provinces and political importance at the national level reinforce each other, dragging the Argentine political and policymaking system towards the practices and features of its most politically backward regions. Number 4781 2012-06 D72 D73 D78 H11 H70 H77 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36917419 application/pdf Martin Ardanaz Marcelo Leiras Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Desde mediados de los ochenta, cuando la economía se encontraba sumida en la crisis de la deuda, el ahorro y la inversión en Chile aumentaron dramáticamente. El ahorro lo ha hecho aún más que la inversión, revirtiendo el fuerte uso de recursos externos para financiar los niveles desmedrados de inversión de la primera mitad de la década pasada. Estas características del proceso de ahorro e inversión contrastan con lo acaecido en otros países de la región, donde la tasa de inversión se ha mantenido estancada y la tasa de ahorro nacional ha caído (Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, 1996). Algunos de estos países -particularmente Argentina y México- iniciaron hace varios años programas de estabilización y cambio estructural orientados a darle al mercado una mayor importancia en la asignación de recursos con el objetivo de dinamizar la inversión y la tasa de crecimiento. Muchas de estas políticas habían sido puestas en práctica en Chile a partir de mediados de los setenta. Además, tanto Chile como otros países de la región han recibido cuantiosos flujos de capital durante los años noventa, relajando significativamente la restricción externa a la inversión (Calvo, Leiderman y Reinhardt, 1993; Ffrench-Davis y Griffith-Jones, 1995). Sin embargo, sólo en Chile se ha dado un aumento importante en las tasas de ahorro e inversión. Number 3008 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-309&pub_file_name=pubR-309.pdf application/pdf Manuel R. Agosin Gustavo Crespi Leonardo Letelier

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan las repercusiones de las elecciones en las políticas fiscales de 21 países latinoamericanos y caribeños entre 1983 y 1996. El superávit presupuestario resulta más bajo que lo normal en los años preelectorales y más alto en los años siguientes a las elecciones. Tanto el gasto como los ingresos contribuyen a esta característica cíclica. Number 4085 1997-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-354&pub_file_name=pubWP-354.pdf application/pdf Moritz Kraemer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Chile led the Latin American pack in launching its far-reaching privatization program, but the question of whether the process has made firms more profitable remains. Also unclear is whether society as a whole is better off because of privatization. This paper looks at the performance of several industries to gauge the effects of privatization on Chilean firms and social welfare. The authors’ research, which is both broad and deep, yields some surprising findings. For example, contrary to commonly-held perceptions of bloated state-run bureaucracies, the authors find that the employment ranks of regulated entities actually swelled after their ownership switched to private hands. The paper evaluates a wide range of aspects of the privatization process, from highway tolls to private pension fund returns to school vouchers, and concludes with some concrete recommendations for future improvements. Number 3150 2003-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-456&pub_file_name=pubR-456.pdf application/pdf Rodrigo Gutierrez Pablo Serra Ronald Fischer

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper focuses on the question of whether the magnitude of long-established environmentally related taxes (ERT) is related to countries environmental performance. While environmental taxes efficiencies have previously been discussed, those taxes contribution to reducing pollution and improving environmental quality has not been fully explored. This paper therefore analyzes the effectiveness of environmental taxes by examining the environmental performance of 50 countries from all regions in association with the amount of revenues from environmentally related taxes each country collects. Using a cross-section regression and a panel dynamic regression, the paper finds that countries with higher revenues from these types of taxes also exhibit higher reductions in CO2 emission, PM10 emissions, and energy consumption and production from fossil sources. Number IDB-WP-467 2013-11 H23 Q53 Q58 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38311333 application/pdf Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org Mauricio Vela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analizan las diferencias de sexo en tres mercados laborales profesionales de Chile: comercio, derecho y medicina. Los resultados demuestran que las diferencias de salario atribuibles al sexo sólo están presentes en la práctica del derecho. En el comercio y la economía, un vector de la condición actual de la familia elimina el efecto del sexo, mientras que en la medicina, si se toma en cuenta la cantidad de horas trabajadas, el tamaño de la empresa y la región, también se eliminan las diferencias de sexo. Se demuestra además que el locus de control percibido por los individuos (interno o externo) es pertinente para explicar la distribución de los ingresos. Number 3249 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-545&pub_file_name=pubR-545.pdf application/pdf David Bravo Claudia Sanhueza Sergio Urzua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper computes several indicators of water coverage, quality, and prices in Ecuador’s two largest cities: Quito and Guayaquil—both before and after the privatization of water services in Guayaquil. The type of data sources that are used make it possible to specifically control for income and, thus, to evaluate changes in water provision, particularly among the poor. These indicators provide useful information about how certain water-related services have changed over time and facilitate evaluating the performance of each company. It should be emphasized, however, that such estimates cannot be used to identify the causal effects of the privatization of water provision. In particular, differences in a) before-concession water-coverage trends, c) rural-to-urban migration patterns, and c) other idiosyncratic institutional characteristics between these two cities, suggest that Quito may not be a suitable control group for identifying the casual effects of privatization. Number 3236 2007-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-538&pub_file_name=pubR-538.pdf application/pdf Paul Carrillo Orazio Bellettini Elizabeth Coombs

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46412019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines how the main characteristics of Argentina’s policymaking process (PMP) affect the productivity of its economy using the conceptual framework presented in Murillo, Scartascini and Tommasi (2008), Stein et al. (2008), Spiller and Tommasi (2007), and IDB (2005). First, the paper complements existing descriptions of the PMP by considering private agents and elaborating on structural characteristics possibly conducive to policymaking instability. Second, the paper illustrates the (negative) impact of Argentina’s lowquality and myopic PMP equilibrium on productivity by examining two key areas: provision of infrastructure services and agricultural policy. Finally, the paper explores the PMP at the local level of government (municipalities and local communities), finding that it mimics the flaws observed at the federal level. Political economy, Productivity, Argentina Number 4641 2009-10 P16 O43 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-102&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-102.pdf application/pdf Santiago Urbiztondo Marcela Cristini Cynthia Moskovitz Sebastian Saiegh

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a test to discriminate among behaviors of producers of exhaustible resources. The behavior of a competitive producer of an exhaustible resource should follow an Euler equation. The existence of futures markets allows us to sidestep the difficult issues related to estimating future prices and demand. This theoretical framework is used to test the hypothesis of collusive OPEC behavior between 1983 and 1991. Number 4016 1995-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-312&pub_file_name=pubWP-312.pdf application/pdf Antonio Spilimbergo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30682019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper develops a simple dynamic general equilibrium model of an agricultural economy, in which poor farmers borrow wheat from rich farmers to invest in their land. Since wheat output is stochastic (we allow for both idiosynchratic and aggregate shocks) there may be default ex-post. The main thrust of the paper is to compare equilibria in this economy with and without political intervention. This intervention is decided through majority voting and can take the form of a bailout or a moratorium. The results of our formal analysis are confronted with historial evidence from the Panic of 1819 in the U. S. With no aggregate uncertainty, the main results of the formal analysis are that allowing for debt moratoria and bailouts not only always improves ex-post efficiency but may improve ex-ante efficiency. Anticipated bailouts always occur in equilibrium and moratoria never occur, but the threat of moratoria enhances efficiency. With aggregate uncertainty, the differences between moratoria and bailouts may collapse, with both occurring only in bad times and improving ex-ante efficiency. Number 3068 1999-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-370&pub_file_name=pubR-370.pdf application/pdf Patrick Bolton Howard Rosenthal

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Los críticos de la privatización sostienen que una reestructuración insuficiente de la fuerza laboral es una inquietud clave y que los gobiernos deberían crear mejores programas de reducción. Ponemos a prueba, empleando datos nuevos de una muestra aleatoria de 400 compañías de todo el mundo, las teorías en pugna acerca del acierto de los programas de reducción y sus repercusiones sobre los precios que pagan los compradores y las políticas de reenganche de los propietarios privados a continuación de una privatización. Nuestros resultados demuestran que los programas de reducción que llevan a cabo los gobiernos antes de una privatización están plagados de problemas de selección adversa. Al controlar la naturaleza endógena, varias políticas de reducción laboral tienen efectos negativos sobre los precios netos de la privatización. A modo de confirmación del argumento a favor de la selección adversa, varios tipos de redimensionamiento voluntario conducen a una mayor frecuencia de reenganche de los mismos trabajadores por parte de los nuevos dueños de la empresa privatizada. Los programas obligatorios basados en la capacitación son el único tipo de programas que guardan algún tipo de relación con precios más elevados y niveles más bajos de reenganche tras la privatización, pero los costos políticos y económicos de esta política pueden hacerla poco práctica. Lo más adecuado con respecto a la reducción laboral antes de una privatización parece ser una decisión moderada de no intervenir. Number 4330 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-485&pub_file_name=pubWP-485.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presentan la teoría y los elementos de prueba de los factores determinantes del tamaño del sector informal. Proponemos un modelo teórico simple en el que el tamaño del sector informal guarda una relación negativa con la calidad de las instituciones y una relación positiva con la desigualdad del ingreso. A continuación se validan empíricamente esas predicciones empleando diversas variables representativas del tamaño del sector informal, la desigualdad del ingreso y la calidad de las instituciones. Se muestra que los resultados son valederos con respecto a una variedad de especificaciones econométricas. Number 4378 2004-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-516&pub_file_name=pubWP-516.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46332019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper describes private actors’ involvement in Colombia’s policymaking process. While more transparent and formal channels are used to discuss horizontal policies, they are also less effective. The adoption of targeted policies, however, follows a faster track and depends more on political power than on those policies’ potential as engines for productivity growth. Data targeted policies and political characteristics across sector-region units are used to further characterize the different groups’ weight in policymaking, and the effect of the implied unbalance on aggregate productivity. Electoral weight and being represented by business groups and associations are found to be important determinants of the policy benefits received by a sector in a region, especially when activities are located in regions affected by armed conflict. It is also found that the resulting imbalance of policies damages aggregate productivity. Productivity, political economy, interest groups, targeted policies Number 4633 2009-09 O43 O25 P16 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-101&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-101.pdf application/pdf Marcela Eslava Marcela Melendez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Following the 1994 financial crisis, the rate of saving of the Mexican economy fell from 21. 7 percent to 19. 8 percent of GDP. The decline was associated with a reduction in the rate of external saving from 6. 9 to 0. 5 percent between 1994 and 1995. The overall reduction was not more dramatic because it was almost fully compensated by an increase in private saving from 11. 3 percent to 15 percent of GDP during these years. Number 4152 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-390&pub_file_name=pubWP-390.pdf application/pdf Orazio P. Attanasio Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The general perception of unions in the Guatemalan business community has been that they have a negative effect on firms. Although this is a strong statement, there are very few studies of unionization in Guatemala, and most of them are only descriptive. This paper provides an econometric analysis of the impact of unions on productivity in Guatemala, specifically on the production of coffee. Although union density is low, we conclude from the empirical analysis that there is evidence that unions when present have a negative effect on the productivity of large coffee plantations. We use different estimations of a production function and the effect of unions on productivity. The first uses a union dummy and other independent variables, such as a capital proxy, the proportion of administrative and permanent workers, land per worker, total workers, farm elevation above sea level and a union dummy. The second uses these same equations, but with interaction terms between the original variables and the union dummy. The results show that these other variables, when significant, had a positive effect on productivity. The only is total workers, which could be indicating that diseconomies of scale are present. As for the interaction terms, when a union is present, the productivity of variables such as land per worker and height is reduced significantly. Also, it seems that capital has a larger effect on unionized farms productivity than on non-unionized farms. The presence of permanent workers on farms, both in unionized and non-unionized settings, has a negative effect on productivity. Number 3166 2003-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-473&pub_file_name=pubR-473.pdf application/pdf Sigfrido Lee Carmen Urizar H.

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44022019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analiza la relación entre la protección a los acreedores y la inestabilidad del crédito. Durante la etapa negativa del ciclo económico, el crédito se contrae más en los países que cuentan con menos dispositivos de protección a los acreedores. A condiciones similares de sacudidas a negocios, el crédito es más inestable en países donde los acreedores cuentan con una protección de facto débil. Ponemos a prueba esta idea empleando un conjunto de datos sobre factores jurídicos determinantes de las finanzas, en un panel de datos sobre el crecimiento agregado del crédito de una muestra de 139 países durante el período 1990-2003. Hallamos apoyo al punto de vista de que una mejor protección jurídica reduce considerablemente los efectos de las sacudidas externas sobre el crédito. Los resultados son tanto estadística como económicamente significativos y valederos ante mediciones alternativas de protección a los acreedores, la inclusión de variables referidas a diversas etapas de desarrollo económico y el hecho de que nuestra muestra se ha limitado únicamente a países en desarrollo. Number 4402 2005-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-528&pub_file_name=pubWP-528.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo emplea la encuesta Latinobarómetro para analizar las percepciones de los latinoamericanos sobre el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), el Banco Mundial y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). Se analiza la manera en que las nociones de la gente sobre estas organizaciones multilaterales y sus juicios sobre las mismas se ven influenciados por las características demográficas y socioeconómicas de los encuestados, el país donde viven, la posición financiera del BID en ese país, las condiciones macroeconómicas y la orientación política de los encuestados, así como las actitudes hacia la democracia y el libre mercado. Los resultados indican que hay noticias tanto buenas como malas para el BID. Por el lado negativo, el BID es la menos conocida de las tres organizaciones internacionales, pero por el lado positivo, es la que tiene el mejor nivel entre los que están familiarizados con ellas. (Disponible en inglés) Number 4550 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-621&pub_file_name=pubWP-621.pdf application/pdf Marina Bassi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46682019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There is an increasing need for a system of international lending of last resort (ILLR) to provide a safety net in the event of financial crises in vulnerable countries as financial globalization deepens and spreads. Multilateral progress to address liquidity and solvency crises has been patchy and inconsistent, with no clear distinction between the two; in particular, there is still no framework to address sovereign debt restructuring. This paper proposes an integrated system of specialized ILLR facilities to address problems of liquidity, adjustment, and debt restructuring in a focused but robust way as crises evolve and morph, structured in tiers to cater to countries’ capacity to prequalify for automatic support. It further proposes feasible legal reform to subject creditors to standstills and seniority dilution as in domestic bankruptcy in order to empower ILLR to facilitate orderly workouts in debt restructuring. Multilateral development banks would play important supporting roles. Safety nets, lender of last resort, liquidity crisis, solvency crisis, sovereign debt restructuring Number 4668 2010-06 F34 F53 F55 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-192&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-192.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernandez-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This survey of industrial policies in Latin American and the Caribbean makes two basic claims, namely: 1) that the late 1980s and the entire decade of the 1990s represented a transition from the industrial policies of the import substitution model to industrial policies suitable for open national economies in a more integrated world economy; and 2) that this transition period has not concluded and, consequently, it is premature to pass judgment on the effectiveness of the stillemerging set of policies. Number 4281 2001-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-459&pub_file_name=pubWP-459.pdf application/pdf Alberto Melo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41852019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La enseñanza es un factor sumamente importante del desarrollo económico. Hay un gran cúmulo de obras empíricas publicadas sobre los factores que determinan el logro en la enseñanza. La mayor parte de esa obra publicada, sin embargo, emplea datos micro para analizar los vínculos entre el logro en la enseñanza y el historial y las experiencias de la familia, los mercados, las escuelas y otras características de la comunidad local. Esos estudios por lo general no han vinculado el logro en la enseñanza estrechamente con los cambios en las condiciones económicas en su conjunto. En este trabajo se emplea un nuevo conjunto de datos de alta calidad de 18 países latinoamericanos y del Caribe para evaluar los efectos de las condiciones macroeconómicas en el logro en la enseñanza. Se emplean datos de encuestas de hogares para elaborar un casi-panel con información sobre el logro de cohortes de nacimiento de nacidos entre 1930 y 1970, que se combinan con datos agregados de países específicos. Los datos se emplean para comprobar el avance de la escolaridad en América Latina y calcular las relaciones de múltiples variables del logro de la enseñanza por cohorte de nacimiento en relación con conjuntos de variables de estabilidad macroeconómica, dotación de factores, desarrollos demográficos, instituciones, cultura y religión. Estas estimaciones se emplean para descomponer la variación del avance de la enseñanza por décadas y analizar las causas de la desaceleración de la acumulación de escolaridad en la región desde la crisis de la deuda de los años 80. Number 4185 1999-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-407&pub_file_name=pubWP-407.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Jere R. Behrman Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Las causas de la "explosión de desempleo" y de la escasa creación de empleos ocurridas en la Argentina hasta 1995 y sus perspectivas futuras son los dos hilos conductores de este documento. Aquí se presenta una interpretación que se profundiza para el caso de la Argentina. Number 4143 1998-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-385&pub_file_name=pubWP-385.pdf application/pdf Juan Llach Lucas Llach

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Recent empirical and theoretical literature on the impact of real exchange rate devaluations on economic performance questions the traditional expansionary effect generated within standard Mundell-Fleming models. Contractionary devaluations may arise when firms face maturity or currency mismatches that, when faced with real exchange rate depreciations, lead to balance-sheet effects that erode firms` wealth and lead to an output contraction. While some authors show that the standard Mundell-Fleming result may hold even in the presence of currency mismatches, others point out that, if the balance sheet effect is large enough, devaluations can be contractionary. Using a large panel of 57 countries across the world and various newly constructed measures of dollarization, we test whether the balance sheet effect hypothesis has been relevant during the past decades in explaining economic downturns. Additionally, we explore the channels through which devaluations can be contractionary; in particular, we explore whether investment and consumption decisions are negatively affected by exchange rate devaluations under currency mismatches. Number 4486 2006-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-582&pub_file_name=pubWP-582.pdf application/pdf Ricardo N. Bebczuk Ugo Panizza Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Documento disponible en idioma inglés) En este trabajo se repasa la obra publicada sobre la deuda soberana, con interés especial en la indexación y el vencimiento, y las principales propuestas de políticas relacionadas con estos temas. También se proponen algunas implicaciones derivadas de este trabajo. En Alfaro y Kanczuk (2005a, b, c), se define la deuda soberana como un reclamo contingente según el marco de referencia desarrollado por Grossman y Van Huyck (1988). Sin embargo, en el marco de referencia empleado se reconoce que la deuda contingente puede guardar relación con problemas de incentivos. Al aplicar este marco de referencia al estudio de la sustentabilidad de la deuda soberana, la compensación entre deuda nominal y deuda indexada y el vencimiento óptimo de la deuda, se halló que algunas de las propuestas presentadas en la obra publicada en cuanto al alargamiento de los vencimientos de deuda y la emisión de deuda nominal son insostenibles en economías emergentes (inestables). Number 4460 2006-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-560&pub_file_name=pubWP-560.pdf application/pdf Laura Alfaro Fabio Kanczuk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper looks into the political economy forces that helped shape exchange rate policy in Colombia since the early 1960s. As witnessed by the remarkable longevity of the managed crawl, Colombian exchange rate policies since 1967 did not take the form of major regime changes. Policy shifts came about through variations in the rate of crawl, varying degrees of administrative restrictions on capital flows and, on occasions, ad-hoc measures to generate multiple exchange rates. Number 3064 1999-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-366&pub_file_name=pubR-366.pdf application/pdf Juan C. Jaramillo Roberto Steiner Natalia Salazar

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The aim of this paper is to provide comprehensive empirical evidence on recent theories that link democracy and income inequality for the period 1960-1995. In simple cross-country regressions I find a non-monotonic link between these two variables when using ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Eusufzai tests. Since these results cannot be taken as "true" time series findings, even though recent theories that explain such a link are, I also employ recent methods applied to dynamic models on panel data. These techniques allow accounting for potential simultaneity and heterogeneity problems. Using the preferred econometric methodology, I also find support for the existence of a political Kuznets curve. Moreover, it appears that income inequality is unconditionally persistent. Results hold for two different democracy proxies and when sensitivity analysis is applied. Number 4253 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-445&pub_file_name=pubWP-445.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio describe cómo las probabilidades de matriculación de minorías cambian ante modificaciones enpolíticas de admisión (de acción afirmativa a sólo mérito y a planes de porcentajes) cuando la composición demográfica de los potencialesestudiantes tambiénestá cambiando. El estudio utiliza cambios en políticas de admisión que ocurrieron en Texas con las decisiones de Hopwood y HB588 y una base de datos administrativos que incluye postulantes yestudiantes admitidos y matriculados en tres universidades públicas de distinto nivel de selectividad. Los resultados sugieren que la eliminación de acción afirmativa y la introducción del programa Top 10% tuvo efectos diferenciales, que dependen del nivel de selectividad de la universidad, en las probabilidades de matriculación y de postulaciónde minorías. Específicamente, Hopwood se relaciona con movimientos de minorías desde universidades selectivas hacia menos selectivascomo lo anticipa la hipótesis de cascada. A pesar de que el programa Top 10% aparentemente ayudó a que la probabilidad de matriculación de minorías aumente en la universidad selectiva como lo predice la hipótesis de mejora, una vez que tenemos en cuenta losaumentos en la participación de minorías entre los graduados de secundaria encontramos que el programa Top 10% ya no puede ser relacionado a mejoras en la representación de minorías en universidades selectivas. (Disponible en Inglés) Number 4543 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-617&pub_file_name=pubWP-617.pdf application/pdf Mariana Alfonso Juan Carlos Calcagno

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Approximately 14 percent of births are unregistered in Latin America according to estimates by UNICEF (2001). Children who lack an official birth certificate can be denied access to social services, including enrolling in school and accessing health services. This paper examines the under-registration of births in six Latin American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Peru, and Nicaragua) using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Under-registration of children younger than 5 is found to range from 8. 4 percent in Peru to 25. 8 percent in the Dominican Republic. Striking regional differences are found in all six countries. Number 4443 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-551&pub_file_name=pubWP-551.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Analía Olgiati Leslie Stone

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper develops a framework for analyzing different policymaking styles, their causes and their consequences in Latin America, finding that lower institutionalization and greater use of alternative political technologies (APTs) are more likely the lower the cost of using these technologies, the higher the potential damage they can cause, the lower the wealth of the economy, and the more asymmetric the distribution of de jure political power. Moreover, strategic complementarity exists in the use of alternative political technologies; for instance "bribes by the rich" and "protests by the poor" are likely to be countervailing forces, and will both occur in polities with weaker political institutions. Political institutions, Public policies, Institutional strength, Protests, Alternative Political Technologies, Development, Judicial independence, Party institutionalization, Congress capabilities, Cabinet stability, Corruption Number 4644 2009-11 D72 D74 D78 H89 K42 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-108&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-108.pdf application/pdf Carlos Scartascini Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45642019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El modelo de este trabajo hace pensar que un líder autoritario, a pesar de disfrutar de una escasa supervisión por parte del poder legislativo, puede gozar de respaldo popular. El argumento es que ese respaldo se induce con la intención de que los pobres contrarresten la subversión de la protección oficial de los derechos de propiedad de que gozan los ricos y para lograrlo a menudo están dispuestos a pagar el precio de aceptar la malversación de ingresos tributarios por parte del líder para fines privados. En este trabajo, que analiza las actitudes individuales hacia un liderazgo autoritario, se descubre que el apoyo a un liderazgo fuerte guarda una relación inversa al ingreso individual y a la desigualdad de ingresos en todo el país. Number 4564 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-628&pub_file_name=pubWP-628.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper proposes a methodology to resolve the problems that result from using a combination of objective and subjective information in evaluating urban quality of life. The paper further suggests techniques to identify and rank issues of potential importance for urban dwellers. In order to combine objective and subjective information in a coherent manner and focus on the most relevant dimensions of the quality of life in a city or neighborhood, the paper attempts to exploit the complementary nature of two approaches: the “hedonic” approach, which employs market prices for housing, and the “life satisfaction” approach, which addresses subjective well-being. Results using both approaches in selected Latin American cities are discussed and compared. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential uses of the two-pronged methodology for policy analysis. Number 4729 2011-11 D19 H41 H42 I31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36520045 application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44822019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint To what extent do imposed institutions shape preferences? We consider this issue by comparing the market-versus-state attitudes of respondents from a capitalist country, Finland, and an ex-communist group of Baltic countries, and by arguing that the period of communist rule can be viewed as an experiment in institutional imposition. We find that, consistent with some earlier related work, citizens from ex-communist countries tend to be more supportive of state ownership than respondents from capitalist economies. However, they also favor increasing inequality and competition as the means to enhance incentives. We conclude that, in some important relevant dimensions, institutional imposition (which lasted for about 50 years) had a limited effect on preferences. The lessons for Latin America are straightforward. Number 4482 2006-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-579&pub_file_name=pubWP-579.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Mark Gradstein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Hay un abundante cúmulo de elementos de juicio empíricos que vinculan a las instituciones que funcionan bien y la buena gestión gubernamental con mejores resultados económicos y sociales. Determinar qué combinación de factores produce mejores instituciones es por ende un desafío importante. En este sentido, este trabajo tiene un objetivo doble. En primer lugar, se analizan de un modo crítico los resultados de la obra publicada sobre esta materia y se trata de evaluar su nivel de validez y se analiza una metodología alterna. En segundo lugar, se emplea una base de datos más amplia que incluye todos los aspectos analizados anteriormente de otra manera, para llegar a resultados empíricos sistemáticos. Después de tratar los mecanismos de comprobación tradicionales del grado de validez, por ejemplo, en la obra publicada empírica sobre el crecimiento, que parece ser de una utilidad limitada, se introduce el análisis de factores como un paso preliminar hacia una especificación del modelo y subsiguientemente se realiza un análisis de múltiples regresiones. De los cuatro niveles de explicación que identificamos, es decir, variables de control e históricas, la naturaleza del juego político, el tamaño y la naturaleza de las rentas existentes a ser distribuidas y la naturaleza y calidad de los incentivos burocráticos, este último parece ser el más claramente vinculado con la calidad institucional. No obstante, los resultados no son del todo valederos cuando se tratan problemas de endogeneidad. También se estudian varios tipos de interacciones y efectos no lineales, sin arribarse a nuevas percepciones claras. Se concluye abordando la fragilidad de los datos existentes, en particular con respecto a la estructura de los incentivos, y la necesidad de una mejor comprensión teórica de los mecanismos subyacentes. Number 4216 2000-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-423&pub_file_name=pubWP-423.pdf application/pdf Stéphane Straub

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The value of equity market transactions in emerging economies soared from about 2 percent of the world total in 1986 to 12 percent in 1996. This boom was accompanied by an explosion of international capital flows, especially flows into developing country stock markets. Moreover, while equity flows were a negligible part of capital flows to emerging markets a decade ago, equity flows now represent about 20 percent of private capital flows to developing nations. Number 4106 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-365&pub_file_name=pubWP-365.pdf application/pdf Ross Levine

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The so-called "European model" of market integration has evolved over many decades. In particular, the original plan to integrate Europe economically via a progressive program of harmonizing national legislation has, particularly in the area of financial markets, given way to a radical alternative based upon Member State "mutual recognition" of existing national legislation and regulation. Whereas this shift had been initiated largely on pragmatic grounds, the mutual recognition approach has since taken on an ideological and strategic dimension in political negotiations which makes the study of its effects on the ground all the more important. Number 4100 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-362&pub_file_name=pubWP-362.pdf application/pdf Benn Steil

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41882019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The use of income distribution indicators in the economics literature has increased considerably in recent years. This work relies on household surveys from 18 LAC countries to take a step back from the use of these indicators, and explore what`s behind the numbers, and what information they convey. We find: a) that the way countries rank according to inequality measured in a conventional way is to a large extent an illusion created by differences in characteristics of the data and on the particular ways in which the data is treated; b) Our ideas about the effect of inequality on economic growth are also driven by quality and coverage differences in household surveys and by the way in which the data is treated; c) Standard household surveys in LAC are unable to capture the incomes of the richest sectors of society; so, the inequality we are able to measure is most likely a gross underestimation. Our main conclusion is that there is an important story behind each number. This story influences our judgement about how unequal countries are and about the relation between inequality and other development indicators, but it is seldom told or known. Perhaps other statistics commonly used in economics also have their own interesting story, and it might be worth trying to find out what it is. Number 4188 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-409&pub_file_name=pubWP-409.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Marianne Hilgert

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper studies the link between television and divorce in Brazil by exploiting variation in the timing of availability of the signal of Rede Globo—the network that had a virtual monopoly on telenovelas in the country—across municipal areas. Using three rounds of Census data (1970, 1980 and 1991) and controlling for area fixed effects and for time-varying characteristics, the paper finds that the share of women who are separated or divorced increases significantly after the Globo signal becomes available. The effect is robust to controlling for potential determinants of Globo’s entry strategy and is stronger for relatively smaller areas, where the signal reaches a higher fraction of the population. Divorce, Television, Brazil, Soap Operas, Media, Women, Empowerment Number 4611 2009-01 O1 J12 N36 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-651&pub_file_name=pubWP-651.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Eliana La Ferrara

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the link between what people say they prefer to do and what they actually do. Using data from an experimental project exploring trust and pro-sociality for representative samples of individuals in six Latin American capital cities, the paper links the results of these experiments with the responses obtained from representative surveys to the same participating individuals. Individuals with higher agreement with a set of pro-social statements are those more willing to contribute and collaborate to the social welfare in the community, and what people say is linked to what people do. This supports the idea that the inclusion of subjective controls in the lefthand- side in an empirical specification does carry useful information. Number 4575 2008-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-634&pub_file_name=pubWP-634.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Juan Camilo Cardenas

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43532019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In recent years, Latin American banking sectors have experienced an accelerated process of concentration and foreign penetration that has prompted diverse views regarding its implications for the competitive behavior of banks and for the financial stability of the system as a whole. Exploiting a rich bank-level balance sheet database for eight Latin American countries, we examine the evolution of concentration and foreign penetration indicators and their impact on competition and risk. We find that, while concentration did not reduce competition in the industry, foreign penetration appears to have led to less competitive banking sectors. Moreover, we find banking sector fragility to be positively related to competition and, through this channel, negatively related to foreign participation, despite the fact that foreign banks in the region are associated with higher insolvency risk due to higher leverage ratios and more volatile returns. Number 4353 2003-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-499&pub_file_name=pubWP-499.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Levy Yeyati Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper we draw a profile of the victims of crime in Latin America. We show that- at least for the case of property crime - the typical victims of crime in Latin America come from rich and middle class households and tend to live in larger cities. We also show that households living in cities experiencing rapid population growth are more likely to be victimized than households living in cities with stable populations. We offer various explanations to these facts, and while we cannot yet provide definite answers to some of the questions raised by this paper, we are at least able to reject some plausible hypotheses. On the whole, our results imply that urban crime in Latin America is, to an important extent, a reflection of the inability of many cities in the region to keep up with the increasing demands for public safety brought about by a hasty and disorderly urbanization process. Number 4186 1999-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-408&pub_file_name=pubWP-408.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (PDF disponible en Español en WP-536) Este artículo compara las condiciones de crecimiento económico de China y de América Latina con el fin de evaluar los temores de que la economía china desplace a la latinoamericana en las próximas décadas. Las fortalezas de China se basan en el tamaño de su economía, su estabilidad macroeconómica, la abundante mano de obra barata, la rápida expansión de la infraestructura física y la capacidad para innovar. Las debilidades de China tienen su origen en la poca separación que existe entre el mercado y el Estado e incluyen la débil gobernabilidad corporativa, un sistema financiero frágil y una mala asignación del ahorro. América Latina y China comparten debilidades importantes: el imperio de la ley es débil, la corrupción endémica y la educación es baja y está mal distribuida. Aunque los temores de desplazamiento de los sectores industriales y de la inversión extranjera son exagerados, China puede ser una fuente de inestabilidad financiera internacional con efectos potencialmente muy dañinos para América Latina. Number 4410 2005-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-531&pub_file_name=pubWP-531.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44402019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible enidioma Inglés) En este trabajo se analiza la conexión entre el contexto político e institucional y los precios de venta de las privatizaciones. Éstos se pueden considerar una medida para evaluar el desempeño relativo de las metas de las privatizaciones. Aunque dicha conexión se ha estudiado teóricamente, hay muy pocos trabajos empíricos sobre esa relación, si acaso. Se descubre, empleando datos de 308 procesos de privatización en todo el mundo y aplicando un enfoque de varios países (incluidas las variables instrumentales), que aunque el régimen político general no reviste una importancia especial para los precios, los procesos políticos más allá del régimen de base sí importan. El contexto institucional también tiene un efecto considerable en los precios. Ambos resultados son valederos ante cambios de especificaciones. Number 4440 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-549&pub_file_name=pubWP-549.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Alejandro Riaño

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Given current evidence of potential tangible benefits, in terms of public expenditure sustainability, efficiency and effectiveness, from more efficient utilization of budgeting for results, how can we explain the uneven development of this process in Latin America and the Caribbean? This paper analyzes the conditions that favor its implementation (institutional conditions, motivation, capacities, and legal support), and provides policy recommendations aimed at increasing the likelihood that countries will eventually introduce budgeting for results and in its total utilization once these systems are in course. Number 4787 2012-06 H11 H50 H60 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36955048 application/pdf Gabriel Filc Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper discusses Brazil’s structural reforms since the 1990s and areas where work remains to be done. Reforms of the 1990s included the containment of inflation, the adoption of a comprehensive Fiscal Responsibility Law, a successful debt restructuring program for subnational governments, the reduction of trade barriers, a wave of privatizations, and the expansion of health and education programs. Reforms of the 2000s included strengthening welfare programs, rapidly increasing the minimum wage, and reforming the financial sector to increase access to credit among lower income groups. Political opposition and other factors, however, have prevented reforms in the tax and pension systems and in the labor market. Brazil’s recent strong economic performance owes more to generally sound macroeconomic management, and to a favorable external environment, than to a comprehensive and sustained structural reform effort. Doubts remain about the country’s ability to sustain high growth rates while keeping inflation low. Number 4774 2012-05 E02 E61 E65 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36903972 application/pdf Teresa Ter-Minassian

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The existence of populist regimes led by outsiders is not new in history. In this paper a simple framework is presented that shows how and why a populist outsider can be elected to office, and under what conditions he is more likely to be elected. The results show that countries with a higher income and wealth concentration are more likely to elect populist outsiders than countries where income and wealth are more equally distributed. It is also shown that elections with a runoff are less likely to bring these populist outsiders into office. Number 4716 2011-05 D72 D31 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36191963 application/pdf Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30252019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The general objective of this study is to provide an evaluation of how the institutions linked to Mexico`s potable water sector interact with the legislative, regulatory, and economic process of the sector. In particular, the study examines how prior or current institutional changes in the potable water sector impact public and private investment, incentives, efficient water use, externalities, and administrative capacities in the sector. Given the institutional structure of Mexico`s water utilities, the study formulates and tests a series of hypothesis relating to the institutional changes which have occurred in the sector and to the regulation, organization, and efficiency of the sector. The study seeks to provide policy recommendations aimed at improving the services provided by this sector. Number 3025 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-326&pub_file_name=pubR-326.pdf application/pdf Jr. Ozuna Irma Adriana Gomez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The purpose of this study is to identify the main relationship between economic development and geography at the province level in Bolivia. To achieve this, we study simultaneously the relationship between an index of basic needs insatisfaction (NBI), as a measure of human capital, and GDP per capita with geographical, demographical, institutional and structural economic variables. The estimation of GDP per capita for 112 provinces was carried out by estimating total wages based on employment surveys data and on GDP data available at the department level. The main findings of this study are: a) Geographical variables matter in the explanation of NBI, labor income and GDP per capita disparities among provinces, especially altitude, erosion, urbanization rate and the distance toward the main cities of the central axis of the country (La Paz, Cochabamba, Santa Cruz). The main channels for this are the effects of geographical variables on land and labor productivity. The location of mine resources also explains provincial disparities, and transportation costs matter concerning economic activity of the private sector. The effects of geography on labor productivity are widely influenced by people`s choice of province to live in, and this choice is strongly correlated with their education level. Bolivia is one of the poorest countries in Latin America; its development problems are complex and difficult to solve. As far as those developed in this research are concerned, we find that appropriate policies for promoting human development, migration and increasing land productivity can help to attain higher development levels and reduce provincial disparities. Number 3087 2000-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-387&pub_file_name=pubR-387.pdf application/pdf Rolando Morales Erwing Galopo Luis Carlos Jemio Carmen María Choque Natacha Morales

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This chapter revisits the sudden stop in capital flows episode experienced by Chile in 1998. It documents the macroeconomic environment, the macro framework in place, and the shocks that hit it. The chapter examines the policy reaction to the shocks, evaluating its most likely consequences and analyzing key policy constraints faced at the time. Finally, it describes how the economy adjusted and compares the Chilean episode with a few other recent sudden stop cases. Sudden Stop, Chile, Capital Flows, Adjustment Number 2016 2008-11 E58 E63 F32 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-150&pub_file_name=pubCSI-150.pdf application/pdf Rodrigo O. Valdes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La literatura sobre la efectividad de la ayuda extranjera se ha enfocado más en las políticas del país que recibe la ayuda que en los determinantes de su distribución. Sin embargo, un resultado consistente es que los aliados políticos obtienen más ayuda de los países donantes que los no aliados. Este articulo muestra que la ayuda entregada a aliados políticos no favorece el crecimiento, mientras que la ayuda que reciben países no aliados es muy efectiva. Este resultado es robusto utilizando varias especificaciones y técnicas de estimación. En particular, se utilizan nuevos métodos para controlar por endogenidad. Se sugiere que la distribución de la ayuda extranjera sea revisada con cuidado de tal forma que esta sea lo más efectiva posible. Number 4512 2007-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-601&pub_file_name=pubWP-601.pdf application/pdf Matteo Bobba Andrew Powell

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study contends that in Mexico there is a threshold above which drug-trafficking-related violence causes a general slowdown in the economy. Before that threshold is reached, firms and individuals pay for the increase in violence via protective security costs, a decision that is reflected in the job market. Once violent conflict has escalated to a substantial degree, economic agents’ medium- and long-term decision making is negatively affected, revealing a significant contraction in the economy. Using two different empirical strategies, this study proposes electricity consumption as an indicator of local economic activity. To estimate the marginal effects of violence on the economy, an instrumental variables regression is utilized; this regression uses as exogenous variation a tool developed by Mejía and Castillo (2012), which is based on record seizures of Colombian cocaine. To estimate the “threshold” effects of drug violence on the economy, a synthetic control method is used which consists of constructing counterfactual scenarios as an optimal weighted average of control units. It is found that an increase in the levels of violence has significant, negative effects on labor force participation and employment. It is also found that cities that experienced a dramatic spike in violence between 2006 and 2010 sharply curtailed their energy consumption in the years following the spike. Number IDB-WP-426 2013-11 C90 D81 J21 K42 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id= application/pdf Gabriela Calderon Gustavo Robles Beatriz Magaloni

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Money is used as a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account. Most recent analyses of currency choice in an international setting have focused on the denomination of reserves—the store of value role. However, public data are only aggregate and exclude several countries. This paper focuses on currency choice for the unit of account role, employing a detailed database on security issuance across countries, time and currencies. The paper finds a stable relation between currency choice and specific real and financial variables with different specifications for developed and developing countries, as well as evidence for persistence and network externalities. Exploiting the creation of the Euro, the paper finds a large and significant Euro liquidity effect at the cost of the dollar, especially in the early years of the life of the new currency. The estimates suggest that the Euro is making significant progress toward threatening the role of the dollar as the dominant international currency. Number 4530 2007-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-611&pub_file_name=pubWP-611.pdf application/pdf Matteo Bobba Andrew Powell Giuseppe Della Corte

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Are mortality and life expectancy differences by socioeconomic groups increasing in the United States? Using a unique data set matching high-quality administrative records with survey data, this study explores trends in these differentials by lifetime earnings for the 1983 to 2003 period. The results indicate a consistent increase in mortality differentials across sex and age groups. The study also finds a substantial increase in life expectancy differentials: the top-to-bottom quintile premium increased around 30 percent for men and almost doubled for women. These results complement recent research to point to almost five decades of increasing differential mortality in the United States. Differential mortality, Life expectancy, Lifetime earnings, Trends Number 4607 2009-01 I12 J11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-665&pub_file_name=pubWP-665.pdf application/pdf Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La volatilidad del resultado fiscal como consecuencia de las fluctuaciones de las variables macroeconómicas de origen interno y externo, limita la utilidad de los indicadores tradicionales para evaluar la situación fiscal de mediano y largo plazo. Este problema es particularmente relevante para países que, como Uruguay, encaran planes de estabilización utilizando el tipo de cambio como ancla nominal, puesto que la experiencia ha mostrado que dichos planes generan o amplifican muchas de las fluctuaciones de las variables macroeconómicas, las cuales se trasladan a la situación fiscal. El éxito de estos planes de estabilización requiere un adecuado manejo del ancla nominal, así como un buen monitoreo de la situación fiscal subyacente. Con esta finalidad se desarrolla una metodología que tiene por objetivo la estimación del resultado fiscal ajustado por las fluctuaciones de corto plazo de las variables macroeconómicas. Number 3019 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-320&pub_file_name=pubR-320.pdf application/pdf Michale Borchardt Isabel Rial Adolfo Sarmiento

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40912019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar los cambios en la pobreza y la desigualdad que se produjeron en América Latina y el Caribe desde 1970 hasta 1995, con especial interés en los años 90. La característica más distintiva del estudio es que, en vez de concentrarse en las experiencias de países individuales, tal como ha hecho la mayor parte de la obra publicada sobre el tema, producimos indicadores agregados para toda la región. Number 4091 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-357&pub_file_name=pubWP-357.pdf application/pdf Juan Luis Londoño Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44162019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Empleando datos históricos institucionales objetivos, ponemos a prueba el vínculo existente entre el alcance, la duración y la transparencia en las democracias y las conductas de procura de rentas, empleando enfoques de series temporales y datos de panel. En este trabajo nos concentramos en el caso de Uruguay, un país étnicamente homogéneo. Obtuvimos tres resultados principales. En primer lugar, los regímenes democráticos guardan una vinculación negativa con las acciones de procura de rentas. En segundo lugar, mientras más tiempo haya durado una democracia, menos conductas de procura de rentas exhibirá la sociedad. En tercer lugar, la legislación promulgada con mayor transparencia guarda una correlación negativa con conductas de procura de rentas. Nuestros resultados son valederos con el uso de diversos métodos econométricos y con las pruebas de validez básica, y se corresponden con las teorías imperantes. Number 4416 2005-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-534&pub_file_name=pubWP-534.pdf application/pdf César Calderón Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In contrast to the limited impact of aggregate-level productive development policies (PDPs) in Argentina, micro-level PDPs in several sectors have proven highly successful. This study seeks to understand how these PDPs succeeded in a challenging environment, what kinds of mechanisms were generated to ensure adaptation and learning, and how these PDPs evolved. Of importance is not only policy design and implementation, but also the policymaking. Following a historical overview of PDP in Argentina, the paper presents three case studies: i) the Argentine Technology Fund (FONTAR), a horizontal PDP; ii) the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA), a vertical PDP; and iii) the application of both horizontal and vertical PDPs to the biotechnology sector. Lessons learned and conclusions are presented in a final section. Productive Development Policies, Industrial Policy, Policymaking, Argentina Number 4700 2011-01 O25 O43 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-193&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-193.pdf application/pdf Ines Butler Ricardo Rozemberg Gabriel Sanchez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The main purpose of this paper is to provide a simple analytical framework that can guide the development of indicators of fiscal policy sustainability in economies which operate in a highly volatile macroeconomic environment. Number 3070 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-372&pub_file_name=pubR-372.pdf application/pdf Ernesto Talvi Carlos A. Végh

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The paper argues that Emerging Market economies (EMs) face financial vulnerabilities that weaken the effectiveness of a domestic Lender of Last Resort (LOLR). As a result, monetary policy is inextricably linked to the state of the credit market. In particular, the central bank should be ready to operate as LOLR during Sudden Stop (of capital inflows) by releasing international reserves in an effective manner. These conditions also impact on optimal monetary policy in normal but high-volatility periods. The paper further argues that during those periods interest rate rules may engender excessive volatility of exchange rates and, thus, that it may be advisable to temporarily supplement those rules by foreign exchange market intervention or outright exchange rate pegging. At a fundamental level, the analysis suggests that the state-of-the-art literature summarized by Woodford (2003) or even more heterodox approaches exemplified by Stiglitz and Greenwald (2003) are likely fall short of providing a satisfactory guide for monetary policy in EMs. Number 4504 2006-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-596&pub_file_name=pubWP-596.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues that institutionalization is an equilibrium phenomenon and is associated with better policies and better results in terms of economic development. In support of this argument is presented a theoretical model that extends the space of feasible actions for political actors, including the possibility of investing in both institutionalized and non-institutionalized arenas. Thus, to visualize the process of institutionalization can be endogenous to the functioning of political institutions. In addition to this conceptual model, quantitative results are presented which show that low levels of institutionalization tend to weaken the results arising from the literature of more traditional political economy. That is, low institutionalization in the context of traditional political institutions, particularly those jure measures may not be relevant in explaining policy outcomes. Still, this work opens up more questions than it answers and leaves lines of research proposals that can help provide answers to them. Number 4763 2012-01 D72 D73 D78 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36643394 application/pdf Carlos Scartascini carlossc@iadb.org Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45662019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint En este trabajo se analizan modelos alternativos de clasificación soberana emergente. Aunque un número pequeño de indicadores económicos fundamentales explica las clasificaciones de manera razonablemente precisa, las variaciones de esos indicadores económicos fundamentales se pueden explicar, en sí mismas, por un puñado de factores mundiales. Por otro lado, hay que tomar en cuenta además las variables financieras mundiales relacionadas con la aversión al riesgo para poder explicar la considerable reducción de los diferenciales a finales de 2006. La prueba es que las clasificaciones sí importan. Por último, el trabajo descubre que los indicadores mundiales de aversión al riesgo han perdido importancia para los diferenciales de mercados emergentes y que el efecto de los últimos acontecimientos en la situación de préstamos hipotecarios de alto riesgo en EE. UU. es de menor magnitud que el efecto de las “noticias promedio” sobre los diferenciales de canjes de incumplimiento crediticio de las economías emergentes. Number 4566 2008-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-629&pub_file_name=pubWP-629.pdf application/pdf Andrew Powell Juan F. Martinez S.

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper compares growth conditions in China and Latin America to assess fears that China will displace Latin America in the coming decades. China`s strengths include the size of the economy, macroeconomic stability, abundant low-cost labor, the rapid expansion of physical infrastructure, and the ability to innovate. China`s weaknesses, stemming from insufficient separation between market and state, include poor corporate governance, a fragile financial system and misallocation of savings. Both regions share important weaknesses: the rule of law is weak, corruption endemic, and education is poor and very poorly distributed. Number 4409 2005-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-531&pub_file_name=pubWP-531.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio aborda el tema de la descentralización fiscal y las ocasiones por las que ocurre una situación de rescate financiero desde el nivel central del Estado hacia administraciones locales en Chile. No obstante un sistema de administración financiera que da garantías para una alta disciplina fiscal, en el caso de la administración de la educación municipal se han generado situaciones de endeudamiento encubierto reiterado por no pago de cotizaciones previsionales a los docentes en los que el nivel central del Estado ha debido intervenir con medidas de rescate. El estudio combina metodologías cuantitativas que recogen información financiera y de gestión educacional de las municipalidades, lo que permite realizar análisis estadísticos y econométricos, y metodologías cualitativas que indagan en el juicio y evaluación que tienen del proceso las autoridades del nivel central del Estado, representantes de la Asociación Chilena de Municipalidades y las municipalidades afectadas. Number 3142 2002-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-446&pub_file_name=pubR-446.pdf application/pdf Claudia Serrano Heidi Berner

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45192019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using the 1996-2001 Chilean CASEN Panel Survey, this paper analyzes the impact on income of the switch from salaried employment to entrepreneurship (self-employment and leadership of micro-enterprises). By means of a difference-in-differences non-parametric matching estimator the paper alleviates problems of selection bias (on observable and unobservable traits) and creates the appropriate counterfactuals of interest. The results indicate that the income gains associated with the switch from salaried employment to entrepreneurship are positive, statistically significant and financially substantial. Even more, the results are qualitatively the same using mean and medians, suggesting that the impacts are not influenced by the presence of few “superstar winners. ” Additionally, the income changes associated with the reverse switches (from self-employment to salaried jobs) are negative. The results also suggest interesting gender differences, as females show higher gains than males on the switch from salaried jobs to entrepreneurship and lower losses on the reverse switch. Number 4519 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-605&pub_file_name=pubWP-605.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Patricio Valenzuela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente es un informe resumido de una amplia investigación sobre violencia. El mismo fue desarrollado como parte del proyecto de investigación "La violencia en América Latina y el Caribe: Dimensionamiento y políticas de control", dentro del Proyecto Red de Centros Regional de Investigación del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. La investigación fue realizada con muchas limitaciones dada la poca información y los nulos antecedentes de estudio sobre el tema en El Salvador, la escasa colaboración de las autoridades a brindar estadísticas-con notables excepciones-y las barreras propias de un joven equipo de investigación que apenas ha comenzado a estudiar la violencia. Sin embargo, en el amplio esfuerzo de estudiar la violencia se recogió mucha más información de la que es posible presentar en las siguientes páginas, pero era necesaria para comenzar a dimensionar esta problemática tan grave en la vida social salvadoreña. Por ello, este informe es sólo el inicio de un esfuerzo institucional más extenso y del cual se espera contribuir a la resolución de la problemática, sobre todo en la medida en que las condiciones del país lo sigan exigiendo. Number 3036 1998-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-338&pub_file_name=pubR-338.pdf application/pdf Jose Miguel Cruz Luis Armando Gonzalez Luis Ernesto Romano Elvio Sisti

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Uma das razões da ineficiência educacional brasileiro encontra-se na forma de gestão escolar. Desde as eleições diretas para governador em 1982 deslanchou-se no país um processo de difusão de inovações em gestão escolar. Este proceso atingiu velocidade e intensidade distintas nos diversos sistemas estaduais de ensino e baseou-se fundamentalmente em três aspectos: (i) transferência direta de recursos para as escolas, (ii) eleição de diretores, (iii) implantação de colegiados. O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar o impacto destas inovações sobre o desempenho educacional. Comparamos o desempenho dos sistemas estaduais mais inovadores com o daqueles menos inovadores procurando controlar por outras diferenças, como a qualidade do ambiente familiar e a qualidade do corpo docente, que podem, também, ser responsáveis pelas diferenças em desempenho educacional entre tais sistemas. Como medidas de desempenho educacional utilizamos: (i) a taxa de reprovação, obtida com base no Censo Escolar, (ii) a taxa de atendimento e medidas de atraso escolar, obtidas com base na Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD), e (iii) indicadores de rendimiento escolar, obtidos do Sistema Nacional de Acompanhamento da Educação Básica (SAEB). Number 3000 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-301&pub_file_name=pubR-301.pdf application/pdf Rosane Silva de Mendoca Ricardo Paes de Barros

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004, this paper analyzes the characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. A small supply of tradable goods relative to their domestic absorption?a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate?and large foreign-exchange denominated debts towards the domestic banking system are claimed to be key determinants of the probability of 3S, producing a balancesheet effect with non-linear impacts on the probability of 3S. While financial integration is up to a point associated with a higher likelihood of 3S, beyond that point financial integration is associated with a lower likelihood of 3S. Number 4581 2008-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-637&pub_file_name=pubWP-637.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Luis Fernando Mejía

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41462019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The debate on the effectiveness of foreign aid has intensified in recent years as aid has come under increasing budgetary pressures in donor countries. Whatever the merits of the opposing arguments, the fundamental issue arises of whether conventionally-used measures of aid such as ODA, which lump together grants and loans, accurately reflect true aid flows. This paper analyzes the methodological shortcomings of conventional aid measures, and proposes a new valuation approach that measures official aid flows as the sum of grants and the grant equivalents of official loans. This conceptually superior aid measure can diverge significantly from the conventional aggregates and provide a quite different view on major aid trends. Number 4146 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-387&pub_file_name=pubWP-387.pdf application/pdf Charles C. Chang Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Luis Serven

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42392019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper tests the sensitivity of poverty indexes to the choice of adult equivalence scales, assumptions about the existence of economies of scale in consumption, methods for treating missing and zero incomes, and different adjustments to handle income misreporting. We also perform sensitivity analysis to the use of different poverty lines and poverty indexes, which are issues that have been much more explored in the literature. The sensitivity analysis is applied to household survey data from 17 Latin American countries, which include 92% of the population in the region. By varying these parameters within reasonable boundaries, we find that the proportion of poor could be said to be either 12. 7 percent or 65. 8 percent of the total population. Additionally, the ranking of countries with respect to poverty is also highly sensitive. This points to the need of justifying and being explicit about the underlying choices and definitions behind poverty statistics, and to the need of performing sensitivity analysis illustrating the menu of options that can answer the question of how much poverty there is. Number 4239 2000-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-437&pub_file_name=pubWP-437.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Nora Lustig Martin Cumpa José Antonio Mejía-Guerra joseam@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente documento busca desarrollar opciones para reestructurar los sistemas de salud. En particular, intenta examinar las deficiencias de los modelos actuales y ofrecer una alternativa. Nuestro enfoque es sistemático, en cuanto a que analiza cada elemento dentro de un marco coherente, así como sistémico, en el sentido de que considera todo el sistema de salud, otorgando un énfasis particular a las relaciones entre sus principales componentes. Number 4083 1997-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-353&pub_file_name=pubWP-353.pdf application/pdf Juan Luis Londoño Julio Frenk

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Unlike outside investors, controlling groups have the option to trade on inside information and can exercise it at the expense of outside investors. This paper computes informed trading probabilities (ITPs) for the universe of liquid stocks from seven Latin American countries, trading both at home and as ADRs, and applies ITPs in order to address corporate governance questions. Substantial heterogeneity of ITP is found within a given institutional environment. Nonetheless, significant differences in mean ITP are identified across volume ranges, countries, and security types. ITP has an intuitively appealing correlation with some (but not all) of the country-wide investor protection variables used in the literature. Substantial increases in ITP are found just before public corporate announcements, suggesting that privately-informed agents are exploiting their privilege when it is most valuable. ITP is priced in the market: companies with higher ITPs fetch lower Tobin’s qs. It is concluded that Informed Trading Probability proxies for unobservable corporate governance quality as the heterogeneity of firm behavior seems to be recognized by the market and priced accordingly. Number 3206 2005-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-513&pub_file_name=pubR-513.pdf application/pdf Juan Cruces Enrique Kawamura

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The paper explores the incidence of sudden stops in capital flows on the incentives for building national institutions that secure property rights in a world where sovereign defaults are possible equilibrium outcomes. Also thepaper builds upon the benchmark model of sovereign default and direct creditor sanctions by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996). In their model it is in the debtor country’s interest to “tie its hands” and secure the property rights of lenders as much as possible because this enhances the credibility of the country’s romise to repay and prevents default altogether. It incorporate two key features of today’s international financial markets that are absent from the benchmark model: the possibility that lenders can trigger sudden stops in capital movements, and debt contracts in which lenders transfer resources to the country at the start of the period, which have to be repaid later. The papershows that under these conditions the advice “build institutions to secure repayment at all costs” may be very bad advice indeed. Number 4490 2006-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-587&pub_file_name=pubWP-587.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Andrés Velasco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30422019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint "Incierto era ayer el nœmero de victimas que dejaron las incursiones de un grupo de autodefensas en Mapiripán (Meta). Aunque en el casco urbano fueron hallados tres cuerpos sin cabezas y otros dos que no fueron identificados, los pobladores aseguran que cerca de 30 personas fueron sacadas de sus casas, mutiladas y arrojadas a las aguas del río Guaviare. Según los habitantes, el grupo armado comenzó a matar a sus víctimas el martes y terminó el domingo. A las 8 de la noche, obligaba a apagar la planta eléctrica que le suministra la luz a todo el pueblo. "Sacaban a la gente de sus casas y amanecían muertos. Nunca se escucharon tiros, porque los degollaban", dijo un poblador. Esta incursión generó un éxodo de campesinos. El domingo, por avión, salieron de Mapiripán cerca de 200 personas. . . Hasta el juez promiscuo municipal tuvo que salir de la región. El era la única representación de la justicia en dicho municipio, porque de la policía lo único que quedan son las ruinas de una estación llena de maleza, que fue abandonada el 16 de enero de 1995, tras un ataque guerrillero". Este incidente, casi rutinario para la prensa colombiana , presenta varias facetas de la violencia colombiana que se pretenden destacar con este trabajo. Ilustra la incertidumbre acerca de la magnitud de la violencia. Muestra que en el país ya se está perdiendo la capacidad para contar los muertos. Sugiere que una fracción importante y creciente del fenómeno no encaja dentro del diagnóstico tradicional, el de una violencia urbana, ajena a los grupos armados y producto de la intolerancia. Señala un impacto devastador y cada vez más difícil de cuantificar, resaltando que los esfuerzos contra la violencia no se deben sustentar en análisis beneficio-costo. Pone de presente la total ausencia de autoridad estatal en algunas regiones en donde quienes mandan son los grupos armados ilegales. Señala, en particular, la fragilidad de la justicia penal ante la violencia ejercida por los dictadores locales. Resalta las limitaciones de las políticas preventivas basadas en un mayor gasto público, sobretodo mientras el estado colombiano no recupere la autoridad y el monopolio de la coerción. Destaca la prioridad que debe recibir la tarea estatal de administrar justicia y sancionar a los homicidas. Number 3042 1998-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-345&pub_file_name=pubR-345.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Rubio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46912019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses two sources of information and different methodologies to analyze the causal effect of product and process innovation on productivity in the Chilean manufacturing industry during the past decade. In general, the evidence suggests there is not a contemporaneous effect of product innovation on productivity, but there is a positive effect of process innovation. This notsignificant effect of product innovation contrasts with evidence of studies for other countries. However, the results show the presence of lagged effects product innovation on productivity two years after innovation. Compared with the case of developed countries, this evidence might be consistent with a very slow process of “learning by doing” on the part of Chilean firms with regard to mastering new technologies. These slow and frequently uncertain gains in productivity could help to explain the low levels of investment in research and development (R&D) activities by Chilean firms. Productivity, Innovation, Investment, Research and development, Chile Number 4691 2010-10 D22 D24 D92 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-190&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-190.pdf application/pdf Roberto Alvarez Claudio Bravo-Ortega Lucas Navarro

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El sistema de salud chileno presenta características únicas. En el país existe un mandato que obliga a los trabajadores activos y pasivos a cotizar un 7% de su ingreso para adscribirse junto a sus dependientes a un sistema de seguro de salud. Esta adscripción obligatoria puede ser al sistema público, el cual se organiza a través de una modalidad solidaria tradicional de seguridad social, o bien al sistema privado, el cual ofrece seguros de salud que obedecen a una lógica de tipo individual. La elección de uno de los sistemas es voluntaria, pero las características de los seguros ofrecidos y su precio de acceso producen una segmentación del mercado de manera tal que las personas de mayores ingresos y menor riesgo se orientan hacia el sector privado de las ISAPRE (Instituciones de Salud Previsional) y aquellos de menores ingresos y mayor riesgo de salud son atendidos en el sistema público. Number 3005 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-306&pub_file_name=pubR-306.pdf application/pdf Ernesto Miranda Ricardo D. Paredes Molina

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42632019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint We provide evidence on the link between infrastructure development and the distribution of income for the period 1960-1995. To do this, we use several proxies such as roads, railways, telecommunications and energy measures. The approach is comprehensive as cross-country and panel methods are applied. In the latter case, we apply GMM dynamic panel methods in order to minimize for endogeneity problems. Both quantity of infrastructure and quality of infrastructure are negatively linked with income inequality. The quantitative link tends to be stronger in developing countries than the qualitative link. These findings hold when using different econometric methods and most infrastructure measures. Number 4263 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-450&pub_file_name=pubWP-450.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org César Calderón

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44722019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Is there any relation between education and democracy? Once we correct for weak instruments and identify education as `weakly exogenous` we find new evidence that education systematically predicts democracy. Our results are robust across model specification, instrumentation strategies, and samples. Number 4472 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-569&pub_file_name=pubWP-569.pdf application/pdf Matteo Bobba Decio Coviello

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45612019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper assesses labor market segmentation across formal and informal salaried jobs and self-employment in three Latin American and three transition countries. It looks separately at the markets for skilled and unskilled labor, inquiring if segmentation is an exclusive feature of the latter. Longitudinal data are used to assess wage differentials and mobility patterns across jobs. To study mobility, the paper compares observed transitions with a new benchmark measure of mobility under the assumption of no segmentation. It finds evidence of a formal wage premium relative to informal salaried jobs in the three Latin American countries, but not in transition economies. It also finds evidence of extensive mobility across these two types of jobs in all countries, particularly from informal salaried to formal jobs. These patterns are suggestive of a preference for formal over informal salaried jobs in all countries. In contrast, there is little mobility between self-employment and formal salaried jobs, suggesting the existence of barriers to this type of mobility or a strong assortative matching according to workers’ individual preferences. Lastly, for both wage differentials and mobility, there is no statistical difference across skill levels, indicating that the markets for skilled and unskilled labor are similarly affected by segmentation. Number 4561 2007-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-627&pub_file_name=pubWP-627.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Marco Stampini

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper investigates the emergence of new successful export activities in Brazil through the analysis of four industry case studies: furniture, swimwear, soybeans and grapes. Extensive secondary data research was done to study industries’ historical development and to understand the elements that affect the discovery of new export-oriented activities and their diffusion in the economy. Detailed analysis was carried out to identify the role of public sector in the discovery and diffusion process, if any. Comparison of the four experiences show different models of diffusion and demonstrate how barriers to discovery, spillovers and institutions responses varied dramatically among the cases. The paper tries to extract some general conclusions concerning the role of pioneer firms, external actors and public sector institutions. Some lessons learned are presented aiming to help policymakers to design positive policy interventions in Latin America countries. Number 3255 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-550&pub_file_name=pubR-550.pdf application/pdf Angela da Rocha Alexandre Darze Beatriz Kury Joana Monteiro

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44752019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The aim of this paper is to provide comprehensive empirical evidence on the relationship between international remittances and income inequality. In simple cross-country regressions we find a non-monotonic link between these two variables when using ordinary least squares, instrumental variables; we also test our hypothesis using dynamic panel data methods. We provide evidence in support of existing theoretical work that accounts for network effects that describe how, in the first stages of migration history, there is an inequality-increasing effect of remittances on income inequality. Then, as the opportunity cost of migrating is lowered due to these effects, remittances sent to those households have a negative impact on inequality. We also show how education and the development of the financial sector can help countries to reach the inequality-decreasing section of the curve more quickly. Our results are robust to several empirical specifications, as well as for a wide variety of inequality measures. Number 4475 2006-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-571&pub_file_name=pubWP-571.pdf application/pdf Gianmarco León Valerie Koechlin

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45862019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este documento estudia la relación entre el índice de riesgo de salida de un presidente de banco central y una medida de credibilidad en la política monetaria. El índice de riesgo de salida previsto se considera como una función de variables legales y políticas. La medida de credibilidad es la probabilidad prevista de un principio de deflación cuando la inflación está en aumento. En una muestra de 22 países latinoamericanos y del G7, se encuentra una relación negativa entre el índice de riesgo de salida y la medida de credibilidad. Los resultados demuestran que la independencia legal después de controlar el índice de riesgo de la salida del presidente no está asociada a aumentos de credibilidad. Number 4586 2008-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-639&pub_file_name=pubWP-639.pdf application/pdf Miguel Rueda

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44452019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper shows that a large fraction of the variability of emerging market bond spreads is explained by the evolution of global factors such as risk appetite (as reflected in the spread of high yield corporate bonds in developed markets), global liquidity (measured by the international interest rates) and contagion (from systemic events like the Russian default). This link has remained relatively stable over the history of the emerging market class, is robust to the inclusion of country-specific factors, and helps provide accurate long-run predictions. Overall, the results highlight the critical role played by exogenous factors in the evolution of the borrowing cost faced by emerging economies. Number 4445 2006-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-552&pub_file_name=pubWP-552.pdf application/pdf Martín González Rozada Eduardo Levy Yeyati

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40782019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper addresses the adequacy of post-reform growth in Latin America in the 1990s on the basis of international comparison and other relevant standards. It analytically explores and empirically tests a number of hypotheses to explain the perceived dissatisfaction with growth performance. Number 4078 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-351&pub_file_name=pubWP-351.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Peter Montiel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47432019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the causal link between early childhood nutrition and cognition, applying instrumental variables to sibling-differences for a sample of pre-school aged Peruvian children. Child-specific shocks in the form of food price changes and household shocks during the critical developmental period of a child are used as instruments. The analysis shows significant and positive returns to early childhood nutritional investments. An increase in the Height-for-Age z-score of one standard deviation—keeping other factors constant—translates into increases in the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) score of 17-21 percent of a standard deviation. The period of analysis includes the recent global food price crisis that also affected Peru between 2006 and 2008. This therefore is also a quantification of the nutritional and subsequent cognitive costs of food prices on the sample, which could be magnified in later years. Number 4743 2011-08 I12 I20 J13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36377067 application/pdf Ingo Outes-Leon Catherine Porter Alan Sanchez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45732019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper focuses on fertility choices in Brazil, a country where soap operas (novelas) portray families that are much smaller than in reality, to study the effects of television on individual behavior. Using Census data for the period 1970-1991, the paper finds that women living in areas covered by the Globo signal have significantly lower fertility. The effect is strongest for women of lower socioeconomic status and for women in the central and late phases of their fertility cycle. Finally, the paper provides evidence that novelas, rather than television in general, affected individual choices. Number 4573 2008-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-633&pub_file_name=pubWP-633.pdf application/pdf Eliana La Ferrara Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Suzanne Duryea

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47552019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper provides a rationale for developing countries to announce future credible commitments to reduce GHG emissions even if these are not to materialize in the short run, and for domestic reasons only. A simple framework is presented in which it is shown that it may be costly for an economy to transition from high to low emissions; and that, if climate policy eventually will be enacted, then it may be better for countries to commit earlier and therefore eliminate the uncertainty for the private sector to invest appropriately in clean technologies. In particular, conditions are shown under which the private investor prefers a pre-announced climate policy, and how this policy affects investment decisions and the deployment of clean technologies. Number 4755 2011-12 D81 H23 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36607021 application/pdf Jorge Fernandez Sebastian Miller smiller@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41212019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se muestra que los factores que inciden en la oferta laboral fueron determinantes claves de los cambios en el empleo, el desempleo y las diferencias de ingreso en América Latina durante los años 90. Las dos fuerzas principales que impulsan la oferta laboral en la región han sido los factores demográficos y la educación. Number 4121 1998-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-374&pub_file_name=pubWP-374.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42982019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) El aumento de la productividad de la mano de obra se entiende como un factor crítico del aumento del crecimiento económico y la reducción de los niveles de pobreza en América Latina. Se sigue señalando a los bajos niveles de preparación como el principal obstáculo de una mayor productividad en la región. Analizamos el alcance de la educación como medio para hacer subir el ingreso del trabajo por encima del nivel de pobreza en América Latina, y hallamos que en muchos países la educación, por sí sola, tiene un potencial positivo pero limitado para aumentar los salarios por encima de un nivel mínimo. En general, las perspectivas son poco alentadoras porque se ha avanzado con mucha lentitud en el aumento de los niveles medios de escolaridad, incluso según los mejores escenarios históricos. También analizamos si la incidencia de los bajos salarios y las precarias condiciones subyacentes en el nivel de escolaridad pueden explicar la aparente insuficiencia educativa. Hallamos que la inversión en educación sigue arrojando resultados importantes, pero que la precariedad de las condiciones subyacentes explica las escasas perspectivas del papel de la educación en el corto plazo. Esto nos lleva a pensar en el tipo de políticas adicionales que se deberían considerar para poder asegurar un mayor nivel de productividad para los trabajadores de la región. Number 4298 2002-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-468&pub_file_name=pubWP-468.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-4442019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint There has been much interest of late regarding the current commodity “super cycle”. However, even sizing the current boom implies knowledge of long-run trends that are notoriously difficult to estimate. This paper uses new techniques to identify breaks in commodity prices and estimate trends and cointegrating relationships and argues that the weight of evidence is against a stable declining commodity terms of trade. The results are used to characterize the current boom and, assuming no new break, how commodity prices would be expected to return to the estimated “equilibrium”. The paper also discusses implications for commodity-dependent developing countries. Number IDB-WP-444 2014-01 C32 C52 Q02 Q33 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=38491805 application/pdf Rodrigo Mariscal Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper estimates the impact of a large-scale contracting-out program in Guatemala, using two waves of living standard measurement surveys which collected data before and after the expansion of the program and exploiting variation in the timing of the program to estimate treatment effects. Results indicate large program impacts on immunization rates for children and prenatal care provider choices. The program increases substantially the role of physician and nurses as prenatal care providers at the expense of traditional midwives. There is no evidence of effects in family planning outcomes. Taken together these results suggest a potential effective role of contracting-out in the provision of health care. Number 4728 2011-11 I12 I18 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36520111 application/pdf Julian Cristia jcristia@iadb.org William Evans Beomsoo Kim

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32282019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper uses provincial-level data for Argentina to test for the causal relationship between electricity distribution and health. It examines the impact of privatization on two output measures: incidence of low birth weight and child mortality rates caused by food poisoning. Privatization improves service coverage which, through the use of refrigerators, may improve nutritional intake. Privatization also results in a reduction in the frequency of interruptions, and thus may reduce the likelihood of food poisoning. Though the evidence indicates that privatization reduced the frequency of low birth weight and child mortality rates caused by food poisoning, the results are not strong enough to inform the policy debate with respect to the benefits of privatization for the welfare of the poor. Number 3228 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-524&pub_file_name=pubR-524.pdf application/pdf Martín Gonzalez-Eiras Martín A. Rossi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:32332019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint La privatización incompleta del sector eléctrico en Perú provee un escenario único para evaluar el impacto de provisión privada de electricidad, en comparación a la provisión pública. Los resultados presentados en este documento pueden resumirse en una mejora significativa de la calidad de la provisión de electricidad cuando la administración de las firmas es privada. Estas mejoras en la calidad y cantidad de electricidad proveída resultan en ganancias de eficiencia en la asignación de tiempo de la fuerza laboral empleada, las que pueden ser directamente relacionadas al uso de electricidad. Los hogares rurales bajo provisión privada de electricidad tuvieron más oportunidades de trabajar en actividades no agrícolas. En consecuencia, el porcentaje de tiempo dedicado a actividades no agrícolas se incrementó, indicando un efecto sustitución y un potencial efecto precio a través de un mayor salario en el sector no agrícola. El efecto sustitución implica una reducción de las horas dedicadas a actividades agrícolas en favor de las no agrícolas, y el efecto precio implica que los hogares recibirán salarios más altos y por lo tanto tenderán a trabajar menos horas en total. Como resultado, el incremento en el tiempo dedicado a actividades no agrícolas estuvo acompañado por una reducción de horas en actividades agrícolas, y en un incremento en las horas de ocio. Number 3233 2007-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-526&pub_file_name=pubR-526.pdf application/pdf Máximo Torero Lorena Alcazar Eduardo Nakasone

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31932019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint After the Peruvian economic crisis of the late 1980s, the 1990s witnessed a significant pro-poor expansion of the country`s health infrastructure that was instrumental in increasing preventive and primary health care expenditures. Using empirical evidence, this paper discusses the effect of this expansion in health infrastructure on child nutrition in Peru, as measured by the height-for-age z-score. Using a pooled sample from the 1992, 1996 and 2000 rounds of the Peruvian DHS, this analysis controls for biases in the allocation of public investments by using a district fixed effects model. The econometric analysis finds a positive albeit small effect of the expansion of the last decade. After desegregating by type of location, however, the effect was found to be significant only in urban areas. Furthermore, the effect is highly nonlinear and has a pro-poor bias. The estimated coefficient for health infrastructure in less endowed districts is 10 times higher than that in the better-endowed districts. The pro-poor bias refers to the fact that the estimated effect is larger for children of less educated mothers. In this sense, this policy seems to have had a pro-poor bias within urban areas, while at the same time excluding the rural population, a traditionally marginalized population group in Peru. These findings support the idea that reducing distance and waiting time barriers may be necessary, but that more explicitly inclusive policies are required to improve the health of the rural poor, especially indigenous groups, so that they can escape this kind of poverty trap. Number 3193 2004-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-498&pub_file_name=pubR-498.pdf application/pdf Martin Valdivia

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo es parte de una serie de estudios realizados en el marco del proyecto: “La efectividad de las redes de protección social: El rol de los sistemas integrados de información social”. Los estudios de caso fueron realizados en el período 2007-08. Se agradecen los comentarios de Ignacio Irarrázaval y Viviane Azevedo. Number 4706 2011-01 H83 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-TN-187&pub_file_name=pubIDB-TN-187_esp.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Fenochietto Carola Pessino

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40582019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper complements previous studies by arguing that the low private savings ratio in Latin America can be associated with the limited confidence of households and businesses in domestic financial institutions. Previous studies have established a relationship between private savings and financial markets either by using a measure of `financial depth` or a measure of `borrowing constraints. ` This paper offers an alternative view by claiming that the private savings rate relates positively to the confidence of the private sector in the strength of the financial system and that the latter concept can be approximated by the ratio of corporate demand for bank liquid assets. Latin American countries have lower private savings rates than other developing and most industrial countries. They also display the highest corporate to household bank deposit ratios among the three groups of countries considered here. Further, the ratio of corporate to household deposit holdings is strongly correlated with other indicators of banking system fragility. Number 4058 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-340&pub_file_name=pubWP-340.pdf application/pdf Liliana Rojas-Suárez Steven R. Weisbrod

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30572019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente estudio se concentra en analizar los principales activos que no poseen o poseen en forma deficiente los pobres en Colombia y que son la causa que explica en buena medida la pobreza. Nos referimos a un conjunto diverso de activos que hemos agrupado en cuatro grandes categorías: capital humano, capital físico y/o financiero, capital público y capital social. Number 3057 1999-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-359&pub_file_name=pubR-359.pdf application/pdf Jóse Leibovich Jairo Núñez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Historically, formal housing development in Colombia has shown limitations in both its dimension and composition due to factors such as location, price, type of dwelling, etc. This supply has met the demands for housing aimed at the medium-high to high average income groups. The homes of low to medium-low income groups have balanced off this market scenario mainly by means of informal construction and renting. However, informal dwelling construction serves, on the one hand, low-income families, excluded both from the market of new homes and that of home rentals, and households which, although not considered poor, take on their own housing management, more as a rejection of the attributes of formal supply than because of their socioeconomic condition. Within this context, home rental represents a form of possession of a dwelling endorsed by families which do not have access to new-home markets, but still do not consider informal construction a viable alternative. This situation has turned, since 1985, into a progressive decrease in the proportion of homeowners, to the point that this form of possession is currently surpassed by all the others. As a result, they two types of possessions have emerged: home rental and a type associated to it, which is that of families which occupy the dwelling under usufruct status. This last group presents the most precarious living conditions and critical poverty. The factors that have determined the predominantly informal nature of house rental supply are related to a low production of Public Housing (VIS in Spanish), limitations in the financial capability of the demand, and a legislative framework that used to boast a strong market regulation which favored the tenant. The interaction of these factors resulted in a lack of motivation towards the development and consolidation of formal residential rental projects. With regard to public policy proposals, there are two groups of initiatives: enhancement of residential rental supply and the introduction of rental subsidies. Number 4812 2012-11 R21 R31 R38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36664054 application/pdf Jorge Enrique Torres Ramirez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo está destinado a examinar las condiciones en las cuales se desenvuelve el crédito hipotecario para la vivienda en Bolivia. Se hace referencia al éxito que tuvo Bolivia en estabilizar su economía después de algunos años de fuerte inflación. En la década del noventa registró tasas de crecimiento bajas acompañadas de un alto déficit en Balanza de Pagos así como en el sector público. El campo monetario se caracterizó por la acelerada monetización, la dolarización, la vigencia de altas tasas de interés activas acompañadas de spreads elevados, el cierre de varios bancos importantes, la paulatina normalización e institucionalización del Banco Central y de la Superintendencia de Bancos y la emisión de los instrumentos legales relativos al funcionamiento del sistema financiero. En un marco macroeconómico relativamente complejo, la expansión del crédito hipotecario se enfrentó ante un sistema financiero poco desarrollado y una demanda moderada asociada básicamente a los bajos ingresos de las familias. El estudio hace hincapié en algunos problemas particulares resultantes de la dolarización de activos y pasivos monetarios. Concluye con recomendaciones de política enfocadas particularmente a la necesidad de adecuar el sistema crediticio a procesos de construcción progresivos, a la necesidad de proporcionar algún subsidio a la demanda en los sectores de bajos ingresos y a la conveniencia de abrir una línea de trabajo orientada a mostrar las ventajas públicas y privadas del mejoramiento de viviendas Number 4356 2003-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-501&pub_file_name=pubWP-501.pdf application/pdf Rolando Morales

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45362019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys evidence on discrimination in Latin America and shows that there is a widespread perception of discrimination, especially against the poor, the uneducated and those who lack connections. The channels through which discrimination occurs may be built on the basis of economic factors. However, while perception surveys may be informative, they are less than ideal at helping pinpoint the extent and mechanisms related. Recent experimental evidence suggests little room for discriminatory practices in the region. This puzzle, where individuals perceive discrimination is in the air, but few act discriminatorily, is consistent with an explanation about stereotyping that vanishes when information flows operate well. Number 4536 2007-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-614&pub_file_name=pubWP-614.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using the Latinobarómetro survey, this paper examines Latin Americans’ perceptions of the IDB, the World Bank and the IMF. The study analyzes how people’s knowledge and evaluation of these multilateral organizations are affected by the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents, the country where they live, the financial position of the IDB in that country, macroeconomic conditions and interviewees’ political orientation and attitudes towards democracy and free markets. The results indicate both good and bad news for the IDB. Negatively, it is the least-known of the three international organizations; but positively, it is the best rated among those familiar with them. Demographic variables and socioeconomic levels are important determinants of who knows these organizations. In terms of grading, the demographic characteristics of the respondent seem to have no impact. Conversely, economic status, macroeconomic conditions (to some extent), and the political orientation of the respondent are significant determinants of people’s evaluation. Number 4549 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-621&pub_file_name=pubWP-621.pdf application/pdf Marina Bassi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El objetivo central de esta investigación es examinar los vínculos existentes entre la tendencia de activos y la condición de pobreza en el caso de la economía chilena. El primer capítulo entrega antecedentes de estudios previos sobre la pobreza en Chile y provee una visión actualizada de las características y evolución de la pobreza en la última década, incluyendo una serie inédita de largo plazo para la variable en el caso de Santiago. El segundo capítulo ofrece un análisis de la relación entre capital humano y la pobreza durante los años 1987 y 1996. Esta se basa en una cuidadosa estimación del activo a nivel de los hogares a partir de la valoración de la dotación disponible en cada individuo en edad de trabajar y corregida por la decisión de participación laboral. También se muestra evidencia sobre transmisión intergeneracional del activo sobre la base del estudio de los logros educativos de las escuelas a las cuales asisten los niños en edad escolar. Number 3056 1999-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-358&pub_file_name=pubR-358.pdf application/pdf Dante Contreras Osvaldo Larrañaga

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan los factores sociales, étnicos y regionales que determinan la desnutrición infantil, así como los efectos del acceso a los servicios médicos en la región Andina, mediante la comparación de las condiciones imperantes en Ecuador, Perú y Bolivia. Estos tres países se caracterizan por una elevada incidencia de desarrollo incompleto y considerables disparidades socioeconómicas, regionales y étnicas. En este análisis se emplean datos de la Encuesta demográfica y de salud de Perú (1992, 1996 y 2000) y de Bolivia (1997), así como datos de un estudio de cuantificación de los niveles de vida de Ecuador (1998). Se adopta una perspectiva internacional comparativa y se analiza a Ecuador con un nivel especial de detalle. Number 3190 2005-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-495&pub_file_name=pubR-495.pdf application/pdf Carlos Larrea Pedro Montalvo Ana María Ricaurte

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41812019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presentan nuevos elementos de juicio sobre las principales regiones del mundo y los países más poblados de cada región, y las relaciones entre las edades promedio de esas poblaciones y tres grupos de resultados económicos: 1) agregados macroeconómicos (ahorro doméstico como proporción del PIB, PIB per cápita, capital por trabajador e ingresos tributarios como porcentaje del PIB); 2) gasto gubernamental en educación y salud, y 3) indicadores sociales (desigualdad, desempleo, índice de homicidios y niveles de avance en la enseñanza). Los resultados sugieren que las variables que se han tomado en cuenta siguen patrones claros relacionados con la edad, que esos patrones difieren de una región a otra y que difieren según regímenes distintos de políticas relacionadas con la apertura del comercio, la profundización de los mercados financieros nacionales y la inestabilidad macroeconómica. Los elementos de juicio se corresponden con la posibilidad de que algunos cambios de la estructura etaria puedan promover condiciones favorables para el desarrollo. Regiones tales como el Este de Asia aparentemente han conseguido aprovechar esta oportunidad demográfica en las últimas décadas. No obstante, en otras regiones, tales como América Latina y el Caribe, que está a punto de experimentar los mayores cambios de la estructura etaria en las próximas décadas, la creación de un entorno económico adecuado para traducir la oportunidad en mejores niveles de vida para su población ha constituido un reto formidable. Number 4181 1999-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-405&pub_file_name=pubWP-405.pdf application/pdf Jere R. Behrman Suzanne Duryea Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presenta un nuevo conjunto de datos sobre sistemas electorales y se bosqueja sus usos potenciales en nuevas investigaciones sobre las conexiones entre los sistemas electorales y los resultados económicos. El conjunto de datos brinda indicadores del grado al que políticos individuales pueden promover sus carreras apelando, por un lado, a grupos de electores de zonas geográficas reducidas o a simpatizantes de su partido por el otro. Number 4290 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-463&pub_file_name=pubWP-463.pdf application/pdf Jessica Seddon Wallack Alejandro Gaviria Ugo Panizza Ernesto H. Stein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este estudio examina la situación laboral en el Perú y encuentra evidencia de una profunda transformación en el mercado de trabajo durante los noventa. En primer lugar, la creación de empleos en el sector privado se aceleró enormemente a partir de 1992. Sin embargo, el fuerte y simultaneo crecimiento en la oferta de trabajo ha incidido en que la tasa de desempleo no bajara sustancialmente durante este periodo. En segundo lugar, aunque las tasas de desempleo de los noventa son mayores que en la segunda mitad de los ochenta, el mercado de trabajo re-emplea trabajadores desplazados con mayor rapidez. En tercer lugar, los salarios de individuos de características similares han tendido a igualarse entre sectores y actividades. También, durante los noventa se ha acelerado la contratación de mujeres y trabajadores jóvenes en el sector formal lo que ha supuesto una caída en las diferencias en la composición de mano de obra entre los sectores tradicionalmente clasificados como informales y el sector formal. En conjunto, el crecimiento del empleo, la mayor capacidad de re-empleo de trabajadores desplazados y la caída en la prima de formalidad sugieren un desempeño más eficiente del mercado de trabajo peruano. Sin embargo, esta transformación no está exenta de dificultades que a su vez, suponen nuevos retos para los responsables de la política laboral, educativa y económica del país. Number 4167 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-397&pub_file_name=pubWP-397.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo hace uso de la Encuesta Mundial de Gallup de 2006, que contiene opiniones sobre satisfacción con diversos aspectos de la vida en 130 países. Aunque la relación entre satisfacción e ingreso que se encuentra es muy sólida (tanto entre países como entre individuos en los países), arrojando dudas sobre la conocida paradoja de Easterlin, surge una nueva paradoja: la del “crecimiento infeliz”, según la cual hay menos satisfacción en los países que crecen más rápido. Las pérdidas de satisfacción asociadas al crecimiento son más pronunciadas en los dominios materiales de la vida de las personas, y tienden a ser más fuertes en sociedades más ricas y más urbanas. A nivel individual, aunque ingresos más altos tienden a reflejarse en mayor satisfacción, el aumento del ingreso del grupo social al que pertenece el individuo produce el efecto contrario en las dimensiones materiales del bienestar. La conflictiva relación entre la satisfacción y el ingreso documentada en este estudio tiene implicaciones de economía política. En particular, sugiere un mecanismo sencillo para explicar diversos rasgos característicos del populismo económico y social. Number 4600 2008-11 D63 E61 I31 O21 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-642&pub_file_name=pubWP-642_esp.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org Juan Camilo Chaparro

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41832019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible unicamente en Inglés) Recientemente se ha reavivado el interés en la relación entre las variaciones en las estructuras etarias de las poblaciones y diversos resultados económicos. Esas variaciones son producto de cambios en las tasas de fertilidad y mortalidad que se producen algunos años antes de hacerse visibles en la estructura etaria estándar y que pueden crear oportunidades para desarrollos subsiguientes. Una gran cantidad de países de todo el mundo todavía están experimentando o quizá están a punto de experimentar un descenso de la tasa de fertilidad. En este trabajo primero se definen las diferencias entre las tasas de fertilidad y mortalidad y las proporciones de dependencia correspondientes entre regiones y a través del tiempo. Luego se emplea un panel de 96 países durante el período de 1965 a 1995 para descomponer las diferencias de las tasas de fertilidad entre países desarrollados y en desarrollo, y las diferencias de fertilidad entre 1960 y 1995 en varias regiones en desarrollo y 22 países individuales de la región de América Latina y el Caribe. Estas descomposiciones indican que las principales correlaciones de las diferencias de fertilidad a través del espacio y el tiempo son la escolaridad y la salud de la mujer, y que la primera tiene más que ver con la diferencia de fertilidad entre regiones/países en un momento dado, mientras que la segunda tiene más que ver con bajas de fertilidad en el tiempo. Esto sugiere que es posible que se haya exagerado la importancia de la relación de una mayor escolaridad de la mujer en comparación con la escolaridad de la mujer en la obra publicada, la cual se fundamenta en gran medida en relaciones de inferencia longitudinal de datos representativos. Number 4183 1999-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-406&pub_file_name=pubWP-406.pdf application/pdf Suzanne Duryea Jere R. Behrman Miguel Székely

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40952019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se trata la gama de factores que pueden estimular un mayor desarrollo del sector institucional interno mediante medidas de reforma de los sistemas de pensiones. El desarrollo del sector institucional de las economías de mercados emergentes se compara con las experiencias de los países miembros de la OCDE. La atención se concentra en los factores claves que han venido (y siguen) impulsando el crecimiento de las actividades de los inversionistas institucionales de la OCDE y el efecto de los inversionistas institucionales en los mercados bursátiles. Number 4095 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-359&pub_file_name=pubWP-359.pdf application/pdf Hans J. Blommestein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47382019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the role played by policy instruments in access to housing finance by low-income households. It also analyzes the impact of housing credit and subsidies on both the quality of life and the quality of dwelling of the beneficiaries. Using the Quality of Life Surveys conducted in Colombia in 2003 and 2008, the study finds that policy instruments aimed at easing access of low-income households to affordable housing such as subsidies and loan guarantees have played a modest role in increasing the use of mortgages as a source of funding. Despite this, subsidies were found to have had a significant impact on both the quality of dwelling and the quality of life. Therefore, this paper suggests promoting the use of both instruments by improving their design and targeting. Number 4738 2011-08 D61 H81 I30 I31 I32 I38 O17 R20 R28 R31 R38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36376895 application/pdf Maria Angelica Arbelaez Carolina Camacho Deisy Johanna Fajardo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41092019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se analizan las repercusiones de la reciente oleada de apertura comercial y reforma económica sobre el empleo. Se emplean cuatro medidas alternativas de apertura y cuatro medidas del tipo de cambio real para cuantificar las repercusiones de las reformas del comercio internacional sobre la manufactura y el empleo en la economía en general. Las reformas comerciales han tenido un efecto negativo aunque pequeño en el crecimiento del empleo a través de toda una gama de especificaciones. Este efecto se ha visto reforzado por la revalorización del tipo de cambio real. Number 4109 1998-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-366&pub_file_name=pubWP-366.pdf application/pdf Carmen Pagés-Serra carmenpag@iadb.org Gustavo Márquez gustavoma@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43262019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se pone a prueba la eficiencia de diversas estructuras de propiedad de instituciones bancarias, en términos de su capacidad de atender sectores manufactureros específicos que necesitan crédito. Hallamos que los bancos propiedad del Estado no desempeñan un papel significativo en el desarrollo de industrias que dependan más del financiamiento externo o que tengan menos activos tangibles que constituir en garantía, o ambas cosas. Number 4326 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-483&pub_file_name=pubWP-483.pdf application/pdf Arturo Galindo arturog@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint During the past decade, structural polices in the region have been aimed increasingly at improving economic efficiency and reducing government interference in economic decisions. The effects of this shift have not yet been accurately evaluated due to the lack of systematic measurements of the magnitude of structural reforms. The aim of this document is to summarize the most characteristic features of the reform process during the past decade and to propose a method for quantifying the state of structural policies Number 4074 1997-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-348&pub_file_name=pubWP-348.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@oadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20122019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper constructs a baseline and pursues an overall impact evaluation of the PETT (Programa Especial de Titulación de Tierras), an ambitious rural titling program created in Peru in 1992. The general evaluation of impacts on farmers shows a picture of not many positive effects, at least in the short period of the evaluation (2004-2006) and for a limited sample of farmers located in the Coast and Sierra regions. On average, most income variables (and income composition) do not seem to be impacted by titling, and there are no detectable effects on investments (except for permanent pasture in the Sierra) or other outcome variables, such as credit, land markets, or land conflicts. However, this general picture hides important impacts that may occur for some groups of farmers, or for farmers facing different constraints in the pre-intervention stage. Given the limitations, we investigated in more detail two important channels that are behind the potential impacts of rural titling programs: credit access and use of land rental markets. Number 2012 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-152&pub_file_name=pubCSI-152.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Zegarra Javier Escobal Ursula Aldana

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30522019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The purpose of this study is to understand how public and private investments in health in Colombia are related to future earnings of individuals. The returns to good health of individuals and the determinants of the health production function are analyzed. The magnitude of the returns to having good health status is identified through the direct effect of health variables on earnings of individuals. Regional (rural-urban) and gender aspects are considered separately. The significant IV estimates showed that one more day of disability decreased male rural earnings by 33% and female by 13%, that having a disability in a given month decreased the earnings of an urban male by 28% and by 14% for an urban female, and that having one more centimeter of stature increased urban female earnings by 6. 9% and urban male earnings by 8%. These returns to height are much larger than those found in other countries and reveal that investments in nutrition are as important as investments in education for future increases in productivity and growth. Estimations of health production functions showed that it would be desirable to increase social security coverage in rural areas in order to see a lower incidence or duration of illness in these regions. However, in urban areas, where the system of social security is more developed, social security may increase the tendency to report illness. In general, wealthier individuals tend to have better health and the interaction between non-labor income of the individual and adequate housing affects positively the health status of individuals. Policies oriented to increase the coverage of basic services in households, such as electricity, potable water or sewage, have a negligible effect on height and, through height, on productivity. Policies oriented to provide more adequate housing translate into better health conditions and productivity for individuals. Number 3052 1999-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-354&pub_file_name=pubR-354.pdf application/pdf Jairo Núñez Rocio Ribero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) This work analyses the case of the deepening of mortgage lending in Argentina in the 1990s and compares it with the failure of the 1980s. It shows that macroeconomic stability determines the development of the market and that a rapid takeoff can be achieved with the appropriate legal and market institutions (competition between banks and dollar contracts). The real price of property, and unemployment influence the performance of the market, which expands at the rate of the increase in the capacity available for bank loans. Mortgages successfully competed with the other fund applications offered by the banks because of their capacity to diversify risks and their guarantee of repayment. Recently, a serious macroeconomic crisis led to a run of defaults on contracts which jeopardized the right to recover mortgages. The reconstruction of the market is expected to be very slow, given the experience of the 1980s. The process will probably consist of creating a currency of account for the denomination of the contracts, implementation of capital market instruments as an alternative to the bank instruments, and improved information, in order to reduce transaction costs and connect demand with investors interested in the mortgage business. Number 4351 2004-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-498&pub_file_name=pubWP-498.pdf application/pdf Marcela Cristini Ramiro Moya

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper reviews developments in Europe from the eve of the introduction of the euro through the euro crisis. The paper begins with a discussion of the tax reform agenda. Although there are differences in the literature on specific taxes, and while European countries vary in their preferred levels of taxation, there is general consensus on the shape reforms should take. The paper then discusses the evolution of tax systems with the overall agenda in mind. It is found that overall revenue levels were broadly stable until just before the crisis, but marginal rates in corporate and top personal income declined almost continuously. During the crisis, however, this trend ended, with countries in the greatest fiscal difficulties raising tax rates and tax burdens. The last section provides a short analysis of why there were reforms in some countries but not others. Key variables include tax competition among member states, partisanship, underlying preferences in the population for redistribution, and the number of partisan veto players. Number 4777 2012-05 H21 H22 H24 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36875319 application/pdf Mark Hallerberg

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se emplea un nuevo conjunto de datos para analizar las respuestas de los hogares a las sacudidas adversas de los ingresos en siete países latinoamericanos. Los resultados demuestran que: (i) los hogares responden a las sacudidas del ingreso principalmente aumentando su participación en la fuerza laboral, vendiendo activos y recortando inversiones en su capital humano; (ii) las familias pobres son las que tienen más probabilidades de sufrir las repercusiones de las sacudidas del ingreso, y (iii) las familias de clase media baja tienen más probabilidades de recortar la inversión en el capital humano y mudarse al exterior al encarar una sacudida adversa del ingreso. Estos resultados, tomados en su conjunto, brindan una amplia justificación para la existencia de sistemas de seguridad social con fondos públicos dirigidas a los pobres. Number 4274 2001-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-455&pub_file_name=pubWP-455.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Gaviria

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45512019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This document analyzes the results of a Web-based survey conducted by the Research Department to assess how the IDB is viewed by political and corporate leaders in the region. The questionnaire included 31 questions that compared the IDB to the IMF, World Bank, CAF, BCIE and CDB. The sample includes the responses of 336 representatives from the 26 Latin American and Caribbean IDB member countries. In general, the IDB has a better image than the other multilateral organizations in understanding development problems and contributing to their solutions. Its main comparative advantage is in the design of social service projects (education, health and social security). The IDB also is clearly perceived to outperform its peers in public sector modernization and infrastructure projects. The IDB’s weakest areas are related to its efficiency (lengthy loan approvals) and efforts to help discipline macroeconomic and other policies. Respondents believe that all international organizations should expand their technical assistance and knowledge activities not tied to projects or loans. For the IDB, the survey results also assign a high priority to increasing projects in social areas. Number 4551 2007-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-622&pub_file_name=pubWP-622.pdf application/pdf Marina Bassi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46062019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Healthcare services are more widespread in Latin America and the Caribbean today than 50 years ago, yet this availability is not necessarily reflected in popular perceptions. This study documents the expansion of healthcare services in the Region in terms of medically-trained professionals, service utilization, and insurance eligibility. It finds that people in countries with more doctors have a more positive view of access to healthcare and greater confidence in the healthcare system. However, other factors intervene in this relationship between perceptions and objective indicators, such as the strength of local social networks and wealth. As a consequence of rising expectations, differential access and continuing discontent, public policy can be driven by factors that are least likely to improve the population's health. Health Care, Health Financing, Access, Happiness, Health Policy, Latin America, Caribbean Number 4606 2009-01 I18 I11 N96 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-662&pub_file_name=pubWP-662.pdf application/pdf William Savedoff

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47332019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In the last three decades, the supply of housing in Argentina has not kept pace with demand. This study analyzes the main drivers of Argentina’s housing market and relates them to the macroeconomic environment in order to advance a policy agenda for housing policy reform. The demand for housing was calculated and tenure choice was analyzed. Structural characteristics affecting Argentina’s housing market include the high concentration of the urban population in a few large metropolitan areas, the association of urban poverty with the housing deficit, and overcrowding. The mortgage market lost its appeal following the 2001-02 crisis due to widespread breaches of contract legitimized through protective legislation (still in place), insufficient long-term financing, and high inflation. The housing deficit could be eliminated in five to eight years if well-coordinated policy initiatives to develop the mortgage market and provide low-income housing were adopted under a decentralized, demand-driven, subsidized program. Number 4733 2011-09 O54 R21 R23 R28 R30 R31 R38 R58 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36383741 application/pdf Marcela Cristini Ramiro Moya Guillermo Bermudez

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43502019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente estudio tiene como finalidad documentar la evolución del mercado de crédito hipotecario en Perú durante los últimos dos decenios y, sobre esta base, analizar y comprender los factores económicos-financieros e institucionales que han limitado o promovido su crecimiento durante este período. El documento está dividido en cinco secciones. En la primera, se describe la evolución del crédito hipotecario en los últimos dos decenios en el marco de la política económica y habitacional aplicada por los diferentes gobiernos durante este período. En la segunda, se describen los programas que actualmente ejecuta el Estado para el financiamiento de viviendas de interés social. En la tercera, se analiza la situación actual del mercado de crédito hipotecario. En la cuarta, se presenta un análisis del sistema actual de constitución y ejecución de garantías y el impacto que tiene el funcionamiento de éste en el desarrollo del mercado de crédito hipotecario. Finalmente, se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones de políticas orientadas a contribuir a la expansión y estabilidad de este mercado Number 4350 2003-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-497&pub_file_name=pubWP-497.pdf application/pdf Hugo Eyzaguirre Carlos Calderón Seminario

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Using a sample of 32 developed and developing countries we analyze the empirical characteristics of Sudden Stops in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their occurrence. We find that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations accompanied by Sudden Stops are basically an emerging market (EM) phenomenon. Sudden Stops seem to come in bunches, grouping together countries that are different in many respects. However, countries are similar in that they remain vulnerable to large RER fluctuations. This may be the case because countries are forced to make large adjustments in the absorption of tradable goods, and/or because the size of dollar liabilities in the banking system (i. e. , domestic liability dollarization, or DLD) is large. Openness, understood as a large supply of tradable goods that reduces leverage over the current account deficit, in combination with DLD, is a key determinant of the probability of Sudden Stops. The relationship between Openness and DLD in the determination of the probability of Sudden Stops is highly non-linear, implying that the interaction of high current account leverage and high dollarization may be a dangerous cocktail. Number 4367 2004-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-509&pub_file_name=pubWP-509.pdf application/pdf Guillermo A. Calvo Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Luis Fernando Mejía

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores the characteristics of the political economy process that conditioned the scope and success of the combination of fiscal reforms before and after Colombia’s 1991 constitutional reforms. Using formal analysis of reforms and interviews with actors, reforms in taxation, decentralization, the budgetary process and pensions are examined in times of political crisis, economic crisis, and economic boom. The results generally confirm the hypothesis that increased political fragmentation and limited unilateral executive power after the 1991 reforms restricted the extent of reforms, particularly in tax law. Nonetheless, the enactment of piecemeal reforms was encouraged by crisis conditions. Policymaking process, Political economy, Structural reform, Colombia Number 4674 2010-05 H20 H71 H77 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-WP-181&pub_file_name=pubIDB-WP-181.pdf application/pdf Mauricio Olivera Monica Pachon Guillermo Perry

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43292019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Critics of privatization argue that poor labor force restructuring is a key concern and that governments should establish better retrenchment programs. Using new data from a random sample of 400 companies in the world, we test competing theories about the wisdom of retrenchment programs and their effect on prices paid by buyers and re-hiring policies by private owners after privatization. Our results show that adverse selection plagues retrenchment programs carried out by governments before privatization. Controlling for endogeneity, several labor retrenchment policies yield a negative impact on net privatization prices. In confirmation of the adverse selection argument, various types of voluntary downsizing lead to a higher frequency of re-hiring of the same workers by the new private owners. Compulsory skill-based programs are the only type of program that is marginally associated with higher prices and lower re-hiring rates after privatization, but the political and economic costs of this policy may make it somewhat impractical. A qualified “do not intervene” appears to be the safest bet with respect to labor retrenchment before privatization. Number 4329 2003-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-485&pub_file_name=pubWP-485.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of attending a child day care center on early childhood development (ECD) in Chile, examining child development from a multi-dimensional perspective. The potential endogeneity associated with the parental decision of sending children to day care centers (or preschools) is addressed. Additionally, unobserved heterogeneity is interpreted as (latent) abilities. This approach provides a unifying framework combining parental decisions, children’s endowments, and child care characteristics. The results of the study suggest that: (i) cognitive and socioemotional test scores from children younger than two are too noisy to be analyzed; (ii) analysis of enrollment in child care centers for children older than two reveals significant effects of family background, unobserved abilities, the local availability of centers, and local capacity; and (iii) enrollment in child care centers seems to boost cognitive development among children older than two. Number 4723 2011-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36213534 application/pdf Gregory Veramendi Sergio Urzua

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30992019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Problems of `soft budget` constraints in intergovernmental relationships are currently at the frontier of research in local public economics. This paper reviews the Italian experience in the field, starting from the mid-1970s up to the present period, compares it with that of other countries, and uses it to comment upon the state of the literature. The paper argues that the soft budget constraint problem has been a rampant one in Italian local public finance, generating efficiency losses, lack of political accountability and undermining the soundness of public finances. The paper inquires into the causes and possible solutions to the problem, and in particular describes and comments upon the decentralization process of the 1990s. Finally, the Italian debate on fiscal federalism of the 1990s is also reviewed, arguing that some of the suggestions of this debate may be of interest more generally. Number 3099 2000-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-398&pub_file_name=pubR-398.pdf application/pdf Massimo Bordignon

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper surveys the recent literature on the political economy of fiscal policy, in particular the accumulation of government debt. We examine three possible determinants of fiscal balances: opportunistic behavior by policymakers, heterogeneous fiscal preferences of either voters or politicians, and budget institutions. We focus on the contributions of the last 10 years and emphasize findings related to developing countries. We include a recent body of literature on the fiscal preferences of voters, which, interestingly, seems to suggest that voters do not favor high-spending governments. We also report some original empirical evidence. First, we test different hypotheses from the political economy literature in a simultaneous manner for a large set of both developed and developing countries. We find that less-fragmented governments and a greater ability of voters to monitor fiscal policy are related to lower deficits; the estimated effects are larger than when the two hypotheses are evaluated separately, as the existing literature does. Second, we suggest the role of the courts in the determination of fiscal policy as a promising new avenue of research, and present some suggestive novel evidence on the importance of this channel. Number 4487 2006-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-583&pub_file_name=pubWP-583.pdf application/pdf Marcela Eslava

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the determinants of fiscal performance of sub-national governments in Argentina. This will be done through analysis and examination of the overall regime of incentives, through an analysis of salient episodes of `bailout` and through cross-sectional empirical analysis. The bailout episodes to be analyzed will include mostly those that occurred in the relationship between the national and provincial governments. Of primary interest will be the process that caused the crises and how both the provinces and the federal government reacted, with an emphasis on the incentives and constraints each faced. The paper will also try to explain the actual form that the bailout takes. The empirical analysis will emphasize those determinants of bailout related to the institutional design of intergovernmental fiscal institutions. Thus, the study will have direct implications regarding the strengths and weaknesses of the current institutional framework in generating sound fiscal behavior by the different levels of government. Number 3160 2002-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-467&pub_file_name=pubR-467.pdf application/pdf Juan Pablo Nicolini Josefina Posadas Juan Sanguinetti Pablo Sanguinetti Mariano Tommasi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41742019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Financial liberalization and integration have generated disappointing results. They were supposed to set up a win-win situation: capital would flow from capital-abundant, low-return, aging industrial countries to capital-scarce, high-return, young emerging countries. Growth in receiving countries would accelerate and both giver and receiver would be happier, while everyone`s diversification opportunities improved. As a bonus, emerging market policymakers would be disciplined by losing access to a captive local financial market. Number 4174 1999-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-402&pub_file_name=pubWP-402.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Theory predicts that information sharing among lenders attenuates adverse selection and moral hazard, and can therefore increase lending and reduce default rates. We construct a new international data set on credit bureaus and public credit registers. The theoretical predictions are broadly consistent with our data. We also study why central banks often supplement private arrangements by creating public credit registers and distribution of information about borrowers` credit histories. Public intervention is more likely where creditor rights are poorly protected and private arrangements have not arisen spontaneously. Number 3069 1999-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-371&pub_file_name=pubR-371.pdf application/pdf Tullio Jappelli Marco Pagano

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In 2001, Mexico introduced a comprehensive federal housing policy package. The results have been quantitatively impressive; however, there are qualitative concerns. It is also uncertain whether current subsidy programs have negative financial implications for participating mortgage issuers, as poorer applicants with lower job stability are injected into the pool of borrowers. This paper addresses that question by analyzing a large database provided by INFONAVIT, Mexico’s principal mortgage issuer, which contains information on borrowers’ repayment behavior. It is found that borrowers who received subsidies do not show higher default rates than borrowers who received no financial assistance. Borrowers receiving subsidies actually take longer to show their first default than borrowers not receiving subsidies. Therefore, current subsidy programs do not seem to have negative financial implications for participating mortgage institutions. Number 4749 2011-11 G18 G21 G28 H81 R31 R38 R51 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36538394 application/pdf Marco Lopez-Silva Raul Abreu-Lastra Alberto Saracho-Martinez Agustin Paulin-Hutmacher

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42242019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Nuestro repaso de las principales propuestas en cuanto a la arquitectura financiera internacional actualmente en consideración brinda motivos de inquietud de que un hincapié excesivo en el mejoramiento de la estabilidad al impedir los flujos de capitales tenga consecuencias perjudiciales para el desarrollo. El crecimiento sostenible requiere de iniciativas dirigidas a subsanar los desaciertos de los mercados financieros internacionales que hacen los flujos de capitales tan pequeños e inestables. En nuestro análisis se identifica un número de iniciativas y principios alternativos para aplicarlos acertadamente, en cuanto al apoyo oficial, la participación del sector privado y reformas del marco institucional. Sin embargo, el hecho de que algunas de esas reformas eficaces conllevan riesgos financieros para los países desarrollados que brindan el apoyo contribuye a la falta de consenso. Number 4224 2000-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-428&pub_file_name=pubWP-428.pdf application/pdf Ricardo Hausmann Eduardo Fernández-Arias eduardof@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Empirical work suggests the presence of a public sector wage premium, the reasons for which are investigated in this paper. The results demonstrate a higher premium paid to women and premium decreases concurrent with skills. Job security undermines the incentive to work hard and forces the public sector to pay higher wages. Thus, the public sector wage premium can be used as an indicator of inefficiency in the public sector. Number 4176 1999-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-403&pub_file_name=pubWP-403.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47052019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente trabajo se centra en el análisis del Sistema Integrado de Información Social (SIIS) que como el registro único de beneficiarios implementado en Chile. Se describe detalladamente su operación para mejorar la estrategia de protección social. Se concluye que los datos integrados al sistema son de gran utilidad para los organismos prestadores de beneficios sociales. Por ejemplo, estos datos permiten conocerse los datos de los potenciales usuarios, les permite hacer seguimiento de ellos, evaluar los resultados e impactos de los programas para el beneficio de la población necesitada. Number 4705 2011-01 H83 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-TN-183&pub_file_name=pubIDB-TN-183_esp.pdf application/pdf Francisco Covarrubias Ignacio Irarrazaval

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3692019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper assesses the effects of the Colombian Unemployment Subsidy (US), which includes benefits as well as training for some recipients. Using regression discontinuity and matching differences-in-differences estimators, the study finds that participation in the labor market, earnings of beneficiaries, and household income do not increase, and for some populations decrease during the 18 months after leaving the US program. Enrollment in formal health insurance falls. Effects on male heads of household include reductions in their earnings, decreases in their labor participation, and increases in their unemployment rates. The study also finds a small though statistically significant positive effect on beneficiaries' school attendance, but none on their children's weight or height at birth. The results are sensitive to the type of training that beneficiaries receive. Overall, the program serves more as a mechanism for smoothing consumption and providing social assistance than for increasing labor market efficiency. Number IDB-WP-369 2013-05 D12 H31 J38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37809530 application/pdf Carlos Medina Jairo Nunez Jorge Andres Tamayo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:10002019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente trabajo tiene dos objetivos: formular un diagnóstico de la situación de competitividad de la economía ecuatoriana, y presentar una propuesta acerca de las áreas prioritarias en las que debe concentrarse la política pública en el próximo quinquenio (2003-2008) para elevar el grado de competitividad de las empresas del país. La competitividad del país se enfrenta con retos de largo y corto plazo. Los de largo plazo son tres: i) la posible sobredependencia de las exportaciones petroleras y la consiguiente pérdida de competitividad para los productos no petroleros; ii) que el marco institucional del régimen monetario de la dolarización esté todavía incompleto y que el sistema financiero quede vulnerable al patrón clásico de euforia financiera seguida de pánico, crisis financiera y colapso del sistema financiero; iii) que haya un escalamiento --o agravamiento-- de la inestabilidad política del tipo que pueda dar origen a un empeoramiento sustancial y permanente del clima de confianza para la inversión productiva. También existen dos retos graves que requieren atención más urgente: i) la inestabilidad jurídica, factor que mina la confianza de los inversionistas nacionales y extranjeros; y ii) La ausencia de una infraestructura física productiva suficiente y operada de una manera eficiente. Con base en estas conclusiones, la agenda de temas cruciales para que Ecuador eleve su competitividad contiene las siguientes tareas prioritarias: i) reducir la inestabilidad política; ii) eliminar la inestabilidad jurídica que erosiona el clima de inversión; iii) hacer un esfuerzo de transformación estructural de la economía que haga posible reducir los efectos de la enfermedad holandesa; iv) completar el marco institucional de la dolarización por medio de la creación de una institucionalidad de política fiscal favorable a la disciplina fiscal y del desarrollo de las instituciones que promuevan y protejan la estabilidad del sistema financiero; y v) mejorar la infraestructura física productiva. Number 1000 2003-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=C-101&pub_file_name=pubC-101.pdf application/pdf Alberto Melo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44622019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés) La base de datos se puede acceder en: http://www. iadb. org/res/pub_desc. cfm?pub_id=DBA-005 Number 4462 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-561&pub_file_name=pubWP-561.pdf application/pdf Dany Jaimovich Ugo Panizza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:20112019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize’s public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize’s debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies. Number 2011 2008-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=CSI-146&pub_file_name=pubCSI-146.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Borensztein Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Patricio Valenzuela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45322019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper proposes an extension of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition from two to a continuum of comparison groups. The proposed decomposition is then estimated for the case of racial wage differences in urban Peru, exploiting a novel data set that allows the capturing of mestizaje (racial mixtures). Number 4532 2007-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-612&pub_file_name=pubWP-612.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43082019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las fricciones financieras son un elemento central de la mayoría de los modelos que ha propuesto la obra publicada sobre los mercados emergentes para explicar el fenómeno de las paradas repentinas. A la fecha, son pocos los estudios que han procurado analizar las implicaciones cuantitativas de esos modelos e integrarlos a un marco de equilibrio del ciclo económico de las economías emergentes. En este trabajo se analizan esos estudios, considerándoselos variaciones de la capacidad de pago y de la disposición a pagar en un marco que ocasionalmente incorpora limitantes del endeudamiento al modelo del ciclo económico real de economías pequeñas que a veces resultan de obligatorio acatamiento. Una característica que tienen en común los diversos modelos es que los agentes toman en cuenta el riesgo de paradas repentinas futuras en sus planes óptimos, de modo que las asignaciones de equilibrio y los precios se distorsionan incluso cuando las limitantes crediticias no son obligatorias. Las paradas repentinas pertenecen al equilibrio competitivo de precios flexibles y únicos de esos modelos, que ocurren en una región determinada del espacio del Estado en el que sacudidas negativas hacen obligatorias las limitantes al endeudamiento. Los efectos resultantes no lineales implican que resolver los modelos requiere métodos numéricos no lineales, los cuales se describen en el sondeo. Los resultados demuestran que los modelos pueden arrojar paradas repentinas poco frecuentes con efectos negativos de la cuenta corriente y recesiones profundas enmarcadas en ciclos económicos más suaves. Aún así, las investigaciones en este campo se hallan en una etapa incipiente y este estudio procura estimular nuevos trabajos en esta área. Number 4308 2002-09 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-473&pub_file_name=pubWP-473.pdf application/pdf Cristina Arellano Enrique Mendoza

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46142019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El éxito de un pacto fiscal se mide por el grado en que incorpore a los diversos grupos sociales en las discusiones, el cumplimiento y la vigilancia de ciertos acuerdos sobre la forma como se financia el Estado y se utilizan los recursos públicos. Partiendo de los factores políticos que pueden explicar las estructuras fiscales de América Latina, este artículo muestra la necesidad de alcanzar pactos fiscales, discute los incentivos que influyen en su viabilidad y propone prioridades de política fiscal y de reforma institucional para mejorar sus posibilidades de éxito. Pacto fiscal, política fiscal, economía política, sistemas políticos, América Latina Number 4614 2008-12 E62 H61 P16 N46 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-650&pub_file_name=pubWP-650_esp.pdf application/pdf Eduardo Lora eduardol@iadb.org

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45232019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Los desastres naturales son una importante fuente de vulnerabilidad en la región del Caribe. A pesar de ser una de las regiones del mundo con más altas probabilidades de desastres naturales, el Caribe tiene los niveles más bajos de cobertura de seguro. Este articulo examina la vulnerabilidad de las finanzas publicas de Belice debido a la alta ocurrencia de huracanes. El artículo estudia el potencial de instrumentos de aseguración que podrían reducir la vulnerabilidad a estos desastres naturales. Este estudio encuentra que el seguro de Riesgos Catastróficos mejora la sostenibilidad de la deuda del gobierno de Belice. La metodología aplicada por el estudio hace posible estimar el nivel apropiado de cobertura de seguro apropiado. Para el caso de Belice, es como máximo, US$120 millones por año. Organizaciones internacionales pueden jugar un papel importante en asistir a los países a sobrellevar las distorsiones de los mercados de seguros, como también en ayudar a disminuir la resistencia política interna contra la aplicación de esta póliza. Number 4523 2007-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-607&pub_file_name=pubWP-607.pdf application/pdf Eduardo A. Cavallo cavalloe@iadb.org Patricio Valenzuela Eduardo Borensztein

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47602019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The recent financial crisis has forced a rethink of banking regulation and supervision and the role of financial innovation. This paper develops a model where prudent banks may signal their type through high capital ratios. Capital regulation may ensure separation in equilibrium, but deposit insurance will tend to increase the level of capital required. If supervision detects risky behavior ex ante then it is complementary to capital regulation. However, financial innovation may erode supervisors’ ability to detect risk and capital levels should then be higher. Regulators, however, may not be aware their capacities have been undermined. The paper argues for a four-prong policy response with higher bank capital ratios, enhanced supervision, limits to the use of complex financial instruments and Coco’s. The results may support the institutional arrangements proposed recently in the United Kingdom. Number 4760 2011-12 D82 G21 G38 L51 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36610137 application/pdf Andrew Powell andrewp@iadb.org Marcus Miller Antonia Maier

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El presente trabajo recoge los resultados de una investigación sobre la organización industrial de la escuela básica en la zona pobre. Comenzando con un análisis apretado del impacto del proceso de urbanización sobre un sistema educativo pobremente atendido, y el tipo de segmentación del mercado que tal desatención provoca, entonces, se intenta aprender y en cierta medida comparar cómo los cuatro principales tipos de escuelas logran mantener el proceso educativo en medio de muy serias precariedades, y cuáles son los resultados escolares de ese proceso. Finalmente. En su esfuerzo de recapitulación, se intenta poner de relieve cómo empujada por la precariedad, la escuela de la zona marginal ha ido encontrando respuestas que vistas en su conjunto podrían sustentar una organización industrial más eficiente del subsistema educativo urbano. Number 3003 1997-11 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-304&pub_file_name=pubR-304.pdf application/pdf Ramon Flores

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43492019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Available only in Spanish) The purpose of this study is to document the trend in the mortgage loan market in Peru in the last 20 years and, on that basis, analyze and understand the economic-financial and institutional factors that have limited or promoted its growth during this period. The document is divided into five sections. The first describes the trend in mortgage lending in the last two decades in the framework of the economic and housing policy applied by the various governments during this period. The second describes the programs that the State is currently executing to finance low-cost housing. The third analyses the current situation of the mortgage loan market. The fourth analyzes the current system of mortgage security and foreclosure and its impact on the development of the mortgage loan market. The last section contains the conclusions and recommendations on policies that contribute to the expansion and stability of this market. Number 4349 2003-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-497&pub_file_name=pubWP-497.pdf application/pdf Hugo Eyzaguirre Carlos Calderón Seminario

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41902019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper argues that there is no country in Latin America where we can confidently say that income inequality improved during the 1990s. We document this fact for the 15 countries where comparable household surveys, covering most of the population, are available. What we observe are genuine distributive changes, which are being driven neither by differences in the characteristics of the data nor by the way in which the data is treated. In 10 of the countries, the lack of progress is driven by increases in inequality among the first nine deciles. In the remaining 5, the reason is a greater concentration among the richest 10% of the population. We also observe that in 7 countries, the dynamics among individuals with 14 years or more of schooling are the main reason why income distribution has not improved in the 1990s. However, the lack of progress in income distribution is not exclusive to this region. We compare Latin America internationally and find that, with few exceptions, inequality has increased less in this region than in developed countries and in Eastern Europe. Number 4190 1999-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-410&pub_file_name=pubWP-410.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely Marianne Hilgert

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47682019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the problem of sub-national revenue mobilization in Peru and proposes several policy reforms to improve collection performance while maintaining a sound revenue structure. In particular, the paper analyzes the current revenues of regional and municipal governments and identifies the main priorities for reform. Among the most important problems are the acute inequalities and inefficiencies associated with revenue sharing from extractive industries. These revenues represent a significant share of sub-national budgets and currently they are distributed without consideration of the relative expenditure needs or fiscal capacity of sub-national units. In order to address this problem, the paper proposes the incorporation of a measure of fiscal capacity into the formula of the FONCOMUN, the municipal equalization transfer program. Other reforms explored include the reassignment of revenue sources between municipal provincial and district governments and the assignment of new taxes to regional governments. Number 4768 2012-03 H11 H21 H71 H73 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36760449 application/pdf Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza Jorge Martinez-Vazquez Cristian Sepulveda

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-3922019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper explores whether the extent of informality in a sector affects a firm's investment decision directly or indirectly through a credit availability channel. The dataset used in the estimation of the econometric models consists of an unbalanced panel of Uruguayan firms for the period 1997-2008. The results suggest that financial restrictions affect investment decisions in Uruguay, as an increase in credit to the private sector translates into higher investment rates. A one percentage point increase in overall credit growth translates into a one half percent increase in investment rates. It is also found that, although there is no direct effect of informality on the firm investment decision, there is an indirect effect through the borrowing channel. More specifically, financial restrictions reduce the amount of investment undertaken by Uruguayan firms, the effect being smaller if the firm operates in a sector with lower informality. Number IDB-WP-392 2013-03 E26 G21 O16 O4 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37634375 application/pdf Nestor Gandelman Alejandro Rasteletti

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El propósito principal de este trabajo es el de revisar los factores y la dinámica que toma la internacionalización financiera, como también las acciones que debiera tomar un país para prepararse para maximizar los beneficios netos de esta integración. Finalmente, se evalúan también las acciones que debieran tomar los gobiernos para facilitar una integración ordenada y gradual de los sectores financieros. Number 4097 1997-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-360&pub_file_name=pubWP-360.pdf application/pdf Vittorio Corbo

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:30952019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the effects of several aspects of labor legislation that were modified through successive waves of reform since 1991. Firing costs diminished sharply through the progressive elimination of job security regulations, the introduction of temporary contracts and changes in the severance payment structure. Simultaneously, non-wage labor costs increased. To assess the effect of these changes on the level of formal employment, we estimate labor demand functions. We use a pseudo-panel data set for ten formal sectors observed bimonthly between 1987 and 1997 and panel data sets at the establishment level for three sub-periods. Both at the sector and establishment level, labor costs have a negative and significant effect on labor demand. The coefficient of our measure of firing costs, the expected severance payments, is negative and significant, and its magnitude decreases in the post reform period. After the reforms, the price and output elasticities are larger and there is evidence of a speedier labor demand adjustment. To assess the effect of regulations changes on turnover we use a series of repeated cross sections household surveys for Metropolitan Lima and calculate mean tenure using censored data. We find evidence that mean tenure fell since 1992. The fall is larger and more statistically significant for formal salaried workers than for informal workers. Using censored and complete employment spells from the Peruvian Living Standards Measurement Surveys we compare employment duration data for the formal and informal sectors using empirical hazards and parametric estimations of hazard functions. After the reforms, there is an increase in the hazard function for formal wage earners relative to the hazard function of informal sector wage earners. We find higher hazards for informal, private, temporary and blue-collar workers. Number 3095 2000-05 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-394&pub_file_name=pubR-394.pdf application/pdf Jaime Saavedra-Chanduví Máximo Torero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The review of Peruvian exchange rate policies during the last fifty years prompts several questions. First, why did the government choose some exchange rate regimes over others? Second, why did governments target certain exchange rate levels? Third, why, in certain episodes, did governments refuse to abandon an exchange rate peg? Number 3120 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-422&pub_file_name=pubR-422.pdf application/pdf Alberto Pascó-Font Piero Ghezzi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:48102019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper investigates the international spillovers of housing demand shocks on real economic activity. The global economy is modelled using a Global VAR, with a novel house price data set for both advanced and emerging economies. The impulse responses to an identified US housing demand shock confirm the existence of strong international spillovers to advanced economies. In contrast, the response of some major emerging economies is not significantly different from zero. The paper also shows that synchronized housing demand shocks in advanced economies reinforce each other and have a deep and long-lasting impact on economic activity. Number 4810 2012-10 C32 E44 F44 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=37204335 application/pdf Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40332019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) América Latina es inestable de dos a tres veces más que las economías industrializadas. Es más inestable que cualquier región distinta de África y el Medio Oriente. El acceso de América Latina a los mercados financieros internacionales es esporádico y a menudo desaparece justo cuando podría ser más valioso. Number 4033 1996-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-326&pub_file_name=pubWP-326.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann Roberto Perotti Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44992019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo propone un marco integrado para analizar conjuntamente dos aspectos claves: el surgimiento de desequilibrios mundiales y la motivación preventiva de la acumulación de reservas. Los modelos estándar de equilibrio general pueden anticipar superávits reducidos de la cuenta corriente en mercados emergentes si éstos encaran un mayor nivel de riesgo que EE. UU. Pero con una pronunciada aversión a las pérdidas en los mercados emergentes, los ahorros motivados por la precaución pueden generar “desequilibrios mundiales” considerables, especialmente si no hay suficiente capacidad mundial de “aseguramiento”. En principio, tasas de interés real más bajas permiten asegurar que la demanda agregada iguale la oferta a nivel mundial. Aunque la abundancia excesiva de ahorros preventivos parece ser de naturaleza temporal, una corrección provocada por una “parada repentina” de los movimientos de capitales hacia EE. UU. podría conducir a un “aterrizaje accidentado”. Number 4499 2007-12 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-593&pub_file_name=pubWP-593.pdf application/pdf Marcus Miller Lei Zhang

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint It has been shown that the social security system and other sorts of government transfers have helped poor elderly people, such as widows, to live alone in the U. S. This paper investigates whether government financial support contributed to the increase in the probability of the vulnerable elderly living alone in Latin American countries as well. Specifically, the countries that in the 1980s experienced government reforms favorable to the vulnerable elderly, Mexico and Uruguay, are examined. It is concluded that the improvement of educational attainment was mainly responsible for helping the elderly poor to live alone in rural areas in Mexico, and not the government system. On the other hand, in Uruguay, for unmarried elderly females, the increase in social security income explains most of the increase in the probability of living alone. Number 4231 2000-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-432&pub_file_name=pubWP-432.pdf application/pdf Naoko Shinkai

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:43962019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) A pesar de haber aplicado reformas estructurales de fondo en los últimos años, los países centroamericanos no han podido alcanzar un crecimiento vigoroso y estable. En este trabajo se trata de determinar si la falta de innovación y de adopción de tecnologías se puede considerar uno de los motivos principales de este decepcionante resultado y, de ser así, en qué medida. El trabajo comienza por documentar que la adopción de tecnologías e innovación es, de hecho, muy baja, y luego pasa a un análisis más cualitativo y ecléctico basado en entrevistas y estudios de casos específicos, para tratar de entender los motivos. Se analizan cuatro hipótesis: debilidad de los derechos de propiedad intelectual, escasa competencia, falta de financiamiento y bajos niveles de preparación. La conclusión a la que se llega es que las dos últimas de esas cuatro hipótesis pueden ser especialmente pertinentes para la región. El trabajo concluye con varias recomendaciones de políticas. Number 4396 2005-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-525&pub_file_name=pubWP-525.pdf application/pdf Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Previous studies indicate that Colombian farmers make production decisions based on informal sources of information, such as family and neighbors or tradition. In this paper we randomize recipients of price and weather information using text messages (SMS technology). We find that relative to those farmers who did not receive SMS information, the farmers who did were more likely to provide market price information, had a narrower dispersion in the expected price of their crops, and had a significant reduction in crop loss. Farmers also report that text messages provide useful information, especially in regards to sale prices. We do not find, however, a significant difference between the treated and untreated farmers in the actual sale price, nor changes in farmers’ revenues or household expenditures. Number 4720 2011-05 D62 Q11 Q12 Q13 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36191904 application/pdf Adriana Camacho Emily Conover

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44772019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper develops a model of sovereign debt where governments are myopic. Instead of focusing on the incentives to repay, as in most of the theoretical literature on the topic (which assumes implicitly that governments have long-term objectives), I therefore consider that governments always repay when they can, but also borrow as much as possible. without paying attention to the burden of future repayments. The pattern of debt is then only determined by the willingness of international investors to lend to the country. I characterize the Rational Expectations Equilibria of the credit market. These equilibria behave like rational bubbles: international investors lend a lot because they anticipate that other investors will lend again in the future. Capital flows are procyclical: the government borrows a fixed proportion of its income until a sudden stop occurs, generating default and an economic crisis. I suggest possible remedies to the high volatility of public expenditures that is generated by such borrowing patterns. Number 4477 2006-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-573&pub_file_name=pubWP-573.pdf application/pdf Jean-Charles Rochet

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31032019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In Peru, a country with an astonishing variety of different ecological areas, including 84 different climate zones and landscapes, with rainforests, high mountain ranges and dry deserts, the geographical context may not be all that matters, but it could be very significant in explaining regional variations in income and welfare. The major question this paper tries to answer is: what role do geographic variables, both natural and manmade, play in explaining per capita expenditure differentials across regions within Peru? How have these influences changed over time, through what channels have they been transmitted, and has access to private and public assets compensated for the effects of an adverse geography? We have shown that what seem to be sizable geographic differences in living standards in Peru can be almost fully explained when one takes into account the spatial concentration of households with readily observable non-geographic characteristics, in particular public and private assets. In other words, the same observationally equivalent household has a similar expenditure level in one place as another with different geographic characteristics such as altitude or temperature. This does not mean, however that geography is not important but that its influence on expenditure level and growth differential comes about through a spatially uneven provision of public infrastructure. Furthermore, when we measured the expected gain (or loss) in consumption from living in one geographic region (i. e. , coast) as opposed to living in another (i. e. , highlands), we found that most of the difference in log per-capita expenditure between the highland and the coast can be accounted for by the differences in infrastructure endowments and private assets. This could be an indication that the availability of infrastructure could be limited by the geography and therefore the more adverse geographic regions are the ones with less access to public infrastructure. It is important to note that there appear to be non-geographic, spatially correlated, omitted variables that need to be taken into account in our expenditure growth model. Therefore policy programs that use regional targeting do have a rationale even if geographic variables do not explain the bulk of the difference in regional growth, once we have taken into account differentials in access to private and public assets. Number 3103 2000-07 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-404&pub_file_name=pubR-404.pdf application/pdf Máximo Torero Javier Escobal

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47072019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Esta Nota Técnica forma parte de una serie de estudios realizados en el marco del proyecto “La efectividad de las redes de protección social: el rol de los sistemas integrados de información social”. Los estudios de caso fueron realizados en el período 2007-2008. La asistencia para esta investigación fue desarrollada por Francisco Espinosa. La autora agradece las sugerencias y los detallados comentarios suministrados por Roberto Ángulo, Olga Lucía Acosta y Jaime Ramírez para la elaboración de este documento. Igualmente agradece la información proporcionada por medio de varias entrevistas por Diana Cárdenas, quien se desempeñó como Coordinadora del Grupo de Calidad de Vida (Dirección de Desarrollo Social/Departamento Nacional de Planeación, DDS/DNP), así como los aportes de información realizados por los funcionarios de dicho grupo: Lina Castaño Mesa, Esteban Granados y Mauricio Linares. Number 4707 2011-01 H83 I38 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-TN-192&pub_file_name=pubIDB-TN-192_esp.pdf application/pdf Lucia Mina Rosero

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:47762019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper examines the link between financial deepening and formalization in Peru. Using data from the National Household Survey, Bloomberg and the Central Bank of Peru Central Bank, the Cata~o, Page´s, and Rosales (2009) model is implemented at activity level (2-digits ISIC), and the Rajan and Zingales (1998) approach of sectors’ dependence on external funds is followed. The sample is divided into three firm size categories, and two formality measures are assessed. Using the accounting books specification, robust results are obtained, supporting a significant and positive effect of credit growth on formalization only for the self-employment firms category. Alternatively, using the pension enrollment specification, the channel is found positively significant only for firms with more than 10 workers; there is a smaller effect for firms with 2-10 workers. There is also a significant between effect, explaining the transition from small firms to larger firms due to greater credit availability. Number 4776 2012-05 E26 G21 O16 O4 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=36875312 application/pdf Eduardo Morón Edgar Salgado Cristhian Seminario

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:46872019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint The objective of this research agenda is to outline the issues that need to be investigated in order to produce an informed assessment of what strategies and policies Latin America and its international organizations should pursue with respect to climate change. This report makes the three following potential contributions: i) identifying actions that could be valuable but have not been highlighted; ii) advising on actions that could be ineffective and costly, given limited resources; and iii) recommending an evaluation of what elements require further analysis before objectives are translated into action. After introducing the issues involved, the report presents a simplified model to help explain the interaction of climate change with the economy. The discussion then turns to several of the most important relevant issues in terms of the model. Finally, individual items are discussed in order to construct an agenda. Climate change, Mitigation, Adaptation, Latin America and the Caribbean Number 4687 2010-10 Q54 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=IDB-TN-164&pub_file_name=pubIDB-TN-164.pdf application/pdf Omar Chisari Sebastian Galiani

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31972019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Este estudio de un caso específico de instituciones democráticas y los procesos de diseño de políticas en Venezuela forma parte de un proyecto más amplio y de ámbito regional basado en el marco teórico concebido por Spiller, Stein y Tommasi (2003). Este marco se concentra en las condiciones que promueven la cooperación política entre las principales instituciones del ámbito político con el objeto de dar continuidad a los compromisos de políticas en el tiempo. Este estudio muestra que las instituciones políticas sobre las cuales se afincó la democracia en Venezuela en los años 60 fueron creadas deliberadamente para generar un equilibrio cooperativo con poca participación en el poder. Este marco institucional se caracterizó por presidentes constitucionalmente débiles y partidos políticos fuertes y centralizados. La cooperación indujo un proceso de diseño de políticas relativamente eficaz y con buenos resultados en la aplicación de las mismas. Sin embargo, un período de bonanza petrolera y sus secuelas, durante los años 70 y 80, deshizo el marco de cooperación e indujo un deterioro económico acelerado. Las reformas políticas aplicadas a finales de los años 80 para mejorar el proceso democrático, si bien en sí mismas deseables, debilitaron aún más el sistema de partidos e indujeron un proceso de diseño de políticas de muy escasa cooperación y además volátil. Las reformas políticas recientes, al aumentar la participación en el poder, han promovido una descomposición total de la cooperación y han creado un sistema político altamente polarizado. Number 3197 2006-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-507&pub_file_name=pubR-507.pdf application/pdf Francisco Monaldi Rosa Amelia González de Pacheco Richard Obuchi Michael Penfold

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41942019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper constructs a general equilibrium overlapping generation model to evaluate quantitatively how demographic transition (falling mortality and fertility rates) affects aggregate variables (wages, interest rate, output), and inter-generational welfare in closed and open economies. We perform this analysis for two economies calibrated to resemble the North (US and Europe) and Latin America. Our simulations suggest that the demographic transition could have generated income per capita growth up to 0. 5% per year in excess of steady-state growth in the past 50 years in Latin America and 0. 3% in the North. Number 4194 2000-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-412&pub_file_name=pubWP-412.pdf application/pdf Giovanni L. Violante Orazio P. Attanasio

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:42912019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint In this paper we provide an overview of the situation of the Internet in Latin America and argue that, although latecomers, Latin American countries could in principle catch up at a faster pace and a lower cost. But that will depend on the environment for innovation in the countries; in that respect, the adoption of the Internet may prove to be no different than other technological changes. The paper also discusses how the degree of innovativeness in a country helps explain the extent to which new technologies may be more effectively absorbed. What is surprising about this relationship is that it is valid even when isolating the fact that countries with better telephone infrastructure are also the ones with more Internet hosts. We found that the capacity to innovate and assimilate new technologies is not just a matter of income or infrastructure endowment. Number 4291 2002-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-464&pub_file_name=pubWP-464.pdf application/pdf Alberto Chong albertoch@iadb.org Alejandro Micco

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45312019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint El dinero se utiliza como una reserva de valor, un medio de intercambio y una unidad de cuenta. Los más recientes análisis sobre la elección de moneda en un escenario internacional se han enfocado en la denominación de reservas—el rol de reserva de valor. Sin embargo, la información pública sobre reservas es agregado y no al nivel de cada país excluyendo ciertos países. Este trabajo se enfoca en la elección de moneda para el rol de la unidad de cuenta, empleando una base de datos detallada sobre la emisión de seguridad a través de los países, tiempo y monedas. El trabajo encuentra una relación estable entre la elección de moneda y variables financieras y reales con diferente especificaciones para países desarrollados y emergentes, así como evidencia de externalidades y de persistencia y de redes de conexión. Explotando la creación del Euro, el trabajo encuentra un efecto de liquidez del Euro importante y significante al coste del dólar, especialmente en los primeros años de vida de la nueva moneda. Las estimaciones sugieren que el Euro está haciendo significante progreso al considerarse una amenaza al rol que juega el Dólar como la moneda internacional dominante. Number 4531 2007-06 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-611&pub_file_name=pubWP-611.pdf application/pdf Matteo Bobba Andrew Powell Giuseppe Della Corte

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40542019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This paper analyzes the consequences of alternative financial structures for financial efficiency and stability. The focus is on the organizational structure of banks. Alternative bank structures range from `narrow banks` to broad `universal banks. ` Each banking structure is assessed in its ability to satisfy the objectives of efficiency and stability in the financial system stability, economies of scale and scope, competition, avoiding regulatory capture, conflicts of interest and political manipulation, corporate control and management of financial distress, and monetary control. No one reform is appropriate for all countries, and no single reform guarantees that the objectives will be attained or maintained. Number 4054 1997-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-338&pub_file_name=pubWP-338.pdf application/pdf George G. Kaufman Randall S. Kroszner

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41302019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint This study is designed to help practitioners prepare and evaluate institutional reforms for education and health programs. It provides an analytic framework for use by public officials and researchers, with case studies that illustrate a wide range of actual practice, and a set of lessons learned. The framework uses the concept of "accountability" to link the broad goals of reform to the key dimensions of organizational arrangements. The case studies, based on fieldwork in Mexico and Nicaragua, demonstrate a wide variety of available policy instruments. Number 4130 1998-08 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-379&pub_file_name=pubWP-379.pdf application/pdf Alec Ian Gershberg

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40672019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En vista de los últimos resultados, la lucha contra la pobreza en América Latina ha distado de ser satisfactoria. El enfoque estándar de las agencias crediticias multiculturales seguirá siendo limitado si no hace hincapié en el papel central de la distribución, así como la acumulación de activos productivos, especialmente el capital humano. Una vez eliminadas las distorsiones fiscales y comerciales mediante reformas estructurales, niveles insuficientes de acumulación de capital humano y físico y una distribución de activos altamente sesgada son factores críticos que limitan considerablemente el crecimiento en América Latina. Políticas dirigidas a reducir las desigualdades en la acumulación de activos deben ubicarse al centro de un nuevo enfoque de la erradicación de la pobreza y de un mayor crecimiento en América Latina al inicio del nuevo siglo. Number 4067 1997-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-344&pub_file_name=pubWP-344.pdf application/pdf Nancy Birdsall Juan Luis Londoño

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45202019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Utilizando la encuesta chilena de datos de Panel CASEN 1996-2001, este trabajo analiza el impacto en los ingresos de trabajadores asalariados que se convierten en empresarios (es decir, trabajadores por cuenta propia y microempresarios). Mediante un estimador de diferencia-en-diferencias combinado con técnicas no paramétricas de matching, este estudio alivia los problemas de sesgo de selección (en rasgos observables y no observables) y crea el contrafactual de interés. Los resultados indican que las ganancias en ingresos asociadas con el cambio de trabajado asalariado a micro-empresariado son positivas, estadísticamente significativas y financieramente sustanciales. Los resultados son cualitativamente similares usando medias y medianas, sugiriendo que los impactos encontrados no son influenciados por la presencia de unos pocos "ganadores súper-estrellas". Adicionalmente, los cambios en ingresos asociados con el cambio en la dirección opuesta (es decir, de auto-empleado a trabajador asalariado) son negativos. Los resultados también sugieren interesantes diferencias de género, donde las mujeres muestran mayores ganancias que los hombres en el cambio de trabajos asalariados a empresariado y menores pérdida en el cambio en dirección opuesta. Number 4520 2007-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-605&pub_file_name=pubWP-605.pdf application/pdf Hugo Ñopo hugon@iadb.org Patricio Valenzuela

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:40272019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint (Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se tratan las maneras en que los acontecimientos macroeconómicos pueden presionar a los bancos y, en casos extremos, conducir a crisis bancarias. Estas causas macroeconómicas de la vulnerabilidad y las crisis de los bancos tienen implicaciones importantes para los regímenes regulatorios y para la política macroeconómica misma. Buena parte del análisis hace hincapié en la necesidad de fijar la política monetaria teniendo en mente la situación del sistema bancario nacional como una consideración a veces importante. Un objeto de este trabajo es promover el tratamiento de cómo mejor incorporar sistemas bancarios débiles a la gestión de la política macroeconómica. Number 4027 1996-01 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-318&pub_file_name=pubWP-318.pdf application/pdf Michael Gavin Ricardo Hausmann

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:44562019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Spreads on sovereign bonds are at an all-time low, at least since the current era of emerging economy bond markets began in the 1990s. This paper examines the current state of the international and domestic bond markets and asks whether the current favorable trends will constitute a durable change or a temporary fad and discusses what the IDB and other international financial institutions can do to help consolidate the positive trends and prevent new sudden stop episodes in Latin America. Number 4456 2006-03 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-558&pub_file_name=pubWP-558.pdf application/pdf Ugo Panizza Eduardo Borensztein Barry Eichengreen

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:41042019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint A good liability management strategy is one that helps minimize the cost of borrowing over the medium and long term. The objective is not to save the last basis point in each transaction, but rather to bring down the overall borrowing cost. This paper uses Argentina`s experience to illustrate some important elements in the design of a liability management strategy. It takes into account the specific characteristics of the Argentine capital market and of the debt instruments that are available. Number 4104 1997-10 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-364&pub_file_name=pubWP-364.pdf application/pdf Miguel A. Kiguel

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:45702019-05-14RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Este trabajo es un análisis de la pertinencia de los factores externos en el crecimiento medio trimestral del PIB durante el período de 1990 a 2006 en los siete países latinoamericanos más grandes (LAC7). Se descubre que los factores externos son el origen de una parte significativa de la variación en el crecimiento del PIB en LAC7 y que las sacudidas externas producen respuestas considerables. Igualmente, gran parte del crecimiento reciente de LAC7 se puede justificar mediante un “viento de cola” de factores externos. Se hace hincapié en la pertinencia que pueden tener estos hallazgos para la formulación de políticas. El comportamiento del crecimiento, la fortaleza o debilidad de los indicadores macroeconómicos fundamentales y los efectos de las políticas nacionales macro y micro en el crecimiento sólo se pueden evaluar adecuadamente si se eliminan primero los efectos de los factores externos. Number 4570 2008-02 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=WP-631&pub_file_name=pubWP-631.pdf application/pdf Alejandro Izquierdo alejandroi@iadb.org Randall Romero Ernesto Talvi

oai:RePEc:idb:wpaper:31282019-09-29RePEc:idb:wpaper

preprint Poverty is present in all modern societies. Even in the richest countries in the world, few would disagree that some individuals have unacceptably low living standards. [1] How to address this problem, however, is still unclear. Recently, an old debate has been revived: is the solution to achieve economic growth, or should governments actively pursue poverty reduction policies? There are basically two opposing views. One states that the income of the poor grows one for one with economic growth; therefore, policies that guarantee growth implicitly contribute to poverty reduction, and the justification for additional social policies is unclear. [2] The other view is that the incomes of the poor grow less than one for one with average income. [3] [1] If one uses a definition of poverty of 2-dollars-a-day, the proportion of poor in most developed countries turns out to be very small (around 2% of the total population). But this type of definition, which might be appropriate for developing countries, is meaningless in the context of rich countries. In the developed world, the poverty line is usually relative to the standard of living of each population. These definitions always yield poverty rates well over the absolute poverty levels. [2] Some examples are Dollar and Kraay (2000), Gallup et al. (1999), and Roemer and Gugerty (1997). [3] See for instance, Bourguignon (2001), Birdsall and De la Torre (2001) and Foster and Székely (2001 ). Number 3128 2001-04 http://www.iadb.org/research/pub_hits.cfm?pub_id=R-431&pub_file_name=pubR-431.pdf application/pdf Miguel Székely tail1_set_RePEc:idb:wpaper_amf